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The Deflationary Wave Builds

2016 is already off to a worrisome start
Tuesday, January 5, 2016, 1:32 AM

Well, the New Year got off to a rocky start in the world markets.  Why it has taken so long for the equity markets to react to an obvious weakening global economic environment is beyond us.  We write that knowing that it may take even longer still for reality to catch up to the world’s financial markets.

Part of the reason for the delay, of course, is that the world’s central banks have been fighting off reality with a coordinated series of actions designed to prop up financial markets for as long as possible. » Read more

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Off The Cuff: An Economy Of Bureaucracy

It what we now have. But it can't last much longer.
Saturday, January 2, 2016, 4:41 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Charles Hugh Smith discuss:

  • Why We're Headed For A Systemic Reset
    • Too much bloat
  • An Economy Of Bureaucracy
    • No bureaucracy ever reduced itself by choice
  • Why We Need To Starve The System
    • Opt out with our energy and our dollars
  • Why We'll Need To Do More With Less
    • Much of "business as usual" won't be around for much longer
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Putting Our Health Into Our Own Hands

The (very doable) basics of prevention
Tuesday, December 29, 2015, 2:34 PM

Executive Summary

  • The obesity epidemic
  • Failings of the national healthcare system
  • New models for obtaining care
  • The basics of prevention

If you have not yet read The Rising Threats To Our Health, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part 1, we reviewed some of the major global health issues that will challenge households, economies and nation-states around the world as the global population ages and lifestyle/pollution/age-related chronic diseases affect hundreds of millions of people.

In Part 2, we look at issues that are specific to the U.S. and other developed economies, and consider the impacts of these issues on us as individuals: the bottom line is prevention is in our court.

Overweight/Obesity

While many of the problems listed in Part 1 are found mostly in developing economies (severe pollution, etc.), many others are pressing issues in both developing and developed economies (smoking, chronic lifestyle disorders such as metabolic syndrome, hypertension, heart disease, etc.)

The U.S. leads the world in percentages of overweight (generally defined as a body mass index (BMI) of over 25) and obese (BMI over 30) residents, though a number of countries are close behind.

While the specific causes of metabolic syndrome (pre-diabetes) and the causal connections of obesity to other conditions such as inflammation, sleep disorders, etc. are still under investigation, it’s clear that... » Read more

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Off The Cuff: Over Our Skis

Why a wipe-out is likely soon
Thursday, December 24, 2015, 5:31 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Mish Shedlock discuss:

  • More & More Bad Data
    • Recent economic metrics are terrible
  • Over Our Skis
    • A return to recession is pretty much baked in the cake for 2016
  • Signs Of A Consumer Slowdown
    • Chris shares some intelligence from Amazon
  • The Big Short
    • A good reminder of the risks we're living under
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Off The Cuff: Rate Hike!

What does it portend?
Friday, December 18, 2015, 12:00 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Charles Hugh Smith discuss:

  • Rate Hike!
    • The Fed raises interest rates for the 1st time in a decade
  • Shock Wave
    • Even a small rate increase can disrupt today's highly-leveraged economy
  • The Beginning Of The End
    • The 'Debt Is Good' Era May Finally Be Ending
  • Modern Game Of Thrones
    • How The Power Structure Clings To Its Control

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today. » Read more

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Pop! It’s Time.

The end of the (most recent) bubble era is here
Monday, December 14, 2015, 12:51 AM

The Federal Reserve is a serial bubble blower; and it has done it again. As we’ve been saying for a long time (too long, it seems), when this bubble comes apart, massive disruption and economic pain will follow.

Based on recent events, it seems that the time has finally arrived to say: This is it.

It’s done. Put a fork in it. It’s over. » Read more

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Off The Cuff: Will She, Or Won't She?

Will the Fed raise rates for the 1st time in a decade?
Sunday, December 13, 2015, 1:13 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Mish Shedlock discuss:

  • The Sins Of The Past
    • We are approaching 2007 levels of instability
  • Credit Spread Warnings
    • Rising spreads are bad news for bonds
  • Slowing GDP
    • Weakness reigns in the face of the next Fed hike
  • Will She Or Won't She?
    • All eyes this week on Janet Yellen

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today. » Read more

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Using Gold to Protect Yourself In Advance of the Greatest Wealth Transfer of Our Lifetime

Where & how much to buy, when to sell
Tuesday, December 8, 2015, 11:52 AM

Executive Summary

  • Calculating the "floor" beneath which gold will likely not fall
  • The coming Great Wealth Transfer, which almost certainly will occur in our lifetime
  • How much to invest in gold
  • How to invest in gold
  • Exit strategies: when will it make sense to sell your holdings? And what should you exchange them for?

If you have not yet read The Screaming Fundamentals For Owning Gold, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

The Floor

The one place that I most like to buy something is as close to its replacement value as I can.  And the replacement value for gold is both below its current price of $1,080 and rising steadily. There’s a floor under the price of gold which, like any mined substance, is determined by the cost to get more of it out of the ground.

As has been true for all mining and oil production, the all-in costs of getting gold out of the ground have been rising, and rising sharply, for many years.  Currently the all-in cost to produce gold, across the whole industry, is more than $1,200 per ounce.

Here in late 2015 we are seeing lots of signs of obvious distress among gold producers because the price of gold is below their cost of production.  This will cause supply to... » Read more

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Off The Cuff: What The Rich Are Worrying About

Chris reports from his tour of high net worth conferences
Friday, December 4, 2015, 2:01 AM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Charles Hugh Smith discuss:

  • What The Rich Are Worrying About
    • Return 'of' capital, vs return 'on'
  • The Future Of The Dollar & Gold
    • Both are likely to rise materially over the next year
  • Why Should We Fear Deflation?
    • Most of us should welcome it
  • Market Psychology Is Reversing
    • Fear is starting to overwhelm greed

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today. » Read more

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Murder And Mayhem In The Middle East

Why it matters to those living in the West
Monday, November 30, 2015, 8:03 PM

To understand what’s happening in Syria right now, you have to understand the tactics and motivations of the US and NATO -- the three parties sharing interwoven aims and goals in the Middle East/North African (MENA) region.

The main point here is that as resources become tight, the ruling powers can be expected to act in increasingly desperate ways. » Read more