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New Martenson Report ready for subscribers

Monday, January 26, 2009, 4:05 PM

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Link to:  Biting the Hand that Feeds

Snippet:

In this report I explore a troubling (to me) set of statements made by Treasury Secretary nominee Timothy Geithner about China being a currency manipulator" and the possible impacts of adopting that stance.


I think the worst is yet to come. I think we are only steps away from a major currency and banking crisis. I think that your opportunities to position yourself for that outcome are shrinking rapidly. I say much of this based on the alert I sent out earlier that focused on the troubling stock price performance of the biggest banks that head up the list of those institutions holding the largest derivative positions.

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11 Comments

Brak's picture
Brak
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
Joined: Nov 10 2008
Posts: 34
currency trading

Chris,

As usual, I appreciate your timely and perceptive analysis. 

I'm curious to hear more about your statement that you don't trade currencies. Even if it is a rigged game, wouldn't diversification still be a good idea here? I think you also made an offhand remark in your most recent podcast that foreign travel would be restricted in a dollar crisis to the very wealthy and those with foresight to hold foreign currencies (but I may be misremembering).

I'd appreciate some additional commentary on trading currencies.

Thanks!

pinecarr's picture
pinecarr
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 13 2008
Posts: 2237
Re: New Martenson Report ready for subscribers

Thanks for your insights, Chris! 

I also didn't get why our (US) gov't would accuse China of currency manipulation, when we are so very dependent on them to buy our debt.  It's like a saleperson insulting a customer.  It IS a salesperson insulting a customer!  It didn't make sense to me!  But I just brushed it off as a stupid comment.  I didn't grasp the potential significance of it as you did, that it may have been an intentional comment, with a purpose/reason.

It IS like watching a great big high-stakes poker game being played!   With our lives tossed into the kitty!

DavidLachman's picture
DavidLachman
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Jul 4 2008
Posts: 153
Complaining about the PEG for the last year

The Treasury Sec complaining about Chinese Currency seems to be more of the same from the last year of the Bush Administration when Paulson would complain about the peg and how the Yuan should be free floating.  In the world where Central Bankers think they are regulating instead of manipulating it must seem, to the powers in charge, like the countries that aren't part of the scheme they work under are "manipulating" instead of "regulating."  I wouldn't be surprised if it just more myopia on the part of the US--or for US media consumption.  Geithner, more than anyone but Bernanke, knows what the Fed is up against in terms of what it willl have to do to "regulate" the economy (as part of Quantitative Easing) to get "capitalism" through this mess.

bobb dobbs's picture
bobb dobbs
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 22 2008
Posts: 31
Re: New Martenson Report ready for subscribers

 

Hello Chris,

I think your decision not to trade currencies because " insiders...manipulate currency markets to affect specific central bank policy aims " is equally and for the same reasons, applicable to gold, as you go on to explain in the last part of this report, detailing how JPM may be " accumulating such a massive position " ..." in a semi-official capacity, and that the goal is to keep a lid on prices during a delicate phase of this financial crisis."

Sounds like insider manipulation to me, in both cases.

I'm guessing you have more reasons than 'manipulation' for avoiding currencies. Would you share them with us?

 

grl's picture
grl
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Nov 30 2008
Posts: 188
Re: New Martenson Report ready for subscribers

Chris,

I couldn't hold off any longer. Despite the news just today that my income is likely to drop precipitously, I thought it probably a wise investment to go ahead and become a CM subscriber. (and it was indeed a very wise investment) First of all, your insight into Geithner's comments hit me with a "wow, of course!" Then I read some of your back issues and all I can say is I sure do wish I found you earlier and subscribed back then - I would have been saved from a lot of financial pain.  Thank you for all you do!

cat233's picture
cat233
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 20 2008
Posts: 575
Re: New Martenson Report ready for subscribers
Lisa G wrote:

Chris,

I couldn't hold off any longer. Despite the news just today that my income is likely to drop precipitously, I thought it probably a wise investment to go ahead and become a CM subscriber. (and it was indeed a very wise investment) First of all, your insight into Geithner's comments hit me with a "wow, of course!" Then I read some of your back issues and all I can say is I sure do wish I found you earlier and subscribed back then - I would have been saved from a lot of financial pain.  Thank you for all you do!

 

Lisa, 

Don't forget to listen to the podcast too.

Everyone else... The subscription price is an investment not only in your education, but your future too.  And as Lisa said, it will also save you from a lot of financial pain.  

Thank you Chris!

Cat

 

 

joemanc's picture
joemanc
Status: Martenson Brigade Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 16 2008
Posts: 834
Re: New Martenson Report ready for subscribers

If the dollar collapses because China stops buying our t-bills, wouldn't that drive up the price of oil because oil is priced in dollars? And if so, then the OPEC countries are all of a sudden flush with cash again, and could, stress could, conceivably buy our T-bills again. This is certainly going to be an interesting few weeks and months coming up.

homosapiens's picture
homosapiens
Status: Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 24 2008
Posts: 11
Re: New Martenson Report ready for subscribers

 

Chris,

Thanks for the confirmation of my deepest concerns at this matter. See my recent posts under:

http://www.peakprosperity.com/comment/13661#comment-13661

http://www.peakprosperity.com/comment/13805#comment-13805

Reading you with: "I sincerely hope that it is not the opening salvo of some long-planned trade and/or currency war." Brings me back to Warren Buffets recent "Economic Pearl Harbor" remark and that coincidence is alarming. Thanks also for your comments about the bizarr Dollar behavior in the recent past where I have been unable to determine any logical reason. It seems I am not allone.

Tom in Colorado, Growth is not an option!

robk's picture
robk
Status: Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 21 2008
Posts: 13
Re: New Martenson Report ready for subscribers
Quote:

I think your decision not to trade currencies because " insiders...manipulate currency markets to affect specific central bank policy aims " is equally and for the same reasons, applicable to gold...

 

I think that is why the price charged for actual gold coins doesn't mirror the price of paper gold.  Paper gold can be manipulated, but physcial gold is supply and demand. Right?

blackrott's picture
blackrott
Status: Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 2 2008
Posts: 20
currency. China V.S. US
 
My brother sent me this.
If I understand this right.  China's monetary system works bassically opposite of ours.  while we run trade deficits, China runs a trade surplus, record surplus.  They are also walking the edge of a knife too.  mistakes may force them to dumb the dollar to buy yuan.   Resulting in a worthless dollar and china as one of the next world currencies.   
Ready's picture
Ready
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Dec 30 2008
Posts: 917
Re: currency. China V.S. US

Blackrott, thanks for the link. It's always nice to start the day with some positive, light reading!

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