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New Martenson Report Ready

Thursday, November 20, 2008, 12:25 AM

In this Martenson Report/Alert, I detail the breakdown in the stock charts of several very large banks and insurance companies, relate these breakdowns to their past use of accounting shenanigans (Level III assets) and derivatives, and make the case that we are closer than ever to a financial breakdown. This is only my third alert ever and is warranted by the companies involved and what they signify.

Financial breakdown?

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52 Comments

Lemonyellowschwin's picture
Lemonyellowschwin
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
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Posts: 548
Re: New Martenson Report Ready

Excellent post and alert Chris, thank you very much for the detailed analysis.

I'm somewhat confused by this statement:  "But one thing I think can be predicted is that the chance of the dollar falling significantly in value is very, very high."

Do you mean if there is a banking holiday?  Or do you mean that even if there is not a banking holiday?  I was unclear from the context of your statement exactly what you were saying.

Nichoman's picture
Nichoman
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Re: New Martenson Report Ready

Chris, et al.,

 

Interesting and very sobering.   Been doing some research past several days and came up with many same thoughts as Chris.  Scientist and decisionmaker (53 years old) tells me to be objective...yet the magnitude of impacts...find this is not completely possible.   Question is...momentum suggests this could happen quite quickly...soon (possibly within next few weeks??) and so massively that none of can quite comprehend.    Any other thoughts out there on this?

 

--Nichoman

pinecarr's picture
pinecarr
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Re: New Martenson Report Ready

Hi Nichoman-

  My feeling/fear is also that if the dollar goes down, it is going to happen fast and big.  I think those powers with a big stake in the game have been very cautious about letting that happen, as they all have a lot to lose (US dollar-based assets).  But once it does start, they they have more to lose by NOTgetting out quickly.  So yes, that is my fear too.

   Also, Chris, Erik and others: Someone on your site posted a link to a very interesting article by Larry Edelson at moneyandmarkets.com  a few days ago, that had a different angle.  His take is that the G-20 may be thinking "If we can't print money fast enough to fend off another deflationary Great Depression, then let's change the value of the money." Larry pitches the idea that the G-20 may try to solve the debt problem by revaluating gold (high) and proposing a new monetary system that simultaneously devalues all currencies, and reinflating all asset prices.  Gold would be repriced high enough (and the new currencies low enough relative to gold) to monetize a large portion of the world's outstanding debts.  

   The article is at http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/the-g-20s-secret-debt-solution-27996  I'd be very interested to hear what you folks think about this, whether it makes sense and seems like a feasible possibility.  Or, if not, why not.   Thanks!

cnbbaldwin's picture
cnbbaldwin
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Re: New Martenson Report Ready

Lincoln National - LNC has dropped about 83% since end of Sept.  Have you left them off your troubled list of insurers for a reason? 

 

gregroberts's picture
gregroberts
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End the Fed

End the Fed

http://www.endthefed.us/

Lot's of good stuff at the Daily Paul today...

 http://www.dailypaul.com/

I saw a news story that said China is interested in the big three. :-O

Xflies's picture
Xflies
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Chris, weren't you calling for a rebound in the DOW to 9100?

I thought I saw you posted a while back that you thought the DOW would rebound... I know that was a while ago and that you should always be changing targets based on new data but if you do change your mind, is there a place that I can find your calls?  Maybe there should be a section that contains all of your targets and when you change them.  Personally I think you're awesome at pointing out the relevant facts and putting down complicated theories and relationships into simple terms that everyone can understand but it's a whole different story when you decide to become stock picker... don't get sucked into the 'dark' side of the business :)

 Having traded for almost 30 years I know that it can affect your views and make it more difficult to be objective.  I'm not saying you're not being objective, it's just a heads up on how things can turn out.

Reuben Bailey's picture
Reuben Bailey
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Re: Chris, weren't you calling for a rebound in the DOW to ...

Xfiles,

I remember Chris putting a target out of about 9700-10K.  In a later blog post, he said that the rebound to 9654 was close enough to consider that target reached. This was in a Martenson Report on 11/7/08. I have not seen any more recent targets that I can recall.

All the best,

suesullivan's picture
suesullivan
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Re: New Martenson Report Ready

I'm pretty sure Chris pointed out the intraday high that he felt met that criteria, a couple of weeks back, in a recent report,

fwiw,

sue

switters's picture
switters
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Re: New Martenson Report Ready

Well hang on to your hat folks!  

Thanks for the alert, Chris.  When I woke up and saw the market off another 250 points, I had many of the same thoughts.  It's back even now, but who knows what will happen the rest of the day?

I've got a question about banks.  The list at the end of the report of the exposure of various banks to derivatives is quite disturbing.  Bank of America gets a "B" rating from bankrate.com, yet it is #2 on the list of exposure to derivatives!  That tells me Bank of America would be one of the first to go under, yet it has a "B" rating on bankrate???

In fact, there are only four banks within a 50 mile radius of me (and I live in the SF Bay Area, for crying out loud) that have an "A" rating.  I'm trying to alert my friends and family to the possibility of a banking holiday, but I honestly do not know what banks to recommend to them because there are so few.

I have 3 months of cash out of the bank.  Hopefully that's enough to tide me over if Bank of America (one of my current banks) goes under and I need to get my money back from the FDIC.

I'm inclined at this point to keep almost nothing in any bank.  Most of my savings are in gold and silver, so luckily I don't have a lot of cash to protect. 

cmartenson's picture
cmartenson
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My calls and a challenge...

Xflies,

after reading your comments today, I would like to challenge you to lead by example.

  • What are your testable solutions?  I gave four areas of solutions, very specific ones, at the tail end of The Art of Deception. What are yours?
  • What are your market calls?

It's easy to critique, and it is harder to propose.  If you think others are not proposing well enough to your liking, then by all means, lead the way.  That's my challenge to you and anybody else who believes there's a deficit of solutions here, or anywhere. Critiquing is fine as far as it goes, but it falls short of today's challenges.

Instead of saying, "you folks are not proposing solutions I consider acceptable", try saying "here are the solutions I find compelling".  Then let's see where the conversation goes.

And as for my calls?

They are stored over in the subscriber area in the Martenson Reports.

Since this is now old news, I am comfortable releasing what I wrote on November 7th:


 

In my last Martenson Report, I said, "Stocks. If I were holding any at this stage (and I am not), I would continue to hold them with a relatively tight stop trailing beneath. My target for lightening up on them would be between 9,800 and 10,000 on the Dow."

In the chart below, we can see that the Dow made it to 9654 before reversing, whereas my predicted target was at the green circle. The green arrow denotes the day I published the report, which was (frustratingly) written the day before. Oh well, it's pretty rare that a 1000 point rally comes along to mess up your newsletter.

At any rate, getting to 9654 was close enough to 9800 for me to consider the target reached. Were I trying to lighten up on stocks or protect a long position, my trailing stops would have been hit at the 9300 level on Wednesday (11/5/08). The blue arrow shows the intraday bottom that I am confident we'll be revisiting on this next leg down. That stands at 7885, or 811 points lower than our close today of 8696.

Dow_Jones_v2_11-6-2008.jpg

 

 


Today my secondary target (retesting the low at the blue arrow) was achieved with a Dow low of 7775.

 

I'll be re-analyzing the market for clues after today's volume, price, technical and sentiment data is in. 

 

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Xflies
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Dow targets

Cool, thx for pointing that out... I don't visit the site as much as I should.  It's hard for me to keep track of where his calls are.  I still think that making targest on the DOW is an exercise in futility but appreciate the overall tone and direction of his calls.

Xflies's picture
Xflies
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Re: My calls and a challenge...

Oh man, I wish I had the answers... I really do.  As I just mentioned, I really do appreciate the overall awareness you are bringing to everyone including me, I just think making targets on the DOW isn't the most productive use of resources.  Over time, I've seen the best of the best fail and I've traded for a long time.  Even when I was at a hedge fund, my strategies were all market neutral and my boss would always come to me and ask me what I thought of the DOW and I would jsut have to tell him "I have no idea".  I never looked at the index as I was finding way too many good opportunities to find good risk/reward specific situations.  I'll be more than willing to admit that I will be the first to raise my hand in saying that I have no idea what exact level the DOW will be at tomorrow, the next day, the next month or year... I am anxiously waiting for more data points on the TARP and what level assets are being bought at before making a decision as to overall direction.  The banks are in precarious positions now with a total loss of confidence happening and a deteriorating market cap but again, this is just real time/rear view acknowledgements.

As for what I think should be done?  Hmmm, well from what I've seen in the currency markets, I am leaning towards supporting the destruction of the Euro.  I don't think their current system supports what I feel is an important evolution to global markets and that is multiple strong currencies (relatively speaking of course, I hear you loud and clear of the faults of the fiat based money system).  I think if it weren't for the Euro, other countries might have done things to correct situations earlier or even reinvested some money into hard assets to back their currency such as gold or oil.  This may have led to more stability but again, it's hard to judge what could/should have happened.

I think the gov't should establish a tax credit for encouraging technology and purchases of the electric car.  I really see the arbitrage of the energy btwn oil and gas as being crucial and that currently they are not fungible.  We need to bridge this gap and take advantage of the cost savings that could come out from reducing oil need and increasing natural gas use in the transportation industry.  The implementation of a natural gas car to me, just isn't feasible, given the billions required to create a natgas distribution infrastructure and the amount of time required to fill up cars.  North America has the best power infrastructure in the world so why not take advantage of it and sell electric cars even if they have less range.  Most people don't commute more than 100km to work everyday and there has been a trend to working at home and reducing overall commute times.

With regards to the financial mess... while I believe completely in mark to marking my portfolios in real time, I do think that exceptions should be made for long term asset holders like banks who are caught in a situation where the assets just don't have a proper market.  What is the market?  I don't know, but I can tell you that markets don't work without transparency and price discovery so any mark is worthless anyways.  That's why I actually kind of liked the idea of using TARP funds to start the whole price discovery process and see where things lie.  I think the US should treat TARP and the taxpayers money like any money manager looking to make a buck.  Bid low, get hit, bid lower, reassess, even offer higher up trying to get markets tighter so that there is true price discovery.

 Those are just some thoughts off the top of my head, nothing earth shattering.  I wish I had better solutions and my challenge to the readers on this board wasn't meant to be pompous, it was heart felt and honest.  The Martenson brigade will be successful in spreading the word and educating people so we can have a better informed public and push towards better solutions but in the end, that's what this is all far... to provide solutions, and remain optimistic.  If it's not, then what does this mean for my kids, your kids... future generations to come?

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Re: My calls and a challenge...

One solution I have already proposed on a local level is to initiate a class action suit against the municipality's suggestions to raise property taxes to solve their budget crises.

EndGamePlayer's picture
EndGamePlayer
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Re: New Martenson Report Ready

Boy Chris -

That's one he}} of a report. How could they build such a huge house of cards - where is the SEC?

I would love to get into gold right now. My father actually made a bundle in the early 80s on gold stock. Which brings about my next comment. In all this turmoil - why has gold stayed so low? If my memory serves me- it topped 800/ounce in the early 80s. Figuring for inflation, shouldn't it be nearing the $3,000/ounce mark?

EGP

ps - been watching markets and reading gurus since I was a kid and you're as "on target" as any I have ever read- including the Peter Lynch guy. No one (should) expect precison forecasting from another, just reporting and analysis - and you are great at that.

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Xflies
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No one else want to step up to Chris' call and challenge?

Come on, where are guys like Krogoth, Hewitt, switters, the matrix etc etc... there are a lot of smart people on this board, and I know they love to flame so start with my suggestions, flame away and then put up some of your own ... we really need to work on solutions, time is not on our side

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tom.
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Re: New Martenson Report Ready
EndGamePlayer wrote:

why has gold stayed so low? If my memory serves me- it topped 800/ounce in the early 80s. Figuring for inflation, shouldn't it be nearing the $3,000/ounce mark?

 

Paper gold right now is a little over $700 while you can't buy a Krugerrand for less than a thousand. The best and most accurate indicator I have seen is THE T-BONE STEAK INDICATOR.

So ... PRICE  ($23.00) x  indicator (40:1) = $993.33

switters's picture
switters
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Re: No one else want to step up to Chris' call and ...
Xflies wrote:

Come on, where are guys like Krogoth, Hewitt, switters, the matrix etc etc... there are a lot of smart people on this board, and I know they love to flame so start with my suggestions, flame away and then put up some of your own ... we really need to work on solutions, time is not on our side

I'm just a guy following all of these events and doing my best to prepare for what's to come.  

Chris and several others have made suggestions that would address some aspect of the problem.  I made suggestions for investing in our infrastructure, particularly when it comes to renewable energy.  If you've seen any of my other posts here, you'll know that I don't believe renewables can make up for the shortages of oil and fossil fuel that are on the way.  However, I do believe that investing directly in our productive and manufacturing capcity is better than simply printing money and giving it to the crooks that were directly involved in creating this mess.

Allowing the deflation to take its course and the economy to contract, as painful as that is going to be, is surely better than printing and monetizing trillions of dollars in an attempt to get us out of this mess by the same means we got into it: namely, borrowing and spending much, much more than we are producing or saving.

Not every problem has a solution, Xflies. This isn't a simple matter of A+B=C.  Perhaps that goes without saying, but you're acting as if there is some simple solution and we're all just holding out on you.  Nobody knows the answer.

In his book "The Long Descent", John Michael Greer makes an important distinction between "problems" and "predicaments". A problem, he says, calls for a solution which once employed eliminates the problem. A predicament, however, has no solution. Faced with predicaments, people come up with responses which may fail, succeed, or fall in between, but none of them eliminates the predicament. The industrial era (or empire) has reframed many predicaments as problems that can be solved. This is untrue.

The best we can do is employ a combination of objectivity, reason, sound ethics and compassion in addressing the many predicaments we face.  There are no "solutions".

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Xflies
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Re: No one else want to step up to Chris' call and ...

Thanks for taking the time to respond... I want to disagree with you but I may find myself pounded down to submission.  I wasn't looking for THE solution, I wanted to talk about solutions.  In previous posts, I mentioned that there is likely no ONE solution set but that shouldn't deter us from taking the time to use our collective brain power to just TRY.  Instead we love to criticize and call all of those who are in power trying to fix things, dumbasses... but how we can do that knowing there isn't a plausible soluttion?  If they aren't doing things right, how would you do them differently?  Is letting deflation run its course a real solution?  Yes, indeed it is a possible solution, but at what cost?  Do you have kids?  What do you think the future will be like for them under the scenario of letting deflation run its course?

My point is that this problem is MAN made and MAN can fix it.  No one has the market on foresight or knowledge so it is quite possible that those who we believe to be our leaders, could need a hand or two.  I can't... no I won't take the notion that there are NO solutions... I look at my kids, and I just can't... 

If you want to criticize, let it be followed with a suggestion and let it be criticized by others.  This is how the Martenson brigade will produce real long term value.  Be prepared to take the criticism and change your views based on new thoughts, ideas and data points...

And I'm not being arrogant in my approach, it's with full open honesty that I would rather discuss possible solutions than to take the time and post criticism.  Posting to build awareness and education is good, to go beyond that is wasteful.

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Re: New Martenson Report Ready

Ecuador Audit Recommends Default on 40% of Foreign Debt:

Ecuador audit recommends default on 40 pct debt

Ecuador audit advises default on 40 percent of foreign debt, Correa seeks to halt payment

  • Thursday November 20, 2008, 2:38 pm EST

QUITO, Ecuador (AP) -- A presidential commission recommended Thursday that Ecuador default on almost 40 percent of its foriegn debt after finding "illegalities and illegitimacies" in the contracts.

Related Quotes

Symbol Price Change
C 5.10 -1.30
Chart for CITIGROUP INC

{"s" : "c","k" : "c10,l10,p20,t10","o" : "","j" : ""}

President Rafael Correa said he would seek to halt payment on those debts and hold foreign investment banks and ex-government officials responsible, but fell short of declaring a default.

An audit made public Thursday advises Correa's government to default on $3.9 billion in three types of bonds issued as part of a debt restructuring in 2000. It says the negotiations lacked transparency and caused "incalculable" damage to Ecuador's economy.

The report also accuses former Ecuadorean officials and investment banks including U.S.-based J.P. Morgan and Salomon Smith Barney, now part of Citigroup Inc., of profiting from the restructuring. Neither bank had immediate comment Thursday, spokeswomen said.

Correa said former government officials had committed "treason," and that bankers "compulsively induced, threatened, bribed and pressured with all their might to push their loans and make their juicy commissions." He says the ex-officials and banks involved -- not Ecuador's government -- should therefore be the ones to reimburse bondholders.

Correa won by a landslide in 2006 after vowing to default on Ecuador's foreign debt and use the money to fund anti-poverty programs instead. He has not acted on the threat, but recently warned that falling oil prices may force his hand. Oil is Ecuador's top source of foreign income, and prices have dipped 64 percent since July.

Ecuador delayed $30.6 million in interest payments last week, saying it would use a 30-day grace period to assess the results of the yearlong, 30,000-page audit.

The suspension sent Ecuadorean bonds plummeting, prompted Standard & Poor's to slash its long-term rating on the country's debt. Investment in the nation's oil and mining sectors will likely freeze up as well.

The three bonds in question -- due in 2012, 2015 and 2030 -- were issued at a time when Ecuador's economy was collapsing and hyperinflation pushed the country to abandon its local currency for the U.S. dollar.

Finance Minister Maria Elsa Viteri insisted that Ecuador currently has the resources to service its debt, including $6.5 billion in foreign currency reserves. Ecuador's total foreign debt hit $10.03 billion in August, down 29 percent since 2006 but still 21 percent of the country's gross domestic product.

switters's picture
switters
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Re: No one else want to step up to Chris' call and ...
Xflies wrote:

Thanks for taking the time to respond... I want to disagree with you but I may find myself pounded down to submission.  I wasn't looking for THE solution, I wanted to talk about solutions.  In previous posts, I mentioned that there is likely no ONE solution set but that shouldn't deter us from taking the time to use our collective brain power to just TRY.  Instead we love to criticize and call all of those who are in power trying to fix things, dumbasses... but how we can do that knowing there isn't a plausible soluttion?  If they aren't doing things right, how would you do them differently?  Is letting deflation run its course a real solution?  Yes, indeed it is a possible solution, but at what cost?  Do you have kids?  What do you think the future will be like for them under the scenario of letting deflation run its course?

My point is that this problem is MAN made and MAN can fix it.  No one has the market on foresight or knowledge so it is quite possible that those who we believe to be our leaders, could need a hand or two.  I can't... no I won't take the notion that there are NO solutions... I look at my kids, and I just can't... 

If you want to criticize, let it be followed with a suggestion and let it be criticized by others.  This is how the Martenson brigade will produce real long term value.  Be prepared to take the criticism and change your views based on new thoughts, ideas and data points...

And I'm not being arrogant in my approach, it's with full open honesty that I would rather discuss possible solutions than to take the time and post criticism.  Posting to build awareness and education is good, to go beyond that is wasteful.

What I can't figure out (and neither could Chris M.) is why you are attacking everyone here for being overly critical and not offering "solutions" without offering any yourself?

I don't have kids myself but I have several young nieces and nephews and my wife and I are discussing having a child. Recent events have significantly affected that conversation because I am frankly a little scared about brining a child into the world at the present time.  So I am aware of this as a consideration.

I am not cavalier about the effects a prolonged deflationary depression would have on actual people, including me.  I am in no way insulated from this crisis.  The situation is dire, and I am afraid for myself and for my family and friends. 

Nevertheless, letting deflation run its course - as much pain as that would cause - is probably preferable to making an already horrible problem worse by going deeper into debt.  We're like an alcoholic who is constantly drinking to avoid the despair he feels when he sobers up.  Eventually there's a price to be paid, and the longer we put off paying it, the higher the price will be.

And yes, I feel perfectly sound in criticizing the unbelievably self-serving, unethical decisions made by Paulson and his crew.  It's a clear case of the rich protecting their own, and screwing the rest.  What don't you understand about that? Why is it that you feel so protective of the bankers and brokers that couldn't give a damn about you?  

There are indeed potential "solutions" to various aspects of the predicaments we face.  Several have been offered on threads all over this site.  I can't help it if you don't visit the site often, but perhaps you should do some reading here before spraying criticism around - especially when you haven't offered anything constructive yourself.

 

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Re: New Martenson Report Ready

If the only fix is a big fix then there is no fix

We must stop playing the game leaders want us to - our attention feeds them and many others. Your impotence is the grist for their mill.

All most of us have to do is talk to enough neighbours, but it's the hardest thing in the world to do. Thats why we keep focussed on the big fix. 

Small local groups of neighbours, acting only by total concensus, never again another leader. It worked for us for many thousands of years, every attempt at civilisation ended the way this one is. Their monuments are all around us. We have never stopped being tribal but we sure think we have.

Most of us have got so used to the hollow feeling in the pit of our stomach that we almost believe it isn't there anymore.

Don

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Re: No one else want to step up to Chris' call and ...

Perhaps you should read the site more often... just a few posts ago I posted my suggestions and was more than willing to take on the criticism.  You also don't read well or are too defensive to see past the obvious and to my message.  I am not attacking, I am asking that people take the time to come up with plausible solutions and discuss them on the board.  As a % of content, how much do you think is going towards building solutions?  All I see are complaints and conspiracy theories.  Sorry, I do see good articles and the stuff Chris puts out is awesome but nothing I haven't seen before but he has a knack for making it clear and understandable. 

I tried to put out a few suggestions and I try and bring objectivity to the board but I also don't go around attacking people who I think are having just of a hard time in figuring things out as everyone else.  I do not defend them but I don't attack them.  I don't think there is any conspiracy going on and I don't own a gun.  If the solutions are so hard to find, how can we take it upon ourselves to think so highly of our ideals and morality that we condemn those that are in the position to do what they can to help?  Has he done a good job?  Well hmmm, if you look at the markets and the frozen state of credit, I'd say No, but does that mean I should automatically think he is enriching himself and his cronies?  I don't know, I don't even go that far. 

I just think that the real goal of Chris M. is to inform and ultimately educate the public into making informed decisions and offer possible solutions to those that can affect policy.  Perhaps I'm wrong but I didn't get the sense that Chris M. did all this just so that poeple can go around and say that the gov't is corrupt, the world is coming to an end and to isolate themselves within a community and be self sustaining.  (Don't take that the wrong either, there's nothing wrong at all in being self sustaining, I try to be, but that shouldn't be the end goal in my opinion)

I also am not attacking when all I am suggesting is that there is so much brain power on this board that perhaps it would be good to engage is some good debate on possible solutions.  So far I've seen suggestions for an increase in infrastructure build and a few of my own like collapsing the Euro and offering tax incentives for the electric car and the use of TARP funds to start the price discovery process of toxic assets.  Please read my post and like I said, feel free to flame it but take a few moments before you right your rebuttal and try and not make it personal.

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Re: New Martenson Report Ready

Sorry, I shouldn't have made those comments about switter's ability to read... I meant to take that out before i pushed "post".  I should have heeded my own advice and not resisted the temptation to make things personal even though I was attacked first but sincerely, there was no value in that comment. 

I do try and post things that offer solutions or ideas.  I recently posted on the contango in the oil market.  This is also a trade that can be replicated using futures that trade on Nymex and personally I think it's a good trade.  Either the back end of the curve which is trading at $82 has to come down because people see that there is deflation and long lasting demand destruction or the front end has to come up because people realize that peak oil is still a possibility or there is a recovery in the markets.  One thing to watch for is the 'roll' cost which is what happens when you have to sell your front end contract when it comes due to buying the next contract out.  One way around this is to own oil storage facilities and just buy physical oil at $48 and sell it forward at the same time for $82.  No risk but you need financing.

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Re: New Martenson Report Ready

We need massive spending cuts, lower taxes and a balanced budget. We need to immediately stop all foreign aid and all unnecessary wars. We need to end all bailouts. We need to secure our borders and restore the US Constitution and Bill of Rights. We need higher interest rates to attract liquidity and reward savings. We need to BAN all lobbyist and remove all corporate influence from our legislative process. We need to end the Fed and IRS. Last, but not least, we need to end these terrible free trade agreements like NAFTA and GATT that force American workers to directly compete with cheap Chinese and Mexican labor

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Re: No one else want to step up to Chris' call and ...

Xflies

There are no top-down solutions. We are overburdened with top-down corruption, ignorance and incompetence.

For the immediate and unforeseable future, this collapse has to go to completion. It can't be stopped.

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gyrogearloose
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Joined: Sep 8 2008
Posts: 537
Re: My calls and a challenge...
Xflies wrote:

  North America has the best power infrastructure in the world so why not take advantage of it and sell electric cars even if they have less range.  Most people don't commute more than 100km to work everyday and there has been a trend to working at home and reducing overall commute times.

 From the rate I hear of power cuts in America its grid ain't to hot. Then there is where the power comes from

http://wolf.readinglitho.co.uk/mainpages/countries.html

Scroll down 3/4 to "Consumption by fuel"  The USA is near the bottom on renewables.

Covered in the CC is the number of power stations you would need to build to run the fleet on electricity. Not a gooer

Get used to electric assisted bikes if you are rich, peddle powered only if not so rich.

Massive change in lifestyle is coming.

 

castlewp's picture
castlewp
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
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Posts: 304
Re: No one else want to step up to Chris' call and ...

Hewittr

I totally agree with you.. We have "crossed the rubicon" and just have to enjoy the ride.  The corruption is so obvious that any solution that makes sense will be shot down.  Any body who blows the whistle on these people will be shot down. 

Xflies's picture
Xflies
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Posts: 157
Re: My calls and a challenge...

interesting article, thx for the link but there is definitely room in the grid for a fleet of electric cars.  The grid is built to provide peak power plus a large margin for safety... this also means that at 2am, the utilization rate for the grid is extremely low, I don't know about the US but in Canada the low point around 2am has the grid operating at less than 30% of capacity.  There's plenty of room if the cars charge at the weee hours of the morning.

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Xflies
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Posts: 157
Re: No one else want to step up to Chris' call and ...

wow... ok, enough said I guess.  I'll just continue to read the site, keep my mouth (fingers) shut and hope for the better. 

Nichoman's picture
Nichoman
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Nov 1 2008
Posts: 422
Re: New Martenson Report Ready

One of the most compelling points Chris made in the crash course is human nature...he labeled it in Chapter 17C as a prediction (number 1).

The status quo will be preserved at all costs.   Our leaders simply don't want to accept we/they have created the problem.  I call it a type of dogma. 

Until leaders recognize this...will continue to make things worse...hence large scale macro solutions are impossible.   The only remedy as first step is information and education!

Which can't thank Chris and others on this web site and crash course!   Their efforts and service should be commended.  BTW...don't agree with Chris completely in some areas.   That's good...its called being independent minded.  Then...through dialog and information exchange and all parties keeping an open mind makes us all better...that will help us pursue solutions as they identify themselves.

My 2 cents.

 

--Nichoman 

Woodman's picture
Woodman
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
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Posts: 1028
Re: New Martenson Report Ready

Wells Fargo, #6 for dirivatives exposure, holds my mortgage.  What happens if they go under?  What will their creditors do with my mortgage?

Erik T.'s picture
Erik T.
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 5 2008
Posts: 1234
Thanks for this post, Xfiles
Xflies wrote:

I wish I had better solutions and my challenge to the readers on this board wasn't meant to be pompous, it was heart felt and honest. 

Xfiles,

I just want to thank you for this most recent post and to echo Chris' sentiment that we'd really like to see more of your insight framed in terms of information and solutions.

From your many posts on this site, I am quite impressed that you are obviously a very smart guy with a lot of insight and perspective. I don't doubt for an instant that your intentions have always been genuine, and I know that when you've made critical posts in the past, you did so with the best of intentions.

But frankly, the only way I can tell you're a really smart guy is by reading between the lines of your posts, which are often describing (legitimately in many cases) why what someone else said was wrong or incomplete. I'd sure love to read more posts from you sharing your insights and opinions with the community directly. It's so much more pleasant than having to intuit your views from critical (albeit quite insightful) statements you've made elswhere in these forums.

Thanks again for this informative post!

Erik

 

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Xflies
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
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Posts: 157
Re: Thanks for this post, Xfiles

thanks bro, seriously I never intend to offend anyone at any time with any of my posts... and I don't post a lot because I'm not really used to participating on board discussions so I may not know the etiquette.  This is actually the only board I post on so that I'm a bit of a newb.  Despite being in the markets since I was 9 and having almost 30 years of trading experience, 15 of it as a hedge fund manager, I have learned a lot from Chris' works and genuinely want to see this site thrive which is why I wanted to work on that next dimension of the site which I see as offering more positive feedback and rebuttal on solutions rather than focusing on the problems.  There are plenty of sites which talk of doomsday, financial distress, criticisms of the people in power, but there are very few, if any, sites that focus on what we should/could do and how to make a difference. 

Ray Hewitt's picture
Ray Hewitt
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 5 2008
Posts: 458
Re: New Martenson Report Ready

Xflies

What goes on in the world at large is totally out of our control. We can make a difference with family, job and friends, and even there our options are limited. I have two brothers who refuse to talk about this stuff; I can't help them. My son is well stocked in silver and makes an excellent income. He's in good shape. My daughter is married with three young children. She's screwed if her husband gets laid off. I have plenty of silver to back them up and so does my son. Point being; if your finances are in bad shape, you're no good to anyone.

castlewp's picture
castlewp
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
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Posts: 304
Re: New Martenson Report Ready

Hewittr,

Great post.  I'm glad you mentioned your two brothers who refuse to talk about this.  I am having the same response whenever I bring the economy up with my family.  I think that if we can get to a point where we are able to discuss this situation with our family and friends we can at least be more prepared to what is inevitable.  I've tried to have them watch the Crash Course and that is even like pulling teeth.  Maybe I am not approaching this subject in the right way.  Any suggestions?  Thanks for your help  

Ray Hewitt's picture
Ray Hewitt
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 5 2008
Posts: 458
Re: New Martenson Report Ready

Castle

What I find is that most feel they are on a course they have no control over. So they do nothing but block it out or hope for the best. Mention of gold and silver is too foreign to them; reactions are typically negative. You can't push your ideas on people, so I go as far as I can until I meet resistance. I've gotten a reputation for prescience at work among those I work with every day, but even there, they go on as usual. They are not going to change their ways; it will be forced on them. And that's about the way it is in larger society.

 

Xflies's picture
Xflies
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 19 2008
Posts: 157
Re: New Martenson Report Ready

Just like they tell you in the airplane before take off... "secure yourself before you help others".  There is logic behind this.  I totally agree but that doesn't mean we can't try and come up with some solutions.  I see a lot of smart people on this board and to grow complacent because people believe that they can't make a difference?  Well... let's just say that I don't believe that to be the case and thank goodness a lot of entrepreneurs, politicians, leaders etc. don't feel the same way.  It is, however, easy to grow complacent if all one sees is the dark side of things.  At times I have been sucked into the abyss but you are completely right, it takes self fortitude and the commitment to help yourself and your family even before you can think of going to the next step of helping others.  I am not saying your complacent but I did want to use your post to perhaps raise the point that one of the problems in being the first to criticize and the first to look at the bad side of things, is that it is very difficult to be positive enough to look for solutions.  I suppose you were responding to my earlier post where I threw my hands up in the face of so many that would rather just complain rather than do something about it but you're right in that we need to secure ourselves first.  Small steps I suppose...

but just while I have your attention, do you have any good suggestions on what can be done to help resolve some of these financial problems?  I'd like to hear as many things as possible just in case I am missing something.  How about the TARP program... I think it should be used to start buying small amounts of toxic assets to start the price discovery process.  Mark to market accounting is important but when you don't have a proper market, it's useless.  I would treat TARP like it was one of my hedgefunds and bid for some, if I get hit, I drop by bids lower and offer ahead of the banks.  I would continuously go back and forth until there is some sort of price discovery happening without my intervention.  It is difficult for banks to lend to someone if the moment they lend, they are down money because they have to mark all of these assets down.  I don't think you need to spend a lot of money to see if this attempt at kick starting the price discovery process works or not... so it's not like you're spending 100's of billions to do it.  If it doesn't work, move on to something else.

 

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Xflies
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 19 2008
Posts: 157
Re: New Martenson Report Ready

I'm not sure if this will help but I was able to get my sister-in-law who is about as opposite to the typical poster here as you can imagine, to take the first few chapters of the crash course by bringing up the example that Chris used about the magic drop in Yankee stadium and asking her to guess how long it would take for that stadium to fill.  I then compare the power of compounding to a few other examples and then loop it back to the economy.  Usually by then they may have an interest and then just whip out the laptop and fire off the chapter that starts talking about the world we live in etc.. 

castlewp's picture
castlewp
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 7 2008
Posts: 304
Re: New Martenson Report Ready

Thanks for the tip, Xfiles.  I will give a a try

Damnthematrix's picture
Damnthematrix
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 10 2008
Posts: 3998
Re: No one else want to step up to Chris' call and ...
Xflies wrote:

wow... ok, enough said I guess. I'll just continue to read the site, keep my mouth (fingers) shut and hope for the better.

You know Xflies, we're on opposite sides of the world, and we obviously do not know each other, but if I was a betting man (which I ain't) I'd take a guess at saying you might be suffering from depression.....  Now this is NOT being critical, not one iota.  I've been there done that, and I told the doctor where to stick his anti-depressants, I should be perfectly entitled to be depressed when TPTB go out of their way to create a depressing world......

I think you should pay a bit more attention to what Switters wrote.....  you must've realised by now that he and I are but one mind!  And so I totally agree with his posts which I won't bother reiterating here.  Just because the problem is man made doesn't mean man can fix it.... like fixing Chernobyll!

BTW, thanks for calling me a smart guy in an earlier post.....  most people think I'm off my perch!

Mike. 

Damnthematrix's picture
Damnthematrix
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
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Posts: 3998
Re: New Martenson Report Ready
castlewp wrote:

We need massive spending cuts, lower taxes and a balanced budget. We need to immediately stop all foreign aid and all unnecessary wars. We need to end all bailouts. We need to secure our borders and restore the US Constitution and Bill of Rights. We need higher interest rates to attract liquidity and reward savings. We need to BAN all lobbyist and remove all corporate influence from our legislative process. We need to end the Fed and IRS. Last, but not least, we need to end these terrible free trade agreements like NAFTA and GATT that force American workers to directly compete with cheap Chinese and Mexican labor

We need a new system.

Its first and most important goal should be SUSTAINABILITY.

GREED should be banned.

In the new system, we do things because they are worth doing, not because there's money to be made.

We need to do a lot less stuff.

America, REVOLT!

Mike. 

Xflies's picture
Xflies
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
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Posts: 157
Re: New Martenson Report Ready

wow... that's some psychological profiling.  I'm actually not depressed at all.  What makes me more depressed is reading all of the effort on these boards to focus on criticizing rather than thinking of ways to make money or to bring about plausible solutions.  I am fortunate enough to have made a lot of money in my career as a hedge fund manager and so I am thankful every day for what I have and concerned for those who do not have as much.  All I was trying to do was to make a 'call to arms' in a sense and to get people off of the depressing rhetoric and to look to a future where this IS a future.  I tried to make my suggestions and still await good rebuttals and other solutions as to what we can think of that would help our current financial situation and to pass on the very best of ideas to those who can affect change.  I have also tried to put posts on how people can make money and on how to 'save' money (buying physical gold when people thought there was a shortage, in Canada).  I won't go on to defend myself other than to say that I am just as content not saying another word and letting you all fight over who's more wrong.

If there are readers on this board who find themselves agreeing with what they read or say to themselves "that's exactly what I was thinking!"  then I would suggest that it is time that they found another site.  The reason why I like this site so much is that it brings about views opposed to my own.  The day I find that I agree with absolutely everything, is the day I will look elsewhere to get more information.  Chris has brought to light many things I didn't quite understand or agree with and I look forward to his comments.  What I don't do is come to this site to look for like minded individuals for self gratiation (is that even a word?).  I come for opposing views of well informed, smart individuals like yourself.  Hubris, objectivity, the thirst for knowledge and the truth... all things I try to remind myself every day I invest.  I am currently doing well in the markets, in part for what I have learned here and only wish the best for others.  I am not being condescending, I hope people don't take it that way... I am just trying to pass on what has kept me safe, solvent and profitable.  As for your comment on Greed... I can see where you are coming from but as with many things in this world, there are many shades of Greed and not all are bad.

joe2baba's picture
joe2baba
Status: Martenson Brigade Member (Offline)
Joined: Jun 17 2008
Posts: 807
Re: New Martenson Report Ready

rafael correa will be dead within 1 year.

the cia will see to it that he is gone. salvador allende 

is the prime example of a  south american leader who took on

u.s. corporate interests. the chicago school of economics will target

ecuador. we now have a president who received almost 300k 

from the school founded by the rockefellers. he is from chicago.

uncle miltie would not  have it any  other way.

or maybe not

ckessel's picture
ckessel
Status: Martenson Brigade Member (Offline)
Joined: Nov 12 2008
Posts: 465
Re: New Martenson Report Ready

Xflies Wrote:

but just while I have your attention, do you have any good suggestions
on what can be done to help resolve some of these financial problems? 
I'd like to hear as many things as possible just in case I am missing
something.

 

 

I am new to this group and I want to say how much I appreciate the viewpoints mentioned by Switters and Damnthematrix. As regards the comments by Xfies I can only recommend you review the six stages that we will all go through as regards the "predicament" we are in.  I think we all wish we had simply missed something and it will be OK.

The bottom line for me is that we  have been living in a world which has allowed for us to take enormous liberties with the surpluses made available by oil and fossil fuels in general. It has been made worse by greed and political processes used to control and manipulate. The only solution available is to take back the day. That will require:

1)Education: Of ourselves and getting the word out to others. This is no small job. Thank you Chris for your leadership. 

 2)Action: on being prepared financially as well as possible but on other issues of food, shelter, transportation and in being a stabilizing influence for others. When the truth hits, people will have a real hard time with this "predicament".

3)Skills: I imagine that basic animal husbandry, gardening and nutrition knowledge ( I really like the say no to drugs comment by Damnthematrix) and fundamental life skills will be invaluable as we move further into the lifestyle adjustment which a reduced oil supply coupled with an expanding population will bring.

 4)Community Involvement: Get to know people and connect with those who have an ability to see what is happening. Work out local strategies for basic needs and get going on adjusting yourself and your kids to a lifestyle that fits a more modest energy supply. IE:If you commute to work over long distances then figure out how to make it work by bicycle. 

If you don't think things are likely to change that much ......retake the crash course and figure out what you missed! 

 

joe2baba's picture
joe2baba
Status: Martenson Brigade Member (Offline)
Joined: Jun 17 2008
Posts: 807
Re: No one else want to step up to Chris' call and ...

dont pout that was only one reply

i enjoy your posts and i come here to learn

you have been very informative. and have presented 

ideas that are borne of your experience.

others have had different experiences.

if i had some money available to invest i would definitely be asking 

you and others here for your ideas. unfortunately 

i dont as my wealth is tied up in real estate.

not a good time to switch , maybe not in my lifetime 

switters's picture
switters
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Jul 19 2008
Posts: 744
Re: New Martenson Report Ready

Xflies,

I can appreciate that you're interested in finding "solutions" to the challenges we're facing.  I've suggested that I don't think the predicament we're in is something that can be "solved", but instead requires a full range of individual, local, national and global responses. 

Speaking for myself and many others here, I have decided that the sphere in which I can have the greatest impact is in my own family and local community.  Consequently that is where I have directed most of my efforts.  If you are truly looking for "solutions", this is where I'd suggest that you'll get the most "bang for your buck". 

Many of us have spent the past few years (or longer in the case of folks like Damnthematrix) reducing energy consumption, increasing food security, acquring new skills, changing jobs to something more viable in a post-oil economy, taking charge of our own health care, educating ourselves and our loved ones about peak oil, building relationships with our neighbors, and much more. 

These are "solutions" I can get behind because they 1) are highly relevant to the well-being of myself and my family and provide direct and tangible results, 2) can be embarked upon immediately without the consent, approval or resources of third parties (including governments) outside of my control, 3) make sense from an environmental and economic perspective no matter what happens over the next several years.

I wonder if some of your defensiveness isn't coming from the sometimes intense criticism levied against Wall Street and the financial world on this forum?  You mentioned that you worked as a hedge fund manager for a long time, and I could imagine that you might feel personally attacked by some of the posts here.

I meant nothing personal in my comments towards you.  I do, however, stand by my criticism of Paulson and the many crooks on Wall Street that have continually placed the interest of the wealthy elite ahead of the average working American.

Damnthematrix's picture
Damnthematrix
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 10 2008
Posts: 3998
Re: New Martenson Report Ready

You see Xflies, we are at opposite ends of the spectrum....  I have never made a lot of money, and I have never revered money.  We have no savings, and no gold, but we are out of debt and we can live on very little money.  In fact I'd go so far as to say the only reason we stil 'need' money is because the Matrix dictates so.  So we have to pay rates (you probably call this property tax?) twice a year, and I have a $50 a month internet habit.  Our cell phone costs us $30 a month, and that's about it....  If my wife didn't insist on having her own car so she can visit her mother (and go to work to pay for it!) we could live like kings on SS.

I brew my own beer, so even the small pleasures in life are very cheap...!  If a large sum of money suddenly appeared on our horizon, apart from doing a few more finishing touches to our house (which I reckon wouldn't amount to more than a few hundred bucks, I wouldn't know what to do with it (must get another chest freezer and convert to hyper efficient fridge though!).

I certainly would not buy a car or go for an overseas holiday now.....  the goats would miss me! 

castlewp's picture
castlewp
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 7 2008
Posts: 304
Important

Let's just hope we have sites like Chirs' in the future.  TPTB could easily view a site like this as "bad content".  I know that they are already doing this in Australia and now it looks like the UK


UK Government to Ban Content It Doesn't Like

The UK Government wants to turn off web sites it doesn't like, that's the real aim of its plan to takeover the .uk DNS system.

On Wednesday a certain David Hendon who works for the Department for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform, said that the domain name industry needs to toe the government line on phishing, spam and "bad content".

Now, no one is in favour of phishing and spam, but what on earth does this bureaucrat mean by "bad content"?

We don't have to look far. Hazel Blears, a career politician who is currently Communities Secretary, recently made noises about shutting down blogs she doesn't like. She particular doesn't like the blog of Guido Fawkes. It's not surprising she doesn't like that blog because he has broken many stories that have been very embarrassing to the government. This is what she said:

Unless and until political blogging 'adds value' to our political culture, by allowing new and disparate voices, ideas and legitimate protest and challenge, and until the mainstream media reports politics in a calmer, more responsible manner, it will continue to fuel a culture of cynicism and pessimism.

Now, the thing is that Guido is a new and disparate voice. It's just that he's not the sort of new and disparate voice that Blears and the other aparatchiks in the government like. She only wants ones authorised by her.

This government is the most two-faced, cynical and authoritarian in the rapidly-becoming-less-free world. They have already banned certain types of protest in London. Now, they only want you look at content, they've authorised. 

pweddy's picture
pweddy
Status: Member (Offline)
Joined: Nov 20 2008
Posts: 1
Re: New Martenson Report Ready

So which banks are considered safe? Chris showed the list of riskiest banks, now I'd love to see a list of the most stable banks.

gyrogearloose's picture
gyrogearloose
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 8 2008
Posts: 537
Re: My calls and a challenge...

Sure there is spare capacity in the system, but take a look at CC 17 A at 1 minute in.

Coal ( which from that link I posted is used to generate 25% of USA's electricity ) is hugging the floor at say 3% of the BTU's

Say the coal plants are only utilised at 50% to their total theoretical capacity currently. Plug in the cars and push it to 100% Coal consumption would then have to double. This would mean that it could drop oil from 40% to 37% ( trying to read from the chart and using easy %'s for quick but informative calculations )

I believe that actions like holding out plug in electric cars as a solution will only give false hope to many people that we can carry on as we are. 

Sorry to appear to be stamping out hope, but I so often run into people who need to hear the hidden details of why a particular idea has problems. The problem with your suggestion as I see it is not really technical but societal.

We desperately need to reduce our consumption, hence get used to bikes, plug in electric ones if you are rich Wink

Cheers Hamish

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