- Ukraine's economic free fall
- The real risk of Ukraine igniting the next world war
- Why a lasting peace is unlikely
- What you should do in preparation of escalating conflict between Russia and the West
What's At Risk
Now we come to the hard part of this report, the part where we have to discuss what might happen next. My analogy for this period of history is the year(s) before WW I. Historians still cannot quite say what led up to the immense human disaster that we now call World War I, but enough failed diplomacy, bugled treaties, inept leadership, and inflexible political institutions were all grating against one another that a single assassination of a single archduke was a sufficient spark to set the whole pile ablaze.
Were those other failures not all stacked up like so much try tinder, a dozen archdukes could have been shot without anything more serious than a dozen solemn state funerals would have resulted.
Similarly, today we have a conflict in Ukraine which nobody can exactly say what the US's compelling interests are with Ukraine because nobody really knows. It's more a matter of principle, with that principle being the US gets to do what it wants, when it wants, and nobody is supposed to challenge that.
Putin said as much on Feb 7, 2015:
“There clearly is an attempt to restrain our development with different means,” he told trade union activists. “There is an attempt to perturb the existing world order… with one incontestable leader [Obama] who wants to remain as such thinking he is allowed everything while others are only allowed what he allows and only in his interests. This world order will never suit Russia.”
Clearly Russia is no pushover country and has no interest in having dangerous coups and rising ultra-nationalism on its borders go unchecked, and this is why we are in such dangerous territory. The US has not been up against a legitimate foe for such a long time, it may be like the school yard bully that fails to properly evaluate the new kids at school before picking a fight.
Russia is making its position known to the world. It has been…