Daily Digest

Daily Digest - January 15

Friday, January 15, 2010, 10:58 AM
  • December Retail Sales Drop 0.3 percent
  • Goldman Admits 'Improper' Actions in Sales of Securities
  • Can Your Comments Affect Your Credit? Yup
  • Britain's Recession the Steepest in 88 Years
  • The Coming Sovereign Debt Crisis
  • Rail Traffic in 2009: Lowest Since at Least 1988
  • Why You Should Be Freaked Out By the Divergence in Household And Establishment Jobs Data
  • Let's Hope These Four Things Don't Happen
  • The US Finds its Superpower Structure and Capital are Insufficient to Cope with a Transformed World
  • The U.S. Gas Rebound
  • Canada's Energy Services Sector Proceeding with Caution
  • U.S. Bird Listing to Hit Energy, Wind Industries
  • Concern Over Giant Mongolian Mine

Economy

December Retail Sales Drop 0.3 percent (E.S.)

Retail sales fell in December as demand for autos, clothing and appliances all slipped, a disappointing finish to a year in which sales had the largest drop on record.

Goldman Admits 'Improper' Actions in Sales of Securities (Ben Johnson)

Goldman Sachs' chief acknowledged Wednesday that the investment bank engaged in "improper" behavior in 2006 and 2007 when it made huge bets on a housing downturn while peddling as safe more than $40 billion in securities backed by risky U.S. home loans. Lloyd Blankfein, Goldman's chairman and chief executive, made the surprising concession at the opening hearing of the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, a 10-member panel that Congress created to investigate and lay out for the public the causes of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.

Can Your Comments Affect Your Credit? Yup. (Ben Johnson)

Did you know that everything you and those in your network do and discuss online may be compiled and provided to creditors? If your settings are tuned to public, it's true. This includes your Facebook status updates, Twitter "tweets," joining online clubs, linking a Web site, and even posting a comment on a news blog (such as, well, this one).

"Britain's Recession the Steepest in 88 Years" (Ben Johnson)

Britain's economy fell last year at the sharpest rate since 1921, despite hopes that it finally emerged from recession in the last three months of the year, according to a respected economics forecaster.   The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said today that its latest estimate showed that GDP rose by a modest 0.3 per cent in the final three months of 2009 compared with the third quarter.

The Coming Sovereign Debt Crisis (Ben Johnson)

In 2009, downgrades and debt auction failures in countries like the UK, Greece, Ireland and Spain were a stark reminder that unless advanced economies begin to put their fiscal houses in order, investors and rating agencies will likely turn from friends to foes. Going forward, a weak economic recovery and an aging population is likely to increase the debt burden of many advanced economies, including the U.S., Britain, Japan and several eurozone countries.

Rail Traffic in 2009: Lowest Since at Least 1988 (Ben Johnson)

Good riddance to 2009. U.S. freight railroads completed a very difficult year by originating 1,241,293 carloads in December, an average of 248,259 carloads per week. That’s down 4.1% from December 2008’s average of 258,915 carloads per week and down 17.6% from December 2007’s average of 301,466.

Why You Should Be Freaked Out By the Divergence in Household And Establishment Jobs Data (Ben Johnson)

The 85,000 decline in December's non-farm payrolls jolted (briefly) the markets back to reality. For it had almost been forgotten in the post-November payroll euphoria that we remain in the midst of a long-lasting balance sheet recession. Yet surprisingly weak though the December payrolls were, this disappointment pales into insignificance compared with the massive 589,000 decline in employment as measured by the Household Survey (the monthly Employment Report contains surveys of both Households and Company Establishments each month).

Let's Hope These Four Things Don't Happen (jrf29)

We'll all be thrilled when the economy stops quivering. The only problem with an upbeat prognosis is that large chunks of the U.S. economy remain addicted to financial painkillers or dependent upon dysfunctional institutions like Fannie and Freddie, and we've never gone through the kind of withdrawal that's set to take place this year. If all goes well, we'll avoid messy complications, such as these:

The US Finds its Superpower Structure and Capital are Insufficient to Cope with a Transformed World (Nickbert)

The United States of America, in global strategic terms, is tumbling down a series of misadventures, declining in a “step of sighs” through frustrating economic and military endeavours as it discovers that its superpower structures and massive capital wealth are insufficient to cope with a transformed world.

Energy

The U.S. Gas Rebound (Neil M.)

"Holy cow, there’s a lot of gas." That was the reaction of Penn State geologist Terry Englander, as reported in the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Technology Review last October. Three years ago, Englander was asked to assess the natural gas potential of Marcellus shale deposits in the U.S. Midwest and Mid-Atlantic regions. It now appears that deep shale beds could be game-changers in the U.S. energy and power generation markets for years to come.

Canada's Energy Services Sector Proceeding with Caution (Neil M.)

The oil and gas industry is adapting quickly to the changing global environment, but Canadian companies are still approaching new opportunities with caution, according to a new Ernst & Young report.

U.S. Bird Listing to Hit Energy, Wind Industries (Neil M.)

Efforts to protect an iconic bird could disrupt oil, natural gas and wind energy development in the U.S. West and add to the Democratic Party's green woes ahead of the 2010 congressional elections.

Environment

Concern Over Giant Mongolian Mine (Nickbert)

The Mongolian Government recently granted long-awaited approval for mining firms Rio Tinto and Ivanhoe Mines Mongolia to start developing the Oyu Tolgoi copper and gold deposit. Rio calls it "the world's best untapped copper reserve" and its been hailed as a "cornerstone for Mongolia's future growth". But an alliance of non-government organisations in Mongolia say the deal breaches the constitution, international law and damages the country's national interests.

19 Comments

Johnny Oxygen's picture
Johnny Oxygen
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Re: Daily Digest - January 15

Punch and Judy, Pontius Pilate and the US dollar

http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2010/01/january-13-2010-punch-and-judy-pontius.html

Broadly publicized and televised commission hearings like the one taking place today and tomorrow have absolutely nothing on your run of the mill Punch and Judy show, and they are perceived as important only because people are told over and over that they are. There is a feeling somewhere up there that "critical" questions for bankers are a good idea at this point in time, but not because something needs to be done about the problem. Just because, politically, something needs to be done. Like holding a hearing. It’s about poll numbers.

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Re: Daily Digest - January 15

"Growing Medicaid caseloads, falling property tax revenue and other budget woes mean the state is now in an even deeper budget hole than experts were predicting last fall.

That likely means layoffs for state workers, Senate budget chief JD Alexander warned Wednesday.

In September, the state's top economists estimated that next fiscal year, Florida would come up $923 million short of meeting its most critical needs, such as in public schools and the courts. Factor in other expenses the state usually covers — such as health care for low-income organ transplant patients — and the predicted shortfall rose to almost $2.7 billion."

"New Yorkers paid $2.5 billion more in property taxes from 2008 to 2009 despite widespread drops in property values, according to The Business Council of New York State Inc.

The research wing of the Albany-based lobby found taxpayers paid $46 billion in property taxes in 2009, a 6 percent increase from the total bill in 2008."

"The U.S. unemployment rate, currently at 10 percent, is unlikely to drop below 8 percent before 2012 unless Congress takes further steps to boost the economy in the short term, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said on Thursday."

"The U.S. Federal Reserve's balance sheet rose to a record level in the latest week, boosted by its ongoing efforts to support the mortgage market, Fed data released on Thursday showed.

The Fed's balance sheet -- a broad gauge of its lending to the financial system -- rose to $2.274 trillion in the week ended January 13 from 2.216 trillion in the prior week."

"Spain and Ireland led European governments raising $34 billion from bonds sold through banks this week as countries start 2010 selling debt at the fastest pace on record to finance growing budget deficits. "

"Euro-region countries may sell a record 1 trillion euros of bonds this year, HSBC Holdings Plc estimates."

"The United States debt is more than $12 trillion and financial guru Marc Faber believes the country will see the consequences of that within the next five to ten years through defaulting on their debt, most likely by printing large quantities of money."

"The cost to U.S. taxpayers of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan since 2001 has topped $1 trillion, and President Barack Obama is expected to request another $33 billion to fund more troops this year."

"Major U.S. banks and securities firms are on pace to pay their people about $145 billion for 2009, a record sum that indicates how compensation is climbing despite fury over Wall Street's pay culture.

An analysis by The Wall Street Journal shows that executives, traders, investment bankers, money managers and others at 38 top financial companies can expect to earn nearly 18% more than they did in 2008—and slightly more than in the record year of 2007. The conclusions are based on an examination of securities filings for the first nine months of 2009 and revenue estimates through year-end."

"Moody's Investors Service put $572.7 billion in Alternative-A residential mortgage-backed securities issued from 2005 through 2007 on watch for possible downgrade after it revised its loss provisions.

The rating agency said Alt-A loans that are 60 or more days delinquent "have increased markedly" since it last revised its loss projections. Alt-A mortgages, which sit between prime and subprime, typically were granted without the borrower showing proof of income or assets.

Ratings agencies have been cutting their ratings on billions of dollars of RMBS deals after revising the amount of losses expected. The changes have occurred as delinquencies continue to climb and home prices keep falling.

Moody's said it now projects, on average, cumulative losses of 14% of the original balance for 2005 securitizations, 29% for 2006 securitizations and 35% for 2007 securitizations. The updated loss projections will have the greatest impact on senior securities issued in 2005, the firm said.

The number of foreclosures is likely to hurt home prices in coming months despite modest gains measured by the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index in recent months, Moody's said.

The credit rater estimated the proportion of current or 30-day delinquent loans that will become 60 or more days delinquent by the second half of this year will be 10.1%, 19.7% and 21.6% for loans issued in 2005, 2006 and 2007, respectively. "

"John Bohane spent more than 30 years at Reader's Digest, rising through the magazine's ranks to become a senior vice president and president of international operations. When he retired in 2001, he did so knowing he had three separate pensions to his name, enough to allow him to retire comfortably in Florida.

But what Bohane and more than 280 other retirees didn't count on was that some of those pensions aren't guaranteed under federal pension laws. So those plans, which are deemed "nonqualified" and may be given to salaried employees as extra compensation, are often terminated when a company files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, as Reader's Digest Association Inc. did in August.

"They did not explain to me that any of my pension was under risk," Bohane said."

"Under its restructuring plan, which a bankruptcy judge will consider approving Friday, Reader's Digest promises its unsecured creditors--including the pensioners--$4 million, which amounts to a recovery of up to 3.6 cents for every dollar they're owed. "

"Investors have speculated that the surprising demand for notes in the past few days has been fuelled by one big mystery bidder, whose intentions are still unclear. "

................Financial Times video on the mystery bidder

"Funding shortfalls in West Virginia’s public pensions worsened by $2 billion during the past budget year, after Wall Street’s meltdown erased years of gains.

The Consolidated Public Retirement Board announced unfunded liabilities totaling $7 billion.

The plan that provides benefits to 29,245 retired state teachers suffered the worst hit. Investment losses left it just 41 percent funded."

"In a sign of the gravity of the state's fiscal crisis, Minnesota budget officials may force public school districts to loan the state money so that it can continue paying its bills.

Gov. Tim Pawlenty's administration could withhold nearly $1 billion in state aid payments to public schools through May, to ensure the state's checkbook doesn't run dry, under a plan unveiled Wednesday at a legislative committee meeting.

The state already has the legal authority to do so, although it has never exercised it."

"After suffering 30 percent or greater losses in the value of their homes last year, homeowners are looking forward to a silver lining this year in the form of lower property taxes as assessments adjust to the new real estate reality.

Unfortunately, for millions there may be no silver lining.

Nationally, property tax revenues rose 6.2 percent in 2008 according to the National League of Cities, but increased only 1.6 percent last year as property assessments, which are usually conducted every three years, reflected lower values.

Saddled with budget crises rooted in the recession and reliant on property taxes for 30 to 40 percent of their budgets, local governments across the country are responding to the threat to their bottom line by raising taxes. In fact, local government’s across the nation are facing fiscal crises this year. Prohibited by law from operating in a deficit, 56 percent of counties report starting their fiscal years with up to $10 million projected shortfalls. according to the National Association of Counties. More county officials blame their shortfalls in property tax revenues than any other factor."

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ELIZABETH S.
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Re: Daily Digest - January 15

Can Your Comments Affect Your Credit? Yup. (Ben Johnson)

Did you know that everything you and those in your network do and discuss online may be compiled and provided to creditors? If your settings are tuned to public, it's true. This includes your Facebook status updates, Twitter "tweets," joining online clubs, linking a Web site, and even posting a comment on a news blog (such as, well, this one).

~~~~~~~~~~~~

This is completely Orwellian. Say the wrong thing and you can be ruined financially. Scary stuff.

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gregroberts
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Re: Daily Digest - January 15

Fake gold bars in Bank of England and Fort Knox

http://www.daily.pk/fake-gold-bars-in-bank-of-england-and-fort-knox-14477/

Johnny Oxygen's picture
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Re: Daily Digest - January 15

Fake gold bars in Bank of England and Fort Knox

I did it...sorry.

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Re: Daily Digest - January 15

Google vs. CCP: All the possible WHYs - Chinayouren Poll- I know, there are other news in the World, and I am probably not paying enough attention to them. But I can’t help it, I’ve been overclocking for the last 48h trying to understand Google’s decision, I have read every single article appeared on the internet since. And I still don’t get it. I want to make this a collaborative page, I will keep it on top and I would appreciate comments with clues and POVs I might have missed. The objective is to come up with reasonable hypothesis and then cross out the wrong ones. I will also add interesting bits of info below as they come out:

(chinese netizens speculations on google threat)

bklement's picture
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Re: Daily Digest - January 15
Johnny Oxygen wrote:

Fake gold bars in Bank of England and Fort Knox

I did it...sorry.

Well there goes your credit rating.

One1776's picture
One1776
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Re: Daily Digest - January 15

Walking on Sunshine!!!

Full Moon's picture
Full Moon
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Re: Daily Digest - January 15
bklement wrote:
Johnny Oxygen wrote:

Fake gold bars in Bank of England and Fort Knox

I did it...sorry.

Well there goes your credit rating.

  JOHNNNNYYYY,   You Aint a gunna go a tell evrbudy  thet ya buried the real stuff behind der hog pen ,under the oak tree , by the purdy pink flag are ya ??   Or twas that the hull ya brung home time befure last ???

 Just joking with ya

Johnny Oxygen's picture
Johnny Oxygen
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Re: Daily Digest - January 15

  I knew that degree in tungsten technology would come in handy!

Now if I can just find some place to put all this dern' gold.

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SagerXX
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Re: Daily Digest - January 15
Johnny Oxygen wrote:

  I knew that degree in tungsten technology would come in handy!

Now if I can just find some place to put all this dern' gold.

I've got some space in my shed.  I'd be happy to help.

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gallantfarms
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Re: Daily Digest - January 15

A good read from Bill Bonner of the Daily Reckoning:  "The A to A of Government Inefficiency"

 

http://dailyreckoning.com/the-a-to-a-of-government-inefficiency/

 

"It makes sense to ‘save’ a job if and only if the job didn’t need saving. In other words, the jobs that are worth doing are worth saving…but they don’t need saving. Why? Because a job that is worth doing is a job people will pay for. And if they won’t…or can’t…it’s NOT worth doing.

Otherwise, the feds could have 100% employment…just as they did in the Soviet Union. Give everybody a job. What the heck, give everybody two jobs! But it only really does any good if the jobs are productive. And how can you know if they’re productive or not? You have to wait for Mr. Market to tell you. If a job is productive, people will pay for it. If not, well…the job is cut and/or the business goes bust.

Mr. Market never gets a say on government jobs, however. That’s why the feds can say any fool thing they want."

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Damnthematrix
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Re: Daily Digest - January 15
The German solar industry was built on the back of subsidies,
not sustainability.

 

 
Solarworld, Q-Cells Drop as Germany Poised to Reduce Solar Aid

By Nicholas Comfort and Brian Parkin

Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Solarworld AG and Q-Cells SE led declines among Germany’s solar power companies after Reuters reported that the government will reduce aid to the industry by more than some analysts estimated.

Solarworld slumped as much as 6.5 percent in Frankfurt trading, the biggest intraday drop in more than four months. Q- Cells fell as much as 5.7 percent, while Solon SE lost as much as 7.1 percent.

Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government is seeking to trim solar-power subsidies after prices for photovoltaic panels fell last year. A reduction of as much as 17 percent in April, as reported by Reuters, would be “negative for the whole sector,” UniCredit SpA said today in a note to clients.

That’s deeper than the 10 percent cut estimated by UniCredit and would come three months sooner than expected, Munich-based analyst Michael Tappeiner wrote. A drop in German demand could cause a global surplus in the first half and reduce prices for solar equipment by 10 percent or more, he said.

Solarworld retreated as much as 1.025 euros, the most since Sept. 1, and traded down 73 cents at 14.945 euros as of 10:58 a.m. local time. Solon fell 60 cents to 7.82 euros and Q-Cells dropped 70.5 cents to 11.665 euros.

“The subsidy cuts would initially reduce investment returns in the ground-mounted solar park segment to unattractive levels,” Tappeiner said. Q-Cells and Phoenix Solar AG have the “largest exposure” to these large-scale power generators in Germany, according to the analyst.

Phoenix Solar sank as much as 7.3 percent to 37.56 euros, the biggest intraday decline since Nov. 12, and traded at 38.55 euros as of 10:58 a.m.

Germany won’t make a decision on solar-power subsidies until next week at the earliest, Environment Ministry spokesman Ronald Heinemann said today by telephone.

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Damnthematrix
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Re: Daily Digest - January 15

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/vic-faces-summer-... Vic faces summer power restrictions if drought continues September 15, 2007 12:00AM THE Victorian Government has not ruled out voluntary power restrictions this summer as the drought takes its toll on the state's electricity generators. The National Generators Forum (NGF) has warned Victorian power supplies could be under threat unless the big dry breaks. The Latrobe Valley's coal-fired power stations in eastern Victoria supply 85 per cent of the state's power. But they need 140 billion litres of water each year to operate. Opposition energy and resources spokesman Robert Clark says the Government has failed to secure the state's water supply and voluntary power restrictions would be tough to swallow. "Victorians are already suffering from water shortages and public transport shortages due to poor planning by the Bracks and Brumby Governments. The last thing Victorians want is power restrictions over summer," he said. There was also a "real risk" of price hikes if power shortages put pressure on wholesale electricity prices, he said. Deputy Premier Rob Hulls would not say whether power restrictions were a possibility. He said the Government was doing all it could to safeguard the state's electricity supply. "We can't make it rain, obviously. We all hope it rains, but as a Government we can't make it rain, but we're certainly in discussions with power companies over supplies," Hulls said. "I'm not going to pre-empt those types of issues (restrictions), save to say that the Government will continue to have discussions with power companies in relation to security of supply."

Damnthematrix's picture
Damnthematrix
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the Matrix is at it again........
Kaspersky Labs CEO Calls For An End To Online Anonymity
 
Web security company and Russia’s top anti-virus software package, Kaspersky Labs, is publicly calling for and end to online anonymity and the establishment of mandatory ‘Internet passports.’ Eugene Kaspersky explained that originally the internet was not created for public use but rather for American scientists and the US military. He claimed that it should have been changed when introduced to the public. His statement was delivered in an interview in ZDNet Asia this past week.
 
In addition, Eugene Kaspersky believes that there should be a single and uniform internet police agency, who would issue and enforce the online indentity system.
 
It is obvious to say that civil liberties advocates are going to speak out against such movements.
Damnthematrix's picture
Damnthematrix
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Re: Daily Digest - January 15

Don't say I didn't warn you all of the deadly embrace -
lack of electricity prevents oil production,
which loses money, which prevents fixing the electricity ...
If the Venezuelan Energy Minister says it won't happen, then it probably will.

http://english.eluniversal.com/2010/01/15/en_eco_esp_energy-minister:-po...
Energy Minister: Power cuts will not hit oil production
Oil output in Venezuela will not be affected by the power cuts planned by the government throughout the country to save energy, said on January 15 Minister of Energy and Petroleum Rafael Ramírez.

"Production operations are being secured under the rationing policy. Neither output nor oil enhancement or refining have been affected at all," said Ramírez, as quoted by AFP.

The minister emphasized that "most of the operational areas have (power) self-generation. We lack self-generation in (the refinery of) Jose, but we are making every possible effort to generate power."

"No activity has been halted, neither in (petrochemical company) Pequiven nor in Pdvsa, and they will not stop," said the minister.

Venezuela produces 3.06 million barrels per day (mbd), according to official figures, although the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) puts Venezuelan output at an estimated 2.3 mbd.

The Venezuelan government is carrying out a rationing program to save energy amid a severe crisis caused by a collapsed electrical generation system and exacerbated by drought.

This week, the government executed the plan of scheduled cuts in electricity supply. However, the plan was suspended in Caracas a day after it caused an "unintended impact," admitted President Hugo Chávez.

Power cuts, however, remain effective in the other states in the country.

The energy saving program also includes stoppages in some iron and aluminum companies, and the reduction in working hours of state companies and malls.

According to official figures, the demand for electricity in Venezuela is approximately 1,000 megawatts (MW) higher than daily generation, which is around 16,200 MW.

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Sam
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Re: Daily Digest - January 15

Good morning folks. I have a request, can someone smart do an analysis on what this natural gas study means for our energy situation? It looks to me that this may give us some leverage to recover from the collapse that the thugs in DC and NY are setting  up.

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Re: Daily Digest - January 15

A friend just emailed this storm warning to me, wish I would not have sold our boat.

rom: UC Environmental Protection Services Issues
[mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Robert Charbonneau
Sent: Thursday, January 14, 2010 1:24 PM
To: [email protected]
Subject: Winter Storm Warning starting Sunday

Currently, the strong El Nino is reaching its peak in the Eastern
Pacific, and now finally appears to be exerting an influence on our
weather.  The strong jet has been apparent for quite some time out over
the open water, but the persistent block had prevented it from reaching
the coast.  Now that the block has dissolved completely, a 200+ kt jet
is barreling towards us.  Multiple large and powerful storm systems are
expected to slam into CA from the west and northwest over the coming two
weeks, all riding this extremely powerful jet stream directly into the
state.  The jet will itself provide tremendous dynamic lift, in addition
to directing numerous disturbances right at the state and supplying them
with an ample oceanic moisture source..  The jet will be at quite a low
latitude over much of the Pacific, so these storms will be quite cold,
at least initially.  Very heavy rainfall and strong to potentially very
strong winds will impact the lower elevations beginning late Sunday and
continuing through at least the following Sunday.  This will be the case
for the entire state, from (and south of) the Mexican border all the way
up to Oregon.  Above 3000-4000 feet, precipitation will be all snow, and
since temperatures will be unusually cold for a precipitation event of
this magnitude, a truly prodigious amount of snowfall is likely to occur
in the mountains, possibly measured in the tens of feet in the Sierra
after it's all said and done. But there's a big and rather threatening
caveat to that (discussed below). Individual storm events are going to
be hard to time for at least few more days, since this jet is just about
as powerful as they come (on this planet, anyway).  Between this Sunday
and the following Sunday, I expect categorical statewide rainfall totals
in excess of 3-4 inches.  That is likely to be a huge underestimate for
most areas.  Much of NorCal is likely to see 5-10 inches in the
lowlands, with 10-20 inches in orographically-favored areas.  Most of
SoCal will see 3-6 inches at lower elevations, with perhaps triple that
amount in favored areas.

This is where things get even more interesting, though.  The models are
virtually unanimous in "reloading" the powerful jet stream and forming
an additional persistent kink 2000-3000 miles to our southwest after
next Sunday.  This is a truly ominous pattern, because it implies the
potential for a strong Pineapple-type connection to develop.  Indeed,
the 12z GFS now shows copious warm rains falling between days 12 and 16
across the entire state.  Normally, such as scenario out beyond day
seven would be dubious at best. Since the models are in such truly
remarkable agreement, however, and because of the extremely high
potential impact of such an event, it's worth mentioning now.  Since
there will be a massive volume of freshly-fallen snow (even at
relatively low elevations between 3000-5000 feet), even a moderately
warm storm event would cause very serious flooding.  This situation will
have to be monitored closely.  Even if the tropical connection does not
develop, expected rains in the coming 7-10 days will likely be
sufficient to cause flooding in and of themselves (even in spite of dry
antecedent conditions).

In addition to very heavy precipitation, powerful winds may result from
very steep pressure gradients associated with the large and deep low
pressure centers expect ed to begin approaching the coast by early next
week..  Though it's not clear at the moment just how powerful these winds
may be, there is certainly the potential for a widespread damaging wind
event at some point, and the high Sierra peaks are likely to see gusts
in the 100-200 mph range (since the 200kt jet at 200-300 mb will
essentially run directly into the mountains at some point).  The details
of this will have to be hashed out as the event(s) draw closer.

In short, the next 2-3 weeks (at least) are likely to be more active
across California than any other 2-3 week period in recent memory.  The
potential exists for a dangerous flood scenario to arise at some point
during this interval, especially with the possibility of a heavy
rain-on-snow event during late week 2.  In some parts of Southern
California
, a whole season's worth of rain could fall over the course of
5-10 days.  This is likely to be a rather memorable event. Stay tuned....

Ken C's picture
Ken C
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Re: Daily Digest - January 15

Greg

In addition to this we are expecting serious mudslide problems around the foothills near LA. The recent fires here have left the hillls/mountains quite bare and with any significant rain we will have flooding and serious mudslides and debris flow.

It should be a really interesting next two weeks.

Now where did I put my waders?

Ken

 

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