Daily Digest

Daily Digest - July 1

Wednesday, July 1, 2009, 10:44 AM
  • 60,000 Deaths, and the Story of Dendreon (Chapter 1 of 15)
  • Euro-Zone New Orders Plunge (Chart)
  • The Cap and Tax Fiction
  • Friday Massacre: (Week 18) Bank Seizures 41-45 ($1,004,000,000.00)
  • Wave #2 (Chart of Alt A's and Option Arms Coming Due)
  • Counterpoint to the 'Green Shoots' Spin
  • More Americans picking up work on farms (H/T DPS)
  • Why "Jobless Recovery" is an oxymoron (Chart Delinquency Rate)
  • States brace for shutdowns
  • Debasing the Currency is Leading to Financial Collapse . . . Just As It Has for Thousands of Years
  • What currency are they purchasing commodities with? (Video, Soros)

Economy

60,000 Deaths, and the Story of Dendreon (Chapter 1 of 15)

For some months Mark Mitchell has been working on his next piece. It has grown into something massive, about the length of The Story of Deep Capture. It concerns Dendreon. I read it for the first time a few days ago. It is semi-infuriating. Deep Capture is going to serialize it. The first piece will be going up within hours.

Normally we encourage people to quote any DeepCapture piece in full anywhere on the Internet. This time, however, I would appreciate it if people would show Mark Mitchell a little courtesy by not quoting his piece in full. Fair Use, and all that. If you like what you read, try to drive others to DeepCapture to read it. Mark has gone way down the rabbit hole, and I think it only fair to thank him by showing him this respect.

Euro-Zone New Orders Plunge (Chart)

The Cap and Tax Fiction

When the Heritage Foundation did its analysis of Waxman-Markey, it broadly compared the economy with and without the carbon tax. Under this more comprehensive scenario, it found Waxman-Markey would cost the economy $161 billion in 2020, which is $1,870 for a family of four. As the bill's restrictions kick in, that number rises to $6,800 for a family of four by 2035.

Friday Massacre: Bank Seizures 41-45 ($1,004,000,000.00)

“Five U.S. banks with total assets of about $1.04 billion were seized by regulators, pushing this year’s tally of failures to 45 as a recession drives up unemployment and home foreclosures.

Wave #2 (Chart of Alt A's and Option Arms Coming Due)

Alt-A and Option ARM Economic Disaster Update: California Solution? Workout 3,430 Alt-A loans in March. Good Job. All we have is an additional 643,000 Alt-A Loans in the State. At this Rate it will take us 15 years to Modify or Alter all Alt-A Loans

That is why when people ask me, “should I buy now in a semi-prime location?” I can only shake my head. Why buy now? The largest X-factor is looming less than a year away and you want to jump in to swim with the sharks? What I have realized is psychologically, many people still believe in the bubble. When I created the title of this blog, Dr. Housing Bubble - How I Learned to Love SoCal and Forget the Housing Bubble I was word playing with an old Stanley Kubrick film.

Dilbert, Buy Now or Wait? (Cartoon)

Counterpoint to the 'Green Shoots' Spin

The Flopeye Cafe in Great Falls, South Carolina has at least a dozen forms of fried on its menu. I order two: breaded squash with tater tots. The server chuckles as I bemoan my lack of restraint. Laughter comes easy for Rebecca Polston, as do the tears after she sits down to talk to me.

The 30-year-old South Carolina native has never had an easy life. Over the past year, the recession consumed what little material comfort and financial stability she did enjoy.

Her husband Charles lost his job as a heavy machine operator last summer after the slowing real estate market put the brakes on new construction. The couple spent a few fruitless months job hunting near their home in the Charlotte, NC metropolitan-area before accepting that they would need to make some major changes if they were to survive the recession.

Charles's family in Great Falls--a hardscrabble town of 2,000 about an hour south of Charlotte--found a 4-bedroom house renting for $325 a month--$200 less than the Polston's were paying in Rock Hill. So just before Thanksgiving, Rebecca packed up their life in the city and moved to the country with her husband, three young children, and the 23-year-old brother she has cared for most of his life.

"We thought coming down here close to family we could pool our resources. Live close together. Help each other out. Make it a little easier for everyone. We did what we thought was best to survive and get through this recession," she says.

Country living is less expensive, and having a local support network of family does help. A niece helps take care of the kids, and an aunt loaned her a car when hers developed a problem too expensive to repair right now. With an unemployment rate of 21.8% in their new home county of Chester, however, the move has not proven a panacea for their problems.

More Americans picking up work on farms (H/T DPS)

Farmers can use what's called the H-2A program to recruit foreign workers to do temporary or seasonal work here in the U.S.

From July to September of 2008, there were 171 H2-A jobs posted. Thirty-nine Americans applied for those positions.

The very next quarter, in the final three months of 2008, 887 Americans applied for the 981 H-2A available. And as unemployment jumped at the beginning of 2009, so did applications from Americans; 1,799 applied for 726 jobs. That means instead of the jobs being filled by foreign or migrant workers, they are mostly going to U.S. residents.

"A lot of the American workers are now applying for farm jobs that maybe they may not have applied for in the past," said Olga Ruiz, state monitor advocate with the Colorado Department of Labor and Employment. "People who started out in agriculture or even field labor who got out of that field maybe went into construction or other types of work, who maybe got laid off for whatever reason, decided they wanted to go back to farm work, because it's a paycheck and they need it."

Condon posted two farm hand positions on Craigslist in April. He said he had to turn people away. Thirty-eight people applied.

"We had people with doctorates, we had people with masters degrees we had people with all sorts of different career backgrounds," he said. "Carpenters, people who've worked on farms in other countries, people who have managed museums, all sorts of things you would never suspect you would find on a farm labor application."

Why "Jobless Recovery" is an oxymoron (Chart Delinquency Rate)

States brace for shutdowns

Reporting from Indianapolis and Denver -- The last time Indiana missed its deadline for passing a budget and had to shut down the government was during the Civil War.

But on Monday, as lawmakers raced to hammer out an agreement over school funding, state agencies began preparing 31,000 workers to be temporarily out of a job. Republican Gov. Mitch Daniels has warned residents that most of the state's services -- including its parks, the Bureau of Motor Vehicles and state-regulated casinos -- would be shuttered unless a budget is passed today.

Indiana is one of five states -- along with Arizona, California, Mississippi and Pennsylvania -- bracing for possible shutdowns this week as time runs out for lawmakers to close billion-dollar gaps in their fiscal 2010 budgets.

Of the 46 states whose fiscal year ends today, 32 did not have budgets passed and approved by their governors as of Monday afternoon, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.

Debasing the Currency is Leading to Financial Collapse . . . Just As It Has for Thousands of Years

In a fascinating 22-page study [haven't read it yet, skimmed it, looks good] of money and currency, Christopher Weber shows that every government - from Athens, to pre-collapse Rome, to the Islamic countries in the Middle Ages - which stuck to the Greek standard of coins has been stable and prosperous.

Specifically, the Athenian Drachma contained 65.6 grains of silver. Even after Greece declined as a superpower, its currency remained stable.

The Roman Denarius, Byzantine Bezant, and Islamic Dinar all copied the Drachma, using around 65.6 grains of gold or silver in their coins.

What currency are they purchasing commodities with? (Video, Soros)

18 Comments

jpitre's picture
jpitre
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Re: Daily Digest - July 1

60,000 Deaths, and the Story of Dendreon

Anybody want to tell me how great a so-called "investment" in a Wall Street stock is? It is an insider's racket -- most of the activity is a confidence scheme to suck money from the unsuspecting, and the rest is made up of con artists trying to out-con the system. If anyone wants to throw money away, Las Vegas is as good a bet unless you are on the inside -- at least you know the odds.

I haven't owned a stock for over 35 years except for a piddling IRA account that has been "Professionally" managed for over 20 years that is worth less in actual dollars that it was worth in 1990 (no allowance for inflation either). I've kept it just to remind myself how crooked the system really is.

The time has come for a complete overhaul -- put the worst of them in jail and send the rest back to the farm to do a real days work.

I know that's a bad attitude, but that is the way I feel. For those who are in the market system trying to do it right, I wish you well and hope you can help turn it around to benefit the country instead fo the chosen few.

Jim Pitre

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alcatwize
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Re: Daily Digest - July 1

 No, it's not a bad attitude.  It's the truth.  I am also a stock market sucker.  To be successful in the stock market, someone else has to lose.  It's a zero net gain really.  Wall Street and the banking industry are lost productivity.  It produces nothing.  It does nothing to advance science, medicine or even exploration.  It's a complete waste of our time.  Just think of all the educated workers devoted to creating fancy derivatives and betting on the success/failures of others.  Take that talent and apply it to medicine or energy and just think of where we could be.  

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Re: Daily Digest - July 1

Jim,

I understand the way you feel, but the trend is not to put the worst in jail, they are on the way to win the game, the tax payer money trown to safe them will have to be paid back with your $  taxes and if you don't pay your taxes you will go to jail :(

Normal citizen will be presurized more and more and that probably for one generation until a new generation invent a new american revolution.
In history when a population feel they are presurized too much by an olygarchy, it has always end by a revolution (or a lost war) of course today with the efficiency of armement and media control, it would be much more complicated for citizen to change the rules

jpitre's picture
jpitre
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Re: Daily Digest - July 1

philv

"the trend is not to put the worst in jail, they are on the way to win the game"

I don't like to think that you are correct, however that's the way it is going at the moment. If any sanity prevailed at the top, they would be on the way to jail. Madoff gets life and yet in the scheme of things he an insignificant player. The powers that be are trying to convince us that he was the biggest Ponzi schemer ever, when in fact right under our noses the really big ones continue with impunity

Jim

 

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rickets
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Re: Daily Digest - July 1

 

"To be successful in the stock market, someone else has to lose.  It's a zero net gain really. "

This is a common misperception in trading.  It is to be applied to the futures markets but not the stock market.  The stock market is not a zero sum game at all.  There is no expiration date on common equity, and therefore its impossible to define it as a zero sum game.  Further, to say its a zero sum game is the same as saying all non-public businesses are a zero sum game.  People have stock in non-public businesses, its just not traded publicly.

That being said, Wall St is rigged against the common investor.

 
idoctor's picture
idoctor
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Re: Daily Digest - July 1

Stimulus Is a Small Patch for a Big Economic Hole

http://www.cnbc.com/id/31688259

philv's picture
philv
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Re: Daily Digest - July 1

Madoff plea guilty, therefore his associates, family and maybe SEC friends won't be under the spotligth, no explainations, no ideep investigation on what he did and how he did it by a court. The 150 years for madoff is a fuse, the poppulation is happy and have a sentiment of justice. I wont be surprise that Madoff will evade from jail in a few years, monney corrupt and a lot of monney corrupt a lot... Or maybee a heart attack, an accident, a suicide.. Nobody want to see a bestseller :  "Charles Ponzi was a small player" by Bernard Lawrence Madoff in a few month / year ... or his future book could be title "The essence of 21 century finance "

We always forget that because madoff was not an investor, he did not lost any money during the crash, he have probably spent a little (compare to the billions) and distribute some to keep mouth shut but the monney have only change hands and if the top of the pyramid is not broke, it could be deconsruct but I don't thing we will see that happening... 

 

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Damnthematrix
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'I'll pay back'

'I'll pay back': Schwarzenegger issues IOUs

By Washington correspondent John Shovelan for AM

The US state of California is in an economic state of emergency, and tomorrow it will begin issuing IOUs to pay its debt.

The state is suffering huge declines in revenues because of the recession and the crash of the real estate market.

As well, the Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and his legislature cannot come up with a balanced budget to address the crisis.

California has about $4 billion of obligations that it cannot meet.

"We are running out of cash," Mr Schwarzenegger said.

Tomorrow, Mr Schwarzenegger and his state controller John Chiang will begin issuing IOUs as payment.

"Resorting to IOUs has devastating impacts to individuals in California and will cost taxpayers millions," Mr Chiang said.

To conserve cash, the IOUs will promise payment to businesses that provided the state government with goods and services.

The IOUs will also go to agencies with responsibilities for health and social welfare recipients including the elderly, disabled and college students.

After budget negotiations between the legislature and the governor broke down, Mr Schwarzenegger declared an economic state of emergency to force legislators into a special session to deal with a $30 billion state budget deficit.

Laughing stock

Mr Schwarzenegger says he is not embarrassed that people are saying California is a laughing stock.

"I am proud of California even though we have our crisis, but no-one should point fingers because as you can see, there is more than 30 states right now that have the fiscal year starting today, but also don't have a budget," he said.

"And also on top of it, people always say that the United States maybe has to bail out California and all of those things ... who is to say that the United States should bail us out? We are actually [in] much better shape than the United States."

Issuing IOUs retains enough cash to pay the state's General Obligation Bonds.

About $15 billion is being set aside to meet obligations to investor holding Californian debt.

The state needs to reassure investors because it is proposing to sell another $10 billion to $14 billion in short-term debt just to meet cash flow needs.

The state government is negotiating with banks so people who hold IOUs can convert them to cash but there is no guarantee banks will honour them. That hinges on the interest rate the banks will receive.

Carl Ransford of the Bank of Manhattan says accepting the IOUs carries risk for a bank.

"The bank is being forced to take on these obligations of the state and then ... what is the resulting risk-based capital charges to these institutions?" he said.

Mr Schwarzenegger is hoping that issuing IOUs will embarrass members of the legislators into coming up with a balanced budget.

California struggles with a state budget almost every year, but this year it is taking place amid the state's worst drop in revenues since the Great Depression.

California risks running out of cash altogether later this month unless it can balance its books.

Tags: economic-trends, world-politics, international-financial-crisis,

Headless's picture
Headless
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Re: The Cap and Tax Fiction

WSJ says:

"Under this more comprehensive scenario, it found Waxman-Markey would cost the economy $161 billion in 2020, which is $1,870 for a family of four."

And Rickets says:

"To be successful in the stock market, someone else has to lose.  It's a zero net gain really."

And George Shultz, as should every person with a pulse, makes the point that "those who lose will be Americans" and "those who win will be the gangsters on Wall Street." (Paraphrased, but accurate.)

Imagine selling all your children's toys--every one that you ever would have given them--and handing the money to Bernie Madoff, Jeff Skilling, or Lloyd Blankfein. That's exactly what's going to happen if this thing passes.

Actual Shultz quote:

"If you like credit default swaps, wait 'til Wall Street traders get a hold of you cap and trade business."

http://fora.tv/2009/06/24/George_Shultz__David_OReilly_Talk_Energy_Policy#fullprogram

(Jump to chapter 7 for a little ol' common sense. What the fu$& are we thinking to allow this bill to pass?!!!)

An EMPHATIC P.S.: David O'Reilly says in the closing comments:

"I would like to see the people involved in energy policy, from all dimensions, agree on a common set of energy facts. It just blows my mind when I see the talk about numbers of this and numbers of that with out any basis in facts..."

This point strikes home with me. To inject a personal perspective: As a cancer survivor who has--to date--been given 23 years longer than I expected to have, I surely have no time to donate to the service of Wall Street gangsters; that is to say, the system has become SO corrupt that it disincentivizes a population of experienced and wise retirees from donating the one thing they have in abundance, their time, that could exponentially improve the quality of education in America: imagine a mentor for every child; someone who was there 24/7 when parents weren't--or couldn't be.

When nothing Wall Street D.C. produces can be trusted, it won't. And thus, not only have the pensions and the middle class been sacked, but the national repository of available life-experience, wisdom, and generosity has been sequestered (by cynicism) in a dark confined space where angry monologues of "I remember when..." endlessly ricochet, like bullets, off of needless walls erected by eternal children who were hopelessly damaged by virtue of birth to immoral, neglectful parents.  And these angry, unavoidable rants in the dark, by what were once the pillars of productive society, render most trapped within mindfully injured: there is simply blood: warm blood on a cold floor surrounded by a Wall; a wall you know as Wall Street.

gtazman's picture
gtazman
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Re: The Cap and Tax Fiction

Good job Headless.  Here is the Heartland Institutes take on the insane CAP and TAX bill passed by a slim majority of politicos.  Its bad enough that our EPA has labeled CO2 as a polutant (NOT) as discussed on CM before, but now everybody is going to be forced to pay through the nose for any kind of energy.  The money will not go to infrastructure to transition to renewables.  Our employees (Taxpayer owned) at Goldman Sachs will profit quite hansomely trading the contracts you cvan be sure.

http://www.heartland.org/article/25570/Climate_Change_Reconsidered.html

Climate Change Reconsidered

Written By: Zonia M. Pino
Published In: Research & Commentary > 2009
Publication date: 06/30/2009
Publisher: The Heartland Institute

The American Clean Energy Security Act--better known as "Waxman-Markey"--has been approved by the U.S. House of Representatives and is pending in the Senate.

The measure, which aims to restrict carbon dioxide emissions in an effort to "stop global warming," would cost $846 billion in the next decade alone, in the form of required payments for emissions allowances, according to a June 5 report from the Congressional Budget Office. According to an analysis of the bill by The Heritage Foundation, Waxman-Markey will:

* "Reduce aggregate gross domestic product (GDP) by $7.4 trillion,

* Destroy 844,000 jobs on average, with peak years seeing unemployment rise by over 1,900,000 jobs,

* Raise electricity rates 90 percent after adjusting for inflation,

* Raise inflation-adjusted gasoline prices by 74 percent,

* Raise residential natural gas prices by 55 percent,

* Raise an average family's annual energy bill by $1,500, and

* Increase inflation-adjusted federal debt by 29 percent, or $33,400 additional federal debt per person, again after adjusting for inflation."

That's a high price to pay to address global warming, which the general public and tens of thousands of scientists doubt is a catastrophic problem brought on by human activity. Opinion polls show support for legislation to "stop global warming" is plummeting, and is now as low as the percentage of people who believe Elvis is still alive (17%). Many of your constituents are "skeptics."

They should be skeptical: Some of the world's most prominent physicists and atmospheric scientists are on record saying popular fears of global warming are "preposterous" (Dr. Richard Tol), "incoherent" (Dr. Antonino Zichichi), "grossly exaggerated" (Dr. Freeman Dyson), and "embarrassing" (Dr. Richard Lindzen).

One reason global warming realists are rarely quoted by politicians and the mainstream media is because they lacked a panel of distinguished scientists (like the other side's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)) able to produce comprehensive scientific reports that purport to represent the "consensus view" of the scientific community.

But not any more. The Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC) has released its first report. Weighing in at 880 pages (and 4 pounds, 7 ounces), Climate Change Reconsidered is every bit as authoritative and comprehensive as Climate Change 2007, the latest report from the IPCC.

Each chapter of the book is available online and summarized below.

----------

Chapter 1: Global Climate Models and Their Limitations
http://www.nipccreport.org/chapter1.html
Describes the limitations of the IPCC's attempt to forecast future climate conditions by using computer climate models.

Chapter 2: Feedback Factors and Radiative Forcing
http://www.nipccreport.org/chapter2.html
Describes feedback factors that reduce the Earth's temperature sensitivity to changes in atmospheric CO2.

Chapter 3: Observations: Temperature Records
http://www.nipccreport.org/chapter3.html
Reviews empirical data on past temperatures. No support is found for the IPCC's claim that climate observations during the twentieth century are either unprecedented or provide evidence of an anthropogenic effect on climate.

Chapter 4: Observations: Glaciers, Sea Ice, Precipitation, and Sea Level
http://www.nipccreport.org/chapter4.html
Reviews observational data on glacier melting, sea ice area, variation in precipitation, and sea level rise. No evidence is found of trends that could be attributed to twentieth century warming.

Chapter 5: Solar Variability and Climate Cycles
http://www.nipccreport.org/chapter5.html
Summarizes the research of a growing number of scientists who say variations in solar activity, not greenhouse gases, are the true driver of climate change.

Chapter 6: Observations: Extreme Weather
http://www.nipccreport.org/chapter6.html
Investigates and debunks the widespread fears that global warming might cause more extreme weather.

Chapter 7: Biological Effects of Carbon Dioxide Enrichment
http://www.nipccreport.org/chapter7.html
Examines the biological effects of rising CO2 concentrations and warmer temperatures. This is the largely unreported side of the global warming debate, perhaps because it is unequivocally good news.

Chapter 8: Species Extinction
http://www.nipccreport.org/chapter8.html
Examines the IPCC's claim that CO2-induced increases in air temperature will cause unprecedented plant and animal extinctions.

Chapter 9: Human Health Effect
http://www.nipccreport.org/chapter9.html
Challenges the IPCC's claim that CO2-induced global warming is harmful to human health. A thorough examination of the peer-reviewed scientific literature reveals that further global warming would likely do just the opposite and actually reduce the number of lives lost to extreme thermal conditions.

----------

Nothing in this Research & Commentary is intended to influence the passage of legislation, and it does not necessarily represent the views of The Heartland Institute. For further information on this and other environment topics, visit The Heartland Institute's Web site at http://www.heartland.org and PolicyBot, Heartland's free online research database.

If you have any questions about this issue or The Heartland Institute, please contact me at 312/377-4000 or [email protected].

 

Brainless's picture
Brainless
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Re: Daily Digest - July 1

 The CO2 myth just have (had) to keep its strenth until everything is passed in congress and senate. Even when it is debunked later the 'tax' is in place and will never go away again.

idoctor's picture
idoctor
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Re: Daily Digest - July 1

Peter Schiff can't believe Cramer LOL!

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Davos
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Re: Daily Digest - July 1

 Hello iDoctor:

Good watch! I like Soros a lot and watched his latest clips yesturday.

Anyway, he said what Shiff did, that the dollar stinks but the other currencies stink more, that China would like to secretly divest it's USDs.

Then he said, China is buying commodities.

That really got me thinking about what currency they have to settle commodities in! I don't know how much they are buying but I wonder if this isn't their way of divesting/converting their worthless currency (USD) into a better store of value.

BTW AWESOME picture!!!!!!

Take care

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fujisan
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Re: Daily Digest - July 1

Here is a chart of the deposit of bank at ECB. I'm no expert, but could the recent rise mean the banks don't trust each other and prefer lending to a "safe" place? Compare with 5Y trend, it look scarry.

Bloomberg.com: Personal Finance

Davos's picture
Davos
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Re: Daily Digest - July 1

Fujisan, check this out 

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DavidC
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Re: Daily Digest - July 1

Davos,

You sure it wasn't a typo?! :-)

Scary.

DavidC

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fujisan
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Re: Daily Digest - July 1

Banks Continue To Park Liquidity In ECB's Deposit Facility - EasyBourse actualité

FRANKFURT -(Dow Jones)- Euro-zone banks continued to hoard much of the liquidity they received last week, placing EUR 252.067 billion in the European Central Bank's deposit facility overnight from Tuesday, data from the ECB showed Wednesday.
The ECB pays an interest rate of 0.25% on the funds, which is broadly in line with the current interbank market rate.
The heavy use of the overnight facility shows that banks still prefer to place funds with the ECB directly, rather than lend to peers.
That comes despite the ECB's huge liquidity injections. The ECB last week paid out EUR 442 billion ($616.24 billion) of one-year money at a generous 1% rate.
Traders say the hoarding may start to ease Wednesday, as the beginning of a new quarter allows banks a little more freedom in managing their balance sheets.
The ECB didn't disclose the names of the borrowers, or lenders.

Note: the EUR 442 billion of one-year money could be a regular refinancing.

Damnthematrix's picture
Damnthematrix
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Posts: 3998
Re: Daily Digest - July 1

Believe me, the tax is the least of your problems....  In any case, the tax works like this: you use less Carbon, you pay less tax.  Use almost no Carbon like us, and you ask yourself, "what tax?".

If you've done your homework and watched the CC, you'll realise austerity is just around the corner, and when you live simply so you may simply live, well you just don't touch the stuff...

Mike

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