Daily Digest 4/26 - Our Finite World, U.S. Budget Dilemma, Looking Back On The Limits Of Growth
- Russia Stunned After Japanese Plan to Evacuate 40 Million Revealed
- MF Global: The Untold Story of the Biggest Wall Street Collapse Since Lehman
- Germany Folding? Europe's Insolvent Banks To Get Direct Funding From ESM
- Brussels to relax 3pc fiscal targets as revolt spreads
- The World is Finite, Isn’t It?
- The National Debt and Federal Budget Deficit Deconstructed
- United States Budget Dilemma
- Looking Back on the Limits of Growth
- 22 Warning Signs Of Serious Doom Ahead For Global Financial Markets
- H.L. Mencken Was Right
- Three reasons you Can’t Ignore The Great American Upheaval
- Oil Prices Could Follow Gas Prices Down as Demand Decreases
- Inter-Regional Trade Movements of Petroleum to and from the Middle East: Part 7
- Extracting the Attic Oil From Abqaiq
According to this report, Japanese diplomats have signaled to their Russian counterparts that the returning of the Kuril Islands to Japan is “critical” as they have no other place to resettle so many people that would, in essence, become the largest migration of human beings since the 1930’s when Soviet leader Stalin forced tens of millions to resettle Russia’s far eastern regions.
There are plenty of lessons to be learned from MF Global and heart-pounding policy implications; all of which we can count on Congress to ignore at the behest of the Wall Street money and lobby machine until the next epic financial crisis – an eventuality that is growing more likely each day as Congress refuses to restore the Glass-Steagall Act, the depression era legislation that bars Wall Street securities firms from owning banks holding insured deposits.
"…Which bring us to the story du jour brought by Suddeutsche Zeitung, according to which the ECB and countries that use the euro are working on an initiative to allow cash-strapped banks direct access to funding from the European Stability Mechanism. As a reminder, both Germany and the ECB have been against this kind of direct uncollateralized, unsterilized injections, so this move is likely a precursor to even more pervasive easing by the European central bank, with the only question being how many headlines of denials by Schauble will hit the tape before this plan is approved. And if all eyes are again back on the ECB, does it mean that the recent distraction face by the IMF can now be forgotten, and more importantly, if the ECB is once again prepping to reliquify, just how bad are things again in Europe? And what happens if this time around the plan to fix a solvency problem with more electronic 1s and 0s does not work?"
The European Commission is preparing a major shift in economic strategy, fearing that excessive fiscal tightening will inflict unnecessary damage on a string of eurozone countries.
The World is Finite, Isn’t It? (Ernest W.)
Yesterday I gave a presentation to a group of distinguished business leaders. In my presentation, I tried to show that the global rate of production of petroleum and the associated lease condensate is at an all-time high or a “peak” that at a greatly expanded scale looks like a “plateau.” I used my published, peer-reviewed extensions of King Hubbert’s approach to support my arguments.
Watch Tony Robbins discuss the $15 trillion U.S. national debt -- how big is it really? And what can we do about the enormous federal budget deficit?
United States Budget Dilemma (Phil H.)
Alarming! Washington's dilemma. Soaring debt and a budget congress can't balance! This video will explain WHY.
Looking Back on the Limits of Growth (Ernest W.)
Recent research supports the conclusions of a controversial environmental study released 40 years ago: The world is on track for disaster. So says Australian physicist Graham Turner, who revisited perhaps the most groundbreaking academic work of the 1970s,The Limits to Growth.
#1 According to CNN, the level of selling by insiders at corporations listed on the S&P 500 Index is the highest that it has been in almost a decade. Do those insiders know something that the rest of us do not?
H.L. Mencken Was Right (JimQ)
The corporate / government / banking oligarchy started the fire. The world is burning to the ground and politicians have thrown gasoline onto the fire with passage of debt financed stimulus programs, Obamacare, bank bailouts, the Patriot Act, NDAA, and a myriad of other government “solutions”. To anyone willing to think for just a few minutes, the picture is unambiguous. This requires the ability to think critically – a missing gene among the majority of Americans.
We see this today in the breakdown of faith in both corporate and government institutions (Occupy Wall Street, Tea Party movement), both of which have become top heavy, corrupt, and incapable of reform or even of adapting to changing circumstances.
We also sense this in larger societal issues: obesity; the breakdown of the family; the stratospheric use of antidepressants; crime; unemployment; the lack of community.
Production in the North Sea has been weak, and the EIU reports that exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan region (which account for about 75,000 barrels per day) have halted. In themselves, these disruptions amount to only about 1 million barrels per day, but they largely negate the increased output delivered by Saudi Arabia intended to calm fears of insufficient supply.
Nevertheless, the EIU estimates the market is likely to be in surplus this year and, providing negotiations with Iran proceed if not satisfactorily then at least without drama, oil prices should soften in the second half as weak demand meets ever-rising inventory levels.
The decade long constancy of the Middle East's total petroleum inter-regional exports, however, provides no hint of the large change in the export destinations for this petroleum over the past decade. There has been a large shift in the Middle East's exports away from the Western regions: North America, Europe, South America and Africa, as well as Japan, and, towards the East, specifically China and the remaining Asia Pacific countries. In 2010, about 74 percent of the Middle East's petroleum exports went to the latter two regions, and the trend is for this to increase going forwards.
Extracting the Attic Oil From Abqaiq (Ernest W.)
There is no doubt that Saudi Arabia has considerable oil assets, though I have noted in the past that they tend to use the total discovered oil volume as their reserve, without discounting the amount that they have already produced. Rather, the question that will increasingly arise in the future is whether the country can continue to produce at the same rate, or – if they are to meet the claimed 12.5 mbd of achievable production - to be able to achieve a rate that is 25% higher than current levels. Not that the amount available from some older fields is not of some concern. Consider this plot that came from Aramco in 2004, when Mahmound Abdul Baqi and Nansen Saleri debated Matt Simmons at CSIS. And remember that production has continued from those fields in the eight years since.
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