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Daily Digest - Dec 23

Monday, December 22, 2008, 8:40 PM
  • Where'd the bailout money go? Shhhh, it's a secret
  • Bill Sharon ChrisMartenson Interview
  • Ron Paul & Peter Schiff Video
  • Financial Sense Newshour 3rd Hour
  • Banking Regulator Played Advocate Over Enforcer ensuring failure
  • Official says Calif. could be broke in 2 months
  • Recession Slows Migration in U.S.
  • Statement by the Press Secretary on Irresponsible Reporting by New York Times
  • A problem that almost no one saw as it was happening [Monday, April 04, 2005]
  • Federal Reserve is damned either way as it battles debt and deflation
  • OCC and OTS Mortgage Metrics Report, Disclosure of National Bank and Federal Thrift Mortgage Loan Data
  • Why the Auto Bailout's a Dead End
  • Developers Ask U.S. for Bailout as Massive Debt Looms
  • Increased shoplifting is another sign of bad times
  • Cramer Gets One Right - Social Security IS the Biggest Ponzi Scheme
  • Mortgage activity surges at US banks
  • Will the Financial Bailout Undermine the US Defined Benefit Pension System?
  • Department of the Treasury, 2008 Financial Report all 194 pages

Economy 

Where'd the bailout money go? Shhhh, it's a secret 

WASHINGTON (AP) - It's something any bank would demand to know before handing out a loan: Where's the money going?
But after receiving billions in aid from U.S. taxpayers, the nation's largest banks say they can't track exactly how they're spending the money or they simply refuse to discuss it. 

"We've lent some of it. We've not lent some of it. We've not given any accounting of, 'Here's how we're doing it,'" said Thomas Kelly, a spokesman for JPMorgan Chase, which received $25 billion in emergency bailout money. "We have not disclosed that to the public. We're declining to.

The Associated Press contacted 21 banks that received at least $1 billion in government money and asked four questions: How much has been spent? What was it spent on? How much is being held in savings, and what's the plan for the rest?

None of the banks provided specific answers. 

Note: The next 3 posts are to emphasize the 37:00 to 41:00 minute part of Chris's Bill Sharon's Interview. Please parse out any political opinions, these posts I put here to point out the financial mess, SEC oversite, or lack thereof and corporate connections.

Bill Sharon ChrisMartenson Interview [Please Scroll to 37:00 point to 41:00]

Ron Paul & Peter Schiff Video [7:22 no real economy, 7:57 Kindergarden Analogy, 8:44 91,000 calls and emails, 85,000 opposed bailout, I'm voting YES!?!?]

3rd Hour Year End Review [3rd Hour Year End Review, Please Scroll to Crimes of the Century 53:59 to 1:10]

Banking Regulator Played Advocate Over Enforcer Agency Let Lenders Grow Out of Control, Then Fail 

When Countrywide Financial felt pressured by federal agencies charged with overseeing it, executives at the giant mortgage lender simply switched regulators in the spring of 2007. 

The benefits were clear: Countrywide's new regulator, the Office of Thrift Supervision, promised more flexible oversight of issues related to the bank's mortgage lending. For OTS, which depends on fees paid by banks it regulates and competes with other regulators to land the largest financial firms, Countrywide was a lucrative catch.

But OTS was not an effective regulator. This year, the government has seized three of the largest institutions regulated by OTS, including IndyMac Bancorp, Washington Mutual -- the largest bank in U.S. history to go bust -- and on Friday evening, Downey Savings and Loan Association. The total assets of the OTS thrifts to fail this year: $355.7 billion. Three others were forced to sell to avoid failure, including Countrywide. 

Official says Calif. could be broke in 2 months 

SACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP) - A California official is warning that the state will run out of money in about two months unless a budget deal is struck. 

State Controller John Chiang said Monday that his office could be forced to defer billions of dollars in payments or issue IOUs.

He says the instability of the banking industry has made borrowing money to bridge the gap an uncertain possibility.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is raising hopes of a budget deal this week. He says he wants to work with Democratic leaders to close a $42 billion shortfall projected through mid-2010.

Schwarzenegger says he and lawmakers are making progress on an $18 billion proposal that was passed without Republican support. 

Recession Slows Migration in U.S. 

The recession and housing bust have slowed migration throughout the U.S., keeping more Americans in place, according to Census Bureau data released Monday. 

Such states as New York, Massachusetts and New Jersey are holding onto more of their residents, while some of the Sun Belt states accustomed to attracting new arrivals are seeing fewer.

The latest Census Bureau numbers cover the 12 months ending July 1, 2008. The period includes the first seven months of the recession, and shows how the economic downturn has already affected jobs and the flow of people.

U.S. migration typically slows during recessions because new jobs are the primary reason people move across state lines, according to the Pew Research Center. With the country on track to shed more than 2 million jobs this year, there are fewer reasons to move.

Falling home prices also have prompted many people to to stay put, rather than risk losing money in a declining housing market. 

Statement by the Press Secretary on Irresponsible Reporting by New York Times 

Most people can accept that a news story recounting recent events will be reliant on '20-20 hindsight'. Today's front-page New York Times story relies on hindsight with blinders on and one eye closed. 

The Times' 'reporting' in this story amounted to finding selected quotes to support a story the reporters fully intended to write from the onset, while disregarding anything that didn't fit their point of view. To prove the point, when they filed their story, NYT reporters were completely unfamiliar with the President's prime time address to the nation where he laid out in detail all of the causes of the housing and financial crises. For example, the President highlighted a factor that economists agree on: that the most significant factor leading to the housing crisis was cheap money flowing into the U.S. from the rest of the world, so that there was no natural restraint on flush lenders to push loans on Americans in risky ways. This flow of funds into the U.S. was unprecedented. And because it was unprecedented, the conditions it created presented unprecedented questions for policymakers.

In his address the President also explained in detail the failure of financial institutions to perform normal and necessary due diligence in creating, buying and selling new financial products -- a problem that almost no one saw as it was happening. 

A problem that almost no one saw as it was happening [Monday, April 04, 2005] 

I have taken to calling the housing market a "bubble". But how do I define a bubble? 

A bubble requires both overvaluation based on fundamentals and speculation. It is natural to focus on an asset's fundamental value, but the real key for detecting a bubble is speculation - the topic of this post. Speculation tends to chase appreciating assets, and then speculation begets more speculation, until finally, for some reason that will become obvious to all in hindsight, the "bubble" bursts. 

Federal Reserve is damned either way as it battles debt and deflation 

Clearly the US is already in the grip of debt-deflation. "The obvious conclusion is that the Fed should print money to purchase private sector assets so as to drive up their price," he said. 

Fed chief Ben Bernanke does not need prompting. He made his name as a Princeton professor studying the "credit channel" causes of depressions. Now fate has put him in charge of the channel.

Under his guidance, the Fed has this week pledged to "employ all available tools" to stave off deflation - and damn the torpedoes. It will purchase "large quantities of agency debt and mortgage-backed securities." It will evaluate "the potential benefits of purchasing longer-term Treasury securities," i.e, printing money to pay the Pentagon.

Put bluntly, the Fed is deliberately stoking inflation. At some point it will succeed. Then the risk flips quickly to spiralling inflation as the elastic snaps back. There will be a second point of danger.

By late 2009, if not before, the bond vigilantes may start to fret about the liquidity lake. They will worry that the Fed may have to start feeding its holdings of debt back onto the market. The Fed's balance sheet has already risen from $800bn in September to $2.2 trillion this month. It will be $3 trillion by early next year.

"The bond markets could go into free fall," said Marc Ostwald from Monument Securities.

"The Fed went into this all guns blazing just as the Neo-cons went into Iraq thinking it was a great idea to get rid of Saddam, without planning an exit strategy. As soon as we get the first uptick in inflation, the markets are going to turn and say this is what we feared would happen all along. Then what?" he said. 

OCC and OTS Mortgage Metrics Report, Disclosure of National Bank and Federal Thrift Mortgage Loan Data [Modified loans foreclosure rates, redefault rate 55% - page 5, Overall Mortgage Performance - page 12,Foreclosures in Proces - page 25]

Why the Auto Bailout's a Dead End  

Lost in all the news coverage is the fact that many car dealers played a central role in creating the current mess. As franchisees of the manufacturers, car dealers don't make much money actually selling cars. The markups are pretty slim, and in recent years, Detroit has squeezed their dealerships for more and more profits. In the old days, car dealers would come up with creative ways to compensate for the small margins, such as rolling back odometers to sell cars for more than they were worth. But after Congress cracked down on the practice, dealers (and manufacturers, too) found a better way to pump up their bottom lines: selling financing. 

Back in 2003, Forbes magazine observed that GM was better described as a bank that happens to make cars than as an automaker. At the time, as much as 90 percent of the company's profits came from its lending arm (which also had a mortgage branch), not from car sales. For the past decade, much of Detroit's output has been little more than a vehicle for selling credit, and the dealers have done the dirty work for them the way local mortgage brokers generated large volumes of questionable loans for big banks and finance firms. 

Developers Ask U.S. for Bailout as Massive Debt Looms 

With a record amount of commercial real-estate debt coming due, some of the country's biggest property developers have become the latest to go hat-in-hand to the government for assistance. 

They're warning policymakers that thousands of office complexes, hotels, shopping centers and other commercial buildings are headed into defaults, foreclosures and bankruptcies. The reason: according to research firm Foresight Analytics LCC, $530 billion of commercial mortgages will be coming due for refinancing in the next three years -- with about $160 billion maturing in the next year. Credit, meanwhile, is practically nonexistent and cash flows from commercial property are siphoning off. 

Increased shoplifting is another sign of bad times

On a recent day, Jim Cahill strolled through the electronics department and perused the CDs at Nebraska Furniture Mart in Kansas City, Kan.

Instead of buying the Slim Shady CD, he was out to steal it. Within seconds he had the disc in his pants pocket.

He continued strolling through the store, but within minutes he was surrounded by guards. After a brief struggle, he was in handcuffs.

But Cahill wasn't about to head off to jail. He is the loss prevention general manager for the Omaha-based retailer and was leading a training program. Such programs are important to profitability - particularly this year.

Cahill said shoplifting has increased nearly 60 percent from mid-September through mid-December compared with the same period in 2007.

Consider it another sign of the times.

"There are the pressures of the holidays that always drive up theft," Cahill said. "But the economic downturn has increased the temptation to steal.

"But it's not for gift-giving. Now a lot is things for personal use."

To be sure, this isn't just the season for giving. Taking also is on the rise.

Shoplifters and employees who steal walked away with $34.8 billion in 2007, or an average of $350 per U.S. household, according to the National Retail Federation in Washington, D.C. The shoplifting portion is estimated at $12 billion.

 

Cramer Gets One Right - Social Security IS the Biggest Ponzi Scheme

Mortgage activity surges at US banks

US banks are having trouble handling a surge of mortgage applications spurred by dramatically lower interest rates, after record loan defaults and thousands of job cuts have stretched mortgage industry resources to the limit.

Applications for home loans more than doubled in the two weeks after the Federal Reserve said it would buy mortgage bonds to help stabilise the market, prompting mortgage rates to fall by more than three-quarters of a percentage point.

With average rates for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage now at about 5.2 per cent, growing numbers of borrowers have an incentive to refinance to bring down their mortgage costs.

But tighter underwriting standards for prospective borrowers, combined with funding and staffing difficulties for mortgage originators, are likely to restrict the supply of new mortgages.

"The mortgage industry is collectively unprepared to deal with a cascade of business; staffs were pared to the bone as the market for mortgages shrank over the past year," analysts at HSH Associates wrote in a note to clients.

Mahesh Swaminathan, mortgage analyst at Credit Suisse, said that as a result, lower rates would not necessarily create a wave of mortgage refinancing on the scale that was seen in 2003, when credit markets were healthy.

"There is a lot of pipeline congestion. Originators don't have the staffing or the credit lines to fund a lot of loans," said Mr Swaminathan. "You have more due diligence which requires more staffing. It is not something that can be changed overnight."

Will the Financial Bailout Undermine the US Defined Benefit Pension System?  

As the financial crisis deepens, the world's central banks and financial authorities have gained broad support for their efforts to reintroduce liquidity to the credit markets, get banks to lend again and bring down spreads and bond yields. But these sensible and indeed required steps to avoid a repeat of the 1930s may come with a drawback: a rapid decline in corporate bond yields, which threaten to produce rapidly rising funding shortfalls in defined benefit (DB) pension funds. 

Many US corporate and state and local government defined benefit pension funds-retirement systems in which the benefit is governed by formula and not by a return on investments-found themselves in severe financial stress following the bursting of the internet and stock market bubbles in 2001. The acute problems then for pension plans in the steel and airline industries and with the Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation (PBGC) are well known. After 2001, pension plan sponsors were hit not just by the internet bust, but by a triple-whammy-first, declining stock markets, reducing the value of the assets; second, declining interest rates and high-quality (AA) bond-yields, increasing the value of their pension liabilities; and third, the gradual introduction of (much required) transparency in the accounting standards for the balance sheets and income statements of sponsors' pension funds. As a result, increased sponsor contributions and rising asset prices brought US DB pension plans back to about full funding levels on average only by 2006-07.

In today's financial crisis, US corporations and state and local governments with a DB pension plan have so far been hit in different ways. The large recent declines in global stock markets have hit pension plan asset valuations hard,1 and without doubt the Pension Protection Act (PPA) of 2006 (for corporations) as well as the gradual introduction of accrual accounting methods for state and local government pension funds by the Governmental Accounting Standards Board (GASB) will require future increases in pension plan sponsors' pension contribution levels. In late 2008, we will therefore see the first recessionary "political stress-test" of America's pension laws so painstakingly reformed by Congress and federal regulators after 2001. In fact, on November 13, the first letter from DB pension plan sponsors to Congress was sent, requesting that the Pension Protection Act be watered down in response to the credit crisis. 

Department of the Tresury, 2008 Financial Report all 194 pages

 

 

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16 Comments

Davos's picture
Davos
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Re: Daily Digest - Dec 23

Cartoon Eric G. Lewis

joemanc's picture
joemanc
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Re: Daily Digest - Dec 23

We can barely scrape money together to keep our auto industry alive, but we have plenty of money to keep our military industrial complex in business, with 2 new subs a year. Unbelievable.

http://www.courant.com/business/hcu-navy-1223,0,7633017.story 

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SteveLam
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Interesting reading...deflation

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/gala-issue-biggest-sea-change-of-our-lifetime-3-28912

I am a paid subcriber....never post.  interesting reading above link, not sure how correct it is! 

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kemosavvy
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Re: Daily Digest - Dec 23

joemanc, that is a very valid point. i was an f-15 mechanic in the u.s. air force up until last summer, i caluculated that we were burning $98,000 a day... in AIRCRAFT FUEL! that is just one small air force base, flying 16 sorties. seymour johnson afb flies upwards up 96 sorties a day, possibly burning $588,000 in aircraft fuel. now add to that the costs of supporting these military operations and all the admin, and staffing, and equipment, and contractors, and subcontractors, etc. millions of dollars a day from one air force base. what is most upsetting is that society yields almost no benefit from this activity. the chicago school of economics would argue that this is the military industrial complex stimulus package.

Davos's picture
Davos
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Re: Daily Digest - Dec 23

Hello KemoSavvy:

Not to eavesdrop but I thought you might find this interesting, http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a3GVhIHGyWRM&

Take care 

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deadman
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Re: Daily Digest - Dec 23

Thanks for sharing the Schiff/Paul video- but I hope our readers don't buy into crazy propaganda clips like that!

Cramer is right about Social Security being a Ponzi Scheme- how 'bout global capitalism?

Finally, anyone got any feedback about buying into USO at this stage? 

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G
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Re: Daily Digest - Dec 23

I am afraid there is no propaganda in that Schiff/Paul clip. Seems like the facts to me, backed up by the Crash Course. Time for us to wake up.

I give a lot of respect to Paul and Schiff, they have been ridiculed in the media for years, and now there is some vindication for them for sticking to the truth.

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Re: Daily Digest - Dec 23

Deadman, I am curious. Could you elaborate a bit on what you see as crazy propaganda in the Schiff/Paul video. I thought the clips were great and I really want to hear an opposing view. What specifically is the propaganda? I really do want to hear your point of view.

Yes, good for Cramer - he finally got something right! And if you are calling global capitalism a Ponzi scheme, I would agree - if you are referring to the government created and controlled type, which is I suppose, the only type there is.

Davos's picture
Davos
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Re: Daily Digest - Dec 23

Hello:

I caught a wiff of a political undertone to the Schiff/Paul clip, just to clarify the only reason I posted it was for 3 short parts of the ten minute video. 

 

  • 7:22 no real economy, (just a bubble built on credit)
  • 7:57 Kindergarten Analogy, (Feds hand with interest rates spurred illegal activity in mortgage sector)
  • 8:44 91,000 calls and emails, 85,000 opposed bailout, I'm voting YES!?!? (Congress not listening to constituents - which is what Chris was talking about in his clip with the 40:1 and 80:1 ratios)
In Newt's 53:00 minute point on FSN News-hour above clip - I didn't like posting it because there was a lot of finger pointing towards the two parties and a lot of stereotyping. Having said that, his scandals speech caught my attention.
 
The highlights of Newt's speach: 
 
  • I think there are going to be two scandals coming out of this process when we get around to all the historians 
  • It’s reached a stage where you might actually have political reporters try and understand financial things.
  • One of the scandals will be the entire process of political donations and power on Capitol Hill and the degree to which people like Senator Chris Dodd, who was the largest recipient of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is also in charge of the committee overseeing them. [Bold - my emphasis added]
  • And I suspect you may see a serious proposal to adopt a rule that no one who’s a member of a committee can take money from any political action committee or anyone involved in the industries they oversee.
  • We're clearly going to have to look deeply because there is something fundamentally sick about watching the way in which the Congress has dealt with this. 
  • The second, though, is Secretary Paulson.  I think it is profoundly troubling that the chief of staff to the president worked for Goldman Sachs, the Secretary of the Treasury worked for Goldman Sachs. 
  • I’m told the person brought in to oversee Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac was a past chairman of Goldman Sachs.
  • We learned in the New York Times on Sunday that the only private sector institution that was in the meeting at the New York Federal Reserve to discuss the future of AIG was the chairman of Goldman Sachs, and that Goldman Sachs had a 20 billion dollar interest in AIG and two weeks later the Federal government found 85 billion dollars to bail out AIG. [again, the bold is my enphasis added]
  • I received an email this morning from a very, very successful businessman who literally is worth hundreds of million of dollars and is very shrewd, who said, and I can’t prove this yet but we’ll be working on it all day today, if you look at the collapse of Bear Stearns, that it was his understanding that Goldman Sachs had been shorting Bear Stearns and that the head of Morgan said he would have paid more for Bear Stearns and was told by Paulson that he could only pay $2 a share.
  • But here are things that need to be looked at. Was Goldman Sachs shorting Bear Stearns?  Did Secretary Paulson insist on the lowest possible price deliberately, and if so, why? 
  • Why did he punish those particular shareholders, or was he in fact indirectly rewarding Goldman Sachs?  Was Goldman Sachs, as the New York Times alleges, the only company in the room at the New York Federal Reserve in deciding the fate of AIG?  And by what standard, by what right?
  • I think this is frankly a level of such appearance of corruption, and I think that Secretary Paulson has shown in every way his complete misunderstanding of the job of Secretary of the Treasury (and I just cite – go back and look at his original proposal to give him personally 700 billion dollars with no accountability, no legislative oversight and no judicial review) that I really think the president would be vastly better off to accept his resignation
Okay, hope that clarifies things, and as I said before above, please parse out the political BS, I didn't post it to emphasize that, I posted it to show that our political will was tossed out of the tub with the water, the "Fed" has run amok, and Congress and the Treasury are making an alleged crook like Madoff as clean as Mother Teresa.

 

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Re: Daily Digest - Dec 23

Chris, great interview with Bill Sharon!  (Davos gives link above.)  I really enjoyed getting a chance to listen to you discuss our current situation interactively with Bill. It's been a while since I finished the Crash Course, so it was nice to get a chance to hear you speak about the issues again!  I also thought that Bill Sharon did an excellent job hosting you; he obviously has a lot of respect for the work you did on the Crash Course and that you continue doing trying to make people more aware. 

One of the topics I found very interesting was your discussion about the book "The Tipping Point", by Malcolm Gladwell.   I find the idea that as little as 8% of the population can initiate change to be very encouraging and motivating!  

If anyone goes to listen to the interview, be forewarned that Bill had some technical difficulties for around the first 6 minutes.  But once you get past that, the interview runs fine, and is well worth the listen.

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Re: Daily Digest - Dec 23
kemosavvy wrote:

what is most upsetting is that society yields almost no benefit from this activity.

You hit it right on the head. As Chris showed in the Crash Course, once you make a bomb and blow it up, what do you have left? At least when you spend money on a road or a bridge, that may lead to more economic development.

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Re: Daily Digest - Dec 23

I kick myself for missing that the recent events of 2008 were what folks like Schiff were predicting a lot earlier.  The information identifying these risks was there; I just didn't know about it.  Sure, videos like that are a bit dramatized, which which tends to detract credibility when viewed by an engineer/scientist type person like me,  but the underlying facts don't seem to be false.  Unfortunately, most folks only want to accept truth when it's convenient.  I'd rather be a realist. 

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kemosavvy
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Re: Daily Digest - Dec 23

davos, i read the article and the info was to say the very least, sporadic. a clif notes on the chicago school. my comment on the chicago school was a rip on the supply-side economics that came out of the reagan era. i took a small leap of faith and assumed that supply-side economics was a chicago school policy, maybe i just should've said laffer instead. but my intent was to say that the military industrial complex is a stimulus package but doesn't get wrapped up in anti-free market talk, even though it is government intervention. it pumps government money into our economy and creates jobs and buildings and roads and schools.

 

also, i've listened to the bill sharon podcast 3-4 times already. i'd suggest loading it to your ipod and taking a 50 minute journey. chris' devotion to the subject matter is evident, i only wish he could've taken callers nad that the first ten minutes weren't wasted. my belief is that the last 15 minutes could've been a far superior chapter 20 because it gives a 'where we go from here' and it's motivating. i am now taking action based on those few minutes. it's up to us to take the message to our policy-makers.

Davos's picture
Davos
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Re: Daily Digest - Dec 23

Hello KemoSavy:

Yup, I know it was a rip, maybe I posted the wrong article, but that school has taken a lot of heat on the financial blogs....I'll try to find you the better article, I think I put it on the spreadsheet during my travels. The guy who has the financial blog I recall was there for law shcool...Take care 

 PS Here it is Smile http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/chicago-repudiation/ hope you enjoy it as much as I did, I think I posted the sublink within this before, my apologies

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Re: Daily Digest - Dec 23

Hey Lisa,

The final visual is for the 'campaign for liberty' - a promotion for the Libertarian Party. I believe this short film was made to direct people who are inclined to agree with Schiff to become a follower of Paul. The music, the flashiness, and the dramatization are all characteristics of propaganda films.

I guess I'm not critical of the film because it's a propaganda film, but because it could potentially prey upon people at this site and encourge them to become Paul fanatics. Schiff and Paul both made great points...I feel that the bridge between them is dangerous. One specific point that bothers me is their finger-pointing at the government while neglecting the magnificent flaws inherent in corporate capitalism.

My hope is that people on this site maintain an open mind and not fall in line and start blindly following a few gurus. Be wary of group think.

Davos's picture
Davos
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Re: Daily Digest - Dec 23

Hello DeadMan:

You have great merits on the film.

The final visual is for the 'campaign for liberty' - a promotion for the Libertarian Party. I believe this short film was made to direct people who are inclined to agree with Schiff to become a follower of Paul. The music, the flashiness, and the dramatization are all characteristics of propaganda films.

Having said that I have to point my finger at the government, specifically Congress and the Senate who ignored us, the people at 80:1 or 100:1.

The majority was clearly correct.

The minority clearly failed and is failing us. A $400,000.00 mortgage and no house to sell, no equity.

This wasn't a bailout, it was criminal looting, bribes by lobbyist to our elected officials.

One specific point that bothers me is their finger-pointing at the government while neglecting the magnificent flaws inherent in corporate capitalism.

Yeah the film was cheesy, and propaganda, and YEAH we need to point our fingers at these buffoons and yeah capitalism is flawed when the government stops a dead horse from going to the glue factory by rewarding them with tax payer dollars off a printing press that will create hyperinflation. 

My hope is that people on this site maintain an open mind and not fall in line and start blindly following a few gurus. Be wary of group think.

Eloquent and I totally agree! Group think is like the "Mean Market and the Lizard Brain" book that I just ordered today.

Take care. 

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