Insider en Off the Cuff: The Shift From Paper Assets To Real Ones Is On ]]><p>In this week&#39;s&nbsp;<em>Off the Cuff&nbsp;</em>podcast, Chris and John&nbsp;Rubino&nbsp;discuss:</p> <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Mass-delusional Markets <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Investors are mistaking the destruction of our fiat system as prosperity</li> </ul> </li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">The Shift From Paper To Real Assets Is On <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">At least, among the top 1%</li> </ul> </li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Generational War <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Coming to a stagnating economy near you</li> </ul> </li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">It All Comes Back To Energy <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">And there&#39;s still no magic bullet in sight</li> </ul> </li> </ul> <p><a href="" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Insider assets economy energy John Rubino Off The Cuff stocks Fri, 21 Nov 2014 02:29:16 +0000 Adam Taggart 89034 at Keep Your Eyes On The Prize ]]><p>At the essential center of the framework of the Crash Course is the almost insultingly simple idea that endless growth on a finite planet is an impossibility.</p> <p>It is so simple it could be worked out by a clever 4 year-old and yet it must <em>not</em> be so simple because the main narrative of every economy in every corner of the globe rests on the idea of endless, infinite growth.</p> <p><a href="" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Insider Chris Martenson coal energy energy cliff growth IEA Insider LENR oil peak oil Thu, 20 Nov 2014 03:53:24 +0000 cmartenson 89009 at Special Farmland Update ]]><p>Chris recently hosted a webinar for investing in sustainable farmland. An archived footage of the webinar is provided here.</p> <p><a href="" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Insider farmland Farmland LP Tue, 18 Nov 2014 02:34:15 +0000 Adam Taggart 88933 at Off the Cuff: 2015 Will See A Return To Global Recession ]]><p>In this week&#39;s&nbsp;<em>Off the Cuff&nbsp;</em>podcast, Chris and Charles Hugh Smith discuss:</p> <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Bankers Behaving Badly <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Fraud should be expected when there&#39;s no punishment for it</li> </ul> </li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Rudderless Leadership <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">It&#39;s no wonder voters are &#39;throwing the bums out&#39;</li> </ul> </li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">The Japan Time-Bomb <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Guaranteed to blow up the global economy. But when?</li> </ul> </li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">2015: The Year Of Return To Global Recession <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Charles and Chris make the call</li> </ul> </li> </ul> <p><a href="" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Insider Charles Hugh Smith Japan Off The Cuff recession Fri, 14 Nov 2014 02:14:22 +0000 Adam Taggart 88837 at Why The Strengthening Dollar Is A Sign Of The Next Global Crisis ]]><h1>Executive Summary</h1> <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Understanding the two different ways money flows into the US dollar</li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">How currency crises elsewhere can send the dollar skyrocketing</li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Why yen, yuan and euro printing are not the same as dollar printing</li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">How these accelerating money flows are creating the next global crisis</li> </ul> <blockquote><p><em>If you have not yet read <a href="" target="_blank">The Consequences of a Strengthening US Dollar</a> available free to all readers, please <a href="" target="_blank"><strong>click here</strong></a> to read it first.</em></p> </blockquote> <p>In <a href="" target="_blank">Part 1</a>, we surveyed the key dynamic that is playing out across the globe: the problems revealed by the Global Financial Meltdown of 2008-2009 were not addressed; they were in effect shifted into the foreign exchange (FX) market. Now the risk bubble is in the FX market.</p> <p>The complexity of the feedbacks into the FX market is nothing short of mind-boggling, and rather than attempt a comprehensive survey, I&rsquo;m highlighting the dynamics that hold the greatest risks of triggering instability, not just in finance but in geopolitics, trade and commodities.</p> <h2>Two Kinds of Dollar Flows</h2> <p>Let&rsquo;s start by differentiating between the two kinds of money flows into the dollar:</p> <ol> <li>Money converted from periphery currencies into dollars to pay back loans denominated in dollars<br /> &nbsp;</li> <li>Money flowing out of periphery economies and into dollar-denominated assets such as stocks, bonds, real estate and dollar-denominated bank accounts.</li> </ol> <p>Broadly speaking, both of these capital flows are &ldquo;risk-off,&rdquo; but they have different effects.</p> <p>In the first case, money borrowed on the cheap in dollars and invested in high-yield periphery bonds earned a tidy profit as the dollar weakened. The trader picked up a double profit: the arbitrage on the interest rates (borrow at .25% and earn 4+%) and the FX profit from the rise of the periphery currency and the decline of the dollar.</p> <p>This currency-arbitrage profit reverses when the dollar starts rising, and it quickly wipes out the entire interest-rate profit as it leaps higher.</p> <p>The carry trade is &ldquo;risk-on&rdquo; because money is being borrowed to speculate in interest-rate arbitrage. Deleveraging this trade is &ldquo;risk-off&rdquo; because the only way to stem the potential losses as the dollar strengthens is to...</p> <p><a href="" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Insider Charles Hugh Smith China credit debt dollar Euro Germany Japan money risk Yen yuan Wed, 12 Nov 2014 15:21:13 +0000 charleshughsmith 88729 at Europe's Next Energy Crisis Is Now Assured ]]><p>Today, Russia inked a second blockbuster deal with China that will starve Europe for natural gas in just a few short years. It&#39;s now increasingly clear that 2018 will mark the beginning of the end for any hopes Europe had of returning to robust economic growth.</p> <p>It was by far the biggest news of the day. While it did make headlines, you might have missed it because not much was made of the affair beyond the announcement.&nbsp; The story came and went as if Russia has oodles of natural gas (NG) to send to China.</p> <p>It doesn&#39;t. And the supplies it has now contracted to send to China will be pulled from supplies that currently go to Europe.</p> <p><a href="" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Insider China energy Europe Gas Russia Tue, 11 Nov 2014 04:25:03 +0000 cmartenson 88733 at John Hussman Podcast - Part 2 ]]><p>The second part of our interview with John Hussman is available here for Peak Prosperity&#39;s enrolled members.</p> <p>If you&#39;ve not yet listened to Part 1,&nbsp;<a href="" target="_blank">click here</a>&nbsp;to do so.</p> <p>In Part 2 of the interview, John provides more specificity around his valuation methodology, and how he sees things playing out from here in the financial markets.&nbsp;</p> <p>To access Part 2 of this podcast, simply click the yellow button to enroll.</p> <p><a href="" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Insider bubbles central banks Fed Federal Reserve gold John Hussman Markets oil stocks Sat, 08 Nov 2014 21:03:55 +0000 Adam Taggart 88703 at Off the Cuff: The Importance Of Global Capital Flows ]]><p>In this week&#39;s&nbsp;<em>Off the Cuff&nbsp;</em>podcast, Chris and Brian&nbsp;Pretti&nbsp;discuss:</p> <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Japan&#39;s Halloween Massacre <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">The most glaring sign yet that the central banks are desperate</li> </ul> </li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Capital Flows Are King Right Now <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">The reason we have record-high markets despite crummy fundamentals</li> </ul> </li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Musical Chairs <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Every (market) player has fun until the music stops</li> </ul> </li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Throwing The Bums Out <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">As our lifestyles contract, we vote out the incumbents</li> </ul> </li> </ul> <p><a href="" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Insider Brian Pretti capital central banks election Japan money prices Fri, 07 Nov 2014 02:56:04 +0000 Adam Taggart 88646 at What Will Happen When Japan Breaks ]]><h1>Executive Summary</h1> <ul> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">The data that proves Japan is a ticking time bomb</li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Why the yen may still fall a lot further from here</li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">How Japan&#39;s contagion can threaten world markets (and yes, the US)</li> <li style="line-height: 19.5px;">Why the contagion is now underway, and what you should do about it</li> </ul> <blockquote><p><em>If you have not yet read <a href="" target="_blank">Central Planners Are In A State of Panic </a>available free to all readers, please <a href="" target="_blank"><strong>click here</strong></a> to read it first.</em></p> </blockquote> <h2>Japan, By The Numbers</h2> <p>I completely understand why the Japanese authorities are freaking out and taking enormous risks.&nbsp; It&#39;s because they have no good choices left.&nbsp; More fundamentally (and worse) they are in charge of a system that is destined to fail.</p> <p>Exponential money systems have to eventually fail because all paper money is just a marker for real wealth, it is not real wealth itself, and therefore ever-increasing exponential paper claims being stacked up &nbsp;against a world of real wealth that is growing much less quickly (and someday reversing entirely) is a mathematical formula for a monetary accident.</p> <p>But it&#39;s quite bizarre that Japan, of all places, cannot see through to this math predicament given their very publicly and often discussed demographic decline.</p> <p>Having peaked at 128 million in 2005, Japan now has 127 million inhabitants and is on its way to 90 million by 2050, and 45 million by ~2100.</p> <p class="rtecenter"><img alt="" src="" /></p> <p class="rtecenter">(<a href="" target="_blank">Source</a>)</p> <p>This means that..</p> <p><a href="" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Insider black swan contagion debt Japan money Yen Thu, 06 Nov 2014 13:36:18 +0000 cmartenson 88618 at The Turn May Be At Hand ]]><p>What this world desperately needs is a long term plan to deal with its shrinking net-energy-per-capita ratio. This metric will someday turn into a complete sinking negative that will, in turn, utterly ruin all of our capital markets.</p> <p><a href="" target="_blank">read more</a></p> Insider Cars Fed Federal Reserve gold growth Insider oil silver stock markets SUVs trucks Tue, 04 Nov 2014 04:35:51 +0000 cmartenson 88574 at