Timeline/Stages for Collapse of our Way of Life

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Timeline/Stages for Collapse of our Way of Life

Here's a must-read essay if you're writing a post-apocalyptic dystopian tale


This article claims that the hypothetical collapse of our modern society can/will be delinneated into 14 parts. I'll start you off with the author's first paragraph, then I'll paraphrase for you from there. It's a VERY long essay (over 8,000 words) but pretty thorough in its treatment of the subject.

http://www.countercurrents.org/goodchild090510.htm

Quote:

The Imminent Collapse Of Industrial Society

By Peter Goodchild -- 09 May, 2010

The collapse of modern industrial society has 14 parts, each with a somewhat causal relationship to the next. (1) Fossil fuels, (2) metals, and (3) electricity are a tightly-knit group, and no industrial civilization can have one without the others. The decline in fossil-fuel production is the most critical aspect of the collapse, and most of the following text will be devoted to that topic. As those three disappear, (4) food and (5) fresh water become scarce; grain and wild fish supplies per capita have been declining for years, water tables are falling everywhere, rivers are not reaching the sea.

Here's my take on what he has to say about the way a collapse might unfold.

FIRST, ONGOING SHORTAGES OF INDUSTRIAL RESOURCES TAKE THEIR TOLL ON MANUFACTURING AND COMMERCE, AND ESPECIALLY THE GLOBAL ECONOMY.

1) Fossil fuels
2) Metals
3) Electricity

SECOND, THE RESULTING SCARCITY OF BASIC LIFE NEEDS CHIPS AWAY AT SOCIAL STABILITY.

4) Food
5) Fresh Water

THIRD, SOCIETAL INFRASTRUCTURES START TO CRUMBLE.

6) Transportation
7) Communication

FOURTH, SOCIETAL RELATIONSHIPS START TO CRUMBLE.

8) Government
9) Education
10) Divisions of Labor

FIFTH, TRUE ANARCHY SETS IN.

11) Crime
12) Cults
13) Craziness
14) Chaos

The author goes on to say:

Quote:

These are cascading dominoes; all parts of the collapse have more to do with causality than with chronology, although there is no great distinction to be made between the two. If we look at matters from a more purely chronological viewpoint, however, we can say that there is a clear division into two time periods, two phases. The first phase will be merely economic hardship, and the second will be entropy. In the first phase the major issues will be inflation, unemployment, and the stock market. The second phase will be characterized by the disappearance of money, law, and government. In more pragmatic terms, we can say that the second phase will begin when money is no longer accepted as a means of exchange.

After this beginning he delves deeply (for MANY paragraphs and in great detail) into the issues of fossil fuels, energy, food and water, and arable land.

He concludes with this:

Quote:

With a slightly optimistic view of the future, one can say that a few people will succeed, and that such people will generally be those who have the skills to do so, even if there will be other people who stay alive by sheer chance. The greatest “resource” of all will be the knowledge inside one's own head. People with the information and skills required for supplying themselves and their community with food and shelter, however, can certainly be called survivalists, even if there should be a better label.

... snip ...

We must also keep in mind that as the centuries unfold the human world will always be much smaller than it is today. It may seem odd to speak of the social implications of hematite versus taconite, for example, but what we are really examining is a human population that will be shrinking considerably from its present numbers and living a less complicated life. The world will not be smaller in the sense of “the global village” with its rapid communication and transportation, but smaller in almost the opposite sense: that each person's life will be lived within a smaller geographic range than today, and that the total of human numbers will be small. That smallness will be repeated mile by mile, league by league: people will be counted in groups of hundreds rather than billions, and the kingdoms of the distant future will be the size of our present counties.

... snip ...

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Re: Timeline/Stages for Collapse of our Way of Life

Interesting article.  Thanks for finding and sharing!  I'm going to take this apart a bit and go from there.

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Re: Timeline/Stages for Collapse of our Way of Life

ESTIMATES

{Sam Rose and Joss Winn]: In fact, by 2030, the structural problems of our society related to resource depletion, peak oil, the food and water crisis, and climate change, will lead to an acceleration of dysfunction and social crisis, and by then, it may already be too late to stop an accelerated unraveling of the current civilisational model. In their view therefore, we only have 15 years to make a sufficient impact to avoid major catastrophes....

Multiple corporations are relentlessly pursuing total control of communications infrastructure, (and already have total control of) financial systems, energy and food distribution, etc So, by 2030 (not later) it is plausible that we will already be in a state where millions, if not billions will be marginalized by all existing basic sustenance systems (food, water, energy, access). Stuart Kauffman, and other complex systems theorists have shown that in all systems, change tends to happen in an "s curve" fashion. Kauffman uses a sandpile as an example in his book "At Home In The Universe". He describes the data signature of a massive pile of sand collapsing. First small bits fall off, then large chunks, then larger and larger, faster and faster. The total rate of collapse towards the end is exponentially faster than the beginning. I think we are seeing the same with global human systems now, and that we are *now* in the beginning time of collapse, with signals already present around the world. This means we have maybe 15 years, starting *now*, to start changing things in significant ways for at least 45% or more of people on the earth. 45% minimum probably will get us enough inertia in the opposite direction to slow down the momentum that is starting *now*." Joss Winn: "The growing consensus is that the peak of conventional oil was in 2005 and that the peak of all liquid fuels will be between 2010 - 2014. I've summarised this and a few other things relating to climate, technology and efficiency: here

Since writing that, a paper from an Oxford University research group (including ex-Chief Scientific Advisor to UK gov, Sr. David King) has added to the growing Peak Oil consensus."

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Re: Timeline/Stages for Collapse of our Way of Life

In the mid 70's Bucky Fuller said we had 7 years to turn things around. Anyone here think we did?

V

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Re: Timeline/Stages for Collapse of our Way of Life

V wrote:

In the mid 70's Bucky Fuller said we had 7 years to turn things around. Anyone here think we did?

V

Sure, we turned things around.  Unfortunately, we turned 'em 360 degrees instead of 180...

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Re: Timeline/Stages for Collapse of our Way of Life

Confessions of a Doomer

    I must come clean and admit that I'm looking forward to collapse. (I'm using "collapse" in the anthropological sense, meaning only a re-simplification of society, without the catastrophic connotation the term has accumulated.) The process would be difficult, the resulting turmoil and loss of life could be horrific, but the alternative, in my opinion, would be worse. The status quo has devastated the biosphere and impoverished perhaps a billion or more people. Some would say those people were even poorer before, but whatever creature comforts the global capitalist system has given them have been more than negated by the social, emotional, spiritual and (usually) physical dislocation it has forced on them. I realize these are broad generalizations. I make them because I feel that dislocation and despoilment in myself, and I think our way of life is the cause of it.
     Re-simplifying our society could improve our lives tremendously. Instead of spiritual alienation, we could again feel connected to the land, the wildlife and the seasons (and there might not be so much Seasonal Affective Disorder). Instead of social isolation, we could again live in community with our neighbors. Instead of competition, we could provide for ourselves by working cooperatively. This is the Sunny Side of Collapse. It may be (ironically) Utopian, but I think the disintegration of capitalism would strip us of many of our paranoid, competitive tendencies. This may be what truly isolates we Doomers, the fact that inside every one of us is a Utopian. We reject society as it is, yet still believe we'll embrace a society forged in the crucible of apocalypse. We're funny that way.
     Now the time has come for my final confession: The sooner collapse happens, the better off we'll be. That's right. Not only am I pro-apocalypse, I'm rather impatient for the end of the world to begin. It's simple, really. Since the System (a.k.a. the economy, or the method by which we keep ourselves alive) is destroying the natural environment (a.k.a. our habitat, or the only planet that can support our kind) and our spirit (a.k.a. the soul, or the thing that makes life worth living), it only makes sense that the sooner the System collapses, the better off we'll all be. The longer the economy hums (or coughs) along, the longer we continue with business-as-usual. Whether we go along to get along or because we honestly believe in the benevolence of the System, we're all just lemmings headed for the cliff unless we diverge from the mainstream.
     Also, it's hard to convince people we're in the early stages of collapse when things are still pretty good. Unemployment is around 10% (officially), and foreclosures are spreading like kudzu, but most Americans can still afford to feed, clothe and house themselves. Only when we have trouble meeting our basic needs will we begin to seriously question and fundamentally reform our society. And I believe, passionately, that we need to begin this process ASAP, while there are still enough fossil fuels, water and other natural resources to support 6.8 billion people. So my message is this: Don't wait until the $#!+ hits the fan, because by then it could be too late.

---- Mickey Foley

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Re: Timeline/Stages for Collapse of our Way of Life

V wrote:

In the mid 70's Bucky Fuller said we had 7 years to turn things around. Anyone here think we did?

V

Old Bucky.  Always the optomist.

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Re: Timeline/Stages for Collapse of our Way of Life

docmims wrote:

V wrote:

In the mid 70's Bucky Fuller said we had 7 years to turn things around. Anyone here think we did?

V

Old Bucky.  Always the optomist.

I would have to say Old Bucky was right. Look at the state of the planet and our present course of action and tell me what kind of lives our future descendents will have. Optimistic about our current economic and political structure?????????? This century won't offer us a soft landing because we refuse to make a collective change in a cultural/political/economic system that believes the world revolves around and bows down to it. 

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Re: Timeline/Stages for Collapse of our Way of Life

On problem with humans they become very self destructive at ever faster rates when the don't get what they want or feel they deserve.

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Re: Timeline/Stages for Collapse of our Way of Life

I for one think it will play out differently:

  1. 1.5 trillion in Alt-A's and Option Arms
  2. 3.5-5.- trillion in CRE
  3. Both the above collapse at least 3,000 banks
  4. Fed - of course - continues to pump money into a broken baloon
  5. Currency collapses (could collapse in the EU first without the sure fails of CRE and RE) (China could tank)
  6. Oil demand falls into the septic tank
  7. By the time we straighten it out and have demand for oil we will be so pathetically behind in technology and the platforms to get to the hard to get oil that peak oil will be peak oil on massive steroids

So it will be a wash, rinse repeat with oil being the second bolder to land on top of us.

Got that to look forward to.

And I know, I'm an eternal optimist.

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Re: Timeline/Stages for Collapse of our Way of Life

It finally dawns on everyone that the US and all of Europe is bankrupt and the balls starts dropping.  The big boys can't pay their bills,  other countries stop playing nice with us.  They demand COD delivery.  We offer funny money,  they refuse.  Things get tight here.  Everything we know about follows.  Here and in Europe.  What happens in China and India and Africa??

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Re: Timeline/Stages for Collapse of our Way of Life

From XRayMike's post:

Also, it's hard to convince people we're in the early stages of collapse when things are still pretty good. Unemployment is around 10% (officially), and foreclosures are spreading like kudzu, but most Americans can still afford to feed, clothe and house themselves. Only when we have trouble meeting our basic needs will we begin to seriously question and fundamentally reform our society. And I believe, passionately, that we need to begin this process ASAP, while there are still enough fossil fuels, water and other natural resources to support 6.8 billion people. So my message is this: Don't wait until the $#!+ hits the fan, because by then it could be too late.

---- Mickey Foley

+1.  Ain't that the truth?

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Re: Timeline/Stages for Collapse of our Way of Life

land2341 wrote:

It finally dawns on everyone that the US and all of Europe is bankrupt and the balls starts dropping.  The big boys can't pay their bills,  other countries stop playing nice with us.  They demand COD delivery.  We offer funny money,  they refuse.  Things get tight here.  Everything we know about follows.  Here and in Europe.  What happens in China and India and Africa??

What happens in China and India and Africa??

They return to subsistance living and are as happy as a lark. That capitalist/industrialist thing was a drag anyway, what with all the social turmoil it caused. The meek inherit the Earth.

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Re: Timeline/Stages for Collapse of our Way of Life

Having lived in India I can give you a reasonable idea of what will happen there. You have no idea of environmental destruction if you have never been there. Many millions will die. India is the poster child for the green revolution. It is barely able to feed itself with massive amounts of fossil fuel inputs. It is running out of water for irrigation. The Punjab which is India's breadbasket relies on an aquifer. The current usage is 145% of recharge.

Fortunately many people still live in the countryside and they can farm with wooden implements and bullocks.

Energy wise they have virtually no oil or gas and rely on Iran for most of it. War with Iran by the US or Israel would be devastating for India.

As for China and Africa I would assume the same scenario. Massive die off of human beings. My guess is about 4.5 billion or so will leave feet first. Carrying capacity of the Earth without cheap energy is abut 1.5 billion. The survivors will not be living in deserts as there will be no way to pump water to them. Communities will center around areas where resources are easily extracted . Of course maybe I am wrong.

V

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Re: Timeline/Stages for Collapse of our Way of Life

In preparation for the future I bought a crop farm: however, after reading the article I realised that there are many more levels to go thru to acquire the skills needed to survive. I am still at the stage of identification of the skills. 

I think that among the top ones lies the level of physical fitness. 

The brief inventory I have done tells me right away that to become effective I will have to seriously pursue continuous education from now til it happens.

My God What a challenge ahead.  Thank you for the eye openning article.

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Re: Timeline/Stages for Collapse of our Way of Life

AVOIDING COLLAPSE

April 2010

The best books on social and economic collapse are from Tainter and Quigley.  They are the best since they both provide systemic models of collapse that can apply across all historical instances.  For example, Tainter sees civilization as  problem solving system that collapses when it begins to succumb to diseconomies of complexity.  Quigley sees civilization as a patchwork of wealth/solution creation engines that fail when they become self-serving institutions (organizations that perpetuate the problem they were built to solve) that fight renewal.  Better yet, the models they propose are not mutually exclusive. They compliment each other, Tainter's model anticipates increasing turbulence (the crisis of 2008) and Quigley's anticipates systemic predation (like the financial oligarchy).

However, as good as these theoretical models are, they miss one critical insight.  It occurred to me while reading these works in conjunction with Elinor Ostrom's work on self-managed resource commons (everything from fisheries to irrigation systems).  The common finding is that every system is unique at the local level.  No two irrigation systems are the same.  No two fisheries are the same, etc.  Further, the problems they represent are all rapidly changing, in that what's required to effectively manage them is divergent.    

This implies that complex societies, over time, develop a yawning mismatch between the local and the general.  More formally:

The need for evolutionary advances at the local level will always outstrip the pace of evolutionary change at the center.  When the mismatch grows too large, the entire system collapses.

I suspect this applies not only to governance (politics, bureaucracy and legal systems) but also to markets, in that the centralization of markets works against the development of local wealth (scale requirements, predatory behavior, etc.).

Of course, this is also very similar to the problem I saw in John Boyd's decision making models (see "Open Decision Making" for more).   It also implies that a workable solution to this problem (as well as the drivers of collapse outlined by Tainter and Quigley) is to return sovereignty and autonomy to the local, to the extent possible, to enable massively parallel decision making.  The only way I can envision this working is through the establishment of resilient communities (aka, a semi-autonomous polis) that is economically self-sufficient, able to protect itself, and highly democratic.

http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/globalguerrillas/2010/04/avoiding-collapse.html

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Re: Timeline/Stages for Collapse of our Way of Life

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Re: Timeline/Stages for Collapse of our Way of Life

Thanks Mike I feel much better now

V

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Re: Timeline/Stages for Collapse of our Way of Life

Collapsenet.com apparently doesn't exist yet.  Do I have the wrong url or isn't the site up and running yet?

Doug

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Re: Timeline/Stages for Collapse of our Way of Life

Collapsenet.com apparently doesn't exist yet.  Do I have the wrong url or isn't the site up and running yet?

Doug

It is set up. I urge everyone to subcribe to get prescient information of the world around you. 

Go here:

http://www.youtube.com/user/collapsenet#p/a/u/0/ihjBCrYD3N8

You must set up a YouTube account first to subscribe. It's free.

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Re: Timeline/Stages for Collapse of our Way of Life

xraymike79 wrote:

Go here:

http://www.youtube.com/user/collapsenet#p/a/u/0/ihjBCrYD3N8

You must set up a YouTube account first to subscribe. It's free.

Mike, once you are subscribed how do you get to the maps he spoke of? I'm not finding a way to get to his site ... I just get the video.

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Re: Timeline/Stages for Collapse of our Way of Life

Mike, once you are subscribed how do you get to the maps he spoke of? I'm not finding a way to get to his site ... I just get the video.

..still working on it.

Other links:

http://www.facebook.com/posted.php?id=181223085147&share_id=119210464769...

http://www.facebook.com/CollapseMovie?v=app_2309869772

and

http://apps.facebook.com/feeds/share_posts.php?id=181223085147&viewer=10...

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Re: Timeline/Stages for Collapse of our Way of Life

SagerXX wrote:

V wrote:

In the mid 70's Bucky Fuller said we had 7 years to turn things around. Anyone here think we did?

V

Sure, we turned things around.  Unfortunately, we turned 'em 360 degrees instead of 180...

haha, so well said my friend!

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Re: Timeline/Stages for Collapse of our Way of Life

Collapsenet.com:

It is in the beta testing phase right now.  (Im one of the testers.)  The programmers (volunteers) have been working on the feedback/bugs from the beta testers since 5/8/10.   One programmer estimated that the site would go online substantially complete by Saturday.

Jenna Orkin announce that the michaelruppert.blogspot.com will move over to the collapsenet tomorrow. 

From what I have seen in testing it, Mike has a great concept going.  Be patient - I think it will be worth waiting for. 

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.....

......

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Re: Timeline/Stages for Collapse of our Way of Life

Update on Collapsenet.com from Ruppert:

May 10, 2010, 2100 PDT -- If I were a part of the old paradigm I'd put spin on it. But I hate the old paradigm. I hate spin. The bottom line is that we thought we had our s--t together for a launch on Wednesday May 12 but we missed a few things. All in all, the 12 people who are part of CollapseNet (seven of them unpaid volunteers) have achieved miracles. But these are tough times for a group of wonderful people from four countries and four states to come together and make something like this happen. Except for me and my attorney Wes Miller (our Chief of Staff), and Chantelle Noelle (our CFO), none of us knew each other or how each other worked, or talked or thought before attempting this. Yet what we've put together is something really... useful right now; a rare thing. Some of you are helping us beta test and that input is also making a difference. Thank you. We have developed our own software, purchased services, Incorporated, established accounts and invested many hundreds of hours to make CollapseNet come to life. It will soon. And the next time I give a launch date it will be a good one.

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Re: Timeline/Stages for Collapse of our Way of Life

........

This is a crisis for which a solution is difficult to imagine. Individuals, for the most part, are simply not equipped to deal with a culture that has been around for three generations and whose dream machine is ever more sophisticated. Combine that with an increasing disengagement of people as citizens -that is, as people who imagine their future as part of the commons -and you have a formula for social, economic and political disaster.

Optimists may have imagined that the current combination of inconvenient truths would cause people to pause and re-examine their habits. We are at, or past, peak oil -its price will inevitably shoot higher in the next five years and could reach $200 a barrel. Our natural resources are becoming more and more expensive as they are inexorably depleted and the cost of mining them (using carbon based energy) increases. Add to this global climate change and the stupendous debts of governments -on top of individual debt -and you have the conditions for a kind of social Armageddon.

But trying to imagine a social movement or a combined, unified movement confronting all of these crises, is a severe test even for those who have spent their lives organizing for, and analyzing, social change. No one in memory has faced this kind of need for change. Many have imagined and fought for change they wanted -a more equitable world, a more sustainable world, a peaceful world. But this is different. The potential for entering a new dark age is real. And it would not be confined to a few countries. The crisis is global.

The consumer madness indicated by the astronomical personal debt levels suggests an almost wilful denial of reality -spending like mad because somewhere, deep down, we know it's all going to be over soon and we might as well enjoy it while we can.

Read more: http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Consumers+denial+with+social+crisis+looming/3037183/story.html#ixzz0oBLB1oUf

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Re: Timeline/Stages for Collapse of our Way of Life

Peoplenomics This Week

Lying About ELE's Part One

Not too many times I can think of in my life when the whole planet has faced multiple ELE's - extinction level events - but we have several that are coming into view now.  Just for fun, sport, and amusement, I thought it would be a worthy project this weekend to put some of them on the table:  The extinction of fiat money globally, extinction of the Euro, the extinction from the Gulf oil spill, the extinction of the US government due to economic unsustainability...well, you get the picture.  But first up, we need some framing references.

A reader who is an engineer of considerable experience says watch this one evolve carefully because it is destined to continue to grow and he shares this long, but worthy explanation why:

    "Heard your mention of the oil disaster in the Gulf of Mexico this morning, and you (and most everyone else except maybe George Noory) are totally missing the boat on how big and bad of a disaster this is.

    First fact, the original estimate was about 5,000 gallons of oil a day spilling into the ocean. Now they're saying 200,000 gallons a day. That's over a million gallons of crude oil a week!

    I'm engineer with 25 years of experience. I've worked on some big projects with big machines. Maybe that's why this mess is so clear to me.

    First, the BP platform was drilling for what they call deep oil. They go out where the ocean is about 5,000 feet deep and drill another 30,000 feet into the crust of the earth. This it right on the edge of what human technology can do. Well, this time they hit a pocket of oil at such high pressure that it burst all of their safety valves all the way up to the drilling rig and then caused the rig to explode and sink. Take a moment to grasp the import of that. The pressure behind this oil is so high that it destroyed the maximum effort of human science to contain it.

    When the rig sank it flipped over and landed on top of the drill hole some 5,000 feet under the ocean.

    Now they've got a hole in the ocean floor, 5,000 feet down with a wrecked oil drilling rig sitting on top of is spewing 200,000 barrels of oil a day into the ocean. Take a moment and consider that, will you!

    First they have to get the oil rig off the hole to get at it in order to try to cap it. Do you know the level of effort it will take to move that wrecked oil rig, sitting under 5,000 feet of water? That operation alone would take years and hundreds of millions to accomplish. Then, how do you cap that hole in the muddy ocean floor? There just is no way. No way.

    The only piece of human technology that might address this is a nuclear bomb. I'm not kidding. If they put a nuke down there in the right spot it might seal up the hole. Nothing short of that will work.

    If we can't cap that hole that oil is going to destroy the oceans of the world. It only takes one quart of motor oil to make 250,000 gallons of ocean water toxic to wildlife. Are you starting to get the magnitude of this?

    We're so used to our politicians creating false crises to forward their criminal agendas that we aren't recognizing that we're staring straight into possibly the greatest disaster mankind will ever see. Imagine what happens if that oil keeps flowing until it destroys all life in the oceans of this planet. Who knows how big of a reservoir of oil is down there.

    Not to mention that the oceans are critical to maintaining the proper oxygen level in the atmosphere for human life.

    We're humped. Unless God steps in and fixes this. No human can. You can be sure of that.

Take a look at this animated explanation of the recent oil rig explosion and ensuing spill off the Gulf Coast.  No doubt, this will become one of the largest environmental disasters in world history, not to mention the havoc it will reek on seafood harvests.

How will our industry respond?

http://fohboh.com/forum/topics/us-oil-spill-explained

HOPI PROPHECY: IS THE GULF OIL SPILL THE SEVENTH SIGN?

Read the 7th prophecy

"The Fourth World shall end soon, and the Fifth
World will begin. This the elders everywhere know.
The Signs over many years have been fulfilled, and
so few are left.

"This is the First Sign: We are told of the coming of
the white-skinned men, like Pahana, but not living
like Pahana men who took the land that was not
theirs. And men who struck their enemies with
thunder.

"This is the Second Sign: Our lands will see the
coming of spinning wheels filled with voices. In his
youth, my father saw this prophecy come true with
his eyes -- the white men bringing their families in
wagons across the prairies."

"This is the Third Sign: A strange beast like a
buffalo but with great long horns, will overrun the
land in large numbers. These White Feather saw
with his eyes -- the coming of the white men's
cattle."

"This is the Fourth Sign: The land will be crossed by
snakes of iron."

"This is the Fifth Sign: The land shall be criss-
crossed by a giant spider's web."

"This is the Sixth sign: The land shall be criss-
crossed with rivers of stone that make pictures in
the sun."

"This is the Seventh Sign: You will hear of the sea
turning black, and many living things dying because
of it."

"This is the Eight Sign: You will see many youth,
who wear their hair long like my people, come and
join the tribal nations, to learn their ways and
wisdom.

"And this is the Ninth and Last Sign: You will hear
of a dwelling-place in the heavens, above the earth,
that shall fall with a great crash. It will appear as a
blue star. Very soon after this, the ceremonies of my
people will cease.

"These are the Signs that great destruction is
coming. The world shall rock to and fro. The white
man will battle against other people in other lands -
- with those who possessed the first light of wisdom.
There will be many columns of smoke and fire such
as White Feather has seen the white man make in
the deserts not far from here. Only those which
come will cause disease and a great dying.

"Many of my people, understanding the prophecies,
shall be safe. Those who stay and live in the places
of my people also shall be safe. Then there will be
much to rebuild. And soon -- very soon afterward --
Pahana will return. He shall bring with him the
dawn of the Fifth World. He shall plant the seeds of
his wisdom in their hearts. Even now the seeds are
being planted. These shall smooth the way to the
Emergence into the Fifth World.

"But White Feather shall not see it. I am old and
dying. You -- perhaps will see it. In time, in time..."

---

IZAKOVIC

A massive, unstoppable oil leak could easily lead to the death of the sea in just one or two years. This is one prophecy that may be coming true right before our eyes.  

Sadly, there is a device called an Oil well Shutoff Trigger which Brazil and Norway employ on their offshore rigs that might have prevented this ecological travesty.

The cost of the device? $ 500,000.

"The Deepwater Horizon had a replacement cost of about $560 million,..."

The U.S. considered requiring a remote-controlled shut-off mechanism several
years ago, but drilling companies questioned its cost and effectiveness,
according to the agency overseeing offshore drilling. The agency, the
Interior Department's Minerals Management Service, says it decided the
remote device wasn't needed because rigs had other back-up plans to cut off

a well.

Doug's picture
Doug
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 1 2008
Posts: 2763
Re: Timeline/Stages for Collapse of our Way of Life

Mike

There is a major factual difference between the engineer's account and the animated scenario.  That is whether the oil rig came to rest on top on the well head.  This is the first I've heard of that.  Is there any reliable confirmation or refutation?

Doug

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SagerXX
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Feb 11 2009
Posts: 2120
Re: Timeline/Stages for Collapse of our Way of Life

Doug wrote:

Mike

There is a major factual difference between the engineer's account and the animated scenario.  That is whether the oil rig came to rest on top on the well head.  This is the first I've heard of that.  Is there any reliable confirmation or refutation?

Doug

It's my understanding that the rig came to rest off to the side of the wellhead.

Doug's picture
Doug
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 1 2008
Posts: 2763
Re: Timeline/Stages for Collapse of our Way of Life

I just googled this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deepwater_Horizon

Quote:
Deepwater Horizon sank on April 22, 2010, in water approximately 5,000 feet (1,500 m) deep, and has been located resting on the seafloor approximately 1,300 feet (400 m) (about a quarter of a mile) northwest of the well.

This is not to minimize the scope of the disaster, but just to clarify in my own head what is and isn't possible in fixing it.

Doug

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