Insider

Enter a comma separated list of user names.
Insider

Ollyy/Shuttestock

Off The Cuff: The Invisible Recession

Evidence is everywhere but no one wants to see it
Thursday, November 5, 2015, 12:04 AM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Brian Pretti discuss:

  • The Invisible Recession
    • Horrible economic weakness that everyone is ignoring
  • The Insiders Are Getting Out
    • Those in the know are taking chips off the table
  • Real Estate Is Peaking
    • Rents and prices can't maintain at these levels
  • Ever-Doubling Debt
    • US national debt has DOUBLED since 2008
Insider

Sergey Nivens/Shutterstock

Time To Review

Markets are soaring on terrible, awful data
Tuesday, November 3, 2015, 12:37 AM

Back in August things were falling apart.  Macro-economic indicators were steadily worsening, corporate profits and revenues were suddenly falling, and US unemployment came in far worse than expected.

Of course in today's bizzarro logic, that meant only one thing:  the equity “”markets”” were going to be bid up, and gold was going to be held in check.

Both have not only come to pass, but have done so in spectacular fashion. » Read more

Insider

Everett Collection/Shutterstock

Somebody Has To Be Wrong Here

Either it's truly different this time, or it isn't
Tuesday, October 27, 2015, 10:52 PM

As we suffer the interminable wait for the global monetary and fiscal authorities to finally relent and allow some semblance of reality to creep back into the financial markets, it’s completely obvious that somebody has to be wrong here.

Either it’s possible to continue to inflate asset markets forever, even in the absence of organic (or even inorganic) economic growth, or it’s not. » Read more

Insider

JRMurray76/Shutterstock

Off The Cuff: Deploy The Flying Pigs!

All rationality has left the markets
Monday, October 26, 2015, 5:06 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Mish discuss:

  • Looks Like We'll Need A Bigger Bazooka
    • Draghi hints at more QE
  • The Schizophrenic Fed
    • Exploring both raising & lowering rates
  • No Rationality Left
    • Depression-level results RAISES stocks?
  • Banning Physical Cash
    • Still the plan of the central bank cartel

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today. » Read more

Insider

BsWei/Shutterstock

Why The Next Drop Will Likely Be 30-40%

A re-awakened bear can do a lot of damage to a bubble market
Friday, October 23, 2015, 4:12 PM

Executive Summary

  • New bear market + re-enter recession = 30-40% drop in stock prices
  • What are the chart of the best technical indicators telling us?
  • Confusion reigns during the transition from bull market to bear
  • Why volatility will reign & capital protection should be prioritized

If you have not yet read Part 1: Has The Market Trend Shifted From Bull To Bear? available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

It’s The Global Economy, Stupid!

I believe another key question for equity investors right now is whether the recent noticeable slowing in global economic trajectory ultimately results in recession.  Why is this important?  According to the playbook of historical experience, stock market corrections that occur in non-recessionary environments tend to be shorter and less violent than corrections that take place within the context of actual economic recession.  Corrections in non-recessionary environments have been on average contained to the 10-20% range.  Corrective stock price periods associated with recession have been worse, many associated with 30-40% price declines known as “bear market” environments.

We can see exactly this in the following graph.  We are looking at the Dow Jones Global Index.  This is a composite of the top 350 companies on planet Earth.  If the fortunes of these companies do not represent and reflect the rhythm of the global economy, I do not know what does.  The blue bars marked in the chart are the periods covering last two US recessions.  US recessions that were accompanied by downturns in major developed economies globally.  As I’ve stated many a time, economies globally are.... » Read more

Insider

Krasowit/Shutterstock

Devastating Shale Oil Losses

Coming soon to a bank near you
Monday, October 19, 2015, 4:12 PM

Sometimes it helps to examine one narrow slice of the pie as a means to understanding the entire pie. In the case of the shale oil Ponzi scheme, we can both wrap our minds around the scale of the predicament and also answer the question of who the losses will be foisted on.

Once we’ve done that, you should be able to simply apply the same logic and learning to other sectors of the financial universe.  Learn one sub-bubble, learn them all; like a fractal foam of misadventure. » Read more

Insider

Jaroslav Machacek/Shutterstock

How To Protect Yourself & Profit From This Manipulation

Also: is the bottom in for precious metals?
Friday, October 16, 2015, 7:45 PM

Executive Summary

  • What the Great Gold Smash of 2013 tells us
  • Was $1,075/oz gold the bottom? Is the bottom indeed in?
  • Is a new bull trend ahead for precious metals?
  • How to hedge against -- and speculate on, for those who dare --  future manipulation attempts

If you have not yet read Part 1: EXCLUSIVE: The Smoking Gun Proving Silver & Gold Manipulation available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Now let's look at the great gold smash of 2013.

There were three separate operations I saw on or around the gold smash of 2013:

Operation #1: On April 12, gold had already broken below the 1525 support level to close at 1501 after dropping $100 over the two preceding months.  After a long decline followed by a support break, the market was in a very fragile state.  Sunday rolled around, and “someone” chose this moment to unload $95 in 13 volatility events over the course of just 13 hours.  This avalanche decisively drove gold down $150 in just one day.  This engineered follow-through using volatility events coming immediately after the support break resulted in the total annihilation of the longs.  Price still has not recovered from that move.

Operation #2: two days after the $150 drop, another 3-event $23 assault completely failed.  Price did not move at all.  In fact, it rallied on the day.  Why?  Why didn't we get another $150 drop?  Well, 1325 turned out to be strong support.  Buyers came out in droves to pick up the lower-priced gold.  And so when gold dropped $23 due to the volatility events, COMEX buyers snapped up the lower priced gold, and as a result the assault completely failed.

Operation #3: two months later, another 1-event $24 assault had only a very minor effect.  Price fell that day a few bucks, which was regained the day following.  Support was not quite as strong, but the market was clearly not in a fragile state at that point either.  This assault failed as well, since there was no support break and no price reset lower.

Here are three events, in relatively close proximity to one another, but under three different sets of “chart circumstances” which provided three different outcomes.  One worked, two others didn't.  The difference, I maintain, was where the market was at each point.  Fragile markets appear vulnerable to volatility events.  Strong markets are not.

Now let's look at the most recent event: July 20, 2015... » Read more

Insider

Peak Prosperity

Off The Cuff: Prosper!

Announcing the upcoming release of our new book
Friday, October 16, 2015, 3:15 AM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Adam discuss:

  • Announcing our new book: Prosper!
    • Releasing publicly on Nov 17th
  • Destroying The Public's Trust
    • Another valuable fast-depleting resource
  • Eroding Sentiment
    • It's what causes bubble to pop. And we're seeing a lot of it.
  • US Intervention In The Middle East
    • The worst topic for wrapping up a podcast...

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today. » Read more

Insider

Greenfire/Shutterstock

How A Major Housing Correction Can Happen Over The Next 1.5 Years

Own a home? This is a must-read.
Friday, October 9, 2015, 5:11 PM

Executive Summary

  • The Fed Won't Be Able To Soak Up Bad Mortgages Like It Once Did
  • Chinese Capital Will Dry Up After Capital Controls Are Imposed
  • The weakening petro-dollar will weaken demand for high-end housing
  • The inevitable symmetry of bubbles will force a price mean-reversion

If you have not yet read Part 1: How Much Longer Can Our Unaffordable Housing Prices Last? available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part 1, we looked at factors that limit further home price appreciation—mortgage rates that can’t go much lower and stagnant household incomes—and factors that could continue to push prices higher in islands of strong job growth and global demand.

Here in Part II, we’ll look at several dynamics that could deflate the current Housing Bubble #2, even in areas currently experiencing high demand for housing such as New York City and San Francisco.

The Fed Will Encounter Political Headwinds in Pushing Money to the Wealthy

Setting aside cash buyers from overseas, a major factor in the inflation of Housing Bubble #2 was the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing programs that expanded the pool of money available to the already-wealthy while prompting very little “trickling down” of this new money to the bottom 90% of households.

The one Fed policy that aided the bottom 90% was buying $1.75 trillion of home mortgages. This unprecedented buying spree helped push mortgage rates down to equally unprecedented lows.

But as this chart shows, the Fed is... » Read more

Insider

Off The Cuff: Signs Of A Roll-Over

It increasingly looks like we're past the market peak
Thursday, October 8, 2015, 6:54 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and John Rubino discuss:

  • A Lack Of Logic
    • Markets today no longer trade on sense
  • Signs Of A Roll-Over
    • It increasingly looks like we're past the market peak
  • Black Swans Are Landing
    • Volkswagen, Glencore & Deutche Bank
  • What Separates The Rich From The Poor?
    • The Fed

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today. » Read more