Insider http://www.peakprosperity.com/insider/newest?title=&uid=&created= en How My Personal Portfolio Is Positioned Right Now http://www.peakprosperity.com/insider/98983/how-my-personal-portfolio-positioned-right-now ]]><h1><strong>Executive Summary</strong></h1> <blockquote><p><em>If you have not yet read <a href="http://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/98985/fortunes-will-made-lost-when-capital-flees-safety" target="_blank">Part 1: Fortunes Will Be Made &amp; Lost When Capital Flees To Safety</a> available free to all readers, please <a href="http://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/98985/fortunes-will-made-lost-when-capital-flees-safety" target="_blank"><strong>click here</strong></a> to read it first.</em></p> </blockquote> <p>So, given the conclusions in <a href="http://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/98985/fortunes-will-made-lost-when-capital-flees-safety" target="_blank">Part 1</a> -- as well as the larger risks to the economy and financial markets that we analyze daily here at Peak Prosperity -- how am I positioning my own personal investments?</p> <p>I get asked this question often. Often enough that I&#39;m deciding to open the kimono here and let it drop to the ground. Everyone interested to look will get the full frontal.</p> <p>Before I do though, let me make a few things absolutely clear.&nbsp;<strong>This is NOT personal financial advice.</strong>&nbsp;The investment choices I&#39;ve made are based on my own unique situation, financial goals and risk tolerance. And I may change these choices at any moment given new market developments. What&#39;s appropriate for me may not be for you, so <strong>DO NOT </strong>blindly duplicate what I&#39;m doing.</p> <p>As always, we recommend working with a professional financial adviser to build an investment plan customized to your own needs and objectives. (If you do not have a financial adviser or do not feel comfortable with your current adviser&#39;s expertise in the market risks we discuss here at PeakProsperity.com, consider scheduling a free consultation with&nbsp;<a href="http://www.greylockpeak.com/" target="_blank">our endorsed adviser</a>)</p> <p>Suffice it to say, any investment ideas sparked by this report should be reviewed with your financial adviser before taking any action. Am I being excessively repetitive here in order to drive this point home? Good...</p> <p>OK, with that out of the way, let&#39;s get started. I&#39;ll walk through the asset classes I own and my rationale for holding each.</p> <p>The strategy behind my portfolio allocation is of my own devise, though it has been influenced in no small part by the good folks at New Harbor Financial, Peak Prosperity&#39;s aforementioned endorsed financial adviser.</p> <p>At a high level, it has been constructed to address my strongly-held conclusions that:</p> <ul> <li>Prices of most asset classes are dangerously overvalued</li> <li>The risk of another economic contraction on par with (or greater than) the Great Recession within the next 2-4 years is uncomfortably high</li> <li>The most likely path is we will experience a short period of coming deflation, followed soon after by one of high inflation as central banks starting printing currency without restraint (the Ka-POOM theory)</li> <li>Capital will increasingly want to flow from paper assets (tertiary wealth) into tangible ones (primary and secondary wealth)</li> <li>This is a time to prioritize protecting capital (defense) over speculating on how to grow it (offense)</li> <li>Diversification is wise: just be emotionally prepared that some of your bets, by definition, will not pay off</li> <li>In today&#39;s world of financial repression, no asset class is truly &quot;safe&quot;. As such, asset performance is all relative.</li> </ul> <p>This is not a swing-for-the-fences portfolio. It&#39;s much more of a prepare-for-the-storm approach...</p> <p><a href="http://www.peakprosperity.com/insider/98983/how-my-personal-portfolio-positioned-right-now" target="_blank">read more</a></p> http://www.peakprosperity.com/insider/98983/how-my-personal-portfolio-positioned-right-now#comments Insider cash dollar farmland gold hard assets hedging housing precious metals real estate silver tangible assets http://www.peakprosperity.com/crss/node/98983 Fri, 24 Jun 2016 20:46:10 +0000 Adam Taggart 98983 at http://www.peakprosperity.com Brexit Shocker! http://www.peakprosperity.com/insider/99194/brexit-shocker ]]><p>The political and financial landscapes have been altered by last night upset &quot;Leave&quot; vote in Britain and now we have to try and make sense of the new terrain.</p> <p style="line-height: 18.2px; background-color: rgb(253, 255, 255);">This is huge. Not that a Brexit&nbsp;&#39;Leave&#39; vote has anything at all to with, say, Caterpillar&rsquo;s earnings over the next few quarters. It has nothing at all to do with anything fundamental, but these &ldquo;&rdquo;markets&rdquo;&rdquo; have been anything but fundamental for years.</p> <p style="line-height: 18.2px; background-color: rgb(253, 255, 255);">They&#39;ve become gigantic, globally interconnected, leveraged speculating casinos. Nothing but a massive set of bubbles in search of a pin.</p> <p style="line-height: 18.2px; background-color: rgb(253, 255, 255);">It looks like they may have just found one...</p> <p><a href="http://www.peakprosperity.com/insider/99194/brexit-shocker" target="_blank">read more</a></p> http://www.peakprosperity.com/insider/99194/brexit-shocker#comments Insider Brexit Britain david cameron Euro http://www.peakprosperity.com/crss/node/99194 Fri, 24 Jun 2016 14:30:23 +0000 cmartenson 99194 at http://www.peakprosperity.com Off the Cuff: Things Are Toppy http://www.peakprosperity.com/insider/98984/cuff-things-toppy ]]><p style="line-height: 19.5px;line-height: 19.5px;"><a href="https://s3.amazonaws.com/cm-us-standard/audio/off-the-cuff-230-sample.mp3" target="_blank">Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast</a> or <a href="http://www.peakprosperity.com/enroll" target="_blank">Enroll</a> today to access the full audio and other premium content today.</p> <p><a href="http://www.peakprosperity.com/insider/98984/cuff-things-toppy" target="_blank">read more</a></p> http://www.peakprosperity.com/insider/98984/cuff-things-toppy#comments Insider Charles Hugh Smith Off The Cuff http://www.peakprosperity.com/crss/node/98984 Wed, 22 Jun 2016 02:34:30 +0000 Adam Taggart 98984 at http://www.peakprosperity.com How To Prepare For War http://www.peakprosperity.com/insider/99010/how-prepare-war ]]><h1><strong>Executive Summary</strong></h1> <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">How to Prepare for: <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Trade War</li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Energy War</li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Financial War</li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Cyberwar</li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Grid-down attack</li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Conventional Shooting War</li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Nuclear War</li> </ul> </li> </ul> <blockquote><p><em>If you have not yet read <a href="http://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/99008/tensions-between-usnato-russia-flaring-dangerously" target="_blank">Part 1:&nbsp;Tensions Between US/NATO &amp; Russia Are Flaring Dangerously</a> available free to all readers, please <a href="http://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/99008/tensions-between-usnato-russia-flaring-dangerously" target="_blank"><strong>click here</strong></a> to read it first.</em></p> </blockquote> <blockquote><p>As a preamble, I need to note that I do not enjoy or derive any satisfaction from writing about or spending time on figuring out how to dodge the worst impacts of human behavior.&nbsp; War sits right at the top of my &lsquo;<em>this is stupid&rsquo;</em> list.&nbsp; War should be the very last resort after all other diplomatic efforts have failed.&nbsp; I am sorry that I have to spend time writing this report, and I am sorry that you have to spend time considering it.</p> </blockquote> <p>As (sadly) expected, things have only escalated over the past several years, not deescalated.&nbsp; The West has a serious bone to pick with Russia and nobody can rationally explain what or why that might be. I happen to think this is all about bruised neocon egos over Syria, while others think this is just military industrial business being waged in typical fashion.&nbsp; But it really doesn&rsquo;t matter what the explanation is; at this point we have to accept that things are at a dangerous point and do our best to respond appropriately.</p> <p>The consequences of a war between Russia and the US/NATO could range from a very minor skirmish fought over some relatively meaningless items of trade, to an attack on financial markets, all the way to an all-out nuclear exchange.</p> <p>The question becomes, what, if anything, can we do to prepare?</p> <p>Lots as it turns out.</p> <p>No matter where you live, even if you are close to Ukraine and face the prospect of being near a front line that might develop in the future, there is lots that you can and <em>should</em> do.&nbsp; Luckily, most of the preparations are similar to those you should be undertaking anyways, war worries or not, so they won&rsquo;t cost you anything extra in terms of time or money.</p> <p>What you end up doing depends on which sort of war you consider most likely, where you happen to live, and your means. &nbsp;So let&rsquo;s consider the range of possibilities here...</p> <p><a href="http://www.peakprosperity.com/insider/99010/how-prepare-war" target="_blank">read more</a></p> http://www.peakprosperity.com/insider/99010/how-prepare-war#comments Insider NATO Russia war http://www.peakprosperity.com/crss/node/99010 Fri, 17 Jun 2016 21:16:29 +0000 cmartenson 99010 at http://www.peakprosperity.com The Approaching Moment Of Market Capitulation http://www.peakprosperity.com/insider/98958/approaching-moment-market-capitulation ]]><p>Today, on Wednesday June&nbsp;15<sup>th</sup>, the Fed made its latest &#39;non-decision&#39; and did not raise interest rates. The stock market first rose but then tumbled, likely indicating that the Fed&#39;s magic is all used up. As we all know, that&rsquo;s about the only thing that&rsquo;s been keeping the stock market levitated of late.</p> <p>I&rsquo;m on record as saying that not only would the Fed not raise rates this meeting, but that their next move, when it arrives, will be to lower rates; not raise them.</p> <p>Got that? Down; not up.</p> <p><a href="http://www.peakprosperity.com/insider/98958/approaching-moment-market-capitulation" target="_blank">read more</a></p> http://www.peakprosperity.com/insider/98958/approaching-moment-market-capitulation#comments Insider Fed Federal Reserve interest rates http://www.peakprosperity.com/crss/node/98958 Thu, 16 Jun 2016 01:42:10 +0000 cmartenson 98958 at http://www.peakprosperity.com Will Cryptocurrencies Soar as the Global Economy Falters? http://www.peakprosperity.com/insider/98832/will-cryptocurrencies-soar-global-economy-falters ]]><h1><strong>Executive Summary</strong></h1> <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">How will increasing capital controls around the world affect demand for cryptocurrencies?</li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">The big banks and corporations are embracing the blockchain. Will that make it harder to ban cryptocurrencies?</li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">With far less than 1% of the population holding cryptocurrencies, how large is the remaining updside?</li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">What the future may hold for bitcoin and its digital brethren</li> </ul> <blockquote><p><em>If you have not yet read <a href="http://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/98830/everymans-guide-understanding-cryptocurrencies" target="_blank">An Everyman&#39;s Guide To Understanding Cryptocurrencies,</a> available free to all readers, please <a href="http://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/98830/everymans-guide-understanding-cryptocurrencies" target="_blank"><strong>click here</strong></a> to read it first.</em></p> </blockquote> <p>In <a href="http://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/98830/everymans-guide-understanding-cryptocurrencies" target="_blank">Part 1</a>, we sketched a brief overview of cryptocurrencies and their potential role as a means of transferring and thus preserving capital from depreciating currencies in destabilized economies to more secure currencies/assets elsewhere in the world.</p> <h2>The Rise of Capital Controls Fuels the Use of Cryptocurrencies</h2> <p>As governments actively devalue their currencies (thereby making everyone using the currency poorer), their citizenry with financial capital are forced to seek ways to move their at-risk wealth into other currencies or assets.</p> <p>China is a prime example of this trend. As the U.S. dollar has soared 20+%, China&rsquo;s currency has strengthened along with the USD due to the yuan being pegged to the USD. In response, China must devalue its currency to maintain the global competitiveness of its export sector.</p> <p>Faced with a massive loss of purchasing power, China&rsquo;s wealthy class has moved their wealth and their families out of China. This flood of capital has pushed up housing prices in favored markets such as Vancouver B.C. and west coast cities in the U.S.</p> <p>The sums being transferred abroad are non-trivial. Estimates range into the trillions of dollars. Many observers see the rise of capital controls as...</p> <p><a href="http://www.peakprosperity.com/insider/98832/will-cryptocurrencies-soar-global-economy-falters" target="_blank">read more</a></p> http://www.peakprosperity.com/insider/98832/will-cryptocurrencies-soar-global-economy-falters#comments Insider Bitcoin cryptocurrency currency money http://www.peakprosperity.com/crss/node/98832 Fri, 10 Jun 2016 21:50:48 +0000 charleshughsmith 98832 at http://www.peakprosperity.com Off The Cuff: It's Getting So Bad They Have To Lie http://www.peakprosperity.com/insider/98833/cuff-its-getting-so-bad-lie ]]><p>In this week&#39;s Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Mish&nbsp;Shedlock&nbsp;discuss:</p> <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">The B.S. Spewed By The&nbsp;BLS <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">The birth-death model outputs have become a huge joke</li> </ul> </li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">It&#39;s Getting So Bad They Have To Lie <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">We&#39;re getting more fake stats to try to hide reality</li> </ul> </li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Dirty Politics <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">From the US primaries to the&nbsp;Brexit, dirty tricks are the norm</li> </ul> </li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Crony Corporatism <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">How the government is enabling companies to gouge consumers</li> </ul> </li> </ul> <blockquote><p><em>&quot;When it becomes serious, you have to lie&quot;</em></p> <p>~ Jean Claude Juncker, former head of the EU</p> </blockquote> <p>Statistics that can not possibly be believed by anyone looking at the actual evidence. Election results that in no way match the exit polls. Yet, somehow, the outcomes tend to overwhelmingly favor those on the side of maintaining the status quo.</p> <p>We are at the point in this global journey where it&#39;s getting harder and harder for those in power to hide the weakness, injustice and rot within the system. So, like Juncker, they&#39;re resorting to more and more lies, more deception, more backroom swindling to maintain the facade that everything is working fine.</p> <p>In this week&#39;s Off The Cuff, Chris and Mish use recent economic statistics and the elections in the US and the EU to show just how desperate the lies are becoming. Which is an important sign that we&#39;re getting close to the point when..</p> <p style="line-height: 19.5px;line-height: 19.5px;"><a href="https://s3.amazonaws.com/cm-us-standard/audio/off-the-cuff-230-sample.mp3" target="_blank">Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast</a> or <a href="http://www.peakprosperity.com/enroll" target="_blank">Enroll</a> today to access the full audio and other premium content today.</p> <p><a href="http://www.peakprosperity.com/insider/98833/cuff-its-getting-so-bad-lie" target="_blank">read more</a></p> http://www.peakprosperity.com/insider/98833/cuff-its-getting-so-bad-lie#comments Insider elections Mish Shedlock Off The Cuff http://www.peakprosperity.com/crss/node/98833 Fri, 10 Jun 2016 00:23:28 +0000 Adam Taggart 98833 at http://www.peakprosperity.com Off The Cuff: Rolling Over http://www.peakprosperity.com/insider/98673/cuff-rolling-over ]]><ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Rolling Over <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Auto and trophy homes sales are softening</li> </ul> </li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">BS From The&nbsp;BLS <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Its statistics look increasingly falsified</li> </ul> </li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Rigged Elections, Rigged Markets <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">We&#39;re living with both</li> </ul> </li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">It&#39;s All About The Debt <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">And the system can&#39;t take too much more of it</li> </ul> </li> </ul> <p>This week Chris and John note with interest the growing number of signs across the corporate landscape that the economy is indeed rolling over. Don&#39;t expect to see this supported by the stats issued by government agencies like the&nbsp;BLS, though -- their output is becoming blatantly bastardized with phony &#39;adjustments&#39;, all made to give the impression everything is still rosy.</p> <p>And while the delusions will continue as long as they can be stretched out by the authorities, Chris and John both expect reality to start intervening shortly -- especially as it relates to the massive debt bubble that has built up.</p> <p style="line-height: 19.5px;line-height: 19.5px;"><a href="https://s3.amazonaws.com/cm-us-standard/audio/off-the-cuff-229-sample.mp3" target="_blank">Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast</a> or <a href="http://www.peakprosperity.com/enroll" target="_blank">Enroll</a> today to access the full audio and other premium content today.</p> <p><a href="http://www.peakprosperity.com/insider/98673/cuff-rolling-over" target="_blank">read more</a></p> http://www.peakprosperity.com/insider/98673/cuff-rolling-over#comments Insider cuff John Rubino http://www.peakprosperity.com/crss/node/98673 Fri, 03 Jun 2016 00:31:58 +0000 Adam Taggart 98673 at http://www.peakprosperity.com Why The Fed’s Efforts Will End Badly http://www.peakprosperity.com/insider/98651/why-fed%E2%80%99s-efforts-will-end-badly ]]><p>It&rsquo;s no secret that I&#39;ve taken the&nbsp;contrarian&nbsp;position for seven long (and frequently&nbsp;frustrating) years.</p> <p>Look, we&rsquo;ve been down this road before, and the sheer stupidity of our current situation is that we&rsquo;ve been down it recently enough to know better. &nbsp;It worked out poorly for us in 2000, again in 2008, and will soon enough again. That&#39;s why I&#39;m currently short the US stock market and plan to increase that short position as time goes on.</p> <p>I&#39;m quite familiar with, and even sympathetic to, the idea that the central banks will not...</p> <p><a href="http://www.peakprosperity.com/insider/98651/why-fed%E2%80%99s-efforts-will-end-badly" target="_blank">read more</a></p> http://www.peakprosperity.com/insider/98651/why-fed%E2%80%99s-efforts-will-end-badly#comments Insider CalPERS Fed Federal Reserve growth money pensions http://www.peakprosperity.com/crss/node/98651 Wed, 01 Jun 2016 18:26:07 +0000 cmartenson 98651 at http://www.peakprosperity.com Off The Cuff: The End Of Privilege? http://www.peakprosperity.com/insider/98549/cuff-end-privilege ]]><p>In this week&#39;s Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Charles Hugh Smith discuss:</p> <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Manipulating The Market To A New All-Time High <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">The case why we may see that soon</li> </ul> </li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Falling Corporate Profits <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Why a new high, if it happens, won&#39;t last for long</li> </ul> </li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">The Pension Time Bomb <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Why all pension funds are dead men walking</li> </ul> </li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">The End Of The Protected Classes <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Soon, we will all be in the same boat</li> </ul> </li> </ul> <p style="line-height: 19.5px;line-height: 19.5px;"><a href="https://s3.amazonaws.com/cm-us-standard/audio/off-the-cuff-228-sample.mp3" target="_blank">Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast</a> or <a href="http://www.peakprosperity.com/enroll" target="_blank">Enroll</a> today to access the full audio and other premium content today.</p> <p><a href="http://www.peakprosperity.com/insider/98549/cuff-end-privilege" target="_blank">read more</a></p> http://www.peakprosperity.com/insider/98549/cuff-end-privilege#comments Insider Charles Hugh Smith cuff privilege http://www.peakprosperity.com/crss/node/98549 Sat, 28 May 2016 00:45:33 +0000 Adam Taggart 98549 at http://www.peakprosperity.com