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    A Survival Guide For 2019

    How to safely navigate the 'Year Of Instability'
    by Adam Taggart

    Friday, February 1, 2019, 3:24 PM

As the first month of the year concludes, it's becoming clear that 2019 will be a very different kind of year.

The near-decade of 'recovery' following the Great Financial Crisis enjoyed a stability and tranquility that suddenly evaporated at the end of 2018.

Here in 2019, instability reigns.

The world's central banks are absolutely panicking. After last year's bursting of the Everything Bubble, their coordinated plans for Quantitative Tightening have been summarily thrown out the window. Suddenly, no chairman can prove himself too dovish.

Jerome Powell, the supposed hardliner among them, completely capitulated in the wake of the recent -15% tantrum in stocks, which, as Sven Henrich colorfully quipped, proved what we suspected all along:

The global tsunami of liquidity (i.e. thin-air money printing) released by the central banking cartel has been the defining trend of the past decade. It has driven, directly or indirectly, more world events than any other factor.

And one of its more notorious legacies is the massive disparity and wealth and income resulting from its favoring of the top 0.1% over everyone else. The mega-rich have seen their assets skyrocket in value, while the masses have been mercilessly squeezed between similarly rising costs of living and stagnant wages.

How have the tone-deaf politicians responded? With tax breaks for their Establishment masters and new taxes imposed on the public. As a result, populist ire is catching fire in an accelerating number of countries, which the authorities are anxious to suppress by all means to prevent it from conflagrating further — most visibly demonstrated right now by the French government's increasingly jack-booted attempts to quash the Yellow Vest protests:

Meanwhile, two other principal drivers of the past decade's 'prosperity' are also suddenly in jeopardy.

China's once-unstoppable economic growth engine is now sputtering badly. The slowdown is so pronounced that it's now feared it will drag world GDP down to a decade low this year:

And all those headlines that claimed the US shale oil 'miracle' has ushered in a new era of over-abundant cheap domestic oil? Well, as we've long warned, it's becoming clear that promise was dangerously overhyped. It's recently been exposed that the shale operators — who have never made a profit as an industry — have been overstating their output by as much as 50%. That, plus a host of geological and financing challenges, is making the future production prospects of the Permian and other major shale basins look a lot dimmer:

Is The Permian Bull Run Coming To An End?

With the big Wall Street players now questioning the value of their existing investments in shale oil, the industry is finding it hard to raise money. Not a single bond sale has come off since November in an industry which must continuously raise capital to survive.

To add to the problems, the future of U.S. shale oil production seems to be in the Permian Basin in Texas which has been providing the lion's share of oil production growth for the entire country. But ongoing drought in an already arid West Texas has raised doubts about whether the Permian will have enough water to meet all the demand for fracking new wells.

If the needed capital is not forthcoming, it means that companies will be faced with declining revenues from declining production. With lower operating cash flow and little access to additional capital, these companies will be unable to drill enough wells to offset declining ones. That means even lower revenues in the future which will mean even lower investment in new wells. That's what a death spiral looks like.

(Source)

A Poisonous Cocktail

Mix together a slowing global economy hopelessly addicted to central bank stimulus, festering social unrest and an approaching oil price spike/supply squeeze. The result?

Recession and revolt.

It's anybody's guess what will happen from here. But it seems certain that events will not recede back to the tranquility of the past decade.

Our prediction here at PeakProsperity.com is that the long-awaited (and, yes, perhaps too-long-predicted) downturn is nigh.

Either the economy descends into recession, resulting in widespread job losses and a deflationary correction of today's ridiculously-inflated financial markets. Or the central banks go “all in” and launch QE4ever, leading to runaway inflation (runaway stagflation, more likely) and possibly hyperinflation.

Either way, the pain and losses will be severe. And those hurt the most — the working poor, the elderly unable to support themselves, the younger generations limited by diminished prospects — will have no option but to rise up against the political regimes that have failed them so badly.

A Survival Guide For 2019

With the bursting of the Everything Bubble, we declared last year as the 'Year Everything Changed'. This will be the 'Year of Instability', possibly preceding an upcoming 'Year Of Woe' in 2020.

But look, we're not saying the world is the process of ending imminently. It's just that we've entered the part of the timeline when things are going to start to get really rocky.

And we think it's much more useful to think of 2019 as the 'Year Resilience Matters'. It shifts the focus away from fear and instead towards the many things you can do to protect yourself and those you care about – and even to position yourself to prosper through the coming challenges.

Here are recent articles/resources we've created to help you get started. Focus on the areas where you currently feel the most vulnerable.

  • Lose weight/Get fit — after all, if you don't have your health, the rest doesn't matter. Resilience starts with your most important asset: your body. Our free how-to primers on successful and sustainable weight loss and functional fitness are great resources for everyone looking for guidance on how to boost their physical health.
  • Shore up your key relationships — whatever the future brings, no single person can be prepared for every possible outcome. We're going to need to rely on others, on key relationships and trusted community ties, when events play to our weaknesses. How do we nurture the kind of relationships that thrive, instead of unravel, during times of stress? Our free report breaks down the science behind successful social bonds.
  • Prepare for deflation — asset prices desperately want to deflate. The past decade of money-printing (QE 1,2 & 3) has blown prices well into bubble territory and allowed for credit to expand way beyond what fundamentals allow. With the bursting of the Everything Bubble, especially if the central banks somehow resume their committed tightening plans, *much* lower prices should lie ahead. A recession will only exacerbate this trend further. So we recommend that investors get liquid and preserve 'dry powder' to ride out the correction and be poised to re-enter the market when quality assets can be purchased at much better valuations than today. Our primers on holding cash in short-term US T-bills and in hedging for a major market correction are important resources for anyone looking to position their capital for a deflationary purge.
  • Prepare for inflation — of course, today's central banks hate deflation. They may well take a “damn the consequences” approach when serious deflation next raises its head and kick-off QE 4-ever — which would have to be on a scale much larger than the previous QE efforts to achieve it's desired effect. But at that magnitude, it is highly likely the central banks will kill the purchasing power of their underlying currencies — unleashing runaway inflation (runaway stagflation, more likely) and quite possibly hyperinflation. So, it's wise to have a portion of your portfolio in assets that will weather the ravages of inflation better than most. This is why we recommend folks consider owning precious metals (and why we endorse the Hard Assets Alliance for doing so) as well as invest for inflation-adjusted income going forward (vs speculating for capital gain).
  • Prepare for likely emergencies — one of the few things we can predict with certainty is that 2019 will have its fair share of floods, fires, hurricanes, blizzards, and blackouts. Every location has its own set of probable disasters than can be anticipated. Preparing for these is relatively straightforward and absolutely prudent. Our free guide to emergency preparedness is full of battle-tested recommendations and advice for doing it well.
  • Prepare for unlikely emergencies — another thing we can predict with confidence is that nothing this year will go 100% according to plan. There will be errors, unintended consequences, surprises, and accidents. We've written in the past of the wisdom of holding umbrella liability insurance for protection against the unexpected. More than 80% of US households either don't own any or are under-insured. If you think you may be one of them, read our free primer on the topic. 
  • Develop your master plan — as with most goals, success dramatically improves when working with an experienced coach. Those looking for help in making key decisions and/or getting custom answers to their unique personal situations can schedule a consultation with us. And those looking to have a crash-audit of their investment portfolio can schedule a free review with our endorsed financial advisor.
  • Live resiliently – they say “The best revenge is to live well”. The same is true when it comes to resilience. Creating a resilient life is the best way to overcome adversity and enjoy prosperity in your daily living. Our book Prosper!: How To Prepare For The Future And Create A World Worth Inheriting offers a blueprint for doing just this. As does our intensive 3-day seminar (this year's is nearly sold out, so register soon if interested), which also connects you into the Peak Prosperity tribe — a worldwide community of smart, accomplished truth-seekers with big hearts eager to support each other in their journey to live more resilient lives.

The goal here is not perfection; no one can be fully prepared for every eventuality. It's to be “good enough” across as many of these dimensions as possible.

By taking prudent action today in these areas, you'll be vastly more able to navigate the instabilities that 2019 throws at you.

And, just as important, you'll be well-positioned to be in service to the many less-prepared folks around you.

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40 Comments

  • Sat, Feb 02, 2019 - 5:52am

    #1

    LesPhelps

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 30 2009

    Posts: 487

    Preping For Chaos

    Believe me.  I get it.
    But, as I was reading this, the scene in the first Jurassic Park movie where Jeff Goldblum explains chaos theory came to mind.
    How do you prepare for chaos?  I’m not sure my stockpile of luck is adequate for what is coming.

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  • Sat, Feb 02, 2019 - 6:49am

    #2
    Lions

    Lions

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: May 19 2018

    Posts: 23

    An idea

    Just a suggestion. While many people cannot be reached when they do not feel anything is wrong, I think the minute that it becomes apparent that there is an explosive emergency, they will panic and want to do something. This reminds me of what Rhonda Byrne, creator of The Secret did. All of a sudden one day you could post a video on the internet with a blockbuster title about the disaster, what caused it, and what to do about it. You could then refer them to your website or whatever information you wanted to give them about what the next step is.
    I think this would be a Blockbuster film in the genre of Science Fiction. Perhaps, how the central Bankers destroyed the world.
    Thank you

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  • Sat, Feb 02, 2019 - 1:45pm

    Reply to #1

    Locksmithuk

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Dec 19 2011

    Posts: 108

    Preparing for chaos

    LesPhelps wrote:

    Believe me.  I get it.
    But, as I was reading this, the scene in the first Jurassic Park movie where Jeff Goldblum explains chaos theory came to mind.
    How do you prepare for chaos?  I’m not sure my stockpile of luck is adequate for what is coming.

     
    It’s completely understandable to presume that chaos is the vehicle which will take us from A [where we are now] to Z (where we end up]. The truth is that the probability of the onset of sudden, dramatic chaos is completely & utterly uncertain. In the past 7-8 years I’ve lost count of the number of times I just KNEW that C would happen because that’s always been the outcome when A+B happens. Wrong. Cause & effect is so much harder to determine now.
    The Descent may take the form of decades-long painful decline. I think one can be over-prepared for the short term. 

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  • Sat, Feb 02, 2019 - 2:12pm

    Reply to #1

    Snydeman

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Feb 06 2013

    Posts: 550

    LesPhelps wrote: Believe me.

    LesPhelps wrote:

    Believe me.  I get it.
    But, as I was reading this, the scene in the first Jurassic Park movie where Jeff Goldblum explains chaos theory came to mind.
    How do you prepare for chaos?  I’m not sure my stockpile of luck is adequate for what is coming.

     
    You can’t. The best you can do is plan in such a way as to increase your odds slightly. Then you do the best with what comes. However, doing nothing to prepare is most certainly less likely to lead to success, so…yeah.

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  • Sat, Feb 02, 2019 - 4:01pm

    #3
    robie robinson

    robie robinson

    Status Gold Member (Online)

    Joined: Aug 25 2009

    Posts: 891

    Impending chaos?

    Chaos is,,,neither approaching nor leaving. Live in a fashion that minimizes the undesirable outcome….and don’t change…for me, that is a depression era lifestyle. 
    I do have a scheduled hip replacement, which will be very modern, pending.

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  • Sat, Feb 02, 2019 - 9:39pm

    Reply to #3

    SagerXX

    Status Gold Member (Offline)

    Joined: Feb 11 2009

    Posts: 399

    robie robinson wrote: Live

    robie robinson wrote:

    Live in a fashion that minimizes the undesirable outcome….

    And figure out how to enjoy this oncoming wave.  It’s not personal, it’s not even business.  It’s evolution.  Get stoked.  
    VIVA — Sager

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  • Sat, Feb 02, 2019 - 10:02pm

    #4

    Mark_BC

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 30 2010

    Posts: 315

    As a conspiracy theorist (or

    As a conspiracy theorist (or to be more correct, someone with a scientific approach who formulates beliefs based on evidence), I think the other factor to consider is that the central banks will go out with a bang. The problem for the bankers that a deflationary asset crash, or alternatively dramatic undeniable stagflation, create is that it squarely points the finger at their mismanagement. If 9/11 taught us anything, it’s that they will do anything to direct blame away from themselves, and that they have a fully captured and obedient media. And the Patriot Act and other similar changes in other countries have stripped us of our rights; the freedoms we currently enjoy are merely being granted to us by our masters so as to not stoke unrest and suspicion.
    I dont expect this to end with either a deflationary crash (although a deflationary crash may be part of a larger event, however) or rampant stagflation. I think they are planning for the end and they’re just waiting for the right time.
    So my advice would be to plan for a similar 9/11 type event which takes down the internet and conveniently causes the implosion of the monetary system, and some kind of martial law implemented. Likely Russion hackers working in collaboration with ISIS will be the fabricated villains. This will also provide the cover to blame hackers for the financial reset, and also to justify further military action in the middle east against Muslim countries.
    Of course, they will have “our” new monetary system ready to go shortly after this, revalued to properly price in fundamentals. Whether this goes cashless or not, I’m not sure since a world in chaos with sketchy internet will be very difficult to force into electronic-only transactions.
    I personally think they can still do quite a bit more covert QE to prop the markets up. They don’t have to tell us, and they can electronically send the money exactly where it needs to go without causing inflation. But, I’m still expecting this “end” in 2019, although I’ve been saying it will be “this year” every year since 2010…

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  • Sun, Feb 03, 2019 - 1:52am

    #5
    Ejohnson

    Ejohnson

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Oct 26 2018

    Posts: 16

    Of Noricum and Gaul

    I’ve been reading accounts written during the decline and fall of the Roman empire recently. The Life of Saint Severinus details life in Noricum (Southern Germany) in the 450-482 timeframe, while the Letters of Sidonius details Roman upper class life in Gaul (Southern France) during roughly the same period (460-480). Up front, it’s amazing that these documents survived the subsequent dark age, and are worth reading for that reason alone.
    I know historical parallels are never completely accurate, but read this description of the Roman “top 1%” from the introduction of Sidonius: “These members of the Senatorial class were possessed of enourmous wealth, but they seem to have had little encouragement to expend any part of it for the benefit of their country. They escaped the municipal taxation which they could well afford; their chief use for surplus money was to lend it out at 12%…Thus they had come to possess nearly the whole superficial area of a country which they did not even suppose to defend. If they wished to commit illegal acts, they could often set themselves above the law…” History usually rhymes vice repeating, but our era looks almost like plagarism. Side note: “Senatorial” was a rank granted based on wealth, not necessarily from being a Senator.
    The lesson I’m deriving from them though is that the decline and degragation of systems took most of the decades mentioned to play out. A single year of instability was often just a slightly steeper step downward. Especially in the letters of Sidonius, life doesn’t seem to “feel” much different as the Franks and Burgundians overgrow the receding empire. Sidonius visits Rome around 461, and the politics of the Empire are business as usual. Certain years are key of course. Rome ceded large portions of Gaul to the Barbarians in 475. The Empire ceased to pay the soldiers gaurding the danube around the same time. The periphery began collapsing, settlements were abandoned and destroyed. The occasional drought/famine, war, or disaster stepped lightly on the accelerator. Watching the people in these books deal with the descent is fascinating.
    I expect 2019 to play out along the lines in the article, but being armed with the knowledge of the context it takes place in (decline) is critical. Just being aware allows for prudent positioning. As G.I. Joe says, “Knowing is half the battle”.

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  • Sun, Feb 03, 2019 - 5:47am

    Reply to #1

    LesPhelps

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 30 2009

    Posts: 487

    Snydeman wrote: You can't.

    Snydeman wrote:

    You can’t. The best you can do is plan in such a way as to increase your odds slightly. Then you do the best with what comes. However, doing nothing to prepare is most certainly less likely to lead to success, so…yeah.

    I’m obviously not doing nothing.  
    However, I have no belief that prepping will allow me to safely and comfortably navigate the coming turmoil, nor can I predict, with any reasonable accuracy, the timing and exact nature of the turmoil.
    Also, it’s not just prepping that is needed.  We need to reduce our on-going contribution to the problems.

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  • Sun, Feb 03, 2019 - 9:29am

    #6
    cowtown2011

    cowtown2011

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Sep 12 2011

    Posts: 34

    Central Banks

    I believe that central banks will go back to QE and reinflate the various bubbles again. Can they pull it off again without any real problems? We will see. We may just turn Japanese; central bank buys equities directly, interest rates at zero and minimal growth. I think they (CB’s) would prefer turning Japanese over the other possible out comes. 

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  • Sun, Feb 03, 2019 - 10:35am

    #7

    charleshughsmith

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Aug 15 2010

    Posts: 699

    Imperial decline

    Thank you, Ejihnson, for the recommendations of these accounts of Imperial decline in the periphery and the core.  The parallels are very close b/c Homo Sapiens are still running Wetware 1.0.   The Senatorial class today has offshore tax havens to evade paying to defend the Empire they largely own….
    I’ve read a great many books on Rome and the eastern Roman Empire (Byzantium) over the past decade, and think “The Rise of Rome” helps us understand the systems and values that enabled Rome to expand and rule vastly diverse regions for hundreds of years with very basic technologies. The decay of these systems and values led to systemic failure.
    “The Inheritance of Rome” is more academic, but worth a read for those who want to understand how Rome’s structures continued on for hundreds of years (Charlemagne et al.) and then slowly eroded into feudalism.

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  • Sun, Feb 03, 2019 - 3:21pm

    #8

    Snydeman

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Feb 06 2013

    Posts: 550

    LesPhelps wrote: Snydeman

    LesPhelps wrote:
    Snydeman wrote:

    You can’t. The best you can do is plan in such a way as to increase your odds slightly. Then you do the best with what comes. However, doing nothing to prepare is most certainly less likely to lead to success, so…yeah.

    I’m obviously not doing nothing.  
    However, I have no belief that prepping will allow me to safely and comfortably navigate the coming turmoil, nor can I predict, with any reasonable accuracy, the timing and exact nature of the turmoil.
    Also, it’s not just prepping that is needed.  We need to reduce our on-going contribution to the problems.

     
    Agreed on all counts. For us, if prepping can raise our chances even a few digits, it’ll be worth it. 

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  • Sun, Feb 03, 2019 - 3:34pm

    #9
    robie robinson

    robie robinson

    Status Gold Member (Online)

    Joined: Aug 25 2009

    Posts: 891

    Don’t prep

    live a life in keeping with Mama. Been called a prepper for 35+ yrs.(prepper wasn’t an expression then)only to reply that my life was best exhausted in the bosom of a piece of land and the family that drew its existence from that place on earth.
    see all you all on the other side, husband,father,farmer,optometrist

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  • Sun, Feb 03, 2019 - 6:10pm

    #10

    Boomer41

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Nov 30 2008

    Posts: 115

    Not Holding My Breath

    I have been ‘prepping’ for at least ten years. Most of the food in my cache is well past its ‘best by’ date but, especially with canned goods, I believe that date is just an arbitrary number to encourage us to buy more stuff. I open a can now and then to sample the contents. So far so good. I would prefer to cycle through my stockpile by using and replacing, but my wife is still convinced I am delusional and refuses to eat canned anything.
    What has most impressed me in the last ten years is the ability of TPTB to kick the can down the road and to manipulate the stock market, the price of gold and pretty much anything they want. Although the signs all point to 2019 being a pivotal year, I am still sceptical. They kept what looked like a crisis going for ten years already, why not another ten? Ten years ago nobody would have believed they could keep it going until now.
    At my age (78 tomorrow) I’m not about to start farming, or any other major enterprise. I already have enough going on just to keep my house maintained, my boat shipshape and my car running. The banksters have already stolen most of my anticipated retirement income but, fuggem, turns out I don’t need as much as I planned for anyway.
    The main thing is to be aware and have a plan for the day when something really bad happens. Other than that, I say relax, have a good time, make the most of every day.
    At the rate its going, I reckon I will die just in time.
     

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  • Sun, Feb 03, 2019 - 9:21pm

    Reply to #2
    ezlxq1949

    ezlxq1949

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 29 2009

    Posts: 257

    Internet during Chaos?

    Lions wrote,

    You could then refer them to your website

    I do wonder how the Internet will fare during a time of chaos. We know it was designed to survive nuclear warfare, but what about drawn-out, erosive chaos? That’s a whole ‘nother animal, I think.

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  • Sun, Feb 03, 2019 - 9:36pm

    Reply to #7
    ezlxq1949

    ezlxq1949

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 29 2009

    Posts: 257

    Imperial Delirium

    CHS wrote,

    The Senatorial class today has offshore tax havens to evade paying to defend the Empire they largely own….

    It’s crazy, isn’t it? They own the place but they won’t pay to keep it in good order and condition. How do we label them: parasites? plunderers? opportunists? lunatics? destroyers? optimists?
    I’d really like to know what their motives, dreams and expectations are. Someone (Chris?) wrote recently that many of the rich people he’s met aren’t particularly clever or intelligent or gifted; they merely happen to be rich. So the 0.01% collect their loot and go and live in a luxurious bunker while the rest of Rome burns, then they come out and — what? Absolutely I do not understand what drives them.

    What’s it all about, alfie?
    Is it just for the moment we live?
    What’s it all about when you sort it out, alfie?
    Are we meant to take more than we give
    Or are we meant to be kind?
    And if only fools are kind, alfie,
    Then I guess it’s wise to be cruel.
    And if life belongs only to the strong, alfie,
    What will you lend on an old golden rule?
    As sure as I believe there’s a heaven above, alfie,
    I know there’s something much more,
    Something even non-believers can believe in.
    I believe in love, alfie.
    Without true love we just exist, alfie.
    Until you find the love you’ve missed you’re nothing, alfie.
    When you walk let your heart lead the way
    And you’ll find love any day, alfie, alfie.
    Source

     

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  • Sun, Feb 03, 2019 - 10:20pm

    Reply to #10
    Yoxa

    Yoxa

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

    Joined: Dec 20 2011

    Posts: 286

    Quote:  my age (78 tomorrow)

    Quote:

     my age (78 tomorrow)

    Happy Birthday! smiley

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  • Mon, Feb 04, 2019 - 5:39am

    #11
    junktex

    junktex

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Dec 17 2018

    Posts: 0

    Recovery?

    I guess I missed the recovery you alluded to.

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  • Mon, Feb 04, 2019 - 5:43am

    Reply to #10
    junktex

    junktex

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Dec 17 2018

    Posts: 0

    Not holding my Breathe

    I am 70.I have had similar experiences and  reached that same conclusion.Thanks

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  • Mon, Feb 04, 2019 - 11:41am

    #12
    CrLaan

    CrLaan

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Sep 05 2010

    Posts: 22

    Germany

    https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-industrial-plan-signals-europes-protectionist-lurch/
    TBTF in  Germany already heading for state-protection.

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  • Mon, Feb 04, 2019 - 12:23pm

    #13
    old guy

    old guy

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Sep 16 2018

    Posts: 0

    population decline

    Here is an article that should warm the hearts of many.
    https://www.thegwpf.com/empty-planet-the-shock-of-global-population-decl

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  • Mon, Feb 04, 2019 - 2:34pm

    #14

    Snydeman

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Feb 06 2013

    Posts: 550

    Oh good...

    They have a

     
    -Boromir

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  • Mon, Feb 04, 2019 - 4:08pm

    #15

    sand_puppy

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 13 2011

    Posts: 1971

    Measles Vaccination High in Media Cycle

    A big push for measles vaccination seems to have electrified the media and my medical friend’s social media postings.

    Health officials in Washington have declared a state of emergency and are urging immunization as they scramble to contain a measles outbreak … while the number of cases of the potentially deadly virus rises to 36.

    When I was a kid in the 50s and 60s, measles was considered a normal childhood illness and everyone was expected to get it.  About 4 million measles cases per year in the USA.  It usually did not even warrant a trip to the doctor’s office as every mother recognized the fever, red eyes, cough and splotchy rash.
    Now 36 cases is declared a state of emergency.
    Similar to supporting Trump, there is only one possible public position for moral and intelligent people:  Vaccinate everyone.  By force.
    I have been surprised that most nurses and physicians do not seem to know that review of vaccine injury database in 1998 showed that there is a small but real incidence of encephalopathy and permanent mental regression occuring about 8 and 9 days post MMR vaccination.  Even (especially?) medical people are unaware of this and incorrectly believed that all connections between MMR and autism/encephalopathy was “disproven many times over.”  They also incorrectly believed that measles vaccine is 100% safe and only idiots and degenerates would ever have misgivings about vaccination.
    Most are also unaware that deaths from measles have become exceedingly rare in the US.  Modern medical care for measles is very good with IV fluids, antibiotics for secondary pneumonias and Measles Immune Globulin.  (The CDC’s case fatality ratio numbers for measles are inconsistent and depend on how they were derived. In a personal communication with the CDC measles expert, Meryl Nass reports that there were only 3 deaths from measles in the USA in the last 15 years each of whom were immunocompromised.)   
    The most recent figures for the USA are an average of 250 measles cases per year with 0.2 deaths/year.  In the USA, this is because the measles vaccine is so effective (93% after 1 dose and 97% after 2) and the vaccination rate is so high.  Measles just doesn’t circulate in the US population.
    Another tidbit:  Who are the American’s who do not have immunity to measles?

    a.  children under 15 months too young to have been vaccinated (1%)
    b.  vaccine refusers (1.7%)
    c.  vaccine non-responders–people who have been vaccinated but didn’t mount an effective immune response (3%)
    d.  those whose immune response waned with time. (10%-15%)
    e.  unvaccinated who have a medical contra-indication to this live-virus vaccine.  (HIV, chemotherapy, transplant, immunocompromised, long list, etc.)  Percentage unknown.

    The hoopla about measles in the news seems greatly out of proportion to its threat.  What is going on?
    The reason that this topic comes up today is that it is time to thin the population of deplorables who are becoming more vocal in their displeasure about inequality.  If I were writing a novel about a small group engineering a great die off, I would use an epidemic augmented by a vaccination booster.  The epidemic to scare the people into accepting the mandatory vaccine, then the vaccination to propagate the disease –ostensibly trying to get ahead of its spread.  (But, hey, I have a good imagination.)
    Watch out for the powers of the state to inject substances into you against your will “to protect the public.”

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  • Mon, Feb 04, 2019 - 6:15pm

    #16

    jeantheau

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Feb 01 2009

    Posts: 10

    The Fed -- not mismanagement, but dys-management

    Mark_BC wrote:
    <>
    The Fed’s actions are not mismanagement, but dys-management. They know what they’re doing; it’s part of a plan designed to continue the 100 years of financial hegemony by the elites and bankers and their (owned) politicos. From our perspective, they’re “making mistakes”; from their perspective, they’re “executing a plan.”
    The big banks basically own the Fed. So, ask yourself, are the big banks worse off after the “Fed mismanagement” that culminated in the crisis of 2008? No, they’re BETTER off. Part of the plan.
    I agree that when the next crisis hits, there will be a “manufactured villain” — Russians or Iranians or ISIS or Venezulans or Martians. And it will be done in a way that they can say paper currency is now “too easily manipulated” — so we MUST go to all-digital transactions (via which TPTB can monitor EVERYTHING).
    I disagree that the internet will be taken down. It will merely be “MSM’d” — that is to say, just as the last vestiges of investigative journalism have been stripped from the mainstream media, the final assault on internet journalism will make today’s “fake news” meme look like kid gloves. The internet will still be there, but it will be exclusively for propaganda and commerce (and nonsense), as are all MSM outlets.
    In the end, we end up in a fascist techno-neofeudalist society. Everyone has a cell phone and has a job. But the jobs are low-wage and no-benefit, and upward mobility is “who you know” not “what you know.”
    As for inflation/deflation, that is a hard one to predict.  Banksters supposedly hate deflation, but deflation makes their debt notes more valuable. So, do the really hate it?  On the other side, the banksters are printing so much new money for themselves that they have to reflate enough to the rebalance the system (on the backs of us hoi-polloi working stiffs). I think it will be both deflation and inflation, AS THEY NEED THEM.
    <>
    I’ve been saying that since 2005!  But now I am more circumspect. I have come to understand that the elites/banksters are deep thinkers who are patient and play the long game. AND THEY CAN PRINT MONEY FOR THEMSELVES. Hard to compete with that.
    Mark

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  • Mon, Feb 04, 2019 - 6:16pm

    Reply to #15
    Yoxa

    Yoxa

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

    Joined: Dec 20 2011

    Posts: 286

    Measles misery

    Quote:

     The hoopla about measles in the news seems greatly out of proportion to its threat

    Of course measles used to be a normal childhood disease. Vaccines to prevent it only became available in the ’60s. The fact that measles was “normal” did NOT mean it was harmless.
    According to the CDC:
    In 1912, measles became a nationally notifiable disease in the United States, requiring U.S. healthcare providers and laboratories to report all diagnosed cases. In the first decade of reporting, an average of 6,000 measles-related deaths were reported each year**.

    Source: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/about/history.html
    ** Note that the US population was smaller in those days. Today’s numbers would be much higher if we still had the same death rate.
    —————–
    According to the World Health Organization:
    Even though a safe and cost-effective vaccine is available, in 2017, there were 110 000 measles deaths globally, mostly among children under the age of five. 
    Measles vaccination resulted in a 80% drop in measles deaths between 2000 and 2017 worldwide.
    In 2017, about 85% of the world’s children received one dose of measles vaccine by their first birthday through routine health services – up from 72% in 2000.
    During 2000-2017, measles vaccination prevented an estimated 21.1 million deaths making measles vaccine one of the best buys in public health.

    Source: https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/measles
    —————–
    According to the American Academy of Ophthalmology:
    Measles is a leading cause of childhood blindness

    Source: https://www.aao.org/eye-health/tips-prevention/six-ways-measles-can-affect-eyes-2
    ——————

    Quote:

     If I were writing a novel about a small group engineering a great die off, I would …

    Here’s a recipe: spread disinformation to downplay the dangers of “normal” childhood diseases and create widespread distrust of the public health measures that reduce their incidence. Season the mix with malnutrition and poverty, and for extra effectiveness, add a dash of civil unrest to disrupt health services. Deaths guaranteed.

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  • Mon, Feb 04, 2019 - 6:25pm

    #17
    greendoc

    greendoc

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Sep 23 2008

    Posts: 112

    I'm with Sand puppy....

    The whole vaccine thing is out of control in my researched opinion. As a ND, I get alot of continuing education on the science behind vaccines, and it is scary. We are literally lab rats for the vaccine industry being coerced into a research project with no endpoint.  
    Nanoparticle aluminum (a necessary ingredient to stimulate immune response) used as an vaccine adjuvant is a neurotoxin, and infants in the first year of life get so many doses of aluminum containing vacines that for some at risk due to genetics or environmental factors it is causing unforeseen problems. 
     I think autism is multifactorial, and know of autistic children that have never been vaccinated, but aluminum likely is driving, in part, the growing epidemic.   We are swapping one minor problem (the usual childhood diseases, that yes, did kill a very few but gave good strong sometimes lifelong immunity) for :  fading immune protection over time, lack of immune globulins passed in breastmilk to infants as the mothers now longer had the real diseases as kids themselves, an epidemic of herpes zoster because adults are no longer around kids with chicken pox to boost the adults immune titers, and growing evidence  this immune stimulation in shifting the Th1/Th2 immune balance increasing interleukin-6 (IL-6) cytokine expression and increasing incidence of auto-immune and neuro-inflammatory diseases like autism.  
     
    I am 58, and can see from the baby book my mother thoughtfully filled out for me, I got one dose oral polio, one dose smallpox and 2 DPT shots during my childhood.  4 doses total.  I actually had measles, German measles and chickenpox.  Children now get 54 doses by the time they are 18; in the first year alone they receive 17 doses! You can see the recommended CDC schedule here: https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/parents/downloads/parent-ver-sch-0-6yrs.pdf
    I just heard a wonderful evidence based lecture by the pediatrician Paul Thomas MD. He has written a great book called the Vaccine Friendly Plan. He has treated 15,000 children over a 30 year career. He started tracking cases of autism in his practice and noted how many cases of autism in fully vaccinated vs friendly plan vs unvaccinated. I know correlation is not causation, but these numbers are pretty significant.  1100 vaccine friendly plan kids: 0 cases; 894 fully vaccinated kids: 15 cases of autism.  That is 1 in 60 kids (nationwide average is 1 in 40 kids gets Autism spectrum disorder).  
    Personally, my son only had 4 doses: one of DPT (we drew titers and his immune response so good he did not need the other two shots); two for polio; and one MMR before he went to college (because it was mandatory!). If there had been a measles outbreak near me when he was young I would have taken him on a play date with some of those measly kids in hopes he got the disease and good strong lifelong immunity.  I did so with chickenpox (and I got a boost in immunity being around him!) And don’t get me started on influenza shots.  If you are not over 65 or have an underlying disease like Congestive heart failure or severe asthma or COPD, then they cause more harm (in the form of thimerosal…which is in the multi dose influenza as a preservative, and the aluminium adjuvant.) 
    AS a country we cannot afford to keep up with this grand experiment: the costs of caring for some of these severely injured kids is astronomical. The pharmacies are off the hook for the bill though as they have no liability…..another example of privatizing the profits but socializing the risk.  The vaccine compensation fund has paid out to date $4 billion.  Not to mention the considerable pain and suffering caused by these injuries to the child and their caregivers.  
    https://www.hrsa.gov/sites/default/files/hrsa/vaccine-compensation/data/monthly-stats-january-2019.pdf
    Claire
     
     

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  • Mon, Feb 04, 2019 - 6:38pm

    #18

    jeantheau

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Feb 01 2009

    Posts: 10

    of endless zeroes, wasted food storage, and vaccines

    cowtown2011 wrote:
    <>
    As financial historian Andrew Gause (recently deceased) was wont to say, “They can do it until they run out of zeroes.” I say, maybe.
    Boomer41 wrote:
    <
    >
    Oh, boy, can I relate. As I posted here, I went on a major prepping binge in 2006-2010, and part of that included large food stocks. But I was too busy waiting for the crash to properly rotate the stocks, and a lot has gone to waste.
    I’m more moderate now in my prepping, a la food storage — enough to get through a month or three, but not years. Those longer term goals may be realistic for some people, but it turns out I am just not that guy. In a crash, I’d be much better off that your average weekend grocery shopper — and I have built enough organic soil to grow a ton of food if we do get into a SHTF era — but at some point, the prepper drive in me faded and the “enjoy life” drive started to reassert itself. Along with the exhaustion! (Didn’t some famous wag coin the term “collapse fatigue”?)
    sand_puppy wrote:
    <>
    Amen, brother. Chronic fear combined with a lack of critical thinking (or self-researched information) is a worsening problem. My moment of clarity came when I realized how dumb most smart people are.
    Mark
     

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  • Mon, Feb 04, 2019 - 6:42pm

    #19
    greendoc

    greendoc

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Sep 23 2008

    Posts: 112

    updated statistics

    Quoting statistics from 1912, a time when many children suffered from Vitamin A deficiency, other forms of malnutriton and lacked basic sanitation,  makes measles seem more deadly than it was in more recent times before the vaccine.   It is true measles can be deadly in these groups, but the mortality rate steadily declined..from 26/1000 cases to 1/1000 just before the introduction of the MMR.  Any child with these above risk factors today, should be vaccinated, the benefits outwiegh the risks for sure, and the vaccine friendly plan takes this into account. It is not anti-vaccine, it is just vaccine rational.  Healthy children in a smoke free environment with basic sanitation should be able to handle a case of the measles, and in the rare case they can not, then modern medicine has great interventions to prevent death.  
     
     
    From 1956 to 1960, an average of 450 measles-related deaths were reported each year (∼1 death/ 1000 reported cases), compared with an average of 5300 measles-related deaths during 1912–1916 (26 deaths/ 1000 reported cases) [2].May 1, 2004

     

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  • Mon, Feb 04, 2019 - 9:15pm

    Reply to #19
    Yoxa

    Yoxa

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

    Joined: Dec 20 2011

    Posts: 286

    A surprising stat

    From the same article Greendoc quoted:

    Quote:

     Measles is the greatest vaccine-preventable killer of children in the world today and the eighth leading cause of death among persons of all ages worldwide[13–14]

    I knew that measles kills a lot of children but to see it named as the “eighth leading cause of death among persons of all ages worldwide” is a surprise.
    Source: https://academic.oup.com/jid/article/189/Supplement_1/S1/820569

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  • Mon, Feb 04, 2019 - 9:23pm

    #20
    Uncletommy

    Uncletommy

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: May 03 2014

    Posts: 527

    Comfortable in our kloister, isn't it?

    The bigger picture, that most of the vocal PP’ers allude to in these posts, while expository, fails to address the larger subject of survival not for just a year, but well into the future.  Sit down with your local church or NGO and learn about the comng flood.Coming to a neighborhood near you soon:


    Journalism as it should be.

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  • Mon, Feb 04, 2019 - 9:35pm

    #21
    Time2help

    Time2help

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jun 08 2011

    Posts: 2271

    Redacted

    Shifted to forum
     

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  • Tue, Feb 05, 2019 - 7:41am

    #22

    sand_puppy

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 13 2011

    Posts: 1971

    Measles Death Rates

    First I want to support and agree with several things that Yoxa posted above–that the measles vaccine HAS been highly beneficial globally.
    Second, I would like to clarify that I am not anti-vax.  Before traveling to Africa or India, I would get Yellow Fever, Rabies and a Hep B booster.  If I were not already measles immune from having the disease in childhood, I would probably get the measles vaccine myself before international travel.  But not as an infant, and not as a combined MMR or MMR-V.
    Third, to clearly acknowlege that the measles vaccine is extremely effective (~95%) and that the widespread use of the measles vaccine has transformed the public health landscape.  Globally, the measles vaccine has had profound beneficial effects on public health.
    Fourth, to ask people to be specific in whether they are talking about

    1.  global vs US figures (and don’t mix them together)
    2.  which period in history
    3.  cases versus deaths.  
    4.  reported cases and actual cases.  (Measles was rarely reported in the 50s and 60s with actual cases outnumbering reported cases by 10 to 1.  This affects the reported case-fatality ratio.)
    5.  to acknowled that even a beneficial intervention may have a cost.  

    This topic is complex.   Careful not to oversimplify (Good vs Bad).

    Some figures in the US, from an earlier time in history:   This paper (Hinman AR, 1972, Resergence of Measles in New York)  indicates the Case-Fatality Ratio for New York State over the time frame of 1910 to 1970.  In 1910, 16 deaths per 10,000 measles cases.  In 1950 – 60 time period, 6-8 deaths per 10,000 cases.   What I am trying to point out with this is that death rates change with time period.
    I have come to value the website of Meryl Nass, a physician from Maine who is absolutely smart-as-stink.  And she cares for vaccine injured patients.  She blogs fairly extensively.  She is not anti-vaccination, even though her work includes care for the vaccine injured.

    What is the death rate from measles? 
    By the time I had measles, in 1959, only one in 10,000 children died from it.  See the following graph from a 1972 paper, which demonstrates that by 1945, there were minimal fatalities from measles. 
    There is confusion about this. It is widely claimed that one in one thousand children with measles will die. Back in the 1950s and early ’60s, about 500,000 measles cases were reported yearly, and there were an average 440 deaths.  But about 4 million cases occurred yearly in the US, while most were not reported to authorities. Unlike today, there was no requirement to report cases of measles, nor did parents feel every child with measles needed to see a doctor. When only reported cases are considered, there is one death per thousand cases. But when all cases are considered, there was only 1 death in 10,000 cases of measles. However, in developing countries, where malnutrition is common and dehydration may go untreated, the death rate is considerably higher.
    In 1945, penicillin was only starting to be available, and modern ICUs and ventilators did not yet exist. Instead, simple care with adequate hydration kept people alive until they got over it. This is the usual therapeutic approach to viral illnesses. Here’s the proof that it works, from Measles death:case ratios, New York State,1910–1969, by decade. Reprinted from Hinman AR. Resurgence of measles in New York. Am J Public Health 1972;62:498-503.

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  • Tue, Feb 05, 2019 - 9:03am

    #23
    Uncletommy

    Uncletommy

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: May 03 2014

    Posts: 527

    And in regards to survivial. . .

    The new and improved “Niqab” for Canadian women:

    You can get them in black, as well!

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  • Tue, Feb 05, 2019 - 11:55am

    Reply to #15

    KugsCheese

    Status Gold Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jan 01 2010

    Posts: 844

    sand_puppy wrote: A big push

    sand_puppy wrote:

    A big push for measles vaccination seems to have electrified the media and my medical friend’s social media postings.

    Health officials in Washington have declared a state of emergency and are urging immunization as they scramble to contain a measles outbreak … while the number of cases of the potentially deadly virus rises to 36.

    When I was a kid in the 50s and 60s, measles was considered a normal childhood illness and everyone was expected to get it.  About 4 million measles cases per year in the USA.  It usually did not even warrant a trip to the doctor’s office as every mother recognized the fever, red eyes, cough and splotchy rash.
    Now 36 cases is declared a state of emergency.
    Similar to supporting Trump, there is only one possible public position for moral and intelligent people:  Vaccinate everyone.  By force.
    I have been surprised that most nurses and physicians do not seem to know that review of vaccine injury database in 1998 showed that there is a small but real incidence of encephalopathy and permanent mental regression occuring about 8 and 9 days post MMR vaccination.  Even (especially?) medical people are unaware of this and incorrectly believed that all connections between MMR and autism/encephalopathy was “disproven many times over.”  They also incorrectly believed that measles vaccine is 100% safe and only idiots and degenerates would ever have misgivings about vaccination.
    Most are also unaware that deaths from measles have become exceedingly rare in the US.  Modern medical care for measles is very good with IV fluids, antibiotics for secondary pneumonias and Measles Immune Globulin.  (The CDC’s case fatality ratio numbers for measles are inconsistent and depend on how they were derived. In a personal communication with the CDC measles expert, Meryl Nass reports that there were only 3 deaths from measles in the USA in the last 15 years each of whom were immunocompromised.)   
    The most recent figures for the USA are an average of 250 measles cases per year with 0.2 deaths/year.  In the USA, this is because the measles vaccine is so effective (93% after 1 dose and 97% after 2) and the vaccination rate is so high.  Measles just doesn’t circulate in the US population.
    Another tidbit:  Who are the American’s who do not have immunity to measles?

    a.  children under 15 months too young to have been vaccinated (1%)
    b.  vaccine refusers (1.7%)
    c.  vaccine non-responders–people who have been vaccinated but didn’t mount an effective immune response (3%)
    d.  those whose immune response waned with time. (10%-15%)
    e.  unvaccinated who have a medical contra-indication to this live-virus vaccine.  (HIV, chemotherapy, transplant, immunocompromised, long list, etc.)  Percentage unknown.

    The hoopla about measles in the news seems greatly out of proportion to its threat.  What is going on?
    The reason that this topic comes up today is that it is time to thin the population of deplorables who are becoming more vocal in their displeasure about inequality.  If I were writing a novel about a small group engineering a great die off, I would use an epidemic augmented by a vaccination booster.  The epidemic to scare the people into accepting the mandatory vaccine, then the vaccination to propagate the disease –ostensibly trying to get ahead of its spread.  (But, hey, I have a good imagination.)
    Watch out for the powers of the state to inject substances into you against your will “to protect the public.”

    My friend, a former practising and researcher doctor at the top USA medical centers and currently off-grid, swears that TPTB have injected substances via vaccines that can be activated once the switch substance is introduced via various delivery mechanisms.   I now tend to give this credence since TPTB are forcing vaccines on everyone.   A person that is vaccinated still carries the pathogen, but it is sub-clinical so the person then spreads the pathogen without knowing it.  It is far better to allow the virus to express itself, quarantine, then monitor and boost immune system if needed, but with the worker slave economy this is hard to do at home.  

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  • Tue, Feb 05, 2019 - 4:56pm

    #24

    HappyCamper

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 16 2018

    Posts: 13

    Measles

    TPTB are no longer concerned about the masses. The ability to squeeze blood out of a turnip for “their” benefit has come and gone. When the ball finally drops they will be secure in their undisclosed locations.
    When a new breakthrough was created to test vaccines for retroviruses, a test that found vaccines were contaminated with numerous viruses, the scientist was jailed, branded a quack, and stripped of her right to work and earn a living as a scientist.
    Molecular bioloist Dr. Judy A. Mikovits was thrown in jail after discovering evidence that deadly retroviruses are transmitted through vaccines given to humans.
    https://explainlife.com/scientist-jailed-after-discovering-deadly-viruse
    All the pharmaceutical industry wanted was to reject the science that vaccines can make you sick, and take ownership of the vaccine test. It was all about the money. And politicians did nothing. And the media did nothing.
    IMHO diseases that were eradicated in the U.S. are being allowed to re-enter the country to allow pharmaceutical companies to make money, and make a U.S. citizenry who no longer trust the government sick. We are a nation in decline and “they” know the U.S. citizenry blames them.
     
    Scenario:
    An aging baby boomer population is blamed for economic disparity suffered by the younger population after a popular political figure demonizes them. Hitler blamed the Jews. TPTB will blame the boomers, because “they” will not take the fall for their own failures. And everybody is ill or sick from something because affordable healthcare no longer exist.
    Our young people have been watching dystopia movies and playing dystopia video games for decades. Many may anticipate a free-for-all with spoils to the victor.

    American Survival Guide May 2015
    https://the-eye.eu/public/concen.org/Lindsey%20Williams%20Talking%20abou

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  • Tue, Feb 05, 2019 - 5:58pm

    #25

    sand_puppy

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 13 2011

    Posts: 1971

    Movie: After Armegeddon

    I had never seen this before.  Thanks HappyCamper.  Meshes well with many of the collapse novels though.  This is a pretty well done movie reinactment of a devastating flu epidemic hitting a big city, interspersed with various experts explaining the mechanics of how social structures break down in stages, until every vestige of civilization is gone.
    Kind of scary.  But good to know.
    Should something this bad actually happen, those in denial–those who are slow to catch on to the magnitude of the disruption–will be greatly hampered from coping well with the new situation.

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  • Tue, Feb 05, 2019 - 11:42pm

    Reply to #17
    TechGuy

    TechGuy

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Oct 13 2008

    Posts: 306

    Re:Vaccines

    if you look at all the failed FDA inspections and contamination reports from Vaccine pharma, its easy to see where the risks are coming from. Often Vaccines are contaminated with cleansers, metal, glass & plastics and other toxic materials. There is very little QC at vaccines companies and the FDA turns a blind eye, because the don’t want to shut them down, especially if there is a bad flu or risk of a panademic. Until regulators crack the whip, nothing is going to change.
    Every Human Vaccine Tested Was Contaminated by Unsafe Levels of Metals and Debris Linked to Cancer and Autoimmune Disease, New Study Reports “
    http://info.cmsri.org/the-driven-researcher-blog/dirty-vaccines-new-study-reveals-prevalence-of-contaminants
     
    Just google it yourself, you see an endless list of articles about contaminated vaccines.
     

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  • Tue, Feb 05, 2019 - 11:42pm

    Reply to #17
    TechGuy

    TechGuy

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Oct 13 2008

    Posts: 306

    Re:Vaccines

    if you look at all the failed FDA inspections and contamination reports from Vaccine pharma, its easy to see where the risks are coming from. Often Vaccines are contaminated with cleansers, metal, glass & plastics and other toxic materials. There is very little QC at vaccines companies and the FDA turns a blind eye, because the don’t want to shut them down, especially if there is a bad flu or risk of a panademic. Until regulators crack the whip, nothing is going to change.
    Every Human Vaccine Tested Was Contaminated by Unsafe Levels of Metals and Debris Linked to Cancer and Autoimmune Disease, New Study Reports “
    http://info.cmsri.org/the-driven-researcher-blog/dirty-vaccines-new-study-reveals-prevalence-of-contaminants
     
    Just google it yourself, you see an endless list of articles about contaminated vaccines.
     

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  • Wed, Feb 06, 2019 - 12:03am

    Reply to #4
    TechGuy

    TechGuy

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Oct 13 2008

    Posts: 306

    Shutdown of the Internet

    Mark BC wrote:
    “So my advice would be to plan for a similar 9/11 type event which takes down the internet and conveniently causes the implosion of the monetary system”
    I don’t see that happening.  Too much of the economy is now dependent on the internet. Most companies rely of cloud services to run operations. Take down the internet and delivery trucks stop moving.
    My current best guess scenerio is that a tipping point crisis, like 9/11 or Lehman won’t happen again. The Fed and other CBs will be much quicker in restarting QE to create lots of liquidity. Its possible there might be another recession this yesr (2019) but CBs will provide liquidity to prevent a deflationary crisis. I think the real crisis will begin when the CB’s are powerless to resolve theses problems: Demographics & declining energy resources, will likely see another bout of stagflation which wages fall and living costs creep up slowly squeezing people.  We also lack sufficient younger workers with the appropriate skill sets in demand: Skill workers that are willing to get their hands dirty, maintaining industrial equipment and automated systems.
    The other major threat is another global war as the US, Russia and China are locked into another cold war and arms race. Trump pulled the US out of the INF treaty this week. US is gearing up for war with Iran again, and probably has it eyes on Venezuela’s oil too. These are the last two remaing Oil prizes left. I am not sure how China & Russia will react when the USA controls all of the leading oil exporters. Since Iran has Nukes, war with Iran will be a nuclear war. US is hoping it can contain Iran’s nukes and is developing new low yeild nukes to take out Iran’s key targets which attempting collateral damage.
    No Battle Plan Survives Contact With the Enemy”
    –Helmuth von Moltke

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  • Wed, Feb 06, 2019 - 3:06am

    Reply to #4

    mememonkey

    Status Member (Online)

    Joined: Nov 01 2009

    Posts: 108

    Nuclear Posturing

    TechGuy wrote:

    The other major threat is another global war as the US, Russia and China are locked into another cold war and arms race. Trump pulled the US out of the INF treaty this week. US is gearing up for war with Iran again, and probably has it eyes on Venezuela’s oil too. These are the last two remaing Oil prizes left. I am not sure how China & Russia will react when the USA controls all of the leading oil exporters. Since Iran has Nukes, war with Iran will be a nuclear war. US is hoping it can contain Iran’s nukes and is developing new low yeild nukes to take out Iran’s key targets which attempting collateral damage.

     
    You are correct that there is a very real and rapidly increasing risk of a major kinetic war with potential escalation from the current and pending proxy war’s via a grave miscalcuation or accident  in a number of theatres. The US actions with regard to Trumps new and ‘improved’ nuclear posture particularly the ‘low yield nucs’ and the recent abrogation of the INF treaty are indeed destablizing. Not to mention the 24/7 non stop Russia/Putin villification campaign brought to us by the neo cons and neo libs courtesy of the deep security state, their mainstream media organs on the right and left and the laughably brainwashed #resistance formerly known as anti war liberals.
    However your assertion that “Iran has Nukes” is most likely incorrect and proof that the decades long propaganda campaign led by Israel and it’s 5th column Neocons is working. Indeed even the CIA  just came out and admitted that Iran is still in compliance with the enrichment limitiations of the JCPOA.
    Image result for netanyahu bomb scare graphic
    Iran does have tremendous leverage with their putative ability to shut down the worlds oil flow in the strait of Hormuz, a demonstrated and increasing ballistic missile capablity with the range to reach Tel Aviv, supersonic ship killing Sunburn missiles for a turkey shoot in the strait, probably thousands of them and a battle hardened Qud’s force and capable friends in Lebanon with lots of missiles as well.
    Perhaps Israel will finally get it’s long desired destruction of Iran from Trump, they’ve got Sheldon Adelson’s man Bolton on the Job again afterall, but it won’t be a cakewalk though. That’s why the focus to date has followed the color revolution blueprint for regime change with financial strangulation and internal domestic meddling including sponsorship of our proxy terrorists MEK.
    A full scale shooting war with Iran would be a world wide disaster and bad for everyone including Israel and it wouldn’t suprise me if the Neo Con ‘brain’ trust thought using low yield battlefield nucs in that scenario was a good thing.   It would not be.
    mm
     
     

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