Posts by davefairtex

  • News

    Bad Payrolls & Rented Mules

    Weekly Market Commentary 8 October 2021
    by davefairtex

    Sunday, October 10, 2021, 8:00 AM

    16

    Please note: there will not be a Weekly Market Commentary next week (15 October 2021) because Davefairtex will be on vacation. It was another bad payrolls report; headline +194k, with +475k expected. Friend-of-the-site Wolf Richter has a breakdown of this very complicated employment picture. People Not Looking for Work, Labor Force Drops. But Households Report…

    Read More »

  • News

    COMEX Delivery Wednesday, Not Capable of Inducing Genetic Changes in Human Cells

    Weekly Market Commentary 1 October 2021
    by davefairtex

    Sunday, October 3, 2021, 7:41 PM

    37

    Market Commentary Its hard to know where to focus right now – there is so much going on. First of all this was “COMEX PM delivery week”, specifically, Wednesday was the big delivery day. So guess what happened to silver on Wednesday? It got crapped on – and not by a little either. Silver plunged…

    Read More »

  • News

    Taper Coming Soon, View from Other Side of the Hill

    Weekly Market Commentary 24 September 2021
    by davefairtex

    Sunday, September 26, 2021, 7:44 PM

    20

    Market Commentary This was Fed Meeting Week – for those who have been distracted by “covid”, the Fed has been hinting about maybe-possibly-tapering their money-printing spree because, maybe, inflation is kinda-sorta starting to become a thing. Finally. To their great relief. Inflation! Yay!! Ok well sure, inflation sucks if you’re a wage-earner, or on a…

    Read More »

  • News

    Dollar Rally Hurts PM, Monoclonal Antibodies for Everyone!

    Weekly Market Commentary 17 September 2021
    by davefairtex

    Sunday, September 19, 2021, 7:37 AM

    34

    Market Commentary There were three major economic series released this week: Retail Sales [+0.71% m/m], Industrial Production [+0.40% m/m], and CPI [+0.27% m/m]. The CPI was just a bad joke; it is up +4.38% y/y, with PPIACO up +16.16%. Someone should complain to the Trusted News Initiative gang that the harmful disinformation coming from the…

    Read More »

  • News

    A Copper Mystery, Bubble Pop in China?

    Weekly Market Update 10 September 2021
    by davefairtex

    Sunday, September 12, 2021, 8:12 PM

    22

    Market Commentary It is time once again for PPIACO – the old-style Producer Price Index dating back to 1913!  Indexes aren’t so useful, unless they are translated into “percent change year-over-year”.  As with last month, PPIACO y/y change remains around 20%, which is the largest move since Nixon was in the White House, a few…

    Read More »

  • News

    Bad Payrolls, Destroy the Village

    Weekly Market Update 3 September 2021
    by davefairtex

    Monday, September 6, 2021, 9:56 AM

    28

    Market Commentary Payrolls was the market mover this week – they came in a lot lower than expected [headline +235k], still perhaps 5M below pre-pandemic levels. Wolf Richter has a good article breaking down why things haven’t gone so well for payrolls. No, it’s not “delta”. As I’ve said before, if you pay people not…

    Read More »

  • News

    Core PCE at 28-Year Highs & The Outcome They Wanted

    Weekly Market Update 27 August 2021
    by davefairtex

    Sunday, August 29, 2021, 10:33 AM

    16

    Weekly Market Commentary The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, “Core PCE”, rose 0.3375% m/m [3.62% y/y] this month – the highest increase since the early 90s.   Powell’s speech (released at 10 am on Friday) was seen by the market as dovish, however, and that drove PM prices higher in response.  Even so, my sense is that…

    Read More »

  • News

    The Impending Taper, and Boosters: A Strategic Blunder

    Weekly Market Update 20 August 2021
    by davefairtex

    Sunday, August 22, 2021, 7:16 AM

    19

    Market Commentary This week we saw falling Retail Sales [-1.49% m/m] alongside a rising Industrial Production [+0.93% m/m]. Post-pandemic, Retail Sales had been supported both by rising prices, as well as lots of free money from the government, but this appears to be coming to an end, although in absolute terms it remains strong. INDPRO…

    Read More »

  • News

    Strong Inflation, Weak Sentiment, Spikes for Everyone!

    Market Update 13 August 2021
    by davefairtex

    Sunday, August 15, 2021, 12:27 PM

    57

    Commentary Producer prices (PPIACO) looked unpleasant for July; +1.18% m/m, +19.79% y/y. That’s the largest increase since 1973-74. But don’t worry; Powell tells us it is transitory. It was transitory back in the 70s too – but the “transition period” lasted about 8 years, resulting in prices jumping from PPIACO=40 to PPIACO=100. Now that’s the…

    Read More »

  • News

    Dollar & Payrolls Bounce, Awash in Lies & Misinformation

    Weekly Market Update 6 August 2021
    by davefairtex

    Sunday, August 8, 2021, 4:52 PM

    16

    Market Commentary The buck erased most of last week’s losses [+0.66%], with the bulk of the gains coming on Friday, following a surprisingly strong Nonfarm Payrolls report [headline +943k +0.65%]. Might this be due to some of the Red states deciding to cease paying people to remain unemployed? The rise in payrolls doesn’t look all…

    Read More »