Enter a comma separated list of user names.


Off the Cuff: Liquidity Crisis 2.0

Ready for another one?
Thursday, March 13, 2014, 11:02 AM

In this week's Off the Cuff podcast, Chris and Mish discuss:

  • Liquidity Crisis 2.0
    • Russia & China may just be the first symptoms
  • Algos Gone Wild
    • Our broken markets are becoming even more so
  • Gold Bottom
    • It's in
  • Too Much Corporate Debt
    • It's going to be a killer in this next downturn

Blueximages |

What Will Be Different About the Crisis of 2014/2015

It's going to be a valuation crisis, not a liquidity one
Wednesday, March 12, 2014, 12:06 PM

Executive Summary

  • The Fed's inability to recognize the true dynamics of the 2008 crisis has re-inflated a market bubble and unfairly rewarded the big banks
  • More credit/liquidity cannot solve valuation/collateral crises. But that's exactly what central banks are trying to do.
  • How the Crisis of 2014/2015 will differ from 2008
  • Why this time, failure of the system will collapse under its futility

If you have not yet read Why 2014 Is Beginning to Look A Lot Like 2008, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part 1, we noted the similarities between early 2008 and 2014, and dismantled Alan Greenspan’s claim that the global meltdown of 2008 was unforeseeable. If markets are fractal, as argued by Benoit Mandelbrot, then we can anticipate more “once in a lifetime” crises than economists expect, and that such crises will be less predictable than expected.

After reviewing some technical charts that suggest trouble ahead in 2014 (or perhaps 2015 if certain cycles hold up), I asked how asset bubbles can be considered a “social good” if the current bubble is not boosting employment or income for the vast majority of Americans. I also wondered how the presumed fundamentals of “growth” (sales, profits, creditworthiness, etc.) can continue expanding if income is stagnating.

In Part 2 of this report, the goal is to examine the policies of the states (central governments) and central banks around the world that have boosted assets such as stocks, bonds and real estate to new highs. What repercussions are they creating, why they are failing, and why they will cause a crisis that will be as damaging as 2008 -- yet unfold quite differently... » Read more


Fed’s Fisher Says Bubbles Might Be Forming

A rare voice of warning from the inside
Monday, March 10, 2014, 3:41 PM

In a recent speech in Mexico, Richard Fisher, the President of the Dallas regional Federal Reserve bank, admitted that there are troubling signs that financial markets are being overly distorted by the Fed’s easy monetary policies.

Actually, if you read between the lines just slightly, he flat out said Stock and bond markets are in dangerous bubble territory. » Read more



Off the Cuff: Fireside Chat

Chris, Charles, Adam, 1 fire & 2 guitars
Thursday, March 6, 2014, 1:58 PM

In this week's Off the Cuff podcast, Chris, Adam and Charles discuss:

  • The Bubble Peak
    • The similarities and differences between today's market and past bubble peaks
  • When the Party's Over
    • Why there will likely be no bounce back from the coming correction
  • When To Deploy Your Dry Powder
    • If raising cash makes sense now, when should we start spending it again?
  • What's In Store for Gold & Silver
    • Is the bottom truly in? If so, what to do next?


How Life Will Change

Logistics and values in the post-industrial future
Wednesday, March 5, 2014, 5:16 AM

Executive Summary

  • In a future defined by diminished economy, due to depleting resources, what can we expect?
  • A return to "old-style" cultural norms looks inevitable for:
    • Spirituality
    • Trust & Reputation
    • Values & Virtues
    • Leadership & Order
    • Education
    • Commerce
    • Jobs & Work

If you have not yet read Are You Crazy To Continue Believing In Collapse? available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

The journey to where we’re going, the transition to the next economy and the society that comes with it, is liable to be harsh and disruptive. Network breakdown will be the order of the day. Money and goods will stop moving. People will lose a lot. They’ll lose property, imagined wealth, comfortable routines, faith in institutions and authorities. In some places they may lose personal security or freedom. Depending on how disorderly politics gets, we may lose family, loved ones, and friends. People will be very unsure of who or what they can depend on. We might expect pervasive desperation, anger, and despair.

One thing I fully expect is... » Read more



Off the Cuff: Capital Is Sloshing Recklessly Around the World

Moving prices out of whack more than anything else
Thursday, February 27, 2014, 3:38 PM

In this week's Off the Cuff podcast, Chris and Brian discuss:

  • The Sloshing Tsunami of Global Capital
    • It's pushing prices around more than any other factor
  • Concerning Correlations
    • Markets are too correlated for their own safety righ tnow
  • The Wisdom of Playing it Safe
    • At its most valuable when it's hardest to practices
  • How The Next Market Break May Differ From 2008
    • Not enough suckers left?

Gunnar3000 |

The Time For Shorting the Market Is Approaching

The dashboard of warning signals is getting bright
Wednesday, February 26, 2014, 8:55 PM

Executive Summary

  • Why stocks may average 0% return (!) for the next decade
  • The depressing data in
    • Retail sales
    • Housing
    • Manufacturing
    • Consumer confidence
  • Why the time to short the market is looking near

If you have not yet read The Stock Market's Shaky Foundation, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

To be sure, there is one piece of fundamental information that has supported equity prices; and that’s corporate earnings.

Those have vaulted to new highs, despite the weak economic recovery, on the back of ultra-cheap borrowing (which reduces interest costs which are deducted from earnings), government deficit spending, and low household savings:

While the parabolic rise in corporate earnings is quite impressive, they are also historically unprecedented and certainly unsustainable. 

When we look at the same chart seen above but on a percent change yr/yr basis we see that they have been slowing down remarkably and aren't that far above the zero mark... » Read more



A Deadly Diet

Corporate interests are feeding us poison
Monday, February 24, 2014, 3:26 PM

One of the interesting things to emerge from my recent research into this area of nutritional health is the extent to which major food companies have been “on the ball” for decades now suppressing information on the awful health effects of some of their major products.

Sugar is the biggie.

I am old enough to remember the innumerable products that were sold as ‘low fat’…because that was the way to lose weight and be healthier.

There were low fat cookies, ice cream, sour cream, and cereal products. » Read more


Sasha Maksymenko/Flickr Creative Commons

Off the Cuff: It's All About Resources

Competition & conflicts are heating up
Thursday, February 20, 2014, 1:51 PM

In this week's Off the Cuff podcast, Chris and Jim discuss:

  • What the Ukraine Is Telling US
    • Resources are at the heart of coming conflicts
  • US Oil Is Back Over $100/Barrel
    • The 'Long Emergency' is real
  • Age Wars
    • Generational friction is on the rise
  • The Social Dynamics of the Future
    • Why they'll likely feel quite different from today's

Amir Ridhwan/Shutterstock

The 10 Factors Destroying our Social Health

Through better understanding, we can reverse them
Monday, February 17, 2014, 12:58 PM

Executive Summary

  • The erosion of community is due to many factors
  • Understanding these factors enables us to begin combating them
  • The 10 reasons American social capital is declining
  • What it will take for a revival in social cooperation

If you have not yet read The Erosion of Community, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part 1, we surveyed a number of explanations for the erosion of community, starting with the landmark 1950 book, The Lonely Crowd, and found that no one theory adequately accounted for the decline of social capital in America.

Here are ten other factors that could be factors in this long-term erosion:

1.  The explosion of choices in the mass media (mentioned by Robert Putnam and Kevin K.) now offers endless opportunities to form a protective bubble around oneself: if you only want to hear views that confirm your existing biases, it's now very easy to do so, and you don’t even need to go out into the real world to do so.

Since confirming our own beliefs is safe and comfortable, our collective reaction may be to avoid people who might disagree with us. Eventually, such isolated individuals “socializing” in self-selected groups online lose the ability to function productively in diverse groups of real people in a real community.

2.  The mobility demanded of labor.  The mobility of labor in America--that workers can pull up stakes and move to better job opportunities--is often lauded as the key to the U.S. economy's flexibility and resilience. This is no doubt true, but that mobility eviscerates community: if you move every 2-3 years (as required of military personnel, Corporate America managers and many others), what's the motivation for joining and contributing to local groups?... » Read more