Daily Digest

Daily Digest - July 30

Friday, July 30, 2010, 10:52 AM
  • Moody's Puts Iceland's Baa3 Rating On Outlook Negative, Next Stop - Junk, As Island Nation Continues Giving Banks the Finger
  • The Government Debt Is Becoming A Pure Ponzi Scheme
  • China Has `Indisputable' Sovereignty in South China Sea, Defense Aide Says
  • Fed Member's Deflation Warning Hints At Policy Shift
  • Japanese Style Deflation
  • China opposes new EU sanctions on Iran
  • U.S. Economy Grew 2.4% in Second Quarter, Below Forecast
  • U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Fell to 67.8
  • The Wages Of Failure
  • Business Activity in U.S. Expanded Faster in July
  • Recession in U.S. Was Even Worse Than Estimated, Revisions Show
  • Video: Oswego Installs Wind Turbine To Go Laker Green
  • From Fires to Fish, Heat Wave Batters Russia
  • Gulf of Mexico Has Long Been a Dump Site for Industry
  • Photoshop of Horrors: Wired Readers Show BP How It’s Done

Economy

Moody's Puts Iceland's Baa3 Rating On Outlook Negative, Next Stop - Junk, As Island Nation Continues Giving Banks the Finger (pinecarr)

Just because the unpronounceable volcano did not do quite enough damage, and both Hekla and Katla are taking their sweet time, the Iceland Supreme Court recently ruled on the illegality of foreign FX-linked loans, and "Icesave" is still DOA, here is Moody's with a stern warning for the country to change its anti-Keynesian ways promptly or else.

The Government Debt Is Becoming A Pure Ponzi Scheme (pinecarr)

The problem is getting runaway. It's becoming a pure Ponzi scheme. It's very nonlinear: You need more and more debt just to stay where you are. And what broke Madoff is going to break governments. They need to find new suckers all the time. And unfortunately the world has run out of suckers.

China Has `Indisputable' Sovereignty in South China Sea, Defense Aide Says (SolidSwede)

The Chinese government considers the entire South China Sea as its own, dismissing claims from Southeast Asian countries to islands such as the Spratlys, and is building an ocean-going fleet to project power beyond its borders. China told Exxon Mobil Corp. and BP Plc to halt exploration in areas that Vietnam considers part of its territory, according to U.S. government agencies.

Fed Member's Deflation Warning Hints At Policy Shift (Robert C.)

On Thursday, James Bullard, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, warned that the Fed’s current policies were putting the American economy at risk of becoming “enmeshed in a Japanese-style deflationary outcome within the next several years.”

Japanese Style Deflation (bandv)

CNBC’s Larry Kudlow had a segment last night about if Japanese style deflation is coming to America. His guest, David P. Goldman of First Things magazine, said that the U.S. today “very closely resembles Japan of the 1990s”. He said that the only thing that can prevent Japanese style deflation from occurring in the U.S. is “American entrepreneurship”.

China opposes new EU sanctions on Iran (cmartenson)

Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu said that China still hoped to solve the thorny issues surrounding Iran's nuclear ambitions through negotiations.

"China does not approve of the European Union's unilateral sanctions on Iran," Jiang said in a statement posted on the ministry's website.

U.S. Economy Grew 2.4% in Second Quarter, Below Forecast (cmartenson)

The economy is muddling through,” Ethan Harris, head of North America economics at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch Global Research in New York, said in an interview after the report. “We’re probably not going to see a really strong number for a while. We need to see some pickup in job growth.”

U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Fell to 67.8 (cmartenson)

“Consumers have a lot to be concerned about,” Eric Green, chief market economist at TD Securities Inc. in New York, said before the report. “Private job growth is showing signs of slowing, not accelerating,” he said, and stock prices have declined since peaking in April.

The Wages Of Failure (jdargis)

When Tony Hayward said “I’d like my life back” on May 30th, losing his job as boss of BP was probably not what he had in mind. But on July 27th he accepted the inevitable. On his watch, zillions of gallons of oil spilled into the Gulf of Mexico. When the microphones were on, gaffes gushed from his lips. He was a walking public-relations disaster and had to go.

Business Activity in U.S. Expanded Faster in July (cmartenson)

“We expect manufacturing to keep growing,” Russell Price, a senior economist at Ameriprise Financial Inc. in Detroit, said before the report. “Demand is still there, and exports are doing fairly well. As employment recovers, it will fuel further gains in manufacturing and in the economy.”

Recession in U.S. Was Even Worse Than Estimated, Revisions Show (cmartenson)

“We do tend to get bigger revisions at turning points in the economy,” Steven Landefeld, director of the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis, said in a press conference this week. On the more positive side, “in the past, we’ve tended to undershoot the recovery” as well, he said.

Energy

Video: Oswego Installs Wind Turbine To Go Laker Green (pinecarr)

Against a blue sky on the morning of July 29, crews installed the latest step in SUNY Oswego’s green effort: a wind turbine that will provide an estimated 40,000 kilowatt hours of electricity a year from atop Lee Hall. The project is a partnership between the college and Impact Technologies Group of Syracuse to test the design, work on sustainable power generation and provide firsthand education on alternative energy.

Environment

From Fires to Fish, Heat Wave Batters Russia (joemanc)

Much of Russia has been reeling. Forest fires have erupted. Drought has ruined millions of acres of wheat. More than 2,000 people have died from drowning in rivers, reservoirs and elsewhere in July and June, often after seeking relief from the heat while intoxicated. In Moscow alone, the number of such deaths has tripled in comparison with last year, officials said.

Gulf of Mexico Has Long Been a Dump Site for Industry (jdargis)

Now that the oil on the surface appears to be dissipating, the notion of a recovery from the spill, repeated by politicians, strikes some here as short-sighted. The gulf had been suffering for decades before the explosion of the Deepwater Horizon rig on April 20.

Photoshop of Horrors: Wired Readers Show BP How It’s Done (Humor, Brian C.)

BP Encounters an Act of God…

…zilla

Article suggestions for the Daily Digest can be sent to [email protected]. All suggestions are filtered by the Daily Digest team and preference is given to those that are in alignment with the message of the Crash Course and the "3 Es."

14 Comments

saxplayer00o1's picture
saxplayer00o1
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Posts: 4163
Re: Daily Digest - July 30

""No amount of further monetary policy accommodation can offset the retarding effect of heightened uncertainty over the fiscal and regulatory direction of the country," Fisher said. "

.....................1A) Uncertainty strangling growth, Dallas Fed official says

"As for the huge federal deficit, forget any possibility of the Fed printing money to try to balance the books, Fisher said.

"We know what happens when central banks give in to those requests - it leads us down the slippery slope of debasing our currency and puts us on the path of hyperinflation and economic destruction," Fisher said. "Neither I nor my colleagues are willing to risk that legacy." The comment drew rousing applause."

"WASHINGTON, July 30 (Xinhua) -- The U.S. economic recovery has been slow and the outlook remains uncertain with rising downside risks, which warrants further policy stimulus to keep recovery on track, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said Friday."

...................2A) IMF Says US Financial System Might Need Further $76 Billion in Capital

"Deflationary pressure on the U.S. economy has increased, so the nation's central bank is "keeping an eye" on it, the Nikkei reported on Friday, quoting Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard."

....................3A) Fed Should Resume Treasury Purchases if Deflation Risk Grows, Bullard Says

"“The U.S. is closer to a Japanese-style outcome today than at any time in recent history,” Bullard said, warning in a research paper released yesterday about the possibility of deflation. “A better policy response to a negative shock is to expand the quantitative easing program through the purchase of Treasury securities.”

Bullard’s stance increases the odds the Fed will make such a move and reject other options should the economy weaken further, former Fed Governor Lyle Gramley said. Other alternatives to aid growth include using communication to plot the path of interest rates or cutting payments to banks on reserve deposits, Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said last week."

"July 30 (Bloomberg) -- Spain will probably lose its Aaa credit rating after the country was put under review for possible downgrade in June, and the U.S. needs a “clear plan” to tackle its deficit, Moody’s Investors Service said.

“Spain is very highly rated and I can’t say where that rating will end up, but it’s likely to go down a bit,” Steven A. Hess, senior credit officer at Moody’s, said in an interview in Sydney yesterday. In the U.S., slower growth may hinder government efforts to address the budget shortfall, he said.

The Spanish government is trying to cut the third-largest budget deficit in the euro region while returning to growth after an almost two-year recession. Spain’s classification may be lowered as much as two grades, Moody’s analysts said June 30, citing “deteriorating” economic prospects and the challenges the government faces to achieve its fiscal targets."

"NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The states are broke, and like many consumers, they're borrowing big time to get out of their fiscal binds.

The amount of debt that states are carrying spiked 10.3% last year to $460 billion, according to Moody's Investors Service. The debt is paid for through taxes and fees, making residents ultimately responsible.

The median personal share of this burden jumped to $936, from $865 in 2008. (To see how much the tab is in your state, click here.)

And it's likely that states will turn to the bond markets even more this year as federal stimulus money dwindles, experts said. After all, officials face an additional $12 billion shortfall for the current fiscal year and a $72 billion gap for fiscal 2012, which starts next July 1."

  • Other news and headlines:

China overtakes Japan as No.2 economy: FX chief

60000 Scottish public sector jobs could be axed

Greek stand-off intensifies as police fire tear gas at striking truck drivers

Greece's national strike threatens chaos for British tourists

Iceland Debt Outlook Cut to Negative at Moody's on Bank Ruling (See also above in the DD by Pinecarr)

Iceland Says It's `Far From Defaulting' on Payments as Rating Nears Junk

California Democrats Propose Raising Income Taxes to Plug $19 Billion Gap

Grim picture: Nearly a quarter of adults in Merced County don't have health insurance

NY governor planning at least 1000 state layoffs

Over 50 San Jose Firefighters Set To Be Laid Off

Salinas police feel cutbacks during spike in violence (California)

School budget battle continues in Broward County (Florida...$130 million deficit)

Poland Investors Say Budget Plan May Be 'Bad News'

More Spending Is Needed on Weapons Systems, Panel Says

Home Prices Heading for a Second Dip and Fiserv Predicts Home Prices to Drop Another 4.9% in Year Ahead

Spain's job losses continue to grow (Video)

Employment Costs in U.S. Increased 0.5% in Second Quarter

Bogdan's picture
Bogdan
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Peak Everything

Hi,

There is something I don't understand about Peak Everything... It makes sense to talk about Peak Oil, because oil is not a renewable resource, but pretty much everything else is renewable, that is, recyclable: all metals and natural elements can be recycled and reused over and over again. Am I wrong?

Thanks,

Bogdan.

LogansRun's picture
LogansRun
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Re: Daily Digest - July 30

It takes energy to recycle.

Ken C's picture
Ken C
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Re: Daily Digest - July 30
LogansRun wrote:

It takes energy to recycle.

Speaking of recycling-

I always collect the bottles and cans that we use to recycle at the local recycle facility here in Greater LA area. Yesterday when I made my usual monthly trip to the facility I saw a sign posted that indicated that the facility would be closing by end of July. The reason given was the it was no longer economically viable. The facility is run by a private organization and gets payed by the state for the glass and aluminum. When an item is sold a re-cycle fee is collected by Calif. that is supposed to be returned when the can/bottle is recycled. It turns out the the state is not paying ( at least fast enough).

For me I will continue to recycle as much as I can but for many people I am sure the incentive to recycle will be lost if there is no monetary gain.

The spend thrift politicians in Calif. always promise more than they can deliver. It seems that when monies are collected by the gov. ( at any level) it somehow becomes their property to spend as they like regardless of the original intent of the tax/fee collection.

Ken

yoshhash's picture
yoshhash
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Re: Daily Digest - July 30

... it also takes cooperation and will to participate in the recycling process- the numbers are still embarassingly low.  And we need to be making smarter decisions so that we allocate precious metals into doing something more useful than selling snacks inside...

TNdancer's picture
TNdancer
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Re: Peak Everything
Bogdan wrote:

Hi,

There is something I don't understand about Peak Everything... It makes sense to talk about Peak Oil, because oil is not a renewable resource, but pretty much everything else is renewable, that is, recyclable: all metals and natural elements can be recycled and reused over and over again. Am I wrong?

Thanks,

Bogdan.

Yes.....most things are recyclable, but you won't like the cost of doing so.

Take silver, for example.  100 years ago, there were something like 10 billion ounces of it above ground in some form.  Then the industrialization of the 20th century came along, and thousands of uses for silver were found ( and still are being found )....everything from X-ray film to coatings on ball bearings ( cushions the steel ball and makes it last a lot longer ) to coatings on the contacts of the light switch you flip ( reduces wear from the arc as the switch makes/breaks contact ) as you enter a dark room.....and not even mentioning the millions of late 20th century electronic uses....the US Geological Survey outfit did research on cell phones a few years back, and estimated 85 million ounces of silver was locked up in old cell phones sitting around in drawers around the country.

Now, while it's fairly easy to buy a 1,000 oz bar of industrial silver as, say, a ball bearing manufacturer ( call up the Comex and get one ), and coat a few zillion balls, once those are assembled into a bearing and scattered all over the world, it's almost economically impossible to RECOVER that silver which is only worth, at today's price, maybe a penny or two.  WHO, but the most ardent of tree huggers, is going to remove a wheel bearing and take it to a recycle facility ( assuming you could even find one ) for 2 cents worth of steel and 1 cent worth of silver ?  Nobody.  SO the bearing gets tossed in a scrap pile or trash heap, or whatever.....same with a light switch....and how many cell phones are in YOUR drawer ?   The old X-ray films were recycled for their silver, but only because there were a WHOLE LOT of them concentrated in one place.....the X-ray facility....and now, even that has gone digital most places.

So, today, as many third world countries want to enter at least the 20th century, the silver they will need to do so doesn't exist. And the only way to recover it means the price has to go WAY UP.  ( Which, of course, is an excellent reason to buy of silver at it's current dirt cheap price )

The same is true, if only to a lesser degree of economics, with almost ALL materials that could be recycled, but are not.  When the price of an aluminum can hits a buck or so each, ( assuming in today's value of a buck ), then you can bet you won't see a one lining the ditches of the roadside (  I see people out NOW recovering them for couple pennies each )....and heck, we might even go back to glass bottles....what a novel idea....ahahahaaaaaa

 

 

Don Levit's picture
Don Levit
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The public debt being a Ponzi scheme

Folks:

The financing of debt changed quite a bit when Social Security came on board.

The payroll taxes did not go directly to the trust fund.  Rather, "cash income from earmarked sources goes into the Treasury's general fund, which uses the cash for general government purposes."

From an article entiled  "Medicare financial status budget, impact, and sustainability. published in the Health Care Financing Review, Winter, 2005.

The 1938 Advisory Council was concerned about this. It stated "that payroll taxes  are not credited automatically to Social Security, but first go to the Treasury's general fund."

"One of the recommendations  was that the receipt of taxes levied in Title 8 should through permanent appropriation be credited automatically to an old-age insurance fund and not to the general fund for later appropriation to the account."

This was not done, due to constitutional reasons.

Go tohttp://www.ssa.gov/history/reports/38advise.html.

So, the first part of the Ponzi scheme is the payroll taxes themselves.

The second part is the accumulations in the trust fund.

As many of you know, these monies are loaned to the Treasury to spend on general government expenses.

In their place is issued Treasury securities.

This type of financing scheme was of concern to Congressman Wadsworth during the Social Security deliberations before the House.

From the Congressional Record on page 6061  "Heretofore, the government has financed its undertakings primarily and fundamentally as a result of the confidence of the individual citizen in the soundness of the Government's undertaking, but from this point on we are apparently going to abandon that philosophy of public confidence and resort to a very different practice.  The Government is to impose a payroll tax through one of its agencies, collect the money into the Treasury Department, then the Treasury Department with its left hand on the proceeds of these taxes is to turn around and buy bonds of the U.S. Government issued by the right hand of the Treasury Department.  Thus, the Government of the U.S., after this thing gets going,is no longer to be financed directly by its citizens, confident in the soundnessof the Government, but it is to be financed instead by arrangements made within the bureaucracy  -  an undemocratc and dangerous proceeding."

Go to:  http://www.ssa.gov/history/pdf/h419.pdf.

Don Levit

 

MarkM's picture
MarkM
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Re: Daily Digest - July 30
Ken C wrote:
LogansRun wrote:

It takes energy to recycle.

Speaking of recycling-

I always collect the bottles and cans that we use to recycle at the local recycle facility here in Greater LA area. Yesterday when I made my usual monthly trip to the facility I saw a sign posted that indicated that the facility would be closing by end of July. The reason given was the it was no longer economically viable. The facility is run by a private organization and gets payed by the state for the glass and aluminum. When an item is sold a re-cycle fee is collected by Calif. that is supposed to be returned when the can/bottle is recycled. It turns out the the state is not paying ( at least fast enough).

For me I will continue to recycle as much as I can but for many people I am sure the incentive to recycle will be lost if there is no monetary gain.

The spend thrift politicians in Calif. always promise more than they can deliver. It seems that when monies are collected by the gov. ( at any level) it somehow becomes their property to spend as they like regardless of the original intent of the tax/fee collection.

Ken

Ken,

You probably already are aware that some in CA want to borrow against the recycling fund to try and close the present budget gap.  When you are broke, apparently the first thing one should do is borrow.

There is one little problem with that which also sheds some light on your experience.

"In a report released Tuesday, state Auditor Elaine Howle found that the state's beverage container recycling program overstated its projected balance by $158 million in the governor's budget."

http://www.mercurynews.com/ci_15357726?source=rss&nclick_check=1

What a house of cards we are living in.

bikemonkey's picture
bikemonkey
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Posts: 45
Re: Peak Everything

I would like to answer this, because I have a very strong personal opinion. 

My Opinion is that recycling is a psychological band-aid.  I believe it allows us to continue our wasteful ways without modifying our behavior.  Because if we did modify our behavior, there could be no growth and that would result in a bad economic outcome.  I argue this with my wife on a regular basis.  She says it's better to light a candle than to curse the darkness.  I believe recycling distracts us from the real problem.  I believe the roots of most problems are overpopulation and resource depletion.

Here are the Facts and Thoughts that I base my opinion on...

Most metals are just a store of energy.  They were ore, but with energy inputs, they became steel, or aluminum (notable exception is gold, but even gold needs to have energy input to become useful - that is to cast or form it.).  When they are recycled it does take less energy energy to reclaim these materials than the ore burned in the first place, but it still takes a large percentage of that initial energy input, especially for steel. This is why steel container were not considered recyclable until a few years ago.  The bottom line is that if energy costs skyrocket, these materials do too.  This was evident in the last oil spike when these material costs also spiked.

Most plastics are derived from oil.  When the oil is gone, the supply is gone.  But it doesn’t stop there.  Most plastics are long chain molecules than degrade each time they are heated and reformed.  The recycled plastics are not put into high quality items like auto interior components.  They are made into flower pots or shipping pallets or other items that require minimal material properties.  And as the recycling stream entrains more recycled plastics, guess what? The quality of the recycled material degrades even further.  The end product is a very brittle, low strength material that is nearly useless.

The ultimate and final mind game is combined recycling (all recycling but glass goes into on container).  A large portion of these materials are simply burned in Asia to make more energy!  I work in cargo transport and I see containers full of consumer goods come into port from Asia, and they are nearly all returned full of recycled materials, or other low cost items.  They just want the container back, so it is stuffed full of whatever is cheap and bulky.

Not to be all doom, there are bright spots.  Plant based plastics overcome this by using sunlight.  Metal components last longer...maybe a lifetime or even three (I still have my grandfathers chisel set and other hand tools.)  Things made of plastic seem to be designed to fall apart. 

The one exception to my thinking is rare earth elements.  They are called rare because they are!  If you throw away a computer or TV or cell phone, I believe this to be a most egregious insult to humanity there is!

I have expressed a lot of opinion mixed with facts here.  I respect these forums for knowing the difference.

idoctor's picture
idoctor
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Re: Daily Digest - July 30

TechGuy's picture
TechGuy
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Posts: 428
Re: Peak Everything

There is something I don't understand about Peak Everything... It makes sense to talk about Peak Oil, because oil is not a renewable resource, but pretty much everything else is renewable, that is, recyclable: all metals and natural elements can be recycled and reused over and over again. Am I wrong?

1. It can't be recycled if it still in use

2. Some materials become hopeless contaimented to be economically recycled. Some rare earth elements are combined with other elements. The amount of energy required would not be economical.

3. Recycling some elements would create vast amounts of pollution. Consider when rare-elements are packaged inside plastic cases\components. You need to seperate the plastic, either by burning it away, or using solvents to desolve the plastic. Either way you end up creating more polution than it would save by recycling.

4. Recycling takes energy.

Energy is the linchpin to our economy and standard of living. With out a concentrated, economically sound energy source, they whole system comes apart. So far we have not even begun a wide scale mitigation program, and the clock is ticking. The big energy crunch is only ten years away and that simply isn't enough time to save the system.

My current guestimate is a full collapse of civilization with in the next tweleve years +/- 4 years. Energy production is in decline, food production is beginning to decline. We have aging populations that have been promise enoumous entitlements. aquifer are rapidly depleting, and Western and Asia gov'ts are all insolvent. Over the next five years expect to see big changes as major industrial powers begin to face cronic crises that  can't be  fixed. Gov'ts will  fail to meet obligations causing unemployment to soar and higher civil disobedence as workers revolt because they cant find jobs and the gov't is unable provide adquite assistance. I expect China to fall into a civil war, Europe to endure another bout of facism that leads to a global war, and the US to break up into the Divided States of America with in the next ten years.

 

 

V's picture
V
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Dec 14 2009
Posts: 849
Re: Peak Everything
TechGuy wrote:

There is something I don't understand about Peak Everything... It makes sense to talk about Peak Oil, because oil is not a renewable resource, but pretty much everything else is renewable, that is, recyclable: all metals and natural elements can be recycled and reused over and over again. Am I wrong?

1. It can't be recycled if it still in use

2. Some materials become hopeless contaimented to be economically recycled. Some rare earth elements are combined with other elements. The amount of energy required would not be economical.

3. Recycling some elements would create vast amounts of pollution. Consider when rare-elements are packaged inside plastic cases\components. You need to seperate the plastic, either by burning it away, or using solvents to desolve the plastic. Either way you end up creating more polution than it would save by recycling.

4. Recycling takes energy.

Energy is the linchpin to our economy and standard of living. With out a concentrated, economically sound energy source, they whole system comes apart. So far we have not even begun a wide scale mitigation program, and the clock is ticking. The big energy crunch is only ten years away and that simply isn't enough time to save the system.

My current guestimate is a full collapse of civilization with in the next tweleve years +/- 4 years. Energy production is in decline, food production is beginning to decline. We have aging populations that have been promise enoumous entitlements. aquifer are rapidly depleting, and Western and Asia gov'ts are all insolvent. Over the next five years expect to see big changes as major industrial powers begin to face cronic crises that  can't be  fixed. Gov'ts will  fail to meet obligations causing unemployment to soar and higher civil disobedence as workers revolt because they cant find jobs and the gov't is unable provide adquite assistance. I expect China to fall into a civil war, Europe to endure another bout of facism that leads to a global war, and the US to break up into the Divided States of America with in the next ten years.

 

 

A+ TechGuy

The three R'S are REDUCE REUSE RECYCLE. Recycle comes last. It is time to start unbecoming an American. REDUCE REDUCE REDUCE

V

johnf's picture
johnf
Status: Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 7 2008
Posts: 24
Re: Peak Everything
V wrote:

The three R'S are REDUCE REUSE RECYCLE. Recycle comes last. It is time to start unbecoming an American. REDUCE REDUCE REDUCE

Let's add REPAIR

 

idoctor's picture
idoctor
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 4 2008
Posts: 1731
Re: Daily Digest - July 30

Very realistic interview IMHO with Rob Arnott...

http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2010/7/29_Rob_Arnott.html

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