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Bitcoin/Cryptocurrency Webinar -- Jan 7th @ Noon EST

Everything you wanted to know but were afraid to ask
Tuesday, December 26, 2017, 6:52 PM

IMPORTANT NOTICE

The live version of this webinar took place on Jan 7, 2018. It was excellent.

To purchase access to the replay video of the event for $50, click the blue button below:

 

The cryptocurrency space is on fire.

Across the board, Bitcoin and its digital currency brethren have experienced mind-boggling returns over 2017 -- making fortunes for those who invested in the space just a few short months ago.

Looking at Bitcoin alone, the ferocious pace of its rise has now surpassed that of the largest bubbles in recorded history:

What's going on here?

Is this the most spectacular mania the world has ever seen? Is this all going to end in tears?

Or are the crypto-devotionists right? Is this the emergence of a new paradigm, one that will revolutionize commerce as we know it -- and is only just getting started?

If you're wrestling with these questions, or more fundamental ones like...

  • What the heck is the "blockchain"?
  • Why would anyone want to own a digital currency when it's not backed by anything?
  • How do I purchase and store cryptocurrency?
  • How does one determine "fair value" for a digital currency?
  • Is now a good time to buy? (or sell?)
  • What will be the big trends to drive the evolution of the crypto market from here?

...then you've got a lot of company. We've been inundated with requests for a webinar to de-mystify the cryptocurrencies and help both newbies and current coinholders alike understand where the space is headed from here.

Which is why we've lined up Peak Prosperity resident crypto expert Mark Rees to offer exactly these insights. He and Chris will roll up their sleeves to dive deep into a highly-interactive discussion of all things crypto in our upcoming webinar on Sunday January 7, 2018 at noon EST/9am PST.

The full event, which costs $50 (aka 0.003 Bitcoin) to attend, will last about an hour and half, and draw heavily from audience Q&A. So bring your most pressing questions -- you'll be able to ask them directly to Mark and Chris.

To register for the event, click the blue button below:

Post-Webinar Playback

A video recording of the webinar will be made available to participants after the webinar is over. That means there's no reason to worry if you can't make the live event, or need to skip out on parts of it due to meetings or other obligations. You'll be able to re-watch the webinar as much as you like.

So if this interests you, register now by clicking the big blue button below:

We've invested in this new webinar platform in order to enable us to produce more of these 'gatherings of great thinkers' for you in the future. We have great hopes for this new webinar platform, but how much we use it in the future will be a direct function of how many people like and attend these live events. So if you want more of these, please participate!

And if there are other speakers you'd particularly like to see in a future webinar, please let us know by contacting us here.

__________________________________________________________________________

What To Expect: Feedback From Past Webinars

If you haven't yet participated in a Peak Prosperity webinar, here's what you can expect.

Our earlier The End Of Money webinar brought together David Stockman, Axel Merk, and G. Edward Griffin -- several of the world's top experts on the central banking system, world currencies and financial markets.

Moderated by Chris, each speaker shared his latest thoughts on our current economic situation (spoiler alert: they're each very worried), as well as his predictions on what the central banks are most likely to do next -- and what the implications will be.

David Stockman expressed concern that the central banks are very unlikely to be able to inject emergency liquidity to "rescue" the markets the next time a major downturn threatens:

While Axel Merk, fresh from an event where he mingled with past and current Federal Reserve presidents, shared his observation that the Fed is essentially flying blind at this point:

And in our more recent Dangerous Markets webinar, Lance Roberts demonstrated how so much leverage has been taken on that its servicing is increasingly stealing capital that would otherwise go to savings, consumption and productive investment. Going forward, the demands of the debt service will simply result in less and less capital available left over to grow the economy:

Grant Williams then explained why, as financial assets are (supposed to be) valued on future growth prospects, lower forecasted growth must eventually lead to lower asset valuations. Grant calculates that, should the US see another decade of 2% average annual GDP growth (and it has averaged less than that over the past decade), stock prices should be roughly half of what they are today to be considered fairly valued:

Feedback from our webinars to-date has been pleasingly positive. Here's a sampling of the praise received from participants:

"I am inspired and in awe how the speakers effectively take massive macro subject areas and break them down and put into context so those of us not as plugged into the topic can understand"

"Great info. Looking forward to the next one. "

"Chris Martenson is one of the best communicators in the modern world of finance.  As a moderator he can quickly drill down to the most pressing questions people have with often the smartest minds in the business."

"Loved the advice at the end."

"The ability to ask questions to some of the most brilliant minds regarding such topics was worth the price of admission alone! "

We expect this next "Bitcoin/Cryptocurrency" webinar to be just as value-rich, if not even more so, for participants.

Register for it today!

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32 Comments

debu's picture
debu
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 17 2009
Posts: 222
Walled Gardens?

As a long-time member of PP.com I have been dismayed by the recent trend on the site towards offering "premium" content for a fee in addition to the annual membership fee which I have always been more than happy to pay.

The quantity and quality of content at PP.com provided to mere members is bound to be affected negatively as more focus is put into producing pay-per-view webinars on topics that would be of vital interest to virtually all full members of PP.com.

I understand that PP.com is a business and the desire/need to monetize content. I also understand that there are costs involved in producing webinars. Nevertheless, it is hard not to feel that some members are getting cucumbers and others grapes (for a fee).

Not sure what the solution is. Perhaps a "premium" membership at a higher rate with full access to paid webinars?

 

 

Adam Taggart's picture
Adam Taggart
Status: Peak Prosperity Co-founder (Offline)
Joined: May 26 2009
Posts: 2890
Fair Point. Here's Some Helpful Context
debu wrote:

Perhaps a "premium" membership at a higher rate with full access to paid webinars?

Debu -

Interesting idea. You have my word I'll give it serious thought and discuss with Chris.

I understand the point you're making and just want to provide some context that may be helpful.

First off, the new material you've seen us roll out on Peak Prosperity over 2017 (webinars, summits, etc) is an intentional and direct effort to meet the stated needs and wishes of the PP community. We listen hard and seriously to the feedback you all give us about the insights/services/etc folks most want to see more of from us -- and we're doing our best to deliver on our community's hopes and needs from this website.

So now for the context: 2018 will mark the 10th anniversary of The Crash Course. (Hard to believe that much time has gone by already!) When I teamed up with Chris back in 2010, here was the average output of the site, then ChrisMartenson.com:

  • 2-3 free articles per month
  • 1-2 premium articles per month
  • no podcasts, webinars, etc

That's not a lot of output, relatively speaking, compared to the site today.

For those 1-2 premium articles, enrolled members paid $30/mo, $80/qtr or $300/year -- exactly the same prices as we charge today, ten years later. Over the past decade, which has seen the largest increase in money supply (i.e., the official definition of inflation) in US history, we have increased prices by precisely 0%

Now let's look at what enrolled members get today

  • 6-10 free articles per month
  • 5-8 premium articles per month
  • weekly premium Off The Cuff podcasts (with full transcripts)
  • weekly free Featured Voices podcast (with full transcripts)
  • daily gold & silver reports from DaveFairtex (which we pay to have produced)
  • reports from contributing editors, like Charles Hugh Smith (which we pay to have produced)
  • webinars (mixture of free & paid depending on production cost/effort)
  • ability to engage further & deeper via new seminars, summits, event liveblogs, etc
  • vastly better website -- both by performance (uptime, speed, security, etc) & functionality (layout, content, community, groups, wikis, What Should I Do? guide, etc)

Speaking of the website, we're in the process right now of completely rebuilding the back-end. The end result will hopefully be near-transparent to you, but it's a good example of the sort of hugely time-intensive and expensive initiatives that are routinely required to offer the PeakProsperity.com experience to our users at quality -- of which our members are completely unaware (unless something breaks in the process).

Running PeakProsperity.com is still just a 2-man show (with some specific contractor work). But over the past 8 years, we have more than quadrupled the weekly output of written content plus added a prodigious amount of new services and solutions . For example, we've produced over 500+ OTC & FV podcasts, each of which has its own transcript -- which cost us $150-$200 per (this gives you a sense of how the content costs add up). We've increased the number of seminars we offer, launched the webinar platform, written and published The Crash Course and Prosper! books, completely rebuilt & upgraded  the full Crash Course video series, and started up an ambitious travel schedule with the new summits. And somehow done all this without completely alienating our families...

I'm explaining this not to be defensive or to resist your idea of a new price plan that includes all webinars (which appeals to me...perhaps there's an "all webinar access" add-on option we can offer?). I just want to use your question to educate everyone as to the balance Chris and I try to walk with this site.

Specifically, we ask ourselves the following question every week: How can we add more value without increasing the price of enrollment?

We've been able to do that quite well over the past 10 years, IMO. Hopefully you all agree, given how this site's offerings have improved so substantially while pricing has stayed flat. An interesting exercise I play when I think of this is: What other costs in my life have stayed flat for the past decade? (spoiler alert: I can't think of any)

Yes, someday, sadly, we'll have to raise those fees. But I don't want to do that until we have no other choice. I don't think we're there yet.

Debu: I realize your question was asked constructively not critically, and I appreciate that. We will ALWAYS listen to feedback from engaged members like you and do our best to meet as many needs of the majority as we can, affordably.

Hopefully, the above context gives you (and everyone else) a sense of the matrix of nodes we make our business decisions against. You have my word your feedback will receive our respectful consideration amongst them.

cheers,
A

 

New_Life's picture
New_Life
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 18 2011
Posts: 143
$50 Registration fee

Do you accept BTC/ETH? ;)

Adam Taggart's picture
Adam Taggart
Status: Peak Prosperity Co-founder (Offline)
Joined: May 26 2009
Posts: 2890
Sure!
New_Life wrote:

Do you accept BTC/ETH? ;)

Sure!

Send to [email protected]

:)

New_Life's picture
New_Life
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 18 2011
Posts: 143
Another Q...

I've got a post awaiting moderation on the initial advertisement for this seminar,I also meant to include this question too...

What's everyone's view on how good this ratio is as a prediction tool..?
http://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-nvt-ratio/

Rector's picture
Rector
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Feb 7 2010
Posts: 487
Well put Adam

I am in a business where I routinely have to explain our cost structure to clients so they can see why I charge them what I do.  While it is occassionally awkward - it does (among the business minded) provide the transparency which allows them to make a value judgment with the facts at hand.  I for one appreciate you opening the Kimono.  There is real quality in the research and timliness here and it remains the only site where I pay for premium content.  

Debu's idea has real merit - it may reduce transaction costs on your end and provide you a prepaid group of members who you know will participate in an event.

Keep up the good work Adam and remember - Content is King.

Rector

Afridev's picture
Afridev
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 11 2013
Posts: 119
Couple quick points

Adam, I appreciate the openness, and hope to see more of this in the future.

Some comments:

 

Adam Taggart wrote:
debu wrote:

Perhaps a "premium" membership at a higher rate with full access to paid webinars?

Debu -

Interesting idea. You have my word I'll give it serious thought and discuss with Chris.

...

... perhaps there's an "all webinar access" add-on option we can offer?

I personally prefer this latter option to having different levels of membership, where some are considered 'premium' and others 'less valuable'. It's probably just me who doesn't like to be 'graded'...

 

Adam Taggart wrote:

Now let's look at what enrolled members get today

  • 6-10 free articles per month
  • 5-8 premium articles per month
  • weekly premium Off The Cuff podcasts (with full transcripts)
  • weekly free Featured Voices podcast (with full transcripts)
  • daily gold & silver reports from DaveFairtex (which we pay to have produced)
  • reports from contributing editors, like Charles Hugh Smith (which we pay to have produced)
  • webinars (mixture of free & paid depending on production cost/effort)
  • ability to engage further & deeper via new seminars, summits, event liveblogs, etc
  • vastly better website -- both by performance (uptime, speed, security, etc) & functionality (layout, content, community, groups, wikis, What Should I Do? guide, etc)

You list here probably 65% of the value that PP enrollment brings to me. The remaining 35% are the comments/ discussions/ links from other PP members. While there doesn't seem to be a push to become more of a 'movement', I do feel that PP is much more than just a one-way information conduit (i.e. members are mere consumer). I do see that many members do spend significant time and effort in advancing and enriching constructive discussions, and bringing to the table new ideas and viewpoints (which for me have often been eye-openers). Members do bring significant value and richness to PP. I know that Adam didn't imply in any way that we don't, I just want to put this on the table  too.

 

Adam Taggart wrote:

Specifically, we ask ourselves the following question every week: How can we add more value without increasing the cost of enrollment?

There are two main dimensions in this question: the first is how to bring more value. One idea on this is that - coming back to the point mentioned above - I think there is a lot of untapped potential in the PP members group that doesn't really 'get out' fully. I'm not sure what approach would be best to tap into this potential, but unless there are specific reasons why you don't want to do this, I think it could be an interesting question.

The second is about the cost of enrollment: this can be broken again in several sections: how to increase number of paying members, I think PP is successfully working on this (I think there are many more paying members in 2017 than there were in 2010). Another is possibly tapping into different venues (I'm sorry I'm bringing up PressCoin regularly, but this model might be interesting for PP to become involved in (directly or copying the approach).

 

mrees999's picture
mrees999
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 16 2013
Posts: 364
Dumb

Transactions through are bottlenecked and have no relation to the dollar amounts. The fee is calculated by the amount of data bytes, not dollar amounts. It's apples and oranges. There are too many alternative blockchains now for people that really need to move money.  Bitcoin price is money moving into the system and happy to park right there and participate as a store of value.

 

If anything, the fee structure getting higher priced will influence people to keep their funds in btc as it will cost more to get them converted out. 

 

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 3 2008
Posts: 4942
its a feature

Eh, I'm not sure I'd call the $70-$120 transaction fee that kicks in when people get panicky a "feature".

Hover your mouse on the "peaks" in the chart below and you will see people who are paying 1500-2000 satoshis per byte.  TX is 226 bytes, so that's 226 x 2000 / 69 = $70.  There were lots more of them about a week ago when things were slightly more exciting.

https://dedi.jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/more/#2d

Of course, if you wait until things calm down and it will drop to 200, or about $7.  That's fine as long as you aren't using it to actually pay for anything under, say, $500.

"It's not a bug, its a feature.  Trust me, high fees are good for you."

Jim H's picture
Jim H
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Jun 8 2009
Posts: 2377
Let's not forget

That Bitcoin is designed as a scarce commodity.. therefore it has a generally deflationary quality.. meaning it will tend to go up in buying power.  Debt-based fiat is both by design and by historical/mathematical observation, quite the opposite.  Talk about features.....

When interest rates went to near zero, it was the, "tell" that our fiat money had become shiite.  Being able to see cyrpto's in the reflection of an ever growing pool of debt-based fiat will give one the clarity of thought necessary to put Mark's admonition, "hold on for dear life" into action.   

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 3 2008
Posts: 4942
hard limits

The only reason the fees are high is because of a hard limit placed on the number of bytes in a block way back when.  Its an artifact of implementation - the "scarcity" you are talking about is not in the coins itself, it is in the number of slots available to execute transactions.

There are only 4000 slots are available - worldwide - to execute transactions in any 10 minute period.  Roughly speaking.  That's because the block is capped at 1 megabyte and each transaction is typically 226 bytes.  These slots get used up really fast when people get excited.

Bitcoin will only be a toy until this gets addressed.  The problem is "political" rather than technical.  The fix is easy - just increase that block limit - but getting the miners to agree to give up that bit of "slot scarcity" that currently provides them the high fees, is not.

If a maximum of 4000 transactions per 10 minutes is innately good - why not drop it to 2000, or 500?  Wouldn't that be even better?

Related: is bitcoin for hoarding, or is it also a medium of exchange?

Related: would gold be even more attractive as "money" with an artificial limit on the number of people who could buy and sell it, worldwide - with each slot auctioned off by the "gold gatekeepers" to the great unwashed every time they wanted to buy or sell?  I bet goldbugs would chafe under such a system.

It just feels funny - almost like we're dealing with bankster/gatekeepers once again.  Only now we call them "miners."  If miners were owned by, say, "Goldman Sachs" or "JP Morgan Chase", you might be humming a slightly different tune, I suspect.  Is there any material difference who owns the whip hand, if we are all of us groaning under the lash?

Are poor people allowed to own and spend bitcoin?  Not when transaction fees are $120.

Conclusion: "bitcoin is only for the rich."

Conclusion #2: "Meet the new boss.  Same as the old boss."

When there is rent to be had, humans will engage in rent-seeking behavior.  That's what we are seeing play out in bitcoin right now.

gallantfarms's picture
gallantfarms
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
Joined: Jun 18 2009
Posts: 27
Bankster Bitcoin
Bitcoin was conceived to eliminate the banker middlemen.  The dream was "peer to peer" electronic cash.  It's really sad how easily it was taken over from within by the banksters.  They put "their" people in key positions and refused to let it scale by increasing the block size.  Then they can sell their solution of Lightning Network which is just a way of inserting their parasitic tentacles to extract fees/taxes and eliminate privacy.  
 
The Bitcoin Cash fork was a desperate attempt to preserve the original bitcoin:  peer to peer, fast & nearly free.  There is an army of paid trolls all over social media trashing Bitcoin Cash because it is the threat to those in power, not BTC.  The average "investor" doesn't seem to know or care as long as the price keeps going up.
 
Anyone interested can read more about this drama here:
https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/7mg4tm/updated_dec_2017_a_collection_of_evidence/
 
I very nearly bought Bitcoin when it was around $400 but the Mt Gox hack scared me off.  I remember thinking that if it really was a threat to the Powers they would squash it and if it wasn't a threat then why bother.  It will be interesting to see how it all plays out.
 
davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 3 2008
Posts: 4942
seems right

gallantfarms-

I didn't really notice this until I started tracking the performance of the bitcoin network and saw how the model worked, and how that interacted with prices.  It was all part of me trying to get my 0.1 bitcoin to the exchange so I could turn it into a Grand Cru.  It was a little bit appalling I had to pay $7 for the transfer, and that's only because I waited until things calmed down.  If I hadn't waited, it would have taken $50-$80.

That's an interesting take on the "bitcoin takeover" by the banksters.  Certainly $100 transactions makes it a lot less interesting to normal people.

And we must absolutely not underestimate the power of marketing in this whole game.

Cui bono if bitcoin is relegated to being a toy for the wealthy?  All those bitcoin whales - I wonder where they stand.  I guess they win either way because they have both.

And if the banksters can buy time to get their version done, they can catch up and be the toll taker once again.

I especially enjoyed the line: "we don't need large blocks because..."

 

mrees999's picture
mrees999
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 16 2013
Posts: 364
Disfunctional

Right.  BTC is pretty much dysfunctional now as a peer to peer payment system. Good thing we have forks.  Evolution of money continues as we speak. The blockchain is anti-fragile and censorship-resistant. It's fascinating to watch it grow, twist - turn and evolve as people apply pressures to it.  Perhaps the big banking system is attempting to take control - then see how the momentum moves to the other alternatives. 

 

It's like trying to squeeze sand.  This is still all a beta test, lest we forget.  Academics and all that.

 

 

 

Afridev's picture
Afridev
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 11 2013
Posts: 119
100 Cryptocurrencies in 4 words or less

Having a first glance at cryptocurrencies: https://techcrunch.com/2017/11/19/100-cryptocurrencies-described-in-4-wo...

Surely cutting corners, and not sure if neutral, but useful to have a first hint at what they're about...

charleshughsmith's picture
charleshughsmith
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 15 2010
Posts: 676
BTC is not the final iteration of cryptocurrencies

Just to state the obvious, BTC is not the final iteration of cryptocurrencies, it is the first. Hard forks are attempts to offer more effective versions. BCH (bitcoin cash) is an attempt to increase speeds/lower transaction costs, BTG (bitcoin gold) is an attempt to limit the power of the super-miners by opening mining (again) to those with mere CPUs (typical computers).  (the SegWit2X hard fork that was supposed to occur yesterday may well be a scam, so it's still the Wild West in crypto-land).

There are currencies such as IOTA that don't even follow the "mining" mechanism; each user processes the previous 2 transactions to get their transaction verified. IOW there are many models for maintaining the blockchain in development.

Now we have the corrupt govt of Venezuela announcing an "oil backed cryptocurrency". Oh really? So where's the mechanism for me to convert my Govt Crypto into a barrel of oil? If the currency can't be converted, it isn't backed by anything. This is merely a publicity stunt, another scam. 

It isn't all chaff. There is wheat in cryptos, but it takes work and insight to sort it. The diversity of opinion is prodigious. Most will be wrong for a variety of reasons that boil down to misunderstanding, confirmation bias, etc.

mrees999's picture
mrees999
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 16 2013
Posts: 364
Preparing for the webinar

It's important for any learning to remove bias. You can fill a full cup. If you are only interested in confirming a bias, you'll spend all of your time listening for keywords or phrases you can pull out of context that will satisfy your preconceived notions. I found this to be the biggest stumbling block in my years of teaching. Especially with controversial subjects.

In this light, I figure it's a good idea to try an break down those bias with very interesting and informative TED talks by some influential and respected people.  I'll put a few links to help give some background.

Having these out of the way can get us closer to the same page and we won't need to waste time covering these on an already complex subject.

Governments - find the blockchain Useful and it actually helps them solve the crime: This should help break the stereotype that Governments are going to shut down bitcoin or the blockchain, and why the darknet no longer uses bitcoin.

 

Busting the Silk Road darkweb case by the FBI investigator involved.

 https://youtu.be/507wn9VcSAE

 

 

 

mrees999's picture
mrees999
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 16 2013
Posts: 364
Banksters? See Ripple

Ripple is the crypto that is for the bankers. It is not decentralized. It's basically an improved swift bank system.

 

It has nothing to do with bitcoin - but this is a banking solution version and the token just reached $2.00 and in my opinion is nearly worthless.

But watch the value rise as uninformed people chase the price.This is much like the 'currency' spoken of by Mike Maloney. It just shuttles fiat from the current banking system.

 

 

 

Afridev's picture
Afridev
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 11 2013
Posts: 119
A 'gentle' introduction to

A 'gentle' introduction to blockchain with a focus on Bitcoin:

https://medium.com/blockchain-for-grandma/round-4-grandma-versus-bitcoin...

-Casey-'s picture
-Casey-
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
Joined: Nov 12 2013
Posts: 64
Being in the service industry myself

Few things get my goat more than people bitching about paying for a valuable service, e.g. this webinar. 

In my own case, for example, no, you're not paying $400/hour for my time.  You're paying $400/hour for four years of college, three years of law school, 21 years of on-the-job experience and a track record of great results for my clients. 

I have a decade-long client who calls me "Midas" because everything I touch turns to gold.  Nevertheless, one of my new year's resolutions is to fire him because to this day he bitches about his bills and I'd rather sit around and drink coffee all day than deal with his b.s.  Chris and Adam, charge whatever you calculate is fair and they will come if you are right.

The only crypto question I want to have answered is why I didn't put a grand in BTC at 15 cents a few years ago.  Oh right, 'cause I thought it was bullshit.

Jim H's picture
Jim H
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Jun 8 2009
Posts: 2377
ETH coming on strong tonight...

Best advice I have ever received on Crypto investing;  Hang On for Dear Life.  Who from?  Our friend Mark Rees...  

mrees999's picture
mrees999
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 16 2013
Posts: 364
Just HODL IT

PaulJam's picture
PaulJam
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
Joined: Dec 4 2016
Posts: 61
HODLing

HODLing has served me quite well thus far.  For example, I purchased GNT a while back after one of Mark's posts - after looking into it a bit myself of course.   After spiking to nearly $0.70 in June, it it hit a low of around $0.18 in late October, mostly below what I purchased it at.  Its now up to about $1.06 as I write this.  I sighed when it hit the lows, but never seriously thought about selling - I put in money that I was OK with losing.  Morale = HODL. 

But to use a cliche, this will work until it does not.  Maybe we are quite a ways away from the inflection point where HODLing becomes mal-adaptive, but on the other hand, I suspect think that the year of just buying BTC and sitting back and watching it skyrocket while sipping pina coladas is over (as one who sold 3/4 of my BTC near the top of the December frenzy - I have still not bought back in).  More and more are starting to see the warts in BTC, and that crypto investors will now need some better insights into the crypto market (which one has promise, which one has unsolvable, technical problems or technical problems that will be better solved by a competitor, which one is less poorly positioned than a competitor, which one is a just plain fraud, etc etc) to make decent returns. 

This may be more work than I am willing to put into the space, and is one of the reasons why I'm interested in the webinar.  However, my measly initial investment has grown into something that for me is substantial, and I want more hits of dopamine! (not to mention all the house renovation prep work that I am planning to do with my crypto profits...)

 

New_Life's picture
New_Life
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 18 2011
Posts: 143
That Bubble Chart & PM's

Why does the line for the Tech Bubble stop in 1 year after its peak?  What happened to the sector after then? 

I notice Gold is absent, did it not look like a bubble around 1980 onwards??

http://www.itulip.com/images/goldReal.jpg

Looking at the last year for BTC is interesting, maybe volume gives a better impression of if its a bubble?  https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/

As I mentioned previously, I predict its price to rise but market share to drop.

Also maybe not for this seminar, but good fodder for a follow on article, how Digital Currencies maybe the gateway to renewed interest in PM's....? 

A friend recently asked me (rather disparagingly) why I am even bothering with Digital Currencies, "they are a bubble, they don't add value to society like a bank loaning money, they aren't really worth anything because they are not backed by Governments". 

I gave an answer concerning the 2008 GFC, "Big Short" movie, 1971 Gold Standard, low interest rates, Low Growth, mass production of Fiat Currencies by desperate Governments riddled with debts, etc, etc...

His first response, "What was that word you used, Fiat??  What does that mean...."

Everyone has an opinion, some are more informed than others. 

This explosion in DC's may help inform the asleep masses of the bigger picture and that may lead to more interest in PM's.

mrees999's picture
mrees999
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 16 2013
Posts: 364
Bitcoin Bubble? Or Law of Nature?

The argument that bitcoin is not in a bubble:

New technology adoption:  Which of the previous picture were in a bubble?  This is the adoption curve of new paradigm-changing technology. Do you see the pattern?  The further to the right we go, the closer to our modern age and the steeper the adoption curves go. 

Now look at the adoption curve of crypto currencies. This isn't just bitcoin, although bitcoin has mostly represented 50% or more of all the market for most of its history.

The invention of blockchain is on par with the invention of the internet. Digital currencies themselves make up a tiny fraction of all the use-cases so far discovered. 

This is known as "Metcalf's Law". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metcalfe%27s_law

The telephone or Facebook was a pretty worthless technology when there is only one person using it. But its usefulness explodes exponentially as more people use the technology. This relies on the law of "The Network Effect". 

The difference this time is that the associated network effect contains a value proposition including the application for currencies, including bitcoin. So as more people adopt bitcoin for everyday use, do you see the value dropping at the same time? Has that ever been the case in history? 

Bitcoin itself has a limited use-case as a store of value. It is protected by the laws of thermodynamics. These are physical laws in principle that cannot be altered. Could something better come along and disrupt the network effects enjoyed by bitcoin? Sure.  In the first graph, we see the cellphone acceleration that was much steeper than the regular old telephone that they largely replaced. But we saw it coming and had time to adjust.

So ask yourself, what will come along and ban all digital currencies that transcend a nation's borders and laws? Atomic swaps will be here very soon and will remove the need for centralized exchanges on the ground.

Everything will move to the cloud where no guns can point to stop it. 

It has been compared to tulip bulbs and beenie babies. However, those did not have network effects as they weren't networks. When one person purchased a tulip bulb or beenie baby- nobody else was affected or benefited. With computer networks, the ability to transact, communicate, and transfer benefits all others on that same network. Tulips were in isolation, blockchains are networks. Big Difference.

 

 

Still convinced we're in a bubble?

 

Jim H's picture
Jim H
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Jun 8 2009
Posts: 2377
It looks to some like a bubble...

Because they don't understand that they are seeing the reflection of an elegant software asset with strict (in the case of Bitcoin at least) scarcity integrity as reflected (or denominated) in an ever exponentially growing pool of debt-based fiat currency.  

You can't understand the value or state of any asset until and unless you fully understand the nature of the debt-based fiat that remains the default means by which we denominate said value.  This might be called, "Jim H's law", were I have a law, which I don't.  

Enjoying watching ETH toying with the idea of a nine-handle today.  Once it digests a nine handle.. four figure ETH will come swiftly I predict.  When the dumb money Ripple bubble bursts, it will be good for ETH.  I swear folks are simply buying it because it's cheap, and it therefore has so much, "room to go up".  Disregard that there tens of billions of them vs. tens of millions of BTV or ETH.. I mean.. no biggie.. right?         

 

Jim H's picture
Jim H
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Jun 8 2009
Posts: 2377
I have my hat ready.....

ETH $1000

 

PaulJam's picture
PaulJam
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
Joined: Dec 4 2016
Posts: 61
Ripple and crypto conspiracy.....

I have no idea what to believe, but this post on zero hedge is certainly thought provoking - the article purports that the surge in Ripple is part of a conspiracy to bring down the decentralized cryptos.   

If this is true (and even if it isn't), I'm getting the feeling that the craziness factor is going exponential.  

I don't expect the seminar to get the bottom of all these issues in such a short time on sunday, but where does one start?  Or does one just sell now?  I just got rid of a tiny sliver of my ETH to realize some additional gains.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-04/anatomy-crypto-nightmare-rippl...

skipr's picture
skipr
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
Joined: Jan 9 2016
Posts: 95
Crypto Con??

I just read that ZH article and I'm getting really paranoid.  I logged into my vaultoro.com account for the 10th time and the transfer of some BTCs that I initiated 24 hours ago still hasn't completed 1 of 6 verifications.  I have already exchanged half of my BTCs for gold over there and it never took more than an hour.  Their support system has yet to respond, except for the automatic "we will get back to you soon."  I might move all of BTCs to gold as soon as I can.  I would like to stick with vaultoro since it's the only site I know of where I can exchange BTCs for gold and vice versa.

thatchmo's picture
thatchmo
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Dec 14 2008
Posts: 430
webinar invite?

I signed up for the webinar shortly after announcement, and haven't received an invite and instructions on how to join the webinar.  Wassup?  Aloha, Steve

Adam Taggart's picture
Adam Taggart
Status: Peak Prosperity Co-founder (Offline)
Joined: May 26 2009
Posts: 2890
Email with Instructions
thatchmo wrote:

I signed up for the webinar shortly after announcement, and haven't received an invite and instructions on how to join the webinar.  Wassup?  Aloha, Steve

Steve -

An email was sent to your kmarine email address right after you registered, with the url to use to access tomorrow's webinar.

If you can't locate it, email us at [email protected] and we'll re-send the link to you.

cheers,
Adam

Jim H's picture
Jim H
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Jun 8 2009
Posts: 2377
I apologize for not registering for the seminar...

Due to East Coast snow, my daughter's Friday flight to CA became a Sunday flight to CA.. and I will be delivering her to the airport as the seminar goes off.  All the best to my Crypto-aware colleagues.  ETH = $1117 as I write... OMG.  Total market cap of all coins approaching the $1T mark (now $830B).  Just this Spring the total cap was an order of magnitude less (~ $ 60B).  

Although I believe ETH still has room to run, any sensible commentator has to be projecting caution to new investors at this time.  Understand what you are investing in, and why.  Following momentum (i.e. Ripple) could put your savings in harms way. 

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