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It's Official: The Economy Is Set To Starve

Tuesday, November 23, 2010, 1:18 PM

It's Official: The Economy Is Set To Starve

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Executive Summary

  • The age of conventional oil is over, but energy demand will continue to climb.
  • Natural gas is the "silver" of energy plays.
  • The inexorable onset of Peak Oil will drive natural gas much, much higher.
  • A tipping point of awareness approaches.
  • Prepare for extreme market volatility.

Part I

It's the End of the Oil As We Know It...

Please click here to read Part I of this report.

Part II

Scouring the Globe for Fuel

Please click here to read Part II of this report.

Part III

Okay, so we've come to the conclusion that by the time the IEA, which has every incentive to underplay the timing and impact of Peak Oil, has publicly done everything but hand the world an engraved invitation on a silver platter that reads You are cordially invited to accept the reality of Peak Oil, it's already past time to begin making whatever adjustments you are going to make.

Remember, it is my view that when the changes finally arrive in full force, their speed will overtake most people's, countries', and companies' ability to react gracefully. (Click here for a recent report on this subject). Which means that the time to begin these efforts, if you have not already started, is now.

But we've gone over this in quite a bit of detail recently, and so I will not rehash those thoughts here and now. This report begins with the assumption that you have taken care of the basics: food, water, energy, and shelter. Further, you have gold and silver. You've got enough spare goods, parts, and necessities to take care of yourself, your family, and a few others besides. You've safely removed a comfortable portion of your wealth from the paper-based banking and financial systems. You are diligently working on building your local community.

Okay, so you've done all of that.  Now what?

Insider

Chris Interviews Ted Butler: The End of Silver Price Manipulation - Part 2

Friday, November 19, 2010, 10:21 AM

The second part of Chris' interview with Ted Butler, noted commentator on the silver market, is reserved below for you, our enrolled members.

If you've not yet listened to Part 1, click here to do so.

Part 2 of the interview takes a deep dive into the mechanics of how the alleged manipulation of the silver price has been conducted, as well as Ted's outlook on the future price for the metal.

Simply put, this interview (Parts 1 & 2) is a 'must listen' for anyone currently invested in silver or thinking about doing so. » Read more

Insider

Silver, Indecisive Markets, and You

Thursday, November 18, 2010, 1:37 PM

I recently conducted an interview with Ted Butler, the silver champion and analyst, and he got me really excited about what silver may do over the next few years. The podcast of that interview will have both a public portion and a private portion for enrolled members. In the exclusive part, you will learn about some of the reasons that silver may perform really, really well over the coming years.

I said I would be keeping any eye on the silver markets to see if/when the next buy point might come. While I was expecting a bounce, today's actions caught me off-guard.

» Read more

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Bond Market Rebels, QE II Under Attack?

Tuesday, November 16, 2010, 12:27 PM

Oh my. What is the world coming to?

The bond market seems to have gone "off script" and is defying the Fed's recent announcement of $600 billion in new Treasury purchases.

This would be a rather stunning rebuke of the Fed's supposed omnipotence and leadership.  If it gets out of hand, it could be a real game-changer.

Yes, we had the international community condemn QEII as little more than banana-republic-style money printing, but for the domestic bond market to join into the fray seems rather ominous:

» Read more

Insider

Commodities, Stocks, and Bonds (?!) Slammed

Friday, November 12, 2010, 2:25 PM

Well, it's an interesting day on the markets; one that could signal an important change in trend.

The 10-year bond is down (and the 7-year and 5-year down even more, in terms of basis points), stocks are down, and commodities are down hard. And the dollar is down, too. Not by much, but it's down. This breaks the inverse dollar correlation that's been dominating the landscape for a while and has me wondering if a change in trend is not upon us.

Certainly this could all be part of the normal correction process for markets that have all been on fire (to the upside) for the past three months. But it's also quite a departure from recent action, and it has my attention.

Before I go any further, let me reiterate my position on silver, gold, and the commodities.

» Read more

Insider

Alert: QE II Has Lit The Fuse

Thursday, November 11, 2010, 2:42 PM
Thursday, November 11, 2010

Executive Summary

  • The US is one failed auction away from economic meltdown.
  • OECD countries are not aligned on what battle they're fighting.
  • 'Emergency' measures governments are now taking will become permanent.
  • Currency devaluation & higher prices are inevitable.
  • Time to prepare is running out. Use the time you have wisely.
  • Chris gives specifics of his personal preparations for use as a guide.

Part I

If you have not yet read Part I of this report, please click here to read it first.

Part II

To quickly review Part I, the US has embarked on a very dangerous strategy of trying to print its way to prosperity, and various countries have, in exceptionally strong terms, indicated severe displeasure with the move. Essentially, they've determined that the US is trying to export its difficulties to them, and this is not appreciated.

So what do we make of this, and what might happen next?

I'll be honest with you here: I have been redoubling my efforts at personal preparation over the past few weeks (and they were already on set to "high" over the past six months). I now see a very high possibility that a fiscal and/or associated dollar crisis could happen in the next 12 months. How high? Right now it looks like 50/50 to me; it's a coin flip (or Russian roulette with three in the cylinder, if you prefer).

All that would be required to set match to dry tinder would be a single failed Treasury auction. You may consider this unlikely due to the presence of the Fed backstopping all new government borrowing, and that's certainly a valid consideration, but the wildcard here is that the Fed is merely backstopping all the new Treasury issuances. As I indicated in part one, above, while the US might be floating roughly $1.2 - $1.5 trillion in new Treasuries in 2011, there's another $3 trillion or so of 'rollovers' that have to go off without a hitch as well.

Insider

Germany Attacks US Economic Policy

Monday, November 8, 2010, 11:17 AM

The title of this piece comes straight from a Financial Times article posted this morning. The German finance minister leveled the cannons and blasted away at US policy, daring to point out that emperor has no clothes.

In a vigorous and unflinching attack, he described US economic policies as "clueless" and pointed out that the US stance towards China's exchange rate policy is hypocritical.

In several of the scenarios that I have written, I have used 'words' from a German official as the trigger for massive, disruptive change. So perhaps I am overly sensitized to this particular development, but I am convinced that this is exactly how the ball gets rolling; someone in a position of authority speaks the truth.

» Read more

Insider

The Slippery Slope

Friday, November 5, 2010, 1:03 PM

QE II is now out of the bag, ready to alter the course of history.

There are several assessments that I've held over the years that have never wavered:

  • Thin-air money printing. U.S. monetary and fiscal authorities (the Fed and Congress, respectively) will make every attempt to print and spend their way out of this financial predicament and will not take the path of austerity until forced to by external circumstances.
  • Gold and silver are an excellent way to protect your wealth from the form of confiscation that thin-air money printing represents.
  • Over the next 20 years, resource issues, especially in energy, specifically in petroleum, are going to fundamentally reshape the economic landscape. And maybe the political and social landscapes to boot.

More than two years ago now, reacting to an increase in the levels of government and Federal Reserve bailouts (The Day Everything Changed), I opined that a course had been set and that we were in all new territory that would lead to a dollar crisis someday.

This was my conclusion on September 19, 2008:

» Read more

Insider

A Slow Tumble

Tuesday, November 2, 2010, 3:07 PM

Here's one of three scenarios I wrote for the upcoming book.  As long as we leave this behind the firewall (no sending or reproducing please), this is okay.

I am almost done with the book editing process, which began 10 days ago. 70,000+ words, 51 graphs/images, hundreds of references....suffice it to say that going through all of that in just 10 days has been quite a feat - and leave it at that.

Enjoy the sneak peek!

Scenario 1: A Slow Tumble

Framing: In this scenario, nothing ever goes horribly wrong, but neither does anything ever quite work “right” again. What has worked in the past doesn’t seem to work anymore, greatly puzzling the economic and financial authorities. 

It is October of 2014, and the U.S. and European economic leaders are meeting for the second time in six months for another summit on how to combat the persistent economic weakness that has stumped and embarrassed central bankers and politicians alike. Unemployment has remained stubbornly high—well over 10 percent in both economic arenas—and successive rounds of stimulus, both monetary and fiscal, have perplexingly failed to have any lasting impact on either employment or final demand.

» Read more

Insider

More Liquidity on the Way

Monday, October 25, 2010, 5:07 PM

The most anticipated announcement of the year - perhaps too anticipated (sell the news?) - will answer the question, "How much new money will the Fed decide dump into the situation at their next meeting?"

Estimates range from a low of $500 billion to as high as $4 trillion. In the middle of the range is Bill Gross of PIMCO, who thinks the Fed needs to buy around $100 billion a month of US Treasuries (effectively monetizing the entire US deficit next year), while the high end is claimed by Jan Hatzius of Goldman Sachs, who makes the case that the Fed's own "Taylor Rule" requires them to buy $4 trillion if they wish to close the apparent gap that exists between that rule and economic reality.

What began as a temporary rescue operation by the Fed and the feds to try and perform a normal Keynesian jump-start operation on the economy is now a permanent fixture without which the markets cannot operate.

» Read more