Daily Digest

Daily Digest - September 7

Monday, September 7, 2009, 10:54 AM
  • Unemployment Trust Fund Nearly Broke…
  • Massachusetts: Workers Exhausting Unemployment Benefits
  • When Will the (bLs) Unemployment Rate hit 10%?
  • Broader (bLs) Unemployment (Chart)
  • Broad Unemployment Across the U.S. (Map, Interactive)
  • Unemployment Report Distortions
  • Shadow Statistics Unemployment
  • 25,000,000 Americans are unemployed or underemployed
  • Percent Job Losses in Post WWII Recessions (Chart)
  • Unemployment rate to 9.7%, 216,000 jobs lost
  • Headline Source: Bloomberg or the Onion?
  • Survey: “The Anguish of Unemployment”
  • A Surge in Homeless Children
  • Sunday Funnies (A day late)

Economy (Labor "Unemployment" Day Edition)

Unemployment Trust Fund Nearly Broke…

Point found an interesting link on the unemployment system that has an interactive map and a table of trust fund balance by state along with the amount each state has now borrowed to keep paying unemployment benefits.

Massachusetts: Workers Exhausting Unemployment Benefits

This is a story that will keep building as workers exhaust their extended unemployment benefits ...

From the Boston Globe: State jobless pay to end for many

Massachusetts is experiencing its first wave of jobless workers to exhaust unemployment benefits after nearly two years of rising unemployment, state labor officials said.

The state this week sent out letters notifying about 2,500 jobless workers that they had or would soon receive their last unemployment checks, having used up state and federal extensions that provided up to 79 weeks, or about 18 months, of benefits. The state expects about 21,000 jobless workers to run out of unemployment benefits by Thanksgiving.

When Will the (bLs) Unemployment Rate hit 10%?

Although the unemployment rate is noisy month-to-month, we can use the graph and formula from Unemployment and Net Jobs to guess when the unemployment rate will reach 10%.

This graph from that previous posts shows the quarterly change in net jobs (on the x-axis) as a percentage of the civilian workforce, and the change in the unemployment rate on the y-axis.

The data is for the last 40 years: 1969 through Q2 2009.

Broader (bLs) Unemployment (Chart)

Broad Unemployment Across the U.S. (Map, Interactive)

Unemployment Report Distortions

Shadow Statistics Unemployment

Chart of U.S. Unemployment

25,000,000 Americans are unemployed or underemployed

Yet when we parse the data we realize that 25,000,000 Americans are unemployed or underemployed with half a million more coming our way this Friday. The employment situation on an aggregate basis simply does not reflect the devastation of this current recession. A recession that can destroy $11.2 trillion in American household wealth is not a common recession.

Percent Job Losses in Post WWII Recessions (Chart)

Unemployment rate to 9.7%, 216,000 jobs lost

Non-farm payrolls in the U.S. economy peaked during the business cycle ending February 2001 at 132.5 million. A full 102 months later in August 2009, they were 131.2 million, 1.3 million lower. This is the weakest growth from the peak of one business cycle to the trough of the next since the Great Depression.

Headline Source: Bloomberg or the Onion?

As noted earlier in comments, its hard to guess the true source of this headline:

• U.S. Recovery That’s Leaving Workers Jobless May Add to Company Profits

“Employers kept Americans’ working hours near a record low in August, signaling that economic growth is poised to reward companies with added profits while postponing any recovery in the job market.”

Survey: “The Anguish of Unemployment”

The survey shows that the great recession of 2007-2009 may have long-lasting financial and psychological effects on millions of people, and therefore on the nation’s social fabric. Two thirds of respondents say they are depressed, over half have borrowed money from friends or relatives, and a quarter have skipped mortgage or rent payments. ...

A Surge in Homeless Children

While current national data are not available, the number of schoolchildren in homeless families appears to have risen by 75 percent to 100 percent in many districts over the last two years, according to Barbara Duffield, policy director of the National Association for the Education of Homeless Children and Youth, an advocacy group.

There were 679,000 homeless students reported in 2006-7, a total that surpassed one million by last spring, Ms. Duffield said.

Sunday Funnies (A day late)

20 Comments

Davos's picture
Davos
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Re: Daily Digest - September 7

And if I haven't beaten the "Unemployment" Day drum enough, Barry has another fine post on his site that I just saw after the DD went live.

10 years/1 decade and we lost a quarter of a million jobs!

So I'd love for an economist to explain the fundemental workings of a "jobless recovery" bacause in my book that is just one more oxymoronic statement. What truly scares me about this chart is the source. Since it is from the bLs I can be confident that our net loss is way the heck south of 250k.

all employess private industry

Ken C's picture
Ken C
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Re: Daily Digest - September 7
Davos wrote:

 

So I'd love for an economist to explain the fundemental workings of a "jobless recovery" bacause in my book that is just one more oxymoronic statement.

 

Davos,

I was thinking exactly the same thing about "jobless recovery".  Just another way of changing the meaning of  "not as bad as before" to "this is really great".

The U.S. has not yet disappeared into a Black Hole so we must be doing pretty well.

 

Ken

 

Davos's picture
Davos
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Re: Daily Digest - September 7
kenc wrote:
Davos wrote:

 

So I'd love for an economist to explain the fundemental workings of a "jobless recovery" bacause in my book that is just one more oxymoronic statement.

 

Davos,

I was thinking exactly the same thing about "jobless recovery".  Just another way of changing the meaning of  "not as bad as before" to "this is really great".

The U.S. has not yet disappeared into a Black Hole so we must be doing pretty well.

 

Ken

 

Hello Ken: Nope, your right, I'm quite in awe at how resistant it is. I'm also realizing more and more each day what blew it up - money and lack of regulation. Basically what the Fed did and didn't do. I could be very wrong, but I truly believe this is going to be played out in the currency market. Take it easy

idoctor's picture
idoctor
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Re: Daily Digest - September 7

Surge in Homeless Children Strains School Districts

When the economic ramifications collide with the social ramifications of the bad seeds that have been sowed for far too long......LOOKOUT!!

On a daily bases I deal with the poorest most abused individuals to the wealthiest most affluent types. The lack of common sense, values & general thinking (if there is any??) is mind blowing. Wait when the illusions disappear & the real world appears.....not going to be fun for anyone.

I really wonder if our society has wasted far too much time polishing turds of every kind. 

Amazing how the USA touts the cry of "Freedom" so proudly but will not let true free markets work. Let the free market work for god sakesSmile! Lots of illusions....

Davos's picture
Davos
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
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Posts: 3620
Re: Daily Digest - September 7
idoctor wrote:

Surge in Homeless Children Strains School Districts

When the economic ramifications collide with the social ramifications of the bad seeds that have been sowed for far too long......LOOKOUT!!

On a daily bases I deal with the poorest most abused individuals to the wealthiest most affluent types. The lack of common sense, values & general thinking (if there is any??) is mind blowing. Wait when the illusions disappear & the real world appears.....not going to be fun for anyone.

I really wonder if our society has wasted far too much time polishing turds of every kind. 

Amazing how the USA touts the cry of "Freedom" so proudly but will not let true free markets work. Let the free market work for god sakesSmile! Lots of illusions....

I know what you mean!

Davos's picture
Davos
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Re: Daily Digest - September 7

"He who goes borrowing, goes sorrowing," said Mr Cheng.

It was a quote from US founding father Benjamin Franklin.

1 tree to cut up then off for a bike ride in the National Forest...

idoctor's picture
idoctor
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Re: Daily Digest - September 7

Davos it is fun to reflect.......Smilea lot has happened in 1 year.....if only we knew how & when the next leg will expose itself......damn...timing is everything anymore.

Thanks to this site common sense approach to reality I went long Gold, Silver & mining stocks. So far so good.

Classic Peter Schiff

Peter Schiff, September 9th - MONEY BOMB

idoctor's picture
idoctor
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Re: Daily Digest - September 7

US Dollar is Collapsing Euro Rising to $1.47 says expert Sept. 7 2009

What Is Money?

Peter Schiff Vlog - 16 8% Unemployment

saxplayer00o1's picture
saxplayer00o1
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Re: Daily Digest - September 7

Does anyone get booted from this message board for using 4-letter words in their posts?

I was thinking of a few while reading this.

 

UN Says New Currency Is Needed to Fix Broken ‘Confidence Game’

"An organization should be created to manage real exchange rates between countries measured by purchasing power and adjusted to inflation differentials and development levels, it said.

“The most important lesson of the global crisis is that financial markets don’t get prices right,” Flassbeck said."

FireJack's picture
FireJack
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Re: Daily Digest - September 7

Labour Day Musings II

Anyone been reading Denninger lately. Not sure how seriously to take what he says but on a purely economic standpoint he has some pretty scary things to say. On his labour day musings he saying we have weeks or months left if the before a collapse if the US tries to start another bubble.

With hindsite we can almost assume they will do the worst thing and try another bubble so collapse in weeks or months?  Is Denninger on the money or do people more knowledgeable than me say he's a little overblown? I get the feeling I should start stocking food not sure if I should do it for imminent collapse or years from now.

admin's picture
admin
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Re: Daily Digest - September 7
saxplayer00o1 wrote:

Does anyone get booted from this message board for using 4-letter words in their posts?

Yes.  Laughing

DavidC's picture
DavidC
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Posts: 243
Re: Daily Digest - September 7

Aww, go on Admin! Here's some...

Love, dirt, gold, Hank, Obam (whoops, that's not enough!)...

DavidC

Ken C's picture
Ken C
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Feb 13 2009
Posts: 753
Re: Daily Digest - September 7
DavidC wrote:

Aww, go on Admin! Here's some...

Love, dirt, gold, Hank, Obam (whoops, that's not enough!)...

DavidC

 

How about "work" that is a 4 letter word?Wink

saxplayer00o1's picture
saxplayer00o1
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Jul 30 2009
Posts: 4149
Re: Daily Digest - September 7

Since I'm a musician, the bad part is that those 4 letter words are most of my vocabularyCry

OK, back to the news....

It looks like the 300 largest global pensions have lost $1.5 Trillion:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601082&sid=aihUCYwYGays

 

DavidC's picture
DavidC
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Re: Daily Digest - September 7

I'm with kenc, work...(phew!).

DavidC

Davos's picture
Davos
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Re: Daily Digest - September 7

Getting better all the time!

Farmer Brown's picture
Farmer Brown
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Re: Daily Digest - September 7

Karl has been on fire lately.  Here he expands on his latest set of graphs (apologies if this has already been posted}

http://market-ticker.org/archives/1415-Labor-Day-Musings-Part-II.html

 

SkylightMT's picture
SkylightMT
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Posts: 125
Re: Daily Digest - September 7
FireJack wrote:

Labour Day Musings II

Anyone been reading Denninger lately. Not sure how seriously to take what he says but on a purely economic standpoint he has some pretty scary things to say. On his labour day musings he saying we have weeks or months left if the before a collapse if the US tries to start another bubble.

With hindsite we can almost assume they will do the worst thing and try another bubble so collapse in weeks or months?  Is Denninger on the money or do people more knowledgeable than me say he's a little overblown? I get the feeling I should start stocking food not sure if I should do it for imminent collapse or years from now.

 

I read Karl multiple times a day. He can be abrasive and obnoxious, but I think he really knows his stuff.

What Karl hasn't really said is what a collapse will look like, exactly. He doesn't come out and say we're going from a first world to a third world country, like Argentina did. He might simply be referring to the stock market crashing, or the dollar crashing, or both... his forum is full of doom and gloomers proclaiming the end of western civilization, but Karl seems to stay away from making social and cultural predictions. He sticks to the math, mostly.

So your definition of "collapse" might be different from his. But other than that, I think he is on the money. Many, many of his ideas complement Chris'.

saxplayer00o1's picture
saxplayer00o1
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Posts: 4149
Re: Daily Digest - September 7

 

 WEF ranks US among most economically unstable nations

 

FireJack's picture
FireJack
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Joined: Feb 8 2009
Posts: 156
Re: Daily Digest - September 7

There was an article on the oil drum by Gail the Acturary where she talked about how if there is a banking collapse due to a loss of capital there will be an oil production collapse also.

Karl seems to think a banking collapse will be self contained but if Gail is to belived everything would end pretty quicly.

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