Insider en Off the Cuff: More Fed-Induced Froth ]]><p>In this week&#39;s&nbsp;<em>Off the Cuff&nbsp;</em>podcast, Chris and John&nbsp;Rubino&nbsp;discuss:</p> <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Janet&#39;s Joy Juice <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">The Fed speaks and markets soar</li> </ul> </li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Currency Crashes <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Venezuela &amp; Russia are showing us the risks of fiat money</li> </ul> </li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Oil&#39;s Collateral Damage <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">The 40% price drop is having real consequences</li> </ul> </li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">What The Next Crash Will Look Like <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Why past crashes may not be a good guide</li> </ul> </li> </ul> <p><a href="" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Insider John Rubino Off The Cuff Thu, 18 Dec 2014 16:58:46 +0000 Adam Taggart 89967 at Who Will Dominate This Century? ]]><h1>Executive Summary</h1> <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">The key requirements for being a word power</li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Is the &quot;superpower&quot; model sustainable in today&#39;s age?</li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">The key ability to leverage resources</li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Which country(ies) is most likely to dominate in this century?</li> </ul> <blockquote><p><em>If you have not yet read <a href="" target="_blank">Who Will Be Tomorrow&#39;s Superpower?</a> available free to all readers, please <a href="" target="_blank"><strong>click here</strong></a> to read it first.</em></p> </blockquote> <p>In <a href="" target="_blank">Part 1</a>, we surveyed the <em>nature of power </em>to explore the concept of superpowers.&nbsp; In this Part 2, we look at <em>power as the ability to solve problems</em>.</p> <h2>What Are the Available Resources?</h2> <p>Solving problems in the real world is not an abstract project, though abstract concepts may undergird the solutions. In the real world, we have to use whatever resources are available, with an eye on cost, scale and sustainability.</p> <p>Alternative energy offers a useful example. Almost everyone agrees that alternatives to fossil fuels would be beneficial, but what is generally overlooked is the tiny scale of alternatives in the current scheme of things.&nbsp; Depending on what&rsquo;s being included as alternative (hydropower, etc.), alternative energy sources currently comprise a few percentage points of total energy consumption.</p> <p>To scale alternatives up to even 50% of current consumption will require not just a monumental amount of capital investment; it also requires the invention and manufacture of new systems of energy storage on an equally vast scale.</p> <p>As has been noted many times, this capital investment includes an extended period of fossil fuels consumption, as we need huge amounts of energy to construct alternative sources and storage systems. Some have characterized this as building an aircraft in the air while keeping your current aircraft aloft.</p> <p>As Peak Prosperity members know well, capital has a variety of forms, all of which work together: financial, intellectual, social, human, cultural and symbolic. All these forms of capital must be...</p> <p><a href="" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Insider Backup Power Charles Hugh Smith geopolitics leverage Power Resources superpower Wed, 17 Dec 2014 15:14:52 +0000 charleshughsmith 89839 at Deflation Is Still Winning! ]]><p>As we&#39;ve written on and warned about before,&nbsp;<a href="" target="_blank">deflation is winning.</a>&nbsp; We&#39;re starting to see very serious cracks in the&nbsp;fa&ccedil;ade, beginning with oil, then various peripheral currencies -- especially from emerging market oil exporters -- and now equities.</p> <p><a href="" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Insider banks bubble Chris Martenson crisis deflation equities oil Russia Stock Tue, 16 Dec 2014 01:20:38 +0000 cmartenson 89843 at Oil Armageddon Arrives ]]><p>Yesterday,&nbsp;WTIC&nbsp;-- that&#39;s US oil -- just broke under $60 a barrel on very heavy volume. Canada heavy crude is at $42 a barrel, and Brent is at $61.73.</p> <p>All of these are multi-year lows not seen since the great oil crash of 2008 that preceded the even greater financial crash that came just a few months later.</p> <p><a href="" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Insider Chris Martenson Insider oil Fri, 12 Dec 2014 21:08:29 +0000 cmartenson 89750 at Off the Cuff: The Buck Stops Nowhere ]]><p>In this week&#39;s&nbsp;<em>Off the Cuff&nbsp;</em>podcast, Chris and Mish&nbsp;Shedlock&nbsp;discuss:</p> <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Zig-Zag&nbsp;Markets <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">More evidence the long term trend is reversing</li> </ul> </li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">When Will Oil Find A Floor? <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">And where will the collateral damage of the current drop be most felt?</li> </ul> </li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">US Admits To Torture <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Are we going to hold anyone accountable?</li> </ul> </li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Gold Shows A Slight Glitter Again <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Dare we begin to hope?</li> </ul> </li> </ul> <p><a href="" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Insider bonds credit currency gold Mish Shedlock Off The Cuff oil stock market torture Thu, 11 Dec 2014 19:27:03 +0000 Adam Taggart 89704 at What Deflation Means For Investors ]]><h1>Executive Summary</h1> <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">The 3 reasons why deflation will continue to haunt the global economy</li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">The importance of cash flows in a deflationary environment</li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Understanding the deflationary reasons behind the recent drop in oil prices and the material implications this will have going forward</li> </ul> <blockquote><p><em>If you have not yet read <a href="" target="_blank">Part 1: Deflation Is Winning</a> available free to all readers, please <a href="" target="_blank"><strong>click here</strong></a> to read it first.</em></p> </blockquote> <p>So an very important question remains despite the trillions in new currency printed around the world in the past few years: <em>Why are deflationary pressures still present?</em></p> <ol> <li><strong>The debt overhang from the prior cycle has not vanished by a long shot. </strong>In fact today there is significantly more debt outstanding globally than was the case at the highs of 2007, primarily driven by global government borrowings.&nbsp; The following chart is total US credit market debt relative to GDP.&nbsp; You can see that very little has been reconciled since the peak.&nbsp; By the way,</li> </ol> <p class="rtecenter"><img alt="" src="" /></p> <p>Data Source:&nbsp; US Federal Reserve&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</p> <p>Additional global debt assumption means additional interest cost burdens, even under an environment of interest rate suppression.&nbsp; And that means...</p> <p><a href="" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Insider Brian Pretti central banks deflation inflation taxes Wed, 10 Dec 2014 15:21:04 +0000 Brian Pretti 89525 at The Oil Shock Has Arrived ]]><p>The absolutely stunning drop in oil prices, which hit a new recent low, is really important to both track and understand.</p> <p>There are two issues here, one near term and one long.</p> <p><a href="" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Insider oil Price shock Tue, 09 Dec 2014 02:59:57 +0000 cmartenson 89566 at Off the Cuff: Bankers On Edge ]]><p style="font-size: 12.7272720336914px;">In this week&#39;s&nbsp;<em>Off the Cuff&nbsp;</em>podcast, Chris and Charles Hugh Smith discuss:</p> <ul style="font-size: 12.7272720336914px;"> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Gold is being driven by speculators in lock-step with the yen</li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">So is the S&amp;P 500</li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Why labor pricing power is broken and will stay that way</li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">The shale oil&nbsp;Ponzi&nbsp;scheme breaks...and defaults are sure to follow</li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">China&#39;s economic miracle is about to become a mirage</li> </ul> <blockquote><p style="font-size: 12.7272720336914px;"><strong>Charles:&nbsp;</strong>And it certainly seems that oil is being used as a weapon. But you know, let&#39;s also I would like your view on the idea that the world economy is going into recession. It seems sort of obvious to me. Europe is already either in recession or so stagnant that it is the same as recession. The US is stumbling along with fake growth in terms of households. And then China is rolling over. Japan is going down the sinkhole.</p> <p style="font-size: 12.7272720336914px;">S<span style="font-size: 13px;">o what will that do to oil if demand really craters like we get another 2008 situation where the financing dries up and people stop borrowing because they are afraid and they stop spending and the whole thing that causes recession. I think that is going to have a potentially huge impact on oil and it would hurt everybody that is producing oil the Saudis included. They may be talking bravely, but I believe that their production costs have risen considerably because they have had to run hundreds of miles of pipe and they are injecting carbon dioxide and sea water and stuff into their wells to keep their production up.</span></p> <p style="font-size: 12.7272720336914px;"><strong>Chris&nbsp;Martenson:&nbsp;</strong>The old days of Saudi Arabia sticking a straw in the ground and pulling oil out at a dollar or two a barrel those are long gone because if you have ever seen they have a rack of four pipes that stretch, I forget, 100 miles or something going from the ocean to one of their fields. And each one of those pipes is about the diameter of a large room. They are like 14 feet in diameter they are extraordinarily huge. There is four of them and they are just pumping seawater and they are injecting that down into the field at a variety of points. So yea, that&#39;s expensive. And worse the rate of inflation in the mining business has been roughly around 10% for the last 10 years. That means that your costs are going to completely double every seven years when you&#39;ve got 10% inflation. So that is what the mining industry and particularly the petroleum has been putting up with.</p> </blockquote> <p><a href="" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Insider Charles Hugh Smith China Off The Cuff oil Russia Fri, 05 Dec 2014 00:22:22 +0000 Adam Taggart 89420 at The Central Banks Have Lost ]]><h1 style="font-size: 23.6363639831543px;">Executive Summary</h1> <ul style="font-size: 12.7272720336914px;"> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">What is &#39;deflation?&#39;</li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Why do central&nbsp;banks fear it so much?</li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">What falling prices&nbsp;<em>really&nbsp;</em>mean.</li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Commodities are telling us that a global slowdown is already here.</li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">China&#39;s economic miracle is over.</li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">What happens next (please keep your preparations on track!)</li> </ul> <blockquote style="font-size: 12.7272720336914px;"><p><em>If you have not yet read&nbsp;<a href="" target="_blank">Oil And The Global Slowdown</a>&nbsp;available free to all readers, please&nbsp;<a href="" target="_blank"><strong>click here</strong></a>&nbsp;to read it first.</em></p> </blockquote> <p style="font-size: 12.7272720336914px;">The title of this part says it all. So let&#39;s begin with an important definition. What is &#39;deflation&#39;?</p> <p style="font-size: 12.7272720336914px;">To hear the media and central banks tell it, it is something fearful and that must be avoided at all costs. Confusingly they then point to falling prices as evidence of the horror of which they speak.</p> <p style="font-size: 12.7272720336914px;">The only problem is that you and I like falling prices. If my health insurance cost 10% less next year I&rsquo;d be thrilled. But the central banks would be horrified.</p> <p style="font-size: 12.7272720336914px;">The difference between these two positions lies in the definition of deflation. While the media always blindly regurgitates the central bank line that falling prices are an indication of deflation they really shouldn&#39;t.</p> <p><a href="" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Insider central banks China deflation Thu, 04 Dec 2014 00:09:10 +0000 cmartenson 89381 at Now That's A Nice Bottom ]]><blockquote> <p> ~ Gold and silver race up off the lows</p> </blockquote> <p>The failure of the Swiss referendum to repatriate gold was somehow used as the catalyst to hammer gold, silver, oil, and copper...each of them a signature bell-weather for economic activity.</p> <p>I was ready to write this piece titled &quot;Deflation Wins!&quot;&nbsp; but that would have been the on-line equivalent of &quot;Dewey Wins!&quot;&nbsp; because just as Dewey actually lost to Truman, each of the four substances listed bounced back hard after their initial pummeling.</p> <p><a href="" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Insider bottom Chris Martenson gold Insider oil silver Tue, 02 Dec 2014 02:07:02 +0000 cmartenson 89321 at