Daily Digest

Daily Digest - March 28

Sunday, March 28, 2010, 10:53 AM
  • Housing Market Recovery: On the Same Schedule as Godot
  • Personal Income Drops Across the Country
  • Credit Crisis, Outrage, Far From Over
  • Mauldin: What Does Greece Mean To You?
  • Four Lenders Shuttered as U.S. Bank Failures Reach 41 This Year
  • Year-End Growth Spurt Not Likely To Be Repeated
  • Big Deal: How Britain's FSA Swooped On Top Leaders
  • The Perfect Crime
  • Dubai Debt Plan May Be 'Negative' For Banks - JPMorgan
  • Whistleblower to CFTC in JPM Silver Manipulation Struck by Hit and Run Car in London
  • Regulated or Not, Nano-Foods Coming to a Store Near You

Economy

Housing Market Recovery: On the Same Schedule as Godot (mhoop)

Housing prices are probably going to sink. Why? Because they’re a consumer item, not an investment. For 100 years, a house was a place to live in…and housing prices more or less kept pace with inflation. Then, beginning in the mid-’90s people came to see a house as “the best investment you can make.” They began buying houses as a way to make money…and as a way to save for retirement. It made sense. What would you rather have, a mutual fund growing at 10% per year…or a house that goes up by 10% per year? The house! Because you can live in it…and show it off. So you leverage up…you buy twice the house you can afford. You live better. And you make more money.

Personal Income Drops Across the Country (mhoop)

Nevada's 4.8% plunge was the steepest, as construction and tourism industries took a beating. Also hit hard: Wyoming, where incomes fell 3.9%.

Credit Crisis, Outrage, Far From Over (hucklejohn)

The big bad secret is that if banks and other financial companies reported their true financial positions they’d be out of business – insolvent. The Fed and the SEC are certainly well aware of these problems, but the game goes on. The fraud is intentional and conscious. They know there are two sets of books, that MBS on their books are virtually worthless, they just bought $1.1 trillion worth of the toxic waste and they are well aware that the shadow inventory on their books is at best worth $0.30 on the dollar.

Mauldin: What Does Greece Mean To You? (JRB)

How does an event like a problem in Greece (or elsewhere) affect you, gentle reader? And I mean, affect you down where the rubber hits your road. Not some formula or theory about the velocity of money or the effect of taxes on GDP. That is the question I was posed this week. "I want to understand why you think this is so important," said a friend of Tiffani. So that is what I will attempt to answer in this week's missive, as I write a letter to my kids trying to explain the nearly inexplicable.

Four Lenders Shuttered as U.S. Bank Failures Reach 41 This Year (Nickbert)

Four banks in Georgia, Florida and Arizona were shut down by regulators, bringing the total for the year to 41 as smaller lenders are pressured by bad loans tied to commercial real estate.

Year-End Growth Spurt Not Likely To Be Repeated (Nickbert)

Most of last quarter's growth came from a large bump up in manufacturing — but not because consumer demand was especially strong.

Instead, factories were churning out goods for businesses that had let their stockpiles dwindle to save cash. If consumer spending remains lackluster as expected, that burst of manufacturing — and its contribution to economic activity — will fade.

Big Deal: How Britain's FSA Swooped On Top Leaders (pinecarr)

Eight strangers stepped out of the lift on the fifth floor of Winchester House, Deutsche Bank's headquarters in the heart of London. Martyn Dodgson, recently promoted to the elite ranks of managing directors at Deutsche, had been arrested that morning by officers from the Serious Organised Crime Agency. He was one of seven detained last week in a series of 16 dawn raids on homes and offices across London and the southeast, orchestrated by the City regulator, the Financial Services Authority.

The Perfect Crime (pinecarr)

There is a conflict of interest in the US and highly indebted European governments being in charge of reforming the credit rating agencies in the first place, given their own borrowing needs, which would be adversely affected by potential rating downgrades should the demands for "truth" in credit ratings become too onerous or even inflexible.

Dubai Debt Plan May Be 'Negative' For Banks - JPMorgan (pinecarr)

Dubai World’s debt restructuring plan may be “negative” for its bank creditors as they will have to rely on asset sales and dividends for principal repayment, JPMorgan Chase said.

Whistleblower to CFTC in JPM Silver Manipulation Struck by Hit and Run Car in London (pinecarr)

I am glad that although Mr. Maguire and his wife are shaken they will apparently be all right. The related story on his allegations regarding manipulation in the silver market is here.

I hesitate to say anything more at this point, except curiouser and curiouser.

Regulated or Not, Nano-Foods Coming to a Store Near You (mhoop)

At last year's Institute of Food Technologists international conference, nanotechnology was the topic that generated the most buzz among the 14,000 food-scientists, chefs and manufacturers crammed into an Anaheim, Calif., hall. Though it's a word that has probably never been printed on any menu, and probably never will, there was so much interest in the potential uses of nanotechnology for food that a separate daylong session focused just on that subject was packed to overflowing.

Please send article submissions to: [email protected]

32 Comments

gregroberts's picture
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Re: Daily Digest - March 28

SR-71 Model, very much off topic but cool,

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Re: Daily Digest - March 28

The coolest plane!

I actually got to watch one plane fly very low speed, low altitude - just over our heads while it made its final turns for show before landing the last time at WPAFB in Ohio.  Yep - its last minutes in the air !

It is now a museum piece at the Air Force Museum.  I saw it up close in the hanger bay as they were removing the plane's secret gear and preping it for the museum.  It took a while... and even on the tarmac, it is an impressive sight up close !

Was really an impressive sight !  It flew so low and so slow over our heads that you could easily pick up details.  A wonderful plane.  Still a great achievement ! 

Sonic booms were no longer allowed in the 90's and so they did not do any super sonic flyovers that last day.  Bummer.  Not like in the 70's - the base planes did not mind rattling our home while breaking the sound barrier.  It was really cool to watch and hear for a young boy in the 70's.

Thanks for sharing the video.  It brought back great memories.  They did a great job flying the model.

Bruce

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Re: Daily Digest - March 28

Amazing!  Bruce, I was there for the last flight as well!  I remember that like it was yesterday!   I was with several other Air Force junior officers there on a trip up to Wright-Pat from Patrick AFB in Florida.   It was a looong  time ago!

John

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mesaboogieman
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Re: Daily Digest - March 28
gregroberts wrote:

SR-71 Model, very much off topic but cool,

Wow, only in America!      It may be off topic but hey, it's a Sunday!

Good to see the FSA have grown a pair, it's a start at least.

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Re: Daily Digest - March 28

dont miss the first part of the nano food series: - Amid Nanotech's Dazzling Promise, Health Risks Grow

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spy plane over-flight

 

Amazing!  Bruce, I was there for the last flight as well!  I remember that like it was yesterday!   I was with several other Air Force junior officers there on a trip up to Wright-Pat from Patrick AFB in Florida.   It was a looong  time ago!

John

Hey John - It is indeed a small world !  What a lucky trip for you.  I bet you were the envy of many for a while.

Was it really so long ago....jeesh, I am getting old !

Bruce

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Re: Daily Digest - March 28

Looks like real estate is still going well up here in Canada....

Potential townhouse owners end 2-week lineup

Web Staff, cp24.com

It looked like a tent city overnight outside a brand new townhouse development in Mississauga as hundreds of people lined up to get a look at 130 townhouses that went on sale at 8 a.m.

The line-up to buy the Erin Mills units started nearly two weeks ago after people began camping out when they heard about Saturday's release date.

Daniels Corporation, which is selling the units, says it's not surprised at the response because the units are reasonable priced and aimed at people trying to get into the market for the first time.

Daniels has had line-ups for similar developments before. Company officials say the fact that they're still drawing a crowd in the current economy shows the local housing market is still strong.

http://www.cp24.com/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20100327/100327_townhouse_l...

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Re: Daily Digest - March 28
TFGC wrote:

Looks like real estate is still going well up here in Canada....

Potential townhouse owners end 2-week lineup

Web Staff, cp24.com

It looked like a tent city overnight outside a brand new townhouse development in Mississauga as hundreds of people lined up to get a look at 130 townhouses that went on sale at 8 a.m.

The line-up to buy the Erin Mills units started nearly two weeks ago after people began camping out when they heard about Saturday's release date.

Daniels Corporation, which is selling the units, says it's not surprised at the response because the units are reasonable priced and aimed at people trying to get into the market for the first time.

Daniels has had line-ups for similar developments before. Company officials say the fact that they're still drawing a crowd in the current economy shows the local housing market is still strong.

http://www.cp24.com/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20100327/100327_townhouse_l...

Reminds me of when people were camping out in tents out in California during the real estate bubble. How did that work out? Money mouth

Now they are sleeping in tents because they are homeless. Yell

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saxplayer00o1
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Re: Daily Digest - March 28

$ 1 2 , 6 9 9 , 9 2 0 , 8 8 2 , 1 5 3 . 3 5

http://brillig.com/debt_clock/

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Damnthematrix
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Re: Daily Digest - March 28
joemanc wrote:

Reminds me of when people were camping out in tents out in California during the real estate bubble. How did that work out? Money mouth

Now they are sleeping in tents because they are homeless. Yell

 

Hmmm.....  you mean. like this:

Desperate Sydneysiders camp for new land

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/03/26/2857346.htm

People have been camping out since Monday to be the first to buy newly released land in Sydney's biggest housing development.

Plots of land in the 1,100-hectare Oran Park development in the city's south-west go on sale from tomorrow, but families and couples have been camping out there for days.

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Re: Daily Digest - March 28

not sure if this was posted yet. possibly some progress in the UK

Government ‘Peak Oil Summit’ Starts the Process of Government Acknowledging Peak Oil?

On Monday Peter Lipman and I represented Transition Network at an event which could potentially be the day people look back to as the day when UK government finally starting to ‘get’ peak oil.  Fascinating and frustrating in equal measure, the event, “Policy Response to potential future oil supply constraints”, was billed as “a half-day workshop hosted by the Energy Institute in partnership with the Department of Energy and Climate Change ....[snip]

and from the Guardian http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/mar/21/peak-oil-summit

 

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Re: Daily Digest - March 28

SR-71 Model, very much off topic but cool,

[/quote

And people still question what hit the pentagon?Embarassed

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LogansRun
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Re: Daily Digest - March 28

SR-71 Model, very much off topic but cool,

[/quote

And people still question what hit the pentagon?Embarassed

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Re: Daily Digest - March 28

Electric cars 'simply transfer pollution to power station'
By CATHERINE HARRIS - BusinessDay.co.nz

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/3519686/Electric-cars-simply-transfer-po...

An Auckland publisher has produced a report that criticises the electric car as being no more environmentally friendly than petrol cars.

The 168-page report, entitled The Emperor's New Car, has been written by Clive Matthew-Wilson, the editor of the Dog and Lemon Guide for car buyers. He said he spent three years researching the report with the aid of staffers and input from several international experts.

His conclusion was that the Tesla electric sports car was less efficient and usually more indirectly polluting than a comparable petrol-powered sports car.

"Most of Tesla's publicity focuses on the efficiency of its electric motor. What they don't tell you is that its batteries are heavy, inefficient and that Teslas are frequently powered by electricity from highly polluting power stations."

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Vanityfox451
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Re: Daily Digest - March 28
Ruhh wrote:

not sure if this was posted yet. possibly some progress in the UK

Government ‘Peak Oil Summit’ Starts the Process of Government Acknowledging Peak Oil?

On Monday Peter Lipman and I represented Transition Network at an event which could potentially be the day people look back to as the day when UK government finally starting to ‘get’ peak oil.  Fascinating and frustrating in equal measure, the event, “Policy Response to potential future oil supply constraints”, was billed as “a half-day workshop hosted by the Energy Institute in partnership with the Department of Energy and Climate Change ....[snip]

and from the Guardian http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/...

Ruhh,

I've had my fingers crossed for a number of weeks in the hope that Richard Branson and many others, including the consistent voice of Jeremy Leggett, were finally going to wake up the dreamers in government.

Personally seeing something of the surprise on former Liberal Democrat leader Paddy Ashdowns face just over a week ago, when he inadvertently overheard my explanation of Peak Oil and the value of Chris Martensons Crash Course to one in a number of my 'Captive Audience' on one of my regular train journey's was welcome enough. However, afterward, it worried me greatly that someone so up on public issues was so naive to the subject.

The thought that I had in my mind as I was taking my 20 minute walk from the train station afterward was, that over the coming weeks, that overheard conversation is going to be repeated again in his professional life, and he'll then spend as much time as I have, devoting himself to the quite inevitable energy decline; with all of its violently messy outcomes, and run with it ...

We can but live in hope!

Thank you for posting this ...

~ VF ~

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Re: Daily Digest - March 28

Okay :)

But what are we pointing at here? Are we still in a real estate bubble?

These people seem to have the money/credit to buy the house. With the tightening of the credit, and the drop in house values, wouldn't this be seen as a good sign at this point?

The main thing that could go wrong here is that the jobs they have, which they rely on to make the payments, could disapear and hence they could no longer afford the mortgages.They do state the units are 'reasonably prices'.

Interest rates could start to go up too...

What economic fundamental do you believe would give out on these 130 new home owners?

Thanks!

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Re: Daily Digest - March 28

I remember seeing these planes take off at Kadena Air Base in Okiniwa.

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Re: Daily Digest - March 28
Vanityfox451 wrote:

However, afterward, it worried me greatly that someone so up on public issues was so naive to the subject.

This observation is an interesting one.  Years ago, I read a book on the Mayaguez Incident.  It described how during Oval Office deliberations involving Gerald Ford, Henry Kissinger, and other high level officials, it was a Whitehouse photographer (who was supposed to be a fly on the wall but couldn't keep silent any longer hearing the nonsense that was going on) that clued them in to a significant strategic misconception they all had.  I forget the exact details but I remember finding it shocking that our leadership was that misinformed on such a critical issue.  As the years have passed, I've discovered that it's not uncommon to find an abundance of ignorance at all levels of our government.  I witnessed that same phenomenon most recently at a townhall meeting where Congressman Bart Stupak was discussing a number of issues that I was very familiar with and I realized that he was sorely misinformed on several of them.  Garbage in, garbage out. 

ao's picture
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Re: Daily Digest - March 28
TFGC wrote:

Looks like real estate is still going well up here in Canada....

Potential townhouse owners end 2-week lineup

Web Staff, cp24.com

It looked like a tent city overnight outside a brand new townhouse development in Mississauga as hundreds of people lined up to get a look at 130 townhouses that went on sale at 8 a.m.

The line-up to buy the Erin Mills units started nearly two weeks ago after people began camping out when they heard about Saturday's release date.

Daniels Corporation, which is selling the units, says it's not surprised at the response because the units are reasonable priced and aimed at people trying to get into the market for the first time.

Daniels has had line-ups for similar developments before. Company officials say the fact that they're still drawing a crowd in the current economy shows the local housing market is still strong.

http://www.cp24.com/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20100327/100327_townhouse_l...

I always find scenarios like this fascinating.  Don't these people understand that when you have to line up to buy something like this, it's always the worst time and price to buy something like this?  PT Barnum was right.

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Re: Daily Digest - March 28

Trying to understand, but no one is helping explaining.Frown

 

I always find scenarios like this fascinating.  Don't these people understand that when you have to line up to buy something like this, it's always the worst time and price to buy something like this?  PT Barnum was right.

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Re: Daily Digest - March 28

Trying to understand, but no one is helping explaining.Frown

 

Yes....we are in a housing bubble. Have been for some time.

Most of those people lining up are paid by speculators. They will flip and flip and flip until the music stops and someone is left holding the mortgage.

Speculators only watch MSM and HGTV. THey have no idea what is about to go down and don't want to hear it. Our bubble bursts this summer....

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Re: Daily Digest - March 28

I see, you are saying that we are still in a housing bubble, even after the current drop in house values. Probably maintained by the housing inventory kept off the books. And the 2008-2009 drop not having been enough.

Thanks!

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Re: Daily Digest - March 28
mesaboogieman wrote:
gregroberts wrote:

SR-71 Model, very much off topic but cool,

Wow, only in America!      It may be off topic but hey, it's a Sunday!

Uuhhh... Not only in America. The people in the video were all speaking German.

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Re: Daily Digest - March 28

TFGC - they were discussing the housing market in Canada and Australia as still being in a bubble. The US housing bubble (as well as those in the UK and Eastern Europe) has popped, but in the US the banks have generally tried to avoid taking losses on their real estate holdings and have been unloading their bad investments onto the government  (through various bank welfare programs) as fast as they can and hiding the rest by using 'mark to fantasy' and 'put it in the back closet and no one will notice' type accounting tricks. Expect the market here to stumble along with various government guarantees as long as it can. Any kind of shock to the system could take it another few ledges down the cliff...

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Re: Daily Digest - March 28

For the serious plane enthusiast check out these babies:

http://www.jetcatusa.com/compare-rc-turbines.html

The big one weighs 5lbs, develops 52lbs of thrust at full throttle (24oz of fuel/min) and will set you back $5,600 USD. Maxed out that's a gallon of fuel every 5min - heck of a power plant for a model...

Here is a video of someone flying a model powered by their low/mid-range P80 jet turbine - 200mph

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=873601240824366435#

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Re: Daily Digest - March 28

Rates to rise, property speculation a 'mistake'

By business editor Peter Ryan

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/03/29/2858966.htm?section=justin

The governor of the Reserve Bank has warned against borrowing too much to buy property, saying interest rates are likely to keep rising this year.

In his first television interview as RBA governor, Glenn Stevens told Australians that investing in bricks and mortar was no longer an easy road to prosperity.

Mr Stevens had a clear message for anyone in middle Australia with a mortgage, especially those who borrowed to the hilt when rates were at their emergency lows.

"I think it would be not doing anybody any favours to have a prolonged period of very low rates and then hammer them unexpectedly," he said.

"The banks that are lending them the money should be, and I'm sure are, testing the potential borrower: can you handle some rise in interest rates?"

Mr Stevens also signalled that a potential bubble in residential property prices might force rates higher, warning that the traditional investment of bricks and mortar might now be a dangerous course.

"I think it is a mistake to assume that a risk-less, guaranteed way to prosperity is just to be leveraged up into property," he said.

"It isn't going to be that easy and I think if we think about property prices as parents, and you're a parent, as am I. I've got kids that within not too many more years are going to want somewhere of their own to live and you wonder, how is that going to be afforded?"

Mr Stevens's highly targeted comments are a first for a Reserve Bank governor, according to Macquarie Group's interest rate strategist Rory Robertson.

"I certainly can't remember a Reserve Bank governor in Australia going on breakfast TV, essentially advertising higher interest rates," he said.

Mr Robertson says the switch to a commercial television audience is the latest in wider communication by the Reserve Bank, coming after the release of board minutes and statements on rate decisions even when they are left on hold.

"Governor Stevens has really ramped up the communications process since he became governor a couple of years ago. I think that he's grown into his job and he now, when you see him in public forums both giving speeches and in the question-and-answer sessions, I think he has great presence and is very authoritative in his answers," he said.

"So I think he would be confident that he can deal with anything thrown at him in any forum these days. I think that's one of the reasons he's comfortable enough going on breakfast TV."

Mr Robertson says this may be part of a greater effort to improve the Reserve Bank's communication now that interest rate movements are so closely watched.

"I think it is interesting that the Reserve Bank in public speeches over the past week by the governor, by an assistant governor and also in its financial stability review, all those pieces of information were consistent with the Reserve Bank essentially marketing the need for higher rates," he said.

"So I'll be surprised if we don't see the Reserve Bank go another step next month."

An RBA spokesman says today's interview was granted as part of the central bank's 50th anniversary events and that future interviews, while rare, will be considered on a case-by-case basis.

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West Oz 9999
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Re: Daily Digest - March 28

What a bloody strange financial world we live in...

Just when you think central bankers are pathalogical liars one of them actually tells the truth and even gives examples and specific details..  Its as if Steve Keen or Peter Schiff (or anyone that understands asset bubbles) got in his ear and explained the role of interest rates..

Or its some type of pre-emptive "I warned you and you didnt listen" justification before the bubble bursts.. Maybe he knows whats coming and suddenly got a conscience.. Which is odd cause Bernanke had 'no idea' what was happening pre bubble bursting.. (riight)

Personally, given the fractional reserve system we have to put up with, higher interest rates are sensible.. As many commentators point out.. Its an incentive for savers instead of a situation where we are all forced to speculate on various asset groups to gain some sort of return on our wealth..

Very interesting

Regards

West

 

ao's picture
ao
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Re: Daily Digest - March 28
TFGC wrote:

Trying to understand, but no one is helping explaining.Frown

Sorry TFGC,

Went to bed early last night.

Simply,

long lines = high demand = high price = opposite of buy low, sell high = common but wrong move of herd of sheeple immediately prior to bubble bursting in these markets = recurrent pattern we've seen again and again = financial loss for them

Vanityfox451's picture
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Re: Daily Digest - March 28
West Oz wrote:

 Personally, given the fractional reserve system we have to put up with, higher interest rates are sensible.. As many commentators point out.. Its an incentive for savers instead of a situation where we are all forced to speculate on various asset groups to gain some sort of return on our wealth..

+10!!!

Definately a major part of the puzzle ...

~ VF ~

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macro2682
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Re: Daily Digest - March 28

Jeez.  I was suprized when the whistle blower story wasn't on the news.  But THEN he's in a hit and run car accident and STILL nothing?

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Dee NH
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Re: Daily Digest - March 28

I find the JPM silver market whistleblower Andrew Maguire story very compelling and I've decided after hearing the latest - the hit and run car "accident" that it will be worth following.  Thanks to this daily digest for the original link on the story and then the follow-up on the "accident". 

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saxplayer00o1
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Re: Daily Digest - March 28

My Boss asked me to Stop Vloging (Youtube video...banks, silver market)

I also posted this as the bottom link under comment #1 today (Monday)

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