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Think You're Prepared For The Next Crisis? Think Again.

Even the best-laid preparations have failure points
Friday, October 5, 2018, 5:43 PM

No plan of operations extends with any certainty beyond the first contact with the main hostile force.

~ Helmuth von Moltke the Elder

Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.

~ Mike Tyson

Scottish poet Robert Burns aptly penned the famous phrase: “The best laid schemes o' mice an' men/Gang aft a-gley.” (commonly adapted as "The best laid plans of mice and men often go awry.")

How right he was.

History has shown time and time again that the only 100% predictable outcome to any given strategy is that, when implemented, things will not go 100% according to plan.

The Titanic's maiden voyage. Napolean's invasion of Russia. The Soviet's 1980 Olympic hockey dream team. The list of unexpected outcomes is legion.

Dwight D. Eisenhower, the Supreme Commander of the Allied Expeditionary Forces in Europe during WW2, went as far as to say: "In preparing for battle, I've always found that plans are useless but planning is indispensable."

This wisdom very much applies to anyone seeking safety from disaster. Whether preparing for a natural calamity, a financial market crash, an unexpected job loss, or the "long emergency" of resource depletion -- you need to take prudent planful steps now, in advance of crisis; BUT you also need to be mentally prepared for some elements of your preparation to unexpectedly fail when you need them most.

Here are two recent events that drive that point home.

Lessons From Hurricane Florence

A family member of mine lives in Wilmington, NC, which received a direct hit last month from Hurricane Florence.

Being an avid "prepper" who has lived on the east coast all his life (i.e., well-experienced with the late summer/early autumn hurricane season), he was MUCH more geared up for this storm than his neighbors. He also had nearly a week's advance notice to top off his preparations as the media tracked Florence's trajectory following its formation off of the west coast of Africa.

But as ready as he thought he was, he still found he was vulnerable in places he hadn't anticipated.

While he and his family made it through the storm all right in the end, he experienced numerous failures in his preps throughtout. Here are just a few:

  • Climate-related corrosion -- despite careful efforts to store his emergency gear responsibly, he discovered the humid North Carolina climate had ruined several pieces of equipment. The alkaline batteries used in the emergency radios had exploded, corroding the terminals and rendering the devices useless. Similarly, the wick controls on several kersosene lanterns had rusted to the point of inoperability. The lesson here? If you live in an area that experiences excessive conditions (heat/cold/humidity/mold/etc) for even part of the year, you must check your gear regularly to ensure it's still functional.
  • Incorrect assumptions -- Several components did not work as expected when deployed. The "universal" gas line purchased in advance to connect his collection of camping stoves to a large propane tank simply didn't fit. Similarly, his Gas Tapper siphon failed to work, which he was hoping could help neighbors refuel their generators by transferring gas from their cars. But in every case but one, it simply didn't work. The takeway? If you haven't tested a specific piece of gear in advance, under non-emergency conditions, assume it won't work when you need it.
  • Random fate -- Sometimes, as Burns said, plans just go awry. In this case, a diesel truck had been configured to act as a generator and provide electricity to key appliances (freezer, fridge, etc) should the power go out for a prolonged period -- which it did. But as random fate would have it, the starter motor failed. The truck sat there like a big useless brick during the blackout. Fortunately, there was another vehicle in the garage set up similarly that did work. The lesson? Always, always have backups in place for any resources that perform an essential function.

Lessons From The Nevada Desert

The 30+ Peak Prosperity members who spent last week at a defensive firearm training program in the Nevada desert received a similar 'reality check'.

Most who participated already owned firearms and had invested previous hours at their hometown ranges honing their shooting skills. Or so they thought.

What they quickly realized is that shooting at a stationary paper target under controlled conditions is easy. But maintaining the same accuracy and precision under stress is hard.

Simply adding time-pressure makes shooting well exponentially harder. From a distance as short as 5 yards, hitting the target center-mass repeatedly is an easy task when untimed. But put on a 1.5-second time limit to get your shots off -- which leaves little time for aiming and spikes your adrenaline levels -- and suddenly the misses multiply.

And of course, using a handgun in an acutal kinetic altercation is orders of magnitude more stressful than what we experienced. Low lighting, a moving target who may be armed and/or actively attacking, endangered loved ones, the threat of being seriously injured/killed -- these factors will undoubtedly handicap your proficiency to a MUCH greater extent.

We did one simulation drill 'clearing' a home, opening doors that may or may not have bad guys behind them. The added uncertainty and awkward 'real life' obstacles resulted in a lot of misses and accidentally-killed bystanders. Thank god it was just a simulation.

The hard-hitting insight learned during this experience is: If you haven't stress-tested your gear and your skills under the same conditions you plan to rely on them in, you're woefully underprepared. And to think different is dangerously deluding yourself.

For those of you with preparations in place -- in case of a home invasion, or a fire, or a week without access to the grocery store, or a grid-down event, etc -- have you actually done a 'dry run' to explore how smoothly/poorly your plans work in practice?

How Ready Are You, Really, For A Financial Crisis?

Here at PeakProsperity.com, we've been vocally warning about the high risk of another global financial crisis on par with (or worse than) that seen in 2008.

Quite honestly, we've been warning about this for a long while, as markets have powered higher. While that's been very frustrating to endure, we see the market's manic melt-up as further reason to worry -- as the fall from today's over-extended heights will be that much more painful.

And we may finally be seeing the onset of a correction. Wall Street's 'Fear Gauge' is suddenly spiking, signalling that traders expect increased volatility along with falling prices:

Echoes of February Collapse Reappear in Friday Fear Gauge Inversion (Bloomberg)

October 5, 2018, 9:53 AM PDT

The scariest Halloween costume imaginable pales in comparison to a Friday inversion of the VIX futures curve.

A severe sell-off in technology stocks has pushed the front-month VIX futures contract to a premium relative to the second-month contract.

VIX futures are based off the Cboe Volatility Index, a measure of 30-day implied volatility for the S&P 500 Index that’s often called the “fear gauge.”

Typically, the curve is in contango -- that is, upward sloping -- because the outlook for U.S. equities is more uncertain over longer time periods than shorter ones. The historical pattern of realized volatility shows it’s prone to outsized spikes but generally trades in a modest range.

A curve that’s in backwardation -- the opposite of contango -- indicates traders are acutely concerned with the near-term outlook for equities. This structure also provides a tailwind to investors looking to go long volatility through exchange-traded products.

The same situation happened on a pair of inauspicious Fridays. The VIX futures curve inverted on Aug. 21, 2015 and Feb. 2, 2018.

Given the spasm of instability that has rocked the bond and stock markets over the past 48 hours, Chris Martenson just issued a warning to Peak Prosperity's enrolled subscribers, explaining why the recent activity is so concerning.

Here's just a small part of what he had to say:

Joining the 10-year in breaking its long-term downtrend line are the 30-year and 5-year bond yields:

Dialing in a little closer, we see that the 30-year bond yield has more recently carved out a pretty convincing “head and shoulders” pattern which indicates a strong likelihood of heading higher:

Here’s the 5-year bond yield chart. It also looks like a breakout:

What’s fascinating is that as the stock market has only recently started to wobble a bit, the main US Treasurys have been declining in earnest since mid-August:

To recap: what we’re seeing now is very consistent with the end of a major credit-liquidity cycle.  Everything is being sold.  Stocks and bonds.

There’s been no ‘Jell-O moving around the plate’ -- which is the flight-to-safety effect where bonds do well on days stocks do poorly, and vice versa.  Both stocks and bonds are being sold off, and bonds have been going first.

As they say on Wall Street: Stocks are for show, but bonds are for dough. Meaning the smart money is in bonds, and they tend to tell the tale first.

So how ready are you, really, if we're indeed headed into another 2008-style market crash?

One in which the major stock market indexes could drop 50% or more in a matter of just a few weeks? Where housing prices could drop by 30-40% (or more) and home buyers go on strike? Where bond prices relentlessly drop as interest rates march higher, freed from a decade-long supression at historic lows? Where mass layoffs return, and hundreds of thousands of workers lose their jobs each month?

Things could get ugly. Really, really ugly. 

Are the steps you've put in place to-date sufficient? Have you simulated what's most likely to happen to your portfolio, your job, and your living standards under a variety of scenarios?

I think for most reading this, the honest answer is "no". No one is perfectly prepared. You can always do more.

For those feeling more vulnerable than they'd like, here are our recommendations for using the remaining time we have (which may not be much) wisely:

  1. Attend to any unfinished basics -- Money is just one component of the true wealth you need to protect. Another Great Recession will have impact on your home, your relationships, your community, your mental state, etc. First, take our Self-Assessment (it's free) to see where you're currently most vulnerable. Then, review our guide for developing resilience (also free) for guidance on the specific steps to take to best protect yourself.
  2. Crash-test your portfolio with a professional financial advisor -- How vulnerable are your current financial holdings to a major market disruption? If stock/bond/home prices suddenly drop from here, and/or you lose your job, what impact will that have on your lifestyle and your retirement plans? If asset prices fall and you have dry powder to put to use, what logic will dictate the investments you make at that time? These are all critical exercises to go through with your professional financial adviser before the next crash arrives. Contact your adviser to go through them soon -- or, if you don't have a good one, consider scheduling a crash-test consultation (it's free) with the adviser Peak Prosperity endorses.
  3. Monitor carefully the key crash indicators -- Watching the right indicators is the best way to avoid getting caught unawares by the next financial correction. This was a principal theme of our recent New York Summit featuring David Stockman, Chris Martenson and James Howard Kunstler. You can watch several short video clips from the event (again, for free) by clicking here.

And finally, read the report WARNING: The Markets Are Suddenly Looking Very Sick that Chris Martenson just released. It's an excellent composition of the recent developments that point to a market breakdown in-progress.

Remember: the only valueable preparations are those put in place before crisis arrives.

Or to put it more simply: To fail to plan is to plan to fail.

So get going.

Click here to read Chris' full report (free executive summary, enrollment required for full access)

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41 Comments

Barnbuilder's picture
Barnbuilder
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: May 7 2014
Posts: 103
RE: Hurricane Florence preps

Just posted a link to an After Action Review (AAR) by an AMRRON ham operator who also resides in Wilmington, NC  as your family member does.  Despite being more preparedness minded than 95% percent of citizens he still had some lessons learned that those interested may find useful.

 

 

https://www.peakprosperity.com/discussion/114389/ham-radio-and-hurricane...

FooBarr's picture
FooBarr
Status: Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 21 2010
Posts: 10
Which shooting class did you attend?

"The 30+ Peak Prosperity members who spent last week at a defensive firearm training program in the Nevada desert received a similar 'reality check'."

Was this a basic/intermediate pistol course, or did you have any tactical rifle training as well?

If not, then that should be your next class.  It will be a BIGGER reality check once you learn some fundamentals on employing of primary/secondary weapons.  Unless you live in Cali or NY, then wooden spoons will sufice. wink

cmartenson's picture
cmartenson
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Jun 7 2007
Posts: 5968
Two important lessons learned
Barnbuilder wrote:

Just posted a link to an After Action Review (AAR) by an AMRRON ham operator who also resides in Wilmington, NC  as your family member does.  Despite being more preparedness minded than 95% percent of citizens he still had some lessons learned that those interested may find useful.

https://www.peakprosperity.com/discussion/114389/ham-radio-and-hurricane...

That "AAR" was a fun read.  A bit jargony for me, a non Ham Operator, but I loved the sense of agreed procedures and dedication that came through.

These two bullet points caught my attention:

  • I've tested my generator during Hurricane Matthew and we only lost power for 23 hours. I was not prepared for a multi week long grid down scenario. Once we loaded the generator fuel went a lot faster than I had thought. We did not have enough fuel on hand and we had to find it. This hindered other duties where I could’ve been of more service.
  • It's been many years since I've been put in high stress, long duration, situations and with a houseful of family members. I didn't anticipate the emotional toil and disruption of schedule it would take on everyone and this wore me out physically, mentally and emotionally. We also need to implement a schedule beforehand with assigned duties. It took a huge toll on me when I had to direct everything in real time.

The first learning is that you have to be prepared for the scenarios that unfolds.  Since it's impossible to prepare for everything, you have to pick your level of preparedness comfort.  

It takes energy to source, maintain and replace your prep gear and supplies.  It also takes a toll to be short a critical item at a needed time.

I think all one can reasonably hope to do is prep as best you can, learn from other's mistakes, and try to keep the easy basic errors to a minimum.  I know I've left batteries in electronics only to be severely disappointed later on when they've leaked and destroyed the items.  That's an easy mistake to avoid.

Much the same as in handgun training, where there are no accidental shootings only negligent discharges, poor preparedness practices will lead to predictably poor outcomes.  Either the gun was loaded when you thought it wasn't or your finger was on the trigger when it shouldn't have been (or both).  Proper training on robust procedures will correct that.

For instance, at Front sight, when the range instructor yelled "UNLOAD!!" everyone on the line performed these steps:

  1. With the muzzle safely down range, gun at the ready (45 degree angle at the ground), your finger is straight to the side on a known reference point on the side of the barrel
  2. A chamber check is performed (slight slide of the barrel to visually check for brass in the chamber
  3. The magazine is released and put in your mag holster (or a support side pocket if mag holster is full)
  4. The slide is racked and the ejected shell is caught and put in a support side pocket 
  5. The chamber is visually checked again
  6. The mag well is checked by insertion of a finger to assure nothing is in there
  7. If the chamber is empty and the mag well check comes up empty, the gun is either decocked or placed on safe depending on the gun (glocks get neither as they have a safety trigger)
  8. The gun is holstered slowly and carefully using the exact same movements as you would after a gun battle.

I've been shooting long enough to be competent, but I never had a detailed procedure for unloading.  Now that I do, I'm using it every time.  The chance of my gun accidentally being loaded when I think it's empty has dropped to very, very close to zero.  I would say zero, but you can't really ever say that, but as long as this procedure is followed every single time, the gun will always be unloaded. 

The danger comes in me being sloppy, and forgetting to do these steps which, if that happens, I will now consider to be a matter of negligence, not accident.

A more subtle point, also made by Tycer in the Front Sight thread, is that in a crisis (or gun battle) your training is everything.  If you are lucky (according to our range instructor) roughly 50% of what you trained up to will be used in that moment.  Meaning about half of what you learned will go right out the window.

How good is your other 50%?  That's the point of always reholstering your weapon the exact same way, always loading and unloading the exact same way, etc.  It's to cement these basic building blocks to the point that they are retained and used because those are the only way you do these things.  There is no bin of available methods and practices to rummage through.  

If people really want to become prepared they have to practice on their preps.  Period.  First to cement the procedures into place, and second to find out where the weak points are.  I know I need to do a lot more of this myself, and that's what the PP skills events/experiences are designed to do.

As to the second bullet point above, a really important point was made that the mental and emotional toll was far higher than anticipated by the author.  It's important to know this going in, and to learn ways of managing stress and being able to self-soothe and reset your internal body responses at will.  Those who can do this best will fare the best.  Emotional resilience is perhaps the most critical. 

During training, the Navy Seals (and other branch operators) for example put themselves into extremely high stress situations to push their minds and their bodies to the very edge and then operate from there.

I live a super comfortable life.  I keep stress out of it as much as possible.  I have a nagging fear that I will be unpleasantly surprised by how I operate under sustained stress and lack of proper sleep, nutrition, or down time.  Honestly, I am probably best prepared for what we might call a 'gentleman's crisis.'  

Again, this is where the PP skills series comes in.  For those that want to up their game, and find out the areas where they can "pre-adapt" rather than on the fly, we'll be delighted to arrange and then share in those experiences as equal and eager participants.

msnrochny's picture
msnrochny
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
Joined: Nov 4 2010
Posts: 65
Want To Collect Some Really Interesting Data?

Chris -

Brainstorming here.  What if you and Adam set a date in the not too distant future for a Peak Prosperity emergency trial?  As an example, on January 15th, 2019 those that want to participate in the trial, agree to shut off their electricity and water for 3 days.  Maybe transportation (in the form of our automobiles) is also taken off the table.

After the lights and water come back on, we collect the stories - I.e., what worked, what didn’t, and the emotional impact of living for a short period this way.  This would simulate a “gentleman’s emergency” (since we’d all know it’s coming and could be about as ready as you can be, but for those living in colder parts, it would definitely be a laboratory for learning and collecting some wisdom.  Perhaps you and Adam could have a questionnaire for accumulating information, as well as the more interesting stories that such an exercise would likely generate.

Depending on how many participated (I suspect PP readers are pretty game for a challenge), you might have a nice sized sample with information that when tabulated and shared, could be useful to all.

Barnbuilder's picture
Barnbuilder
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Posts: 103
Great idea being done yearly now

You are absolutelty on target on testing your set up and resilience.  AMRRON does a T-REX exercise every summer. T-REX stands for TEOTWAWKI readiness exercise. the end of the world as we know it.  So on a scheduled Friday around mid afternoon you turn off your main breaker for grid power, your cell phone and your ISP.  You only use your existing power be it battery back up or solar, your water that you have stored or that you can pump by hand or with alternate energy, and you cook your food without any grid based means. No TV, Radio, Cell Phones, Land lines, Internet at all until Sunday afternoon.  No commo except what you monitor or transmit over your radio equipment.  The exercise is to simulate a total grid down situation.  Only for a very short weekend but we have been doing it for the past few years and it really really shows you where your plans or equipment are not up to the job.  Good practice for anyone trying to get ready for an unstable or chaotic situation. It can also be a nice change to get away from the 24 hour news cycle for a couple days and play board games at night with your family or read a good book with candlelight.

MGRS's picture
MGRS
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Posts: 12
Battery strategy

I've seen battery (AA, AAA etc) failure come up a couple of times in this and other posts.  Here's my strategy that has worked well for years, including in demanding environments where life and expensive property may depend on your batteries being good when you need them.  

Keep the batteries out of everything important/expensive when it's going to sit for longer than a week or two.  Alkaline batteries (regular Duracell, Energizer, etc) leak.  Other battery chemistries are less likely to.  So definitely no alkalines in devices that are going to sit on a shelf, however, I'll often keep the batteries in the box with the device so there are some ready to go. 

1) Eneloop NiMH rechargeables for regular use.  They're rechargeable.  Well worth the investment.  I have lots.  Will hold 80% of their charge for years.  You get over a thousand recharge cycles out of them (years of use).  I'd recommend a smart charger if you're really going to invest in a bunch.  There are also USB and DC chargers available, which is nice from a resiliency standpoint.  I've had one leak in about 5 years of using them, but it didn't make a device-ruining mess.  It just got a bit wet-looking and discolored and quit working.

2)  Energizer Ultimate Lithium AA/AAA:  These are for devices that absolutely have to work.  Superior high/low temperature performance.  10 year shelf life.  Lowest leak probability.  If you have to store something with batteries in it, these are the ones.  They're more expensive, so I usually keep some regular Energizer/Duracell batteries nearby that I can swap in to conserve these for actual emergencies.

3)  Regular alkaline AA/AAA Duracell/Energizer/Rayovac: For everything else.  Disposable, reasonably cost effective, recycleable.  I use these when I'm going somewhere that I might lose my Eneloops.  Relatively high leak probability, so they don't go into devices for more than a week. 

4)  CR-123 Lithium batteries (Surefire, etc): For weapon lights, etc.  Similar chemistry and usage constraints as the #2 Energizer Ultimate Lithium.  I'll leave them in weapon lights and stuff that need to work at a moment's notice, but pull them out of anything that's going onto a shelf or gun safe.  10 year shelf life, low leak probability. 

 

AKGrannyWGrit's picture
AKGrannyWGrit
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Posts: 498
What Time Is It

Mohammed Mast's picture
Mohammed Mast
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Posts: 198
Paradigm

I found the part of the post rather interesting. I have been a long time very sporadic visitor. I have found the incessant doom and gloom too depressing to be very regular. I don't necessarily share the entire paradigm.

In reading the above post I was struck by the following. "Here at PeakProsperity.com, we've been vocally warning about the high risk of another global financial crisis on par with (or worse than) that seen in 2008.

Quite honestly, we've been warning about this for a long while, as markets have powered higher. While that's been very frustrating to endure, we see the market's manic melt-up as further reason to worry -- as the fall from today's over-extended heights will be that much more painful."

Markets powering higher are frustrating to endure? Really? it sounds like a good opportunity to make some money so you could buy some batteries. I don;t know whether there was any advice to buy equities when the Dow got into the 5000 range but now that it is well over 26000 it seems that that would have been a valuable bit of foreknowledge to have. Predicting another crash for ten years and advising  buying gold while missing the cryptocurrency revolution seems to call into question a good part of this sites paradigm.

Of course everyone picks there own poison and frames of reference but I for one am glad that I have diversified my information sources

Wendal's picture
Wendal
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
Joined: Nov 23 2013
Posts: 32
Bacteria analogy

Suzuki borrows his analogy from Prof. Albert Bartlett, as seen at the 22 minute mark in this video from the early 2000's ...

As Chris mentions in his Crash Course, his "magic drop" analogy was inspired by Prof. Bartlett as well.

Bartlett effectively destroys the laughable declarations of various economic "experts", journalists and politicians throughout his hour+ long lecture.

Snydeman's picture
Snydeman
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Feb 6 2013
Posts: 591
Predictions and paradigms
Mohammed Mast wrote:

I found the part of the post rather interesting. I have been a long time very sporadic visitor. I have found the incessant doom and gloom too depressing to be very regular. I don't necessarily share the entire paradigm.

Good. It's helpful to have counter-voices on the site as well, so long as there's still respect and an avoidance of name-calling and the like. You shouldn't accept the entire paradigm in any case, especially without checking the facts and data yourself.

Mohammed Mast wrote:

Markets powering higher are frustrating to endure? Really? it sounds like a good opportunity to make some money so you could buy some batteries. I don;t know whether there was any advice to buy equities when the Dow got into the 5000 range but now that it is well over 26000 it seems that that would have been a valuable bit of foreknowledge to have.

Sure, if you've moved your equities into cash and used that cash to buy stuff, and assuming you invested in the right sectors/companies back in '08, and assuming you knew that was the bottom. I don't recall Chris or anyone advising not to invest, or to cash out now either, but rather I see them advising that now might be a good time to "take profits" and keep some cash on the sidelines, as well as prepare for the mathematical facts to manifest themselves in our energy, environment, and economy. You're creating a false sense of what Chris and Adam (et al) have been saying, in my opinion.

Mohammed Mast wrote:

Predicting another crash for ten years and advising  buying gold while missing the cryptocurrency revolution seems to call into question a good part of this sites paradigm.

First off, the cryptocurrency revolution is far from established fact as much as it seems to be smoke and mirrors, and it has spilled as much blood as it has generated wealth, so that's a dubious assertion at best. Second, no one ever gave a firm date for a crash...the site has always been about giving the trends, the patterns, and the data and then positing that the "next 20 years will be very different from the previous 20." Since we're only ten years in, you have a decade before you can call PP's overall prediction invalid. You're saying that because the warnings of a dire future haven't come to pass ten years into a 20-year prediction, Chris and Adam are wrong? I dunno, I see the predictions playing out as we speak.

 

Of course, I expect you'll come back and admit the site had a good point if and when the problems associated with the 3Es come to pass, right?

Mohammed Mast wrote:

Of course everyone picks there own poison and frames of reference but I for one am glad that I have diversified my information sources

Oh heck, that's good advice for anyone, and I'm pretty sure most PP members would advocate for the same. Chris himself would probably /boggle if someone told him they "buy into" everything, without question or fact checking, that is posted or said here. They outright invite members of PP to counter things with other data, so this is hardly an echo chamber unwilling to consider new ideas, facts, or details as they come to light.

 

Stay skeptical, my friend, but be careful stating the assertions of the site are all wrong just because it hasn't happened yet. The signs of impending collapse across multiple vectors of the modern world are readily apparent to me, at least. Still, I, like you, consider PeakProsperity as one among many sites I vist frequently, and the collective stories and data help me create my own interpretations and visions of the present and the future. 

 

 

Wendal's picture
Wendal
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
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Posts: 32
David Suzuki

David Suzuki has a rather insightful perspective on main stream economics...

Mohammed Mast's picture
Mohammed Mast
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Posts: 198
Sorry

Sorry you missed my points.

Snydeman's picture
Snydeman
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Feb 6 2013
Posts: 591
whoops
Mohammed Mast wrote:

Sorry you missed my points.

 

ok. Which ones specifically?

newsbuoy's picture
newsbuoy
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Dec 10 2013
Posts: 324
Prepare Wince Repeat

The Book of Changes--I Ching in Chinese--is unquestionably one of the most important books in the world's literature. I thought I would be cheeky and make a reference to "Perserverance furthers" and decided to look it up in my copy, which I haven't opened in over 10 years. After consulting the ToC, and before reaching the desired page, I thumbed open to a page which read as follows:

36. Ming I / Darkening of the Light

above K'UN The Receptive, Earth
below LI The Clinging, Fire

Here the sun has sunk under the earth and is therefore darkened. The name of the hexagram means literally "wounding of the bright"; hence the individual lines contain frequent references to wounding. The situation is the exact opposite of that in the foregoing hexagram. In the latter a wise man at the head of affairs has able helpers, and in company with them makes progress; here a man of dark nature is in a position of authority and brings harm to the wise and able man.

Indeed, the Oracle is always present and does not care about technique or ritual. Speaking to us constantly, if we have the ability listen.

cmartenson's picture
cmartenson
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Jun 7 2007
Posts: 5968
A re-re-re-re-clarification
Snydeman wrote:
Mohammed Mast wrote:

Markets powering higher are frustrating to endure? Really? it sounds like a good opportunity to make some money so you could buy some batteries. I don;t know whether there was any advice to buy equities when the Dow got into the 5000 range but now that it is well over 26000 it seems that that would have been a valuable bit of foreknowledge to have.

Sure, if you've moved your equities into cash and used that cash to buy stuff, and assuming you invested in the right sectors/companies back in '08, and assuming you knew that was the bottom. I don't recall Chris or anyone advising not to invest, or to cash out now either, but rather I see them advising that now might be a good time to "take profits" and keep some cash on the sidelines, as well as prepare for the mathematical facts to manifest themselves in our energy, environment, and economy. You're creating a false sense of what Chris and Adam (et al) have been saying, in my opinion.

To be crystal clear, again, this site is not and has never been about giving trading advice, nor have we ever advocated for trying to market time as to when to buy or sell equities.

We provide education and information.

We trust that our readers are intelligent and widely read and that they will make their own decisions.

I have pointed out that the "fingers of instability" are growing daily and that a catastrophic slump in 'the markets' is a non-zero possibility that prudent adults should take into consideration when positioning their stored paper wealth.

I understand that some people are frustrated with this position of mine/ours and would prefer that we gave crisp, always correct direction on when to buy or sell this or that.  But it's not what we do.  We're both perfectly happy to tell what we are personally doing, but again that's for the purpose of education and illumination, not trading advice.  

Further, I know that the unease is building and that more and more drive-by-shooters will come by to vent their displeasure aiming at whatever is handy. I/we accept that this will happen here at PP aimed at Adam and myself who have bothered to build and maintain both this site and nominal positions of leadership in telling a tale that few want to hear.  A few stray bullets sent our way is just part of the territory.

What I really do not personally enjoy, and this is my own trigger, is that those doing the drive by shootings usually do so by wildly and badly mischaracterizing this site and its positions on things.  

For MMast I would note that on the subject of cryptocurrencies we interviewed one of the key architects of Bitcoin back in 2013 trusting that our listeners could/would make up their own minds about that emergent technology.  Many did and did so successfully.  Yay!  Good for them.  And we held several crypto webinars seeking to educate and inform.  To then say that we "missed the cryptocurrency revolution" is both inaccurate and wrong.

Similarly, this site holds one of the very best climate change threads/forums to be found anywhere and several recent comments by veteran drive-by-shooters attempted to mischaracterize this site as "banning the topic of climate change" or other such nonsense.  Again, this is both inaccurate and wrong.

This is just part of the territory.  People who are carrying internal strain will sometimes lash out, inappropriately and carelessly, in their attempt to feel better inside.

This will be showing up in y/our personal lives more and more too as things continue to spiral out of control.  The unease builds.  Rats in a cage will pick on each other and fight the wrong battles.  They can't diagnose the true source of the shocks they are experiencing, and so they lash out. 

Unfortunate, but just part of the landscape.  

It doesn't slow Adam or I down in the slightest.  We just keep moving forward.  What else is left to do?

newsbuoy's picture
newsbuoy
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
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Posts: 324
Major Oversight

I just realized that nowhere in here have you mentioned running out of coffee! That's a major whole in my prep strat. Heading out to Whole Amazon Market right now to get a few pounds of bean.

Must have COFFEE in good supply.

 

trbickle's picture
trbickle
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Posts: 4
coffee for prep

Leave it to coffee to lure me into my first ever internet comment.  I had been tinkering with coffee on the prep supply for a bit and after testing out manual grinders, etc., I realized the best option was to get high-end instant coffee (an oxymoron?).  I figured in a grid down scenario or worse, just having something hot, black, and caffeinated would do just fine, even if I'm a coffee snob regularly.  You also save on storage (no grinder or beans, even if they are green beans).  Instant has a very good shelf life.  Wholefoods brand is okay, but I've stocked a few tins of four sigmatic instant mushroom coffee; it doesn't taste at all like mushrooms but you then get your coffee fix as well as some other key nutrients.  Mount Hagen is a close runner-up that whole foods stocks.

cmartenson's picture
cmartenson
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Posts: 5968
Welcome!
trbickle wrote:

Leave it to coffee to lure me into my first ever internet comment.  I had been tinkering with coffee on the prep supply for a bit and after testing out manual grinders, etc., I realized the best option was to get high-end instant coffee (an oxymoron?).  I figured in a grid down scenario or worse, just having something hot, black, and caffeinated would do just fine, even if I'm a coffee snob regularly.  You also save on storage (no grinder or beans, even if they are green beans).  Instant has a very good shelf life.  Wholefoods brand is okay, but I've stocked a few tins of four sigmatic instant mushroom coffee; it doesn't taste at all like mushrooms but you then get your coffee fix as well as some other key nutrients.  Mount Hagen is a close runner-up that whole foods stocks.

First, welcome!  Whatever gets you involved, is the perfect place to start.  :)

Second, I think that instant coffee is a great idea.  I assume it stores for practically ever, especially of packed in a moisture and oxygen proof packaging.

The other option is to get green (unroasted) coffee beans as they will keep for at least two years, but (informally) I've heard far longer than that.  Here's one source (that sells coffee, so they are presumably telling a tale on the short end of the spectrum, or only giving advice for a sellable, high quality product?)

How long can unroasted beans be stored?

What is the optimum storage condition (type of container, temperature/humidity etc)?

In cool, dry conditions, green beans can be stored up to two years in a burlap bag. Ideal storage conditions for green coffee are 55 to 80 degrees Farenheit, with ambient humidity 60%-75% (to maintain 10-12% bean humidity). Burlap (or cotton) bags are used when there are humidity changes, so that the coffee can "breathe". Essentially, green coffees stays best in conditions that people would also like to sleep in.

(Source)

So just store them under your bed, and you should be good to go!~. :)

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thc0655
Status: Diamond Member (Online)
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Posts: 1707
Travis, is that you?

Welcome! Are you on your meds?  Interested in selling that .44 magnum?  Iris says "hi."

 

Tycer's picture
Tycer
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Posts: 617
I went the green route. Have

I went the green route. Have about a years supply at my current rate of consumption. The grinder is an early 1900s I rebuilt. As good as a modern burr grinder. As a nice side result, I get to drink coffee roasted to my specifications. I started this in 2009 and have become somewhat of a coffee snob.

trbickle's picture
trbickle
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Indeed.  A very old old

Indeed.  A very old old moniker I started using in high school for my first email account (hotmail)...never been called out before.

trbickle's picture
trbickle
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Posts: 4
I'm jealous of the green bean

I'm jealous of the green bean route.

If you have the ability to roast then green is the route to go...I've heard green beans lasting 10 + years in burlap (which you can snag for free at your local coffe shop).  

Grover's picture
Grover
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Posts: 878
Does Life Really Exist Without Coffee ???

Roasting coffee is a fun hobby that can produce wonderful coffee - better than at your favorite coffee shop for a whole lot less. I figure that I can make a double 16 oz. latte in less than 10 minutes for under a buck. (Most of that time is warm up time.) Coffee shops want $3 - $5+ for the same basic concoction and then want tax and a tip on top of it. Then, there is the added time and expense of getting to your favorite shop.

Just like any other hobby, it is easy to get carried away. You can start with something as simple as a flat bottomed pan on the stove as noted here: https://ineedcoffee.com/roasting-coffee-in-a-frying-pan/. It gets really smoky, so I'd rather roast outdoors on a propane burner. Getting a uniform roast requires lots of continuous stirring! Another low cost method is to use an air popcorn popper http://www.stepbystep.com/how-to-roast-coffee-in-a-popcorn-popper-90053/. (I've heard that newer air poppers have a safety device that prevents the air from getting hot enough to roast coffee. Do some research before heading down this path.)

There are many different types of roasters on the market and the prices range all over the board. I bought a 4 lb. roaster from https://www.rkdrums.com/ 16+ years ago and put it on a dedicated cheap propane BBQ. I've roasted nearly 1,000 lb. of green beans in it so far. It is still working great! I chose this unit because it can be operated over any sufficient heat source - in a propane BBQ, over an open fire (hardwood only,) charcoal, rocket stove, etc. I have an electric motor to rotate the cylinder, but if the power dies, I can rotate it manually.

I doubt that I've kept green coffee beans much longer than a year, but I haven't noticed much difference between the "fresh" ones and the older ones. Once the beans are roasted, there is a definite staleness factor for whole beans after about 2 weeks. Once ground, the staleness kicks in quickly. Of course, if you only buy store-bought pre-ground coffee, you'll never know the difference. It is akin to the difference between fine wine and swillable "industrial" wine. Hmmmm. Am I a coffee snob?

Grover

Mohammed Mast's picture
Mohammed Mast
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Posts: 198
Triggered

Getting "triggered" is certainly an apt description since you just got back from weapons training. I fully expected the defensive stance. There is absolutely no denying thye fact that you and many here are "gold bugs" Your banner gives ample proof of that. You have been touting pm's since the beginning. Facts easily documented should one have the desire to do so.

The passage I quoted is quite a shining example of your site's bias. Having to endure a run up of over 21000 in the Dow is considered a problem then that clearly exposes some blind spots and prejudices here. That reads as it is frustrating because despite our best analysis that there is another crash coming it has not happened. Timing the market is not possible unless you are Goldman or JP. That said that run up has taken place over almost 10 years.

Calling my comments "drive by" is an ad hom which I find somewhar surprising. I expect better from you. I read your paper "The end of money" I believe in late 07. I found it fascinating and started reading your site when you had just released chapter three of the Crash Course. Having read much on the site until about late 09 your dismissive ad hom is misplaced. I quit reading regularly because frankly my mental health was being impacted by the incessant focus on "bad news" I dropped in periodically over the years but nothing changed to keep me regular.

That changed when there were some interesting discussions on cryptos. I then joined so that I could participate. I participate  on other sites devoted to cryptos and found the discussion here not up to par. Bitcoin went live in Jan 09 (almost 10 years) so yes if you first addressed  it 5 years ago you were late to the party. That is a fact of your own admission.. My point is that your focus kept you from getting the crypto revolution earlier. My opinion based on observation.

Clearly this is your site and you focus on what you wish to focus on. Also clearly criticism is not welcome here as evidenced by your somewhat insulting response. It is also evidenced by your treatment of Doug another long time member. 

Well as for timing the Dow is currently down 600 so there will be great joy here I am sure.

 

 

Snydeman's picture
Snydeman
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Posts: 591
Joy?

Joy? Are you  insane? NO ONE HERE wants this to come to pass. I think it is safe to say that every regular on this site would rather be living in different times.

 

Don’t confuse understanding and acceptance of what is, and what must come to pass, as celebration of the same.

 

I for one do not want to live through this. I have two beautiful young kids who will suffer far more than I will, so please understand that I find no joy in this.

 

 

sand_puppy's picture
sand_puppy
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Posts: 2033
After hours markets continue to tumble

I thought the market close ended today's supense.  Not so!

Bond ETF outflows for this week are high.

Dow and Nasdaq continue to dive.

Mark_BC's picture
Mark_BC
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Posts: 522
Mohammed Mast wrote: Markets
Mohammed Mast wrote:

Markets powering higher are frustrating to endure? Really? it sounds like a good opportunity to make some money so you could buy some batteries. I don;t know whether there was any advice to buy equities when the Dow got into the 5000 range but now that it is well over 26000 it seems that that would have been a valuable bit of foreknowledge to have. Predicting another crash for ten years and advising  buying gold while missing the cryptocurrency revolution seems to call into question a good part of this sites paradigm.

Of course everyone picks there own poison and frames of reference but I for one am glad that I have diversified my information sources

This is something I was pondering the other day; how if I had stayed in the stock market even just a bit, I would have come out ahead. I don't blame PP or other such sites for this situation; I made my own decisions. If I recall correctly PP has always advocated diversifying your investments with precious metals. I don't recall them ever advising to divest all your stocks. Years ago I decided that the risk of a stock market crash was too much to take and I got completely out of it -- my loss. My investments have since done virtually nothing over those years. On an inflation basis, they have gone down. If I had kept 1/2 in the stock market and 1/2 in PM's, I would have done quite well. But hindsight is always 20/20.

And it's only a few stocks that have gone sky high. How would you have been abe to predict which ones went up (the chosen few by the bankers) and which ones tanked? And Bitcoin had been going up a long time, so it would have been easy to buy in at any one of the peaks wondering if this was the final peak before the authorities stepped in to squash it. Years ago I thought it was already at its peak, so I didn't get in. Who was to know which was the real peak? In hindsight, you would have known the real peak was in when it got so much public attention and a futures option was created for it. As expected, since then it has languished.

Making money off bubbles is always a timing game (although in restrospect, a fundamental analysis should have revealed the half empty dumpster of sovereign debt the bankers had available to them to fill). Making money off fundamentals is always a waiting game. In the end I am very comfortable that my investments will perform extremely well. The uneasy question is what the world will look like at that time and if I'll even be able to enjoy it. And whether the financial environment at that time will even allow me to benefit from it -- i.e. will punitive taxes or laws be imposed to neuter all of the gains.

So, I fully admit that I have missed out on the better part of a decade's worth of care-free living ignorance as bliss. That's nothing to sneeze at -- the best years of my life. I could have thrown my money into Amazon or Tesla (I was a Tesla fanboy back when hardly anyone knew what they were -- a year before they even came out with the Roadster). I could have parked my money there while sailing around the world like I have always wanted to do. I didn't and that was my decision. But I also could have sailed around the world and hit a reef and sunk it and drowned. You never know.

What I and others did not account for is the extreme degree to which the markets could be electronically manipulated. The deflationists would always be warning that the markets could crash because of "such and such" historical rule or market check. But the bankers found ways to change the system so that those previous rules didn't apply anymore and a lasting crash was always avoided. I had a sneaky suspicion that they would do this back then but I didn't act on it. What they did was pile all the toxic debt into sovereign debt (taxpayers) -- the last place where there was still room for debt to grow and retain credibility / confidence in the market. That is what they did and it bought them 10 years. Now that this last dumpster for debt dumping has been exhausted, there is nowhere else for them to go so we will see the much anticipated crash in the near future.

Yes, the doom and gloom has been tiring and draining and has taken its toll on my outlook. But I am the kind of person who doesn't run away from the truth and that's what I have chosen to pursue.

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chipshot
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Posts: 61
Preparing For the Reactions of Others

Wonder if this might be the biggest x-factor that messes up even the most prepared preppers? 

At some point life is likely get way more difficult than most Americans are accustomed to, and it could happen almost overnight.  The shock, anger, angst, desperation...reactions are likely to be anything but calm and reasoned.  With so many unprepared  (mentally and physically) and armed to the teeth, hard to envision a scenerio of co-operation or rational behavior dominating the landscape. 

Prep on if it gives you peace of mind, but I'm afraid we've procrastined enough on addressing the many unsustainable facets of our way of living that if the bottom falls out  (whether environmentally, financially, economically, or fossil-fuel dependence)  no amount of preparation will make life worth living.

I know that's dark, and really hope it turns out to be wrong, but let's face it, humanity is not going to solve overpopulation, climate change, our unsustainable economy, or way over leveraged financial system.  Whether the fallout is slow and gradual or sudden, time will tell.

Tude's picture
Tude
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Posts: 38
Mark_BC wrote: This is
Mark_BC wrote:

This is something I was pondering the other day; how if I had stayed in the stock market even just a bit, I would have come out ahead.

Or you can be happy that you, like I, didn't support this sickening system that is destroying this planet and the people on it.

I once saw a video of Michael Ruppert saying the one thing you should do for your children, or the next generation, is to NOT put a dime in the stock market. Starve the beast. You'll feel better on your death bed.

Snydeman's picture
Snydeman
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Feb 6 2013
Posts: 591
Well

We went through our pantry tonight and looked at what canned goods we are low on, with the intent of hitting the store this weekend. The garden is still a mess,but recoverable.

 

Settle your mares, I think. We have arrived.

lessgovtnow's picture
lessgovtnow
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Posts: 1
Working off What Tude Said

Working off what Tude said, since public companies want increasing profits quarterly, wouldn’t buying any share equate to voting “yes” to infinite growth?

What else could you do with your financial capital? I’m guessing invest it locally. Or exchange it for other critically-lacking forms of capital. Are there other options?

agitating prop's picture
agitating prop
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Posts: 864
Mohammed Mast wrote:Getting
Mohammed Mast wrote:

Getting "triggered" is certainly an apt description since you just got back from weapons training. I fully expected the defensive stance. There is absolutely no denying thye fact that you and many here are "gold bugs" Your banner gives ample proof of that. You have been touting pm's since the beginning. Facts easily documented should one have the desire to do so.

The passage I quoted is quite a shining example of your site's bias. Having to endure a run up of over 21000 in the Dow is considered a problem then that clearly exposes some blind spots and prejudices here. That reads as it is frustrating because despite our best analysis that there is another crash coming it has not happened. Timing the market is not possible unless you are Goldman or JP. That said that run up has taken place over almost 10 years.

Calling my comments "drive by" is an ad hom which I find somewhar surprising. I expect better from you. I read your paper "The end of money" I believe in late 07. I found it fascinating and started reading your site when you had just released chapter three of the Crash Course. Having read much on the site until about late 09 your dismissive ad hom is misplaced. I quit reading regularly because frankly my mental health was being impacted by the incessant focus on "bad news" I dropped in periodically over the years but nothing changed to keep me regular.

That changed when there were some interesting discussions on cryptos. I then joined so that I could participate. I participate  on other sites devoted to cryptos and found the discussion here not up to par. Bitcoin went live in Jan 09 (almost 10 years) so yes if you first addressed  it 5 years ago you were late to the party. That is a fact of your own admission.. My point is that your focus kept you from getting the crypto revolution earlier. My opinion based on observation.

Clearly this is your site and you focus on what you wish to focus on. Also clearly criticism is not welcome here as evidenced by your somewhat insulting response. It is also evidenced by your treatment of Doug another long time member. 

Well as for timing the Dow is currently down 600 so there will be great joy here I am sure.

 

 

 

 

"nothing changed to keep me regular."

Chris and Adam's site isn't usually prescribed for that problem. Perhaps a dose of Metamucil or a glance at Asian markets at the moment might work.  Good luck!

 

 

David Allan's picture
David Allan
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Posts: 109
Snydeman you're a bigger man than I

Snydeman wrote "Joy? Are you  insane? NO ONE HERE wants this to come to pass. I think it is safe to say that every regular on this site would rather be living in different times.

Don’t confuse understanding and acceptance of what is, and what must come to pass, as celebration of the same.'

In terms of the bigger picture I completely share your sentiments. But with regard to a potential stock market crash I have to admit I will take considerable pleasure when various acquaintances and family get shocked in to re-evaluating what is actually going on.

Many simplistic thinkers rubbish the problem of growth and its inherent limits by citing the booming stockmarket. There's nothing like a nasty financial shock to make people start to question the bigger context of what is actually happening

Snydeman's picture
Snydeman
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
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Posts: 591
David Allan wrote: In terms
David Allan wrote:

In terms of the bigger picture I completely share your sentiments. But with regard to a potential stock market crash I have to admit I will take considerable pleasure when various acquaintances and family get shocked in to re-evaluating what is actually going on.

Many simplistic thinkers rubbish the problem of growth and its inherent limits by citing the booming stockmarket. There's nothing like a nasty financial shock to make people start to question the bigger context of what is actually happening

I think that's different, though. That's the joy of seeing everyone who blindly ignored mathematical certainties and poo-pooed the warnings get the shock of having been wrong all along. That, sure, I'll take joy in, right up until civil and economic breakdown hits and shit gets violent and bloody. That is the point where we all lose.

 

But I get your point, and it is well-made. =)

 

-S

Snydeman's picture
Snydeman
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Posts: 591
cmartenson wrote:This will
cmartenson wrote:

This will be showing up in y/our personal lives more and more too as things continue to spiral out of control.  The unease builds.  Rats in a cage will pick on each other and fight the wrong battles.  They can't diagnose the true source of the shocks they are experiencing, and so they lash out. 

Yesterday at the lunch table, the typical conversations about things that really don't matter in the bigger scheme turned into a discussion of economics, the markets, etc. When some peers began doing the "It'll all be alright, because we believe!" schtick, I decided to go all in and quote multiple statistics and facts (about the environment, debt levels, shale oil production, etc) that show that, no, in fact, things will not just be "alright" without massive and concerted action being taken to actually solve the problems. One peer started back in with blind optimism, to which I responded that "Hope" wouldn't power our devices, vehicles, or infrastructure. There was silence for a good two minutes as everyone realized I'm not going to convert back over to the Church of Optimistic Faith and mindlessly ignore the warning signs closing in all around us. I felt momentarily like a leper. As I got up to leave, one particularly annoying Hopium peddler said under her breath, "Thanks for cheering us all up. Sheesh!"

 

I looked her straight in the eye and retorted: "If you don't want hard truths, I'd advise you not to talk to me." I walked away knowing I had just lost a lot of social capital with people at the table. Later on, when two teachers who had been at the table told me one-on-one that they agreed with me and were also troubled by the trends, I realized that these conversations need to happen, no matter the labels some people put on us for doing so.

 

Keep pushing the message of the 3Es, if for no other reason than to tell people "I told you so!" as you turn them away from your fully-prepped homestead after the SHTF.

sand_puppy's picture
sand_puppy
Status: Diamond Member (Online)
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Posts: 2033
European Markets Fall 2%, US Market Level

Quite a difference between the US and Europe today.

Uncletommy's picture
Uncletommy
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: May 3 2014
Posts: 633
Good investments?

Not to be too repetitive, I stick with what I can depend on! This is one of many growth stocks.

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 3 2008
Posts: 5683
trolled

Markets powering higher are frustrating to endure? Really? it sounds like a good opportunity to make some money so you could buy some batteries. I don;t know whether there was any advice to buy equities when the Dow got into the 5000 range but now that it is well over 26000 it seems that that would have been a valuable bit of foreknowledge to have.

Some posters come to contribute materially to our group.  Others come to extract emotional responses.  Such people I call "trolls" even if they appear literate, well-read, and knowledgeable, because if their pattern of "contribution" appears to involve repeated attempts to extract an emotional response from the people here, that's trolling.

Why do people do this?  I have no idea.  Best I can conclude is, some people are just instigators.  They love the emotional response they get.  I'm guessing this gives them a dopamine hit just like facebook users get when they receive a "like" on some bit of content they've contributed.

There are all kinds of people out there in the world.  Once a troll has revealed himself, the only question that remains is, do you want to give the troll a dopamine hit?  Or not?

Michael_Rudmin's picture
Michael_Rudmin
Status: Platinum Member (Online)
Joined: Jun 25 2014
Posts: 919
Dave, you seem to be presuming evil here.

Who knows, maybe you're even right.

But we all get our dopamine hits (mine come very seldom, but not for want of trying).

I actually found mohommad's comments to be valuable, within a limited range. He's also a market player, and all these comments diversify the advice I hear.

What happened to Mark BC? I don't do bitcoin, but I found his commentary also to be genuine, also to be valuable in a limited elliott-awareness way.

Point being, I ended up selling my pms just before this breakout, but buying some back... I make some mistakss, but I'm trying. problem is, there's channels, and we have to see whether a channel breaks. Or the channel continues.

So technically, I think I was right. But the dopamine is NOT confirming. Blech. Go ahead and pass the dopamine to mohommed, would you? The biscuits are kindof dry.

VeganDB12's picture
VeganDB12
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Jul 18 2008
Posts: 756
Monday Morning Quarter Backs

My question on this topic is:

Since you have such insight into the markets, rather than gloating about OPM's not invested vs your gains, what would you have these same people do now? And where were you 10 years ago?

I am no financial genius and appreciate the outrage shown by intelligent investors like Barry Ritholtz who condemn those who jumped out of the market at the bottom, but it seems cruel to me to rub people's noses in it when they have no recorurse, after the fact, especially when the nose rubber has made a bucket load of money in the market. Maybe that is what Dave is referring to here. I don't know.

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 3 2008
Posts: 5683
patterns

MR-

Dave, you seem to be presuming evil here.

I assess patterns of behavior.  If someone acts in a certain way half a dozen times, I conclude it's not an accident or simply bad mood.  Is that "presuming evil?"  It is more like an assumption that an object in motion will tend to stay in motion.  A thief, most likely, will continue to steal.

Regarding your gold trades - trading is really hard, mostly because we are all emotional creatures - yes even us engineers - and emotions wreak havoc on trading.  Fear causes you to sell, greed causes you to buy, and that happens at exactly the wrong times.  I can't count the number of times, intraday, I've sold at the very moment that marks the very low of whatever that instrument did that day.  Its uncanny.  Much of the time - now - I can feel that urge to sell, and say to myself, "well now, that probably marks the low.  Do you really want to sell the low again?"  Mostly that works, because I laugh at myself and that relieves the tension.

I find it really helps if I don't care about the thing I'm trading.

I find it really hurts if I'm trying to prove how good or clever I am by executing this trade.

The less ego you have about it all, the better you will do.

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