What's the most likely course for the Great Contraction, financial crash and chaos or a more gradual deleveraging through inflation and energy cost rises?
Why must there be a most likely course? The reason I admire Cris so much is that he is a BIG PICTURE MAN, and not only that, he can disect the big picture into detailed smaller ones with precision, and can explainhow every little bit is connected to the other one.
We're in for a perfect storm..... EVERYTHING's going to crash. Concentrating on just a small portion of this storm isn't constructive really.
Like I keep saying..... if you've got excess wealth (lucky you!), spend the lot, now, on resiliency.
Seeing as you travel quite often for conferences, interviews, speaking engagements, etc etc, what actions or planning or preparation do you typically take to mitigate or hedge against the effects of some of the more likely disruptions that may come about when you're away from home? Things like say, a systemic economic disruption with potential for market or banking holidays, or any event that disrupts the delicate just-in-time infrastructure in some way. Are there any key "go-to" information sources you tend to check for signs of imminent problems each day when you travel?
I am a little late discovering Adam's invitation to "interview" Chris. What a great idea! If the invitation still stands, I'd like to pose this question: Chris has recently mentioned a few times that he can show that the US is insolvent using a napkin and pocket calculator. Chris, could you please show us those figures? That would be most helpful to me. Many thanks, Jan B.
This question just came to me as I read an article about Obama's upcoming State of the Union Address. It indicated that he would expand on his "most effective economic speech yet". Effective? Howso? Anyway, my question to Chris might be something along the lines of "If you were suddenly POTUS, what would you, or could you, do, practically within the powers of the office (which are pretty much unlimited according to the recent office holders....) to steer us to as soft a landing as possible in our prediciment?" Is there a possibility that any presidential candidate could actually do anything positive or creative- within that office? Election year musings, though- for the first time in my life- I'm considering not voting...Aloha, Steve
How would you revise the Crash Course in the light of recent developments in the extraction of natural gas in North America and elsewhere? I read somewhere that Exxon is planning a transition from an oil to a natural gas company. So is it possible that in the years ahead we will see a transition from an oil-based to natural gas-based energy economy?
Did the interview happen already? I was trying to find the interview and was not sure where it would be put. When is the estimated time of the posting?
This is a great idea, to have us post questions for Chris....so here is the "big" one for me.....
If these events or serious of events come to pass....how bad are things are things going to get?
Are we likely to see power outages? Mass protests? Food Riots?
Every prep I make, even if it is the purchase of even one silver dime on a Saturday morning, or saving money for gardening tools, EVERY LITTLE PREP I MAKE is a fear driven response to the worst case scenarios. What can budget strapped middle class people do to make what is coming less painful?
We plan to release the interview with Chris this Wednesday.
In it, I mention the brain teaser JAG -- or more correctly, Captain Sheeple -- posed earlier in this thread. Here's our answer (without help from Google, we swear). JAG will hopefully let us know if we're on the mark or not:
Step 1: Take out an increasing allotment of coins from each bag, until you have 9 stacks of coins (45 coins in all)
Step 2: Put all these stacks of coins on the digital scale and weigh them
Step 3: Do the math
That will give you the identity of the Bag # containing the counterfeit coins.
[Example: if the scale reads 45.6oz, subtract 45 (=0.6), multiply by 10 (=6) --> Bag #6 is the culprit.
Captain Sheeple: how'd we do? More important, how close to spot will the dealer pay us for our bag of tungsten-salted gold coins?
Here's our answer (without help from Google, we swear). JAG will hopefully let us know if we're on the mark or not...
You nailed it!
Captain Sheeple asked me to relay his congratulations to the CM.com braintrust, though he says that last question (quoted above in italics) does raise some suspicion about Mr. Google's involvement .
The good news is that the dealer will pay full spot for all of your gold, including the tungsten-salted coin.
The bad news is that his buddy robbed you in the parking lot after the sale. Too bad you can't call the police without incriminating yourself, as the Gold Prohibition Law of 2014 forbids the sale or exhange of gold within the "lower 99%" of the population. Damn those black market thugs (they used to work on Wall Street).
Can't wait for the podcast,
Hi Chris, simple question here. What do you see the future of diesel fuel looking like? I bought a VW TDI after the 2008 crash and it's our only vehicle. With GLOBAL diesel shortages, how do you think the availability and cost of diesel will fare? It seems Japan and many others who's grids are failing or insufficient are supplementing with diesel generators.
I haven't much looked into bio-diesel or creating my own fuel if necessary so I don't know if that is a sufficient reason to hang on to the vehicle.
Thank you for what you do.
I`ve been a subscriber for awhile and I can only say this is one of the best sites I ever seen.
My question is:
In your last piece "Why Our Currency Will Fail" you were for the first time (or at least as long as I have followed you) somewhat more critical to the US political system than in any other stuf that you have written or talked about before.
Is this something you intend to continue to write about in the future?
If the answer is yes, then the site will be more than perfekt. The combination of finance, peak oil and politics will be Unreplacable, especially in these troubled times.
Great questions! And, does anyone (with credibility -- like CM) care to venture a prediction on when we will run out of time.
We are planning on builing a hometead and have the land but do not have the financial resources (yet) to build on it. I fear that we will run out of time before we get the money.
I know it would be a HUGE project but . . .
Any plans to put the WSID content into book form like the Crash Course book?
I live in Canada; at some point you mentionned the Canadian dollar as being a good haven currency from the US dollar - is it still the case? Understandably, a lot of your analyses focus on the US situation, but given the dependency of Canada's economy on the US' (although Harper's now working hard at selling our assets to China), how do you see the worsening of the situation in the US affecting Canada (and the canadian $)? Given that we have a fair amount of natural resources (including the infamous tar sands), do you see it possible that at some point the US invades Canada to steal them, or goes into conflict with China over them? To what extent should canadians follow the advice/alerts that you give to your compatriots? How safe (or not) do you think we are in the current house of cards?
Thank you so much for your analyses, your site is the first one I read every day. Keep-up the good work!
What weight do you give to Seritonon Reuptake Inhibitors in pacifying the herd?
The herd is nicely pacified,me thinks. Drugged into a state of indifference. The herd has also been infantilised.
Hey! Then again, no-one is coming at me with an axe.
Woe is us if we withdraw their supply.
Chris and Adam:
I'd pay double the membership fee if you two would do this weekly! I hope these can continue at least monthly. Thanks for the additional ability to interact with you.
One of the great things that attracts me to Chris' work is his positive outlook on the potential of the future. Like many of us, I'm in pursuit of well researched, compelling thinkers who take the same comprehensive approach as Chris does (with the same level of data rich rigor) and explore the potential for a future that, although challenging and volatile, is hopeful and worth living. Rob Hopkins and the Transition Movement has done a good deal of work on this, but I'd love to have more Martenson perspective as well.
I'd like to learn more about your plans for future Crash Course chapters and I'm hoping that they include a discussion about community focused actions that may help us envision a future worth working toward.
There are other people with an understanding of the three E's thinking through similar issues from different angles: John Michael Greer and Richard Heinberg come to mind, as well as many others more narrowly focused, such as local currencies, permiculture, appropriate technology, etc.
My question is this: Who are the people you turn to for inspiration with envisioning a future worth living as well as building community toward it?
I suspect your office has some good books on the shelves (and articles/web resources). Thanks in advance for sharing.
I would love to hear Chris's opinion on the eventual fate of TPTB. For any sort of decent civilization to emerge from the trials we are now experiencing would require fair and solid rule of law that the masses have faith in. This would obviously require at the very least a removal from power of all the corrupt. My question then is, do you foresee any likelihood that the psychopaths currently in power will ever be brought to justice? As unlikely as this might be, I would suggest that in the alternative we are looking at a huge fundamental change in what it is to be human, and I don't mean that in a good way.
most of your posts take a US perspective, although the situation at this point is global. You do look at what happens in Europe but more as a way to understand what will happen to the US. Would it be possible to present also a more European perspective?
As I look into the future it seems each country will have one of three outcomes:
As a scientist I am sure you can recognise the old division of dynamical system into order, chaos and complex systems. Of course as a citizen we all would like to live in a society of type 3.
Do you agree with this view? Which nations do you think will be of the third type, and what do you base your analysis on?
The following quote from Warren Buffet's latest Berkshire Hattaway annual report - which was all over the news - made me pounder the question below. (Here's where I got it: http://nonchalantrepreneur.com/post/18259699208/warren-buffet-on-gold-as...)
"Today the world’s gold stock is about 170,000 metric tons. If all of this gold were melded together, it would form a cube of about 68 feet per side. (Picture it fitting comfortably within a baseball infield.) At $1,750 per ounce – gold’s price as I write this – its value would be $9.6 trillion. Call this cube pile A.
Let’s now create a pile B costing an equal amount. For that, we could buy all U.S. cropland (400 million acres with output of about $200 billion annually), plus 16 Exxon Mobils (the world’s most profitable company, one earning more than $40 billion annually). After these purchases, we would have about $1 trillion left over for walking-around money (no sense feeling strapped after this buying binge). Can you imagine an investor with $9.6 trillion selecting pile A over pile B?"
This made me think of Chris stating at some point (in the Crash Course or some blog article, I can't find it right now) something like: 'How would you know it's the right time to use your gold? Everyone has to decide for himself. For me it would be when I can swap it for fertile land.' And then also bringing it together with the recent article about 'Owning wealth in the ground': http://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/james-dines-owning-wealth-ground-your....
Hence the following question: (1) Wouldn't it make sense to prefer buying (fertile) land over gold already at this moment? Instead of exchanging it at some future point in time? (2) And how do you see both evolving inflation/deflation-wise compared to each other? (3) And finally, if things evolve the way you explain on your website, then why would anyone in the future want to sell their (fertile) land anyway? What could be their motivation?
Thanks for clarifying your point of view on this issue.
Karl van Staeyen
I found this great one-hour interview where Chris addresses a lot of points, including current geo-political ones there:
Could they be mentionned on the site when they happen so that we're sure not to miss them - there's always something more to take from these conversations, even though we know a lot of it already.
I try to know all the people in my neighborhood. There are children who are nearly finished with High School who are asking me for advice. In the past, I'd counsel the ones with math or science skills towards college. Those more inclined to work with their hands, I recommend whatever particular field they are interested in that can't be hijacked by an overseas provider. I don't know what to advise those who just want to start working at a job that needs no additional schooling. I tell them that they'll be at the mercy of the market. (That feels a bit hollow for me.)
I always tell these kids that the most important decision they will ever make in life is who will be the parent of their children. I also tell them to live below their means so they have savings that can be invested; otherwise, they'll be a debt slave forever.
My question relates to the fields that will likely exist and be in demand in the future. Given the 3 groups I identified, what general areas would you suggest as career choices given A) best case scenario (no insurmountable crises) or B) Modern society ceases.
Hi Adam and Chris:
thanks for this forum... much more interesting than some of the blah blah out there.
Two thoughts I would love to hear your take upon:
I find it very disenginuous how recommendations for participating in the stock market, particularily mining stocks, is pushed on investors.
Especially now as the economy resembles an airplane at its vertical stall speed.
Bear markets exist to lure the unwary in to crush them. Selling tickets for a seat on the bus rushing to a cliff?
Also, can I have your thoughts on possession of gold and silver. I also have a substantial amount of our net worth in my possession.
Do you see a time when we could become the targets of a confiscatory government?
Did you listen to the second podcast? Because most of your questions were already answered.
I would like to know if mark-to-market is stll suspended for banks' real estate-related assets. If so, why is this important piece of information not discussed and widely known, who knows this (for example, could China not know this fact), and who benefits from it and who pays the price? If so, this would argue for a dollar crash sooner rather than later?
I would like to hear a summary of what happened at Rowe and a more detailed description of what is planned for Kripalu.
Agree and seconded. Status...plus if still ongoing...anyone pushing returning to GAAP sanity (reality).
I appreciate the possibility we get through the interviews to hear your advice and thoughts.
Very interesting indeed.
I do not own a house and if I wished to buy one, I'd have to take a personal mortgage to be able to. I think houses are (still) overvalued (in Belgium) which is why so far I decided not to buy one. But that of course strongly diminishes my options to invest in my own food, energy, water... systems.
How would you weigh the risks of taking on a mortgage in theses financially insecure times versus the opportunities presented by owning your own house for improving your condition / resilience? And what factors would you take into account to make a decision? Eg. job security, fixed rate mortgage...
Would you advice to buy at a later stage? Wait for a drop in prices? Or would you advice in any case to get out / stay out of personal debt? Why? In that case - in which I would continue renting - which options would you advice me to improve my condition / resilience? (food, shelter...)
Thanks for your insights,
Questions for Chris.
Looking at Stock Index prices in Greece, and a bit lesser extent Portugal and Spain, there appears to be significant negative correlation or fall to rising Interest Rates there. Just as one would expect based on history with US stocks and interest rates.
1.) What is Chris's view of how the stock market would do based on the 3 recent above country cases?
2.) If agree to a significant fall, ways to utilize this via investement vehicles other than PM's like option techniques, or buying the most in demand, necessary commodities (food, oil and so on) from their recent price behavior in these 3 countries to reduce or eliminate loses?
FWIW...Loose numbers drawn from the 3 above events, plus our past US history extrapolate a 50 percent drop in US is very plausable, if not more. Of couse statistics is based on the assumptions used, that is, somewhat subjective.
BTW...doesn't this tie into Biederman's thoughts on price and liquidity?
I really enjoy all the information from Chris. The podcasts are something I enjoy listening to, I consider them like the best brain food around at the moment. My Question to Chris is this
Chris, I am a fan. I enjoy your work. Please do not take this question in the wrong context. You interviewees in the podcast always habit the same universe as we do. What I mean is that you find yourself agreeing with the people you interview too often. It is time to have some intelligent minds which do not agree on all that this website represents. I can think of some like Jim Rogers, Roubini, Grant etc.
The person being interviewed here :
Thanks for the work once again
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