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    An Official Emergency

    Latest SARS-COV-II Video Update
    by Chris Martenson

    Tuesday, March 3, 2020, 3:01 PM

As officials scramble to get in front of a disease that seems to easily evade their slow-footed efforts, SARS-COV-II is growing exponentially in several countries.

Iran’s cases and deaths are certainly far higher then they claim, as recent gruesome video evidence supports.

The Federal Reserve took it’s only hammer out of its bag and performed a surprise 50 bp (0.5%) emergency rate cut.  The last times the Fed performed such a cut were followed by bad moments in financial history including March 2001, and Oct 2008.

Further, the supply shocks are just starting to be felt, and China’s economic activity proxies (such as passenger miles, pollution levels, etc.) all point to a continued stoppage of a huge proportion of its economy.

You need to be ready for an explosion of cases in your country, especially if you live in a cooler climate.
Please, use every day to improve your circumstances.

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169 Comments

  • Tue, Mar 03, 2020 - 3:25pm

    #1
    centroid

    centroid

    Status: Member

    Joined: Nov 16 2014

    Posts: 56

    centroid said:

    more "stimulus" will just denude the real economy as the something for nothing transaction will occur

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  • Tue, Mar 03, 2020 - 4:10pm

    #2

    thc0655

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Apr 27 2010

    Posts: 1938

    And now we have a 2nd case in NH

    https://patch.com/new-hampshire/concord-nh/second-new-hampshire-coronavirus-case-reported-grafton-county?utm_source=alert-breakingnews&utm_medium=email&utm_term=lifestyle&utm_campaign=alert

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  • Tue, Mar 03, 2020 - 4:13pm

    #3
    Thetallestmanonearth

    Thetallestmanonearth

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 28 2013

    Posts: 330

    Export restrictions on API’s

    India is banning export of 26 API’s vitamins and essential ingredients. This type of action is likely to be almost as deadly as the virus, though they can hardly be faulted for putting their own people First.

     

    https://www.in-pharmatechnologist.com/Article/2020/03/03/India-stops-export-of-certain-APIs

     

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  • Tue, Mar 03, 2020 - 4:39pm

    #4

    sofistek

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Oct 02 2008

    Posts: 668

    Road Congestion Chart

    The China road congestion chart doesn't have the y-axis starting at zero but at 1.0, so Chris's characterisation of the congestion being half of normal doesn't seem right. It is normally at about 1.7 but is currently at a bit more than 1.2, which is closer to 3/4 of the normal, rather than 1/2. Or is 1.0 essentially the zero point, with less than zero being impossible? If so, I retract this slight criticism!

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  • Tue, Mar 03, 2020 - 4:39pm

    Chris Martenson

    Chris Martenson

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Jun 07 2007

    Posts: 5103

    Re:Export restrictions on API’s

    Oh Crap.

    This was expected, but is double-plus ungood.

    From the article:

    A ban on clindamycin exports?  OMG - this is what I got last time I had a tooth infection.  Good stuff for that sort of thing.

    Paracetemol?

    Tinidazole?

    I don't think anybody is quite ready for what this means yet...

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  • Tue, Mar 03, 2020 - 4:42pm

    #6

    Montana Native

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 17 2009

    Posts: 113

    American testing numbers

    Anyone know how many have been tested in the States so far? I saw a tweet the other day claiming they dropped the testing numbers on the CDC website....on the 1st it wasn't even 500 tests.

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  • Tue, Mar 03, 2020 - 4:44pm

    Montana Native

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 17 2009

    Posts: 113

    Pharmacy drugs

    After watching these videos with my wife, she ordered 6 months supplies for the most important drugs in the Pharmacy she manages several weeks back. Antibiotics were a large part of her order.

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  • Tue, Mar 03, 2020 - 4:54pm

    #8

    sofistek

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Oct 02 2008

    Posts: 668

    Not the flu

    Chris seems to be making a point about Covid-19 being much more deadly than the flu and that this is the reason for emergency interest rate cuts and manufacturing shutdown in China, etc. However, isn't it true that the flu has become normalised, which is why it doesn't result in as much panic (unless some new virulent strain emerges) as this new virus and it is because of the general panic that what may be over-reaction is occurring?

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  • Tue, Mar 03, 2020 - 5:22pm

    #9
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 660

    km64, PP posting guidelines and rules

    Hi km64, I know you've been a member of the PP community for a month, so you may not be aware of the PP posting guidelines and rules (here).

    I don't know whether the article you posted about "low-life" "Nancy Pelosi's Dirty Little Secret" is true or not and the Fox News segment didn't provide evidence or proof of intent re: withholding coronavirus funding to run Democratic fund raising ads. But I do know that others here could counter with their own incendiary partisan posts and links. The result would be unproductive, heated exchanges, hard feelings and the potential to diminish if not destroy this site and its on-line community.

    IMO, the pandemic, along with its potential economic impacts, has amplified already deep divisions within society. Add to that the 2020 US presidential, congressional and state and local elections and we have the political equivalent of a lighting a cigar while standing in a puddle of gasoline. (See Alfred Hitchock's "The Birds") 

    I'm not trying to be a censorship hardass or PC cop; I just wanted to let you know so we can maintain the integrity of this great site and community, especially during these extraordinarily challenging times. Thanks!

    *******************************************************************************

    Excerpt from PP forum guidelines and rules:

    "OFF-LIMIT TOPICS
    Regretfully, through much trial and even more error, we’ve determined that there are several topics that seem to escape the ability of otherwise careful and considerate people to discuss pleasantly in an online forum:
         Religion
         Abortion
         Politics (from a partisan standpoint or otherwise seen as pushing an agenda)
    These topics are not allowed, and any threads or posts containing them will be promptly removed. We wish it could be otherwise, but our hard-earned experience is that these topics are not worth the trouble. We appreciate your understanding."  

     

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  • Tue, Mar 03, 2020 - 5:23pm

    #10
    Durable

    Durable

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 24 2020

    Posts: 26

    Obscure Fruit may help with cytokine storm

    Anti-inflammatory effect of Poncirus trifoliata fruit through inhibition of NF-?B activation in mast cells

    Toxicology in Vitro, Volume 20, Issue 7, October 2006, Pages 1071–1076

    Abstract

    Mast cell-mediated allergic inflammation is involved in many diseases such as asthma, sinusitis, and rheumatoid arthritis. Mast cells induce synthesis and production of pro-inflammatory cytokines including tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-? and interleukin (IL)-6 with immune regulatory properties. We investigated the effect of the fruits of Poncirus trifoliata (L.) Raf (Rutaceae) (FPT) on expression of pro-inflammatory cytokines by activated human mast cell line, HMC-1. FPT dose dependently decreased the gene expression and production of TNF-? and IL-6 on phorbol 12-myristate 13-acetate (PMA) and calcium ionophore A23187-stimulated HMC-1 cells. In addition, FPT attenuated PMA and A23187-induced activation of NF-?B indicated by inhibition of degradation of I?B?, nuclear translocation of NF-?B, NF-?B/DNA binding, and NF-?B-dependent gene reporter assay. Our in vitro studies provide evidence that FPT might contribute to the treatment of mast cell-derived allergic inflammatory diseases

    Hat tip, green Deane, eat the weeds dot com

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  • Tue, Mar 03, 2020 - 5:28pm

    #11
    Lineman7

    Lineman7

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 05 2020

    Posts: 16

    Other Base Chemicals Won't be Available

    I watched a farm program last weekend. The farming community is worried there won't be basic chemical feed stocks which come from China for Ag fertilizers, herbicides, and insecticides. And projecting I would guess there won't be feedstocks for basic chemicals such as plastics and surfactants either. We better hope China comes online by the end of March.

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  • Tue, Mar 03, 2020 - 5:28pm

    #12
    boutique1976

    boutique1976

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 04 2020

    Posts: 4

    Washington

    I am in Washington state and they just updated the death toll to 9 on king 5 news 🙁 My husband and son are both FF/EMTs we are all gravely concerned at this point. All you can do is be prepared and not scared but is pretty hard not to be terrified at this point.

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  • Tue, Mar 03, 2020 - 5:34pm

    #13

    Mark Cochrane

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: May 24 2011

    Posts: 874

    Definitely not the flu

    Tony,

    In the US, between 5%-20% of people are estimated to get the flu each year. Many are immune and others partially immune because of previous infections with various strains over the years or vaccinations. Death rates are typically expected to be ~0.1%.

    This corona virus is 'novel' so no one has any immunity and obviously no vaccine exists. Estimates are that 40-70% of humanity, globally will likely catch it on the first go-around. Assuming that percentage holds in the US, even if the virus had the same mortality rate as the typical flu we would be expecting between 2 and 14 times as many deaths, even if the hospitals weren't overrun. Unfortunately the mortality rate is much higher than that of the flu. We won't know exact numbers until after all is said and done but the WHO, which has not exactly been overselling the COVID-19 virus, has now increased its mortality estimate from 2 to 3.4%. That would be 34 times as deadly as the typical flu if the numbers hold up. Higher even than the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic which had a case fatality rate of ~2.5%.

    So, with many, many more people likely to catch the coronavirus as it makes the rounds, a much, much higher complication rate and death rate, this is definitely not the flu. If we are very lucky, deaths will be in the hundreds of thousands in the US, if not then it will be in the millions. Globally it will be too much to contemplate.

    Hopefully there is an escape clause somewhere, but math doesn't tend to leave loopholes.

     

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  • Tue, Mar 03, 2020 - 5:45pm

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 660

    Chris, pls. read re: Export restrictions on APIs

    Chris, earlier today PP member Berensma provided some outstanding links and additional information about India's restrictions on APIs and formularies.  Here's my response, in which I reposted her links and pulled excerpts from the articles: https://www.peakprosperity.com/honey-badger-virus-video-update/#comment-395040

    Berensma said, “It looks like the list comprises mostly antivirals, antibiotics, antifungals, etc, as well as B vitamins.”  She apparently has professional knowledge of these pharmaceuticals, and planned to augment and post the official API/formulary list with her comments about the 26 restricted drugs and their use.

    Please check out the above link to the comment and perhaps even contact Berensma directly as I think she may have some very valuable information, expertise and insight to share. Thanks!

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  • Tue, Mar 03, 2020 - 6:22pm

    #15

    LesPhelps

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Apr 30 2009

    Posts: 607

    Quick math

    World Population 7.8 billion.
    70% of the world population gets infected.
    3.4% mortality rate.

    7,800,000,000 * 0.70 * 0.034 = 185,640,000 deaths.

    What am I doing wrong?  This can't be right.

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  • Tue, Mar 03, 2020 - 6:22pm

    green_achers

    green_achers

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 03 2009

    Posts: 40

    Clindamycin

    Please be careful with that stuff. My dentist always wants to prescribe it to me, also, but when I took it, it gave me very bad digestive effects. Now, I would probably have dutifully finished the course, anyway, but luckily for me, an MD friend of mine persuaded me not to, and gave me an Rx for doxycycline instead. After reading up on the serious permanent damage that has been done to some people by that drug, I always ask for something else.

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  • Tue, Mar 03, 2020 - 6:53pm

    Grayman

    Grayman

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 11 2020

    Posts: 27

    Re: Quick math

    World Population 7.8 billion.
    70% of the world population gets infected.
    3.4% mortality rate.
    7,800,000,000 * 0.70 * 0.034 = 185,640,000 deaths.
    What am I doing wrong? This can’t be right.

     

    Correct. Try my math.

    Population 7.8 billion

    100% get it on either the first or second or 99th wave

    3% CFR until hospitals are overwhelmed and then it rises to about 20%, especially in Africa, poorer parts of Asia and in refugee camps, prisons, old folks homes etc

    7.8 billion x .20 = 1.56 BILLION deaths in two or three years.

    How's that?

    Unless we get a vaccine first.

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  • Tue, Mar 03, 2020 - 6:57pm

    km64

    km64

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 88

    km64 said:

    Certainly not my intention to break the rules, nor act in a partisan manner. I understand the concern and will try to be more clear in the future.

    If I found something similar about Republicans I'd have posted it. This level of political B.S. just makes me sick. A pox on both their houses (which could literally happen with COVID-19)

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  • Tue, Mar 03, 2020 - 7:06pm

    Grayman

    Grayman

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 11 2020

    Posts: 27

    Re: Not the flu

    Chris seems to be making a point about Covid-19 being much more deadly than the flu and that this is the reason for emergency interest rate cuts and manufacturing shutdown in China, etc. However, isn’t it true that the flu has become normalised, which is why it doesn’t result in as much panic (unless some new virulent strain emerges) as this new virus and it is because of the general panic that what may be over-reaction is occurring?

     

    You are correct that some of the 'panic' is because of the novelty of this disease, but Chris has also made the point that shutting down half of China is not something that has ever been done before (whether in response to a normal flu or for any other reason either) and that therefore, the flow on effects of that shut down are creating supply chain problems of their own plus Fed rate cuts etc etc . But his central point is that this really is NOT the flu in terms of its basic epidemiology. It just doesn't behave the same way and its potential for mass infection and high fatality are significant differences between flu and Covid 19.

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  • Tue, Mar 03, 2020 - 7:13pm

    #20
    Nairobi

    Nairobi

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 05 2020

    Posts: 288

    Welcome to how the other half lives

    I will admit to being just a little bemused by the wringing of hands over actual and potential shortages of things like toilet paper, hand sanitizer, face masks and prepper supplies . Other than hurricane regions of the country where people have, for brief periods of time, seen supplies falling down to zero, this is a whole new experience for most North Americans who are most familiar with fully stock shelves.

    Across on the other side of the world though shortages of every imaginable product and service are ordinary and commonplace. People still manage to get by but it helps to learn patience and get used to waiting in line for items that you might think should never run low.

    Like dollars or euro for example. Just imagine not being able to find foreign currency when you need some. But that is indeed the case in a number of African nations. Or to see sugar shortages and find yourself waiting in long lines for hours for your turn to come up only to be rewarded with a meager two kilo bag. Outside of capital cities you may be unable to buy such ordinary things as yogurt, cheese, milk powder, mosquito repellant and spare parts to fix your car.

    Some shortages seem comical and are mostly irritating. The world will not end if you cannot find rubber tubes to repair your bicycle. But others can shut down industry such as the case of welding gases being unavailable when containers of full cylinders are held up in ports due to corrupt customs officials. And then there are the cases where shortages become life threatening.

    For a time in 2018 it was not possible to buy insulin in much of Kenya. People were flying or busing to neighboring countries to purchase their medications or if they had family abroad were getting it sent in by courier. I encountered so many different situations over the years I cannot even recall them all now but one of the most absurd (at least for me) was not being able to find needed sizes of Phillips screws.

    "Oh for cripes sake" I shouted at the clerk, "its not like they are gold or butter. How could you not have ordinary bloody screws in stock"! But they didn't and neither did anyone else at a prices you would be prepared to pay. I found one guy selling but because they were so scarce he would open the boxes and sell by the piece at nosebleed prices. Utterly insane.

    But of course its not the clerks fault. And its rarely the business owners fault either. The problems can be traced back to importers, supply chain disruptions, shortages of the correct currencies, import restrictions, customs bottlenecks, paperwork, corruption, labour unrest or even the rainy season. There is always a reason and there is never anything you can do about it.

    The thing about being a Westerner though and living in Africa while suffering from a lack of supply is that you can almost always find what you need if you have cash. Money makes all the difference as long as you are prepared to pay the price. But these current shortages we now face here at home feel a little different to me.

    And its because almost everybody here has enough money if they need something. So nobody has a cash advantage when a shortage erupts. Shortages in the West are not the same as shortages in Africa. If we are running low on goods or supplies here then odds are there are genuine problems somewhere that cannot be easily fixed. So its really a concern of mine that if people here begin hoarding critical supplies like medications, that across the world where the other half live there might be nothing available at all.

    Money has a way of getting what it needs and goods will flow to the centers of wealth and power. But if you are a poor Kenyan or Tanzanian who shows up next month with an easily treatable illness or dental infection that requires an antibiotic only to discover the shelves have gone bare, then he or she could be facing their maker. It is life and death where antibiotics are concerned even if some of us have forgotten that.

    If there is an important role for the World Health Organization this is probably the one where they can be most influential. Antibiotic and medication shortages resulting from the lack of economic activity in China and the new export restrictions in India are a global issue, not just an American problem.

    It would be very easy for monied interests to overpower the needs of poorer countries by simply pricing critical goods well beyond there reach via demand. We do it already without even knowing its happening but I assure you when the price of a life saving medication doubles in our neck of the woods it will mean many people will die somewhere else because they are simply unable to pay.

    It may be time to reactivate domestic laws against hoarding of supplies as distasteful as that may sound to some. Or to have international bodies begin to fashion some kind of agreements on distribution where global shortages now seem certain. I don't know which of our international organizations is best suited for the role of ensuring there is equity between nations whether that is the UN, WHO, World Bank, Red Cross, IMF or any other but it needs to be given consideration since the market by itself is mostly a pricing mechanism and fundamentally only responds to one thing....

    Dollars and cents.

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  • Tue, Mar 03, 2020 - 7:23pm

    #21
    Torii

    Torii

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 03 2020

    Posts: 25

    New Member Field Notes

    Greetings, all. Some observations:

    1. Grocery and hardware/garden stores in NC are fully stocked. Shoppers radiate no sense of urgency. However, my online “next-day deliveries” are increasingly delayed, often by as much as four days. I had to back-order a nebulizer from Amazon. Worth the wait to avoid crowds at Costco.

    2. Several local universities have recalled students studying abroad, and it is not clear that those students will quarantine before returning to area campuses. These schools also enroll an abundance of Chinese students; the latest documented return from China was January 14. Hmmm...

    3. Someone here mentioned prepaying taxes/bills. I have requested an early top-up of the propane tank that we need for the gas stove. I had to insist since we are not due to refill for another six months. I’ve also scheduled septic-tank pumping this week. Trying to think of other do-ahead jobs in this weirdly calm interval.

    4. A reminder to focus on the present and to be alert to your surroundings as you plan. I absentmindedly took a tumble two weeks ago and fractured my foot, just as I was organizing preps. Now I hobble around a three-story house on crutches and a frankenboot, not ideal. Make self-care a daily priority, even as you plan for chaos, in order to remain on your feet in a crisis.

    5. A personal note, if you will indulge me: I have been preparing for a decade, after reading Kathy Harrison’s gentle but urgent guide, Just in Case. Canned foods I bought from the LDS bishop’s storehouse in 2009, when the forecast looked dire, can sit on my shelves for another 20 years—-more satisfying than money in the bank. My family has called me an alarmist and a kook. But this past weekend, my husband apologized for once suggesting that I am mentally ill. “You may be right this time,” he admitted. Jeebus. Those of us who strive alone to protect our loved ones need resources and communities like Peak Prosperity to help us remain resolute. Thank you all for your efforts, which have inspired and reassured me over the years!

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  • Tue, Mar 03, 2020 - 7:26pm

    #22

    Jim H

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jun 08 2009

    Posts: 1105

    Antiviral properties of certain mushroom species, including Chaga

    This post regards products available from this provider in WA State (of which I have no connection);  https://hostdefense.com/products/stamets-7-capsules

    I believe the data to be more generally applicable to various similar products available at health food stores.

    I am going to summarize some information from US Patent 9,931,316 granted to Paul Stamets on April 3, 2018.  My prepping philosophy for this virus is to maximize active measures to boost my immune system.  This patent is a wealth of info., much of it anectodal, but taken together it paints a powerful picture of efficacy.

    "This inventor has found a surprising array of antiviral molecules spread amongst different families of mushrooms...."

    "The effect of the antiviral and antibacterial components with the aforementioned mushroom species and their relatives may be the decisive factor that improves survivability from infection in many animals, including humans... "

    Here are my summaries of some of the most interesting case studies given in the patent;

    -        0.25 gram per day per chicken in feed protected the entirety of an Iowa free-range chicken farm (20K birds) from a deadly wave of avian influenza in 2015 .  This farm was an island of immunity, whereas untreated chickens in surrounding areas tested positive and had to be destroyed.

    -    NIH virology testing showed multiple samples of the authors mushroom preparations as being, "highly active" against HPV.

    -   A patient with an inoperable recurrence of Merkel cell carcinoma on his liver eradicated it through a series of dietary changes and supplementation, including the Stamets-7  mushroom blend referenced above.

    -   A physician who had longstanding a Hep. C infection and was planning to take a course of pharmaceutical treatment for it was not able to get the expensive pills because his latest testing in 2015 showed zero viral load.  The only possible explanation - and one that caused this MD to document his case study and send it to the patent's author, was that his use of two 60 capsule bottles of Stamets Agarikon mushroom product, which he had taken several months before the latest test, wiped out the Hep. C.

    Best regards to all,  Jim H

     

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  • Tue, Mar 03, 2020 - 7:29pm

    Nairobi

    Nairobi

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 05 2020

    Posts: 288

    Nairobi said:

    LesPhelps, what you are doing wrong with your math is that you are applying the case fatality rate to the entire population. That rate of death only applies to people who are diagnosed critical and/or hospitalized and that percentage of all people is fortunately still relatively small. I can't recall the number right now but I think it was 5% of COVID cases that went critical and of that number, 3.4% were ultimately fatalities so the percentage of the entire population is still quite low.

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  • Tue, Mar 03, 2020 - 7:37pm

    #24

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 775

    Zinc as a preventative

    Interesting article, fact checking a covid19 list on the internet.

    https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/zinc-lozenges-coronavirus/

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  • Tue, Mar 03, 2020 - 7:41pm

    #25

    pinecarr

    Status: Gold Member

    Joined: Apr 13 2008

    Posts: 1124

    Sh1t's starting to get real here, too

    My sister, from a big city out west, just texted to ask if I'd heard about the 2 cases of the honey-badger virus (aka COVID-19) in little Rome, NY (in Central NY, near where I live).  I checked quickly on-line, and the cases haven't been confirmed yet. But they are being tested, and have the right symptoms, and recent travel to a country with the outbreak.

    Thanks for the advanced warning, Chris!

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  • Tue, Mar 03, 2020 - 7:45pm

    #26

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 775

    Hidden Economic Problem - Who Pays When The Government Quarantines You?

    Use the browser Brave if you can't access this article (it often lets you get articles behind paywalls and "no ad blocker" filters:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/29/upshot/coronavirus-surprise-medical-bills.html

    I expect that the Health Insurance lobbyists are working overtime to get the government to expand Medicare to cover the cost of testing and treatment of this virus. Never pay for something if you can get the government to.

    ---

    ADDED: I noticed this comment:

    "When people without good insurance coverage get wind of the notion that getting caught up in a quarantine might cost them tens of thousands of dollars, the US will have a significant number of residents working in the service industry who understand they MUST evade testing and quarantine. And who could blame them? It would be virtually instant bankruptcy. I'm sure that won't affect the spread of COVID-19."

    It is really going to get bad here, isn't it?

    Can't wait to see how the politicians start spinning this when 5% of the American population is in the hospital facing massive bills for treatment. Forget capitalism vs socialism, the #1 issue this November is going to be healthcare.

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  • Tue, Mar 03, 2020 - 7:52pm

    #27
    Jo Taylor

    Jo Taylor

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 07 2020

    Posts: 9

    The moral of the story will be; don't follow the WHO's advice

    New Zealand has at least one more case from Italy. The advice from the WHO, which the Government is following is downright dangerous.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12313758

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  • Tue, Mar 03, 2020 - 7:55pm

    yogmonster

    yogmonster

    Status: Member

    Joined: Apr 01 2013

    Posts: 46

    Case fatality rate. Also link to population mortality rate.

    https://www.britannica.com/science/case-fatality-rate

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  • Tue, Mar 03, 2020 - 8:08pm

    #29
    Bren

    Bren

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 27 2020

    Posts: 19

    Observations in SE Wisconsin

    In an attempt to add to my modest supply of Sambucol's Black Elderberry, I called my local Costco to verify that it was in stock. Luckily, Costco still had over 20 units on hand. One can buy a two 7.8 oz bottle pack of the "Immune Support Syrup" for 25 dollars - a significant savings per once when compared to the smaller varient of the product sold at the nearby Target.

    However, unlike other locations in the US, the manager disclosed that his store will likely run out of the remaining sanitary products such as toilet paper by tomorrow. Apparently his store had long since sold out of thermometers and recently sold its last Clorox wipes.

    The store is located in Grafton, Wisconsin, which itself lies within the northern part of the greater Milwaukee metropolitan area.

    As a more personal observation, my teenage daughter just asked if she could have a mask, a small hand sanitizer bottle and a travel pack of wipes for her upcoming class trip to our nation's capitol. This is the same middle schooler who gingerly questioned/made fun of such purchases just weeks before.

    Although I am concerned about her future travels, I wonder to what extent will the growing acknowledgement of the novel coronavirus impact society during the coming weeks as ever larger daily case numbers emerge.

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  • Tue, Mar 03, 2020 - 8:12pm

    scottyboy

    scottyboy

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 04 2020

    Posts: 2

    scottyboy said:

    I believe that the death rate applies to all of those who are confirmed to be infected.

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  • Tue, Mar 03, 2020 - 8:15pm

    sofistek

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Oct 02 2008

    Posts: 668

    Flu comparison

    Hi Mark,

    Good to hear from you again (I don't pop in here very often). Thanks for the numbers. Regarding the death rate, yes, from the official numbers it does seem as though the rate is over 3%, though for many weeks it seemed to be consistently just over 2%. It'd be interesting to know why that percentage rose in recent weeks. However, that is just relative to known cases. Presumably, there must be many cases where there are no apparent symptoms or where the symptoms are so mild that they aren't getting picked up. I don't know how this compares to the flu, in that respect.

    Again, thanks (I think) for re-emphasising the seriousness of this and I'll be following Chris's updates.

    Tony

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  • Tue, Mar 03, 2020 - 8:17pm

    scottyboy

    scottyboy

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    Joined: Mar 04 2020

    Posts: 2

    On the death rate of virus

    I believe that the death rate as stated by WHO, refers to 3.4% of those who are confirmed to have contracted the virus.

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  • Tue, Mar 03, 2020 - 8:32pm

    Copper’s Hu-mom

    Copper’s Hu-mom

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    Joined: Feb 01 2020

    Posts: 38

    To Pinecarr

    Please keep posting about the Little Rome outbreak. Not from Rome, but I was born and raised in CNY and still have family there. Beautiful part about of the world. Watch out for the crowds at Wegmans.

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  • Tue, Mar 03, 2020 - 8:32pm

    #34
    amyq

    amyq

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    Joined: Feb 27 2020

    Posts: 3

    on the death rate

    I constantly hear references to the large number of mild cases that go unreported which would lower the death rate...   but we can't forget the vast number of folks in China dying at home and not being counted.  In the interview with a crematorium manager the percentage of people dying at home was 60%...   also causes of death were listed as pneumonia...  many factors could be contributing to an artificially low death rate as well.

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  • Tue, Mar 03, 2020 - 8:39pm

    #35
    kunga

    kunga

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 26 2017

    Posts: 302

    Quarantine

    Some may be forced into quarantine and some, like myself will go voluntarily, hopefully before contracting the virus.  I just was in a post operative hip replacement with bone grafts, recovery at home,  for 12 weeks of very limited mobility.  I had stocked up before flying out of state.  I have support people I could call, but I am stubbornly independent and did OK on my own.  Read, watched movies, exercised, stationary bike, actually completed my taxes early.  I am now restocked.

    Not to get religious, here, but many spiritually minded people, monks, nuns, Buddhists, Christians, etc., prepare for and go into prayer ful retreats, with others or alone that can last years.  Consider people in solitary confinement, all over the world.  If you can have an attitude adjustment, and get ready, this time could actually be a blessing.  Thank you for all videos and helpful ideas.

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  • Tue, Mar 03, 2020 - 8:45pm

    Copper’s Hu-mom

    Copper’s Hu-mom

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    Joined: Feb 01 2020

    Posts: 38

    To Bren

    Get thee to Woodmans.  Not sure about the one near Pleasant Prairie but the new one in Volo IL was well stocked yesterday. They also have good prices on vitamins, lozenges, etc. They also had cheap stock disposable food service gloves in the dishwashing detergent area. N95 masks were gone.

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  • Tue, Mar 03, 2020 - 8:49pm

    Copper’s Hu-mom

    Copper’s Hu-mom

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 01 2020

    Posts: 38

    Death rate in China

    I don’t suppose any of the people welded into their apartments are going  to be let out?  How many of them have died?

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  • Tue, Mar 03, 2020 - 8:52pm

    #38
    FooBarr

    FooBarr

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    Joined: Oct 21 2010

    Posts: 51

    dtrammel: Could you add a comment with links to your mega threads?

    Pretty please?  I've lost track in which vids you dropped links in the comment section.  I'm need to go back and word search some things.  thanks

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  • Tue, Mar 03, 2020 - 9:05pm

    kunga

    kunga

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 26 2017

    Posts: 302

    Mushrooms

    I take Stamet's mushroom products, good stuff.  I think even button mushrooms have health value. I try to eat two cups of buttonmushrooms (16 oz) per week in my steamed veggies.

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  • Tue, Mar 03, 2020 - 9:36pm

    #40

    westcoastjan

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jun 04 2012

    Posts: 387

    BC update evening March 3rd - uh oh

    Not sure if this was already posted here somewhere:

    B.C. confirms 4 new cases of COVID-19, provincial total climbs to 12

    4 new cases 🙁   I fear it is moving from the case, case, case to cluster - the prelude to exponential, as Chris described the pattern. Lord I hope not...

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  • Tue, Mar 03, 2020 - 10:02pm

    #41
    nordicjack

    nordicjack

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    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 405

    pissing match going on -who is at fault in the US for not testing

    Drs and CDC are at odds too who's fault it is for not testing enough or earlier. The cdc is insisting it has always been up to the drs - they said their patients didnt meet the criteria. Its sort of both at fault. First, it is always the drs responsibility. The criteria is more or less a guideline but testing was more or less not available. However, even though the criteria is a guide the cdc has more or less enforced it as rule based on drs testimony. But for a week or so, not more the CDC did add to its criteria that it includes people that are symptomatic and require hospitalization that have no known asssoication with travel or contact.. if other causes have been ruled out. So the CDC is correct, but its only really for about a week or so. The clinicians are ultimately responsible and if it were , I and i could not get a test. I would make a clinical diagnosis if that were my assumption. Drs use differential diagnosis all the time - its part of the process and once all things are excluded , the diagnosis is made.. right or wrong.. period - and that is the drs responsibility.. once ruling all exclusions out and being left with the only likely cause.. the diagnosis is self evident. the test is only a secondary confirmation at that moment. hence confirmed cases vs cases and presumptive cases etc.. which we are seeing now.. we could have seen these presumtive cases a month ago if the drs looked for the right presentation and drew on information given by other countries.

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  • Tue, Mar 03, 2020 - 10:17pm

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 775

    Staggering to think

    That in a year we could be just numb to the fact that millions (or even just hundreds of thousands ) of people had died, like it was just something that happens.

    World Population 7.8 billion.
    70% of the world population gets infected.
    3.4% mortality rate.

    7,800,000,000 * 0.70 * 0.034 = 185,640,000 deaths.

    What am I doing wrong?  This can’t be right.

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  • Tue, Mar 03, 2020 - 10:36pm

    #43
    Bren

    Bren

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    Joined: Feb 27 2020

    Posts: 19

    My humble two cents and a thank you...

    First: Thank you Copper's Hu-mom for your shopping suggestions. I thankfully purchased the vast majority of the necessary preparation items throughout the previous month, specially after the first confirmed case was recorded in Madison in early to mid February. I added thereafter as sales took place. But a visit to Woodmans would be warranted as I have likely overlooked something.

    Second: With regards to the death rate, I honestly believe the dreaded number will fluctuate considerably across the geography of preparedness or lack thereof as exhibited by the local entities with agency over their respective communities' affairs. As depicted in the historical documentary about the Spanish flu cited below, the manner of addressing the eventual outbreaks of the novel coronavirus by local authorities of the present day will either be praised or derided by future historians. In the documentary, the reactive actions of officials in Philadelphia and proactive measures taken in San Francisco were examined. I just hope that we do not witness in this country a desperate daughter crying out for help for her dying mother from the balcony of her presumably quarantined appartment as was the case recently in Wuhan.

     

     

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  • Tue, Mar 03, 2020 - 10:41pm

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 660

    Nairobi, WHO (or some other "altruistic, trustworthy" entity) decides?

    Nairobi, I appreciate your observations regarding Westerners' advantaged access to resources, largely made possible (IMO) by the US dollar's status as world reserve currency (for now). So when competition for very limited supplies ensues worldwide, "monied interests" are in a position to "hoard" or at least meet their needs, often at the expense of those in poorer countries without access and cash.

    IMO, this true to some extent.  However, I believe that "monied interests" regardless of country have and always will be in the best position to secure comfortable and lifesaving resources. But living in the US does not in itself confer privilege. There are many people in the US that already do not have access or cash to get the medical care, medicines, nutritious food, or other resources even when supplies are sufficient, let alone when there's acute shortages and sustained demand.

    You said, "It may be time to reactivate domestic laws against hoarding of supplies as distasteful as that may sound to some. Or to have international bodies begin to fashion some kind of agreements on distribution where global shortages now seem certain. I don’t know which of our international organizations is best suited for the role of ensuring there is equity between nations whether that is the UN, WHO, World Bank, Red Cross, IMF or any other but it needs to be given consideration since the market by itself is mostly a pricing mechanism and fundamentally only responds to one thing….Dollars and cents."

    Without going into a deep dive on this, I think market dynamics have been corrupted by Central Banks for decades. The ""markets"" no longer function as price discovery mechanisms, and supply and demand for many commodities are influenced by subsidies, price controls and other manipulations.

    Though the concept of empowering a designated entity or partnership to ensure equitable (re)distribution of limited medical/health resources during a crisis may seem like a solution to the problem of inequitable access, I can see some problems with that approach. (Note that some would consider this a significant step towards "One World Government".)

    Among the entities you've listed above, there's some evidence and concern that bias and/or corruption influences their membership composition, decision-making and allocation of resources. Despite their non-profit, pubic or NGO status and altruistic missions, the above entities have also been known to be motivated by "dollars and cents" and not necessarily in the public's interest. So maybe your suggested approach would be an improvement over existing market dynamics, but ensuring capable oversight by an unbiased, trustworthy entity might be very, very difficult.

    As far as hoarding laws, they may work for some but there are always the privileged that can still get more than their "fair share" of the allotted resource. For example, China has strict laws against hoarding. These laws sometimes harm its citizens' abilities to secure basic necessities beyond state-approved levels, and increases and ensures citizens' dependence upon the state for their needs.

    Yet it is well known that higher-ups in the CCP and at various levels of government or corporations can be privileged to receive more or better quality than their state-designated allotments. This happens with countries and causes as well:  some are more "equal" (i.e., favored, privileged) than others.

    I really don't have any satisfactory solutions to the serious problems you've identified. But I do have misgivings about whether the solutions you've suggested would effectively solve those problems, exacerbate existing problems and/or create a host of other problems.

    Nairobi, the important issues you've raised also have implications for dealing with looming acute shortages in other life sustaining commodities, such as grains and water. Historically, such shortages and inequality have led to resource wars and regime change.

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  • Tue, Mar 03, 2020 - 11:06pm

    #45
    ezlxq1949

    ezlxq1949

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Apr 29 2009

    Posts: 343

    COVID-19 seeping into Australia

    Our health officials don't trust the WHO and implemented various measures well ahead of the WHO's recommendations. I expect the proven remedies available NOW — chloroquine phosphate, intravenous Vit C — NOT to be deployed. The Holy Grail seems to be a for-profit vaccine.

    Friends of ours visiting Sydney reported today that toilet paper has vanished from the supermarket shelves. They roamed widely but found none. One gouger advertised TP at $1,000 per roll on Gumtree (a local eBay clone). Hope he develops a strong need to use up his own TP, if you see what I mean. Meanwhile, in Canberra today we found ample TP on the supermarket shelves and no panics. Depends where you are. Even mailed a box of TP (in disguise) to our Sydney friends to tide them over. Hope it isn't purloined en route!

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  • Tue, Mar 03, 2020 - 11:07pm

    #46
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 660

    Is it just me or are others unable to register "thumbs-up" votes?

    Chris mentioned that the "thumbs-up" vote button was inadvertently disabled during a recent upgrade to the site and they were working on a fix. I noticed some up votes on this thread. (Yeah!) I vote, get the green "thanks!" comment, but my vote doesn't register. (Oh crap!)

    Is this happening to others, or just me?

    I'm beginning to feel I'm really "special" or I pissed someone off royally. 🙁

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  • Tue, Mar 03, 2020 - 11:08pm

    VeganDB12

    VeganDB12

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 18 2008

    Posts: 201

    finger pointing

    Nordicjack

    I appreciate your posts and hear your point on this but still think you are being unfair  You are entitled to your opinion.  Doctors are expected to follow CDC guidelines as most health departments (which license physicians) also follow them.  There are instances where you can test for every virus and still not know if it is Corona or not (especially with overseas travelers).  Placing people on quarantine inappropriately also hurts patients and their families.  They were following standard of care, in some cases begged for testing capability and still cared for the sick who came in despite their concerns.  Believe me the health care workers including doctors want to have a correct diagnosis in this situation. Right now in suburban New York we have a group of healthcare workers on quarantine and their families are at risk too. When things hit the fan people in retirement and people who have recovered will be called to take care of the rest of you if needed.  Police and EMS will still respond to calls too. Many doctors, NP's and PA's would already be testing if they had the materials. It is obvious a decision was made to postpone by some higher authority, possibly because diagnosing means hospital closures and law suits.  Still I can see why the malpractice providers are worried about this one, doctors are always seen as being in charge.  Sadly they no longer are but still get the blame.   This will get ugly but why go after the people who are trying to help out?

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  • Tue, Mar 03, 2020 - 11:32pm

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 660

    km64, No Worries!

    Hey km64, No worries! I've appreciated your posts, including your links to some great resources.  And I agree:  A pox on both houses!

    Take care and keep posting. 🙂

    PS:  I tried to give you a "thumbs-up" on several of your posts but the system isn't working for me still. Soon, I hope....

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  • Tue, Mar 03, 2020 - 11:43pm

    #49
    nordicjack

    nordicjack

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 405

    Re standard of care

    I think all presenting patients should be treated based on their presenting symptoms and biochemical labs. Whether the flu, corona virus or new or rare infection, the treatment should be exactly the same for causative pneumonia, sepsis , shock , inflammation etc.. As to how one interprets the level of infection, and what protective measures need to be taken. I am not sure one needs to cordon off the town , hospital , etc is a matter of discretion.. Unless the govt knnows something about this we dont. I dont think it calls for this type of action. We certainly wouldnt do it for the flu. Now , dont get me wrong , I think this is a bigger problem than the flu, However, basic infection control is practiced in the hospital all the time. If you have 100 people an hour running into the hospital you need to change your actions from one coming in a week. The measures taken in china were taken after there was problem. I am not saying wait this long, but don't over do it when we have fires kindled but not burning out of control. Do nothing to identify those ignitions and you will have raging fire, but you dont dump your entire water supply on a spark.

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 2:04am

    gyrogearloose

    Status: Gold Member

    Joined: Sep 08 2008

    Posts: 414

    His math is good

    the WHO 3.4  (was 2 yesterday ) is the number of people out of 100 that are diagnosed with it that die.  this can be confirmed by looking at the total cases and the total deaths. A couple of days ago it was 3000 dead 87000 cases or just over 3 % death rate ( by their bad math )

    For cases that go critical in hospital the rate is 66%

    However in other posts of mine I go through the math and get a death rate of  8.9%

    The WHO number is worked out without accounting for the fact that the people who were diagnosed in the last week have not yet had the time to die, but will.

    The WHO method gives an artificially low rate while numbers are in the growth phase and it will keep increasing as the growth curve flattens and will do so until there are no new cases.

     

    Given how obvious this discrepancy is  it might be deliberate in a miss guided attempt to avoid panic. But I have a good bovine fecal matter detector......

    Regards Hamish

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 2:18am

    cheapseats

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 27 2019

    Posts: 25

    Staggering to think

    Dtrammel

    World Population 7.8 billion.
    70% of the world population gets infected.
    3.4% mortality rate.

    7,800,000,000 * 0.70 * 0.034 = 185,640,000 deaths.

    What am I doing wrong?  This can’t be right.

    These worst case numbers are catastrophic.  Even half the worst case is catastrophic. The effects on the economy, politics and society are almost unimaginable if this comes to pass.  As I see it we need luck, divine intervention or an early and effective vaccine.

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 3:06am

    #52
    ezlxq1949

    ezlxq1949

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Apr 29 2009

    Posts: 343

    We have treatments available NOW

    In many threads and many places and other websites (e.g. Automatic Earth) it is being pointed out with increasing frequency that (allegedly) safe, effective and inexpensive treatments are readily available: chloroquine phosphate and intravenous Vitamin C.

    I fully expect these to be sidelined, denigrated, ignored. Yes, it's hard being a cynic.

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 3:14am

    #53
    nigel

    nigel

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Apr 15 2009

    Posts: 121

    Les, you could adjust your numbers slightly

    You put in a rate of infection of 70%, we have two case studies in the rates on infection, the Korean Church which had an infection rate of 81% (when adding the two groups symptomatic and asymptomatic) and we had the Diamond (distaster) princess which had an infection rate of 18.9%, the difference being one where no measures were taken to control the virus and the other where efforts were taken. This makes your upper estimate much worse, and your lower estimate much better.

    I get my cfr from https://wuflu.live which Chris linked to a few days back, and it says now the cfr is 3.4 but that is a lagging indicator that assumes that China has completely transparent numbers. It will go higher as the death rate catches up in South Korea, Iran and Italy.

    I think your number will work out in reality to be much lower but still so high as to be shocking beyond the belief of anyone with compassion.

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 3:31am

    Nairobi

    Nairobi

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 05 2020

    Posts: 288

    Let cool heads prevail. Panic buying and hoarding are harmful to everyone.

    Thanks Sparky, lets just hope that the Chinese get back on line quickly since their production is critical to not only our well being but also to India's ability to produce and supply medications. Both those countries have far more importance to our way of life than many of us knew a few short weeks ago.

    I will admit I was stunned to hear that the vast majority of all our antibiotics and for that matter medications of all kind are produced in such a few foreign locations. Upon confronting the implications of that it led me to realize what a disaster it is for poorer nations who will be entirely unable to procure essential goods when wealthy countries are dealing with their own emergencies.

    What is happening right now is equivalent to a world war in many respects as supply lines are broken across the globe, airlines grounded, shipping frozen, borders closed, cities under lock down and mayhem in hospitals as emergencies break out in hot spots across the world.

    It is unbelievable too and I think most people are in a state of shock and disbelief. What do you mean we can't fly away on holidays? Are you kidding there are no more of XYZ supplies in the shops or that nobody can safely travel to conventions, weddings, funerals, football matches or business meetings?

    The whole thing is surreal. In the background you, like me, must have a sense of how deeply this is going to affect every aspect of our lives if the economy does not come back online in full quickly. Besides the many deaths that are being reported the wheels of the economy are at risk of decoupling from the wagon altogether. Unemployment could soar, banks will fail, debtors will default and business will close.

    Are we actually on the brink of a worldwide depression unfolding?

    And naturally I cannot help but think of friends overseas who were unable to meet their own needs even during times of a healthy economy. There is no question Africa is poor and shortages are always a threat but these kinds of shortages cast a great cloud over everything there. I have no idea who will advocate for them if they don't speak up for themselves but personally I will not buy anything I don't need given that we know very serious shortages are developing and may become acute across the globe as this illness gains ground.

    I suppose I just wrote that earlier post to remind people that as we (they) are busy snapping up the last vials and bottles of medications at a time when our two major suppliers (China and India) are offline that we keep in the back of our minds what we actually need and not needlessly purchase and store up goods that others may require urgently. Serious shortages mean that there will be equally serious price hikes coming too.

    We will be OK but others will really suffer. I was in East Africa during the wheat price spike of 2008 and I can tell you it was no joke. People who were normally struggling on a poor diet were in crisis as the price of grains skyrocketed. It's not an experience any of us would tolerate well but Africans seemed to mostly take it in stride and people I knew and met had dropped back to a single meagre meal a day.

    How much worse will it be when they can't get medical help either because even basic supplies run out? Fortunately there has been some money freed up by the World Bank and it may go to debt forgiveness and the WHO apparently has some billions specifically earmarked for the poorest countries.

    We all need to take a deep breathe and calm down though. I don't like what I am reading about empty store shelves and panic buying of critical goods. It hurts everyone and its really not necessary. It's not like most of us can avoid this Corona anyway. It will circle the globe until it runs out of hosts and burns itself out even if that takes a few seasons. Its time we just adjusted to that reality and went back to trying to lead our lives as normally as possible without the panic that is suddenly starting in some places.

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 3:41am

    drbrucedale

    drbrucedale

    Status: Member

    Joined: Sep 06 2009

    Posts: 93

    numbers will be numbers

    dtrammel....Yes, your math is correct.  World population in 1920 was about 2 billion, roughly one fourth of today's population. Somewhere  between 20 and 50 million people died of the Spanish flu back then. Multiply those numbers by 4 and you get 80 to 200 million deaths today... so your calculation is within the range.  Sobering to say the very least. Prepare and pray.

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 3:45am

    pinecarr

    Status: Gold Member

    Joined: Apr 13 2008

    Posts: 1124

    Potential Central NY (CNY) Cases

    Will do, Copper's Hu-mom.  I listened to the local news last night to catch their story on the people being tested in CNY, and there's supposed to be a press conference on it today.  Apparently a couple of people are being monitored in Buffalo as well.

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 3:49am

    #57
    Nairobi

    Nairobi

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 05 2020

    Posts: 288

    Yes, I think that hoarding should be illegal

    In Canada we have a thing called the War Measures Act that could be brought back into law during a national state of emergency brought about by a pandemic and acute shortages. The last time it was invoked was during Pierre Elliot Trudeau's tenure at the time of the 1970's October Crisis. The act gives the government sweeping powers that might normally not be considered legal during times of peace and that could include rationing if necessary. I don't know what the American equivalent is but we can probably anticipate States of Emergency being declared in some jurisdictions depending on how bad things get. Everything is on the table now isn't it? If China is our blueprint I think we should expect the unexpected.

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 4:18am

    Mary59

    Mary59

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 09 2020

    Posts: 33

    Chloroquine and C

    My husband ex husband and two friends all went on chloroquine Sunday.  I took this drug in 1983 for five months when living in rual Kenya.  I understand the drug is 70 years old.  Im 60 and normally take aspirin only so for me to go on pills, is a big deal.  I have worked internationally and alot of people I know have taken chloroquine for long periods.  Everyone needs to make sure that they can take any drug of course re allergies or contraindications.

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 4:32am

    #59
    Sharon Coe

    Sharon Coe

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2020

    Posts: 2

    Monolaurin

    I am a pharmacist and I have decided to take Monolaurin 600 mg twos capsules twice a day for prevention and if I start feeling sick I will increase it to 3 capsules three times a day. If I feel ill I will also add vitamin d 1.25 (50,000) . I am a pharmacist in South Carolina living in the port city of Charleston. We have no confirmed cases yet but I also don’t think we have tested anyone. My plan is to not get it but I feel like it is important for me to continue going to work, although I am terrified of catching it.

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 4:52am

    Vilbas

    Vilbas

    Status: Member

    Joined: Aug 14 2014

    Posts: 32

    Vilbas said:

    It just so happens that Pelosi was not holding up a vote and the person making it knew she wasn't because negotiations were ongoing and they knew that. The only ones who have bungled this are the trump admin. That's not politics, just the reality.

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 5:17am

    #61
    Dutchman

    Dutchman

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 12 2020

    Posts: 5

    The Netherlands is going exponential since first case on Feb 27th

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 5:20am

    Kat43

    Kat43

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 10 2020

    Posts: 38

    Clindamycin

    ...lead to my husband's death.  He wasn't cautioned to protect his microbiome.  As too often happens with Clindamycin, he developed C. diff.  The accompanying diarrhea dehydrated him.  The dehydration triggered a heart attack, that likely was going to come but not that soon.  The very good hospital mismanaged his bypass surgery (oxygen therapy he never should have had) which exascerbated the congestive heart failure started by the extended heart attack.  He lasted another 3 years but with diminished quality of life.  A cascade of unfortunate events.  Beware the broad spectrum antibiotics.

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 5:21am

    #63

    Oliveoilguy

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jun 29 2012

    Posts: 672

    Self Quarantine in Washington State

    A friend living 10 miles from the nursing home in Kirkland Washington is about to start self quarantine for her own safety. I have introduced her to PP and hope to get her to share her story as it evolves.

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 5:26am

    km64

    km64

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 88

    km64 said:

    Same here, clicked on the thumbs up, got the green message box, but the counter didn't go up.

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 5:28am

    Kat43

    Kat43

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 10 2020

    Posts: 38

    To Nairobi on the issue of stocking up

    Much of what I have stocked is simply so I can avoid standing in lines or other crowd exposures over the next few months.  I go to two grocery stores, one only to purchase non-perishables.  I have no need to enter that store now.  Whatever threat it might have represented to me is completely off the books.  The grocery store where I buy fresh produce I expect to continue to frequent as long as I can.  If that seems unadvisable at some point, I am covered by the irrational amount of pitted prunes I accumulated, the one area I confess I have hoarded, LOL.

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 5:29am

    #66
    DanielleW

    DanielleW

    Status: Member

    Joined: Aug 16 2016

    Posts: 9

    I’m enjoying seeing locations and my last SAMs run....

    I’m enjoying seeing what people are experiencing in different parts of the country. I grew up about 2 hours north of Rome, NY so keep the posts coming 😉

    I went to Hawaii with my mom last week- it was calm in the US when we left but while we were there the state of Hawaii made the announcement about preparing. Needless to say I was happy to be getting back home to my preps!!!!
    I finally made it to sams last night for my final run and was shocked..... customers were calm but everyone had water, TP, rice, beans and other preps. They were out of hand sanitizer, Lysol, and lots of other things. Seeing the overhead bins empty was kind of sobering.

    Also, quick side note.... I was sooo glad I had been preparing and had also acted on one of Chris’s posts from 2018?? About being ready for nuclear (???) warfare as I was pretty much ready based on that (already had lots of masks etc). So THANK YOU Chris and Adam for sounding the alarms....your work is greatly appreciated and has made a difference in my (and my families) life.

    torii- what part of NC are you in?

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 5:34am

    #67
    Desogames

    Desogames

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 210

    Just realised something disturbing

    I think the Italian strain is Far more virulent then the Chinese one.

    (I'm doing MUCH better now btw, think i'm over the hump. My brain's returned to normal, atleast. I'm not even gonna wait for the doctors anymore, never had a flu that stopped my heart. Anyway).

    I was just making this point to a friend of mine because i detect patterns and i feel something off about the Italian strain spreading. It is spreading far faster and wider then the Chinese strain, and i've got some preliminairy data to consider thanks to the restrictive dutch policy that might point towards this fact.

    Here's my point:
    In Hubei province, we have 67332 cases confirmed, while in next door Shaanxi province, we have 245 cases confirmed. While the Chinese are clearly lying, the key to truth is hidden in the pattern of lies; It is fair to assume that either:
    1. China lies equally across all provinces
    2. China lies More about Hubei then the rest, as there's more to hide in Hubei.

    If either of these points are true; we can still use the Ratio of the data, even if the flat numbers are false.

    In this case, the ratio is 67332/245=274.82 times more cases in Hubei then in Shaanxi.

    Then we look at Europe, and treat the individual countries as Provinces to more or less get comparable sizes/distances. Of course there are major differences; but those only come into play if the data is too close to tell: If it's not obvious, dig deeper.

    Currently the Netherlands is only testing people who've been to Italy (still). We have 38 cases as of today, 36 of which went to italy (and the last 2 being family of the first case). Italy has 2502 cases at time of writing.

    In this case we can assume the reverse of China; that both countries are equally truthfully reporting all cases found. As it's become clear that, if these countries want to hide the problem, they simply very much restrict the definition of who is allowed to get a test. But this also helps us in this case; as we're only interested in the sick dutch people who've been to Italy recently. With how virulent this thing is; we can safely assume that if the confirmed cases had not been found they would've lead to local infections.

    So that makes the Chinese data and Italian data comparable, through the dutch testing. And in this case: 2502/36= 69.5 times.

    With a ratio of 274.86 vs 69.5, that'd mean the italian variant is 3.95 times as virulent!

    If it's not, we have to wonder why Shaanxi ended up with so few infections. All of Hubei's neighbours did, compared to how fast it's going in europe. Hubei has about 50 times the confirmed cases of Guangdong, the 2nd on the list, while Germany has 2502/244= 10.2 times as few cases as Italy.

    And the Italian strain has been spreading for a far, far shorter a time period. True; China threw everything on lockdown the moment they realised the problem, as well the Italians should have, so that skews the data a little. Even so the Italian strain is popping up in too many countries too fast.

    Finally there's the question of "Well maybe the Chinese strain has always been this virulent and they where just lying about it" but there's a problem with that; real world data doesn't line up. If that where the case, the hospitals in Italy would have to be under as much strain as the hospitals in Wuhan, to put the strain on the Dutch hospitals that those few cases did.

    In simpler terms; I didn't read or hear any Shaanxi hospitals becoming overloaded. Only the Wuhan ones. If the ratio of Italy/Netherlands is higher then Wuhan/Shaanxi, and no hospitals in the first ratio are overloaded, while the second ratio has the Wuhan hospitals overloaded....

    Well the only logical conclusion left is that the Italian strain is more Virulent.

    As i said it's early data as it's mostly based on logic. But hey i'll take anything i can get in this fast moving situation. It uses some large assumptions, true; but even if we assume 2 to 6 times as virulent as China (so a HUGE error margin), we still come to a higher then 1 times as virulent value. That's why i say we don't need to know everything precisely, as the problem is too big for that to matter. As it stands at the moment.

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 5:43am

    #68
    samiam15063

    samiam15063

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 02 2020

    Posts: 2

    Looks like China Claims it has mutated

    I new here not sure if I am sharing in the right tread but I thought this was an interesting find. Lets hope it doesnt get worse.

    https://nypost.com/2020/03/04/chinese-researchers-say-2-types-of-coronavirus-could-be-infecting-people/

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 5:44am

    Ision

    Ision

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 07 2020

    Posts: 104

    Well, At Least One May Have Luck...

    Unfortunately, we will not get an early and effective vaccine for SARS-CoV-2.  But, we will get early, ineffective, vaccines, and discover these only enhance this pathogen to kill, instead of protecting, people, as the result of problems, like ADE.

    We are still without effective vaccines for SARS coronavirus, and many other viral pathogens, after years and years of trying.

    Divine Intervention?  This we have already had.  This is WHY Existence includes viral pathogens, in the first place, and why they make us sick and kill us.  In fact, this is why death even exists.  Divine Will is responsible for the death of everything, which has ever died, everywhere in Existence, for all time...by deliberate design.

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 5:46am

    #70

    George Karpouzis

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 17 2009

    Posts: 184

    CFR is less than 3.4 percent

    WHO numbers are wrong.

    Perfect example is korea with its .7 percent CFR

    They have tested 60k people to come up with 5800 infections. No one else has come close.

    Proactive Korea vs Reactive Italy

    italy has 2500 cases 79 dead for 3 percent CFR. But Italy is responsible for so many infections outside of it so it’s safe to assume Italy has realistically 20000 cases maybe even 30,000 cases

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 5:53am

    #71
    mikeskaggs

    mikeskaggs

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2020

    Posts: 2

    Here's what Im monitoring here in Ft Worth to determine when it hits the fan

    Hospital wait times.  When I see these spike dramatically, then I will know

     

    https://www.hospitalstats.org/ER-Wait-Time/search?zip=76131&distance=30

     

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 6:00am

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 1018

    Luck and Odds

    I agree Ision.

    Ecclesiastes 3 King James Version

    3 To every thing there is a season, and a time to every purpose under the heaven:

    2 A time to be born, and a time to die; a time to plant, and a time to pluck up that which is planted;

    —————-

    And as thc0655 liked to say in his tagline (from the books The Hunger Games)

    “Happy Hunger Games! And May The Odds Be Ever In Your Favor”

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 6:00am

    Ision

    Ision

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 07 2020

    Posts: 104

    China's Welded Doors...

    I would say ALL of those people forced into their apartments and welded inside...are either dead, or close to it, at this time.  These people were imprisoned in their homes, as they were already infected with the virus.   Since these people would be completely cut off from ANY food, ANY medical aid, ANY over-the-counter drugs, and ANY help, whatsoever...they would need to have survived COVID-19, and had enough food in their tiny home for a month.      This is not likely.

    Now, who would be the Chinese fellow, whose job it is to go an OPEN UP these sealed apartments, after three, or four weeks?   What sights do you think this fellow would enjoy?

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 6:12am

    BillL

    BillL

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 15 2020

    Posts: 115

    Who cares about the big farmers...I don't.

    Let it burn to the ground.  People need a huge awakening about where their food comes from.  Let them starve if they can't figure it out.

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 6:19am

    #75

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 1018

    Big Farms

    BillL being a small farmer is exhausting, back-breaking work.  Most people will never make the transition.

    Perhaps thats your point.

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 6:21am

    BillL

    BillL

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 15 2020

    Posts: 115

    64...some people can't just can get out of the left/right thing here.

    Nothing wrong with what you posted.

    Just a picture of a person who claims to know what is best for you, acts like a spoiled child, can't deal with any issue, creates tremendous wealth for herself and her masters, and sits in the 3rd highest position in our country.

    Now waiting for my turn to be scolded...again.

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 6:36am

    LesPhelps

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Apr 30 2009

    Posts: 607

    I don’t think so

    CFR, case fatality rate, according to Britain a, is calculated using everyone diagnosed with the illness, not the subset most affected.

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 6:42am

    BillL

    BillL

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 15 2020

    Posts: 115

    Ision...In pretty much full agreement with you.

    I'll deal with the ramifications when it is presented to me and mine.  I think it's a survival of the fittest thing...or lucky lol!

    As Aunt Pearl used to joke..."If ya got luck, shit'll do for brains."

    Never understood that until now.  😉

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 6:45am

    Cj Sloane

    Cj Sloane

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 19 2020

    Posts: 15

    Cj Sloane said:

    Can you explain what you intend to use the nebulizer for?

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 6:48am

    Ision

    Ision

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 07 2020

    Posts: 104

    Pandemic Death Rate

    Death rates will always change, as the variables surrounding them change, and how one decides which death applies, and which do not.

    The death rate in one environment, or locality, shall be different from the death rate of another, for the same pathogen.  There really is no universal death rate for any pathogen, as there are simply too many variables.

    Some of these variables include the absence of accurate information, which may be by deliberate intention, or simply incompetence.  The availability to advanced medical care, or the absence of it.  Population demographics.  Social conditions.  Civic conditions.  Education about the pathogen.  Vaccine availability. (What good is having a viable vaccine, which cannot be produced in the quantities required for effective inoculation?)   Cost of effective treatment.  ...and many other issues.

    So, while a specific death rate alludes us, we may yet determine a meaningful range to this factor, which allows for the known variables.  SARS-CoV-2, manifesting as COVID-19, will have a death rate much higher than the common flu, even if the infected are provided with unlimited medical attention, which is HOW the FLU is given a Death Rate of .1%.

    How would the FLU death rate change, if NO medical aid is applied?  Naturally, this .1% rate would increase.  But, with NO medical aid...EVERY dangerous injury, illness, and infection, would also result in more fatalities.

    Does one count only those who died while obtaining state-of-the-art medical support, and which were properly confirmed as dying from the results of the specified pathogen?  Do we count the fatalities caused by secondary infections and illnesses, of the infected?  What if a person dies from the effects of the common flu, but was also infected at the time with SARS-CoV-2?  Do we count those suffering fatal heart attacks brought on by fairly mild symptoms of the virus, which they might have survived otherwise?

    What would be the range in the Death Rate factor we can confidently apply to COVID-19?   A Death Rate falling between 1-4%?  3-6%?

    In any case, COVID-19 is MANY TIMES more deadly than the common flu, by ANY comparison.   But, knowing the actual death rate will not allow you to avoid being killed by this pathogen, unless it motivates you to properly attempt to guard yourself from getting it in the first place.

    What is the Death Rate for those welded into their homes in China?  100%?

     

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 6:50am

    TLWA1879

    TLWA1879

    Status: Member

    Joined: Oct 11 2017

    Posts: 18

    This isn't the place for it...

    We'd waste a lot of time of we started debating religion and politics here on PP.  There's plenty of other sites for that.  Energy, Economy, and Environment are the topics here.

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 6:55am

    BillL

    BillL

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 15 2020

    Posts: 115

    Spot on Granny!!!!!!!!!!!!

    I always have to drizzle a bit of sarcasm on my comments, perhaps I should stop that.

    We have 2 more than full time businesses and still spend many hours growing our own food.  I also supplement from my "local farmers" far more than I should but they bust their asses and I love them to death.  4 of them total.  Meat, eggs, starts, veges, etc.

    It feels so good that I can't even describe it.  Was at one last night and they were doing work that was way outside their scope.  They under took the task and were doing it well.  THAT is what I am all about.

    As you well know, my point was "Their going to HAVE TO."

    Be well and blessings to you.

     

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 7:03am

    Roelandkuijper

    Roelandkuijper

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 03 2020

    Posts: 3

    Roelandkuijper said:

    Let’s say 80000 known cases in China ranging from mild to severe symptoms..           —>100%

    80000=100%

    800=1%

    lets say 3000 deaths

    3000=3,75%

    3,75 would be the death rate in this case.. from all and only confirmed cases. And trusting to have received the right numbers..

     

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 7:06am

    #84
    Rooni

    Rooni

    Status: Member

    Joined: Oct 13 2019

    Posts: 16

    Self Isolation

    Hi Members,

    I'm new here as a subscribed member, and this is my first post.

    I live in Orlando, and today is my first day of self-isolation. It's only 10 am and already it's hard. I keep looking out my windows at the outside world!

    If anyone else is in self-isolation I would love to hear from you and what your experience has been or is like so far.

    Thanks, and I look forward to being part of this dynamic community.

    Cynthia

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 7:06am

    Vilbas

    Vilbas

    Status: Member

    Joined: Aug 14 2014

    Posts: 32

    Vilbas said:

    The only thing wrong was it was inaccurate. Hate on Pelosi all you want but do it for things that are factually correct, not bad-faith political posturing.

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 7:09am

    Copper’s Hu-mom

    Copper’s Hu-mom

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 01 2020

    Posts: 38

    Opening the doors in Wuhan

    I can't imagine those doors ever being opened again. Wait long enough, then burn or raze the whole building..more likely? What a horrible situation. Unthinkable.

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 7:09am

    Mary59

    Mary59

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 09 2020

    Posts: 33

    Monolaurin

    Hello

    I have orderd this also.  A healthfood store owner suggested this.

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 7:16am

    Quercus bicolor

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Mar 19 2008

    Posts: 332

    Death rate - to eary to know for sure

    Please don't forget that when death rate is computed as # of deaths as of now / number of cases as of now, we are excluding those who are infected and will die, but have not done so yet.  When cases are growing exponentially early in the epidemic and death typically occurs 10-20 days after diagnosis, this will lead to a significant underestimate of the death rate.  This is because a large number of the total cases will have been diagnosed within the last 10-20 days.   One better, but non-full proof way is to compute # of deaths as of today / # of cases N days ago where N is the average number of days from diagnosis to death for those who die.

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 7:17am

    #89
    Chrisboersma

    Chrisboersma

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 25 2020

    Posts: 12

    China - Crime to Disclose or Talk about NCOV

    China has effectively made it a crime (and potentially a risky option for any related family member) to talk about having the virus (it's unclear right now what is happening to people the government counts as having COVID-19).  I don't see any notice of China asking people to come forward.

    It would be nearly impossible to determine how many people are infected as a result.  You're likely safer at home (even if nearly dead)...  I assume that China wants to keep their hospitals free of this disease if possible.

    China didn't even go through great lengths to disprove the "burned alive" stories, which I hope and assume are not true (but are bound to terrify the Chinese)

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 7:19am

    #90
    Matties

    Matties

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 160

    Italians didn't do well with the Spanish flu

    According to one popular history, Pale Rider: The Spanish Flu of 1918 and How It Changed the Worldby Laura Spinney, there were very noticeable—and noticed—ethnic differences in mortality. “In fact, residents of Connecticut who were of Italian origin were more likely to die than those of Irish, English, Canadian, German, Russian, Austrian or Polish background,” writes Spinney.

     

    According to historian Alfred Crosby, all immigrants were more likely to die of Spanish Flu (presumably due to immigrant poverty) but the mortality rate was far lower among English, Irish and German immigrants (that is: evolved to a cold, wet climate) than among those from Poland, Russia and Austria-Hungary. Among Italian immigrants, however, Spanish Flu was particularly acute. Crosby writes: The pandemic scythed through urban America’s Little Italies, and Italian-Americans had one of the very highest mortality rates in the entire country [America's Forgotten Pandemic: The Influenza of 1918, by Alfred Crosby, 2003, pp.227-228].

     

    A 1921 investigation into Spanish Flu, in The American Journal of Hygiene, reported ethnic differences in mortality from the virus, commenting that, in comparison to other immigrants, the death rate was “enormously high among Italians” but “lower than would be expected among persons of Irish, English and German stock,” presumably based on the mortality rate that poverty would predict [Influenza: An Epidemiologic Studyby Warren Taylor Vaughan, American Journal of Hygiene, 1921].

     

    Another academic article, published in 1919, noted that Irish Americans seemed to be 75% less likely to suffer from acute influenza than Italian-Americans [Society Proceedings, Journal of the American Medical Association, 1919, p. 1548].

     

    In Italy itself things didn't go better : Our analysis suggests that 2·64 million excess deaths occurred in Europe during the period when Spanish flu was circulating. The method provided space variation of the excess mortality: the highest and lowest cumulative excess/predicted mortality ratios were observed in Italy (+172%) and Finland (+33%). Excess‐death curves showed high synchrony in 1918–1919 with peak mortality occurring in all countries during a 2‐month window (Oct–Nov 1918).

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4634693/

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 7:23am

    MarkM

    MarkM

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 22 2008

    Posts: 392

    ER wait times @mikescaggs

    Good point. Thanks for the link.

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 7:24am

    Torii

    Torii

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 03 2020

    Posts: 25

    Nebulizer

    Cj Sloane,

    In Adam’s recent discussion with James Wesley Rawles, Rawles posited that a nebulizer and/or oxygen concentrator “could be the difference between life and death” for someone in the grip of respiratory distress. It’s basically a directional steam mask that can also infuse medication (colloidal silver, perhaps). I’ve never used a nebulizer, so I am eager to test it out if it ever arrives. I also ordered styling blue booties and a back-up Sawyer water filter after reading the interview transcript. Three is two, two is one, one is none.

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 7:35am

    britmi

    britmi

    Status: Member

    Joined: May 06 2012

    Posts: 13

    Desogames

    Glad to here you are feeling better.   Interesting info on virolence between China and Italy.

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 7:40am

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 1018

    Self Isolation

    Welcome Cynthia et al,

    Isolation shouldn’t necessarily mean staying at home.  You could go for a walk, the library, museum etc.  Just wear a mask and gloves.  Getting outside and exercising improves health.  Make a list of all those activities you would fo if only you had time.

    What would you do if you had to quarantine at home for a few weeks?

     

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 7:43am

    kunga

    kunga

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 26 2017

    Posts: 302

    Self isolation/ Rooni

    If you are in a small apartment, lock down may be claustrophobic.  Do you have a balcony or sheltered, private area, outside where you can get some sun?  If you stay away, like twenty feet, from others, or go out for a walk at night, with few people out,  you may be able to go outside for a bit.  Be sensible.  One thing, you are going to learn a lot about yourself.  Most people can't stand to be alone with themselves.  Be flexible.

    I am lucky, on acreage with locked gates.  I plan to isolate but have been stocking materials for several summer projects.  Good luck./

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 7:45am

    Blueberry

    Blueberry

    Status: Member

    Joined: Aug 07 2013

    Posts: 7

    Nebulizer solutions.

    I do not have any medical background but will just put some info out here in case someone else has something to add or is inclined to research it further.  My son uses a nebulizer for asthma.. Ventolin ( prescription) added to the nebulizer helps the tight airways to open up a bit and drain the congestion when he has a respiratory infection. Does it therefore help with Cov-19? No idea. Pulmicort, a steroid is added to the solution and that decreases inflammation.  Does that help with Cov-19?  Don't know but I did read something saying it lengthened the illness in some other virus (maybe it was SARS or another coronavirus..not sure) due to the steroid suppressing the immune system.    I have also read about people using 3% saline in their nebuliser with no other medications in it. I use .9% saline for dilution and have never tried 3%.

     

     

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 7:52am

    Ision

    Ision

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 07 2020

    Posts: 104

    Just not how it is done...

    It is always a mistake to divide deaths by known cases to fathom an actual death rate.  You see, TIME is a critical factor.   ANY continuous count of either the number of infected, or deaths, because of the progression of the disease over time, is not applicable to calculating a death rate for any pathogen.

    80,000 infected.  Some were infected in December, some were infected just last week.  Some are still asymptomatic, some are still sick at home, some are sick in the hospital, some are in intensive care, some have been "cured, and some have died.

    In order to discover the actual death rate, one must first establish a SLICE OF TIME to study within the infected case load, trying to establish a patient base of those originally exposed to the pathogen at about the same time.

    Once a timed sample is established, one follows the disease progressions to their terminus, and note how many patients died, were cured,  or were killed by secondary illness, infections, and other pathogens.  Then, one could calculate the death rate for the pathogen to THAT specific location, or group.

    We will NEVER come to know the actual death rate for this pathogen, we will only be able to roughly estimate it.   The Pandemic of 1918 killed between 50 and 150 million people, out of a total infected population of a totally unknown number.  What is it's death rate?

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 8:08am

    #98

    saxplayer00o1

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3132

    Summer temperatures not enough to kill coronavirus: Taiwan Health Minister

    Summer temperatures not enough to kill coronavirus: Taiwan Health Minister
    When asked about whether summer can help stop the spread of the virus, Chen said that there is no guarantee and that the government "can only hope but not count on the theory." He added that most viruses are able to survive environments under 50 degrees Celsius, so summer temperatures are not enough to kill the coronavirus, according to the Liberty Times.

    Besides Chen, many Taiwanese experts have also raised concerns over the warm summer solution, pointing out that there is no way to be certain whether the coronavirus will retreat during the summer months. In a Facebook post Tuesday (March 3), WeatherRisk Explore Inc. President Peng Chi-ming (彭啟明) warned that the new disease should not be tackled with traditional methods and that the public should be ready for a long-term epidemic battle, reported Storm Media.

    https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3885090

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 8:33am

    Eannao

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 28 2015

    Posts: 186

    Re. Monolaurin

    Hi Sharon,

    I did a quick search but couldn't find any studies on the antiviral effects of Monolaurin. Could you direct me to anything?

    Thanks, E.

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 8:35am

    nordicjack

    nordicjack

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 405

    US and how it should have been done - not how pence and trump tell you it was done

    Pence and Trump keep saying there was some major quarantine and massive travel ban that took place. The only quarantine that took effect was for repatriated workers from wuhan. The travel ban was only applicable to people coming from china that were not citizens or greencard holders.. Citizens and greencard holders could come and go to china all day long - and they did. They could get on a plane in china fly to the US and walk through customs without as much as a contact number - it there is a video of guy showing this. Meanwhile in my wife's home country ( former USSR country ) everyone coming in from another country simply goes to the quarantine hospital. yes an actual hospital for isolation - used only for travelers for this purpose not shared with anyone else. That is the way its done. and wonder why most of the former USSR countries besides a few that are now EU.. have zero out-break.. I do not think they will be outbreak free - forever. But they will buy themselves time. The US will be a Shit show.. and the GOVT and officials here well knew it.. It is part of the plan to either have the 1% fleece the remaining wealth. or to eliminate the largest burden of disabled, sick , medicare , ssa eligibles. ( the idea is to collect taxes but pay no benefits )

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 8:46am

    Steve

    Steve

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jun 27 2009

    Posts: 127

    Why wear masks? Per Ford Brewer MD, it's the most important thing.

    Per Ford Brewer MD MPH, "And so why am I focusing on that?  This is a disease that focuses on the lungs.  So, therefore, it's aerosol droplets. And, again, so therefore a mask should be the most important thing... Even for aerosol type of transmission, the major transmission for these things tends to occur when stuff gets aerosoled or it gets on peoples hands and you touch surfaces.  So, again, focus on that point."

    FYI, he does also discuss the importance of hand washing with soap and water for 20 seconds and self-isolation, among other things.

    The above quote comes from 15:10 in the following video.

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 8:50am

    bbtruth

    bbtruth

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 05 2020

    Posts: 32

    Big farms...

    I am in agreement on both big farms and the need for people to be able to do things for themselves.  Specialization is for insects.
    I have gone to self isolating at least to the degree of minimizing trips to town and social interaction.  I will be growing a massive garden this year(1 acre for one person= massive to me).  I have been working on a orchard for the last 1.5 years or so and will unfortunately be putting much of that on hold as I anticipate the garden will keep me working sun up to sundown.  Putting up a gate on the driveway as soon as the ground thaws.  I am blessed with a nice sized chunk of land, good soil, rolling hills for my orchard, woods and a mostly private lake.  I have resources, I plan to use them, and plan to work very hard.  This all works within my long term plan to build a business from what I have so only a bit of a tweak in the plans for this year with the caveat that since I will be out of the workforce for the interim, so on a budget but well provisioned and get to spend extra time and effort on the farmstead.    Doing seed starts this week, got some more trees to clear and stumps to pull while I wait for ground to thaw and warm up.  Hopefully getting a greenhouse put together soon and maybe a high tunnel in the near future.  Lots of work to be done.  Good luck in your efforts sir.

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 8:53am

    VTGothic

    VTGothic

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 05 2020

    Posts: 82

    Thumbs UP

    Yep, Sparky1, I've had the same experience. Doesn't work for me, but I see some on threads.

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 8:57am

    nordicjack

    nordicjack

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 405

    Re just not how its done

    Yes you cannot divide cases by deaths. It misses the lag time of course of death. For instance dr li died on Feb6 and first became ill on Jan 10. He was recorded as a death on feb 6 but divided against cases found by feb 6.. he was actually a death from cases counted by Jan 10th.

    However, do not fear. We have the closed slice you speak about. Its called the disaster princess. Its a finite amount of population .. it has not completely played out - its death rate is now at about 1% and can only go higher not lower. And I believe the people on this ship will receive care beyond ordinary due to the press and importance given to these publicly famous people. So, this is a random sample of population its not some sick infirm nursing home - though some people may disagree and say a lot of elderly cruise.. yes a lot way healthier than I am . I am only 54 and i have been unhealthy due to genetic illness since 26. And for years drs said i had nothing but depression about 30 years to get diagnosed.. so, if the medical establishment can see you are not unwell and call it depression. I cant be that sick? but I can tell you I would never be able to go on a cruise or travel. So to me they are not infirm. And even with my condition, as it does not really effect immunity and its not heart disease, no one has said that i am susceptible to complications due to infections. In fact , I have no issues with infections ever. And have only taken antibiotics for preventative measures of dental work. Anyway. my point is simple. I think the disaster princes is a fair sample of "GENERAL" population. We have a 1% CFR now. and many critical serious and we have very few resolved. and a couple more cases added recently.. This will play out and this will be a better picture - but I caution one thing. I think the CFR will be lower than real -because these people are celebrity status, and will get superior care the masses will not.

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 8:57am

    Mark Cochrane

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: May 24 2011

    Posts: 874

    Numbers

    All of the numbers we have to work with in calculating case fatality rates or ultimate death rates for this virus are skewed in various ways.

    1. As if mentioned often, there are an unknown number of mild/asymptomatic cases that would tend to pull down the case fatality rate. That said, the sampling on the cruise ship from hell and in South Korea (sect members) are as close to full population sampling as we can get. The cruise ship had a population skewed to the older side than the general population so mortality should be overstated but recovery or eventual infection seem to take an eternity to resolve...

    2. China has the largest sample set for calculation which is good....except that trust in those numbers is exceedingly low.

    3. Italy has an increasing sample that is more trustworthy but they have changed their reporting methods to not count asymptomatic cases (as I recall).

    4. The US and many other nations have had the don't test don't tell policy. The spike in deaths in the US does not lend confidence to this strategy. Cases are massively understated making the death rates overstated (we hope)

    5. Singapore and Hong Kong (maybe Taiwan) seem to be state of the art for detection, containment and treatment. Perhaps the best case scenario if such facilities are available.

    5. South Korea seems to be doing a great job of sampling but they don't seem to be working at updating the serious/critical reporting and it seems they either don't report or are very conservative about calling anyone recovered. If you just used resolved cases (76) in South Korea the case fatality rate would be 35/76 = 46%! Nowhere has anything that catastrophic appeared so obviously we aren't getting the full story.

    The point is that all the numbers are 'squishy' and prone to revision at some date in the future. The one thing that is clear is that deaths and hospitalizations are too danged high for any government or population to feel comfortable with. Comparing to the Swine Flu, there are already >3x as many cases for this point in the outbreak (day 53 - see here under more graphs) and 22x as many deaths. These are still the early days.

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 9:05am

    nordicjack

    nordicjack

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 405

    bbtruth

    I am all for self-sufficiency. I think in the future we will go there after the 4th turning and apocalypse. ( its coming ) I wish I had land like this. But its gotten so expensive for even garbage land. But you can see how states and counties are stopping people from living off the grid.. even saying they cannot capture the water on their land - and cannot generate their own power. people are being arrested for self-sufficiency in some parts of the country. its really disgusting.. US is shithole.. and hope it will die soon.

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 9:09am

    bbtruth

    bbtruth

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 05 2020

    Posts: 32

    CFR is less than 3.4 percent?

    That may well be a correct assumption, but I also don't believe the cfr to be a static number.  My overriding concern almost from the start has been the knock-on effects of the virus.  Not that the virus shouldn't be taken very seriously, of course it should, but I believe the consequences and subsequent reactions will be the real calamity.

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 9:15am

    nordicjack

    nordicjack

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 405

    regarding china CFR and missing data and missing cases diagnosis

    I know a lot of american officials stating that the death rate is low like the flu - because in china the numbers are much higher because they would not count mild non serious cases.. only cases seeking help. That is not true. The chinese went door-to-door checking temps - temps every where - people are paid to turn in sick neighbors etc. I am sure some were missed. But I do believe the death rate is at least 2-3% with lags We still have half the people unresolved. ( that is a problem ) and we are now learning resolved cases can become active again.. another problem.

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 9:18am

    bbtruth

    bbtruth

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 05 2020

    Posts: 32

    Death by moral relativism.

    Although there are a good number of good and decent people here, one must concede that we are being overwhelmed by people with no moral code.
    I've already had my run ins with the government, whose only job is to protect my rights, and lost.  Had 13 acres forcibly stolen from me.  A few years back now, got my property tax statement, noticed that my listed acreage had gone down by 13 acres.  Called around to get answers, talked with estate lawyer, did my own research and long story short, it will cost me thousands of dollars to buy back my own land that was taken from me with no notice, no compensation, no imminent domain(which I vehemently disagree with), and no one could tell me how it happened.  I am currently pursuing outside help or alternative solutions.  I would like to see people held accountable and justice done.  Without property rights, we have no rights.

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 9:43am

    bbtruth

    bbtruth

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 05 2020

    Posts: 32

    Free market vs. centralized control or statism perhaps on a global level

    I'm all for 100% real capitalism and free markets....now, if only we could find it somewhere.  In a question of individual rights being subservient to perceived collective need, well, the road to hell is paved with good intentions.  Unfortunately, good intentions don't mean shit.  The laws of nature don't allow for it.  Actions have consequences.

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 9:44am

    tytonegro

    tytonegro

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 03 2020

    Posts: 2

    Sources? FAKE NEWS???

    In these video I very often miss the references and sources. For example, the news about the Red Cross Hospital in Beverwijk (Netherlands) is nowhere to be found. The same about the info about the RIVM . What are the sources for this? Or do we have some good examples of fake news here?

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 9:48am

    Dutch Boomer

    Dutch Boomer

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2020

    Posts: 95

    yep, it's true

    as Dutch member I can confirm both stories

    If you want to find/read the official statements you need to use dutch language

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 9:50am

    Dutch Boomer

    Dutch Boomer

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2020

    Posts: 95

    Links

    https://www.noordhollandsdagblad.nl/cnt/dmf20200303_30473609/opnamestop-op-intensive-care-rode-kruis-ziekenhuis-beverwijk-vanwege-besmetting-coronavirus?utm_source=google&utm_medium=organic

     

    https://www.rivm.nl/coronavirus/covid-19

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 9:56am

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 1018

    I Can Relate

    bbtruth

    There are two classes of people that the law does not apply to.  The Rich and the Lawbreakers/Criminals who are often very successful.  We taxpaying honest folk are penalized.

    I dealt with the State and reminded them a copious amount of times that less than 1% of land in Alaska is privately owned.  But there are no State agencies whose job is to help and protect landowners. (Not that we ever really own the land anyway or anything for that matter)  Now if only I had deep pockets and a team of lawyers I could wreak some havoc!

    One can dream.

     

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 9:58am

    Dutch Boomer

    Dutch Boomer

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2020

    Posts: 95

    Dutch CDC (RIVM)

    better example of a moronic government:

    A teacher from a school came back from Italy. His wife and 2 kids got a fever and fell sick. The RIVM said they didnot meet the requirments for testing. He informed the school management, they saw no problem. After 1 week of teaching he is now in quirantaine

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 10:06am

    km64

    km64

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 88

    Eminent Domain Attorneys

    quick search... https://www.ownerscounsel.com/what-we-do/

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 10:12am

    chrissie.sugden

    chrissie.sugden

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 26 2015

    Posts: 11

    Thumbs up

    My hits aren't registering either.

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 10:15am

    bbtruth

    bbtruth

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 05 2020

    Posts: 32

    Now if only I had deep pockets and a team of lawyers I could wreak some havoc!

    They count on you not being able to marshal those resources in order to fight them.  There is a video somewhere floating around of a well to do property owner in Texas that stood up to the powers that be in court and they were astounded to find out that someone they assumed powerless to fight them, did so.  They were recorded as saying as much.  They openly admitted that they do it knowing most people can't afford to do anything about it.

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 10:26am

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 660

    Coronavirus hits NY family of 3, neighbor; $8.3B emergency funds deal

    Coronavirus hits New York family as U.S. cases rise; lawmakers reach funds deal

    "Three family members and a neighbor of a New York man infected with the new coronavirus have also tested positive, officials said on Wednesday, and the number of cases increased across the United States. "

    "New York’s Yeshiva University said one of its students had tested positive for COVID-19, and it was canceling all classes on Wednesday at one of its four New York City campuses as a “precautionary step.”'

    "On Tuesday, officials said a man in his 50s who lives in a New York City suburb and works at a Manhattan law firm tested positive for the virus, the second identified case in the state."

    "The four new cases include three family members of the man, who is hospitalized, New York Mayor Bill De Blasio said in a statement. Health authorities said one of his children was a student at Yeshiva. The fourth was a neighbor of the infected family, bringing the total of confirmed cases in New York state to six."

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa/coronavirus-hits-new-york-family-as-u-s-cases-rise-lawmakers-reach-funds-deal-idUSKBN20R28H

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 10:36am

    kunga

    kunga

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 26 2017

    Posts: 302

    AK Granny

    Whew, thank you for clearing that up, that you live in Alaska, AK.  I thought the AK stood for AK-47.

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 10:38am

    Jim H

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jun 08 2009

    Posts: 1105

    Eannao Re; Monolaurin

    I searched as well and found this - seems like it's worth adding to the arsenal of anti-virals given it's wide availability and ultra safe use profile.  Just buy the solid coconut oil and eat some!

    https://www.icp.org.ph/2020/01/the-potential-of-coconut-oil-and-its-derivatives-as-effective-and-safe-antiviral-agents-against-the-novel-coronavirus-ncov-2019/

    Conclusion

    Several in vitro, animal, and human studies support the potential of coconut oil, lauric acid and its derivatives as effective and safe agents against a virus like nCoV-2019. Mechanistic studies on other viruses show that at least three mechanisms may be operating.

    Given the considerable scientific evidence for the antiviral activity of coconut oil, lauric acid and its derivatives and their general safety, and the absence of a cure for nCoV-2019, we urge that clinical studies be conducted among patients who have been infected with nCoV-2019 (see below). This treatment is affordable and virtually risk-free, and the potential benefits are enormous.

    On the other hand, given the safety and broad availability of virgin coconut oil (VCO), we recommend that VCO be considered as a general prophylactic against viral and microbial infection.

     

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 10:59am

    kunga

    kunga

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 26 2017

    Posts: 302

    Seattle/Kirkland

    News stories I've read quote family members of the nursing home victims.  Most often stated is they are worried about the old folks, but not themselves, because, "I'm healthy."

    I just got off the phone with my Seattle shoemaker.  Sent a couple of pairs up there to be orthopedically modified.  I questioned the woman I spoke with about local health concerns.  She seemed a bit worried but had made no preparations or bought gloves, etc.  My impression was, the virus is only in old people on the other side of the lake.  She said, "It seems kind of bad."  The President has said he may isolate hot areas.  Seattle would not be hard to isolate.  Blow a couple bridges, station nat. guard and police.  Seattle loses trucking supply in a bad snow storm.  I gave her some helpful info. and PP site.  The populace is way too complacent.

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 11:17am

    wheresdavid

    wheresdavid

    Status: Member

    Joined: Sep 14 2008

    Posts: 18

    The narrative should change from, wash your hands, to wash your hands and disinfect your cell phone / Ipad

    Almost everyone has a cell phone and I imagine they typically "touch" their phones several times (even 100's of times) throughout a day.

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 11:26am

    NorthElkhound

    NorthElkhound

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2020

    Posts: 35

    isolation

    You can download lots of books from Amazon or your local library. You can walk outside if you stay away from others. Use gloves for all door knobs, of course. I have a Scrabble board and Monopoly--one person can play as two people. I also do lots of jigsaw puzzles. The Internet has lots of brain games to try. I keep in touch with people of like mind and interests. Join a new club online.

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 11:26am

    thc0655

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Apr 27 2010

    Posts: 1938

    The Founders would’ve been shooting by now

    And for 50 good reasons (the “long train of abuses”).

    ”We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.--That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, --That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.”

    ”Happy Hunger Games! And may the odds be ever in your favor.”

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 11:43am

    Torii

    Torii

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 03 2020

    Posts: 25

    First Case in NC

    A man who visited the Seattle-area nursing home linked to seven coronavirus deaths flew home to Raleigh on February 22 and just yesterday tested “presumptively positive” for the virus. That’s a 10-day gap. He is self-isolating at home. The Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill CSA population is ~2 million and is highly mobile.

    Authorities were quick to reassure an unsuspecting populace:

    An RDU Airport press release stated that the man was asymptomatic on the flight, so, per the NC health department and the CDC, he did not pose a risk to other passengers at the time. An explanation of the extremely low risk of infection in airline cabins followed. Comforting.

    Coronavirus (COVID-19)

    https://www.ncdhhs.gov/news/press-releases/north-carolina-identifies-first-case-covid-19

    Then Governor Roy Cooper said state officials are trying to find all the man’s contacts for additional screening. So is he a negligible risk or highly infectious? The Wake County public health director emphasized that asymptomatic spread was unlikely and that he is not checking the flight manifest or airport employees who may have been in contact with the man.

    https://abc11.com/5982249/

    https://abc11.com/5984946/

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 12:06pm

    kristen braun

    kristen braun

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 29 2020

    Posts: 13

    Crfuise Ship news

    I was surfing some cruise ship aggregate site ... found some interesting things on Cruise junkie:

    February 29, Emerald Princess, Arrives in port early -- four pax removed to ambulances
    CBS reports on Friday night, the Emerald Princess came into port — hours before its scheduled arrival. The Los Angeles City Fire Department said it received a call for help just before 8 p.m., deploying four ambulances to Berth 93. When paramedics arrived, two people had suffered unknown injuries on the ship and two others were suffering from unknown illnesses. Those four patients were taken to nearby hospitals without lights or sirens. The ship was scheduled to return tomorrow from a 28-day trip to Hawaii and the south Pacific and the illnesses were not related to the Coronavirus. The Port of Los Angeles police said all of the remaining passengers were being kept on the ship overnight because they cannot get off without going through customs, which will not be staffed until the morning.

     

    March 1, Carnival Ecstasy, Delayed departure
    First Coast News reports officials with the Carnival Cruise Line confirmed a delayed departure from Jacksonville Saturday is not connected to Covid-19. First Coast News received multiple calls regarding a Carnival Cruise ship that was supposMed to depart Jacksonville at 4:30 p.m. but still remained at the port as of 5:30 p.m. Viewers reported seeing fire trucks, ambulances, a hazmat team and one person taken from the ship via ambulance. Some worried it may be connected to the coronavirus. Shortly before 6:30 p.m., a Carnival spokesperson said that is not the case and that the issue was the result of miscommunication. The spokesperson said the cruise line was trying to get a crew member to a shoreside hospital "for rather routine medical observation and this was not a suspected Covid-19 case." The spokesperson said the crew member had not visited any regions affected by the Covid-19 spread in the past two weeks.

     

    March 1, Sun Princess, Met by protestors at Reunion Island (health concerns)
    Daily Mail reports the ship was greeted by protesters who threw stones and screamed at the crew as they tried to dock in Reunion Island because they thought the ship was infected with coronavirus. Police were forced to use tear gas to end the ugly clash after 30 locals from the French Republic, east of Madagascar, gathered as the Sun Princess docked on March 1. Protesters were concerned people on board could be carrying coronavirus after the ship docked in Thailand in early Februar

     

    March 4, Grand Princess, COVID-19 outbreak/quarantine?
    The following is posted at the Princess website: Last night / early this morning, our chief medical officer Dr. Grant Tarling issued this Health Advisory Letter to guests and crew currently sailing onboard Grand Princess. A similar notification has been emailed to guests who sailed on the previous voyage. Guests Health Advisory – Coronavirus: I wish to advise you that today we have been notified by the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) that they are investigating a small cluster of COVID-19 (coronavirus) cases in Northern California connected to our previous voyage that sailed roundtrip San Francisco from February 11 to February 21. We are working closely with our CDC partners and are following their recommendations. For those guests who sailed with us on our previous voyage, in an abundance of caution the CDC requires you to remain in your stateroom until you have been contacted and cleared by our medical staff. A member of our medical team will be calling you between the hours of 8:00 AM and 11:00 AM this morning. You may order room service while you wait for the medical screening to be completed, and we apologize for any inconvenience. Also see here.

     

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 12:14pm

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 660

    1st Covid death in California; 10th in Washington

    Speaking of cruise ships....

    California officials announce 1st death in state

    "Washington state has reported a 10th death from the new coronavirus and California announced its first."

    "Health officials in Northern California say the elderly man who had other health conditions died Wednesday at a hospital in Roseville where he was in isolation.
    The man was likely exposed to the virus while he travel in February on a Princess cruise ship from San Francisco to Mexico, officials said in a statement."

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/the-latest-california-officials-announce-1st-death-in-state/ar-BB10IPpC?ocid=spartandhp

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 12:18pm

    Thrivalista

    Thrivalista

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Apr 05 2011

    Posts: 56

    Flirting with the boundaries?

    “OFF-LIMIT TOPICS
    Regretfully, through much trial and even more error, we’ve determined that there are several topics that seem to escape the ability of otherwise careful and considerate people to discuss pleasantly in an online forum:
         Religion
         Abortion
         Politics (from a partisan standpoint or otherwise seen as pushing an agenda)
    These topics are not allowed, and any threads or posts containing them will be promptly removed. We wish it could be otherwise, but our hard-earned experience is that these topics are not worth the trouble. We appreciate your understanding.”  

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 12:32pm

    MarkM

    MarkM

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 22 2008

    Posts: 392

    Asymptomatic spread

    Government official states asymptomatic spread unlikely.

    I thought the potential for that had been well established.

    My mind becomes more boggled each day.

    Our government appears to be behind the curve every step of the way.

     

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 12:33pm

    SagerXX

    Status: Gold Member

    Joined: Feb 11 2009

    Posts: 444

    My grandparents were farmers, my uncle and cousin still are (Eastern Iowa)

    ...and I may be about to become a farmer myself.

    Had a meetup with the inner circle of the family of the woman I have recently begun dating.  They have been resident in my area for 50 years, and own a few patches of land that are well-suited to cultivation of food crops (and here on Maui, we have a 12-month growing season).  They are all up to date on COVID-19 and making final preps to go self-quarantine and begin intensive cultivation of their own food forest-type thing.  They have neighbors higher up the mountain (Maui is basically a giant mountain out in the middle of the Pacific) who have cattle, pigs and deer (and therefore beef, pork and venison), and neighbors downhill who fish.  They intend to facilitate trade in both directions, just as the ancient Hawaiians did (do a search on "ahupua'a").  The point of the meetup was for the fam to take stock of where they were in their preps and to pass out final to-do lists to everybody in the family (other than the young and very pregnant woman who's marrying the son of my lady friend later this month).

    Funny how life goes:  just recently this woman and I decided to go from casual dating to a committed relationship.  Then along comes this virus.  I am meeting the family again tonight so they can take my measure and see if they'd enjoy having me -- and my ex, and our 3-year-old son -- join the team.  It helps that I've been prepping for this sort of scenario for over a decade now. It also doesn't hurt that my son's mother is an RN.

    So yeah, funny:  after going to a fancy college and traveling the world and working for some elite firms in NYC, I eventually move to the most remote place in the world and might just end up farming for a living.  My grandparents (RIP) are laughing their butts off.  I must admit to wearing a wry grin as I type this.

    And, just a thought:  my sweetheart's son is getting married in 2 weeks, and his fiancee will bear their child in May.  This whole pandemic thing may seem grim but never lose sight of the fact that life does go on.  In between the prepping and the vigilance, PLEASE my friends, take time to enjoy the little things, and take care of yourself.  It's all a dance, and in the long run we're all perished.  Remember to enjoy the journey, ESPECIALLY in grim times.

    VIVA -- Sager

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 12:33pm

    nordicjack

    nordicjack

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 405

    Very angry with the US and you should be too

    It is obvious that the US is the embarrassment of the world with the handling of the virus we have CFR around 15%. And meanwhile media and journalists and drs said oh this cant happen to the US we have medicine , no one will die of this here. that is poor medical care in other countries.. not the US we are the best.

    However, what sickens me - and i know how bad medicine in here and i predicted this and got into a pissing match with a journalist a month or so ago about this.. but what sickens me most is - the level of standard of care.. Even if you didnt know it was the wufle, and you couldnt test for it.. If a guy comes to er and presents with severe ARDS or pneumonia , you would think you would still admit him and care for him. But what has obviously happened is these people were not even cared for their presenting conditions. This is demostrated by the quick time from diagnosis to death as in the recent cases of deaths including NC.. by the time you diagnose him he is dead. So, what chance of care did these people have. I thought we would have had to have an overwhelmed system before we saw needless deaths that could be saved. But now we have needless deaths while having an underwhelmed medical systm.. We can have a 20% death rate here.. with this level of treatment.. the drs complain in the handling by the US govt and the CDC.. they are just as incompetent.. need to clean house of all of them... they are dont deserve a paycheck..

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 12:47pm

    Jim H

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jun 08 2009

    Posts: 1105

    Anger is not going to help us now...

    We have to help ourselves - our advantage is better information.  Along those lines, here is the latest Medcram video by a Pulmonologist.  The conclusion is everyone should be taking a small, ie. 20 - 50 microgram Vit D supplement.  This Dr. also supports the conjecture that the seasonal variation may have more to do with lack of sun/Vit D deficiency vs. the idea that the virus is killed in the summer heat.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gmqgGwT6bw0

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 1:07pm

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 1018

    Nordicjack

    I like to keep things simple.

    We will know that our politicians are honorable and have integrity when they have the same medical care we do.

    Instead of free for life.

    And anger can be a catalyst for change. But with legal pot and Netflix, why change.
    We have a ways to go yet.  But then if you can’t pay the cable bill people will get cranky.😳 Will be an interesting decade.

     

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 1:11pm

    JRDel

    JRDel

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 04 2020

    Posts: 1

    JRDel said:

     

     

    Although I have been keenly interested in emergency preparedness for some time, this is the first time I have seriously paid attention to pandemics.

    I appreciate the thoroughness of the Peak Prosperity coverage of the situataion worldwide and especially so early in the beginnings of the Huwan Coronavirus pandemic.

    It seems to me, though very interesting, to be a difficult thing to get a handle on the actual number of infections, the R0 numbers and mortality rates as a function of infections. Things like the cases being tested, the efficacy of the testing, diagnositc criteria, etc. all seem to vary. The question in my mind is as to whether the economic impacts will be greater than the impact of the disease itself if we overreact. So the question is whether the overall mortality rate will be greater than say the number of deaths from influenza every year.

    For me it seems more instructive to look at mortality rates in countries where the reporting is more honest than in China and try to model where things are headed. Though, being naive and inexperienced on this topic, I have, never the less, made a crude attempt to use a simplistic model of the mortality rates in Italy to track their progress against this simple model's projection. The Model based on Cummulative Deaths = e^(.4*number of days) Note: .4 corresponds to a doubling every ~2.45 days and is just a crude eyeball best fit of the data that was available on 3/1/2020.

    Date 2/20  2/21 2/22 2/23 2/24 2/25 2/26 2/27 2/28  2/29    3/1     3/2       3/3

    Actual 0        1        2       3         7        10    12     17      21        29      34      52          79

    Model  1       1.4    2.0     2.9    4.1     5.8    8.2   11.6    16.4   23.3   33.1   47.0      66.7

    Date 3/4      3/5     3/6     3/7     3/8    3/9    3/10    3/11    3/12    3/13    3/14  3/15   3/16

    Actual ?

    Model 94.6   134.3    190.6   270.4    383.8   544.6    772.8    1,096.6   1,556.2   2,208.3 3,133.8    4,447.1    6,310.7

    Date 3/17    3/18     3/19    3/20    3/21    3/22    3/23   3/24

    Actual ?

    Model 8,955.3   12,708.2   18,033.7   25,591.1   36,315.5   51,534.2    73,130.4   103,777.0

    This simple model would put the death toll in Italy at over 100,000 by 3/24 due to the Huwan Coronavirus and over a million by by the end of this month. This would only be possible if the entire population became infected and the mortality due to the virus was approximately 1,667 deaths per 100,000 infections ( 1 Million deaths/60 Million People in Italy)*1000.

    Hopefully with warmer weather, a better awareness and understanding of the virus, containment, more self isolation, less lethal mutations, etc. this will not be the case. So far, though, going on 14 days into the model the actual data seems to fit. I plan to do similar exercises (using excel spreadsheets and charts) for other countries if time allows. Pray for the Australians as there will be no mitigating warmer weather for them for well over 6 months. Obviously we need to be vigilant here in the US as well as we are probably only a week or two behind Italy.

    Actual data source John Hopkins:

    https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_19-covid-Deaths.csv

     

     

     

     

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 1:13pm

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 660

    I was the Loner in PPE whle voting at senior facility yesterday

    I had planned to vote by mail in the California primary but missed the deadline, so had to go in person. Previously, our polling place was in a large neighborhood church, staffed by many volunteers with many polling booths available. This year my polling place was changed to a nearby senior living facility.  The polling area was beyond the main large dining are, tucked down a hall, in a small room two doors to the right. There were only four volunteers (2 elderly), two tables on which to complete the ballots, and one voting booth. There were probably a dozen people crammed in the room.  Thankfully, no one was coughing or sneezing while I was there.

    I was the only person in the first floor of the facility wearing an N95 mask and gloves. I received a lot of strange looks but no one ventured to ask why I was wearing them. (I should have worn goggles, but I couldn't bring myself to wear them--risky, I know.) The PPE was hot and uncomfortable even for the relatively short period of time I wore them.

    I encountered about 20 elderly (most very frail), a few obvious visitors and staff while in the facility. There was a hand sanitizer dispenser available at the main entrance and a plate of cookies for visitors. Even though I used my hand sanitizer before and after putting on/taking off my gloves and mask in the car, I used theirs upon entering and exiting the building. Although tempted, I didn't take any cookies. Managing the PPE throughout this pandemic is going to be difficult and uncomfortable.  The stares, not so much.

    I was surprised and concerned that there was no apparent attempt to protect the residents, staff and volunteers from coronavirus or flu spread. This is on the same day as the number of Covid deaths increased to 9 from the Washington state assisted living facility.  I can see how this virus is going to tear through communal facilities of elderly and medically compromised individuals. Staff, visitors and emergency personnel will also be at risk of becoming exposed and infected. I don't see how this can be contained given what I saw yesterday. When someone is symptomatic, it is already too late.

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 1:20pm

    IT_Fred

    IT_Fred

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 04 2020

    Posts: 3

    RE: Summer temperatures not enough to kill coronavirus: Taiwan Health Minister

    With the rise in cases in Malaysia and India my hope that the warmth of summer will slow the virus is becoming less and less.  Both countries have seen a substantial increase in cases the last 24-48 hours.

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 1:21pm

    OreganoEO

    OreganoEO

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 28 2020

    Posts: 4

    OreganoEO said:

    That's the type of "expert" they have at the WHO

     

     

    Virus Death Rate Still Uncertain as Mild Cases Are Missed 

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 1:29pm

    britmi

    britmi

    Status: Member

    Joined: May 06 2012

    Posts: 13

    Shanghai Government Officially Recommends Vitamin C for COVID-19

    Don't know if this has been posted yet.

    http://www.orthomolecular.org/resources/omns/v16n16.shtml

     

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 1:59pm

    nordicjack

    nordicjack

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 405

    regarding Aerosol and asymptomatic spread

    Some authorities are either disregarding this spread or stating its not driving the spread. In itself , I would probably agree that most people , MOST, people are not getting this fro aerosol. However, asymptomatic spread is probably very minimal in comparison to symptomatic - However, when you account that asymptomatic time with the illness and time after resolving that you can spread this - if its 10% as infective but you spend 10 times as long in the phase, its an issue.. So ,though i agree with some of what the authorities are saying, in total its a factor in the spread.. and if you are around people not coughing.. you believe you are safe. which puts your defenses down..

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 2:13pm

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 775

    If You Are A Business Owner or Management

    The Food and Grocer Industry put out a very well written summary of the challenges their businesses are going to face in this, with some common sense recommendations for what to do.

    https://www.fmi.org/docs/default-source/food-safety/pandemic-planning-final-2-28-20_pdf.pdf?sfvrsn=fd60124a_2

    Good for the employee too, to see how a business should be reacting and know when your company isn't.

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 2:21pm

    VickieT

    VickieT

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 04 2020

    Posts: 2

    Mutation Of Virus

    Will this effect testing/treatment ?

    https://fortune.com/2020/03/04/coronavirus-mutating-second-strain-covid-19-wuhan-china/

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 2:24pm

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 660

    Mutated COVID-19 is 1,000 Times More Potent

    Note:  I've only skimmed this article and haven't yet read the study on which it is based.  The article is from a preparedness author and newsletter I'm subscribe to which is pretty good overall.

    Mutated COVID-19 is 1,000 Times More Potent

    "Researchers say there are now two types of the same coronavirus infecting people and 70% of those infected have caught the more aggressive form which is 1,000 times more potent that the original stain."

    https://readynutrition.com/resources/breaking-mutated-covid-19-is-1000-times-more-potent_04032020/

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 2:28pm

    catherder

    catherder

    Status: Member

    Joined: Nov 17 2010

    Posts: 18

    Major medical center at northeast medical school - MD says "no news" re virus from administration yet

    My 85 y.o. husband saw his geriatrician for routine appt today. This MD told him that the facility (huge hospital w multiple clinics and attached medical school) has not issued any advisories as far as he knows (he is a full time and an asst prof at the med school). Pretty alarming. Will try to avoid this and other hospitals at all costs!

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 2:30pm

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 660

    Mutated coronavirus

    VickieT, I didn't see your post on the mutated strains of coronavirus until after I had posted a similar article based on the same study. Ha! You beat me by about 3 minutes. 🙂

    Great minds, and all that--right?

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 2:37pm

    Grayman

    Grayman

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 11 2020

    Posts: 27

    Re: JRDel mortality graph

    Good work. It will be interesting to see how it com pares with actual figures.

     

    FWIW, I used the actual figures as of yesterday for the four smallest countries in Europe (Andorra, Lichtenstein, Monaco and San Marino) to estimate the number of infections in Europe. I chose them because in very small countries, everything gets noticed and deaths and symptomatic cases are likely to be seen and reported accurately. Based on those figures of 13 confirmed cases for the four countries who have a total population of only 186,000, I extrapolated that to estimate that there are over 50,000 actual cases in wider Europe right now.

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 2:40pm

    VickieT

    VickieT

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 04 2020

    Posts: 2

    Mutation of Virus

    Fortune skimmed the top, where the article you posted gives more information.

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 2:42pm

    waxwings

    waxwings

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 21 2020

    Posts: 2

    Mike Ryan did not quite make sense

    Yes, the WHO seems to be basing much of their guidance on the fact that China appears to have slowed the pace of spread down...which you can't do with the flu. But then Mike went on to say that no attempt has ever been made to slow down the spread of flu because we have vaccines for it and maybe something about knowing what it does. The entire group seems to think in black and white terms, or at least thinks the general population does so they have to speak that way. It is crazy to me that they don't want to use the word 'pandemic' because then countries will cease attempts at containment. No, we can pat our heads and rub our bellies at the same time. Countries can work at both containment and maintenance simultaneously. Maybe in some countries they must choose one or the other, but for many countries a combination would make the most sense for a period of time.

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 2:51pm

    Desogames

    Desogames

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 210

    About self isolation

    Since i'm basically going through that since last sunday; i'll share my experience. Regardless of whether people believe i have covid or not; i'm still locked in my house with *some* kind of serious illness, so the experience is still valid.

    I have a balcony, on which i smoke. I only smoke outside so the inside of my house stays pristine. Getting some fresh air is important, as well as keeping up bad habits such as smoking as long as you can. Reduce it, sure, i went to half the amount i usually smoke, but trust me. You will need to spread out the hurt (and i was keeping track, smoking more/less changed nothing about the frequency, timing or severity of my symptoms). I've been preparing myself mentally and morally for nearly a month and when i actually got the disease it still cracked me like an egg. But i'd still only step outside near my house where i can be sure i won't infect anybody, for my own morale's sake. I really dont wanna infect anybody because i was bored. That's also why i've kept smoking on the balcony because it was 5c outside and my neighbours wont go outside till it's warm again.

    The hard part is mood swings, confusion, dizzyness. Sometimes you simply cannot think. You won't have (full) control of your mind while thinking you're fine at times. But; as opposed to black outs with alcohol, to you the timeline seems continuous. Last Friday when i came back from the overnight doctors, i thought i had run a red light and ended up on the other side of the road (with my bicycle).

    I did, but only 2 days later did i remember - the traffic situation there had changed a while ago (Wilhelmina park Tilburg) and not only did i run a red light without noticing until i was past, i had been already riding on the wrong side of the road for several hundred meters! And i ride that road every week/2 weeks to visit my mother so i know it very well.

    It's not that i didn't have those memories for the last 2 days - But for 2 whole days, that whole situation "made sense" to me. In my minds eye, i had done nothing wrong. Having come to my senses now, i notice there's alot of "black spots" in my visually based memory... Moments where time and space itself seem to warp together rather then continue in a smooth line.

    If that happens... you just have to let it go. Try to just stay put and ride it out. It's only a problem if you move. But for morale it's really bad because you realize there just is no control over this. Then sometimes your lungs burn and there's just only getting through that as well. Add chest muscle pains on top of the burning lungs And shortness of breath and it can feel really really bad at times.

    The best advice i can give is to follow your mind until you get stressed; then do something silly and different. I'm a gamer at heart so if i wanna game i game. (and honestly i suggest you start; there is a giant world out there with something for everybody :D). Getting through this is priority 1 so everything and everybody else can just fuck off for the time being. I really believe those people you see drop in the streets or when they go to sit down is because they're doing something they shouldn't (being active when they should rest and resting when they should be active) and are forcing their bodies to do something other then fight the infection.

    But that also opens the door to despair. Because you will still feel bad; even while doing what you love, cause that's disease. That's why it's important when you reach that point to just do something else. When you feel bad it's important to just sit tight, hang on, focus on fighting it and recover your spirits in the moments it aint so bad. Trust me you start appreciating life again real fucking quick. But afterwards, in the easier moments, just keep doing what you love best as you can and keep remembering why you love it in the first place (and again if it's some outdoor activity there's probably a game for that).

    One thing that's important to have amongst your foodstock is sweets! Candy and such. Because you're basically on rations the moment you're locked inside (sure, deliveries still work... for now) so your meal variety will be veeeeeeery boring. And alot of people like to eat. Now sure i eat alot of sugar and carbs anyway (fuel for the fight) But sometimes you just hit a low. That's when you pop a candy like it's drugs, cause it is.

    Drugs are dangerous, sure, until there's a legitimate use. Keep in mind that a hot cup of tea, coffee, or literally just biting on a spoon full of sugar (to make the medicine go down) *will* give you an instant happyness boost. Take it from somebody who was suicidal for 25 years. Sometimes it's all the difference in the world.

    Everything else is just stopping boredom. Honestly; aside from the rampage i went on while trying to relay data, i have enjoyed myself tremendously with the memes of 2020. Truely; it's the dankest year in a decade already. And we're only in MARCH!. Luckily the mood swings included euphoria as well; hitting that while watching comedy was... not entirely unpleasant. And hey, my nose has never been clearer! It's been cold, wet, damp weather outside for weeks, i go inside/outside/inside from 19c to 3c to 19c (water freezes at 0C) and i've only had to blow my nose twice; yesterday and today. If you stay within the mild case parameters i'd even recommend this over having the cold or the flu! I hate a stuffy nose. Gotta take the little things where you can get em.

    But otherwise just keeping up with the virus news is a cure for boredom in itself, especially now that things are moving so fast (and you're no longer of the crowd that thinks it'll be fine, not when yer in isolation). It has helped me fight the disease as well, as i know a lot about it now.

    It has also helped me protect people, as long before i developed the diarrhea symptom, i taped off my vents (because i live in an apartment building with a bum ventilation system and i can hear the plastic being sucked in and out so many times a day). Did that the moment i learned it was probably aerosolized, and i only learned that cause i kept up with the news. That's saved the people above/below me their lives, or at least a lot of trouble, even if they'll never know. Because the doctors here sure as shit don't know this yet and are not taking any precautions based on that! I've already saved more lives then the inevitable deaths they've already caused.

    Knowing stuff like that helps keep you going. Knowing it can be beat, knowing you did the right thing, even if nobody else believes so. Knowing you are prepared for the worst, and trusting you can figure your way out of even worse.

    This virus is no mystery. Sure, we don't know all the effects. I found new symptoms myself after a few days: Chills, overly sweaty palms, mood swings. And that might just be because of a mutation specific to me, even that i don't know. But what i do know is we have been dealing with viruses for a long long time, and even if we don't remember, our bodies do. If you're willing to listen to yourself, then there's no mystery.

    And really the only thing that was dangerous about it was when my heart weakened. My fingertips started tingling, which moved into my fingers, jumped into my palm then shot up my lower arm and no matter how fast i was breathing i wasn't getting any oxygen. That was very scary too. Luckily i don't panic and i immediately started hyperventilating - if i can't get enough oxygen, i'll just suck in more! Of course the paramedics all claimed it was the other way around, fuck em. I'd like to see them survive the same situation. Having to put in the effort of expanding my lungs and then contracting them rapidly (and honestly just sheer aggression towards careless "professionals") is what kept my heart going until it subsided.

    Since then i've gone with a "dance routine" therapy - whenever my fingertips start tingling again (on Both hands, otherwise this damn virus is trying to gaslight me into moving when i should be resting, because my left hand starts tingling all the time but my right only starts when i'm having an *actual* heart slowdown) i start up some russian hardbass (or any other dance music with a relatively fast and consistant beat will do) and just bounce to the music for an hour. Torso+arms minimum, legs optional (dizzyness can hit at the same time you see) After 45 minutes the tingling recedes to the tops of my fingers and after 55 minutes it's on the tips only. That's happened 9 times, so it's no coincidence. There's been 2 times where the feeling reached as far as my palms (so bad times ahead); but dancing (far) more aggressively made it recede back into my fingers. My body is *screaming* at me that if that feeling hits my chest, i'm dead meat. So forgive me for stopping the science experiment right there :D.

    And before anybody says it's in your head: i have a blood ox pulse meter that i can put on my finger - as many will know them. I had it on my left hand and it *could not* find a reading for well over a minute. The little meter that shows your live heartbeat was going up and down a bit - it was detecting something - but the pulse was too weak to give a readout on the machine. On my right hand index finger which has a stronger pulse it could only find a PI% of 0.6 after half a minute (while just sitting here typing this feeling normal it gives me a reading of 7,6% in 8 seconds). PI% means perfusion index; measures how strong the pulse at that location as i understand it.

    It really is about keeping your heart going. Exert when you have to. Rest when you need to. I've had at least 3 times where i have had a good nights sleep for 8 hours, was up for 7, suddenly became Very sleepy, immediately went to bed, slept another 8 hours. I've got 4 sleeping disorders, each of them focused on keeping me awake, with a 5th insomnia probably caused by the disease too, so there is no way in *hell* i can sleep for 8 hours after having been awake for only 7. Just last September i had 4 days back to back consisting of 30,32,36 and 32 hours. My internal clock lost nearly a week of time because the days where so long.

    Everything else hurts and is very annoying... but can't get ya. Keep that in mind and your morale will last longer.

    Once the tingling and fatigue as i described above start happening; you progressed to a Severe case and you should seek help IMMEDIATELY. I did so as well; but nobody helped me because i wasn't nice about them assuming i was having an autistic panic attack and i should calm down when the fast breathing/adrenaline was all that was keeping me alive. Not joking about any part of that. You could very well be on your own even when society still functions. Preparing for those situations now (as we prepare for the worst and hope for the best) will keep your morale up as your confidence is kept up, while actually keeping you alive as well.

    But i *truly* believe, having gone through all of this now (i'm starting to get normal readings again of 60 bpm when sitting still; as opposed to an elevated 75-90 at rest for the last 1 1/2 weeks, something i should've also noticed sooner instead of only today when my BPM dropped down to 60 out of nowhere and i felt better (also haven't felt any attacks come on since)) that if you can >prevent yourself from going critical< this disease *could have* a CFR of less then 1%.

    Everything i've experienced tells me this is a veeeeery slow burning virus. Makes sense as a bioweapon; the longer it remains undetected the better the spread. But *that* is also it's weakness. If you find it early and treat it early by supporting your body's natural functions, the only ones who are really at risk are people with (hidden) underlying conditions; as well as those with freak mutations that makes them just drop dead on the spot. Luckily, from as far as we know, that's so fast you won't ever have to worry about it. As far as deaths go i'll take it over cancer.

    3 ibuprofen, 4 paracetamol, 1 multivitamin and a extra 250g+ vitamin C is basically my daily regimen, still. I'm gonna keep that up for another week for sure too. I've already had multiple times where i thought i was on the mend, only to have another heart attack start minutes later. When i started taking this (2 ibuprofen when getting up, 1 8 hours later to keep up a high dose) i felt markedly better in a day - though it didn't stop any of the attacks so the drugs alone *definitely* aren't enough.

    But above all. Keep a fighting spirit. You know what i've done on a regular basis? Cough up some of the mucus in my lungs, but instead of spitting, swallowing it so it'd go into my stomach acid and saying out loud "Have fun burning you little bastards!". I know the virus couldn't possibly understand that or be aware. But it sure makes me feel better!

    This is a war against an alien race that not only has mastered intergalactic spaceflight but also the technology to shrink the space between atoms - causing them to be smaller then even bacteria. They think they can get me by invading my very cells?! I'm not locked in here with them! THEY ARE LOCKED IN HERE WITH ME!!!!

    Again. Silly, i know. But as i said. When morale drops; just do something out of the ordinary that puts everything back in perspective. I'd put a laugh and a smile in my tool box next to my pulse ox and blood pressure meters any day.

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 3:02pm

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 660

    Italy: Coronavirus "tsunami" overwhelms hospitals, personnel shortages

    Coronavirus in Italy fills hospital beds and turns doctors into patients

    "One infectious-disease doctor said coronavirus had hit "like a tsunami" at his hospital, where more than 100 out of 120 people admitted with the virus have also developed pneumonia. "

    "Another hospital nearby is facing staff shortages as doctors have become patients.
    Doctors, virologists and health-care officials on the front line of Italy’s battle against coronavirus, in more than a dozen interviews, described a health-care system stretched to its limits — a situation other countries may face as the virus spreads. "

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/coronavirus-in-italy-fills-hospital-beds-and-turns-doctors-into-patients/ar-BB10HIRn?ocid=spartanntp

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 3:14pm

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 660

    South Korea pioneers free and fast drive-through coronavirus testing

    Free and available to all (residents or nonresidents) coronavirus testing for up to 384 people/test per day, per site. Safer for all concerned, less risk of exposure and infection to health care workers and others. Process:  Drive-up and stay in the car, complete a questionnaire, doctor and nurses on site take nasal and throat swab samples, test results are available in three days.

    South Korea pioneers coronavirus drive-through testing station

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/02/asia/coronavirus-drive-through-south-korea-hnk-intl/index.html

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 3:15pm

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 775

    Its Not How Many Die, Its How Many People End Up In ICU

    We and others out in the MSM have been arguing about whether the CFR is 1 or 2, or now 3.4 as the CDC says but that's not the important number. What is going to be critical is how many people end up in an ICU.

    You can have millions with mild symptoms, but if as Chris has pointed out, your hospitals get swamped, then your death rate climbs because fewer and fewer people get treatment. That's why IMO using the Death Princess' numbers are flawed. Everyone who got ill, got first class medical treatment from the start. Not 5 days after you need it because you have no insurance and can't pay the hospital bill.

    Its one thing to have Grandmother get ill, go to the hospital for care and die there, its a whole different thing if Grandmother lays in your extra bedroom, coughing up her lungs, and then dies in your bed.

    More and more home deaths, even a small fractional increase is going to freak people out. Panic buying will be the least of worries as people refuse to go to work, or let their children attend school.

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 3:30pm

    Matties

    Matties

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 160

    Re : Italy: Coronavirus "tsunami" overwhelms hospitals, personnel shortages

    "As with the cluster in Washington state, virologists believe the virus had been spreading in northern Italy for weeks before anyone realized."

     

    I think i have got it as well. That is in the Netherlands. But i keep a very high level of vitamine D and i am on a regime of vitamine C 1000 milligram time released every 3 hours. It is already getting better.

    I also take Magnesium, Brazil nuts for Selenium, multivitamin for the rest of it.

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 3:38pm

    pinecarr

    Status: Gold Member

    Joined: Apr 13 2008

    Posts: 1124

    Potential Central NY (CNY) Cases - Tests come back negative

    So apparently Andrew Cuomo had a news conference this morning, where he announced the tests for 2 people from Oneida County being tested for COVID-19 came back negative: "Cuomo Says Coronavirus Tests In Oneida County Are Negative".  I'm glad the results came back negative; I just wish I had confidence the test results were trustworthy.

    Sager, it's good to hear that you find yourself in a positive situation.  I wish you well!  I can't believe your son is already 3; that's such a great age!

    And thanks for your advice on not forgetting to live.

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 3:51pm

    karenchantal

    karenchantal

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2020

    Posts: 88

    Amen

    Amen.  Nobody seems to get 2% to 20% of the population going to the ICU is gonna suck.

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 4:02pm

    Linda Spier

    Linda Spier

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 25 2020

    Posts: 1

    Many thanks

    Thank you for your post and inspiration.  Take good care and stay well.

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 4:08pm

    Jim H

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jun 08 2009

    Posts: 1105

    1000 times more potent?

    Team PP.. I wish folks would read stuff before they just go and post it.. this website ends up being a cesspool of information if you don't.  First off, this article is poorly written, and the case being made is actually this;

    “The combined findings from the three studies indicate that because of the HIV-like mutations, its ability to bind with human cells could be as much as 1,000 times more potent than the initial SARS virus of 2003."

    It's not comparing two strains of this new virus to each other... it's comparing it to SARS.  I don't even know what, "potent" means but its not a scientific term.  Chris in his presentation yesterday took the time to show us a chart of the many mutations already in play for this virus.. and there are many, and this is expected.  The article mentioned in this thread twice adds absolutely nothing of value to the conversation.  Everyone here needs to grow their strengths as critical thinkers.. read stuff before you post it and have some idea of why it will add value to the conversation please.

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 4:27pm

    Oliveoilguy

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jun 29 2012

    Posts: 672

    Jim H ....here is another questionable article.

    This is from a Dr. with high credentials from Sloan Kettering. It is circulating on the internet as though it is undeniable, but it seems like questionable math and spun statistics.  Would like an opinion from anyone on PP cause I came away confused.

    https://www.truehealthinitiative.org/news2019/am-i-going-to-get-the-coronavirus-and-die/

    J. Ted Gerstle, MD

    Chief, Pediatric Surgery Service
    Department of Surgery
    Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 4:46pm

    Jim H

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jun 08 2009

    Posts: 1105

    Hello Oliveoil...

    The article is really not technical.. more philosophical in nature.  It is like many articles that downplay the risk by comparing it to the more common flu.  Whatever.. we know that unlike flu, this thing will almost certainly overwhelm our medical system, such that treatment won't be available to many who need serious intervention.  It is this vision that keeps me focused on learning about and implementing every means possible to keep my immune system at it's best.  Last night I was watching YouTube videos of Paul Stamets, the mycologist behind the Host Defense brand.  I am learning so much..  I had no idea the power of mushrooms like Agarikon to rid humans of viruses and cancers.  I just learned today, on these boards, that coconut oil should be added to my supplements.  Amazing.

    I will be as careful as I can to not expose myself, but I sleep well knowing that I am doing all that I can.

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 10:45pm

    gyrogearloose

    Status: Gold Member

    Joined: Sep 08 2008

    Posts: 414

    Making hoarding illegal a fools game

    My wife and I are hoarders. Prior to the virus breaking out had lots of stuff hoarded in case of an emergency, and now that time is here. We will not need to go into town for ages to compete for scarce resources.

     

    But you would have us classed as criminals and presumably have our hoard confiscated for the common good.

    This is a shortsighted philosophy. Think for a minute. Those who hoard are a buffer in the just in time system. Even people sticking up now have a beneficial side effect. Again buffering supply lines so when there is a shortage of able bodied workers to move or make more those dreadful hoarders are not putting a strain on struggling supply lines

     

    Regards hamish

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 11:04pm

    Nairobi

    Nairobi

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 05 2020

    Posts: 288

    Hoarding of critical supplies during public emergencies should be a criminal offence

    Hamish, my post was about the potential (and predictable) shortages of critical medications during a period of time when supply lines have been cut off. I doubt it is essential for you or anyone else to stock up on cases of vitamins or antibiotics nor boxloads of face masks and toilet paper when there is insufficient quantities for distribution. So if one house ends up owning a large surplus for the benefit of their personal security but many other houses end up with nothing, I don't think that kind of hoarding is socially responsible behavior.

    That behavior is all about me first and screw the rest of you.

    So absolutely, it should be illegal and I would support that kind of law.

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 11:38pm

    gyrogearloose

    Status: Gold Member

    Joined: Sep 08 2008

    Posts: 414

    Do I see a collectivist authoritarian mindset?

     

    You want government officials to decide how to divvy out the scarce supplies.

    Are you comfortable with that, confident that they won't look after their friends etc in priority over you.?

    Or that they will get t right and not end up messing up the distribution. Think Russia before the Berlin wall came down.

    Me, I trust or rely on the government as little as possible,given it's long history of mistreating the little people.

     

    Regards hamish

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 11:45pm

    gyrogearloose

    Status: Gold Member

    Joined: Sep 08 2008

    Posts: 414

    Ps

    Or maybe you would like the distribution handled by the same people who organized the disaster princess  ops I mean the diamond princess............

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  • Thu, Mar 05, 2020 - 12:21am

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 775

    One Person's Hoarding Often Is Shared

    I'd like to point out that most of us here who understand the importance of preparing for this, and other crisis are often stockpiling for those in our immediate family who don't realize how critical doing that is. Especially at tipping points like now.

    I'm at about 30-50% further stocked than I need to be for just my sister and I. I know several people who I would be ok with sharing my hoard, even if it took me down enough I was worried. By the same token there are those I would claim I had nothing if they came to my door.

    I though have run into nanny types and government do gooders who would happily take everything I had to distribute it in the name of the public good but that would probably mean their friends and their family.

    Hoarding laws meant to address people with a warehouse of masks is one thing. Going after people with the foresight to stock up to protect their family and their friends is another.

    Gyro if you reread Nairobe's post they did not advocate going after small preppers like me or you.

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  • Thu, Mar 05, 2020 - 2:57am

    Nairobi

    Nairobi

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 05 2020

    Posts: 288

    Thanks dtrammel

    Thanks dtrammel, you are correct. There is a difference between readiness and hoarding. We have a class of people in our society who view circumstances like this as a business opportunity and they will buy as much as possible knowing they can resell at substantial markups. In the process they take excess goods off the shelf that might normally be available to ordinary working people who did not plan ahead. Like our parents for example. The thing to keep in mind here is that what is happening right now with the rapid mobilization of key resources taking place around the world that the collective actions of people and governments resembles what happens during a war. So we need to take care that we only buy and store what is reasonable and fair keeping in mind others who are disadvantaged might go without altogether.

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  • Thu, Mar 05, 2020 - 12:54pm

    gyrogearloose

    Status: Gold Member

    Joined: Sep 08 2008

    Posts: 414

    Cognitive dissonance

    You want bureaupratic organizations to be in charge of feeding you etc in one breath but in the next you say

     

    "But others can shut down industry such as the case of welding gases being unavailable when containers of full cylinders are held up in ports due to corrupt customs officials."

    And

    "The problems can be traced back to importers, supply chain disruptions, shortages of the correct currencies, import restrictions, customs bottlenecks, paperwork, corruption"

    You sound like you are probably a altruistic person, however most people assume other people will behave like they would so you assume the WHO is staffed with people whom will act altruistically.

    I used to be like that but have learnt the hard way that bureaucratic organizations are effective at weeding out altruistic people.

    Have you watched " rules for rulers" ?

    Those on power will guite happily throw you under the bus as a side effect of looking after themselves.

    In Australia the huge run on toilet paper has prompted manufacturers to ramp up production now.  This is a good thing because stocks are built up as a buffer so if it gets like wuhan and the factory is closed and the just in time supply chain dries up....

    Many people agree with my sentiment that life gets pretty grim if you dont have something soft to wipe your arse with....

    Regards hamish

     

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  • Thu, Mar 05, 2020 - 6:24pm

    nordicjack

    nordicjack

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 405

    jim - Potent is a scientific word

    Even if not scientific , doesnt mean its not an applicable word. Potent usually refers to strength. something that is 1000x more potent is quantitative, its 1000x stronger. but in the context its means has 1000 x greater ability. or it is able to bind 1000:1 times greater. that is pretty quantitative. it is scientific to quantify the binding capacity / difference between to compared things. and potent probably is the root of word more often used in chemistry and physics. "potential"

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  • Fri, Mar 06, 2020 - 3:19am

    tytonegro

    tytonegro

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 03 2020

    Posts: 2

    tytonegro said:

    Thanks, when I searched for confirmation of the Beverwijk hospital story I only found a dubious celebrity news site, which did not seem a very trustworthy source...

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  • Sat, Mar 07, 2020 - 10:39am

    karenchantal

    karenchantal

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2020

    Posts: 88

    Not hoarding.....

    I don't think it is hoarding if nobody else is doing it.  It is "stocking your pantry."

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