Daily Digest

Daily Digest - March 31

Wednesday, March 31, 2010, 9:46 AM
  • Could This Be Start of 'The Great Bear Market in Bonds'?
  • Ireland’s ‘Worst Fears Surpassed’ on Banks’ Capital
  • Companies Sell Junk Bonds To Fund Bankruptcy Exit
  • Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, to Miss Incinerator Loan Payment
  • Bank of Spain Sees Lower GDP, Bigger Budget Gap Than Government
  • NY Suspends Construction Projects In Fiscal Crisis
  • Illinois Looking to Cash In Big by Privatizing the Lottery
  • Paterson Witholds School Payments
  • Portuguese Central Bank Almost Halves Growth Forecasts
  • Rescue Fears Trigger Greek Bond Sell-Off
  • Chavez Cash Crunch Looms on Oil, Morgan Stanley Says
  • Kansas Courts Plan Shut-Down Days To Deal With Budget Cuts
  • Fannie Mae February Portfolio Down, Delinquencies Jump
  • Figures On Government Spending And Debt
  • Foreclosure Properties May Take 5 Years To Be Absorbed Into Market
  • Foreclosure Experts Forecast Explosive Numbers in Homelessness
  • CMBS Delinquencies Increase to 6 Percent in February
  • Silver Whistleblower Interview on King World News
  • Some States Face Greek-Style Debt Woes
  • IMF Cuts German GDP Forecast, Urges Deficit Reduction
  • Fed’s Fisher Says U.S. Can’t Ignore Effect of Deficit on Yields
  • Bills Would Transfer Control Of Detroit’s Two Pension Funds To MERS
  • From Bucolic Bliss To 'Gated Ghetto'


Could This Be Start of 'The Great Bear Market in Bonds'? (CNBC)

Last week's poorly received series of Treasury auctions looks now to be a fixed-income flare, a warning shot that too much debt amid too little fiscal restraint is making the bond market frothy and ready to come to an unsightly crescendo. And the damage could hit not only Treasurys but also agency-backed bonds as well as corporates with a longer term than two or three years.

"This is the last leg of money coming off the sidelines, the final rotation into the bond market," says Bob Froelich, senior managing director at The Hartford in Simsbury, Conn. "This is the beginning of the end. The bond market is a bubble. It's getting ready to burst."

Ireland’s ‘Worst Fears Surpassed’ on Banks’ Capital

Ireland’s banks may need at least 31.8 billion euros ($42.7 billion) in new capital after a real- estate slump left them crippled by mounting bad loans. The fund-raising requirement was announced after the National Asset Management Agency, the country’s so-called bad bank, said it will apply an average discount of 47 percent on the first block of loans it is buying from lenders, and the financial regulator set new capital targets.

Companies Sell Junk Bonds To Fund Bankruptcy Exit

Junk bond sales have surged to records every month since December as companies contend with "wall of maturity" over the next few years, prompting a rush to refinance debt ahead of the quickly approaching repayment deadlines. In February, U.S. high-yield bond sales posted their busiest month on record, with $15.8 billion of new issuance, strategists said. For bankrupt companies, "high-yield is a real option," said Mark Podgainy, senior director in the New York office of Getzler Henrich & Associates. "How long will the market be favorable for that to take place? For this year, as long as Fed keeps rates low."

Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, to Miss Incinerator Loan Payment

Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, the capital of the sixth-most-populous U.S. state, will miss an April 1 loan payment to Covanta Holding Corp., said Michael Casey, the city’s interim business manager. Harrisburg faces $68 million in debt service payments this year connected to a trash-to-energy incinerator that Fairfield, New Jersey-based Covanta operates. The payments on the $282 million in incinerator debt are almost four times what the city of about 47,000 raises through property taxes, according to its budget.

Bank of Spain Sees Lower GDP, Bigger Budget Gap Than Government

Spain’s economy will grow half as much as the government forecasts next year, making the deficit- cutting process slower than the Finance Ministry expects, the Bank of Spain said. Spain’s gross domestic product will grow 0.8 percent next year, the Bank of Spain said in its monthly bulletin in Madrid today. That compares with a government forecast of 1.8 percent.

NY Suspends Construction Projects In Fiscal Crisis

Gov. David Paterson is suspending hundreds of current and new construction projects because of New York's budget woes, including a highway to Fort Drum and a major interchange on Long Island. Paterson administration officials told The Associated Press on Tuesday that all projects not paid for by federal economic stimulus funds will be delayed until the Legislature and the governor agree on a 2010-11 budget or emergency funding.

Illinois Looking to Cash In Big by Privatizing the Lottery

The State of Illinois will take money anywhere they can get it. So, taking a page from the Daley administration, the state has hired a consulting to figure out how to privatize the state’s lottery, reports Crain’s Chicago Business. The state awarded an 18-month $3.95 million contract to the New York based consulting firm Oliver Wyman Group.

“This is the first state lottery making the move to go private”, said Jodie Winnett, acting superintendent of the Illinois Lottery.

Paterson Witholds School Payments (New York)

Governor David Paterson has once again put off some payments that the state owes to schools, citing lack of money. Governor Paterson, who originally included the school aid money in emergency spending bills approved by the legislature, now says he's going to withhold $2.1 billion dollars in school aid payments after all, due to "severe cash flow difficulties".

Portuguese Central Bank Almost Halves Growth Forecasts

The Portuguese economy, facing a debt crisis closely watched by financial markets, is set to grow by 0.4 percent this year the central bank said on Tuesday, almost halving an earlier estimate. The bank, which had forecast growth of 0.7 percent previously, said the recovery could be held back particularly by proposed budget cuts.

Rescue Fears Trigger Greek Bond Sell-Off

Yields on Monday’s €5bn syndicated bond rose more than a quarter of a percentage point to 6.30 per cent, a big sell-off for a new issue. Yields have an inverse relation with prices. The bond was trading 3.5 percentage points over German Bunds which is close to a record premium for Greek bonds. Greece’s unexpected sale of 12-year bonds – a re-opening of an earlier issue due to mature in 2022 - raised only €390m, less than the sale’s €1bn upper limit.

Chavez Cash Crunch Looms on Oil, Morgan Stanley Says

Venezuela now faces the risk that oil prices won’t rise enough in coming years to offset declines in production, forcing it to use savings to fund spending, the report said. “Venezuela may be hard pressed to avoid its day of reckoning,” analysts Giuliana Pardelli and Daniel Volberg said.

Kansas Courts Plan Shut-Down Days To Deal With Budget Cuts

State-level courts in Kansas, including in Sedgwick County, will be closed on three Fridays in April, starting on April 9, and once again on May 7 because of budget cuts. The closings are the result of state budget shortfalls and slashed judicial budgets, forcing the courts to put employees on unpaid days off during the closings.

Fannie Mae February Portfolio Down, Delinquencies Jump

Fannie Mae (FNM.P) (FNM.N), the largest provider of funding for U.S. home mortgages, on Tuesday said its mortgage investment portfolio shrank in February, while delinquencies on loans it guarantees accelerated. The portfolio decreased by an annualized 14.2 percent to $725.9 billion in February from $735.2 billion in January, the Washington-based company said in its monthly summary.

Figures On Government Spending And Debt

Total public debt subject to limit March 29 12,630,081

Statutory debt limit 14,294,000

Total public debt outstanding March 29 12,686,250

Operating balance March 29 149,440

Net interest fiscal year 2010 thru Feb 86,453

Net interest same period 2009 74,981

Deficit fiscal year 2010 thru Feb 651,602

Deficit same period 2009 589,802

Receipts fiscal year 2010 thru Feb 800,538

Receipts same period 2009 860,786

Outlays fiscal year 2010 thru Feb 1,452,140

Outlays same period 2009 1,450,689

Gold assets in March 11,041

Foreclosure Properties May Take 5 Years To Be Absorbed Into Market

The shadow inventory of homes and other residential properties exceeds 6 million, which will prolong the recovery of the U.S. housing market. The inventory of properties that have not yet been completed as foreclosures, but are under distress represent a growing inventory to be absorbed by the market.

Foreclosure Experts Forecast Explosive Numbers in Homelessness

Foreclosure experts at USHUD.com and Heavy Hammer Inc. today warned of skyrocketing homelessness as high unemployment and foreclosure rates continue to impede economic recovery. Citing a combination of record rental vacancies and residential foreclosure rates, Heavy Hammer Inc. CEO Michael Urbanski said true numbers of displaced Americans are masked by "assimilated homelessness," a term describing those who have lost homes or can no longer afford rent and have sought refuge with friends and family members.

CMBS Delinquencies Increase to 6 Percent in February

The delinquent unpaid balance for commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS) increased to $47.82 billion in February, soaring $1.87 billion from January, according to the latest Monthly CMBS Delinquency Report released Sunday by investment rating agency Realpoint, LLC.

Silver Whistleblower Interview on King World News (Posted by zeroenergy21)

"Could be the largest fraud in history" ... 100 to 1 paper to physical. Andrew Maguire talks about wealthy Asians waiting for the right moment to take down the naked short sellers of Silver and Gold.

Some States Face Greek-Style Debt Woes (Posted by truenorth)

California, New York and other U.S. states are showing many of the same signs of debt overload that recently took Greece to the brink -- budgets that will not balance, accounting that masks debt, the use of derivatives to plug holes, and armies of retired public workers who are counting on benefits that are proving harder and harder to pay. And states are responding in sometimes desperate ways, raising concerns that they, too, could face a debt crisis.

IMF Cuts German GDP Forecast, Urges Deficit Reduction

The International Monetary Fund cut its growth forecast for Germany after a recovery in Europe’s largest economy came to a halt, and said the government needs a “credible” plan to reduce its deficit. The IMF expects the German economy to expand 1.2 percent this year and 1.7 percent in 2011, the Washington-based lender said in a report published today. In January, the fund forecast growth of 1.5 percent in 2010 and 1.9 percent next year.

Fed’s Fisher Says U.S. Can’t Ignore Effect of Deficit on Yields

“Even under the most optimistic of scenarios, large deficits will be run for as far as the eye can see,” Fisher said in the text of a speech today in Tucson, Arizona. “The markets, fearing the consequences of runaway deficit financing, have bid up longer-term nominal rates, resulting in a yield curve that is now historically steep.”

Bills Would Transfer Control Of Detroit’s Two Pension Funds To MERS

The pension funds’ assets depreciated by roughly $1 billion between 2008 and 2009, White said, while costs have increased, a trend that’s expected to continue.

From Bucolic Bliss To 'Gated Ghetto' (Hemet, CA)

They bought their 5,000-square-foot house for $440,000 in 2006. It's probably worth about $170,000 now..... There are dozens of places like Willowalk, and they are turning into America's newest slums, says Christopher Leinberger, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution. With home values at a fraction of their peak, he said, it no longer makes sense to live so far from the commercial centers where jobs are concentrated.

Please send article submissions to: [email protected]


saxplayer00o1's picture
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Re: Daily Digest - March 31

"March 31 (Bloomberg) -- China may curb purchases of U.S. Treasuries this year as its first trade deficit in 17 years leaves it with fewer dollars to invest, causing yields to climb, according to Societe Generale SA."

"March 31 (Bloomberg) -- Dan Fuss, whose Loomis Sayles Bond Fund beat 95 percent of competitors in the past year, says Bill Gross got it right by forecasting declines for U.S. Treasuries.

U.S. 10-year yields will rise past 4 percent next year as the government sells record amounts of debt, from 3.86 percent today, Fuss said in an interview from Tokyo on Bloomberg Television. “Bonds have seen their best days,” Gross, who runs the world’s biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., said last week on Bloomberg Radio."

"France's public deficit reached 7.5 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2009, its highest level ever and more than twice the maximum agreed for members of the European Union. The French budget deficit hit 144.8 billion euros last year, according to figures released by national statistics office Insee on Wednesday.

The increase soared to 80.1 billion euros more than 2008's.

Insee attributes France's growing deficit to a sharp drop in government revenues and a simultaneous increase in public spending.

Over the same period, France's public debt rose to 1.489 trillion euros or 77.6 per cent of GDP, up from 67.5 per cent in 2008.

Insee forecasts that debt will increase again in 2010, reaching 83.2 per cent of GDP this year and 87.1 per cent in 2012. Debt levels will not begin to fall until 2013, according to the statistics office."

"March 31 (Bloomberg) -- Italy’s ability to tackle its high debt amid low economic growth “will be tested,” Moody’s Investors Service said.

Italy is struggling to shake off a recession that saw the economy contract 5.1 percent last year, the most in at least three decades. Debt will rise this year to 117 percent of gross domestic product, the second-highest in the EU, after Greece, according to European Union forecasts.

“The government faces some challenges in growing out of its high public-debt levels given the current context of low economic growth,” Alexander Kockerbeck, a Moody’s analyst, said in a report released today."

"Fiscal Risk’

“The increasing fiscal risk premium is bound to push yields up,” said Eiji Dohke, chief strategist in Tokyo at UBS Securities, one of the 23 primary dealers that are required to bid at government debt sales. “The pace at which banks buy JGBs will probably slow.”

The Ministry of Finance said in December it will boost total issuance to a record 144.3 trillion yen in the year starting tomorrow.

Japan’s national debt will increase to 973 trillion yen by the end of March 2011, the Finance Ministry said in January. The debt level may rise to 246 percent of gross domestic product by 2014, according to the International Monetary Fund."

"The government is scheduled to borrow a record gross 4.57 trillion rupees from the market in 2010/11 to fund its fiscal deficit estimated at 5.5 percent of the gross domestic product."

"March 31 (Bloomberg) -- Greece may pay about 13 billion euros ($17.5 billion) more in interest on the debt it sells this year than it would have if yields had stayed at their pre-crisis levels relative to Germany’s, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and Credit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank.

Interest on the three bonds it sold this year, including a seven-year note offered this week, will amount to 7.7 billion euros over the life of the securities, compared with 3.8 billion euros if they had sold them at the average extra yield, or spread, over German debt that prevailed between 2000 and 2008, the data show. Greece will incur a further 18.9 billion euros of interest on this year’s remaining issuance, compared with 9.4 billion euros before the crisis began, according to Bloomberg calculations based on Credit Agricole data."

.......................7A) Moody's cuts five Greek banks ratings

"Pittsburgh's multimillion-dollar pension liability is set to balloon to $1.04 billion today, when city officials must comply with a state requirement to report retirement obligations to police, firefighters and other city workers.

With $296 million on hand in February, the city has about 30 cents for every dollar required to cover pension promises to about 3,200 employees and thousands of pensioners."

"There are 16,000 publicly owned wastewater treatment plants in the United States that operate 100,000 major pumping stations, 600,000 miles of sanitary sewers and 200,000 miles of storm sewers, according to U.S. EPA. That system received a grade of D- from the American Society of Civil Engineers in its latest "Report Card for America's Infrastructure." The society noted that billions of gallons of untreated wastewater is discharged each year because of lagging investments.

Hornback said many communities would be facing a difficult challenge even if the economy were more robust. Communities historically "undervalue" their water and sewer services, charging users less than is needed to keep the systems operating to modern standards.

"The pipes in the ground are in some cases over 100 years old," he said."

"The conference report, written by senior adviser Richard Anderson, estimates that local governments will have to spend between $2.5 trillion and $4.8 trillion over the next 20 years to fulfill those demands for improved water and sewer systems.

There is a "vague and false confidence among Congress that they have already addressed the issue by granting $60 billion to cities over two decades ago to build water infrastructure when the cost in a single year (2008) is over $40 billion in capital investments and another $50 billion for operations and maintenance," Anderson wrote. "A more thorough understanding of how much is spent on public water and wastewater is a necessary first step in establishing a framework for a National Strategy.""

"Two Jefferson County commis­sioners who had favored bank­ruptcy to solve the county's $3.2 billion sewer debt crisis said they will agree to settle with Wall Street creditors if the banks cancel ap­proximately $2 billion of the money that's owed to creditors.

Commissioners Jim Carns and Bobby Humphryes, who could provide the swing votes to solve the crisis, said Tuesday they will back a negotiated settlement if JPMorgan Chase & Co. and other creditors make significant conces­sions."

"DALLAS, TX (KERA) - Dallas County Commissioners say they may have to raise taxes after three years of holding steady. KERA's BJ Austin says declining property values will mean millions in lost revenue.

Dallas County commissioners are facing a 56 million dollar budget shortfall, with few budget-cutting options left. Last year they cut ten percent across the board. The bad budget news is based on an expected 8 to 9 percent drop in property values countywide."

"NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. private employers shed 23,000 jobs in March, missing expectations for an increase in jobs although fewer than the adjusted 24,000 jobs lost in February, a report by a private employment service said on Wednesday.

The February fall was originally reported at 20,000.

The median of estimates from 35 economists surveyed by Reuters for the ADP Employer Services report, jointly developed with Macroeconomic Advisers LLC, was for a rise of 40,000 private-sector jobs last month."

"(Reuters) - Goodbye, Federal Reserve. Hello Fannie and Freddie.

Housing Market

With the Federal Reserve ending its 15-month $1.25 trillion mortgage bond buying binge on Wednesday, delinquent loan buyouts by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could serve as the saving grace for the $5 trillion agency mortgage-backed securities market.

The paydowns from these buyouts will put billions into the hands of mortgage investors for reinvestment and significantly reduce supply, mitigating the massive void the central bank will leave behind and helping keep yield spreads near record tights.

That is good news for the U.S. housing market since it should keep mortgage rates, which are linked to yields on Treasuries and yields on mortgage-backed securities, at historically low levels"

"The chart below shows three types of debt:

• Explicit state borrowing, in the form of general obligations bonds and other debt.

• The market value of unfunded state employee pension obligations; this is generally several times higher than the value states themselves acknowledge.

• States’ shares of the total federal debt: these are calculated by assuming that states bear the federal debt in the same proportion to which they pay overall federal income taxes, such that high income taxes will tend to carry proportionately more than low-income states."


"All these debts are expressed as a percentage of state gross domestic product, as a way of showing each state’s ability to service the debt.

When combined, the picture is grim. The average state has a combined debt of 104 percent of GDP, with the 10 worst states each having total debts exceeding 128 percent of GDP. That’s around where Greece was when the music stopped.

What separates states, and the United States in general, from Greece is that while we clearly have a solvency problem—our total liabilities far exceed our total assets—we don’t yet have a liquidity problem, where we can’t produce the dollars today needed to fund current obligations. But that state of affairs won’t go on forever. As the Times story notes, states like California are speeding up tax collections and delaying payments in order to keep current on their payments. And this won’t necessarily get easier over time.

While I’m an optimist by nature, it’s getting harder and harder to see a smooth transition out of these problems."

"March 31 (Bloomberg) -- European inflation accelerated more than economists forecast on higher oil prices, while the unemployment rate reached double-digits for the first time since 1998."

"Most metro areas will see prices fall below the lowest levels of the last 20 years, according to the latest forecast from University Financial Associates of Ann Arbor.

“It is often stated that prices decline faster than they rise because fear is a stronger emotion than greed. This certainly proved to be the case in Detroit where 10 years of real price gains were erased in just 4 years,” said UFA in its most recent UFATM House Price Forecast.

“Detroit metro was the canary in the coal mine this cycle, with falling house prices arriving earlier than in other metros,” said Dennis Capozza, who is the Dykema Professor of Business Administration in the Ross School of Business at the University of Michigan, and a founding principal of UFA. “Other metros that have already or will soon converge to pre-bubble real prices include Las Vegas, Phoenix, the inland California metros and many south Florida metros.”

UFA’s prediction would take the national median price of a home in most markets below $101,000, the national median in 1990, according to the Census Bureau."

  • Other headlines and news stories:

Japan Bankruptcies Set for Eight-Year High After JAL Collapse

China's Stocks Fall, Worst Quarter Since Entering Bear Market

State, local pension plans dropped $179 billion even before markets crashed

Croatia's public debt reaches record-breaking level

Municipal debt set to double in five years (Finland)

German Banks May Face Losses on Southern Europe

rocketgirl1's picture
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Re: Daily Digest - March 31

Thanks for the extended DD Sax.  Comparing states debt and GDP with the current situation in Greece was staggering.  This is definately a "big picture" site and your DD contributions are priceless.  Thanks again.

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Re: Daily Digest - March 31


What a vast and extensive Daily Digest. Excellent. !!  In just looking at all the post headlines it becomes very clear that the states and municipalities are in for big and permanent cuts. The city and state leaders and politicians need to understand Chris Martensons statement that the next twenty years will be unlike the previous twenty years. I have no idea how these cities and states can keep going and paying their employees. Sooner or later they will hit a brick wall.

Anyway, thanks for all the info SaxPlayer, I read your stuff every day. Keep it up. Back to reading more about my home state Illinois. Illinois privatizing the lottery ???  Can you say "payola" ?


finaltable's picture
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Re: Daily Digest - March 31

The additional headlines tell an important story that is not being discussed; namely, that state and local deficits are going to be "Round 2" of this continuing economic disaster.  Because local governments spend based on tax projections little was done in the face of falling revenues to reduce outflows.  Now that these states are seeing the coming wreck furloughs, forced unpaids vacations and layoffs are going to be the next major source of under-or unemployed.  Unlike companies, who can for the most part simply cut back hours or let people go, many of these workers labor under union rules so the fights over who's job gets cut are certain to be brutal.

dickB's picture
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The Silver Whistleblower

I've just listened to the King World News interview with Andrew McGuire. I'd recommend it to you all. We are living in a very shaky world!

idoctor's picture
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Re: Daily Digest - March 31

SingleSpeak's picture
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Re: Daily Digest - March 31

From Bucolic Bliss To 'Gated Ghetto' (Hemet, CA)

Wow, it seems so surreal. These beautiful homes that literally would have been considered mansions or quasi-mansions at least in the world I grew up in back in the 60's. Through a complex series of ponzi schemes anyone with any job was told they could afford "the good life" - just sign on the dotted line. Of course, most people would go for it and did go for it because it's so easy to take the bait. Prosperity was all around, what could go wrong?

Well, basically everything that could go wrong did go wrong and it still isn't over. There is still a lot of pain before we hit the bottom of this crash. And the article gives you a glimpse of where we are heading. The people that manage to avoid the brunt of the collapse through either careful planning or extreme downsizing or sacrifice will be subsidizing the all the rest that will be moved into the McMansions under some government program.

Perhaps we'd fare better if we can just remember..... If it seems too good to be true, usually it's not.Surprised


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Posts: 34
Re: Massive silver trading fraud.

Worried about the future of the once-mighty  Dollar? Thinking of 'buying' gold or silver ? - watch out, you will end up with useless bits of paper unless you take physical delivery.

Andrew Maguire - silver price fraud. Kingworld News audio interview (repost - zeroenergy21)

JP MorganChase and HSBC (both in London) are biggest manipulators of silver market

"...for every single ounce of silver in a vault there are 99 'paper' ounces."   100 to 1 leverage on bullion !?!

Andrew Maguire - emails re silver price fraud.  Kingworld News.

Cyber attack on KingWorld News following posting of above interview with Maguire. Site still running very slowly - be patient.    GATA - Kingworld News cyber attacks

Bill Murphy of GATA gives evidence from Maguire at CFTC meeting. (YouTube)

Adrian Douglas (LBMA) gives evidence at same meeting.     (1.55)

LBMA trades 20 million ounces gold per day ($22 billion /day) .. i.e 5.4 Trillion dollars per year. ...'Ponzification' of Buillion markets. The bullion markets are a fraud ...

Just as well I only use my silver spoons for stiring my tea.


BMA Bullion Market Ponzi Scheme

GrouchoMarxist's picture
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Posts: 34
Re: Silver fraud and financial collapse

Well the Andrew Maguire story on silver fraud on London Bullion Market seems to be spreading - All audo links still point to King World News - I hope someone copies it and re-posts it on the web, as KWN has already been attcked to hamper the spread of this story.

Don't know what to make of this .... (video). Massive inflation coming your way soon . Hold on to portable, physical assets.

More disjointed news and comment on breaking story about silver fraud & Andrew Maguire  from World News (several short videos).

I wonder if this will ever get a mention in the mainstream TV and newspapers mafia outlets - doubt it, at least not till after the shtf.

Won't be long before the tentacles strangle the web completly. Sites like this must be very frightening for some people.

G. Marxist.

idoctor's picture
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Re: Daily Digest - March 31

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