Oil

video

Este capítulo sobre el pico del petróleo es trascendental. Recordarán que en el Capítulo 3 dije que vincularíamos los componentes de la sigla “EEMA”. Por el momento vamos a vincular Economía y Energía. Se trata de uno de los capítulos más importantes del Crash Course y deseo reconocer públicamente mi deuda con los cientos de estudiosos que, con suma dedicación y paciencia, fueron reuniendo los datos aquí presentados y trabajaron sin descanso para avanzar en la comprensión del papel que desempeña la energía en nuestras vidas. Rindo aquí homenaje a esas y a muchas otras fuentes.

La energía es la sangre que da vida a cualquier economía. Pero cuando una economía se basa en un sistema monetario de deudas exponenciales y al mismo tiempo necesita para funcionar un suministro también exponencial de energía, la oferta existente de dicha energía exige la mayor atención.

Si nos detenemos en el consumo de energía en Usamérica, representado aquí por este gráfico del Departamento de Energía, veremos que el petróleo representa más del 50% de nuestra energía anual. Si se consideran juntos el petróleo y el gas natural, ese porcentaje alcanza y sobrepasa el 75% de nuestra energía, calculada en cuatrillones de BTU, es decir, de British Thermal Units o unidades térmicas británicas, que representan la cantidad de energía necesaria para elevar un grado Fahrenheit la temperatura de una libra de agua en condiciones atmosféricas normales.

video

You are missing some Flash content that should appear here! Perhaps your browser cannot display it, or maybe it did not initialize correctly.

Also, wir kommen zum Kapitel über Peak Oil - das ist ein grosser Brocken.

In Kapitel 3 sagte ich Ihnen, dass ich die drei „E“ miteinander verknüpfen würde. Nun sind wir daran, die Wirtschaft mit der Energie zu verbinden. Das ist eines der wichtigsten Kapitel, es ist ein Riesenthema.

Ich möchte hervorheben, dass vieles in diesem Kapital auf der Arbeit hunderter engagierter Leute beruht, die Daten zusammengetragen, die Schlüsse daraus gezogen und unermüdlich daran gearbeitet haben, unser Verständnis über die Bedeutung der Energie für unsere Leben voran zu bringen. Ich ziehe meinen Hut vor diesen Leuten. Energie ist der Lebenssaft einer jeden Wirtschaft.

video

You are missing some Flash content that should appear here! Perhaps your browser cannot display it, or maybe it did not initialize correctly.

You are at the part of the Crash Course where everything you learned comes together into a single chapter. Chapter 19 contains a comprehensive view of how all of our problems are actually interrelated and need to be viewed as such or solutions will continue to elude us.

We will review the key trends, which appear to be converging on a very narrow window of the future. Here is a two-second recap of the key issues. If you have watched all of the videos until this point, you will undoubtedly see how they are connected:

Money, credit, growth. Exponential growth. Debt, future, history. Failure to save. Assets, housing, bubble, financial panic. Demographics, wealth, boomers, falling values. Fuzzy numbers. Energy, oil, growth. Peak Oil. Environment, resources, exploitation, change.

This chapter will connect the dots and beckon us toward the future.

video

You are missing some Flash content that should appear here! Perhaps your browser cannot display it, or maybe it did not initialize correctly.

In Crash Course Chapter 18: The Environment, Chris Martenson explains how multiple essential resources are being depleted at ever faster rates. Our money system requires continual economic growth, but energy depletion will run headlong into dwindling resource returns to limit future growth options. Overpopulation will increase competition and demand for fossil fuel energy sources such as crude oil and coal, as well as for natural gas and sources of alternative energy.

In this chapter, Peak Coal, Peak Uranium, and copper extraction are explored as illustrations challenging long-held assumptions about the inevitable certainty of continued global economic expansion. This chapter makes it easy to understand why careful management of our natural resources will be necessary for our economic and environmental future.

video

You are missing some Flash content that should appear here! Perhaps your browser cannot display it, or maybe it did not initialize correctly.

In theory, there’s nothing problematic with living in a world full of exponential growth and depletion curves – as long as the world does not have any boundaries. However, exponential functions take on enormous importance when they approach a physical boundary, as seems to be the case for oil in the very near future. Both discoveries and production indicate that we could be at oil’s exponential boundary already.

We can make a very strong case that both population and our money system are utterly dependent on the continued expansion of oil energy. But what if our exponentially-based economic and monetary systems, rather than being the sophisticated culmination of human evolution, are really just an artifact of oil? What if all of our rich societal complexity and all of our trillions of dollars of wealth and debt simply are the human expression of surplus energy pumped from the ground?

What will happen to our exponential, debt-based money system? Is it even possible for it to function in a world without constant growth? These are important questions, and they deserve answers.

video

You are missing some Flash content that should appear here! Perhaps your browser cannot display it, or maybe it did not initialize correctly.

Energy is the lifeblood of any economy. But when an economy is based on an exponential debt-based money system that is itself based on exponentially increasing energy supplies, the supply of that energy deserves our very highest attention.

Oil is a miracle, working tirelessly in the background to make our lives easy beyond historical measure. Oil represents over 50% of US total yearly energy use, while oil and natural gas together represent over 75%. How easily could we replace the role of oil in our style of consumer-led, growth based economy? Not very.

Peak Oil is simply a fact. Peak Oil is NOT synonymous with “running out of oil.” But the most urgent issue before us does not lie with identifying the precise moment of Peak Oil. What we need to be most concerned with is the day that world petroleum demand outstrips available supply. It is at that moment that the oil markets will change forever - and probably quite suddenly.