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  • Podcast

    Ben Jones: The Housing Bubble Is Popping Right Now

    Expect MUCH lower prices ahead
    by Adam Taggart

    Tuesday, November 27, 2018, 1:08 AM

As we've been tracking here at PeakProsperity.com, the housing market is starting to look quite ill.

After the central bank-driven Grand Reflation following the Great Financial Crisis, home prices are now beginning to nose over from their new bubble-highs.

Has the Housing Bust 2.0 begun? If so, how bad could things get? And what steps should those looking to pick up values at much lower prices in the future be taking?

This week we talk with citizen journalist Ben Jones, property manager and publisher of TheHousingBubbleBlog — where he tracks the latest headlines and developments in the housing market.

And given the stream of data Ben sees every day, he's extremely pessimistic on home prices in most major markets worldwide:

We're going to see a collapse. The housing bubble is in the process of popping right now. 

Everybody’s been behaving like speculators. Housing prices have been just like day trading stocks. What’s happening right now is a lot more suggestive of a bubble bursting much more than it does just a correction or a down cycle. 

I can’t think of a market in the United States I would buy in right now.

There’s plenty of people like me who have a memory of how this is going to play out (from the 2007 housing bubble burst), and they’re actually probably all lining up the same way.

If you're looking to purchase housing at better values once this current bubbe bursts, you don’t want to buy from Joe Six-Pack. You want to buy from a bank or a lender, that will frequently be Fannie May and Freddie Mac. For instance, in 2010, I helped somebody buy a house for $12,000 through an online auction. That house had been refinanced four years before for over $100,000. That same day, we could’ve bought three more for the same $10,000-$12,000 price. That’s the kind of discount you want to see and it's the lenders who are going to be the ones that give you those big discounts. Wait until the distressed sales. You don’t want to be buying retail in real estate.

Sheriff sales, trustee sales — they have to go through this process where they offer the propoerty to anybody who can buy it, including the current owner. They’ll put a print price on it that’s usually what’s owed on the property. When you see them selling it for less than what’s owed, that’s when there’s blood on the streets. Wait until a foreclosure has been sitting on the market for about 6 months, after they've whacked it down eight or nine times. Then make a lowball offer.

You have to realize is that the guys that are selling these are hired professional. Their job is to get rid of the houses — they’ve got so much to spend on them and so much that they're allowed to lose.

That’s where we’re headed again. I would be very patient right now about catching a falling knife in the current market. Wait for the coming distressed discounts.

Click the play button below to listen to Chris' interview with Ben Jones (43m:05s).

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21 Comments

  • Tue, Nov 27, 2018 - 1:30am

    #1
    beejay

    beejay

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 05 2014

    Posts: 0

    Buying Foreclosed houses

    Hello Chris,
     
    It would be great if someone could do a report on how to buy foreclosed stock from lenders like Ben Jones is describing in this podcast. His blog doesn’t seem conducive to finding specific information like that….

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  • Tue, Nov 27, 2018 - 6:50am

    #2

    thc0655

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 27 2010

    Posts: 1484

    The bubbles seem to be popping from the top down

    I know we always say around here that economic weakness and collapse starts on the outside (the most fragile or overextended places) first, and works its way to the center (the strongest places economically). So Greece, Turkey, and Argentina first, then moving toward the US, western Europe and China.  But I’m seeing that the housing bubbles worldwide are now starting to pop in the most ridiculously overpriced places first (NYC luxury markets, Seattle and San Francisco, Hong Kong and London, Australia), and these are universally viewed as economically strong. From what I can see, the prices in places where the “Average Person” lives in an “Average Economy” are not exhibiting declines like these most overpriced markets are (yet). In fact some are currently stable or still rising (more on that below). I explain that to myself by concluding that the most ridiculously overpriced markets are therefore the most fragile and vulnerable, and respond first to the slightest perturbations of their economies and housing markets. The “Average Markets” are not as overextended and therefore not as instantly sensitive to the slightest problems.  Additionally, it seems that these most ridiculously overpriced markets are where buyers with the privileged first access to money printed-out-of-thin-air buy (either because they live there or because they invest there). And since the world’s central banks are beginning to reverse their money printing operations and soak up some of the oceans of liquidity, then that dynamic is bound to effect first those who have been receiving it and profiting from it all along (and therefore the real estate markets they’ve been playing in are affected).
    This whole housing market bubble has my complete attention as we are currently building a home to retire to in New Hampshire while we finish out the last 6 months of our (traditional) careers here in Philadelphia.  Part of our strategy has been to retire from a city with a high cost of living to a town far away with a lower cost of living, and that looks like it’s going to work well (as long as local housing prices hold up for another 6 weeks!!). However, this whole popping housing bubble getting started has caused us to move up the date we list our house for sale from March 2019 to the beginning of January 2019.
    We bought our house here in 1988 when the local economy sucked and we were located on the literal line dividing a low income, high crime “ghetto” area from a middle and upper-middle class area.  (If you haven’t lived in a major US city you would probably be shocked how fast neighborhoods can change from ghetto to middle class to prosperous.  Two to three hundred FEET can make a world of difference in such high density places.)  Anyway, we were pioneers and risk takers at a time when no one could predict which way our neighborhood would go: up or down.  Fortunately for us, our neighborhood became more prosperous as other risk takers came along and reinforced our position.  The beginnings of the ghetto have now moved 1/4 mile north of us and the “gentrification” is continuing in that direction as houses are being renovated at a rapid clip, or torn down and new homes constructed.  We are now comfortably inside the upper-middle class neighborhood.
    Our neighborhood did not see as much price appreciation as the rest of the country in the 2004-07 housing bubble, and when when the bubble burst it didn’t see as much decline either.  This time, however, our prices have gotten crazy high and are still climbing.  If everyone would just be quiet about the ridiculous prices and the inevitable collapse, we’d be happy because we just want to get ours and slip away before the ship goes down!!  Our neighborhood is one of the two hottest in the city and prices are holding steady and climbing a little in spite of the rest of the world or ultimate reality. And our neighborhood does have a lot to recommend it if you are required to live in the city or have chosen to do so.  Public transit is good (though one of the most expensive in the country).  People can also walk or bike to most cultural attractions and to most jobs in the center of the city and its adjacent neighborhoods.
    To give you an idea what’s happening here, consider this.  In 1988 we paid $64,500 for our 1,100 square foot, two story, brick rowhouse (built in 1881). It needed A LOT of work, and we did most of that ourselves while raising a 7 year old and and a 3 year old.  Since ’88 we’ve probably spent $150,000 on renovation and maintenance.  Back in June, two of our neighbors with houses 95% identical to ours and less than 200 feet away sold their houses in 11 days for $420,000 and $409,000.  Prices have been slightly rising until this month.  Three houses in our neighborhood 95% the same as ours are currently listed for $459,000 to $479,000.  I find that astounding, and I’m pretty sure it’s not just because I’m old and don’t know what things cost “these days.”  Selling in January isn’t as big a problem in Philly as it is in many other places that are more seasonal, so we expect to list our house for at least $449,000 even if prices contract every week between now and then.  Of course we’ll have to pay the 6% sales commission and the 2% city real estate transaction tax (the buyer has to pay 2% too — the joys of city life!). We’ve been going to the “open houses” for these properties competitive with ours and we’re finding that most of the prospective buyers are DINKs (double income, no kids).  That’s not surprising.  Who else could afford to buy here? 
    Our new home in Concord, NH is 1,480 sq. ft and sits on 0.63 acre and we’re into it for about $330,000.  So it looks like we’re going to be able to pay off our construction loan and other expenses with the proceeds of our Philly house sale, and still have some change left over!  Making sure we can at least cover our expenses for building was our primary goal.  We’ve been debt free since 2007 and that’s the way we want it to stay.  It would be a disaster for us if we still owed money for the house in Concord after we received the proceeds from the Philly house.  I’m starting to relax about that now since only a sudden cataclism like WWIII could cause the price of our house to drop from $460,000 today to $360,000 (our break even sales price) in the next 5-6 weeks.  Even in the bursting of the last housing bubble, prices didn’t come down that much that fast (at least not here).
    Of course, to pull this all off we’ve had to endure everything urban living in Philadelphia could throw at us for 30 years. That has been exhausting and we’re looking forward to some peace and quiet.
    “Welcome to the Hunger Games.  And may the odds be ever in your favor.”
     

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  • Tue, Nov 27, 2018 - 9:33am

    Reply to #2

    Snydeman

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Feb 06 2013

    Posts: 523

    You nailed it

    thc0655 wrote:

    I know we always say around here that economic weakness and collapse starts on the outside (the most fragile or overextended places) first, and works its way to the center (the strongest places economically). So Greece, Turkey, and Argentina first, then moving toward the US, western Europe and China.  But I’m seeing that the housing bubbles worldwide are now starting to pop in the most ridiculously overpriced places first (NYC luxury markets, Seattle and San Francisco, Hong Kong and London, Australia), and these are universally viewed as economically strong. From what I can see, the prices in places where the “Average Person” lives in an “Average Economy” are not exhibiting declines like these most overpriced markets are (yet). In fact some are currently stable or still rising (more on that below). I explain that to myself by concluding that the most ridiculously overpriced markets are therefore the most fragile and vulnerable, and respond first to the slightest perturbations of their economies and housing markets. The “Average Markets” are not as overextended and therefore not as instantly sensitive to the slightest problems.  Additionally, it seems that these most ridiculously overpriced markets are where buyers with the privileged first access to money printed-out-of-thin-air buy (either because they live there or because they invest there). And since the world’s central banks are beginning to reverse their money printing operations and soak up some of the oceans of liquidity, then that dynamic is bound to effect first those who have been receiving it and profiting from it all along (and therefore the real estate markets they’ve been playing in are affected).

     
    I think you’ve hit on the key idea here; in housing, the “outside” would be the most over-valued and least traded (in terms of volume of sales), and hence the most sensitive to price changes. The “core” would be average people like us, living in the markets that average people buy in. As I recall from the last bubble, the worst perturbations were in the $1million+ market, and things started there first. When it started to hit everyday markets in “middle-class America,” shit started getting real. Well, until TARP and all that nonsense.
     

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  • Tue, Nov 27, 2018 - 11:12am

    #3

    sand_puppy

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 13 2011

    Posts: 1942

    Impact of Mortgage Interest Rates on Home Price

    The problem:  A young couple wishes to buy a home.  They figure they can afford monthly payments of $1,500.
    How big of a loan can they afford?  (Assume 30 year, fixed, conforming loan)

    As the mortgage interest rate rises from 3% to 6% the couple finds it can afford $100,000 less house.

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  • Tue, Nov 27, 2018 - 12:43pm

    Reply to #2

    Grover

    Status Gold Member (Offline)

    Joined: Feb 15 2011

    Posts: 691

    Sell it yourself

    thc0655 wrote:

    To give you an idea what’s happening here, consider this.  In 1988 we paid $64,500 for our 1,100 square foot, two story, brick rowhouse (built in 1881). It needed A LOT of work, and we did most of that ourselves while raising a 7 year old and and a 3 year old.  Since ’88 we’ve probably spent $150,000 on renovation and maintenance.  Back in June, two of our neighbors with houses 95% identical to ours and less than 200 feet away sold their houses in 11 days for $420,000 and $409,000.  Prices have been slightly rising until this month.  Three houses in our neighborhood 95% the same as ours are currently listed for $459,000 to $479,000.  I find that astounding, and I’m pretty sure it’s not just because I’m old and don’t know what things cost “these days.”  Selling in January isn’t as big a problem in Philly as it is in many other places that are more seasonal, so we expect to list our house for at least $449,000 even if prices contract every week between now and then.  Of course we’ll have to pay the 6% sales commission and the 2% city real estate transaction tax (the buyer has to pay 2% too — the joys of city life!). We’ve been going to the “open houses” for these properties competitive with ours and we’re finding that most of the prospective buyers are DINKs (double income, no kids).  That’s not surprising.  Who else could afford to buy here?

    THC,
    Have you considered selling it yourself? There are lots of resources on the internet to guide you. That 6% sales commission comes out of your pocket. Instead of giving it to realtors, give a 6% discount to the buyer. Your bottom line would be the same, and would give you an edge in a declining market environment.
    The last time I sold, I used a realtor who told us our house was more valuable than I thought it was. After a couple of months with no serious buyer interest, the realtor told us we may have been too aggressive in our pricing and suggested dropping the price about 3.5%. Almost 2 more months past before we got an offer that was almost 3% below our lowered price. That offer came with some contingencies (kitchen upgrades) that would have cost another 2%+. We agreed to the lowered price, but without any strings. They eventually agreed to our conditions and the sale was finalized.
    The house sold for about what I thought it was worth. I still had to pay the realtors’ commissions. I also had 5 additional months of double house payments. Needless to say, it has left a bad taste in my mouth.
    If/when I decide to sell, I’ll drop in my bank and ask for a list of house appraisers they consider competent. (They may just tell me that anyone with XXX certification would be considered competent.) Then, I’d go shopping for an appraisal that meets bank standards. Then, I’d advertise my house on craigslist (lots of nice pictures and a good story) showing the appraised price along with the 6% discounted price (sold ‘as is’.) If the house doesn’t sell this way in a month or two, I’d reconsider my approach and go the traditional realtor route.
    That’s what I’d do. Of course, you have to decide what is right for you since you know your situation better than I do, and this “advice” is nothing more than a friendly suggestion to consider.
    Grover

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  • Tue, Nov 27, 2018 - 1:57pm

    #4

    Adam Taggart

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: May 25 2009

    Posts: 2618

    Giving Away Homes For Free In Japan

    This is what happens when a stagnant economy collides with aging demographics:

    Want a free country house in Japan? They’re giving them away (CNBC)

    Japan has an increasing number of vacant homes — a problem that’s set to persist because of an aging and shrinking population that has left many towns and villages empty.
    “Japan faces significant economic and social impact effects from demographic (aging) over the next three decades,” Rajiv Biswas, Asia-Pacific chief economist at IHS Markit, wrote in an October note.
    Abandoned properties in the world’s third-largest economy are among the least-discussed side effects of the country’s demographic changes. But it’s getting more attention given the increasing number of affordable — and sometimes free — houses put up for sale online on websites called “akiya banks.”
    On one website, several homes are free, with the buyer having to pay only taxes and fees such as agent commissions.
    Across Japan, the number of vacant homes stood at 8.196 million in 2013, representing around 13.52 percent of the country’s total housing stock, according to latest data by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications.
    The 2013 figures were higher than 2008′s 7.568 million empty houses, which accounted for about 13.14 percent of Japan’s total homes that year, according to the data. By 2033, the proportion of vacant homes in Japan is expected to grow to surpass 20 percent, according to Fujitsu Research Institute.

     

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  • Tue, Nov 27, 2018 - 6:17pm

    #5
    Dlumb77

    Dlumb77

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: May 25 2014

    Posts: 40

    Is the 2.5 - 3.5 House Price to Income Ratio still valid?

    Is the 2.5 – 3.5 House Price to Income Ratio still valid?
    2 Observations:
    Increasing population. Unchanged Land availability. Competition through supply/demand dynamics will surely drive up prices in places that populations is increasing.
    Low Interest rates. We’re at the end of a 35 year decline in interest rates. With today’s low interest rates (in comparsion to the historical average), you can buy a higher-priced house for the same 30 years worth of mortage repayments (becasue less is being spent on interest).

    BTW, I’m in Australia. 2 major differences to real estate bubbles in the US:
    Non-Recourse loans. My understanding is that the house is commonly the only security for the loan in the US. As such, you can just “give your keys back to the bank” and walk away from the loan. In Australia you can’t do that. The borrower is responsible for the loan regardless of what happens to the house. In previous downturns, rather than a dramatic drops in price, we saw that people simply stop selling and attempt to ride-out the losses. Prices see a slight drop and then years of stagnation.
    Net migration. Cities like Melbourne and Sydney have added 25%(!) to their populations in the last 10 years, mostly through overseas migration. Forecast migration numbers are unchanged for future years. Any wonder why the competition for houses is so strong?

    Final comment: “You have to live somewhere”. When the whole country is in a bubble you have no choice but to participate as either an owner or a renter. People are renting out tents on AirBnB in their back yards for $90/night in Melbourne! There is literally nowhere “else” to go and sit out the bubble.
    Happy bubble watching.

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  • Tue, Nov 27, 2018 - 9:01pm

    #6

    sebastian

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Feb 08 2010

    Posts: 4

    Get out while you can

    I’m guessing within the next 10+ years  that large metropolitan areas will become  very hard to live in. We will be making one of our trips into the “big city” of Vancouver shortly. Every time we go there I’m reaffirmed in our decision to become ruralites. You can’t buy a house for less than 800,000$! How anyone accepts that is baffling, I would rather be struggling to make it in a rural setting than getting by in that crazy place and Vancouver is one the nicer cities I’ve been to. By and large the happiest people I’ve encountered while travelling have been humble country folk. The population density is just too much, when things get desperate cities are alway full of people you haven’t built relationships with. Within the last 6 months of being in a small town I’ve developed closer ties with my neighbours than I did living 12 years on the same street in an urban setting. There is something about being in a sparsely populated area that makes people lean on each other, it much healthier. 
    Seb.

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  • Wed, Nov 28, 2018 - 3:17am

    Reply to #4

    Mots

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jun 18 2012

    Posts: 68

    Giving away more than homes

    Re: Giving Away Homes For Free In Japan
    It gets even better. We have tons of working, beautiful, farms with deep topsoil, many with houses attached, that are free for long term (10 years or longer ie. indefinite) zero cost lease in the countryside.  All that is needed is a plan for farming the land.
    Many wonderful opportunities for young people and others who want to start a life here in Japan. 
    And, like most things in life, the best opportunities are found outside the government controlled/organized system.  That is, it is best to interact directly with private individuals without bothering with real estate companies and government agencies.  CNBC doesnt know the half of it………..
    Mots

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  • Wed, Nov 28, 2018 - 8:43am

    Reply to #2

    Matt Holbert

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Oct 03 2008

    Posts: 73

    Echoing Grover

    I would consider bypassing the realtor and “listing” the home on Zillow. Someone just down the street did this and sold their house in 3 weeks or so. See here. A sign was never put up. We got a realtor involved when we sold a home in 2006. Like Grover’s case, the Realtor set the price too high. Knowing that there was a bubble, I — against the advice from the realtor — quickly started lowering the price. I just told the realtor to lower the asking price by 10k per week. It eventually sold for 55k below the initial asking price. This was still 110% more than what we paid for the home 8 years prior. I personally showed the home to the eventual buyers two times. The realtor didn’t even have to show up. All the realtor had to do was put the home on MLS. Not necessary with a service like Zillow.
    Please note that the neighbor mentioned above may have had to pay a commission — likely 3% — if the buyer was working with a realtor. When we bought in 2016 we did not use a realtor. Our offer was accepted over higher offers because the selling agent got the full commission and just happened to be the son of the seller. : )

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  • Wed, Nov 28, 2018 - 9:42am

    #7
    Uncletommy

    Uncletommy

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: May 03 2014

    Posts: 524

    How long can you tread water?

    Depending on your ethnic and age demographic, one thing many of us older white, NA, privileged types need to realize is that our European heritage exclusiveness is rapidly being supplanted by an ethnically diverse world population. As well, commerce and urbanization will be the mainstay of future population growth. The sad truth is, for many of us “ruralites”, looking to maintain a connection to a traditionally “earthy” value system and independant way of life, those days are slipping away. Having lived in the country (which is now only 20 minutes from the nearest Lowes), I am confident that very few new potential buyers of real estate are willing to part with $500,000+ just to live like a peasant and enjoy the smells of an organic existence. The specialist has replaced the generalist when it comes to a techno-lavished world and interconnectedness the norm. With more and more farm land being buried by asphalt and natural landscapes giving way to Solar farms, our human footprint may be the only thing left by the time the world population peaks.
    Living together in new communities for a measly “starting at $289,000” and enjoying curried rice,dim sum with falaphel and watching “Bollywood” movies may be the new reality. Move over traditionists; change is on its way!
    Image result for landmark townhomes for sale edmonton

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  • Sat, Dec 01, 2018 - 10:20pm

    #8
    pgp

    pgp

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Mar 01 2014

    Posts: 165

    The Science of Profit Capture

    Over the past 70 years technology has advanced.  All sciences have developed and innovation has led the way but what people don’t necessarily realize is that there have been significant advancements in behavioral studies, neurology and psychology.
    The corporate parasites have of course profited from that science as well.  It drives modern advertising, market manipulation, the election process and is responsible for humanitarian movements, gender freedom and arguments over the justness of time honored traditions.
    That trend in behavioral science when applied to controlling the population is why we have speculative housing bubbles, doubt over global warming and environmental collapse that our governments do nothing about. 
    What better way to get people buying houses than to broadcast a reality TV program showing them how easy it is to make a hundred grand.  Don’t just advertise the next great bargain, demonstrate it on the tube.  Microsoft, Apple, Audi and BMW already use big Hollywood movies to sell their wares.  And of course the best medium of all upon which to sell the masquerade is social media.  Elections will now be won or lost on how well that medium is managed, but equally a big corporation will do exceptionally well if they can convince people that their products are trending, at least until a negative sentiment develops, as with the I-Phone.  All it takes is money, in the amounts only elite institutions and credit fueled corporations can wield.
    So yes the bubbles have been there for decades, because the usurer’s hard-sell has become exceptionally good at convincing everyone that the benefits of being all-in outweigh any possible short term negatives.
     
    The root causes of societal failure come from incompetent or corrupt leadership and a lack of control. Where once governments evolved to protect the people and police exploitation today they simply protect the money-makers while suppressing and even fleecing the middle class.
    People jump up and down, protesting symptoms while being utterly blind to the real triggers.  As with all “revolutions” those with real vision need to be empowered so they can step forward and focus the rising community anger where change is desperately overdue.  Seriously empowered because “politics” has become very effective at deflecting attention towards manufactured issues like terrorism, Russian hacking, China, South Korea and every pointless skirmish in  between.

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  • Wed, Dec 05, 2018 - 9:20pm

    #9

    Mark_BC

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 30 2010

    Posts: 298

    I have a situation that I am

    I have a situation that I am struggling with right now. I didn’t think it worthy of starting my own topic but it pertains to timing of the crash so I’ll post it here. I can’t really talk to most people about it the way you all understand the situation going forward, which is why I’m posting this here. Not looking for answers, just putting it out there.
    I recently saw a post for my dream job and applied. I got a first interview last week and I will know by next week if I got through that to the second round. It is for coral restoration work around the Caribbean and branching out into the Pacific.
    The catch is it’s based out of Miami. I think it’s safe to say that when the big crash hits, southern Florida will be one of the worse places to be stuck in, in the US. Plus it is for a non-profit organisation which would probably get hit hard financially by the crash.
    Right now, I have reliable and good work in a gold mine in Canada. It is interesting and I love gold for the reasons we all know about, but ultimately it’s just a mine and beyond the monetary aspects of gold I don’t have any lifelong need to spend my career in gold mining. But coral reef restoration… that is something I could truly sink my soul into.
    But I am “safe” up here in Canada and would weather the crash better than most, possibly “prospering” in relative terms.
    If I thought we had another 5 years before the crash I’d for sure take the job. But what if we only have 2 months? 8 years ago I was thinking the crash was right around the corner but it didn’t happen. What if we are all wrong again this time?
    Of course if I don’t get offered the job then the decision will have been made for me which will make it a lot easier but just trying to prepare myself for if the decision does come…

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  • Wed, Dec 05, 2018 - 10:48pm

    Reply to #9

    Grover

    Status Gold Member (Offline)

    Joined: Feb 15 2011

    Posts: 691

    Dreams or Security

    Mark,
    This is the best advice I heard for a hard choice I had in front of me:

    When you are on your death bed looking back at your life, what choice are you going to wish you had made?

    I would add that it would be smart to hedge as much as you can. I had a dream and followed it for over 7 years. Financially, I failed miserably at it; however, not attempting it would have been much worse for me. To misuse Robie’s metaphor somewhat, it settled my mare.
    I wish you the best,
    Grover

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  • Wed, Dec 05, 2018 - 10:52pm

    Reply to #9

    Mark_BC

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 30 2010

    Posts: 298

    Grover wrote: When you are

    Grover wrote:

    When you are on your death bed looking back at your life, what choice are you going to wish you had made?

    Thanks, yes this is always something in the back of my mind. My concern is if a much-feared-and-anticipated-by-preppers Mad Max scenario arises after the crash during hyperinflation, then my death bed may be in Miami in 3 months!

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  • Thu, Dec 06, 2018 - 10:04am

    Reply to #9
    Yoxa

    Yoxa

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

    Joined: Dec 20 2011

    Posts: 286

    Trust that feeling

    Quote:

     that is something I could truly sink my soul into

    Trust that feeling. It matters, a lot.
    Florida might pose big challenges if things collapse, but no place will be completely safe. You can do things to improve your “crash-proof-ness” no matter where you are so don’t let collapse worries outweigh the other factors in your decision making. It’s definitely something to keep in mind, but think of it as one factor among many to consider, probably not the make-or-break issue.

    Quote:

     death bed may be in Miami in 3 months

    Or you might get hit by a truck next Tuesday.
    Few of us know when we’ll die. So let your end take care of itself and try to make the choices that will be meaningful for your life.

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  • Thu, Dec 06, 2018 - 11:49pm

    Reply to #9

    Grover

    Status Gold Member (Offline)

    Joined: Feb 15 2011

    Posts: 691

    There's NO Free Lunch

    I agree with Yoxa!

    Ladies and Gentlemen,
    Take my advice.
    Pull down your pants
    and slide on the ice.

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  • Mon, Dec 10, 2018 - 4:21pm

    #10
    QQQBall

    QQQBall

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Mar 03 2011

    Posts: 12

    The problem isnt that only a

    The problem isnt that only a new couple buying a home can affors $100k less; the real problem is that their dopplegangers already bought the home aand are $100,000+ underwater and due to the rising rates, one of the couple lost their job.

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  • Sat, Dec 15, 2018 - 5:41am

    Reply to #9
    zaphod4prez

    zaphod4prez

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jan 11 2016

    Posts: 0

    Don’t live from fear

    This coral reef job sounds amazing; and it sounds like your gut tells you to take it. There is no doubt in my mind that you should do it. The first reason is that, well, what kind of life is a life lived in fear? That’s not to say we should all ignore pressing danger; but this is not that! Ideas about when collapse will happen or what it will look like are complete speculation. As for my opinion on all that; Mad Max? No way in hell. Americans love the zombie movie / gangster wasteland fairytale but ya know what? It’s just not going to happen. Far more likely is a slow-and-stepped slide into a sad state of disarray. I think a more legitimate fear about Miami is just having to deal with hurricanes etc. If you go in to your new situation thinking carefully and rationally about the risks you’re taking and mitigating them as best you can…that’s all anyone can do, and you’ll still be better off than literally 99% of people in North America. 
     
    One last thing— I can’t tell you how much respect and love you’ll get from people you meet when they hear about that job. You’d be makin an actual 100% real and important difference in the world! That is awesome, and worthy of immense respect. 

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  • Sat, Dec 15, 2018 - 10:17am

    #11
    Peter Smith

    Peter Smith

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Mar 28 2009

    Posts: 21

    Housing Bubble

    Someone wrote:  “Where once governments evolved to protect the people and police exploitation…” Really?  When and where?  I believe govenrments ALWAYS evlove to suppress the people.    

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  • Mon, Dec 24, 2018 - 9:45pm

    Reply to #3
    jomurphy09

    jomurphy09

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jul 02 2016

    Posts: 2

    how much is a house really worth....

    if there is no way to take out 30-year loans?

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