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Currency Wars Continue

Monday, October 11, 2010, 11:49 AM

I admit, there are certainly some very interesting things unfolding over in the mortgage world, but as much as I think they are important and worth following, they are not the greatest risk we face at this time.

The mortgage fraud mess has the potential to trigger for the next down-cycle, but it's not going to supply the majority of the fuel for the next conflagration.

For that we need to keep our attention riveted upon the looming currency wars.

This weekend at the IMF's annual meeting, the world's economic leaders tried to iron out some differences on the subject of currency manipulation and debasement.  The bottom line is that everybody wants a cheaper currency; practically all major countries are actively pursuing cheap-currency policies.  And tensions are building.  Here's how the US press described the outcome:

» Read more

Insider

Live Update From ASPO

Friday, October 8, 2010, 8:56 AM

I am learning so much at the ASPO conference that I thought I should just 'stream' it along to you as I learn it.  While I could sit on it for a while and work it into more polished content, I think that getting it to you faster has its benefits.

One of my greatest joys here is meeting all the enrolled members and Crash Course admirers in attendance.  I love being able to put faces with screen names.  I would like to find more chances to do this somehow.

At any rate, what follows will simply be stream-of-consciousness writing from my time here.

Insider

Our Destructive Tendency to Print (or, Why the Markets Bolted Yesterday)

Wednesday, October 6, 2010, 2:15 PM

Stocks soared, bonds caught a huge bid, and commodities of every description took off - grains, energy, metals, gold, and silver.

What happened?  Was it suddenly determined that everything was worth more all at once?  No, what happened is this:  The markets are figuring out that what we have been predicting here for several years is, in fact, the direction in which the world is actually headed.  Printing is being selected over austerity. » Read more

Insider

A New Arrival

Monday, October 4, 2010, 12:35 AM

I have some happy organizational news to share today, and as a valued enrolled member, you're hearing it first before we announce it to the site at large. Our small staff here at Martenson Central welcomes our first general manager, Adam Taggart. » Read more

Insider

Prediction: Things Will Unravel Faster Than You Think

Friday, October 1, 2010, 4:26 PM

Prediction: Things Will Unravel Faster Than You Think

Friday, October 1, 2010

Executive Summary

  • We do not live in a linear world
  • Complex systems are inherently unpredictable (sort of)
  • Accepting "what is"
  • Banking on perception
  • The dawning of awareness of Peak Oil, sovereign insolvency, & currency debasement
  • Hope alone is a terrible strategy
  • What you should do

Part I

If you have not yet read Part I of this report, please click here to read it first.

Part II

Banking On Perception

When it comes to markets riding on a flawed fundamental premise, perception is everything.  

Consider that in December of 2007, the world had plenty of food, but by February of 2008, we saw food riots and the international perception of food scarcity.  Almost nothing had changed with respect to the fundamental quantities of food stocks between December and February, and that's the point.

Or consider that one month Iceland was in fine shape and the next month desperately broke.  Ditto for Greece.  Again, there was nothing that had fundamentally changed from one month to the next, in terms of cash flows or debt levels, that would justify the size of the adjustments, but they happened nonetheless, and they happened quickly. 

Insider

All-Out Currency Wars

Tuesday, September 28, 2010, 12:41 PM

The currency wars have begun, and the implications to world stability and wealth could not be more profound. Fortunately, all of my long-time enrolled members are prepared for this outcome, which we've been predicting here for some time.

When pressed, the most predictable decision in all of history is to print, print, print.  So I can't take credit for a 'prediction' that was just slightly bolder than 'predicting' which way a dropped anvil will travel; down or up?

The only problem is, widespread currency debasements will further destabilize an already rickety global financial system where tens of trillions of fiat dollars flow daily on the currency exchanges.

Here's a recent sampling of news items demonstrating the fever pitch that is being built:

» Read more

Insider

Poking China, Goosing Gold

Friday, September 24, 2010, 10:31 AM

Well, what the Fed meeting started, the Obama administration seems intent on continuing; namely, the trashing of the dollar and the elevation of gold.  First, the Fed announced that they are ready to print more thin-air money, something that comes as no surprise to anyone here, as this has been predicted on these pages for several years.  It is just the most obvious outcome (or ending) for any fiat currency. 

Then the Obama administration, almost certainly engaging in pre-election maneuvering, poked a very sharp stick at China in a manner of which the potential impact should not be underestimated:

» Read more

Insider

Fed Statement Launches Gold, Markets; Sinks Dollar

Tuesday, September 21, 2010, 3:28 PM

Well, the Fed held its meeting and dutifully released a very measured statement, as expected by those who are familiar with the way the Fed adopts a 'steady as she goes' policy this close to an election.

Truthfully, I don't see anything exceptional in the Fed statement, but the markets responded quite strongly to the release.

They started with the usual 'not so hot, but not too terrible' outlook that has dominated their views for quite some time:

» Read more

Insider

Chris Live in Norway

Friday, September 17, 2010, 12:28 PM

A while back, I was offered the opportunity to present the Crash Course concepts to an audience in Norway at an innovation conference called "InnoTown."  I thought it went quite well.

Just yesterday we got private access to the recording of my presentation, which I am making available to enrolled members here for an early peek.  I think this recording and the presentation are quite well done, and I am happy with the result. » Read more

Insider

Energy Concerns Are Mounting

Monday, September 13, 2010, 9:49 AM

Energy Concerns Are Mounting

Monday, September 13, 2010

Executive Summary

  • Many interlocking factors have caused current economic woes.
  • Most of the issues are still almost strictly economically driven; energy's role is still to come.
  • World energy consumption, at current rates of growth, will double in 35 years.
  • Alternative fuels cannot displace oil use, but they can be helpful in electricity production and other areas.
  • We should be using our highly-concentrated energy sources to capture less-dense alternative energy sources.
  • The next energy shock is closer than most people realize.
  • The perception of scarcity will create scarcity.
  • Now is the time for prudent preparations.

In my last Insider entry, I made a number of claims that sparked a lot of good comments.  I will respond to a sampling of them here.  If I don't address your comment, please know that I read and considered every one. I value and encourage continued input through comments, forum posts, and email.

There are multiple interlocking topics embedded in the question, "Why is the economy down right now?" I don't see any one particular cause.  Yes, there was too much debt, but there was also falling net energy from flat petroleum production between 2004 and 2008.  Oil also happened to spike in price.  Which one 'caused' the economic meltdown and the deep freeze that followed?  All of these factors, and a few others besides.