Daily Digest

Daily Digest - July 8

Wednesday, July 8, 2009, 10:44 AM
  • Why Do You Submit To This, America?
  • All you really need to know about CNBC
  • Asset bubble in Asia (Video)
  • David Tice (Videos)
  • California’s Nightmare Will Kill Obamanomics: Kevin Hassett
  • US lurching towards 'debt explosion' with long-term interest rates on course to double
  • Dollar discomfort thrust onstage for Italy summit
  • FSN July 4, 2004 Part 1
  • FSN July 4, 2004 Part 3A
  • WaPo launches internal interview
  • Dropping the Truth on Squawk

Economy

Why Do You Submit To This, America?

ATLANTA (AP) - Colin Daymude was out of work last year after his business failed and eagerly filed his taxes in mid-January, figuring he'd get his refund sooner. He was wrong.

It took the 44-year-old entrepreneur more than six months to get his $1,300 check—money that he needed to pay living expenses while he worked a few side gigs.

All you really need to know about CNBC

Marion maneker reports for slate

Asset bubble in Asia (Video)

David Tice (Videos)

California’s Nightmare Will Kill Obamanomics: Kevin Hassett

The California morass has Democrats in Washington trembling. The reason is simple. If Obama’s health-care plan passes, then we may well end up paying for it with federal slips of paper worth less than California’s. Obama has bet everything on passing health care this year. The publicity surrounding the California debt fiasco almost assures his resounding defeat.

US lurching towards 'debt explosion' with long-term interest rates on course to double

Mr Congdon said the study illustrated the “horrifying” consequences for leading western economies of bailing out their banks and attempting to stimulate markets by cutting taxes and boosting public spending.

Dollar discomfort thrust onstage for Italy summit

Bankers reckon China holds perhaps 70 percent of its $1.95 trillion in official currency reserves in the dollar.

FSN July 4, 2004 Part 1

  • China secretyl divesting? Soros 31 minute mark
  • 7:00 sellers vs buyers
  • 16:00 Chart analysis ****Interesting!
  • Another Stimulus in the works? 19 minutes
  • 3.5 trillion needs to be raised 27:20
  • Currencies 29 minutes

FSN July 4, 2004 Part 3A

  • 32 minutes unemployment
  • 34 minutes unemployment June 2009
  • inflation 40 minutes
  • 45 minutes fed printing
  • 56 minutes jobless recovery oxymoron
  • Mervyn King no money no inflation

And People Question Information in the Blogoshpere: WaPo launches internal interview

Attendees spending at least $25,000 could get an off-the-record meeting with the Post's publisher, editor, health care reporters and Obama administration officials.

Dropping the Truth on Squawk

• Green Shoots was unsubstantiated nonsense;

• Unemployment Rate will rise considerably higher; this will be the “mother of all jobless recoveries.”

• The rise from the 666 lows was the mother of all oversold bounces due to multiple expansion, not profit gains;

• The S&P5009 is likely to have earnings of a modest $50 over the next 4 quarters;

• Unemployment is usually a lagging indicator when we are dealing with an inventory or manufacturing recession; During a credit crisis recession, Unemployment is a coincident indicator cycling back into the economy in a negative way;

• We are going through a massive consumer deleveraging

• The Consumer is not going to save the economy anytime soon.

Link to video

16 Comments

dps's picture
dps
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Peak Oil Day: 7/11/2008

Check this out.  It's a short article.

 

http://www.energybulletin.net/node/49493

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NLP
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Re: Peak Oil Day: 7/11/2008

Thanks for posting dps. 

My family and I will commorate Peak Oil Day this Saturday by spending the energy inside our bodies doing outside chores.  We will replenish our energy with a diet of raw foods grown within 10 miles of our home and drink clean tap water.  We will read, have conversation, play board games, shoot hoops in the backyard until it is too dark to see and use as little electricity as possible.  Our cars will stay parked.   Who knows? We might enjoy spending the day this way so much that we choose to do it more than just once.

idoctor's picture
idoctor
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Re: Daily Digest - July 8

I cicked on the link All you really need to know about CNBC & there is nothing there LOL...pretty funny Davos

One guy I do like on CNBC is Art Cashin. At least he is not a bought & paid for MSM cheerleader IMO LOL.

Every now & then even a blind squirrel can find an acorn.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/31799792

Peter Schiff 7-7-09

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Davos
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Re: Daily Digest - July 8

Amazing comparisson of facts vs fiction. And friends still ask me if I trust the blogoshpere. Oooooookay.

698,000 jobs lost in June. We are looking at 3,000,000 NOT counting January.

I highly advocate reading this white paper. If you are pressed for time squelch the noise by starting at page 7.

The video mentioned within is here

Joe Saluzzi (Video, 3:40 Fictitious Trading, Program Trades, 8:20 the M-word, H/T David C)

Take care

 

 

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Davos
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Re: Daily Digest - July 8

 3. Monsanto loses again: GE alfalfa banned nationwide

A federal court has upheld a ban on the planting of Monsanto's genetically engineered (GE) alfalfa in the United States. The Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit reaffirmed its previous ruling that the alfalfa, which is engineered to tolerate the herbicide Roundup, could contaminate conventional and organic alfalfa and thus cause "irreversible harm" to the farmers whose livelihoods depend on these crops and to the environment. In the original lawsuit, the Center for Food Safety, other nonprofit organizations, and two alfalfa seed producers sued the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) for approving GE alfalfa without preparing an environmental impact statement (EIS) as required by federal law. After the district court issued its original ruling in 2008 to ban the alfalfa, Monsanto and another biotechnology company appealed the ban, but their appeal was denied in this final ruling. The ban will remain in place until the USDA completes the EIS. Read more from Reuters, or read the decision (pdf).

 

 

http://www.foodincmovie.com/

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Damnthematrix
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Re: Daily Digest - July 8

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/calls-grow-to-supplant-dollar-as-global-currency/article1207242/

Calls grow to supplant dollar as global currency

Karim Bardeesy

The call to find an alternative to the U.S dollar as the global reserve currency is gaining momentum as France joined calls by China, India and Russia for a review of the world's currency practices.

French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde challenged the dollar's supremacy “in a world that has changed because of the crisis and the growing role of emerging countries.”

<MORE>

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Damnthematrix
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Re: Daily Digest - July 8
Delinquencies on U.S. Home-Equity Loans Reach Record
 

By Margaret Chadbourn

July 7 (Bloomberg) -- Late payments on home-equity loans rose to a record in the first quarter as 18 straight months of job losses and a slumping economy left more borrowers unable to pay their debts, the American Bankers Association reported.

Delinquencies on home-equity loans climbed to 3.52 percent of all accounts from 3.03 percent in the fourth quarter, and late payments on home-equity lines of credit climbed to a record 1.89 percent, the group reported today. An index of eight types of loans rose for a fourth straight quarter, to 3.23 percent from 3.22 percent in October through December, the group said.

“The number one driver of delinquencies is job losses, which we’ve seen build and build,” James Chessen, the group’s chief economist, said in a telephone interview. “Delinquencies won’t come down without a dramatic improvement in the economy and businesses will have to start hiring again.”

The U.S. economy lost an average 691,000 jobs a month in the quarter, and more than 6.5 million positions have been shed since the recession began in December 2007. The economy this year will shrink the most since 1946, according to a Bloomberg survey of 61 economists last month. President Barack Obama predicted last month unemployment will reach 10 percent this year. The rate was at a 26-year high of 9.5 percent in June.

Delinquent bank-card accounts jumped to a record 6.60 percent of outstanding card debt in the first quarter from 5.52 percent in the previous period, a signal unemployed borrowers are relying on cards as falling prices erode the equity in their homes. More borrowers are using cards to meet daily expenses after losing their jobs, the ABA said.

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Damnthematrix
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Re: Daily Digest - July 8

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090706/bs_nm/us_economy_california

As California struggles, Fitch cuts debt rating

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) – California suffered a new setback in its financial crisis on Monday when Fitch Ratings cut its rating on the state's general obligation debt to just two notches above junk status.

Fitch cut its rating on California's long-term bonds to "BBB," two notches above speculative grade, citing the state's budget and cash crisis. The state last week started issuing "IOU" promissory notes to pay for some bills in order to conserve cash.

The credit rating agency also kept the debt of the most populous U.S. state on watch for additional downgrades. California ranks as the lowest-rated state general obligation credit by Fitch, followed by Louisiana, at "A+."

Tom Dresslar, a spokesman for State Treasurer Bill Lockyer, said the other two main credit rating agencies, Standard & Poor's and Moody's Investors Service, could soon follow Fitch's example. "I'm sure their patience is not deep," he said.

Lower ratings threaten to raise California's borrowing costs during a severe cash crunch in Sacramento, the state capital, one of Fitch's top concerns.

"The folks who are going to end up paying the price are not investors, not the governor, not the legislature, but the taxpayers," Dresslar said.

Damnthematrix's picture
Damnthematrix
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Re: Daily Digest - July 8

Sleeping out: More families losing homes

By Jennifer Macey for AM

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/07/09/2620935.htm?section=justin

The number of Australian families sleeping in cars, on couches or in motels jumped significantly in the latest Census data, but homelessness charities have warned that the figures are already out of date.

The Counting the Homeless report is published today by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare.

It shows a 17 per cent increase in the number of homeless families between 2001 and 2006.

But charities in western Sydney say those numbers are already out of date because of the effects of the global financial crisis.

Housing Minister Tanya Plibersek says anecdotal evidence indicates homelessness is still a growing problem.

"Certainly from what the charities are telling us, demand has increased," she said.

"We are not able to know exactly how much that demand has increased because we don't have this detailed census data available to us."

Nightime temperatures in Sydney's western suburbs are expected to drop to four degrees Celsius but Steve and Doris don't know where they and their three toddlers will be sleeping.

"Tomorrow we don't know where we're going to be. And you look at your kids and then they ask you where are we going? Where we going mum? Where we going to dad?" said Doris.

For the past week, the state's housing department has put the family up in a caravan park in western Sydney.

Steve says they have been homeless for about 10 months.

"Our house was sold from us, we were renting the house, and we moved in with family, and we couldn't stay with them, so we moved out and stayed in cars and so forth," he said.

"We were in cars sometimes three nights in a row, sometimes we were in there for longer. But there's times where, you know, through generosity of friends and so forth, they'd let us stay at their place for one night or two."

Doris says she tried to get into refuges but couldn't find anywhere that would take the whole family.

"They turned around and said to us, 'We can take you in, only you and your children, but we won't take your husband'. That was really devastating," she said.

Every day for the past few months Doris and Steve have been applying for rental properties in Sydney's western suburbs but with no luck.

Although Steve recently lost his job, he says their rental history is excellent.

"Over the last three to four months we've put in well over 60 to 80 applications, and each application comes back the same response, which is declined, and most of the times they'll just tell us that it's due to landlord picking someone else instead of us," he said.

Getting worse

The latest analysis of the 2006 Census shows a sharp rise in the number of older single people and families who are homeless.

Associate Professor David Mackenzie from Swinburne University is a co-author of the Counting the Homeless report.

He says there's been a 17 per cent increase in homeless families between 2001 and 2006.

"There's been an increase in family homelessness, and what we need in place is an intervention that will keep families in their accommodation before they become homeless," he said.

"And of course a family is not just one person; it's an adult and several children, so the effect on numbers of homeless people will be quite dramatic over a number of years."

But charities say the problem is already much worse.

Nepean Campaign Against Homelessness convenor Stephanie Brennan says there's been a huge surge in demand for services, with the global financial crisis particularly affecting families.

"We have a high degree of families that own homes who are losing their jobs or who are living very close to mortgage stress or mortgage crisis situations, who are actually losing their homes," she said.

"They have no support and they end up homeless in a matter of weeks. There's a failure in the private rental market.

"There's a failure in the housing market and these families are often in cars, in tents, couch surfing, or in other inappropriate accommodation; caravan parks etc."

Steve and Doris find out today whether they can extend their stay at the caravan park.

Steve says he never thought his family would end up in this situation.

"No we're not living under a box, no we're not without clothing or shoes or whatever, but does that make us any less homeless?" he said.

"This could happen to anybody else in Australia at any stage and people don't realise that."

idoctor's picture
idoctor
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Re: Daily Digest - July 8

This Aussie is always entertaining.

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fujisan
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Re: Daily Digest - July 8

 Slam | Secrets Of Traders

July 8, 2009

Larry Levin’s Nightly Newsletter & Trading Signals

...

That MOB level was right on the money as the S&P500 eventually plummeted nearly 20-handles to trade 875.00. Our overall critical level was 875.00 (as mentioned in Notes from the Pit) to 873.00 mentioned above. Keep an eye on 873.00 tomorrow, especially early. If the market gaps open far below this level, we could see the market attempt a rally. At that point sellers may take profits while bargain hunters pile in, but you should follow the trend no matter what happens.

As the market dropped below 882.00, it became more volatile. In fact, as called by our auctioneer service (Paul specifically) of PitNoise.com, things got a little wild. Near 882.00 a large order came into the pit to buy 400 contracts, which has a notional value of $100-million! At first these contracts were not taken out by the locals in the pit and Paul even told us locals began bidding in front of this large order. This helped spark some short covering and the market bounced 6-handles.

The S&P began its next slide, trading back down to that 400-lot buy order and the locals took it out, thus slamming the market to new lows on huge volume. Longs were liquidating and floor traders pressed the trade lower. The Obama news of endless profligate spending wasn’t helping matters at all.

When the market finally reached our 875.00/873.00 MOB level, it got crazier. Paul called another 400-lot order, and another, and another…and yet another. The final order was never filled. What happened? The locals in the pit who trade their own accounts got the picture: whoever was buying was not going to stop. The market finally popped somewhat going into the close.

Overall, our PitNoise feed gave us a heads-up warning that someone was endeavoring to buy nearly $500,000,000.00 of S&P futures. Thanks Paul! If you would like to know more about this, please visit www.pitnoise.com for the information and a trial. There is a recording of an open on the site that you will find interesting as well as this link on YouTube

The unfilled 400-lot order, the market’s month long malaise, insane government spending news, and the S&P reaching a clearly important MOB level should make tomorrow morning’s open very interesting. Will you hear it?

...

 

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Re: Daily Digest - July 8

Goldman May Lose Millions From Ex-Worker’s Code Theft (Update3) - Bloomberg.com

At a court appearance July 4 in Manhattan, Assistant U.S. Attorney Joseph Facciponti told a federal judge that Aleynikov’s alleged theft -- the largest breach at Goldman Sachs -- poses a risk to U.S. markets.

“The bank has raised the possibility that there is a danger that somebody who knew how to use this program could use it to manipulate markets in unfair ways,” Facciponti said, according to a recording of the hearing made public yesterday.

Hum ... it is "fair" for "some bank" to manipulate markets?

Notice the date at the court. They sure have prefered to be at home on July 4th.

 

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Davos
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Re: Daily Digest - July 8

 Hello Fujisan:

Have you read about the guy in France? Jean-Pierre and his glider accident. CFM was wired into the NYSE platform.

It is too out there to post but like Baxter and thier oops with H5N1 it is if nothing else quite a wierd coincidence.

Take care

idoctor's picture
idoctor
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Re: Daily Digest - July 8

Jean-Pierre and his glider accident

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124688745315700567.html#articleTabs%3Dcomments

fujisan's picture
fujisan
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Posts: 296
Re: Daily Digest - July 8

 BBC NEWS | Business | Chinese bond auction falls short

 

China's finance ministry has failed to sell all 28bn yuan ($4.1bn; £2.55bn) of one-year government bonds it offered at an auction.

It is the first under-subscribed government bond auction since 2003.

The ministry sold a total of 27.52 billion yuan of the bonds, which offered a yield to investors of 1.06%.

...

 


fait diversIls se sont écrasés hier en fin de matinée : Tués à bord de leur planeur

Michel Fache et Jean-Pierre Aguilar ont trouvé la mort, hier dans le crash de leur planeur, en fin de matinée. Les deux hommes âgés respectivement de 66 et 49 ans participaient à l'Open CFM, une compétition de planeur longue distance en montagne, qui entrait hier dans sa dernière journée.

Des pilotes expérimentés

Le premier n'est autre que le président du Centre de vol à voile de l'Ubaye, basé à Saint-Pons, à côté de Barcelonnette. Des fonctions qu'il occupait depuis maintenant quatre ans. Le second le représentant du Capital Fund Management (CFM), sponsor de la manifestation. Les deux hommes étaient des pilotes avertis. Michel Fabre comptait 6000 heures de vol ; Jean-Pierre Aguilar 2000.

Michel Fache and Jean-Pierre Aguilar were killed yesterday in the crash of the glider in the late morning. The two men aged 66 and 49 years participated in the Open CFM, glider competition in long distance mountain, which fell yesterday in his last day.

Experienced pilots

The first is none other than the president of the Center for Glider Ubaye, based in Saint-Pons, alongside Barcelonnette. The functions he held for four years now. The second representative of the Capital Fund Management (CFM), sponsor of the event. Both men were pilots warned. Michel Fabre had 6000 flying hours, Jean-Pierre Aguilar 2000.

Looks like a "real" accident. No other info.

Wouldn't be surprised if Aleynikov has "some accident", thought.

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fujisan
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Re: Daily Digest - July 8

Morgan Stanley - Perspectives


Asia Chairman Gives Prestigious del Pino Lecture on 'Post-Crisis Policy Imperatives'

July 06, 2009 

Stephen Roach 

"A break from the broken policies and macro strategies of the past is an urgent imperative," urges Asia Chairman Stephen Roach in "Leadership Imperatives for a Post-Crisis World." The piece was the basis for a lecture Roach gave at the Rafael del Pino Foundation on June 22 in Madrid - a prestigious platform previously reserved for Nobel prize winners, senior policy makers and heads of state.

 

Looking ahead, Roach sees the macro environment over the next several years as likely to be characterized by a "persistent fragility, punctuated by periodic setbacks."

Roach argues that politicians and policy makers must go beyond recent proposals for micro regulatory reform and revamp the macro framework that led to a "lethal interplay between asset bubbles and global imbalances." He calls for a rethinking of the central banking function as a critical element of the post-crisis policy architecture.

As such, Roach says he concurs with recent proposals that monetary authorities be empowered as "systemic risk regulators," but with the added stipulation that "with that new power must come greater accountability in the form of a new financial stability mandate."

Roach closes by exploring several other policy options and asking what he terms the biggest question of all: "Does the body politic have the vision and the courage to look beyond the short term and make tough choices that could provide a lasting cure for a crisis-torn world?"

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