Daily Digest

Daily Digest - August 5

Wednesday, August 5, 2009, 9:55 AM
  • Bloggers: The New Financial Media
  • Blogger Setser takes post with National Economic Council
  • Bill Moyers: Wendell Potter (Video, ex - Health Insurance Media Executive)
  • Federal Tax Revenues – Cliff Diving and Data Hiding…(CM Quoted)
  • The Ultimate Suckers's Rally
  • FDIC Report & The Top Secret Plan C (Repost)
  • Residential Real Estate Inventories (Chart from The Big Picture Blog)
  • Residential Real Estate Inventories DOM MOM (Days Months on Market) (Chart from The Big Picture Blog)
  • Residential Real Estate: Shadow Inventory
  • FDIC, $800,000,000.00 Left?
  • Accelerating U.S. bank-failures refute “recovery” hype
  • College Grad Can't Find Job, Wants $$$ Back
  • Please 'Google' "Guard Troops May Be Needed in Troubled Alabama County" (Due to AP restrictions can't post article)
  • Map, Unemployment (BLS) Rate by State
  • Barack Obama vs. Drudge Report (Video on page)

Economy

Bloggers: The New Financial Media

It shouldn’t be surprising that the financial bloggers are increasingly being turned to for financial news. In most cases they are industry insiders, economists or investment managers who annotate their posts with charts and graphs. Who would you rather get your information from? A reporter that might have gone to journalism school, or a professional trader/economist/investment manager? Who can provide the best insights into what is really happening in the market or economy? Who has the best chance of understanding an extremely complex system?

Blogger Setser Takes Post with National Economic Council

Here is an excerpt from Brad's farewell post: All great things have to end

Fundamentally this blog was about an issue – the United States’ trade deficit, the offsetting trade surpluses in other parts of the world and the capital flows that made this sustained “imbalance” possible. Most of my early blog posts argued, in one way or another, that taking on external debt to finance a housing and consumption boom wasn’t the best of ideas. Even if (or especially if) the deficit was financed by governments rather than private markets.

 

Bill Moyers: Wendell Potter (Video, ex - Health Insurance Media Executive)

Federal Tax Revenues – Cliff Diving and Data Hiding…(CM Quoted)

Remember what Chris Martensen called good economic data? You know, data that “is not statistically massaged before release, it is not 'sampled' but rather tallied up in its entirety, and it squares up nicely with other good sources of data.”
Good Data
• Sales tax data
• Income tax data
• Truck tonnage moved
• Port shipping container traffic
• Air transport
• UPS, FedEx, and other major shippers' volume
• Corporate Revenues (just added to list)

Well, here’s the data from the top of the list, the only data the government releases that meets Chris’s “good” criteria.

And how’s it looking? Is it down the .7 or even 5% that comes out of the massaged and adjusted data? NO! It’s down, wait for it, 22% year over year for Federal individual tax receipts and it’s down a horrific 57% for Corporate Income Taxes!

Now that’s a crash of revenue, just when our government is RAMPING spending all while simultaneously spending trillions of your dollars to bail out the central banks and pay bonuses on Wall Street!

What will that mean for our deficits? GAME OVER! The math is simply so far from working that there is NO WAY to keep the game going very much longer. You can ignore it, call it looney Tunes, whatever, the math simply tells the truth and cannot lie.

Federal tax revenues plummeting

AP ENTERPRISE: Plummeting tax revenues starve ...

The Ultimate Suckers's Rally

Incredible.

FDIC Report & The Top Secret Plan C (Repost)

Either way, the GDP release tells us that commercial real estate is on precipice of implosion. Is it any wonder that the U.S. Treasury is secretly working on a preemptive bailout program called Plan C gearing up taxpayers dollars for another toxic mortgage industry that has $3 trillion in loans? The failure of 2008’s residential mortgage bailout should tell you that bailing out CRE loans is a losing cause especially for taxpayers.

The problem for commercial real estate is the shrinking demand from consumers who have now found a new form of forced austerity. With 26,000,000 Americans unemployed or underemployed the demand for armies of strip malls is no longer a pressing issue. Sure, we can offer gimmicks like cash for clunkers but where is this money coming from? Most people realize that conspicuous consumption by consumers, Wall Street, and the government led us here and our solution is more conspicuous consumption?

Residential Real Estate Inventories DOM MOM (Days Months on Market) (Chart from The Big Picture Blog)

Residential Real Estate: Shadow Inventory

FDIC, $800,000,000.00 Left?

but if this is accurate the FDIC is down to $800 million dollars, and a failure of any of the three "seriously in trouble banks" - Colonial, Corus or Guaranty - would blow that tiny little pile of money to Mars.

Accelerating U.S. bank-failures refute “recovery” hype

Five more U.S. banks failed this week, while a separate report warned that a large, Texas-based bank with “negative capital” would be next. With 69 failed banks already this year, bank failures are already on course to exceed the number of failures in 2008 by 400%. However, if they continue accelerating, that increase could easily rise to 500% or 600%.

Meanwhile, despite raising the size of its bribes to take over these failed companies, the FDIC is seeing less bidders step up to bid on these companies. It's “insurance fund” will be nearly completely exhausted when the pending failure of Texas-based Guaranty Bank takes place – forcing it to tap into a $200 billion “line of credit” from the insolvent U.S. Treasury. Does this sound like an economy which is “recovering”?

 College Grad Can't Find Job, Wants $$$ Back

She went to college to boost her chances of finding a great job once she got out of school, but now that that hasn't happened, Trina Thompson wants her money back. Thompson, a graduate of Monroe College, is suing her school for the $70,000 she spent on tuition because she hasn't found solid employment since receiving her bachelor's degree in April, according to a published report.The business-oriented school in the Bronx didn't do enough to help her find a job, Thompson alleges, so she wants a refund. The college says it does plenty for grads.

Please 'Google' "Guard Troops May Be Needed in Troubled Alabama County" (Due to AP restrictions can't post article)

Map, Unemployment (BLS) Rate by State

Barack Obama vs. Drudge Report (Video on page)

 

14 Comments

DavidC's picture
DavidC
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 29 2008
Posts: 243
Re: Daily Digest - August 5

Boy those Goldman Sachs chaps are good. Anyobody good enough with the maths to work out the statistical likelihood of this?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=am7Ds.JhNxvw

And from Karl Denninger's Market Ticker:

http://market-ticker.org/archives/1296-Is-This-Statisitically-Reasonable-GS.html

DavidC

Headless's picture
Headless
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 28 2008
Posts: 363
Re: Googling "National Guard Troops..."

That link is included in a repost of my comment about it yesterday:

Hucklejohn said:

"Specifically, the Fed is desperately trying to hide that many trillions of the government's bailouts have gone to inflating the stock market, buying up the U.S. government's own treasuries, and gaming the currency and gold markets."

 

That all sounds pretty likely. What they better start hiding--post haste--is themselves. When large numbers of people who own guns (188, in this instance) and who have spent years training to use them start to get laid off, it seems there is a fairly high probability that one or more (perhaps, many) of them gets P-O'd enough to exact a little justice. As Gerald Celente says:

"When people have lost everything and they have nothing left to lose, they lose it."

 

Denninger: And So It Begins...

Guard troops may be needed in troubled Ala. county

"Hale may have to cut as many as 188 deputies.... We will certainly be looking at calling out the National Guard."

Google Map directions from The Gun Cellar in Montgomery  to the Eccles Building (Primary home of the Federal Reserve Board)

A large Company--or a small Batallion--of pissed-off, unemployed, warfare trained  men with loaded guns in loaded gun racks, men who come from the South, where tradition is deep and graves are shallow (think trees) are only about 12 hours away by Ford F-150. I wouldn't want to be a member of the Federal Reserve Board for the next few years--or anyone who knows one!

I can hear the whispers of the cowards as they scurry past windows at the Eccles building, trying to minimize the sniper's available "window":

"What the $&^k were we thinking? The South! Who sold those &$*king SIVs to a county in The South? You know it's only twelve *&$king hours up here by Ford F-150!"

 

JAG's picture
JAG
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The Ultimate Suckers Rally

Great find Davos, I enjoyed that one. This point was exceptional IMO:

Now many people fail to realize that the best one day gains and the worst one day gains occur during periods of massive distress, not during bull markets.  Let us take a look at the worst and best 5 days on the Dow:

dow five worst days

dow five best days

It is rather apparent that maximum fluctuation does not mean things are going well.  In fact, four of the five best days in the Dow occurred during the Great Depression and one of the five days occurred during our current massive recession.  The five worst days include three from the Great Depression and the 1987 stock market crash. 

 

Headless's picture
Headless
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 28 2008
Posts: 363
Re: THe Anti-healthcare lobby

Astroturf Along American Highways, and the Repulican Plan

Robert Reich:

"On our drive across America, my son and I have spotted spiffy white vans emblazoned with phrases like "ObamaCare will raise your taxes" and "ObamaCare will put bureaucrats in charge of your health." Just outside Omaha we drove close enough to take a peek at the driver, who looked as dutifully professional as the spanking new van he was driving.

This isn't grass roots. It's Astroturf. The vans carry the logo "Americans for Prosperity," one of the Washington front groups orchestrating the fight against universal health. They're using Congress's August recess to heckle Democratic representatives when they meet with their constituents, stage erszatz local anti-universal health rallies, and fill home-town media with carefully-crafted, market-tested messages demonizing healthcare reform...."

Headless's picture
Headless
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
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Posts: 363
Re: Bloggers, the New Financial Media

The New Financial Media takes a hit!

You Tube Pulls Hundreds of Ron Paul Videos

"...Videos of members of Congress grilling Bernanke and his cohorts about auditing the Fed and finding out where trillions in missing TARP funds has disappeared to just aren’t part of the sanitized and lobotomized video landscape that You Tube wants to portray.

If you post videos about people eating each other’s vomit or clips of plastic bimbos with their breasts hanging out then you’ll be left alone, but God forbid should anyone try to give the country a window on what’s actually happening in Congress and what their own Representatives are talking about – in that case your thought crimes will immediately be censored and removed...."

Desperation and frustration are reaching new levels. I feel like I'm watching a fuse burn its way toward a powder keg.

Brainless's picture
Brainless
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Dec 9 2008
Posts: 150
Re: Daily Digest - August 5

Anyone seen the crazy jump in stockprizes from AIG and CIT. And that just two days before AIG reports their results.

Also there is a rumour that borkers got an order from the SEC to close short positions. (Read that on marketwatch.com)

 

beez123's picture
beez123
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 17 2009
Posts: 40
Re: Daily Digest - August 5

 Thanks for posting that Bill Moyers / Wendell Potter piece. Moyers is one of the last true journalists around. I try and think of one, just one, young journalist with that much integrity and grit and I come up blank. We need more young journalists to step up and fight for truth like Bill Moyers has. Seems too many young journalists just care about furthering careers or getting their hair and wardrobe down pat.

This piece really shines a light on the Health Insurance industry. I wish every American could watch this piece. Sadly, I don't think many Americans really watch Moyers anymore. Most people I know haven't even heard of him. They're too busy watching American Idol and other non-sense.

 

Davos's picture
Davos
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Posts: 3620
Re: Daily Digest - August 5

 Hello Beez123:

That was a good clip. My apologies to Diane95 for forgetting the Hat Tip.

In all honesty I have no idea how to take this bill. I have read it, all 1017 pages. I have read several Cliff Noted versions. Not being an attorney and not following all the bills that went into it I can not be certain of anything.

Personally I find it strange how this guy turned on the industry he support for umpteen years. I felt Moyers should have pushed him harder here. I'm wasn't convinced he is on his own. But I felt the piece needed to go up if nothing else for objectivity.

The Puplava interview still leaves me with more questions than answers. The biggest one is price. Heck, I'd like a lot of thing but I don't want to owe 80+ trillion, and be running a 2 trillion dollar deficit.

Take care

Damnthematrix's picture
Damnthematrix
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 10 2008
Posts: 3998
Re: Daily Digest - August 5
FDIC, $800,000,000.00 Left?
They will have no choice but to print the money to give to FDIC to take the toxic waste off the banks as they crash so they can be sold on to the other banks without sinking them with the debt.
 
This is the US Dollar compared to a basket of six other hard currencies:
 
That's a fall of 3.8% in a month, and it would be worse if the basket didn't include the Pound Sterling. Then one day there will be a big Treasury Bond sale that falls flat and a big rush for the exits.
VeganDB12's picture
VeganDB12
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Posts: 731
Re: Daily Digest - August 5

Davos

I stayed up half the night Monday reading the bill.  I am not an attorney but as a physician I can say in my own uniquely biased way that this is a huge reworking of the entire healthcare system so that the final result is going to be full of unintended consequences.  No question end of life care will be different.  It is the most expensive part of clinical medicine according to what I have been taught through the years. What people overlook is that much teaching goes on in training programs when lots of tests are done on the dying as these are often advanced disease states from which healthcare providers learn.  Sad but true. There are multiple layers of monitoring and surveillance of compliance, implementation costs, educational costs, etc....but how can you calculate the cost I do not know.

In my other life I have publicly supported universal coverage and have thought an extension of a modified (pared down) medicare system made the most sense.  This bill is incredibly broad in scope and seems not to be up for public discussion.    I am profoundly upset by it because if passed my work life will never be the same but that is not an economic concern.  I had no idea the bill would be of such a broad scope and rework the medical educaiton, regulatory, payment and care delivery systems. What a shock.

Wish I could give more relevant insights.  Thank you as always.

Denise

idoctor's picture
idoctor
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
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Posts: 1731
Re: Daily Digest - August 5

ICN Informed Citizen News 08/02/09

 

Peter SChiff 8-5-09

 

1.

 

 

Davos's picture
Davos
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 17 2008
Posts: 3620
Re: Daily Digest - August 5

 Hi Denise:

I feel bad that you read the entire bill - I did the same thing and I was wrecked the next day. Hope you did it out of curiosity and not out of my comment wondering what you and a few other in the field thought of it?

This bill is a shock. I have to be honest, after seeing the price tag, our current economic situation, and the track record for how the government has demonstrated ineptitude in TARP, TALP, PPIP, Social Security, Medicare, and a myriad of other programs I myself have grave concerns. I also do not appreciate the Patriot Act sounding aspects with specific respect to records both personal an other and bank accounts.

Take care.

PS THANKS!

VeganDB12's picture
VeganDB12
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Jul 18 2008
Posts: 731
Re: Daily Digest - August 5

Davos

I read it out of concern and was pretty wiped out by the end but glad I looked at it.  I am a little unsettled by the fact that the admnistration is so intolerant of criticism of the bill.  Yes, shades of the Patriot Act indeed. Also, director of HHS has broad authorities akin to the other Czar types.  Privacy issues are troubling with the e record and the financial reporting required.  I also don't like feeling like I can be bumped from the program if I am too vocal/critical in the public forum (paranoia runs deep I guess).

Regards

D

Davos's picture
Davos
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 17 2008
Posts: 3620
Re: Daily Digest - August 5

Hello Denise:

Whew, makes me feel better. Here is a great read. I'd have felt better if this came from a Democratic Senator who supports the bill, but just the same it raises some fishy questions. Fishy Health care news?

 

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