How High and When to Sell?

Wednesday, March 28, 2012, 12:24 PM
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How High and When to Sell?

by Chris Martenson
Wednesday, March 28, 2012

Executive Summary

  • Confiscation and/or excessive taxation of gold seem low risks at the moment
  • Our price projections for gold
  • How to know when to sell your gold
  • What to exchange your gold for

Part I: Gold is Manipulated (But That's Okay)

If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Part II: How High and When to Sell?

Confiscation and/or Taxation

Here is a quick aside on the prospect of confiscation and/or additional and punitive taxation of gold (and silver) because it comes up often. I think neither is especially likely at this point.

Confiscation will become a concern for me if:

  • Gold is ever remonetized. Should gold become the international choice of cross-border balancing, as I expect it might some day, the chance of it being ‘nationalized’ will skyrocket. However, as was true in the 1930s in the US, I fully expect that holders of gold will be compensated for their holdings. 
  • Gold is demanded for oil. Should a current oil-exporting nation demand that it be paid in gold instead of cash, I would expect gold to be nationalized.
  • Gold crosses $5,000/ounce. Once gold becomes a significant store of value compared to other sources such as money market funds or 401k plans, it might become a target of choice for revenue-strapped governments. As it is right now -- on a relative basis vs. the equity or bond markets -- the size of the entire gold market is a tiny, puny store of value, and therefore not really worth the government's effort.

Should any of these things change, I believe we will have weeks, if not many months, of forewarning of confiscation or additional taxation -- and my alert service will have you prepared well in advance.

There will be rumblings and discussions and other warning signs to forewarn that a change is coming, if one ever does. For now it seems rather unlikely that either confiscation or burdensome taxation is a near and present concern to hold.

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