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Thoughts From The Precipice

Things are worsening. But we're not over the edge quite yet.
Friday, November 23, 2018, 5:51 PM

As you already know, things are unraveling. The narratives of the past are being revealed as false and fraudulent -- even harmful.

For example, the fallacy of pursuing "ever more" growth. Growth up to a point is beneficial, but it turns self-destructive when it exceeds what available resources can sustain.

As it is practiced, economic growth as pursued around the world today is now destructive. If we continue on our current trajectory, it will become fatal.

It already has for an increasing scope of the natural world. Beauty is being ruined. The complex web of life is being shredded. Species loss is accelerating.

This kind of damage is essentially permanent.

Pollinator Collapse

Right now insect ecologists the world over are utterly horrified by the declines in insect populations. “Crashing” is not too strong of a term.

It’s almost as if the Rapture happened; but instead of humans, it's the insects who were taken.

A healthy, prudent response by a healthy, prudent culture would be to immediately ban any insecticides suspected of contirbuting to the problem. And to swiftly deploy a serious scientific resources into studying the issue.

Nothing of the sort is happening in the US yet. Few other countries are, either; with the exception of France.  This is really positive news:.

France Is The First Country To Ban All Five Bee-Killing Pesticides

Nov 21, 2018

With bees on the endangered list and the terrible consequences that will come to pass if they become extinct, France has taken a drastic step in an attempt to save the population of pollinating insects.

As reported by Organic Consumers, the European nation has decided to ban all five pesticides that scientists believe are responsible for killing bees.

Both beekeepers and environmentalists have praised the move, but others, including cereal and sugar beet farmers have issued stark warnings about the move instead. They have warned that their crops could well be left defenseless against harmful insects aside from bees that destroy their produce.

Just recently, the European Union ruled to ban three of the five neonicotinoid pesticides — clothianidin, imidacloprid, and thiamethoxam — but France decided to put a blanket ban on the two excluded by the EU’s ban as well, thiacloprid and acetamiprid. The ban from the European Union starts on December 19 this year.

France’s ban extends to the use of all five pesticides both on outdoor crop fields and inside greenhouses.

(Source)

My prediction is that within 5 years, France will enjoy a resurgence in all sorts of insects -- bees, moths, butterflies, beetles, as well as the birds that feed on them. 

If these efforts include habitat preservation and the planting of various plants that support pollinators and other insects, beauty and harmony will return to the French landscape along with better crop and native flora yields.

Perhaps you’ve read the recent research on the process known as “co-extinction” where the loss of a small handful of species can bring about the collapse of an entire ecosystem. In this past week, the esteemed journal Nature conducted a review of the scientific literature on the subject, offering this observation:

In particular, it is becoming increasingly evident how biotic interactions, in addition to permitting the emergence and maintenance of diversity, also build up complex networks through which the loss of one species can make more species disappear (a process known as ‘co-extinction’), and possibly bring entire systems to an unexpected, sudden regime shift, or even total collapse.

(Source – Nature)

In other words, complex systems are complex. We cannot predict what will happen when such systems are perturbed, because the results are emergent. That means they arise from the exceedingly subtle interplay of conditions which are themselves subject to all sorts of feedback loops.

I'm personally very weirded out and terrified by the sudden loss of insect populations across the globe. I think it’s a very clear harbinger of big danger to come. 

The mature response when faced with a situation that is well outside of one's personal capabilities should be rooted in humility and caution. If you don’t understand what the big red button on the control panel in front of you does, then don’t push it.

Sadly, that's not how society is reacting (so far) to this tremendous mass die-off.

We’re currently losing species at the fastest rate than the past tens of millions of years. CO2 is now building up at an alarming rate producing unpredictable results. The climate is yet another highly-complex system with its own emergent behaviors, the impacts of which we’re only now just beginning to feel.

So, in my eye, France is doing the right thing. Barring conclusive scientific 'smoking gun' evidence that A causes B which leads to C (which is almost never available by the way), they’ve combined both the direct and circumstantial evidence to justify a ban on the entire class of neonicotinoid pesticides.

To date, while causation has not been definitively proven, in part due to the resistance mounted by the deep-pocketed companies who manufacture and sell these chemicals (which are real biocides for their broad toxicity to both invertebrate and avian species), data showing correlation between the use of neonics and pollinator die-offs has been clear for years.

The subtler thing at work here is evidence that a growing consciousness is arising. One that also values non-human life and is willing to admit that science and technology have their limits.

This is a sort of wisdom long absent from the power structures in place.

I am personally grateful for this dawning awareness. And it’s coming not a moment too soon.

New Money Awareness

“Learn how to see. Realize that everything connects to everything else.”

~ Leonardo Davinci

What do plummeting insect populations have to do with the S&P 500? A lot more than most people realize.

To begin with, the trajectories of both over the past ten years are unsustainable.

Both are artifacts of the human experiment of running an exponential economic growth model on a finite planet. And both will end very badly if continued at their same rate.

Very few people are ready to accept that outlook. If insects go to zero, then in all probability so do humans. One does not simply upend a billion years of careful ecological fine-tuning and skate away unharmed.

With a similar deficit of perspective, many people expect (and are counting on) that equities will continue to compound at 10% per year on average -- forever. But these same people will stare back at you blankly if you point out that the economy is advancing at half (or less) that rate.

How can the claims upon something sustainably grow at a faster rate than the thing itself?

Look: the economy can't grow infinitely, forever. It just runs out resources at some point. Or room. Or maybe its raping/pollution of ecosytems ends up killings all the insects and that’s the trigger for collapse. Who knows?

All we can be certain of is that our current addiction to infinite growth is a death sentence.

Focus on Markets

Why do I spend a lot of time focusing on the financial markets?

Because everybody has a stake in them, even if they have no money parked there. So that’s where the trouble will first be felt by the majority of people.

Once the trouble gets large enough and loud enough, more people will be willing to take a harder look at the more difficult issues. This is why I consider the financial markets to be a telegraphing agent for the trouble ahead.

Part of my mission is to help protect people from unnecessary losses. We work hard for our money, our wealth, and it would be a shame to have it disappear in a flash due to inane policy errors by the central banks.

So understanding the likely impact(s) of a painful delfation of the third and largest credit cycle -- the Everything Bubble which we're currently living through -- is vitally important.

Yes, I happen to think that we (as in humans) are currently headed for hardship. We’ve got ecological issues rapidly exploding all around us, and our collective energy policy is not progressing nearly rapidly enough to wean us off of fossil fuels -- oil, most critically -- in time to avoid serious disruptions to our way of live in the future.

But those are harder issues to engage folks on. Huge belief systems stand in the way, guarding the entrance and preventing awareness for most people.

So we begin with the markets. They are non-denominational, nonpolitical, and everybody cares about them.

But our "gains" in the markets won’t matter in the slightest if we’ve collapsed the ecosystems along the way. Or forgot to reconfigure our energy infrastructure for an all-electric future and a complicated assortment of alt-energy devices and storage methods.

More personally, whether or not your portfolio is larger or smaller will be meaningless if you don't protect that wealth. The same is true if you're not personally resilient across all 8 Forms Of Capital.

A time of rapid change is upon us. Most people will be caught unawares because they have not taken the time to educate themselves. That’s a pity, but it seems to be a human constant throughout history.

Please don’t be among them. Educate yourself and take smart action today.

Thoughts From The Precipice

As is proper for this time of the year, I'm reminded of all the things in my life that I'm grateful for. This moment. My family. Time. The support of so many PeakProspery.com readers -- both those I've met in person, and the many I haven't.

The past decade of 'free money' issued by the central banks has given us all a bit more time to prepare, to get ready, to learn and educate ourselves as to the true nature of the many predicaments we will face in the arriving future.

Despite my very strong motivation in pointing out the many ways our systems are failing us; I am a preservationist. And a conservationist. I think life, of all kinds, is amazing.

I want human progress to continue. I want a better future for all of us. And I want to leave behind a world worth inheriting.

Yes, we’re at the precipice. And while it feels like we may be in the process of tipping over, we are not yet fully over the edge. There's much you can still do.

Which is why in Part 2: Easy Come, Hard Go we identify which failure points in the economy/financial markets are most vulnerable and the 7 key indicators we're monitoring most closely now that crash-risk and recession-risk alarms have started screaming loudly.

As I've said, there is still much you can do with the fleeting time you have left. Educate yourself and take smart action today.

Click here to read Part 2 of this report (free executive summary, enrollment required for full access).

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17 Comments

Libertys's picture
Libertys
Status: Member (Offline)
Joined: Jul 2 2013
Posts: 2
Your Opinion on some concerns time and reaction

First of all, I would like to thank you for all the work you are doing in order to inform the people adequately. You are part of the few good men left in our society. Thank you very much for taking the time to read the following message. It is really appreciated. I wrote to some expects like Bill Holter, Jim Sinclair, Greg Hunter, Mike Malone, Dave Janda etc.. Most of them answer me with interesting though.  I would like to point out some concern our family and other people have. It would be great if you could give me your point of view. Maybe you and others experts could do a panel discussion “interview” concerning the possible length of time this reset, social economic collapse could last and the probable reaction people might have once they realize their pension and saving have vanish. As we all know, once we do good research as many experts are saying we are headed toward a socio economic collapse that might be very hard. Like many experts are saying 1929 will look like a walk in the park compared to what is going to happen. It would be very appreciated if some experts could speak about the length this social economic collapse could be, how long people should really be prepare for what’s probably coming. This collapse might be totally different from what we ever heard since it might be global. All the currencies are losing their values, total global debt is unstainable, hyperinflation is rising, more people are dependent on the government, more people are dumb, brainwash, etc. Some experts are not very clear concerning how long and how bad the coming collapse could probably be. They are also not very clear about how extensively people should prepare. Some experts seem to be saying that it is good enough to store some food, water, fuel, etc… for a few month( 6 month) or a few years and expect a quick recovery after only three to five years while other experts are saying that the recovery actually takes much longer (Ex. 30 to 40 years). Who’s right? This question needs to be answered accurately. It is quite different to prepare for a few months than for 10 years and more. This question seem very important since the scenario to prepare for a short versus a long period it’s quite different, less expensive, less time consuming. etc…? It is relatively easy to store food, water for a few months or even for 5 years versus trying to be self-sufficient for 10 years or more. Being self-sufficient for 10 years or more since the chain distribution might stop and to get back on running the system might take a lot of years. Thus, being self-sufficient mean buying a farm land with some acres in order to produce foods, have animals, have woods, water and buy tractors in order the work the field etc. If this is what people should do, we will do it but it would be nice to have your opinion and the opinion of all those experts since the scenario to prepare for a short versus a long period it’s quite different, less expensive, less time consuming. Looking at how those crises unfolded throughout history and compares the current situation with previous collapse. When we compare the present situation with past situations, the present situation seems to be actually much worst. It seems that the coming collapse will be a very bad one since it has been building up for decades and that most people are terribly unproductive, uneducated, brainwashed and dependent on others. Those uninform people will be completely devastated and their reaction could be unpredictable. “When People Lose Everything, They Have Nothing Left To Lose, And They Lose It”( G. C.) To make the situation even worst, people are now much more interdependent and our societies are dependent on high technology and especially the power grid, computers, high tech communication and public services. This coming collapse could be a real nightmare and could possibly last for decades. It would be very nice to know for sure how long and how bad this collapse will be and have your opinion and different expert opinion on this issue.

Thank you
Best Regards
Libertys

shastatodd's picture
shastatodd
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Posts: 61
preparing for a prediciment?
Libertys wrote:

It would be very appreciated if some experts could speak about the length this social economic collapse could be, how long people should really be prepare for what’s probably coming. 

the "limits to growth" research came out in 1972... it has fairly accuracte projections of what we will get to go through if we did not change back when that was a possibility.

preparing for collapse? this is a prediciment we really cannot prepare for, so enjoy these remaining good days.

ckessel's picture
ckessel
Status: Martenson Brigade Member (Offline)
Joined: Nov 12 2008
Posts: 486
" This coming collapse could

" This coming collapse could be a real nightmare and could possibly last for decades. It would be very nice to know for sure how long and how bad this collapse will be............."

Hi Libertys,

I think we all would like to have a well maintained crystal ball in good working order to help with our planning activities. Unfortunately, history tends to show us that not even the best of the best can consistently predict how things will go, especially when one tries to get down to the finer details regarding timing. But I have shared your wishes for sure!

My personal $.02 cents worth is pretty simple. Humanity has been able to expand and flourish to the degree that it has been able to find and exploit the earths resource base. Humans have been pretty good at it as it turns out. Other life forms which we depend on have paid a price for our expansion and if history is a teacher, this is a phase/cycle which we will transition through. What that transition will entail cannot be known with certainty but I think humanity has had it's turn at the table and unless we can get our attention on the real issues we face, this will not go well at all.

My senses tell me we are near the peak of the cycle of growth and we are beginning into a new phase which will require a completely different approach. My personal quest is to become a part of the discovery of that new approach .......... whatever it is. My level of certainty that doing things (living life) as I learned to do in the growth cycle is not workable at all so that opens up a whole new set of things to learn and live by.

Prediction time:
1) Mankind will not be capable of acting in a way that will allow a balance of life on the planet. (energy systems will be depleted and not sustain the current quantity of human life)
2) The planet will take matters into it's own hands. (The energy budget will be more in line with what comes from the sun each day once the energy dense fuels have been consumed)
3) Life that remains will reorganize.
4) Time frame - unknown.
5) When will it begin? It already has. It will pick up speed as we move more into crises mode.
6) How long will it last? It took the planet about 400+ million years to create the energy storage which we are burning through so I'd say we are in for a long haul!

Uncletommy's picture
Uncletommy
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Hanging by thread or braiding r(h)ope?

Those who resist effectively in the years ahead may not be able to stem the economic decline, the mounting political dysfunction, the collapse of empire, and the ecological disasters. But they will draw from acts of kindness, and the kindness of others, the strength and courage to endure. (Chris Hedges, America the Farewell Tour)

pgp's picture
pgp
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There is a strange harmony to life

There is a strange harmony to life.  The Buddhists would say that for every winter there is a spring, for every hill a mountain.  Balance is the natural order.  What's remarkable is how all the "imbalances" forced upon the world by humanity appear to be converging.   Just when you thought perpetual drought was going to be the world's immediate bane, insect numbers crash. 

It's almost as if nature is conspiring to cleanse itself of the bipedal parasite it is infected with.  Not by the brute force of tempest and plague but through more covert mechanisms like reduced pollination and rising ocean acidity.

The upshot is that nature doesn't take sides, balance is restored arbitrarily, powered only by unstoppable interconnected physical forces that can't yet be modelled by modern science.

The original trigger for all this however is obvious but still people refuse to see it.  Clearly it's a numbers game.  Balances are shifted by quantity and the quantity of people sucking on the world's teat has exceeded its ability to supply and heal

Nature is brutal, there is no second chance for the dumb animal that takes a wrong turn.  For a  species as aware and knowledgeable as homosapien, flagrantly ignoring the natural world it depends upon and disregarding the importance of balance, justice might well be served in its self-destruction.

robie robinson's picture
robie robinson
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Whether we

or our politicians know it or not, nature is party to all our deals, she has a longer memery and a sterner code justice than we.       Wendell Berry

brushhog's picture
brushhog
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You ARE nature.
robie robinson wrote:

or our politicians know it or not, nature is party to all our deals, she has a longer memery and a sterner code justice than we.       Wendell Berry

Quotes like this strike me funny. The underlying assumption here,[ and in many posts and expressions of dismay ] is that there is nature, which is good and pure and right, and there are human beings, which exist outside of nature and are working in some miguided opposition to the will of nature.

What is your body made up of? about 3/4ths water [ oddly about the same as the earth..hmm]. what is in your blood, in your tissues? Copper, Iron, Potassium, calcium, etc...the same elements in the soil, the same things found in all things on the earth. You made from the "stuff" of earth. When you breath out, the trees breath in, when they breath out, you breath in...half your lungs are hanging up outside. So what are you? You are a manifestation of the earth. You ARE the earth. There is no seperation. What you are doing, the earth is doing.

There is no such thing as "nature does this, but we do that". Thats like saying rain does this but a rain drop does something else. Whatever the drop is doing, the rain is doing. The rain IS the drop, the drop is the rain. Dont worry. We are going to do exactly what our nature is. Soemday you will die, the copper, iron, magesium, and calcium will be resorbed into the earth and reused, remade....just like every person, every species, every population that came before and will come after. There is nothing "wrong" with us...a rain drop can't do "wrong"...it does what it does. It is what it is.

robie robinson's picture
robie robinson
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Brushhog

The source of that quote deserves a perusal. Wendell Berry has ,,,well time would fail me to type his accomplishments.

I am sure if you knew much about Mr Berry you wouldn’t assume his awareness of his place in nature to be shallow.

Thank you for your reply, it takes much effort.

 

a grateful disciple of Wendell Berry, robie robinson 

Mark_BC's picture
Mark_BC
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Posts: 522
The sad part I see about all

The sad part I see about all this is that the majority of people will not see this crash for what it is. The central bank financial manipulators have hidden the declines over the last few decades with their money printing and created a totally false economy and a phony expectation of what a "healthy" economy should be, in the minds of the average person -- full employment, growth, lots of activity, reliance on technology, that consumption is good because it stimulates GDP -- all the usual garbage the bankers feed us.. People believe that technology has somehow separated us from nature, that we no longer need it because we have elevated ourselves above other animals who fully depend on nature. That is an illusion created by our smartphones.

People see environmental depletion as something scientists warned about decades ago that never came to pass because we escaped those limits with electric cars. Most people see the last few decades as normal. When the crash happens, they will not understand why, and you can be sure the media won't be telling them why. Rather than finally understanding, and accepting and adapting, they will demand a return to "normal" which will never happen. Because of this, I don't think humanity will be able to deal with this transition, at least here in the West, and it will continue to be a downhill slide from here out.

MarkM's picture
MarkM
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Posts: 855
brushhog wrote: robie
brushhog wrote:
robie robinson wrote:

or our politicians know it or not, nature is party to all our deals, she has a longer memery and a sterner code justice than we.       Wendell Berry

Quotes like this strike me funny. The underlying assumption here,[ and in many posts and expressions of dismay ] is that there is nature, which is good and pure and right, and there are human beings, which exist outside of nature and are working in some miguided opposition to the will of nature.

What is your body made up of? about 3/4ths water [ oddly about the same as the earth..hmm]. what is in your blood, in your tissues? Copper, Iron, Potassium, calcium, etc...the same elements in the soil, the same things found in all things on the earth. You made from the "stuff" of earth. When you breath out, the trees breath in, when they breath out, you breath in...half your lungs are hanging up outside. So what are you? You are a manifestation of the earth. You ARE the earth. There is no seperation. What you are doing, the earth is doing.

There is no such thing as "nature does this, but we do that". Thats like saying rain does this but a rain drop does something else. Whatever the drop is doing, the rain is doing. The rain IS the drop, the drop is the rain. Dont worry. We are going to do exactly what our nature is. Soemday you will die, the copper, iron, magesium, and calcium will be resorbed into the earth and reused, remade....just like every person, every species, every population that came before and will come after. There is nothing "wrong" with us...a rain drop can't do "wrong"...it does what it does. It is what it is.

Ahh, but we are working in a misguided opposition to nature. As far as I  know, we are the only animals capable of building and using complex tools. I'm not talking about a stick in a hole to get ants. I am talking about a Cat D9 and other amazing tools that have allowed us to work in opposition to nature. We are able to take natural things and transform them into unnatural things. When I am stuck in multiple lanes of traffic in my major metropolitan hometown, all I can wonder is, "Who can possibly think that this is not harmful to our sphere, who thinks this is in any way sustainable in the long term?" Creating and using an automobile is not a "natural" process, it is not a drop of rain.

The minerals that we consume during our lives are not redeposited to be reused the way that a creature traversing the woods or fields is. Our consumed minerals are concentrated mostly in sewage sanitation plants and metal boxes in cemetaries.

In the long run, our ways will undo us and "nature" will adjust and move on. Which is what Mr. Berry is alluding to. As Robie has said, Mr. Berry is an accomplished man of many years. One might not agree with his stance, but that should come after reading some of his works. It should not be based on the reading of a short quote.

Mark_BC's picture
Mark_BC
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Posts: 522
The pursuit of deciding what

The pursuit of deciding what is "natural" or not is one that ultimately will go nowhere. Humans are just as much a product of the planet as any other living being, so even if we nuked the whole planet into oblivion that could be considered to be "natural". Any decision we make, whatever direction that may take us, is natural.

I think a more useful definition of "natural" would be anything that is sustainable over the long term with the ecological processes that rejuvenate a resource that is consumed, or to the contrary, absorb and neutralize a waste stream. Clearly what we are doing now does not fit that category so we are definitely not "natural", although that concept of "natural" is only something that we humans see through our own perspective in terms of how an activity affects ourselves, if it sustainable for us or not.

In the end humanity will kill itself in a grand population explosion and die-off. It's happened multiple times before "naturally" with other species. The only difference with us is that we were able to make complex tools and economies which were used to better exploit the riches stored underground, which will make our eventual collapse even greater than the previous ones in history.

 

herewego's picture
herewego
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Posts: 156
huge belief systems, love of place, etc.

Thanks for this Chris, and for the great posts, fellow PPers. It is imperative for me to hear that heartbeat in the PP discourse - recognition of habitat as the key player in our situation.  Without that element clearly expressed, relevance slips away, at least for me. 

There is so much good stuff here!  To start:

Yes, I happen to think that we (as in humans) are currently headed for hardship. We’ve got ecological issues rapidly exploding all around us, and our collective energy policy is not progressing nearly rapidly enough to wean us off of fossil fuels -- oil, most critically -- in time to avoid serious disruptions to our way of live in the future. But those are harder issues to engage folks on. Huge belief systems stand in the way, guarding the entrance and preventing awareness for most people. (My italics)

Those pesky huge belief systems.... It takes considerable focus, time and skill, mine and others', to tackle them in myself.  That project compels me, but doesn't seem to register for people around me.  My conclusion is that shifting from unconsciously held, very comfortable but terrifyingly erroneous assumptions that appear to uphold one's entire existence requires psychological and spiritual skillsets that we mostly just don't have access to.  We don't shift because we can't shift, unless we know how to navigate existential terror, face the highly likely loss of everything we love, recognize damage and injustice in epic doses, feel powerless, undone, hopeless, and come out of all that still human.  Oh - and do it again tomorrow.  And THAT is a skillset.  Humans won't go there if they sense they will get stuck there.  And they will get stuck unless they have great navigation tools for the wild world of emotional reactions, and a rock solid community to go with them.

Anyway - that's not what I'd planned to write.  On another note, it's more clear to me what's at stake.  It's not the Earth.  My personal worst-case scenario - social collapse resulting in the neglect of +/- 450 nuclear power plants around the world - would destroy most life and poison her for several million years.  But she works in hundreds of millions, has recovered from other total disruptions to existing biospheres and built new ones.  So what's at stake is not "the Earth".  What's at stake is this age of the Earth, OUR HABITAT.  By that I mean everything we need to exist, so, our lives, our civilizations.  I also mean that which we love and revere as if there is no other.  (Truly, there is no other.)  This age of our ancient habitat, with its bumblebees, flowers, water in all phases, ocean currents circulating oxygen and moderating climate.  This age, until recently abrim with insects.  This age, with its blue skies, astonishing photosynthesis tribes, and soul-satiating beauty.  It does nothing for us to say the Earth will survive.  Sure, that's great, and I'm deeply glad for her, but we are creatures of this age. 

It does seem some worst-case climate scenarios could result in a truly dead planet, so there is that.

Anyway, I'm in love with what we have, brutality of Earth life not withstanding.  I want these creatures.  Dinosaurs? Whatever.  Anerobic organisms?  Nah.  I long for our furry, flowering, feathered, creatures and want them all forever.  I want what we have.  I just want what we have.  There may not be much more of it.  Forest fires are taking BC out summer by summer.  But I'm still desperate in love like any teenager.  Why bother to say this out loud?  Because our culture has forgotten that we love our place like this.  I look into its busy, crazed mind and see no love of place, no love of other in it.  But we are born of this planet and our love for her is a deep thing, an intelligent thing, a force to tap, a joy to know.  This paragraph is to set the record straight, that's all.  And in my experience, we can't do the psychological work necessary to ditch the pesky huge beliefs without knowing our own love.

...nature is party to all our deals....

Yup.  Good place to start a new narrative.  That's what I'd call a nice, solid foundation stone, true from any angle.

Thanks to all for the conversation -

Susan

Uncletommy's picture
Uncletommy
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One of these pictures is not like the other. . .

But I'm curious which one doesn't belong? Social organisms? Termites or humans? Natural or unnatural?

 

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sebastian
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Ethics a fourth E?

Great discussion here folks,

Its quite the conundrum us humans have gotten ourselves into...

I want to survive and thrive and have my children prosper as well. But there doesn’t seem to be a clear path forward does it? I could prep right out and  try and extend our current living standard as long as possible but I would be at odds with the biosphere that provides for us! I’m about 3/4 finished building our home and I’ve done a fairly thorough job with the hope it will be around for my grandchildren. I’m happy and proud of it, but from time to time I feel a pang of guilt also. Knowing that the conventional building process is generally harmful. Over the last dozen years or so I’ve managed to squirl away a few ounces of precious metals knowing that fiat currencies are a foul creation but I also know that the mining process required to get said ounces is a terrible enterprise. The shift to a sustainable humanity (if we make it) will be so vast that I believe 80-90% of us won’t/can’t make it.  Well I’m bumming myself out and I’m generally a fairly happy person!

So how does one go forth ethically knowing what we know?

Seb.

 

 

New_Life's picture
New_Life
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Posts: 395
Bayesian thinking

Chris you might like this if you haven't seen already, basically describes how we should apply layers of evidence and probability to likely outcomes. Your comment on France and pesticides reminded me of it.

Also thought it might be useful in your teachings of the 3 E's where previously held beliefs are the hardest thing to unravel when trying to pass on your message.

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borderpatrol
Status: Member (Offline)
Joined: Feb 21 2017
Posts: 10
fantsy verses reality

Isn't there an old saying that if one were to have a choice of fantsy verses reality, fantsy is the obvious choice. When one has the comfort of present day amenities, why would one deprive oneself of them for something that was supposed to happen 20 years ago?

There are so many facets to the complex problems that we face it's exacerbating. We live in very  complex world and it has taken us over a hundred years to get here. All of our infustructure is based in just in time producing, shipping and consuming.  All based on a very energy intensive model with no plan B.  Plan B has such a difficult time gaining steam and  credibility because it can't compete competively due to the effiecent scale of the current system. 

What exactly is plan B? A few examples are: root cellars, cisterns for water storage, locally produced livestock processed at a small local processor or DYI. A house that can function w/o electricty for a week at a time without missing a beat.  How about safe community w/o the tryanny of the state and taxes to go with it. The list could go on and on.  Are we actually building that bridge? I'm not there, would likely end in divorce if I tried.  I acutually would likely thrive in that transition but it's no fun going it alone. 

The transition could be easy or hard. I see it as very hard, everyone digging their fantasy, no need to sacrifice.  

sebastian's picture
sebastian
Status: Member (Offline)
Joined: Feb 9 2010
Posts: 12
Building the bridge

Hi BP,

im building the bridge right now and boy is it a sacrifice, specially when compared to the blue pill fantasy.  5 people in a fifth wheel is a tough cell to most people that’s for sure. But the alternative is much harder to imagine let alone dictate the pace and direction.

Not sure if you have or not, but it took a few years of talking it out with my wife before we were ready so it’s possible.

Hope you guys can leap together.

Seb.

 

 

 

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