Daily Digest

Daily Digest 1/21 - States Look for Ways to Declare Bankruptcy, Irish Government Collapses, Mortgage Losses

Friday, January 21, 2011, 12:00 PM
  • NYT Reports States Looking For Ways To File Bankruptcy
  • Irish Government Collapses, Six Cabinet Members Resign, Election March 11
  • The Meredith Whitney Effect In One Big, Beautiful Chart
  • Plans Being Drawn Up To Let States Declare Bankruptcy
  • Bank Of America Posts Billion-Dollar Loss Tied To Mortgages
  • Schlumberger 4Q Profit Rises 31% On Stronger Demand
  • U.S. Firms Seek To Pick Up Pace In China

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Economy

NYT Reports States Looking For Ways To File Bankruptcy (pinecarr)



A few days ago we reported that Newt Gingrich was pushing for legislation to allow states to file for bankruptcy, "allowing Them To Renege On Pension And Benefit Obligations." As we speculated back then "obviously what this means for equity investors in assorted muni investments is that a complete wipe out is becoming a possibility, as Meredith Whitney's prediction, which everyone was quick to mock and ridicule, is about to come back with a vengeance." Sure enough, this most recent development in the states' path to insolvency was quickly ignored as it was not a dipping mushroom cloud that could be bought. Until tonight: the NYT has just rehashed the post in an article that would not only validate the Whitney thesis if true, but make a Cramer-Bove out of everyone who has been caught on tape in the past two weeks kicking and screaming that there is no chance in hell the carnage predicted by the scourge of Citigroup (and yes, back in 2007 everyone said that Citi could never fail either).

Irish Government Collapses, Six Cabinet Members Resign, Election March 11 (pinecarr)



The election was precipitated during a day of turmoil after the small Green party, which has kept Fianna Fail in power, called for a contest in March. Four Fianna Fail ministers, plus a long-time supporter, then announced their resignations. In what is viewed in Dublin as an extraordinary move, Mr Cowen then redistributed their portfolios with some of his remaining ministers taking on extra responsibilities. Mary Hanafin, for example, has become Minister for Trade, Enterprise, Innovation, Tourism, Culture and Sport.

The Meredith Whitney Effect In One Big, Beautiful Chart (pinecarr)



Want to see the Meredith Whitney effect? This chart of muni bond outflows says it all.

Plans Being Drawn Up To Let States Declare Bankruptcy (jeff)



Unlike cities, the states are barred from seeking protection in federal bankruptcy court. Any effort to change that status would have to clear high constitutional hurdles because the states are considered sovereign. But proponents say some states are so burdened that the only feasible way out may be bankruptcy, giving Illinois, for example, the opportunity to do what General Motors did with the federal government’s aid.

Bank Of America Posts Billion-Dollar Loss Tied To Mortgages



The loss was driven by a previously announced writedown of $2 billion related to mortgage business. Excluding the charge, the bank earned 4 cents per diluted share or $756 million. Analysts expected the bank to earn 14 cents per share and bring in $25 billion in revenue. In the fourth quarter of 2009, the bank lost $5.2 billion, or 60 cents per share.

Schlumberger 4Q Profit Rises 31% On Stronger Demand



The company's performance has been boosted by its $11 billion acquisition of Smith International Inc. in August as well as a rush for North American shale oil and gas. Strength in those areas has been offsetting softness in its international and deep-water businesses. Still, major oil companies' increased focus on deep-water projects and exploration may benefit Schlumberger, whose operations are more focused internationally than many of its rivals. Schlumberger reported a profit of $1.04 billion, or 76 cents a share, up from $795 million, or 65 cents a share, a year earlier. Excluding restructuring and merger-related expenses, earnings from continuing operations rose to 85 cents from 67 cents. Revenue soared 58% to $9.07 billion, after dropping 17% a year earlier.

U.S. Firms Seek To Pick Up Pace In China



Hu travels to Chicago on Thursday and returns to China on Friday, following a speech Thursday to U.S. business and political leaders. He met President Barack Obama for a one-on-one meeting as well as a formal state dinner Wednesday. Read story about Hu's speech. Interviewed after Hu’s Thursday speech, members of the U.S. business community said they were pleased by the deepening economic engagement between the two countries but said obstacles remain.

Article suggestions for the Daily Digest can be sent to [email protected]. All suggestions are filtered by the Daily Digest team and preference is given to those that are in alignment with the message of the Crash Course and the "3 Es."

38 Comments

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Old News, But Damn

 

This is old news from 2006, but I bet many of you haven't read it.

6 + 4 = 1 Tenuous Existence
by Sam Quinones
Los Angeles Times, July 6, 2006

"With two teenage daughters at home and triplets still in diapers, Angela Magdaleno's family overflowed from a one-bedroom apartment in South Los Angeles that they strained to afford."
http://articles.latimes.com/2006/jul/28/local/me-quadruplets28

Seriously outrageous and sad. Even the relatives look down on this illegal alien couple with 10 children...

This is an extreme example, but definitely adds to the burden on a government  and society that is carrying tens of millions on welfare, food stamps, Social Security, Medicare, etc.

Poet

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Re: Daily Digest 1/21 - States Look for Ways to Declare ...

Must-read Hansen and Sato paper: We are at a climate tipping point that, once crossed, enables multi-meter sea level rise this century.

NASA’s James Hansen and Makiko Sato explain in a new draft paper, “Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change.”

 

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Re: Daily Digest 1/21 - States Look for Ways to Declare ...

I'm glad I don't have to worry about the so called "globull warming". I'm a earth science major so I know better!

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Climate Change Yes, Human Change No

RJS:

I read the page from the first link. I agree. I think it's serious.

However, here's a must-read article on why the rest of the world won't be convinced to do anything about it. Three very valid reasons that are sad, yet so true, about climate change activism: political naivete being the first amongst them. Described in detail.

The Secret of Herding Cats
by John Michael Greer
http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/2011/01/secret-of-herding-cats.html

I only hope that we don't get anywhere near the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum when temperatures at the poles averaged 50 to 68 degrees Fahrenheit. Life can adapt to changes that take place over a hundred thousand years, but not sudden changes over centuries or millenia.

Poet

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Re: Climate Change Yes, Human Change No
Poet wrote:

RJS:

I read the page from the first link. I agree. I think it's serious.

However, here's a must-read article on why the rest of the world won't be convinced to do anything about it. Three very valid reasons that are sad, yet so true, about climate change activism: political naivete being the first amongst them. Described in detail.

The Secret of Herding Cats
by John Michael Greer
http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/2...

Poet

poet, i agree and am not naively thinking this problem has a solution...i just posted that to warn you all dont be buying any florida real estate…

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Re: Daily Digest 1/21 - States Look for Ways to Declare ...

I was listening to Science Friday on NPR a little while ago.  They had some ocean scientists discussing the various environmental problems in the oceans.  They pointed out that the vast bulk of global warming is occurring in the oceans.  About 97%, if I remember correctly.  Sea levels are rising about an inch a decade, coral reefs are dying, marine animals are migrating into areas they haven't been before and, if the Arctic ice melts sufficiently, there will likely be massive crossovers of species between the Atlantic and Pacific with unknown consequences.

As if there weren't enough to worry about already.Yell

Doug

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Re: Daily Digest 1/21 - States Look for Ways to Declare ...
Doug wrote:

I was listening to Science Friday on NPR a little while ago.  They had some ocean scientists discussing the various environmental problems in the oceans.  They pointed out that the vast bulk of global warming is occurring in the oceans.  About 97%, if I remember correctly.  Sea levels are rising about an inch a decade, coral reefs are dying, marine animals are migrating into areas they haven't been before and, if the Arctic ice melts sufficiently, there will likely be massive crossovers of species between the Atlantic and Pacific with unknown consequences.

Here in Australia, the Pacific (and to be more precise, the Coral Sea) is the warmest it has ever been since measurements have been logged. The result is that the SOI is also the highest it's ever been - 57 - and is the cause of the unprecedented flooding occurring right up and down the Australian Eastern Seaboard from the tropics all the way down to Tasmania......  Flooding like this does occur from time to time, but never in living memory has it covered 3000 miles of one half of the continent......  whilst, I might point out, the western side of the country is suffering from bush fires!

At one stage, in my state alone, an area greater than France and Germany combined was under water....

Doug wrote:

As if there weren't enough to worry about already.Yell

Doug

Indeed.......

Victorians are being warned that a massive moving inland sea is expected to threaten towns in the state's north and north-west for up to 10 more days.

Floodwaters are now heading for the Murray River town of Swan Hill, which is bracing to be hit sometime today.

The peak is expected to last through the weekend.

The state's flood crisis is about to enter its third week and according to authorities it still has a long way to go.

It is estimated the moving inland sea is 90 kilometres long and 40 kilometres wide.

Communities in Victoria's north including BenjeroopMurrabitand Mystic Park are now preparing for major flooding.

Further downstream near the border with New South Wales floodwaters are beginning to rise at Swan Hill.

Mayor Greg Cruickshank hopes levees will prevent major flooding when the Murray River peaks there in the next few days.

"In the actual Swan Hill township itself, we are very confident that the levee system around the town is built to a very high grade and will protect the township," he said.

"We're quite confident the township will be fine and won't be subject to inundation.

"But most of our rural and outlying areas around Lake Boga and Pental Island and the Tyntynder Flats will have significant amount of inundation through them."

At Beulah, on the Yarriambiack Creek, several homes remain at risk and residents were evacuated yesterday morning.

The peak there is expected to last the weekend.

And at Jeparit, on the Wimmera River, SES spokesman Lachlan Quick says up to 20 homes could be flooded.

"The Wimmera River going through Jeparit remains a pretty significant concern for us," he said.

"The community has been notified and protection works have been undertaken."

Bob Spokes, who manages the supermarket at Jeparit, says at the moment his business is safe from floodwaters.

"If it gets up to getting into our supermarket, there will be a lot of other people swimming well and truly," he said.

"Because of the lack of information, for want of a term, it's caused a lot of older people to not really be sure of what's going on and therefore have panic-bought the daily type things like bread and milk."

Meanwhile, the town of Kerang has been isolated by the floodwaters, although the power station which supplies electricity to 50,000 people appears to be safe.

Mary Lou Smith says her dairy farm on the Wandella Creek is completely submerged.

"The worst thing is it comes so quick and you don't believe that it can come so quick," she said.

"When the water came through into our place, it was only two hours. We never know how deep it's going to be; our front paddock has to be at least knee-high all the way through.

"The dairy's gone under and in our big workshop, we never thought that would ever, ever see water - and you walk through it and it's knee height."

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Re: Daily Digest 1/21 - States Look for Ways to Declare ...

"Irish Government Collapsing...."

Pay attention Washington, you're time is coming.

SS

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Re: Daily Digest 1/21 - States Look for Ways to Declare ...

I find it interesting that the "father" of the Golbal warming movement, Al Gore, purchased ocean front property.  The property, IF what he claims is happening, is real...would be under water... makes ya wonder what he "knows".

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Re: Climate Change Yes, Human Change No

rjs and poet said:

RJS:

I read the page from the first link. I agree. I think it's serious.

However, here's a must-read article on why the rest of the world won't be convinced to do anything about it. Three very valid reasons that are sad, yet so true, about climate change activism: political naivete being the first amongst them. Described in detail.

The Secret of Herding Cats
by John Michael Greer
http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/2...

I only hope that we don't get anywhere near the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum when temperatures at the poles averaged 50 to 68 degrees Fahrenheit. Life can adapt to changes that take place over a hundred thousand years, but not sudden changes over centuries or millenia.

Poet

I'm sorry I don't buy this anthropogenic global warming propaganda and fear mongering.

Here's why : First, my brother lives in Minnesota where it gets pretty darn cold 30 & 40 degrees below zero windchill factors that usually comes with -1 to -5 degrees F Yesterday he sent me a photo of his outside thermometer.... -25 degrees and that was without windchill

Second, Russian Icebreakers had to rescue ships in the Okhotsk Sea. The ice was so thick that they were creeping along at walking pace. These are considered some of the best Icebreakers in the world. The Okhotsk Sea is well south of the Artic Circle. Here is a link to that story:http://en.rian.ru/russia/20110111/162101086.html 

Third, I live in the Coastal Range of Oregon just north of the California border. Last year we had temperatures that I haven't seen since the mid 70's for about a week we had single digit temps, 6 degrees being the coldest. I was without running water for 3 weeks. It got so cold in my house that the toilet bowls froze solid. For the last 4 summers the temps hardly reached 100 degrees. Spring has been running into mid to late june. I don't know what planet these guys are living on that is having global warming, but it's not where I live. 

I subscribe to the law of climate cycles. We had been in a warming cycle, we are going into and have been in a cooling cycle for several years now. 

ericg 

P.S. Oh... and this year we had more snow than I've seen in 6 years. It stuck around for 2 weeks. Even in "normal" years snow only stays on the ground for a couple days max !!

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Re: Daily Digest 1/21 - States Look for Ways to Declare ...

Eric,

I like pitched curve balls that hit sideways and make people think. No doubt though, the medium of forum writing is the slimmest and thinnest of interpretation, since inflection, humour, and apparent certainties that people have, get lost somewhat in the static produced by "this is so", "this is not so", and the breach is the ground that is missed in the middle.

Carl Sager was once quoted as saying that if you get a globe and varnish it with a couple of coats, that's the thickness of the atmosphere of planet earth. Now consider that we've burnt up half of the recoverable oil based on present day method in 150 years, allowing the benefit for complex society to provide 17 billion oil slaves; or in another way of looking at this, a hunter gatherer using 240 watts of energy to sustain themselves, compared to a modern day member of a complex society using nearer 11,000 watts of energy, with 300 oil slaves in tow making their complex daily life possible. Equate 311 million people in the United States alone, making up less than 5% of the population of the planet using a quarter of all world resources to maintain their lifestyles, and a stream of colour starts to sit squarely between the parameter's of "yes" and "No", and "Right" and "Wrong".

Change something for me. Instead of stating the term "Global Warming", state "Global Climate Change" instead, that way an opening into the deeper concerns of the planet comes into play, such as the detail in the possibility over the coming years that the United Kingdom could well become a much colder place for months at a time, changing the future prospects of present day flora and fauna in surviving such an ecological jump in such a short time frame if the Greenland pump were to be reduced in its capacity to perform the admirable task it has provided for millennia.

There is another way of looking at this also. Take a look at human population Statistics from 1930. Compare them with the population projection for 2013 and you'll see a jump of three and a half times the original 1930 figure of 2 Billion, to an estimated 7 Billion by 2013. A quarter of that 7 Billion are using the better part of those 17 Billion oil slaves, and yet another quarter of that 7 Billion population are ramping up their lifestyle to match as you read this. No doubt the other side of peak oil is going to be catastrophic, yet China is building one new coal fuelled power station every four days, with China beginning to overtake the atmospheric pollution levels that the United States has been the number one culprit of for more than 2 generations in the main.

Just 83 years to more than triple the population of the planet then, must surely have some human effect on climate?

We can't operate on certainties or absolutes here, yet looking about you in the larger world, do you believe there are all the elements in place to make your children's children's lives a misery in the future?

~ VF ~

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Re: Climate Change Yes, Human Change No
ericg wrote:

P.S. Oh... and this year we had more snow than I've seen in 6 years. It stuck around for 2 weeks. Even in "normal" years snow only stays on the ground for a couple days max !!

Eric, your neck of the woods, my neck of the woods, and VF's neck of the woods were substantially cooler than normal last year, and still are.  And that's it.  The rest of the world was warmer everywhere.  2010 is now officially the warmest on [human] record.  And the wettest.  Which is what you'd expect, because warmer means more evaporation which leads to more rain.

Just look at all that brown stuff on the map below....

Fig 1: Global map

The sea off the Eastern coast of Australia is currently just one degree C warmer than normal.  On average, our daily temps have been 2 to 5 degrees C cooler than normal.  It turns out it's the sea temperature that matters most.  That extra 1 deg C has put 4/5 of my state of QLD underwater, an area bigger than France and Germany combined.  Some places flooded twice, some have remained underwater for two weeks....  all because of ONE DEGREE!  That single degree has caused the Southern Oscillation Index to be the highest it's ever been since they started measuring it....  Basically, we are experiencing tropical weather [monsoons] in the sub tropics... and now even in the temperate zones like Victoria [Australia]

Now of course, Australia is famous for its floods and droughts.  But the severity and widespread nature of this flood is unbelievable... it's going to reduce Australia's GDP by mayb more than 35%.  Our coal exports have been decimated, causing power shortages in China...

Climate Change is here, right now, and it's another nail in the global economy.........  whether you believe it or not.

Mike

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Re: Daily Digest 1/21 - States Look for Ways to Declare ...
Temperature anomalies in North America, 12.10-1.11 
Surface temperature anomalies for the period 17 December 2010 to 15 January 2011 show impressive warmth across the Canadian Arctic. (Image courtesy NOAA/ESRL/PSD Map Room.)
It’s the second chapter of a tale that began a year ago, when Canada as a whole saw the warmest and driest winter in its history.  Much of the blame went to El Niño, which typically produces warmer-than-average weather across Canada.  So far, so good—but similar things are happening this winter, even with a La Niña now at the helm.
Just how mild has it been?  The map at right shows departures from average surface temperatures for the period from December 17, 2010, to January 15, 2011, as calculated by NOAA’s Earth Systems Research Laboratory.  The blue blip along the southeast U.S. coast indicates readings between 3 and 6 °C (5.4–10.8 °F) below average for the 30-day period as a whole. That’s noteworthy—and in fact, it was the coldest December in more than a century of record-keeping across south Florida (see PDF summary). Blue also shows up across the UK, where December averaged 5.2 °C (9.4 °F) below normal.
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Re: Daily Digest 1/21 - States Look for Ways to Declare ...

It looks cooler in Georgia on that map, but ooh what a summer we had------every day for the whole summer over 90 degrees----that is an all time record for us.  Not a single cool day all summer long.

That we had a snow storm in January does not necessarily mean it was colder.  We usually don't have the humidity for snow when it finally is cold enough for it.  It was just barely cold enough to stick.

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Re: Climate Change Yes, Human Change No
ericg wrote:

I'm sorry I don't buy this anthropogenic global warming propaganda and fear mongering.

I'm surprised you haven't invested the time to learn the basics.  "It's cold therefore it must not be happening" has been thoroughly debunked.  Weather patterns do not equal climate.  Yes, you may find periods and areas where it gets colder, but the point to take away from all this is that climate change will cause more severe swings in temperature and precipitation.  This will include cold and snow.  Don't hold your breath wondering if it will stay that way.

Oh, and to wags99 wondering about Al Gore buying beachfront property- these changes are not going to come overnight.  We may not even see it in our lifetimes- his purchase does not expose any contradiction in motive.  This is not about us, it is about future generations. 

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Re: Daily Digest 1/21 - States Look for Ways to Declare ...

The problem I have with the official numbers... we know for a fact the climate researchers were manipulating data to match their model.  NOAA has published information stating they "adjust" the measured temperatures.  What is real?  Without digressing too much off this thread, but followers of CM know the official CPI, unemployment, and other financial numbers are not real, so what makes us think the measured temperature numbers are real?

Personally, I've experienced the last few summers as being colder then I remember growing up.  Winters have gone from being slightly warmer to colder.  This winter has been bitter cold for us.

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Re: Daily Digest 1/21 - States Look for Ways to Declare ...

pehecksel

Quote:

The problem I have with the official numbers... we know for a fact the climate researchers were manipulating data to match their model.  NOAA has published information stating they "adjust" the measured temperatures.

Evidence please.

Quote:

Personally, I've experienced the last few summers as being colder then I remember growing up.  Winters have gone from being slightly warmer to colder.  This winter has been bitter cold for us.

And yet, the oughts have been warmer than any decade on reccord, the 90s were the warmest before that and the 80s were the warmest before that.

Doug

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Re: Daily Digest 1/21 - States Look for Ways to Declare ...

The earth is still evolving. Nature does not live in a vacuum. Even if man were not here this planet would look and act different in hundreds or thousands of years. Only man's ego makes the statement that "we" must be involved in these changes. We will go through seasons that are cooler and some warmer because that is nature. Sorry to bust some bubbles out there but man still does not "control" this planet!

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Re: Daily Digest 1/21 - States Look for Ways to Declare ...

...but I don't know any animnals that make as big a mess...

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You Don't Have To Believe It...
ericg wrote:

I'm sorry I don't buy this anthropogenic global warming propaganda and fear mongering.

The problem with climate change is, that we know humans are dumping carbon and other greenhouse gases pretty fast into the atmosphere. That is like adding a major spice ingredient into a swirling soup, guaranteed to make the climate situation become more chaotic and volatile. More unstable. So yes we'll see some extremes here and there, but the overall trend is toward instability. The warming disrupts flows and causes things no one can predict. Hurricanes will become fiercer. Some are saying that the slowing of the North Atlantic Current could cause Europe, which benefits from that warm current from the Equator, to become colder. But the Equator will become hotter.

Sure, some say: "my neighbor says it's colder than it's ever been" or "I've seen more frost days than ever before."

Instead of global warming, think "global climate instability". That's yet another reason those scientists are losing the PR battle. They picked the wrong term to try to explain it to ordinary people.

The scary part is, by the time the evidence is truly there that even the denialists can't deny, it'll be too late. (Honestly, I don't think the world is going to do anything about it.) I am reminded of the autism controversy between the majority of medical science against a few doctors.

Poet

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Re: Daily Digest 1/21 - States Look for Ways to Declare ...

Thanks to all for trying to convince me of "Climate Change."  I can see there is climate change.  What I don't subscribe to is anthropogenic climate change.  I feel bad for the folks in Australia and elsewhere that are experiencing extreme weather.  I'm sure that no one alive has seen that kind of flooding in that part of Australia.  That doesn't mean it's never happened before. I'm saying that these changes are coming in cycles... normal cycles for the earth, not necessarily for a generation of man or even two or three generations of men.

 Scientist have been wrong before and many at the same time.  Usually it is because they are trying to stay in good standing with the Political power of their time.  In our times if you don't subscribe to the "State" view of "Climate Change" then you have a very difficult time even making your scientific studies, research and meticulous observations known.  Thank God for the Internet, because you can actually read and research opposing views and research on the matter of "Climate Change."

There is something else I find interesting.  If you substitute the word control for sustainable you get a very different understanding of much of the rhetoric on "Climate Change." It really is all about control.  Who is going to control what resource.  Who stands to profit the most from that control.  If you are telling me that Al Gore is doing this all for the good of Mankind you should have your head examined.  He is a profiteer and using fear to make his profits. There are many, many, many more like him. They want Power, Profit, and Control over the lives of free men.

Ericg

  

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Re: Daily Digest 1/21 - States Look for Ways to Declare ...

Doug wrote:

pehecksel

Quote:

 

The problem I have with the official numbers... we know for a fact the climate researchers were manipulating data to match their model.  NOAA has published information stating they "adjust" the measured temperatures.

 

Evidence please.

Quote:

 

Personally, I've experienced the last few summers as being colder then I remember growing up.  Winters have gone from being slightly warmer to colder.  This winter has been bitter cold for us.

 

And yet, the oughts have been warmer than any decade on reccord, the 90s were the warmest before that and the 80s were the warmest before that.

Doug

 

Evidence....  http://www.climateconversation.wordshine.co.nz/docs/awfw/are-we-feeling-warmer-yet.htm

Ericg

P.S. There is much more "Evidence" on the site where this came from. http://www.friendsofscience.org/index.php?id=196   

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Re: You Don't Have To Believe It...

More evidence of natural causes of climate change

http://www.friendsofscience.org/index.php?id=394

Ericg

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Re: Daily Digest 1/21 - States Look for Ways to Declare ...

 

 

Here we go again. Global Warming taking over another thread.

Guys, please read the Forum Guidlines particularly this part:

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The Global Warming debate has been designated by the CM.com staff to be a controversial topic and relegated to that domain. An exception has been made for this particurlar topic. This is the Global Warming playground. The newbies here can be forgiven but the old timers should know better. Please respect the rules.

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Re: Daily Digest 1/21 - States Look for Ways to Declare ...

earthwise wrote:

The Global Warming debate has been designated by the CM.com staff to be a controversial topic and relegated to that domain. An exception has been made for this particurlar topic. This is the Global Warming playground. The newbies here can be forgiven but the old timers should know better. Please respect the rules

Thanks earthwise, I do know better. Normally I flag the Climate Change stuff, but sometimes I get caught up in the arguement, or a particular article rubs me wrong. I'm perfectly happy to debate this in Controversial Topics.

Ericg

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Re: Daily Digest 1/21 - States Look for Ways to Declare ...

Or in the "Global Warming? Is it worth brushing off?" thread.
That's the place to debate it "openly". 

It's got a ton of dialog on the subject, and could always use more.

Cheers,

Aaron

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Re: Daily Digest 1/21 - States Look for Ways to Declare ...
phecksel wrote:

The problem I have with the official numbers... we know for a fact the climate researchers were manipulating data to match their model.  NOAA has published information stating they "adjust" the measured temperatures.  What is real?  Without digressing too much off this thread, but followers of CM know the official CPI, unemployment, and other financial numbers are not real, so what makes us think the measured temperature numbers are real?

Personally, I've experienced the last few summers as being colder then I remember growing up.  Winters have gone from being slightly warmer to colder.  This winter has been bitter cold for us.

I don't dispute that......  anyhow, I couldn't, I'm half way around the world!  What I want to know is, how do your observations compare with the MAPS?

It's way cooler here too......  just like the NOAA map says it should!  I figure, if they get it right for around here, why would they get it wrong for other places?

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Re: Daily Digest 1/21 - States Look for Ways to Declare ...
sundown wrote:

The earth is still evolving. Nature does not live in a vacuum. Even if man were not here this planet would look and act different in hundreds or thousands of years. Only man's ego makes the statement that "we" must be involved in these changes. We will go through seasons that are cooler and some warmer because that is nature. Sorry to bust some bubbles out there but man still does not "control" this planet!

If we had never been here the Earth would be COVERED IN FORESTS!   And THAT my friend would have a HUGE impact on the climate alone, never mind the fact that the CO2 levels would still be around 250ppm..... instead of 390.

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Re: Daily Digest 1/21 - States Look for Ways to Declare ...

damnthematrix wrote:

If we had never been here the Earth would be COVERED IN FORESTS!   And THAT my friend would have a HUGE impact on the climate alone, never mind the fact that the CO2 levels would still be around 250ppm..... instead of 390.

Is 390ppm the official number now ? I'm curious... if you have 390 parts per million CO2, that's what, 39 molecules for every 100,000 molecules ? I want to know exactly how 39 CO2 molecules transfer enough heat to the other 99,961 molecules to create a greenhouse effect ? I can see, maybe 3900 CO2 molecules per 100,000 having some kind of effect, but 39 ? 3900 per 100,000 would be 39,000ppm CO2 level.  When are we gonna get to that level ?

Ericg

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Re: Daily Digest 1/21 - States Look for Ways to Declare ...
ericg wrote:

Is 390ppm the official number now ? I'm curious... if you have 390 parts per million CO2, that's what, 39 molecules for every 100,000 molecules ? I want to know exactly how 39 CO2 molecules transfer enough heat to the other 99,961 molecules to create a greenhouse effect ? I can see, maybe 3900 CO2 molecules per 100,000 having some kind of effect, but 39 ? 3900 per 100,000 would be 39,000ppm CO2 level.  When are we gonna get to that level ?

At that level, we would all be dead from CO2 poisoning... Before babbling like that, please study the science for yourself.

Samuel

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Laying It Out Step By Step

 

ericg wrote:

Is 390ppm the official number now ? I'm curious... if you have 390 parts per million CO2, that's what, 39 molecules for every 100,000 molecules ? I want to know exactly how 39 CO2 molecules transfer enough heat to the other 99,961 molecules to create a greenhouse effect ? I can see, maybe 3900 CO2 molecules per 100,000 having some kind of effect, but 39 ? 3900 per 100,000 would be 39,000ppm CO2 level.  When are we gonna get to that level ?

Ericg

It's funny how even 50 parts per million of hydrogen cyanide is enough to cause immediate danger to the life and health of a human being, and even 35 ppm of carbon monoxide can cause headache and dizziness within 6 to 8 hours.

And people will even accept that just a couple hundred ppm of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is more that enough for ALL plants and trees on Earth to grow. But somehow prolonged exposure of the Earth to 390 (and rising) ppm of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere isn't any cause for concern? Really?!?

Everyone on both sides of the debate can agree that carbon dioxide concentrations go up and down over the course of a year, as vegetated land areas are mostly in the northern hemisphere, and during the northern summer, plants and trees absorb carbon dioxide.

If we can accept the above as true, then we can also accept as true the fact that we human beings have greatly deforested much of Europe and North America, which would lead to less capture of carbon dioxide. Right? Less leaves, less capture! And wood that has gone up in smoke is carbon in the atmosphere.
Indonesia, Amazon, Malaysia, Africa - it's still happening. So there we go, that's enough proof of mankind's influence of carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere.

Next, we know that burning fossil fuels releases massive amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Any high school chemistry student (okay, one with at least an "A") can tell you that. So let's take that as fact, too. Again, more proof of mankind's influence of carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere.

Now we add physics to chemistry and remember that carbon dioxide lets energy from the sun pass through to the earth (energy comes from the sun in a certain wavelengths). The earth reflects some of it back (in different wavelengths), but carbon dioxide absorbs some of this earth-radiated energy. Carbon dioxide is especially sensitive to it - like some people are to criticism of one kind but not another - so it gets into an excited state, and then releases the energy back out. Some of it to outer space, some of it back to earth. The carbon dioxide doesn't just do it once and go away. Oh, no! Like people who like to argue, it does it over and over and over again. So basically it's acting like a light greenhouse "film". And since we got fewer trees, and we're adding more to the atmosphere by burning stuff, the "film" gets a tiny bit thicker every year.

Now, while water vapor has a greater effect on warming of the earth than carbon dioxide does, the cumulative increase in carbon dioxide from a pre-human low of 180 ppm to today's 390 ppm helps increases warming, which helps increase water vapor concentratons in a positive feedback loop. It's small, but the amount of carbon dioxide being added to the atmosphere steadily increases while overall forests continue to be lost (burned or logged) rather than regrown, and more carbon is pumped into the atmosphere, and the warming continues at a slow, but exponential rate. (And we're seeing plankton levels in the oceans - primary bottom-of-the-pyramid food source for fish - dropping, which some say may be related to warming of the oceans.)

And like any exponential rate, as Dr. Martenson will tell you about exponential rates (even if he doesn't talk about climate change), there's a long smooth, linear-like progression until... Yep! Hockey stick. Just like in the Crash Course! The scientists are trying to warn us while the stadium water is still filling and we might still have time. (Personally, I think it's too late. <-- Please read the link to see why.)

Sure, the system is really complex and sure there are other variables in the mix (solar activity, particulate polution, melting glaciers, sulfurous emissions from volcanoes, etc.) But the truth is self-evident that we humans are contributing to climate change (just ilke the hole in the ozone layer) and it's amazing ot me that there are people who think it couldn't possibly be us. Sure, the water may be choppy (big waves = weather volatility), and other hoses might be contributing to the rising volume - but adding more hoses doesn't make sense in this stadium called Earth. And neither is doing nothing about it or pretending it's normal.

Poet

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Re: Daily Digest 1/21 - States Look for Ways to Declare ...

guardia wrote:

At that level, we would all be dead from CO2 poisoning... Before babbling like that, please study the science for yourself.

LOL that was exactly my point Samuel. I have studied the science myself. I just don't use the studies that the IPCC puts out with their cherry picked data to appease their masters in the political realm. IMHO there are more serious matters to worry about, like the poisoning ground water with "Fracking". Like dumping who knows how much dispersant and raw crude oil into the Gulf of Mexico. Fossil fuels are doing much different damage than CO2. The earth has had higher levels of CO2 and we are still here.

Ericg

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Re: Daily Digest 1/21 - States Look for Ways to Declare ...
Quote:

The earth has had higher levels of CO2 and we are still here.

Not in the last 800,000 years.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Co2-temperature-plot.svg

File:Co2-temperature-plot.svg

Co2-temperature-plot.svg(SVG file, nominally 720 × 540 pixels, file size: 225 KB)

This image rendered as PNG in other sizes: 200px, 500px, 1000px, 2000px.

 This really should be taken over to the approved climate change thread:

http://www.peakprosperity.com/forum/global-climate-change-it-worth-brushing/5895?page=83

Doug

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Re: Daily Digest 1/21 - States Look for Ways to Declare ...

Ericg, incredulity is not a great argument. Believe me, that is one I used to use before I looked at the science.

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Re: Daily Digest 1/21 - States Look for Ways to Declare ...

If America stoppped printing money that might save a few trees !!!

 

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