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New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

Sunday, May 17, 2009, 2:35 PM

A new Martenson Report is ready for enrolled members.  In this report, we stroll through the recent data and I make the case that there's no need to wait for any clearer signs that "things have changed" than the ones we already have.  If you are waiting for TSHTF (explained in the article) then you can stop waiting.

Link to It Has Hit The Fan

A snippet:

In times like these, I take a few steps back and try to look at the whole picture. The details are numerous; they are often contradictory and confusing. For clarity's sake, it can be helpful to keep the macro view in focus, instead of the details. Here are the big-picture items that I keep firmly in mind each day:

  • This is a crisis of too much debt, not too little spending.
  • This is a global crisis. Clues for directionality are best found by viewing the entire world situation. That data still points downwards.
  • The energy situation is getting worse, not better, due to a lack of critical and focused investment and the passage of wasted time.
  • It's not possible for an insolvent nation to borrow money from an insolvent financial system to bail out insolvent financial, real estate, and insurance companies.
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57 Comments

Davos's picture
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Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

 Great read Chris, thanks!

I agree, we are in a depression already.

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Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

Thank you Chris.  Enjoyed the report as usual.

Is it still your sense that price inflation will start to rear its ugly head by the end of the year?

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Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

Wow

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Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

Chris

Thank you as always, extremely well researched and timely (scary too but better to know).  With appreciation for your efforts and Rebecca's and the rest of the Brigade's-

Denise

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Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

<sarcasm>

Don't worry everyone, an Acclaimed Economist Says Recession Is Over

</sarcasm>

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Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

One of CM's main points is this a global crisis.  Does this mean most worldwide economies will decline with the US and there is no safe haven?  Does this differ from folks like Peter Schiff whom I hear talk about the decline of the US dollar and economy but that economies in foreign countries like China will hold stronger - as the US moves toward more socialistic, managed economics and China moves toward freer capitalism?  Or do you have to figure in a global wide impact with peak oil? 

Tom

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Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

Why was my comment and question (posted last night on this thread) taken off?  Whats going on?  A simple comment "I finally subscribed, glad I did" and asking why CM rents instead of owning?  Wow, was that to personal?  Why would a post like that be taken off?  Lost.

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Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

 rocket, see this post...it's still there...  

http://www.peakprosperity.com/martensonreport/it-has-hit-the-fan

 

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Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan
rocketgirl1 wrote:

Why was my comment and question (posted last night on this thread) taken off?  Whats going on?

rocketgirl1,

To add to strabes' comment, Chris often makes three new posts when creating a Martenson Report.  There is an announcement post which is on his blog, the newsletter sent to enrolled members, and then the actual report itself.  The value of the announcements is there are many people who subscribe to Chris' RSS blog feed or check their email regularly, so these are quick and easy ways to let many people know the report is ready.

Blog posts are here... http://www.peakprosperity.com/blog
Newsletters are here... http://www.peakprosperity.com/newsletters
And Martenson Reports are here... http://www.peakprosperity.com/martensonreports

Hope this helps!

Ron

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Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

Thanks Strabes, I still don't know how to work this site.  The answer to the rent vs own question was good but my thought is at what point is it worth it to own once you've built your self sustaining infrastructure (garden, root cellar, etc.) and then have to do it all over again when you have to move out of your rental?  I know the answer centers around your personal circumstances, I get that but what is helpful is the thinking around the timing of the rent vs own scenario.  With all thats going on in the sustaining home and community ideas the question of when to finally own is ( in response to out national state of affairs not personal affairs) a good one.  Anyone?

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Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

owning is fine as long as you comfortably maintain a 1) balance sheet cushion and 2) a cashflow cushion and aren't at risk of getting underwater. for example, signing up for a mortgage that simply fits your current income isn't a sufficient cushion since people will be losing jobs or getting pay cuts as this depression picks up steam. basically you just need to do a "stress test" on your own balance sheet and cashflow to determine if the overhead of owning (which is really just renting from a bank until you payoff the mortgage) is better than the flexibility/liquidity of renting from a landlord.  

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Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

Our situation is a bit unique and the future will dictate if we are in a good position or not.  We bought several homes during the heydays but instead of renting them full time we bought prime real estate next to a major national park and we rent them to vacationers (a banner year now but a very slow start and everyone asking for discounts) with a formula of one week rental equals monthly expenses.  Now that we know about the crash course, peak everything, it looks like one of the properties will be perfect for self sustaining life style.  We are not even close to owning outright and we're not rich by any means so the point in mentioning this is that not every rental is full time rental and the vacation rental can also be a good sell even in a bad economy.  Our international travel has tanked but next state and local is booming.  There are still Americans with money and they will visit the national parks even in bad economic times, it's a scale down vacation for them.  These are interesting times.

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Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

 yes that's entirely different.  rather than stress testing your personal balance sheet / cashflow statement as you would for a live-in primary home, you just need to stress test your business plan given you're running profitable rentals...that is an asset, not a liability, so the decision completely changes. just make sure you stress test your business plan for near-zero revenue...that's the possibility in the next phase of the collapse, or TSHTF.  :)

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Rent Vs. Buy?

Rocketgirl1,

Why do I rent?  I began renting because I could not find any houses or land that I considered even remotely within a reasonable price (at the time) and I judged that my holdings in gold would outpace local real estate by a wide margin.

So far so good.

However, I have been actively seeking the right piece of land - house is optional - for quite some time and would have bought if the right piece had opened up as far back as a year and a half.

We are actively seeking right now and more and more is opening up all the time as sellers s.l.o.w.l.y. come to grips with reality.  It's still frustrating for me to see overpriced houses pop up on the market every week, but for the local realtors it's been deadly and they are beyond frustrated at this point.

To me, the math is simple.  Either people can afford to buy a house or they cannot.  Now that lenders have been demanding 20% down plus a 30% cap on the mortgage:income ratio, this has put a severe cap on house prices locally.  At least, a severe cap on the ones that are selling I should say.  Things are moving quite nicely in the $150k - $180k range (which aligns with local incomes), but nothing has sold in my area over $400k in over a year.  Yet people still slap their silly ranches on the market for prices well over that mark, let them languish, pull them off and relist them in hopes that nobody notices that its the same house for some insane "drop" of perhaps $5k, try different brokers, and generally do everything they can to avoid noticing that the problem is that their listing price is out of alignment with current market realities.

So we are "in the market" but not at fantasy or delusion levels. I am pathologically averse to losing money in markets or overpaying for assets and I am quite tuned into the local market so I'll know a good deal when I see one and we will move rapidly when the situation warrants.

Best,
Chris

PS - We very, very rarely delete posts around here and always notify the poster when we do.

 

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Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

Thanks for your time and insights Chris, Strabes, Ron (hope I didn't miss anyone) especially the detailed thinking behind your decision Chris.  This is such an important question for everyone.  Another thought I have about our properties is in the SHTF sooner rather then later scenario and how a cozy cabin in the mountains will be a great temporary get away for a family so we may be prepping one of them with food, etc. just in case.  It's good to wait when you know values will continue to fall but what makes me nervous is waiting too long and then there's a scramble for the, get out of the city , properties and a landlord who can get twice what their getting now and suddenly renters are part of the panic herd they were trying to avoid to begin with.  I've learned that any decision I've made out of fear came back to bite me in the end (pun intended) and level headed non emotional decisions have worked for the better but now it's so tempting to act on fear or maybe it's just fear of being with the madding crowd and how I don't want to be in any line (gov. etc.) What is rationally going to happen, answer your fears with rational action and a little planning can go a long way.

In our business I can see that there are people with money and in a collapsed economy there will still be people with money who want and need to feel safe.(just to avoid possible criticism, we do a great deal of charitable giving and will continue to even in the toughest of times)  I hope we can help with that.  Good luck to all of you and may timing be on your side. As a Christian I'd also like to say God luck to you as well (smile).

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Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

Chris, I reread your post and I my thoughts are from my own vantage point and I'm think you might be interested in this current situation here in upscale, second home market.  We did consider putting one of our vacation homes on the market (increase cash reserves) and the agent/ broker was willing to list at our desired price (positive cash flow business, turn key) but with 80-90% foreclosures and short sales currently listed the chances of selling at profitable level are about the same as a banana flavored Popsicle on the asphalt in Vegas in July lasting more then a nano second. Why put us all through that and besides the agent let us know that people of means are smart enough not to buy at yesterdays (two years ago) prices even if it is a good business.  Soooo, as a business it's a who moved my cheese scenario.  I understand where the "silly ranches" on the market are coming from and I believe it's a matter of survival not just of the fittest but the timeliest as well.  If people of "means" stop visiting the national parks then we too will be in trouble.

Thanks again for your time.

Rocketgirl

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Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/05/moodys-lowers-japan-aaa-foreign.html

Moody's lowered Japan's sovereign debt rating

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Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

One more thing, we advertise on a international website and last week they asked if we would give an interview with CNBC.  Apparently they are interested in us as an example of our type of business and market conditions.  I don't know if they will think this will apply but CM and The Crash Course has changed us as a business and on a personal level as well and I will try my best to get a plug in there for you.  It's the least I can do.  Thanks CM and all the behind the scenes warriors!

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Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

Time to buckle-up; the road ahead is going to get very bumpy.

I came upon this today:

Chart of the Day

While the stock market is up sharply since early March, the economy as well as corporate earnings continue to suffer. Today's chart helps provide some perspective as to the magnitude of the current economic decline. Today's chart illustrates that 12-month, as-reported S&P 500 earnings have declined over 90% over the past 20 months (with over 90% of S&P 500 companies having reported for Q1 2009), making this by far the largest decline on record (the data goes back to 1936). In fact, real earnings have dropped to a record low and if current estimates hold, Q3 2009 will see the first 12-month period during which S&P 500 earnings are negative.

Larry

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Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

Peter Schiff today....WE CAN HAVE WHAT EVER WE WANT

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Chris, anyone? Help, please Re idoctor - :It's Hit the Fan

idoctor,

Thanks for your post "Peter Schiff today....WE CAN HAVE WHAT EVER WE WANT" - I like him, he talks a lot of sense.

HOWEVER, I am now confused.

Chris or whoever,

We have a situation in the UK/USA/(other developed nations?) where we can see potential deflation followed by inflation (?) and further (dramatic?) stock market falls predicated on the housing market (or lack thereof) and unemployment etc. HOWEVER, given Peter S's video blog today we could see a situation where, because of the shift in political stance as a result of its election, India could open up a market and develops its export/import potential, thus changing the horizon.

Are we going to see decoupling, in which case BRIC could succeed and the 'Old World Order' (US/UK/Europe) falls by the wayside, or does coupling still hold, in which case the scenario for 'The West' does not appear so bad?

Any thoughts or input will be welcomed by a confused old fart (please see the section "Vulgarity and Offensiveness" in http://www.answers.com/topic/fart - hope it doesn't offend anyone, it's meant humorously, the question however is serious!)

David

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Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

 Schiff talks about decoupling as if it's a simple business decision that can be made tomorrow in a boardroom. but much of BRIC growth was caused by the global dollar system, the US' global banks (JPM Chase, Citi, BoA, the i-banks), the US' global consumption demand, etc.  those things took generations to create and what looks like efficient BRIC economies today likewise took generations to become coupled to the US.  it seems Schiff thinks this was just a quick hooking up process...it was decades of hard work by milllions of people creating an infinite number of mini-couplings. likewise it isn't just about unhooking a coupler.  BRIC is in serious trouble in the short/med term.  in the long run Schiff is right, though it's less about BRIC as a whole and more about china.  

 

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Thanks Strabes Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

Hi Strabes,

Thanks for your input, gratefully received and noted.

Despite its size I see Brazil as less of a player of the four, China has the population numbers but still had its political encumberances, Russia is, well, Russia(!), India has the population numbers and potential open market in the next year or three. My feeling is that India has the intelligensia and capabilites of being able to devlop internally (hmm, although China could be argued thus), therefore avoiding some of the requirement to have to export to USA.

I'm (still) so confused!

David

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Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

I'm (still) so confused!

Dave that makes two of us

Maybe Jim Rogers can clear some of this up?

Looks like the sun is setting in the west but the sky isn't falling at the moment. I would guess all these realist are going to be right over time but timing is so difficult with so many global complexities & BS all playing out together. I guess I need to invest in a good wedgie board. 

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Re: Rent Vs. Buy?

Thanks for addressing this point Dr. Martenson. I am similarly dealing with a unrealistic market that nobody wants to give up on. Found a great place last week and put in a reasonable offer of 15% below asking......lets just say I'm still in the market. The choice whether to rent or buy seems to be a particular thorn in my side. I appreciate you taking the time to analyze the rent vs buy situation and would be particularly interested in any follow ups by your self or others.

 

Cheers, TJ

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Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan
idoctor wrote:

Peter Schiff today....WE CAN HAVE WHAT EVER WE WANT

EXCEPT OIL!

IEA's Oil Market Report shows world oil supply fell 3.4%
from 2008 Q1 to 2009 Q1 to 84.1 Mb/d
 
 
and the monthly data for April shows a further fall of 0.5 Mb/d .
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Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

That oil chart is very important, but in the interest of promoting better understanding, I'd just like to point out a few additional facts. The terminology used for "oil" is often corrupted, even by the "experts" so I'd like to point out that numbers in the 84-87 Mbpd range indicate "total liquids." This includes crude oil, natural gas plant liquids, and biofuels. Crude oil production is roughly 10 Mbpd less than this (currently around ~71 Mbpd). When you look at the "liquids" picture, things don't look so dire, but you must consider that we're burning food (corn) just to keep the liquids number up while at the same time using natural gas that could be used for heating or electricity. As we move forward, I think we're going to find that there is some small level of substitution that can be done in refineries, which will tend to boost prices for other forms of energy just to keep our liquids situation "under control." Any substitution miracles, however, are generally not increasing efficiency or decreasing production overall, so in that sense, they do nothing to increase the net energy available to society.

A quick look at the ASPO April 2009 newsletter (http://www.peakoil.nl/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/2009_april_oilwatch_mon...) makes it very clear that crude oil essentially hit a plateau in 2005, even though total liquids production increased in that time. Increasing the liquids, though, and calling it "oil" is something like robbing from Peter to pay Paul. The energy had to come from somewhere, and essentially it came from corn or from natural gas liquids that could have been used in other areas of the economy.

I've often though that a better overall measure of economic growth and output should be total energy consumed (this is a simpler proxy for the more accurate "surplus energy available"). I think this has never been truer than it is now. If energy consumption continues to fall, peaking aside, there is no question about it: An economy based on energy consumption will feel a lot of pain.

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Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

Mike,

I completely agree with your view on energy.  I also believe that we can take that metric one step further and convert everything to a carbon or kj or kw equivalent.  This would help consumers know the real cost their purchasing decisions in terms of sustainability and the damage from externalized accounting methodology.  Furthermore if we ever get out of this economic mess we could use it to equalize the playing field with China by introducing a carbon tax on all products foreign and domestic.  People would soon see that the bargains are not so large after all.  We all seem willing to purchase cheap disposable products with massive carbon footprints to save a few bucks at the expense of our future living standard.

 

E

 

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Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

E - Call me the cynic for this post, but I tried being an unrealistic optimist for a while and couldn't find a foundation.

I think there is a general consensus even in America that alternative energy is "good" even though only some of the people might be willing to say that fossil fuels are "bad." At times like this, it is difficult to look at everything from the perspective of what "makes sense" and what is prudent and practical. The actions taken by our government and leaders create such a great deal of dissonance in my mind that I personally need a different way to look at it. I don't think that our government is too dumb to understand the need for American infrastructure, nor do I think they are too dumb to understand that these issues could be politically beneficial (since I believe the public is generally views alternatives positively).

Instead, I think it's plain to see for those willing to look, that the banks and corporate interests have a stranglehold on our government. The amount of secrecy and complexity in the web of interests that is running the show is truly too complicated for me to fully grasp. All I can say is that a lot of things aren't passing the smell test lately. So beyond simply calling our leaders "dumb," I'd say "corrupted" is more likely. Unfortunately, the corruption will never end until the majority of Americans take a stand against this. I'm not sure that that the movement can succeed even in political terms, because the way our system is dysfunctioning right now seems to limit the power of moral politicians. Instead, coming to grips with our nation's own corruption, our own terrible decisions, and our shortcomings as a society and a culture, to the point where Joe Taxpayer/Sixpack actually cares and discusses more about these issues than Britney's latest scandal, will be a signal to me that things are turning around.

Mike

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Re: Rent Vs. Buy?

I just recently bought a house. Like many of you, I believe there is a good chance that the dollar will continue to devalue. My fear was that I would wake up one day and the dollar would be worthless. Even though homes have been in a deflationary mode, at least it is a hard asset that will have some value.I got a 5% 30 year fixed rate with no points, so that influenced my decision.

Regards, David

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Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

 I have been reading this rent/buy discussion with great interest.  I think that one needs to remember one other statement made by Chris Martenson.  He has constantly stated that it is necessary to work out your own strategy and trust your own judgement.  I would add that the "gut feeling" is useful too.

I have bought my house.  In 1999, I found myself on my own with very ittle money, unemployable, despite my degree in science (over 50 and I'd been at home raising six children) and I was sure that the stuff was going to hit the fan then.  (I had been nervous around 1990 too, but that turned out to be temporary.)   I had just half of the equity from the previous family home, and that was not enough to do much at all.  I have no superannuation or investments.  

My decision was to find somewhere that I could afford to live on a very minimal income...  and here I am.  I bought an old house in a small town with an acre of land. It took all of my money, but I have no debt. The house is old enough that it had been functional in the past (without electricity or hot and cold running water) and it still had the original wood stove in the kitchen (which I have been using for the past 9 years.)  I grow most of my food, though grains and carbohydrate are the biggest challenge.  I have chickens...  currently about 17, though that includes 4 roosters from the last "batch"  that hatched at Christmas time... they'll make soup. I have quite a lot of firewood on parts of my block.  I live in the driest state in the driest continent in the world.  Consequently I catch the water that falls on every roof here (house and sheds.)  I have 3 x 9000 litre tanks so far, with two more to go.  It would be cheaper to buy a single large one, but it takes me more than a year to save for each one.  An added advantage is that should any one ever leak or water be lost,   I wouldn't lose it all.  There are some other projects that are underway, but it all takes time.

The unexpected "bonus" of moving to a small (inexpensive, unfashionable) town is that I am able to ride my bicyle to the grocery shop, and anywhere else in the town. My bicycle was a birthday gift from one of my children.  I have an old but reliable car, but the $20 in fuel I save weekly by bicycling to the shop daily is significant, and I don't need to pay to go to the gym either!  I know most of the people here and the community has all of the attributes that people ascribe to "resilience."   This has led to me being elected to local government and a (very) small income, the local barter economy and considerable security. I am fit and healthy and I plan to live here indefinitely.

Whether or not one should buy a house depends upon the resources available,  both financial and physical.  I have expected the fan to be hit for some years, and I don't think that we will be going "back to normal" ever again.   I don't think that new technology can fix this problem.  For example,  http://climateandcapitalism.com/?p=684    I will be growing vegetables, raising chickens and living well, with or without the "200 slaves" that oil input has given me in the past.  From my own point of view,  I even find great satisfaction in being at least partially self sufficient and self reliant and part of an ordinary community.

For those people who are wrestling with the question of whether or not to buy a house,  I can only add that the "gut feeling" needs to be considered also.  I am also grateful for the news, views and information here.

 

 

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Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

All I can find is the summery or the report.  I'm loged in, but can not find full article.

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Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan
Balian wrote:

All I can find is the summery or the report.  I'm loged in, but can not find full article.

Balian,

New Martenson Reports are only available to enrolled members, which pay a fee to gain access to Chris' reports, podcasts, In Session forum threads, newsletters, etc.  See the report here, and click here to become an enrolled member.

Ron

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Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan
Balian wrote:

All I can find is the summery or the report.  I'm loged in, but can not find full article.

Balian - 

Welcome.  Lots of great info here.  If you haven't watched Crash Course you need to - it's the heart and soul of the site.

Also, you need to be a paying subscriber to be able to access the full Martenson Report.  Otherwise, all you'll be able to get to is the summary.

 

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Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

 ejanea - great to hear your story.  agreed that trusting the gut is most important.

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Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

So ejanea, which part of Australia do you live in?

Mike

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Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

 South Australia... about 100km north of Adelaide.

 

 

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Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

How lucky are we in Britain?

'The recession will be over by Christmas,' claims Darling

"Chancellor Alistair Darling predicted the recession will be over by the end of the year, despite more grim economic figures expected today. Mr Darling dismissed criticism that his Budget forecasts were too optimistic and insisted the economy will return to growth by the end of 2009."

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1184688/The-recession-Christmas-claims-Darling-IMF-set-unveil-grim-economic-forecast.html

 

 

 

idoctor's picture
idoctor
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Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

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hpernar
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Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

But still, although I believe in everything you've said Chris, people had lost the opportunity to gain as much as 300% in recent stock market events (let's suppose that they read your posts and they base their decisions on it - and they did not enter the stock market for that reason). Something is wrong.

 

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EndGamePlayer
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GM bankruptcy plan eyes quick sale to gov't

Like this is how to run a government? . . or a company . .

GM bankruptcy plan eyes quick sale to gov't: http://www.reuters.com/article/mergersNews/idUSN1943363120090519

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Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

I want to be absolutely clear that this site does not offer short-term trading advice.

What we do here is peer into the future and make long-range assessments of where we are headed and why.  Our goal is to illuminate the future, and we do this by using the best data we can find and by spotting the larger trends.

Claiming the precise ability to pick bottoms is something that I will gladly leave to the salesmen and financial hustlers.  But 300% gains?  I'm trying to find the right words here...but the ones coming  to mind are not especially favorable.

I am quite proud of my long range predictions and trends-spotting, which include:

  • Calling the housing market as a bubble back in 2005 (and 2006 and 2007....)
  • Being bearish on the dollar since 2003
  • Being bullish on gold since 2002

And on May 27th last year, I wrote this:

My assessment is that the economic and financial risks are exceptionally high and possibly historically unique. This is no time for complacency. A defensive stance is both warranted and prudent. A 50% - 70% (real) decline in the main stock market indexes is a distinct possibility, and portfolios should be ‘crash-proofed.'

For the record, when that call was made, the Dow was sitting roughly 4,000 points higher than it is right now, and lost almost exactly 50% by low of March of 2009, a year later.  Very few insitutions or analysts made that call at that time.

Since the base data that I trust the most (import/export activity, sales tax, and income tax receipts, and insider selling) are still firmly pointing "down," I have yet to switch over to becoming a believer that the tide has turned.  It will someday, and I will certainly be "late," because I am not at all interested in trying to pick exact tops and exact bottoms - the risk is too great.

In major bear markets, the goal is to not lose all your money.  We are in a major, whopper of a bear market.  One for the books.

Remember, people lost their money in 1929, smart people lost their money in 1930, and the really, really smart people lost their money in 1931.

Feel free to try and outsmart the market squiggles if you must, but be aware that this is not the purpose of this site.  

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Dogs_In_A_Pile
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Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan
hpernar wrote:

But still, although I believe in everything you've said Chris, people had lost the opportunity to gain as much as 300% in recent stock market events (let's suppose that they read your posts and they base their decisions on it - and they did not enter the stock market for that reason). Something is wrong.

There certainly is something wrong.  They didn't trust themselves to determine the correct course of action to take with their money.

The actual gains were closer to 700%, because for nearly every upward run the market made, there was a large pullback and digestion period and it was so incredibly easy to make money trading to the downside.

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idoctor
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Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

hpernar hope you are doing well in the market I know I am happy I am in with 1/2 of my $$$. I feel this market should be 4000 on the dow at the moment & have little doubt it will be 4500 in a bad recession & 1000 to 800 in a depression over time. So I feel this rally is a cheep thrill at best.

Wish I would have found the CM site sooner before I gave up so much earlier. This site has made me much more aware of the value of capital preservation. Depressions are for zeroing us all out which is what I feel Chris is trying to help us all see & trying to prevent. Now I have the other half of my $$$ in cash & PM. I always have a quick finger on my mouse with day trading & hope I can get lucky & not lose too much more.

I am betting we have been through 2/3rd of this rally & have 1/3rd left with all the money they have thrown at the mess. WHO REALLY KNOWS?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1128641812&play=1

http://www.cnbc.com/id/30838252\

 

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Mike Pilat
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Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

Chris: I must say your May 27th piece is a true gem. I hadn't read it before, but it's the sort of foundational outlook that I think would be worth revisiting periodically. Thank you for linking that!

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Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan
Mike Pilat wrote:

Chris: I must say your May 27th piece is a true gem. I hadn't read it before, but it's the sort of foundational outlook that I think would be worth revisiting periodically. Thank you for linking that!

Thanks Mike.  You know what?  I just re-read it and it turns out that was a pretty good string of predictions.  I can't imagine doing much better than that. 

But I agree that the format was pretty good and is worth revisiting.

Best,
Chris

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hpernar
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Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

Maybe my post has been misunderstood. What I meant was - if stock markets are always ahead of the real (?) economy, what is this bullish rally telling us? And I know about insider sell-off on a massive scale, expected - delayed impact of x0000000000000000000000000 dollars pumped into the system etc. But what is happening right now? The stock markets around the world are brutally bullish. Look at the Baltic Dry Index as well...

Dont get me wrong, I am pesimistic as hell, but armageddon hasn't happened yet... Are all those investors just plain silly / don't get simple math / blind? Or do the shadowpeople (and I do not mean David Icke) plan for something else?

Every day I expect things to start happening, but somehow (miracle?:)) people have again been fooled that everything is OK now (hey, what happened to crisis?). So they react. And this is what we see now in stock markets. It's like they have a special button - "Crisis" and next to it another one named "Recovery" (speaking of media). Oh what a lovely orchestra this is...

So I assume that this bullish trend will soon reverse because it is planned that way. If not, then what? Miraculous invention waiting to happen? New Tesla on the way?

Virtual dollars, virtual crisis? What is real in this strange setting?

Dogs_In_A_Pile's picture
Dogs_In_A_Pile
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Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan
hpernar wrote:

Maybe my post has been misunderstood. What I meant was - if stock markets are always ahead of the real (?) economy, what is this bullish rally telling us? ..... But what is happening right now? The stock markets around the world are brutally bullish. Look at the Baltic Dry Index as well......

Virtual dollars, virtual crisis? What is real in this strange setting?

hpernar -

I am posting addressing the context of determining trading opportunities in the market only - not from having a sense of what is going on in the world.

What is happening in the market right now (or any other time) DOES NOT MATTER!!!!  The market is going to go up, down or sideways.  Trade the market in the direction the market is moving.  Take advantage of the volatility and the movement and don't concern yourself with the "why", because the "why" just doesn't matter.  The market is moving up - I don't care what is driving it up, whether the reason is legitimate or not, whether the underlying fundamentals are sound or not - I just trade the market in the direction that it is moving.

You should be aware of what is going on to gauge volatility, and get a sense of how long a move in a particular direction is going to last, but in the end, you just don't care what is moving the market, you only care that the market moves.

Money made in a trade in a market that is moving up on false confidence (the current sucker's rally is a great example) is still spendable.

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leo0648
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Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

Chris, thank you for giving us the long term view.  This site was never intended to be a place for short term investing strategies.  Even with the dollar falling, I still think the market could correct.  Anyone here who had the guts to buy Citigroup at $1, congrats.  I hope you sold.

 

I do have one question for Chris and anyone else who may have an answer to this.  How do you feel with Peter Schiff's strategy on China.  Jim Rogers and Marc Faber are also bullish on China.  Do you think that China will still suffer and fail to decouple?  My biggest fear with investing in China is that another oil spike would destroy their economy, although they aren't as dependent as we are per capita.

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DrKrbyLuv
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Posts: 1995
Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

Mike Pilat said:

E - Call me the cynic for this post, but I tried being an unrealistic optimist for a while and couldn't find a foundation.

I think there is a general consensus even in America that alternative energy is "good" even though only some of the people might be willing to say that fossil fuels are "bad." At times like this, it is difficult to look at everything from the perspective of what "makes sense" and what is prudent and practical. The actions taken by our government and leaders create such a great deal of dissonance in my mind that I personally need a different way to look at it. I don't think that our government is too dumb to understand the need for American infrastructure, nor do I think they are too dumb to understand that these issues could be politically beneficial (since I believe the public is generally views alternatives positively).

Instead, I think it's plain to see for those willing to look, that the banks and corporate interests have a stranglehold on our government. The amount of secrecy and complexity in the web of interests that is running the show is truly too complicated for me to fully grasp. All I can say is that a lot of things aren't passing the smell test lately. So beyond simply calling our leaders "dumb," I'd say "corrupted" is more likely. Unfortunately, the corruption will never end until the majority of Americans take a stand against this. I'm not sure that that the movement can succeed even in political terms, because the way our system is dysfunctioning right now seems to limit the power of moral politicians. Instead, coming to grips with our nation's own corruption, our own terrible decisions, and our shortcomings as a society and a culture, to the point where Joe Taxpayer/Sixpack actually cares and discusses more about these issues than Britney's latest scandal, will be a signal to me that things are turning around.

Mike - I usually learn something from your posts and this was no exception.  You're able to say things in a couple paragraphs that would take me a full page.  Thanks!

Larry

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