Insider en About that Shale Oil 'Miracle'… ]]><p>It&#39;s been said that humans are rational<u><em>izing</em></u>&nbsp;--&nbsp;not &#39;rational&#39; -- animals. The deep truth in that statement is that we humans have strongly-held beliefs that color the information we take in an accept. We&#39;re often guilty of recognizing only the data that supports those beliefs while rejecting the rest.</p> <p>For example, today most people place a great deal of faith in the potential for technology to fix whatever predicaments society may face in the future. And they support that view with cherry-picked data, while conveniently overlooking evidence suggesting technology is instead a sword with&nbsp;<em>two</em>&nbsp;edges.</p> <p><a href="" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Insider energy oil oil price petroleum propaganda shale shale oil Wall Street Journal WSJ Tue, 28 Oct 2014 12:16:27 +0000 cmartenson 88437 at The Hard Facts About Shale Oil ]]><h1>Executive Summary</h1> <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Why prices under $100 per barrel just aren&#39;t cash flow positive for shale oil producers</li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">VIDEO: all you need to know about the shale oil industry</li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Why the Boom/Bust cycle is swinging to &#39;Bust&#39; for shale companies</li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Why a prolonged &#39;Bust&#39; in oil prices will create massive economic&nbsp;shockwaves</li> </ul> <blockquote><p><em>If you have not yet read&nbsp;<a href="" target="_blank">Part 1: About That Shale &#39;Miracle&#39;... </a>available free to all readers, please <a href="" target="_blank"><strong>click here</strong></a> to read it first.</em></p> </blockquote> <h2>The Shale Reality</h2> <p>Now, let me build on the case that not only are shale companies not profitable at $50 per barrel oil, but they are often not profitable at prices nearly 100% higher than <em>that</em>.</p> <p>I&rsquo;m not about to make the case that all shale operators are unprofitable or about to go bust on the plays, but I am going to make the case that any sweeping statements like &ldquo;technology will bring us Shale 2.0&rdquo; are utterly adrift from the evidence at our disposal.</p> <p>Let&rsquo;s go back to September 2014, before any oil price weakness had crept into the picture.&nbsp; At that point in time, according the WSJ author, the shale operators should have been swimming in cash.</p> <p>Well, that&rsquo;s just not the case. And some of them were losing their shirts:</p> <blockquote><p><a href="" target="_blank">Sumitomo&rsquo;s US shale oil foray turns sour</a></p> <p> Sept 29, 2014</p> <p>Sumitomo Corp&nbsp;of Japan has drawn a line under its <strong>disastrous two-year foray into shale oil</strong> in the US, with writedowns connected to the project almost completely erasing its full-year earnings.</p> <p>On Monday, Sumitomo, the fourth biggest of Japan&rsquo;s trading companies by market capitalisation, said that <strong>an&nbsp;impairment loss&nbsp;of Y170bn ($1.6bn)</strong> on a &ldquo;tight oil&rdquo; project in west Texas would form the bulk of Y240bn of charges for the fiscal year to March 2015.</p> <p>(<a href="" target="_blank">Source</a>)</p> </blockquote> <p>Hmmmm. I guess Sumitomo just failed to use enough smart technology or something, because otherwise how is it possible to lose $1.6 billion at a time when oil was solidly priced in the $100 range?</p> <p>Sarcasm aside, the truth is that it&rsquo;s all too easy to lose money in the shale plays, something I believe is already completely indicated by the negative free cash flows of the industry.&nbsp;</p> <p>In fact, that negative free cash flow evidence tells me that...</p> <p><a href="" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Insider energy oil price peak cheap oil petroleum shale oil Tue, 28 Oct 2014 12:15:41 +0000 cmartenson 88439 at Off the Cuff: The War On Savers ]]><p>In this week&#39;s&nbsp;<em>Off the Cuff&nbsp;</em>podcast, Chris and John&nbsp;Rubino&nbsp;discuss:</p> <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">The State of Silver <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Notes from this year&#39;s Silver Summit</li> </ul> </li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">The War On Savers <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Further exploration of the Fed&#39;s &#39;financial repression&#39;</li> </ul> </li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">The Inevitable Market Crash <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">More predictable than ever</li> </ul> </li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">The Broken American Dream <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Out of the reach for most now</li> </ul> </li> </ul> <p><a href="" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Insider central banks Fed Federal Reserve financial repression John Rubino money Off The Cuff QE silver Sun, 26 Oct 2014 18:58:57 +0000 Adam Taggart 88401 at The Case For Owning Physical Gold Now ]]><h1>Executive Summary</h1> <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Why China &amp; Russia are placing the highest priority on increasing their gold reserves</li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">The Asian SCO&#39;s agenda for re-defining trans-Asian money</li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">The looming crisis in paper currencies</li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">The 6 key reasons to amass paper gold today</li> </ul> <blockquote><p><em>If you have not yet read&nbsp;<a href="" target="_blank">Part 1: Why Gold Is Undervalued </a>available free to all readers, please <a href="" target="_blank"><strong>click here</strong></a> to read it first.</em></p> </blockquote> <p>Part 1 summarized gold&rsquo;s technical position, the market position, made a value judgement against fiat dollars, described and quantified the paper market, and noted the long-term shifts of bullion into Asia. There are three big subjects left to deal with: the dynamics at the hear of the West-to-East flow of physical bullion, the scope for an accelerated deterioration in the purchasing-power of paper currencies, and the financial cold war between the advanced western economies and the Asian Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO.</p> <h2>Understanding The Flow Of Gold Into China &amp; Russia</h2> <h3><em><strong>China</strong></em></h3> <p>China&rsquo;s appetite for gold has only become obvious in recent years. In reality, we do not know how much gold China has imported. We only know that for whatever reason she appears to be importing significantly larger quantities than publicly admitted. It is worth bearing in mind that this started long before the Shanghai Gold Exchange was established in 2002; the original regulations delegated total control of gold and silver to the Peoples Bank (the central bank &ndash; PBOC) in June 1983. Given at that time the west was selling gold down to the $250 level, China has most probably been secretly stockpiling gold for the last thirty years.</p> <p>The 1983 regulations appear to have been introduced to take advantage of freely-available supply. Between 1983 and 2002 there was significant leasing activity by European and other central banks as well as outright sales in addition to mine output. Furthermore, the bear market from 1980-2000 led to considerable divestment of privately owned gold vaulted in Switzerland. The following table summarizes the estimated effect.</p> <p class="rtecenter"><img alt="" src="" /></p> <p>Approximately half the above-ground stocks in 2002 appears to have changed hands since 1983. The principal buyers were the Middle East until the mid-1990s and India after the Gold Control Act was rescinded. No one has suspected China of acquiring meaningful quantities of gold during this period, but the timing of the 1983 regulations suggests otherwise. India&rsquo;s demand between 1990 and 2002 was only 5,426 tonnes, with perhaps 2,000 tonnes smuggled in the seven years previously, leaving 68,424 tonnes unaccounted for. And while Middle Eastern oil exporters were certainly buying in quantity it is unlikely they would have taken more than 35,000-40,000 tonnes, which leaves 28,000-33,000 tonnes unaccounted for. Conversion of bullion into jewellery for the European and North American markets could have absorbed 5,000 tonnes at most, but equally there were other sources of supply such as Russia, which was forced to sell all her gold (507 tonnes) during the financial crisis in 1998, and potentially some net selling as a result of the Tiger economies&rsquo; crisis at about the same time.</p> <p>There is only one logical conclusion: China passed regulations in 1983 to acquire gold bullion. This being the case, before 2002 she could easily have secretly acquired over 20,000 tonnes. And this explains why she was then happy to let her own citizens in on the act...</p> <p><a href="" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Insider Alasdair Macleod gold Wed, 22 Oct 2014 16:30:04 +0000 Alasdair Macleod 88269 at Off the Cuff: Market Mayhem ]]><p>In this week&#39;s&nbsp;<em>Off the Cuff&nbsp;</em>podcast, Chris and&nbsp;Alasdair&nbsp;MacLeod&nbsp;discuss:</p> <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">The Market Meltdown <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">What the heck just happened?</li> </ul> </li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">The Next Round of Bailouts <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">If you hate the problem, wait till you see the solutions</li> </ul> </li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Gold <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Ready for a return to the limelight?</li> </ul> </li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Ebola <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Is the media selling us too much fear?</li> </ul> </li> </ul> <p><a href="" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Insider Alasdair Macleod bond market bonds correction crash EU Euro Europe gold Off The Cuff oil oil price S&P 500 saudi arabia stock market stocks Fri, 17 Oct 2014 01:12:45 +0000 Adam Taggart 88129 at Prudent Precautions To Take Now ]]><h1>Executive Summary</h1> <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Who is at risk of contracting ebola?</li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">What are the odds of the current string becoming more virulent?</li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">The worrisome responses governments are considering</li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Should a pandemic occur, here&#39;s what you need to survive it</li> </ul> <blockquote><p><em>If you have not yet read&nbsp;<a href="" target="_blank">Part 1: Ebola! </a>available free to all readers, please <a href="" target="_blank"><strong>click here</strong></a> to read it first.</em></p> </blockquote> <h2 style="line-height: 25.2999992370605px;">Those At Greatest Risk</h2> <p>Those at greatest risk of catching Ebola have close and prolonged contact with Ebola victims. Caregivers seem particularly at risk probably because of their proximity (closeness) and the length of time they are in contact.</p> <p>One measure of how much we need to fear a particular virus is how effective it is in crossing hosts. Some viruses are really incredible at it, such as measles which infects an average of 18 other people from each sick person.</p> <p>The chart below puts Ebola at the very low end of infectivity:</p> <p class="rtecenter"><img alt="" height="293" src="" width="622" /></p> <p class="rtecenter">(<a href="" target="_blank">Source</a>)</p> <p>There are a host of complicating factors at work in determining just how infective a virus is, and one of those factors is whether or not you can look at the person while they are in the transmissive phase and see that they are sick. If you can, you may avoid them or take extra precautions.</p> <p>Again, the Ebola victims are in obviously bad shape by the time they are in the infective stage.</p> <p>However, I think we are going to have to nudge Ebola over to the right a bit on that above chart because it now seems probable that the mode of infection for this current strain is a whole lot easier than initially thought.</p> <p>The CDC still claims that the&nbsp;<em>only</em>&nbsp;way to catch Ebola is by direct contact with fluids from an infected person.</p> <p>However, it&#39;s been known since 2012 that direct contact is not necessary as this study rather conclusively proved that... <em>[Sign In/Enroll to read the full article]</em></p> <p><a href="" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Insider ebola face mask respirator Wed, 15 Oct 2014 13:34:59 +0000 cmartenson 88061 at The Market Crumbles ]]><blockquote> <p>~ Is a market crash possible here?</p> </blockquote> <p>For so many years the stock markets has done just one thing:&nbsp;<em>Go up.</em>&nbsp; And then up some more; until everyone &quot;knew&quot; that the stock market could never go down again, and that the Fed would ride to the rescue if it ever started to go down.</p> <p>Well, for better or worse, the Fed is now committed to ending&nbsp;QEternity&nbsp;here in October 2014. A decision they cannot easily undo.</p> <p>And various markets around the globe are in trouble.</p> <p><a href="" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Insider Chris Martenson Fed Federal Reserve Insider Markets QE stocks Tue, 14 Oct 2014 03:33:38 +0000 cmartenson 88025 at Off the Cuff: Volatility With A Vengeance ]]><p>In this week&#39;s&nbsp;<em>Off the Cuff&nbsp;</em>podcast, Chris and Charles Hugh Smith discuss:</p> <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">What Is Market Volatility Telling Us? <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Sign of a top, or preparing for another leg up?</li> </ul> </li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Have Capital Flows Changed the Story? <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Is too much money entering the US for the markets to correct?</li> </ul> </li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Where Is Gold Heading From Here? <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Long-awaited bullish signals are appearing</li> </ul> </li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Society&#39;s Happiness Drought <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Why do we have so much, yet feel so unsatisfied?</li> </ul> </li> </ul> <p><a href="" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Insider Charles Hugh Smith gold Markets Media precious metals silver stocks volatility Thu, 09 Oct 2014 17:23:12 +0000 Adam Taggart 87941 at Desperately Seeking Substance ]]><h1>Executive Summary</h1> <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">As we increasingly revere the superficial, we increase our subconscious craving for substance</li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">What the success of Breaking Bad tells us about our confidence in meritocracy</li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">The hopelessness of achieving the sold &quot;American Dream&quot; has created a cultural social depression</li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Healthy, authentic social mores will be found in our own making of them, not the idiot box</li> </ul> <blockquote><p><em>If you have not yet read <a href="" target="_blank">The Schizophrenia Tormenting Our Society &amp; Economy </a></em><em>available free to all readers, please <a href="" target="_blank"><strong>click here</strong></a> to read it first.</em></p> </blockquote> <p>In <a href="" target="_blank">Part 1</a>, we set the stage for an analysis of American TV as a reflection of the cultural schizophrenia created by a widening gap between the few at the top of the celebrity/wealth pyramid and everyone else. TV&rsquo;s winner-take-all competitions reflect the normalization of our acceptance of a society that produces few winners and an abundance of losers, and of the partial redemption offered by temporary recognition or social-media popularity.</p> <p>On the surface, such shows reflect our culture&rsquo;s belief in merit as the arbiter of success: the &ldquo;best&rdquo; competitor wins fair and square.&nbsp; But beneath this superficial elevation of meritocracy are a variety of questions about the critical role of judges (experts) and the rewards of recognition, however fleeting: if the public spotlight is inaccessible, attracting a large number of &ldquo;likes&rdquo; for &ldquo;selfies&rdquo; photos offers a consolation form of popularity.</p> <p>That such adulation of celebrity and the gaze of others trigger the loss of an authentic self is never mentioned; asking why draws a blank, as that interpretation of celebrity simply doesn&rsquo;t exist on the cultural stage.</p> <p>Let&rsquo;s continue our exploration of TV&rsquo;s subtexts by examining the ground-breaking series, <em>Breaking Bad.</em></p> <h2>The Many Subtexts of <em>Breaking Bad</em></h2> <p>Let me start by stipulating I am no expert on the series <em>Breaking Bad</em>, or indeed, on any TV series; I am commenting not on the plots or characters per se but on the series&rsquo; subtexts.</p> <p>Many have noted the implausibility of a schoolteacher in America not having health insurance (and also not qualifying for Medicaid), not to mention the premise (that a schoolteacher starts manufacturing one of the most destructive and addictive drugs on the planet, crystal meth, to pay for his cancer treatments).</p> <p>James Howard Kunstler recently took note of...</p> <p><a href="" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Insider American Dream Breaking Bad Charles Hugh Smith culture Schizophrenia society Wed, 08 Oct 2014 01:50:17 +0000 charleshughsmith 87364 at The Global Slowdown ]]><p>I am on record as saying that the end of the US Fed money printing (a.k.a &#39;QE&#39;) is a bigger deal than the equity markets of the west and Japan have factored in.</p> <p>Further, I don&#39;t think that the ECB has sufficiently picked up the baton from the US Fed and I seriously doubt that they will be able to expand their money printing efforts much beyond that already announced due to pressure from a reluctant Germany.</p> <p><a href="" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Insider ECB Fed Federal Reserve Japan money money printing QE quantitative easing stocks Tue, 07 Oct 2014 00:46:46 +0000 cmartenson 87907 at