Daily Digest

Daily Digest 8/13 - Roubini On U.S. Recession Risk, Small Investors Recalibrate After Crash, Where Will Growth Come From?

Saturday, August 13, 2011, 9:40 AM
  • Roubini Says Recession Risk Greater Than 50%
  • The Great Flaw in the Free Trade Theory And Other Vain Beliefs, Hoaxes, and Follies
  • Without Saudi support, President Bashar al-Assad's brutal dictatorship in Syria looks doomed
  • Let's Try Dylan's Way!
  • Small Investors Recalibrate After Market Gyrations
  • Where Will Growth Come From?
  • Shell Fights Spill Near North Sea Oil Platform
  • China's Growing Water Crisis

Our 'What Should I Do?' guide has steps to cook, see & stay warm in times of power outage

Economy

Roubini Says Recession Risk Greater Than 50% (kelvinator)

Roubini: "In the past 2-3 years, we've had a massive redistribution of income from labor to capital, from wages to profits ...households have a marginal propensity to spend that's greater than the marginal propensity of a firm because... firms have a greater propensity to save - Karl Marx had it right: At some point capitalism can destroy itself, because you can't keep shifting income from labor to capital without not having excess-capacity and a lack of aggregate demand. We thought that markets work, and they're not working...I'm putting most of my money in cash...it's better to be safe than sorry...this is not a time to be in risky assets"

The Great Flaw in the Free Trade Theory And Other Vain Beliefs, Hoaxes, and Follies (June C.)

This theory is a universalisation of the idea that the naturally gifted pottery maker, for example, has an inherent talent that can be exploited, and can create and exchange pots for food, let's say, from a farmer who has the advantage of owning suitable farm land and has the talent and tools to exploit it.

Makes common sense does it? Everyone does what they do best, and through the free exchange of products the aggregate good is increased.

Without Saudi support, President Bashar al-Assad's brutal dictatorship in Syria looks doomed (jdargis)

At a time when troops loyal to President Bashar al-Assad are continuing to terrorise protesters, it might seem premature to start compiling the regime’s obituary. Yesterday, government forces were reported to have killed another 18 people in the central city of Homs, while dozens more are said to have died in nearby Hama. In all, an estimated 1,700 anti-government activists have lost their lives in the five months since the protests began, and thousands more have been arrested and tortured.

Let's Try Dylan's Way! (Ilene)

Dylan Ratigan is everything a reporter used to be in the days when integrity mattered. He told CNBC to shove it rather than toe the line and push their snake oil and his show is a breath of fresh air in an otherwise stale media landscape. I love the way he sits there listening to the same political BS as we all do from his panel for 3 minutes and 45 seconds and then literally explodes in RIGHTEOUS anger. I often feel the same way and sometimes explode the same way, but to see a host do it on TV (other than Jon Stewart) is just fantastic - it's what this country needs if we are ever going to save ourselves - complete change in the system.

Small Investors Recalibrate After Market Gyrations (jdargis)

Lin Hersh, a 61-year-old small-business owner in Bearsville, N.Y., about two hours north of New York City, called up her stock broker two weeks ago and gave the order to sell everything.

Where Will Growth Come From? (jdargis)

Even a flood of money moving to developing nations, as investors react to the lack of growth in the industrial world, would create new challenges. It would stoke inflation and asset bubbles in developing economies: annual inflation in Brazil is running at 6.85 percent. And it would push up the value of their currencies, hindering exports.

Environment

Shell Fights Spill Near North Sea Oil Platform (R&J)

Oil giant Royal Dutch Shell has said it is working to stop a leak at one of its North Sea oil platforms.

The leak was found near the Gannet Alpha platform, 180 km (113 miles) from Aberdeen, Scotland. Shell would not say how much oil had been released so far, merely describing it as "not a significant spill" and saying it had largely stemmed the leak.

China's Growing Water Crisis (Jeff B.)

China's leaders have acknowledged the severity of the challenge and have adopted a number of policies to address their growing crisis. However, their efforts have fallen woefully short, as they fail to include the fundamental reforms necessary to turn the situation around. Meanwhile domestic pressures, as well as international concerns, continue to mount.

Article suggestions for the Daily Digest can be sent to [email protected]. All suggestions are filtered by the Daily Digest team and preference is given to those that are in alignment with the message of the Crash Course and the "3 Es."

25 Comments

littlefeatfan's picture
littlefeatfan
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3E weekly summary of Links, Cartoons, and Resources

Posted at http://3es.weebly.com/ with a double dose of cartoons this week. 

littlefeatfan's picture
littlefeatfan
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DEUS X MACHINA's picture
DEUS X MACHINA
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Dylan Ratigan ROCKS!

What? mass media has someone who tells the truth? tells it like it is?  Ratigan ROCKS!  I love this guy.

frobn's picture
frobn
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When nations we dislike have

When nations we dislike have riots we tout the merits of western democracy but when our western powers have riots we have excessive calls for curbing freedom of expression & civil liberties.

How can we have it both ways? I am not for rioting or breaking the law but when TPTB attempt to justify removing our liberties do the rest of just stand and pretend it doesn't effect us, but what else does a nation of hypocrites and sheeple going to do?

mono's picture
mono
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 There is no justification

 There is no justification for the outbreak of violence in England. Unfortunately it leaves one with the suspicion, that something like that is unlikeley to happen in a society, where the chances are split more evenly.

 Crime does´nt pay...as good as lobbyism.

That may very well be the lesson a later society will learn from the period we live in.

sundown's picture
sundown
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There is MORE than JUSTIFICATION!

There is no justification for the outbreak of violence in England? Really? No jobs, no money, freedoms taken away on a daily basis and austerity robbing the world blind. The people are being robbed in broad daylight and the gov/banks are doing the robbing and you say there is no justification for riots? Ever heard that when people lose everything and have nothing else to lose they lose it? Wake up. For what the world governments have done to the people I would say they have gotten off easy with just a few riots. Once again WAKE UP and get your head out of the government a**!

Arthur Robey's picture
Arthur Robey
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Zombie banks and a left brain feast.

"There is something rotten in the Kingdom of Denmark." Nah that wont work,

Rubeni gives his emotionless assesment of the situation. It was a left brain feast. Models galore. Rubeni is good as he admits that his models are not bullet proof.

He did observe that Carl Marxes model was correct, all the wealth goes to capital. eviscerating the market. Capitalism commits sepuku.

Notice the interviewer. He was gesticulating constantly with his right hand. His right hand is controlled by his left hemisphere. That was where all the action was happening. A dead give-away. He was actually making graspinig motions, as though he was trying to grasp the situation and control it.

You wont find any insight in his observations.

mono's picture
mono
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You can see a justification

You can see a justification for "Driving a car purposely into a group of 3 and killing them" ? If that is how you want to bring about political change, thank you very much, I can do very well without !! You´ve gotten completely off track Mr. Sundown. You think we get better world by killing a few people here and there?  I suggest you seriously overhaul your own expectation/perceiption of what the world should be, while I resort to the concept of  " Let ideas die, not people".

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funglestrumpet
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Riots in the U.K.

We have a strange situation in the U.K. We have a prime minister and chancellor who were members of something called the Bullingdon club. This club has a well earned reputation for trashing any restaurant or hall that they use for their meetings. On one occasion recently the restaurant was trashed and all the wine stolen. The club members were given an £80 fine and made to spend the night in a police cell. All put down to high spirits. One of the recent rioters, who only stole a bottle of water, received a 6 month jail sentence.

It is not only wealth that is unevenly divided in the U.K., it is also justice. I recognise that theft is theft, but surely we cannot expect to solve the underlying problems that led to the riots when members of the cabinet are so far removed from the reality that faces so many in the poorer areas of our nation.

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UncleRocco
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Article recommendation

I would guess that the two of you agree that violence that harms or kills humans or needlessly destroys and thereby wastes precious resources, buildings, window glass, etc. is not desirable.I think you're hanging up on the concept of "justification." I just have to recommend this humorous article which makes clear my view:

http://nathanieltapley.com/2011/08/10/an-open-letter-to-david-camerons-parents/

It outlines that the UK government (and, in my opinion, the US govt) are basically imperial kleptocracies, which long ago agreed it was OK to use force to steal resources, and that the people who run things play by a different set of rules than you and I. This is the message from the top. I agree with what Sundown has said, I've lived there: a substantial part of the population of the UK has been excluded from economic life and has their backs against the wall. So don't be too surprised when they have the insight, "hey, there's way more of us than there are cops, and the vast number of people in the middle will just stand there in fear while we smash and grab stuff. Some of them will even join in!" You have to read the article to understand how brazenly the "good MPs" have stolen from the taxpayer to know that they have absolutely no moral basis to stand and wag their fingers now.

"Yes, as through this world I've rambled I've seen lots of funny men,
Some will rob you with a six gun, and some with a fountain pen." Pretty Boy Floyd, Woody Guthrie

Arthur Robey's picture
Arthur Robey
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Just not cricket, old boy.

I have to interject and say that it is possible to live a moral life.

If you pay the price.

Morals are not cheap, nor are they an optional extra.

The loneliest men that I ever met were the District Commissoners in Africa. They lived alone in the wilds overseeing the development of their region and administering the Empires laws. Fraternisation with underlings was "just not cricket, old boy". (It was too easy to use power for immoral gain. And so was forbidden.)

This fashionable cynicism is a symptom of the collapse of Empire and now civilisation itself.

The barbarians are at the gate. And they are us.

frobn's picture
frobn
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mono wrote: You can see a
mono wrote:

You can see a justification for "Driving a car purposely into a group of 3 and killing them" ? If that is how you want to bring about political change, thank you very much, I can do very well without !! You´ve gotten completely off track Mr. Sundown. You think we get better world by killing a few people here and there?  I suggest you seriously overhaul your own expectation/perceiption of what the world should be, while I resort to the concept of  " Let ideas die, not people".

Don't confuse cause and effect with justification.

Study Shows That Austerity Leads to Violence And Instability

It's likely the developed countries including the US are at risk for increased Violence and Instability (justified or not) for many of the same reasons that brought about the "Arab Spring."

 

Vanityfox451's picture
Vanityfox451
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The Real Source of the British Riots ...

Hi All,

Interesting discussion ...

I'm born, bred, and based in the UK.

The short film below from Stefan Molenuex is of an holistic bent, looking at the riots in the UK from a much more rounded perspective than from where the global mainstream media has placed it : -

May I also add: The intelligence of RT for proving the value of recently interviewing Stefan on their network : -

~ VF ~

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Arthur Robey wrote: I have

Arthur Robey wrote:

I have to interject and say that it is possible to live a moral life.

If you pay the price.

Morals are not cheap, nor are they an optional extra.

I agree. Being moral and erhical are luxuries of a stable and just environment. In many parts of the world theft by the poorer classes is part of survival. They don't have the luxury of doing the 'right thing.'

I'm not condoning it I'm simply stating a fact. Would you steal or lie to protect your family? Of course.

 

MarkM's picture
MarkM
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Another perspective

No matter the explanation, the trend is real. I have no doubt we will see it here in the future.

 

"Only the wilfully blind could have been surprised by the scale or ferocity of the riots that have engulfed Britain in the past week. Unfortunately, most of the country’s political and intellectual class have been wilfully blind for years, in a state of the most abject denial; a brief walk in any of our cities should have been enough to tell them all that they needed to know. "

http://www.manhattan-institute.org/html/miarticle.htm?id=7363

mono's picture
mono
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All the arguments I´ve read

All the arguments I´ve read here sofar are all based on the somewhat academic observation that, since the UK are such a socially distorted society, those riots are to be expected. Somehow I can´t help the feeling, that some here also think, therefore they´re also acceptable.

Frobn, you come up with a statistic that shows, there´s gonna be more violence. So this had to happen? Maybe you should discuss the "inevatabil deaths" of the fatal victims of those riots with their bereaved families. Do you think it helps, that according to your beliefs, someone sooner or later had to die and this time it happened to just be their turn? Can´t you see how cynical your chain of thought is?

Maybe you should organize this in advance next time. Go up to some potential victims, preferrably of nonchristian origin and explain to them, someone will have to die, would they be so kind to cooperate. 

 

And Arthur Robey and Johnny Oxygen, so the circumstances of the Empire´s downfall are so overwhelming, that nobody is responsible for his actions anymore? Are you ok? You´re comparing living in London with living in Somalia or what? People are not starving to death in London are they?

If you guys would be up there in Cameron´s shoes, I´m not particularly confident you´d act any different to him. The only difference would be, it´d be your pals up with you, not his, which somehow is the same thing as we see right now.

Vanityfox451's picture
Vanityfox451
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Mono, If I may interject ...

Mono,

If I may interject ...

Society is nolonger structured with the individual in mind. Even in the sacrifice of so many murdered, they are not deemed as a source of mourning, but something of a statistic.

In other words, what is considered a tragedy to you is the correct emphasis. Yet, in the world of Cameron, it is more likely collateral damage.

First and foremost, I do not see Cameron' political world view of "none tragedy" as acceptable, no matter the platitudes he'll publically use to appear otherwise ...

~ VF ~

 

 

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KugsCheese
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DEUS X MACHINA wrote: What?
DEUS X MACHINA wrote:

What? mass media has someone who tells the truth? tells it like it is?  Ratigan ROCKS!  I love this guy.

The whole government is bought: the Executive is a puppet for dark forces, the Judiciary makes rulings based upon backroon deals with dark forces, and Congress is a money w$ore supply the grease for dark forces.

KugsCheese's picture
KugsCheese
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Arthur Robey wrote: I have
Arthur Robey wrote:

I have to interject and say that it is possible to live a moral life.

If you pay the price.

Morals are not cheap, nor are they an optional extra.

The loneliest men that I ever met were the District Commissoners in Africa. They lived alone in the wilds overseeing the development of their region and administering the Empires laws. Fraternisation with underlings was "just not cricket, old boy". (It was too easy to use power for immoral gain. And so was forbidden.)

This fashionable cynicism is a symptom of the collapse of Empire and now civilisation itself.

The barbarians are at the gate. And they are us.

 

"Time shall unfold what plaited cunning hides."   - William Shakespeare, King Lear, 1.1.302
 

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Johnny Oxygen
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And Arthur Robey and Johnny

And Arthur Robey and Johnny Oxygen, so the circumstances of the Empire´s downfall are so overwhelming, that nobody is responsible for his actions anymore? Are you ok? You´re comparing living in London with living in Somalia or what? People are not starving to death in London are they?

Yes, Cameron has to do something and he is charged with keeping order and I think most of the rioters are just opportunistic.

With that said I think the point Arthur and I were making was that the picture is much larger than the current riots. People all over the world are starting to feel the stress and that is manifesting itself in unrest. When push comes to shove, and it always does, people will act in their own best interests. I suppose I'm making a third law of physics observation that for every action there is always an equal and opposite reaction.

 

KugsCheese's picture
KugsCheese
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Johnny Oxygen wrote: Arthur
Johnny Oxygen wrote:

Arthur Robey wrote:

I have to interject and say that it is possible to live a moral life.

If you pay the price.

Morals are not cheap, nor are they an optional extra.

I agree. Being moral and erhical are luxuries of a stable and just environment. In many parts of the world theft by the poorer classes is part of survival. They don't have the luxury of doing the 'right thing.'

I'm not condoning it I'm simply stating a fact. Would you steal or lie to protect your family? Of course.

 

The natural impulse of man is not to wage war but to trade.  Only when a government gets involved to "manage" the news and stoke illogical passions does war come to the fore.

Damnthematrix's picture
Damnthematrix
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All the arguments I´ve read
mono wrote:

All the arguments I´ve read here sofar are all based on the somewhat academic observation that, since the UK are such a socially distorted society, those riots are to be expected. Somehow I can´t help the feeling, that some here also think, therefore they´re also acceptable.

not so much acceptable as inevitable....

mono wrote:

Frobn, you come up with a statistic that shows, there´s gonna be more violence. So this had to happen? Maybe you should discuss the "inevatable deaths" of the fatal victims of those riots with their bereaved families. Do you think it helps, that according to your beliefs, someone sooner or later had to die and this time it happened to just be their turn? Can´t you see how cynical your chain of thought is?.

 

EXACTLY what do you expect to occur in a full on collapse?  Picnics in the park?  LOTS of people will die in the collapse.... BILLIONS in fact.  Yeah, I feel sorry for the families involved, but I'm resigned to it all...

 

mono wrote:

Maybe you should organize this in advance next time. Go up to some potential victims, preferrably of nonchristian origin and explain to them, someone will have to die, would they be so kind to cooperate.

 

You're simply being unrealistic IMHO.  We all die in the end.

 

mono wrote:

And Arthur Robey and Johnny Oxygen, so the circumstances of the Empire´s downfall are so overwhelming, that nobody is responsible for his actions anymore? Are you ok? You´re comparing living in London with living in Somalia or what? People are not starving to death in London are they? If you guys would be up there in Cameron´s shoes, I´m not particularly confident you´d act any different to him. The only difference would be, it´d be your pals up with you, not his, which somehow is the same thing as we see right now.

Well, this is simply a precursor.  Trust me, one day people WILL starve in London, they WILL freeze to death, and they WILL be killed for their shoes or warm clothing.  Somalia is mereley the tip of the iceberg, and anybody (like Cameron) who wants to be in charge when this starts have rocks in their heads.

frobn's picture
frobn
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mono wrote:All the arguments

[quote=mono]All the arguments I´ve read here sofar are all based on the somewhat academic observation that, since the UK are such a socially distorted society, those riots are to be expected. Somehow I can´t help the feeling, that some here also think, therefore they´re also acceptable.[/quote]

You appear to confuse 'expected' with 'acceptable.'

[quote=mono]Frobn, you come up with a statistic that shows, there´s gonna be more violence. So this had to happen? Maybe you should discuss the "inevatabil deaths" of the fatal victims of those riots with their bereaved families. Do you think it helps, that according to your beliefs, someone sooner or later had to die and this time it happened to just be their turn? Can´t you see how cynical your chain of thought is?[/quote]

No. I gave a link to an article showing historical correlations between societal neglect and violence.

[quote=mono]Maybe you should organize this in advance next time. Go up to some potential victims, preferrably of nonchristian origin and explain to them, someone will have to die, would they be so kind to cooperate.[/quote]

If I were as hell bent on killing someone off as you think, which I am not, It would be banksters.

I do not have a crystal ball to consult for where and when there will be violence or who will be effected nor do I believe in the inevitability of violence or that it is justified, just that based on historical correlations we are likely to experience violence in the future.

I do mentor college graduates in leadership positions. In that capacity I am positive about the future without denying known problems we are likely to encounter. Correct me if I am mistaken but isn't that similar to what part of the chash course tries to do. My aim is towards community and the commons more in the sense of Richard Heinberg at Post Carbon Institute than say James Howard Kunstler.

Damnthematrix's picture
Damnthematrix
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on condoning

How do you condone ANYTHING that is going on worldwide at the moment?  How do you condone the pillaging of the economy, the environment, natural resources, wars, the list is so long I don't know where to stop!

Fact of the matter is, the Matris is screwed.  Condoning is not a word we can use anymore.  Like Chris says, "the next 20 years will be nothing like the last".

Mike

playon's picture
playon
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Posts: 9
 Exactly. There is little

 Exactly. There is little to no real opportunity for young people in the UK now.  And it's going to be like that here too, very soon.

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