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New Martenson Report: Survey Says....

Sunday, April 19, 2009, 8:56 PM

There's a new Martenson Report ready for enrolled members

Link to Survey Says....


Here's a snippet:

Executive Summary

  • Beware the gap between survey data and actual economic data
  • The stock market appears to be responding to survey data, not actual data
  • Surveys contain many potential pitfalls
  • Examples of influential survey data are given
  • Tax data is a relatively reliable indicator of the true state of the economy
  • Beware the "spin"
  • The bottom is not in yet
  • Remain skeptical and bide your time wisely

The past few weeks have seen the stock market shrug off bad news and seize upon whatever glimmer of good news it could find. I am of the opinion that the stock market rally of the past six weeks is long in the tooth and built upon some highly questionable, if not patently misleading, reports. I understand the importance of consumer and investor psychology to our economy, and can even sympathize in some small way with those who spin data in an attempt to be helpful, but I still find the practice of self-deception to be distasteful.

It is my opinion that this is not the time to be lulled back into spending more, nor is it a good time to get back into the stock market, unless you are a highly skilled trader who is willing to track your positions on a minute-by-minute basis. This is a great time to lighten up on any stock or 401k positions that you might have regretted holding onto about a month ago...

One key oddity for me these past two weeks was the startling gap that appeared between so-called survey data (discussed below), which mainly surprised to the upside, and actual economic data, which mainly surprised to the downside.

This report explores that gap. My theory is that survey data is being ‘massaged' to paint a brighter picture than actually exists. If these "glimmers of life" that Obama recently referred to, or "green shoots" as Bernanke said, have you thinking of spending more money or wading back into the stock market, you especially need to read this report carefully.

 

 

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5 Comments

mstjane's picture
mstjane
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
Joined: Feb 9 2009
Posts: 28
US Oil Reserves

Chris

I just received an email with this info (source at bottom)

The U. S. Geological Service issued  a report in April('08) that only scientists and oil men knew was  coming.  It was a revised report  (hadn't been updated since '95) on how much oil was in this area of  the western 2/3 of North Dakota ; western South Dakota ; and extreme  eastern Montana ..... check THIS out:
The Bakken is the largest  domestic oil discovery since Alaska 's Prudhoe Bay , and has the  potential to eliminate all American dependence on foreign oil. The  Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates it at 503  billion

barrels.. Even if just 10% of the oil is recoverable....  at $107 a barrel, we're looking at a resource base worth more than  $5.3 trillion.

'When I first briefed legislators on this, you could  practically see their jaws hit the floor. They had no idea.' says Terry  Johnson, the Montana Legislature's financial analyst.  'This sizable  find is now the highest-producing onshoreoil field found in the past 56  years.' reports, The Pittsburgh Post Gazette.  It's a format ion  known as the Williston Basin , but is more commonly referred to as  the 'Bakken.'  And it stretches from Northern Montana, through  North Dakota and into Canada . For years, U. S. oilexploration has been  considered a dead end.  Even the 'Big Oil' companies gave up  searching for major oil wells decades ago.  However, a recent  technological breakthrough has opened up the Bakken's  massive reserves.... and we now have access of up to 500  billion barrels.  And because this is light, sweet oil,  those billions of barrels will cost Americans just $16 PER  BARREL! That's enough crude to fully fuel the American  economy for 41 years straight. And if THAT didn't throw you on the floor, then this next one should - because it's from TWO YEARS  AGO!

4/20/2006 U. S. Oil Discovery- Largest Reserve in the World!  Stansberry ReportOnline -Hidden 1,000 feet beneath the  surface of the Rocky Mountains lies the largest untapped oil reserve in  the world. It is more than 2 TRILLION barrels. On August 8, 2005  President Bush mandated its extraction.  In three and ahalf years of high oil prices none has been extracted.  With this mother load of oil why are we still fighting  over off-shore drilling?

They reported this  stunning news:  have more oil inside our borders, t han all the  other proven reservesWe

on earth.Here are the official estimates:8-times as much oil as Saudi Arabia 18-times as much oil as  Iraq 21-times as much oil as  Kuwait 22-times as much oil as  Iran 500-times as much oil as Yemen and it's all right here in the  Western United States

James Bartis, lead researcher with the study says  we've got more oil in this very compact area than the entire

Middle  East -more than 2 TRILLION barrels untapped. That's more than all the  proven oil reserves of crude oil in the world today http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=1911

leweke1's picture
leweke1
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Dec 18 2008
Posts: 101
Re: New Martenson Report: Survey Says....

Just because there is oil there doesn't mean it will flow at a useful rate...if it's recoverable at all.

http://www.green-planet-solar-energy.com/bakken-oil.html

Vanityfox451's picture
Vanityfox451
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Dec 28 2008
Posts: 1636
Re: New Martenson Report: Survey Says....

Mstjane,

It would have been wonderful news except for :-

E.R.O.E.I

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EROEI

I'm genuinely sorry...

Best,

Paul

lmneditor's picture
lmneditor
Status: Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 10 2008
Posts: 1
Re: New Martenson Report: Survey Says....

Snopes has a bit of a different take on this item:

http://www.snopes.com/politics/gasoline/bakken.asp

It comes down to someone having an agenda, hence a bias.

Were it only true...

 

 

 

 

Vanityfox451's picture
Vanityfox451
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Dec 28 2008
Posts: 1636
Re: New Martenson Report: Survey Says....

Hi Imneditor,

Welcome to CM.com...

Best,

Paul

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