Daily Digest

Daily Digest - August 14

Friday, August 14, 2009, 10:06 AM
  • Elizabeth Warren "We Have A Real Problem Coming" (Video on page)
  • 4 Trillion Dollar Tax Outlay (Chart)
  • Report: Record Number of California Foreclosures Scheduled For Sale
  • Max Keiser on Unemployment (Video)
  • A Game Better Not Played
  • Monthly Chinese Purchases of US Treasuries (Chart)
  • Jobless Claims Rise "Unexpectedly" to 558,000
  • Jim the Realtor (Video)
  • Distressed now 63% of all sales (Chart)

Economy

Elizabeth Warren "We Have A Real Problem Coming" (Video on page)

4 Trillion Dollar Tax Outlay (Chart)

Report: Record Number of California Foreclosures Scheduled For Sale

The average California foreclosure has a total loan balance of $425,134 on a home that is now worth $236,739.

Max Keiser on Unemployment

A Game Better Not Played

There, we will lean how Bernanke will manipulate the markets going forward… or not. What a game, one that our nation would be a lot better off not playing. Just remember that what Bernanke says and what he does are two different things. The numbers still do not add up for me. I know we now have a lot of smart people looking at auctions but what I’m telling you is that there are false bids from the primary dealers and there are surrogates of the PD’s who are providing false demand for our debt with the Fed’s printed backing. This is a house of cards that is highly likely to come crashing down around Bernake’s head at some point – Ponzi finance ALWAYS eventually does.

I won’t play the analyst game of what he will or should say and how the markets will or should react. That’s losing sight of the big picture. The big picture is that the Fed is manipulating the flow of capital and they are manipulating investor’s expectations. Your government has no right and no business doing so. There’s no doubt that the Fed is under pressure from the Chinese to knock off devaluing their dollar assets, thus I would simply expect the Fed to talk up how they are maintaining their BS strong dollar policy, but behind the scenes they will be covertly destroying it. If they do truly stop the nonsense then the dollar would instantly gain tremendously. Risky trade in here due to their manipulation that’s not worth the risk to anyone’s capital in my opinion.

Monthly Chinese Purchases of US Treasuries (Chart)

Jobless Claims Rise "Unexpectedly" to 558,000

Analysts had expected a smaller decline ...

Jim the Realtor (Video)

Distressed now 63% of all sales (Chart)

RBS uber-bear issues fresh alert on global stock markets

19 Comments

l_metalbone's picture
l_metalbone
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Re: Daily Digest - August 14

the interviewer on the max vid is an idiot...

TtotheA's picture
TtotheA
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Re: Daily Digest - August 14

Colonial, Alabama’s second-largest bank, is being closed by regulators today, the person said, becoming the largest U.S. bank failure of 2009 after an expansion into Florida saddled the lender with more than $1.7 billion in soured real-estate loans.

Source:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=aXsSaA6DJw_4

idoctor's picture
idoctor
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Re: Daily Digest - August 14

Leave it to California.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?play=1&video=1215128998

LogansRun's picture
LogansRun
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Re: Daily Digest - August 14

It amazes me the reactions of the Media/Interviewers to Elizabeth Warrens "Breaking News".  We knew this stuff almost a year ago!  And I love that they allow a member of the CFR ask a question when his group is part of the orchastration of this mess.  Gee, we're going to have "real problems"...shocker!

fujisan's picture
fujisan
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Re: Daily Digest - August 14

Slow Long-Term Growth, And Government's Response

(excerpted from the August 2009 edition of A. Gary Shilling's INSIGHT)

Beyond the current recession, the worst since the 1930s, lies years of slow growth, as we've discussed in pastInsights. The next economic recovery, which will probably start around mid-2010, will likely be so subdued that it may not feel like the recession has ended. And economic growth in the bulk of the next decade will probably be slow -- so slow that it will force the federal government to take continuing actions to prevent high and chronically rising unemployment.

Six Causes of Slow Long-Term Growth

As explored in detail in pastInsights, six forces will promote slow long-term growth in the U.S. and, indeed, on a global basis -- U.S. consumer retrenchment, financial sector deleveraging, weak commodity prices, increased government regulation and involvement in the economy, protectionism and deflation.
...
Financial Deleveraging

...

Furthermore, a great deal of real estate debt must be refinanced soon amidst falling occupancy, rents and sales prices as well as tight credit markets. Estimates are that $155 billion in securitizations are coming due by 2012 and two-thirds won't qualify for refinancing as prices drop 35% to 45% from their 2007 peaks. Meanwhile, $525 billion of commercial mortgages held by banks and thrifts will come due by 2012. About 50% won't qualify for refinancing since they exceed 90% of the underlying property value. Lenders prefer loans of no more than 65%.

My comment: Gary Shilling is a reliable source. He's one of the few who predicted several crisis since the 70s.

rowmat's picture
rowmat
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Re: Elizabeth Warren
LogansRun wrote:

It amazes me the reactions of the Media/Interviewers to Elizabeth Warrens "Breaking News".  We knew this stuff almost a year ago!  And I love that they allow a member of the CFR ask a question when his group is part of the orchastration of this mess.  Gee, we're going to have "real problems"...shocker!

Now that was really, really bizarre.

Why on earth have a CFR member asking Warren a question about this?

Did you hear his reference to a 911 type commission in relation to finding out what went wrong with the economy?

Is he serious?

Do you know what the final conclusion the 911 Commission came to regarding September 11?

The official statement was "... It was a failure of imagination." - That was it. Nothing more!

Oh, and to make matters even worse, nearly all those who failed in their duty over 911 were promoted by the Bush/Cheney administration.

So you can already see where any investigation into the financial crisis will lead... NOWHERE!!

The TARP Congressional Oversight Committee was set up in an attempt to pacify the public outrage that ocurred when Paulson told Congress that he wanted the $700 billion in TARP funds with NO OVERSIGHT.

In reality the TARP Congressional Oversight Committee was nothing more than a publicity stunt and I never believed it was ever going to be given any real teeth to do it's job and in fact it hasn't.

All Warren has been able to do is only report as to the continuing corruption that's taking place on an ongoing basis.

She has no power to do anything of  substance which is why I think she's becoming more frustrated and outspoken as to what is happening.

I think there must be quite a few in Wall Street and on Capitol Hill who wish Warren would quietly slip down a black hole... or a least keep her mouth shut!

If Elizabeth Warren lets too many more 'cats out of the bag' regarding the true seriousness of all these ticking toxic time bombs she may just find something 'ticking' under her own seat!

I'd be quite concerned for her safety.

idoctor's picture
idoctor
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Re: Daily Digest - August 14

Peter Schiff 8-13-09

Wall Street Unspun 8-11-09

Ignignokt's picture
Ignignokt
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Re: Daily Digest - August 14

Does this not make the FDIC fund negative? 

"analyst Chris Marinac of FIG Partners LLC in Atlanta said in a report today that assumes the FDIC will absorb 80 percent of Colonial’s loan losses"

"Montgomery-based Colonial is being shuttered by regulators after an expansion into Florida saddled the lender with more than $1.7 billion in soured real-estate loans."

80% of 1.7 Billion is 1.36 Billion....

As of August 5th the FDIC fund had a balance of 836 Million =.-500 Million.

From Davos's August 5th Daily Digest http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1284-Pump-Monkey-Orgasms.html

8 months into the year and 11 months into the "crisis"...one government program should be considered bankrupt

 

FireJack's picture
FireJack
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Re: Daily Digest - August 14

From Calculated Risk: First Time Home Buyer Frenzy

 

Expect a surge in existing home sales (and some new home sales) over the next few months. Expect prices at the low end to rise (simple supply and demand). Expect all kinds of reports that the bottom has been reached.

Expect the frenzy to end ...

Now the canadian newspapers are spouting how housing prices are going back up here, back to the bubble economy we're saved! All this is just increasing the amount of debt overall, how long can this go on?

Ignignokt's picture
Ignignokt
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Re: Daily Digest - August 14

4 Trillion Dollar Tax Outlay (Chart)

 

Oops, I forgot the FDIC gets to tap into their "line of credit".  But if I read the chart correctly, the credit line is 12.5 billion and now it would be 12 billion (after the FDIC takeover of Colonial).  

12 billion left???  With the wave of regional and local banks looking to get slaughtered in the near future on commercial loans alone! With the growth of residential toxic assets and the bank closures that will create in the near future, this isn't going to end anytime soon. 

A "bank holiday" is looking more and more like a reality to me.

rjs's picture
rjs
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Re: Daily Digest - August 14

jobless claims linked to a retail sales decline article...

Damnthematrix's picture
Damnthematrix
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Re: Daily Digest - August 14

 And from http://www.kitco.com/ind/willie/aug132009.html

FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair believes up to 500 more banks could fail, according to conversations between US senators and Bair from recent meetings. That story received little if any coverage. The real number is 1000 banks, from Bair's own conversations. Little banks are dropping like flies, and we are due for a big bank to fail very soon. No need to guess, since accidents will be random among the crippled edifices. The biggest bailed out banks merely invest in USTreasurys, capturing easy profits from the steep yield curve.

Lastly, prepare for a big surprise. AIG will soon be forced to reveal it is bankrupt again, encountering another painful failure, despite all its falsified reports of revival. It is dead, even after $180 billion in aid. AIG has been busy conducting a shell game to move assets from recently audited subsidiaries to the next subsidiary to be audited, in order to hide its neverending bust played out. It is a veritable Black Hole under the USGovt roof.

For each and every sector of the ailing defunct landscape, one can safely said THAT AINT RECOVERY, FOLKS!! Stimulus, rescue, bailouts, nationalizations, and more USDollar ruination lie directly ahead. Gold will thrive in the coming months, as panic sets in.

idoctor's picture
idoctor
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Re: Daily Digest - August 14

I just don't know but things do not really "feel" right with the way things are going. It seems something is different this time. That energy usage chart Chris put up a few days ago (chart of the day) is haunting me LOL. Seeing videos like this one make me wonder also.

Davos's picture
Davos
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Re: Daily Digest - August 14

Hello iDoctor:

Well, on a positive note: What can they do? Seeing as everything from Social Security, Medicare, Katrina response, TARP, PPIP, Cash for Clunkers, gets messed up I'm confident they will self unwind before they harm too much or too many.

But I agree. My seat of the pants gut feeling is telling me the same.

I suspect with specific respect to the above video's answer: It is perhaps that they got the names/email addresses from emails sent to [email protected]

Flag, how patriotic. Somehow I think, if that is the case it is in stark contrast to the post Nixon era laws put in place to limit abuse of power.

Funny, President Obama, unlike President Bush completed his sentences. Now, watching him push an incoherent, incompressible 1,017 page bill he is starting to sound more and more like Bush when it comes to completed sentences and comprehension.

Farmer Brown's picture
Farmer Brown
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Re: Daily Digest - August 14

 JAG,

This WH is losing credibility big time and displays like this sure don't help.  What "feels" different I would say is that it is blatantly obvious the WH, most of the press, and the financial media are attempting to manipulate the masses.  They've been manipulating the masses for decades now, regardless of party affiliation.  The only difference now is, we can tell.  And that makes it "different" (and freakin' scary). 

JAG's picture
JAG
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Re: Daily Digest - August 14
Farmer Brown wrote:

 JAG,

This WH is losing credibility big time and displays like this sure don't help.  What "feels" different I would say is that it is blatantly obvious the WH, most of the press, and the financial media are attempting to manipulate the masses.  They've been manipulating the masses for decades now, regardless of party affiliation.  The only difference now is, we can tell.  And that makes it "different" (and freakin' scary). 

?

JAG's picture
JAG
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Re: Daily Digest - August 14

 The Latest From Martin Armstrong's world.

Ok, so let me get this straight, the current Armstrong forecast calls for a continuation of the rally to just below Dow 11,000, then a crash into May 2010, and then the market skyrockets to Dow 20,000 in the years following. Not to mention that meanwhile back at the ranch (thats for you Farmer Brown), gold goes ballistic as well. 

Kinda sounds like the old deflation followed by hyperinflation scenario, huh?

(BTW Patrick, please remove that picture of me in your icon, thank you. I'm the cow-ple around here, Quit trying to steal my status!)

fujisan's picture
fujisan
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Re: Daily Digest - August 14

The Field: Toppling a Coup, Part I: Dilemmas for the Honduras Regime

Last Saturday, at a hastily called public meeting in Tegucigalpa, more than one hundred rank and file participants in the Honduran civil resistance and some of its known leaders came out to speak with Ivan Marovich, the Serbian resistance veteran who had been invited by local and national anti-coup organizations to share his experiences.

It was one of three such sessions, and the only public meeting of the three. Almost immediately upon the completion of the screening of the film Bringing Down a Dictator (you can watch it via YouTube in six parts beginning here) about the Serbian movement that toppled the government of Slobodan Misolevic, a wind storm outside brought down a light pole, and with it the electric wires that lit the auditorium.

The Q & A session was thus held in darkness, and yet nobody left. Every attendee stayed for more than an hour with questions and comments to share. The lack of light in the windowless auditorium provided the feel of an underground meeting of the resistance.
...

 

The Field: Toppling a Coup, Part II: The Honduras Regime Is Like an Onion

The Field: Toppling a Coup, Part III: Discipline Solves the Big Problems

The Field: Toppling a Coup, Part IV: The Lost Sheep and the Flock

Jeff Borsuk's picture
Jeff Borsuk
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Re: Daily Digest - August 14

good clips, idoctor!

Thanks!

Jeff

 

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