Insider en From Deflation To Hyperinflation ]]><h1 style="font-size: 23.4px;">Executive Summary</h1> <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">China is rolling over</li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Contagion will eventually take down the core economies, including the US</li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">We are witnessing a full-blown collapse of the commodity complex</li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Deflation will win the day over the next year, but then get ready for helicopter money hyperinflation</li> </ul> <blockquote><p><em>If you have not yet read&nbsp;<a href="" target="_blank">Part 1: Deflation Warning: The Next Wave</a>&nbsp;available free to all readers, please&nbsp;<a href="" target="_blank"><strong>click here</strong></a>&nbsp;to read it first.</em></p> </blockquote> <h2 style="line-height: 25.3px;">The Chinese GDP Lie</h2> <p>Right off the top, China is not growing anywhere near the 7% it claims.&nbsp; That&rsquo;s just a politically useful lie that the Chinese tell to the world as much as they tell to themselves.</p> <p>Fortunately, hardly anyone is falling for that particular fib any longer.&nbsp; Let&rsquo;s start with the completely obvious manufacturing slump that has hit China:</p> <blockquote><p><strong>Chinese Factory&nbsp;Gauge&nbsp;Slumps to Lowest Level Since March 2009</strong></p> <p>Sept 22, 2015</p> <p><strong>A private Chinese manufacturing&nbsp;gauge&nbsp;fell to the lowest in 6 1/2 years,</strong>&nbsp;underscoring challenges facing the economy as its old growth engines splutter.</p> <p>A global sell off in riskier assets gained pace after the preliminary&nbsp;<strong>Purchasing Managers&rsquo; Index</strong>&nbsp;from&nbsp;Caixin&nbsp;Media and&nbsp;Markit&nbsp;Economics&nbsp;<strong>dropped to 47.0 in September</strong>. That missed the median estimate of 47.5 in a Bloomberg survey and fell from the final reading of&nbsp;<strong>47.3&nbsp;in the previous month</strong>. Readings have remained below 50 since March, indicating contraction.</p> <p><strong>Premier Li&nbsp;Keqiang&rsquo;s&nbsp;growth target of about 7 percent for this year is being challenged</strong>&nbsp;by a slowdown in manufacturing and exports even as services and consumption&nbsp;show resilience.</p> <p>(<a href="" target="_blank">Source</a>)</p> </blockquote> <p>The way a PMI reading works is anything over 50 indicates expansions and anything under 50 indicates contraction.&nbsp; Anybody care to explain to me how China can be sporting sub-50 readings every month since March -- that&rsquo;s five full months -- and still be claiming to be aiming for a 7% annual growth target?&nbsp; You know, because China is...</p> <p><a href="" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Insider central banks China commodities deflation hyperinflation inflation Thu, 01 Oct 2015 04:36:19 +0000 cmartenson 94628 at Why Gold Is Headed Higher & May Become Unavailable At Any Price ]]><h1>Executive Summary</h1> <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">The amount of gold in London&#39;s vaults dropped by 1/3 in the past year(!)</li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Activity at the COMEX is flashing warning signs</li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">When to worry about physical defaults</li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Simple math will win out: the West is fast running out of its bullion</li> </ul> <blockquote><p><em>If you have not yet read <a href="" target="_blank">Part 1: Buy Gold While You Still Can! </a>available free to all readers, please <a href="" target="_blank"><strong>click here</strong></a> to read it first.</em></p> </blockquote> <p>An interesting piece of detective work&nbsp;<a href="">was done by Ronan Manly at</a>&nbsp;where he noted that the&nbsp;LBMA&nbsp;reported pronounced drops in the amount of gold stored in London vaults, which includes both gold held at the Bank of England as well as non-official vaults within the&nbsp;LBMA&nbsp;system.</p> <p>To summarize his report, here&rsquo;s the amount of gold reportedly held in London:</p> <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">April 2014 &ndash; 9,000&nbsp;tonnes</li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Early 2015 &ndash; 7,500&nbsp;tonnes</li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">June 2015 &ndash; 6,250&nbsp;tonnes</li> </ul> <p>That means that 2,750&nbsp;tonnes&nbsp;left London over the past 1+ year.</p> <p>Does such a large number even make sense?</p> <p>Well, sure, if we consider that just four countries cumulatively imported (or increased reserves) by ~4,500&nbsp;tonnes&nbsp;since the beginning of 2014.</p> <p>Confirming this is the handy chart below of gold flows as compared to...</p> <p><a href="" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Insider COMEX gold HAA Fri, 25 Sep 2015 19:55:45 +0000 cmartenson 94558 at Off The Cuff: Look Out Below! ]]><p>In this week&#39;s Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Mish&nbsp;Shedlock&nbsp;discuss:</p> <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">The Periphery Is Collapsing Fast <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Emerging market currencies are falling hard vs the US dollar</li> </ul> </li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">China Is Running Off The Rails <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">We&#39;re witnessing a bust in progress</li> </ul> </li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Europe&#39;s Black Swan Has Landed <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">A migrant crisis no one saw coming this quickly</li> </ul> </li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">The US Is Sliding Back Into Recession <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">The data is bad and getting worse</li> </ul> </li> </ul> <p><a href="" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Insider China currency deflation dollar emerging markets Europe migrants Mike Shedlock Off The Cuff Thu, 24 Sep 2015 21:15:25 +0000 Adam Taggart 94541 at The War On Cash Intensifies ]]><p>The central planners are setting the stage for the next round of officially sanctioned theft and this time they mean to assure that you have no way(s) of escaping.</p> <p><em>They&rsquo;re coming for your cash.</em>&nbsp;This is a risk that Charles Hughes Smith explored for us back in June&nbsp;<a href="">in a very well-received analysis</a>.</p> <p>Once a fringe idea, this concept is now being openly discussed and debated at the highest levels publicly. Which means it is being hotly discussed behind closed doors, and likely has been for a long time.</p> <p><a href="" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Insider behavioral economics cash central banks economy Fed Federal Reserve growth money QE quantitative easing war on cash Tue, 22 Sep 2015 01:45:31 +0000 cmartenson 94489 at Off The Cuff: The Future Of The Fed ]]><p>In this week&#39;s Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and John&nbsp;Rubino&nbsp;discuss:</p> <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">The Future Of The Fed <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Further easing seems assured for 2016</li> </ul> </li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">The Worlds Central Banks Are Cornered <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">They have no good options if crisis hits</li> </ul> </li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">The Debt Time-Bomb <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">No matter what the Fed engineers, our debt will kill the economy in the end</li> </ul> </li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Politics As The Newest Black Swan <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">The populace is becoming&nbsp;unrestful</li> </ul> </li> </ul> <p><a href="" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Insider Fed John Rubino Off The Cuff Sat, 19 Sep 2015 01:18:42 +0000 Adam Taggart 94426 at When Nothing Means A Lot ]]><p>Today, Thursday September 17, 2015, the most anticipated decision in all of financial history was made.</p> <p>Or&nbsp;<em>not</em>&nbsp;made, as it turned out.</p> <p><a href="" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Insider economy Fed Federal Reserve interest rates Janet Yellen Fri, 18 Sep 2015 04:12:35 +0000 cmartenson 94441 at Off The Cuff: Follow The Money! ]]><p>In this week&#39;s Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Axel&nbsp;Merk&nbsp;discuss:</p> <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Follow The Money! <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Why watching currencies yields predictive insights</li> </ul> </li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">China&#39;s Yuan Devaluation <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">What will the implications be?</li> </ul> </li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Buckle Up! <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Volatility in currencies &amp; stocks is just getting started</li> </ul> </li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Why It&#39;s Time To Go Short <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">No matter whether the Fed raises rates or not this year</li> </ul> </li> </ul> <p><a href="" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Insider Axel Merk Off The Cuff Thu, 10 Sep 2015 21:47:40 +0000 Adam Taggart 94346 at Off The Cuff: Beware The Misbehavior Of Markets ]]><p>In this week&#39;s Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Charles Hugh Smith discuss:</p> <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Manipulated Markets <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">How the Fed uses stocks as a signaling device</li> </ul> </li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">House Of Cards <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Why the system is more vulnerable than ever</li> </ul> </li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">The Machines Are In Control <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Which works well until it doesn&#39;t</li> </ul> </li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Beware The Misbehavior Of Markets <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">They are not as predictable as we think</li> </ul> </li> </ul> <p><a href="" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Insider algos Charles Hugh Smith HFT Markets mishbehavior Off The Cuff stocks Mon, 07 Sep 2015 15:31:21 +0000 Adam Taggart 94266 at The Criticality Of Monitoring Margin Debt Closely From Here ]]><h1>Executive Summary</h1> <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Declining margin debt will signal an impending major market decline&nbsp;</li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">This signal will be even more telling for non-US countries</li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Evidence indicates we are passing the peak margin debt cycle right now</li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">There is time to act, but time is running out</li> </ul> <blockquote><p><em>If you have not yet read <a href="" target="_blank">Part 1: The Margin Debt Time-Bomb </a>available free to all readers, please <a href="" target="_blank"><strong>click here</strong></a> to read it first.</em></p> </blockquote> <p>In the meantime, monitoring trends in levels of margin debt is one of a necessary number of risk management tools.&nbsp; Meaningfully declining monthly levels of margin debt ahead will be an important red flag.&nbsp; The key is knowing it will come and being able to act unemotionally and rationally when it occurs.&nbsp; For now, in the clarity of hindsight, we have the very short term divergence in place between price (SPX) and margin debt levels as of month end July.&nbsp; Now it&rsquo;s a matter of continuing to monitor margin debt levels ahead as one of a number of important risk management tools.&nbsp;</p> <p>I think it is important to note that in the two prior market cycles, margin debt declined noticeably after the year over year change in S&amp;P 500 sales (revenues) fell into negative territory, as we are now seeing in 2015.&nbsp; As you can see from the chart below, the year over year change in S&amp;P 500 sales from 2014 to 2015 has crossed into...</p> <p><a href="" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Insider margin debt Sat, 05 Sep 2015 01:00:09 +0000 Brian Pretti 94264 at Buckle Up, The Ride Is Going To Get Wilder ]]><p>The recent stock market and financial turbulence is going to get worse -- possibly a lot worse. This will be true even in the &#39;core&#39; countries (US, Europe, Japan), while peripheral countries are suffering unusual levels of turmoil.</p> <p>It&rsquo;s nothing personal. This is simply how things were always destined to end.</p> <p><a href="" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Insider bubbles China debt Fed Federal Reserve stock market stocks volatility Tue, 01 Sep 2015 21:01:39 +0000 cmartenson 94209 at