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    7-Year High in Crude, 30% Hit to GDP

    Weekly Market Commentary 22 October 2021
    by davefairtex

    Sunday, October 24, 2021, 5:39 PM

This week was a reasonably good week for the metals. Here’s what the metals sector map looked like – most items are now back above the 9 and 50 MA lines. Gold/euros looks strongest – due to the MA50/MA200 crossing that happened a few months ago.

While this week copper was at the bottom of the list in terms of w/w change, over the past 52 weeks copper has risen an astonishing 42%.

I heard a comment over at King World News that, if the world is truly going to “go green”, then it will need a huge amount of copper. Hmm. Food for thought.

In the gold weekly chart below, the commercial shorts remain at a low level; that’s a reasonably positive sign. While gold is in an uptrend in the daily and weekly timeframes, gold/Euros is in an uptrend in all 3 timeframes. If we factor out currency, gold is looking positive right now.

Silver was at the top of the metals list this week – it is now back above the 50 MA, and in an uptrend in all 3 timeframes. However the commercial shorts are starting to climb, and we are approaching end of month, which is a little bit of a warning sign. The banksters don’t like to deliver silver – they sometimes smash price going into end of month.

In fact, on Friday, silver broke out fairly sharply; it was up almost almost a buck – at least until “someone” decided to pound price lower. This was true for gold as well. As a result, silver’s (daily) candle print on Friday looked a bit unpleasant. Is price preparing to reverse into end of month? My guess is: maybe yes.

The mining shares moved higher this week also – but they too had a difficult day on Friday. While the miners remain in a near-term uptrend, the Friday candle for the miners looks more bearish than the Friday candle for silver.

Crude oil moved higher this week – having risen 7 out of the last 8 weeks. This week marked a new 7-year high – last time we were above 80 was back in 2014. The price of the master resource just continues to grind higher and higher.

So what is President Grandpa’s handlers’ answer to higher oil prices? Groveling! That’s what the Grandpa-Handlers do best! (Unless of course you’re a “former hero” healthcare worker, previously infected with COVID, who doesn’t want an experimental vaccine. Then the Grandpa-Handlers are downright vicious. No jab – no job, former-hero-Plebe. We’ll bring in some foreign workers to replace you.)

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Biden-Administration-Begs-OPEC-For-More-Oil.html

It is my belief that President Grandpa’s handlers are actually just fine with high oil prices. Because – well I’d like to say “climate change”, but what I really mean is, the planned destruction of the middle class, and the transfer of wealth to the Oligarchy. That’s what they call “climate change.” Play on your phone, Plebe, and don’t leave your room. And take your bi-annual shot! Because – Climate Change! Or whatever.

So about that oil production chart. How is it doing? WCRFPUS has recovered from the hurricane, but remains roughly 1.75 mbpd below peak. Apparently, this production decline was just enough for OPEC to maximize price. We don’t hear too much about OPEC meetings these days, do we? A small decline in US shale production (about 1.5% of total global oil production) = a dramatic increase in price. Now just imagine if we had a real shortage?

Crude is indeed the master resource.

The buck moved slowly lower this week, dropping -0.185. It looks like a bearish reversal, but no near-term downtrend yet.

The 10-year yield continues to move higher – even with the Fed buying 80 billion per week. If the Fed actually starts to taper, what then? And, what about that $2 trillion in “critical new (deficit) spending”? Adding $2 trillion in debt over one year is $166 billion per month. What do we think that will do to rates?

Seems like easy math – but I suspect we will soon see either a much higher 10-year yield (Fed = taper), or a much lower dollar (Fed = prints more to mop up all the new deficit spending).

And lastly – food & oil. Food prices are almost back up to 2011 levels.

It is always amazing for me to see just how closely food & oil correlate. While food prices are just now approaching the old highs (set back in the “food riot days” of 2011), the price of crude has yet to recover completely. Now just imagine if crude makes a new high. What happens to food prices then?

And did I mention “food riots”? When food is 7% of your budget (US), a 30% increase is one thing. When food is 40% of your budget (Egypt), a 30% increase is quite another thing.

News That Caught My Eye

China Evergrande makes payment before deadline, official media says

Evergrande sent an $83.5 million interest payment to bondholders, China’s Securities Times reported without providing details. The outlet is backed by People’s Daily, the Communist Party’s official newspaper.

Weighed down by more than $300 billion of debt, the property developer has been trying to sell off parts of its vast empire in order to raise enough cash to pay off creditors. This week, one of those deals — largely seen as a last-ditch lifeline — fell through.

Source

Well.  Disaster averted – this week anyway.  I guess the CCP isn’t quite ready for things to blow up just yet.  Maybe they are waiting for an “interesting event” to occur to provide them cover for the reorganization.  If there’s a shooting war in the Pacific, nobody will notice that Evergrande isn’t making a bond payment to the Western Oligarchy.


The debt-fueled property & construction bubble that drove its growth turned into a huge explosive mess with an enormous amount of debt.

Source

Here’s the much larger context of the Evergrande default, provided by Wolf Richter.

My analysis: there will be no banking crisis in China.  The CCP has a vice-grip on their own banking system.  However, the 20-year property bubble pop will still have a massive – and unavoidable – economic impact.   My summary of Wolf’s piece below:

  • China’s residential property market: total asset value of $62 trillion…compared to $34 trillion for the US property market
  • The property sector accounts for about 28% to 30% of GDP
  • Homeownership is already over 90% for urban households in China
  • The side effect of [the] one-child policy is that the working age population began to shrink in 2012, and has continued to shrink. This means that household formation is shrinking, which means that demand for apartments to actually live in is shrinking.
  • By late 2018, 87% of home purchases were by people who already owned at least one home. They were buying to speculate in real estate
  • There are 108 million apartments under construction.
  • Total sales among China’s 100 largest property developers plunged by 36% in September from a year earlier… Sales by the 10 biggest developers, including Evergrande, collapsed by 44%.
  • There was online chatter, according to the Nikkei Asia, that property developers, such as Evergrande, are dumping apartments at half the original price.

The bubble pop is in progress.  The actual market for homes is completely maxxed out, with a huge number of apartments under construction, under conditions of declining household formation due to demographics.  Most [87%] of the recent apartment construction have been purchased (via borrowed money) for speculation and wealth-storage, not for actual use.  The apartments have a negative cost of carry: you can’t rent them out for anything close to what it costs to service your loan.

And given that property construction accounts for 30% of GDP…and the market is totally saturated, and the psychology of the “no lose buy property” trade is in the process of unwinding, that says to me that 30% of China’s GDP is about to evaporate.

Over the past 20 years, the CCP has been able to dictate overall economic growth basically by constructing apartments, and everyone in China played along with this game, funding the whole mess with debt.  Only now, the music has stopped.

Did I mention construction is 30% of GDP??!

That game is now over.  The hit to GDP will be catastrophic.

I really have no idea what the CCP will do.  Definitely they can rescue the banking system – but there’s that GDP shrinkage issue.  And each RMB spent on construction almost certainly flows through to other sectors too.  So the loss will be greater than 30% of GDP.

Certainly part of a solution might include a massive one-time shot of inflation.  Clif High suggests: China could adopt a gold standard – devaluing the RMB by 80% overnight – which would mean a gold price of roughly $10,000.  China has a lot of gold.

My analysis: by doing this, all those properties would all be worth a whole lot more, relative to the amount of debt associated with them.  This is what FDR did when faced with a similar deflationary impulse in 1933.  Holders of cash lose, as does anyone on a pension, as does anyone on a salary.  (Salaries never keep up, as we know).  But at least it would cushion the bubble pop.   But it still would not bring back the debt-funded housing market.

I know – gold revaluation is a long-time goldbug fantasy scenario.  But – China is faced with an impending 30% drop in GDP!

I think this is a really big deal.  How it plays out – I have no real idea.


And another – perhaps more locally and temporally relevant – piece from Wolf:

The Everything Shortage worms into social media and internet advertising. Facebook and Google better walk that back pronto.

…because all heck is going to break loose if it turns out that the Everything Shortage – which is a shortage of physical goods and labor – is starting to hit revenues of companies that have nothing to do with physical goods, but are making their money off the Internet by tracking consumers and showing them ads.

Source

It turns out where there’s a shortage of products, companies stop advertising – because they don’t need to advertise.  Either they don’t have products, or they fly off the shelves.

This will probably affect stock prices for these advertising companies – i.e. Our Tech Oligarchs.  And tech is a leading sector.  As tech goes, usually, so goes the market.  So maybe we get a correction.

I bought some VIX calls at end of day on Friday.  I haven’t had much luck with them, but maybe – this time is different?


CDC Director: Definition of ‘Fully Vaccinated’ May Change in the Future

Source

I mean, we all knew this was coming.  Two Weeks to Slow the Spread becomes Mandated Gene Therapy every six months – for life! – or else you can’t work.  “It’s good to be a Vaccine Stakeholder!”

Speaking of which, here’s an awesome 2-minute video that effectively captures how it started, and how it is going.  Something to share with friends.  “One tiktok video = 1000 words.”

My title for the video: “Highly Efficacious”


CBP: Border Patrol Agents Face Termination If Not Vaccinated

Source

While CBP is being force-vaccinated, the hundreds of thousands – monthly – of inbound illegal-migrant/workforce-replacement that CBP has been ordered not to arrest have no such requirement.  No irony there at all.   [Legal immigrants & visitors arriving by air?  Of course there’s a vax requirement!  And inbound citizens require a COVID test before boarding their flight!  Well – duh!  Science!!]

This could be a backdoor purge of the “white supremacists” from Federal law enforcement.   (Ironic note: Latinos comprise 50% of CBP.  But perhaps they are just “The Latino Face of White Supremacy.”  Take the shot, “whitey”!  And the required bi-annual boosters!  Because – Science!!)


More than a third of Chicago police officers defy city vaccine mandate

Source

The cop-vax requirement may be a covert version of last year’s less-than-popular overt “Defund the Police” movement, which appears designed to produce a great deal of local disorder, which then would be addressed by a Federalized police force – which will act a whole lot like the Capitol Police Force – a group that can be much more readily controlled by the central authority.

Note too that if you transfer “Federal” Police from another city, they are not integrated with the local community, and so have much less concern over the orders they follow.  “Meh.  Not my neighborhood.”  A Federalized police force would theoretically be much more willing to – say – confiscate firearms.  Especially if you filtered out the pro-firearm cranks (a.k.a. “domestic terrorists”) during the recruitment phase.

This probably also ties in with why George Soros is so eager to fund campaigns of US prosecutors who don’t punish criminals.  More disorder = greater demand for the Federalized Police Force.


Lastly – how about those postal workers?

“We are encouraged to get vaccinated, but we do not face a vaccine mandate like the military does,” he volunteered. “But,” he added helpfully, “we do have an indoor mask mandate.”

Source

Lucky postal workers.  I’m guessing they vote the right way.  Of course.  Science!!

The National School Boards Association (NSBA) has apologized to its members on Friday for a letter that was previously sent to the Biden administration in which the school board group compared parents accused of trying to intimidate educators to domestic terrorists.

Source

Looks like the attempted framing of parents who complain about school board policies as “Domestic Terrorists” didn’t go over so well.  A rare win for sanity.


Dems see a $1 trillion-plus deal within reach — but not until next week

Source

The horribly irresponsible $3.5 trillion “No Donor Left Behind” bill has been trimmed back to a still-historically-irresponsible and inflationary $1.5-$2.0 trillion monster.  This genius move is happening square in the middle of the largest wave of inflation that we’ve seen since the 1970s – which even Powell is now admitting is probably not “transitory.”

Who will help to buy the bonds?  “Not I”, said the Goose!  The CCP?  Hah!  The Fed?  Supposedly they’re going to taper.  Real soon.

Inflation is incredibly unpopular, because it is so destructive to the middle class.  The $2 trillion “Donor Thank You” bill just piles on.  But … it has been a good 50 years since the 70s, so – heck.  Maybe this time will be different.

Then again, if this were a deliberate campaign to economically devastate the middle class of the United States, dropping an extra $2 trillion in deficit spending into an already-inflated Everything Shortage economy, well then, this would be the perfect action to take.

That’s what Building Back Better is all about!

So who are President Grandpa’s handlers, again?  Asking for a friend.

Right.  So I am left with this final thought: what will the CCP do when faced with a 30% drop in GDP?

I don’t have an answer.

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17 Comments

  • Sun, Oct 24, 2021 - 7:20pm

    #1
    Aus

    Aus

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    Joined: May 26 2020

    Posts: 65

    3

    CCP- Will they go to war over Taiwan?

    CCP- potential answer, war as a distraction to the main game? Isn't it always about money/resources? Didn't the US just hand them (CCP) weapons as part of the Afghanistan exit? Where are most US troops headed now?  Is there a war over gold, minerals and food and gas emerging down under? Could they enter via Western Australia and the Northern Territory where the 100% vax mandate is in force, all the men and women of fighting age (men mostly) are maimed?  IDK.

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  • Sun, Oct 24, 2021 - 8:45pm

    #2
    davefairtex

    davefairtex

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    Joined: Sep 03 2008

    Posts: 2913

    5

    issues with US deaths 25-44 y/o

    So this is something I saw on a twitter feed.  I went down the rabbit hole, dug out the data from the CDC (thanks CDC!) and found it was accurate.  You can do this yourself.

    Below find deaths-by-age-bracket, weekly, US.  See that the blue line (old people) have a lower death count in wave #3 than in wave #2.

    But check out the black line (age 25-44).  This group has a HIGHER death count in wave #3 than in wave #2.  WTF is that about?

    "Submitted for your approval."

    Notice that the youngest group - our children and young adults - have seen almost no impact from COVID at all.  Of course this is why President Grandpa's handlers are so excited to force-vaccinate them all.  Because - Science!!

    Data is here - at least for now - get it while its still available:

    https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Weekly-Counts-of-Deaths-by-Jurisdiction-and-Age/y5bj-9g5w

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  • Sun, Oct 24, 2021 - 9:00pm

    #3
    nordicjack

    nordicjack

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    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 1647

    1

    Dave, My opinion and explanation on that chart

    I think we all know from earlier reports that delta was affecting younger people.  What would delta be more lethal to young than old?   why no change in under 25?

    I believe the answer is in the vaccine - and psychological fear of delta ( which is not found )  I think that the middle age are relatively high vaxxers ( not as high as elderly ) However, they have stronger immune response to the vaccine, there by producing greater amounts of spike, thereby ending up with more vaccine damage. Then when they become ill, they are sicker than unvaxxed or even older, seek medical treatment - and are given the kill pill and vent.

    The younger generation still has a much lower vaccination rate compared to older people due to the perceived risk.  Also, the younger generation are less likely to be in jobs that require them to vaccinate,  or financially responsible position, like head of household where they have to take vaccine and stay employed to keep their family sheltered and fed.

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  • Sun, Oct 24, 2021 - 9:45pm

    #4
    davefairtex

    davefairtex

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    Posts: 2913

    7

    another chart

    Boy the site doesn't want me to post this one.

    Here's another chart.  See that the oldsters (65-74) had a lower wave #3, while the middle-oldsters (45-64) had a higher wave #3, as did the younger folk (25-44).

    We already know there is no mortality benefit to taking the shot within the coverage period of the mfr's clinical trial.  Perhaps once the six month period is over, "no mortality benefit" ends up being "worse outcomes" for the vaccinated, at least for the 0-65 cohort.

    I can post one of these every week.  It takes about 10 seconds to run the update script.

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  • Mon, Oct 25, 2021 - 12:29am

    Quercus bicolor

    Status: Gold Member

    Joined: Mar 19 2008

    Posts: 1081

    4

    Comments on the death curve

    Note the overall covid death curve for reference:

    1. The secondary peak after wave 2 in the 45-74 groups: vaccine related deaths?  The timing is right.
    2. No group returns to baseline between waves.  This is less true of the 2 older groups between waves 2 and 3.  It is especially true of the 45-64 group between waves 2 and 3 - including the Summer of 2021 when deaths covid deaths were very low.  The 45-64 group is between 20 and 25% above baseline by my eyeballing.  The timing also suggests vaccine injuries causing deaths.  Have you downloaded this data Dave?  I'd like to get a better number.

    Once again, I point to my post #44 in the Scott Jensen thread.  Between that post and what we have here, I think we are on the cusp of finding hard data that points strongly to vaccine related deaths.

    And then we have this showing a spike in cardiovascular and neurological cases presenting at German hospitals coinciding with the rollout of dose two there.  This is not really a spike, as it has remained elevated at or near the original levels since then.

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  • Mon, Oct 25, 2021 - 4:33am

    DaveDD

    DaveDD

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    1

    Hmmm, not there yet imo

    I think the speculations of DF and QB are reasonable, but more data is needed imo. The graph shown by DF could also be in accordance with Geert Vanden Bosch's theory: the second wave of a pandemic is in general hitting the "young and strong" the hardest. Additionally, there are other hypotheses possible to explain the the graph,

    • The elderly have been wiped out by the first wave, therefore reducing the absolute number of the deaths in the last wave: this can be easily tested by normalizing the data over the # of people in the related age brackets, i.e., determine the probability of death.
    • It could also be the case that the vaxx level in the elderly cohort is large enough to benefit from the short term protection of the jabs. One way to test that one is to determine the time-shifted correlation (see Note below) betweem the vaxx status, and the previously determined probability of death. If a significant correlation can be found, this could contain a signal that indeed an increase/decrease in deaths is positively and/or negatively correlated to the vaxxines. Because of a potential Simpson paradox, we have to be careful about firm conclusions.
    • I would personally prefer to use the time-shifted mutual information between the vaxx status and these death statistics as this allows us to model non-linear relations way better than correlation.

    The last two approaches could give further underpinning of the speculations in this thread, which again, I find very likely.

     

    Note: A time-shifted metric is calculated in the following fashion: one variable is held constant, while the other variable is time shifted in increments from -N to +N. This requires of course equidistant data. If needed, interpolation can be used to create equal time bins for the different variables; but we want to keep the data manipulatioons as limited as possible. When plotting the resulting metric agains the shifts, we will most probably get  a multi-modal graph. As correlation is a signed metric, we want to pick the time-shifts associated to the lowest trough and highest peak. The time-shift related to the highest peak implies that the vaxx is positively correlated to the # deaths. The time-shift related to the lowest through is the duration of the protection from death. Time shifting is a way to implement one of the attributes of a causal association: the cause precedes the effect.

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  • Mon, Oct 25, 2021 - 4:38am

    #7
    Aus

    Aus

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    Posts: 65

    2

    Holy Smokes DF!

    Dave- Chris outa check out this data, great charts! Wave#3 is the tell, looks like vax = higher death for 25-44 when exposed to "Delta" or whatever it is (Lambda, Mu) than unvaxed (assuming Wave #1 and #2 were not vaxed). Even the 45-64  could be the younger end of the spectrum affected i.e. 45-50 still fighting age- for war (capable of resistance).  And we know that the virus affects men more than women right? So do we assume a higher male death rate? If you take out the males from the population, do you then take down the army, navy and airforce? No Afghani weapons required.

    PS- filtering on some of the data now - you're onto something

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  • Mon, Oct 25, 2021 - 5:54am

    #8
    Aus

    Aus

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    1

    Dave-have I got this right?

    So I went to the CDC link (post above) and filtered on Male/Age- COVID/Non COVID death.  Have I got the data right here? - (taking 19th October 2020 and 18th October 2021 as the comparison years).

    Males 15-24 

    • more COVID deaths in 2021 (80) vs 2020 (6)
    • more deaths in 2021(930) vs 2020(559)

    Males 25-34

    • more COVID deaths in 2021(326) vs 2020(19)
    • more deaths in 2021(2178) vs 2020(1002)

    Males 35-44

    • more COVID deaths in 2021(884) vs 2020(48)
    • more deaths in 2021(3266) vs 2020(1254)

    Males 45-54

    • more COVID deaths in 2021(2086) vs 2020(123)
    • more deaths in 2021(5614) vs 2020(2148)

    look at the uptick in deaths generally from COVID for Males (when combined) from 15-54 years, that's 3376 (2021) compared with 196 (2020) i.e. younger Males succumbed to the virus, could it be the vax?  This seems to show up in the death rates for the week i.e. 11,988 deaths for the week in 2021 compared with 4963 at the same time in 2020.  If we say around 4767 deaths are from something "other" than COVID in 2020 and assume this same "othering" is applied in 2021 then (4767-other deaths (death rate for 2020 4963-COVID deaths 196)+ 3376 COVID deaths=8143 deaths) there is still a shortfall of some 3845 deaths, could this be from the vax itself? i.e. you are more likely to die from COVID if you are vaxed than not and you are more likely to die from the vax and that statistically the death rate from the vax (if that's the cause) is higher than the death rate from COVID?

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  • Mon, Oct 25, 2021 - 9:54am

    Quercus bicolor

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    1

    Check out between waves 2-3; July, eary August

    Between June 15 and July 26, 7-day averaged daily covid deaths were below 350, bottoming out at 250.  Let' call that an average of 300.  During this time, excess deaths for ages 45-64 averaged 700 per week or 100 per day.  There is no way this age group represented 1/3 of all covid deaths during that time.

    Aus shows 2086 covid deaths among males in this age group for all of 2021.  I don't have time to get the data now, but if we assume a total of 3500 deaths including females. A quick look at the running death count shows that this period represented less than 4% of all 2021 covid deaths, so we would expect perhaps 125 covid deaths in the 45-64 age group during this 41 day period  when approximately excess deaths among this group from Dave's chart was about  4100.

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  • Mon, Oct 25, 2021 - 2:44pm

    #10

    Jim H

    Status: Silver Member

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    Posts: 1675

    2

    TSLA OMG. Hertz to buy 100K cars

    The news lit a fire under TSLA t0day.  I had posted a bit (and taken a position) after their amazing AI day announcements in Aug.  Since then the stock has climbed from the low 700's to 1027 now today.  Extraordinary.

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  • Tue, Oct 26, 2021 - 11:03am

    #11
    davefairtex

    davefairtex

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    wolf isn't so impressed by TSLA rental sales

    Wolf used to be in the car biz.  This is his wheelhouse.

    Fleet sales are generally not a positive sign.  If retail demand were there, why on earth would you sell 100k cars at a big discount (dropping your margins accordingly) vs selling them to the public at full price?

    https://wolfstreet.com/2021/10/25/tesla-rental-deal-is-propaganda-coup-for-hertzs-selling-shareholders-tesla-but-sales-to-rental-fleets-are-low-quality-sales-automakers-dont-tout/

    Selling vehicles to rental fleets is a low-margin business that automakers don’t tout and that investors consider low-quality sales. When the percentage of fleet sales to overall sales is large, investors consider them a negative. And automakers are hounded for it. And that’s why automakers don’t tout those deals.

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  • Tue, Oct 26, 2021 - 11:53am

    dreinmund

    dreinmund

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    Joined: Mar 19 2011

    Posts: 345

    2

    Wolf's take

    Wolf's take and insight is spot on.

    I worked in the automotive industry for 18 years, and he describes exactly how fleet sales fit in. This is not a bullish sign. It definitely shows demand issues for Teslas in he direct end-customer segment. Except TSLA margins to take a hit on this.

    For traditional car manufacturers, fleet sales were more than 10%, if I remember correctly. For TSLA, financially, this is going to be tough. They can't even make money on existing non-fleet sales (once you back out emissions credits). Lowering margins and adding fleet sales will make things worse. With negative operating margins, you just can't "make up" profitability with volume.

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  • Tue, Oct 26, 2021 - 3:14pm

    #13
    Nate

    Nate

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 05 2009

    Posts: 595

    3

    Lyn Aldin newsletter

    Topics include: 
    -The recent trend shift in value stocks vs growth stocks.
    -How interest rates have impacted equity valuations.
    -An update on inflation, particularly rent/home inflation.
    -A look at the newsletter model portfolio.

    https://www.lynalden.com/october-2021-newsletter/

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  • Wed, Oct 27, 2021 - 8:36am

    #14
    phusg

    phusg

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    Posts: 230

    0

    Sell gold

    > Right. So I am left with this final thought: what will the CCP do when faced with a 30% drop in GDP?

    With their backs against the wall, why wouldn't they become a net seller instead of buyer of gold? As you say China has a lot of gold.

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  • Thu, Oct 28, 2021 - 10:38am

    #15

    thc0655

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Apr 27 2010

    Posts: 2819

    2

    There are only two things that make TSLA stock go up

    Good news or bad news. 🤷🏻‍♂️

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  • Thu, Oct 28, 2021 - 11:39am

    Jim H

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jun 08 2009

    Posts: 1675

    1

    LOL, True that THC...

    I bought some TSLA shortly after their Aug. AI day presentations, because it was clear to me that they were poised to be much more than a car company eventually.  Regarding the idea that fleet sales are a negative.. certainly this is true in the sense of a traditional car company, but what is going on here is not the traditional model.  For one, up to half of these cars purchased by Hertz are intended to be a new kind of taxi fleet model whereby Hertz rents them to highly rated Uber drivers on a weekly basis.  There is something different afoot here - and please note the quote from the article below;

    https://electrek.co/2021/10/28/tesla-order-double-200000-model-3s-satisfy-deal-uber-hertz-ceo/

    During the interview, Fields was also asked whether or not Hertz received a discount from Tesla like it usually does when ordering large fleets, but the CEO wouldn’t comment on the cost.

    Tesla CEO Elon Musk previously said that they didn’t offer a discount on the deal with Hertz.

    Now Hertz had already dipped their toe in the water with Model 3's, so they know the demand, and it must be high - this is a current Hertz website post;

    https://www.hertz.com/blog/electric-vehicles/tesla/model-3/

    I learned my lesson watching Amazon stock over the many years while it was not making money.... reinvesting and reinvesting to become the behemoth that it is today.  TSLA is better, but it's in the same building mode IMO.  Best to all, Jim

    PS.. here is Lex Fridman's post AI day commentary.. It was this commentary, from an MIT AI professor, that really sealed the deal for me on investing in TSLA;





     

     

     

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  • Sat, Oct 30, 2021 - 10:55am

    travelbug007

    travelbug007

    Status: Member

    Joined: Dec 16 2020

    Posts: 13

    2

    no mortality benefit..?

    Dave,

    Would love to present that data to my employer and others! Do yuo have a reference/chart/data i can point to or link I could provide?

    Sorry, late to this conversation, so you may have covered it earlier.

    I think we need to archive/log these charts as they are developed in a spot we can all access, review, update?

     

    Thanks for all,

    Travelbug.

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