The recessions coming to an end! Get your heads out the sand! *Proof*

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cannotaffordit's picture
cannotaffordit
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Re: The recessions coming to an end! Get your heads out ...

OH REALLY?  It's coming to an end, huh?   Well, if that's true, I wonder how long it will take to be over?  Maybe we could ask all those who have lost their jobs and their homes.  Maybe we could ask the government how quickly they'll have all those bail-out funds paid off, so we citizens will be free of that public debt.  Oh, and how quickly will we have the cost of the war(s) paid off ?

Looks to me like this is nothing more than a temporary upsurge, probably the result of the incentive giveaways, and as time goes on, I suspect it will take another big giveaway of borrowed money to keep the upsurge going, or get another one going.

Am I missing something here?  Are the bluebirds gonna start singing again within the next few weeks?  Or will the phony government statistics and the Goldman Sachs controlled markets fool enough folks that they'll jump right back in, just to be obliterated again?

In all honesty, I wish we'd let the economy take its natural course;  let things stabilize, or neutralize, on their own, so we could get back to some kind of predictability that is not influenced by lies from wall street and our government.  Enough with the puff.  "Just give me the facts babe."   And, I mean the REAL facts, not the PR.

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Damnthematrix
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Re: The recessions coming to an end! Get your heads out ...

Yeah, we get this too in Australia....

Access Economics: The worst is over

By Alexandra Kirk for AM

The worst is over: Access Economics says Australia has got away with only a 'small recession' (ABC/AAP)

Just six months ago leading economic forecaster Access Economics was warning everyone to batten down the hatches for the fastest economic slowdown Australia had ever experienced.

Now it says Australia is through the worst of the economic crisis, suffering a "small recession" while most of the world endures a "big one".

While the Government is still forecasting a shrinking economy, Access predicts the economy will grow slightly this financial year.

Access director Chris Richardson credits China's early recovery and what he describes as the "remarkable resilience of Aussie mums" spending more now than when the crisis hit.

But he told AM the pain will persist, with unemployment continuing to rise until late next year - when record low interest rates will come to an end.

"Certainly the wheels could have fallen off the Australian economy in the wake of the collapse of the global banking system last September, and the wheels did fall off a number of other very important economies around the world," he said.

"Unemployment still goes up from here and profits fall further from here and business spending falls away.

"There's still a lot of pain left, but the most dangerous time is over."

Subprime JD's picture
Subprime JD
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Re: The recessions coming to an end! Get your heads out ...

Yes the "recession" is over because leading economic indicators are pointing towards a recovery. Which economic indicators have risen? Consumer confidence: up, stock market: up, business management confidence: up, unemployment: down but a lagging indicator.

Here are a few reasons why the recession will not end for a very long time.

1. Gov issuance of Treasury notes out of control with export orientated countries picking up the tab. How much longer with this happen for?

2. Future unfunded liabilties become present liabilities very soon

3. Major credit losses in Alt A loans, ARM's, Prime, and Commercial Real Estate

4. Continuing job losses in a consumer based service economy is a leading economic indicator. Past jobless recoveries only took place because of increase of credit. The nation is 53 trillion dollars in the hole. Who is going to lever up now, and who can anyways, other then the gov and a few financial institutions?

5. Hostile business environment with excessive regulation, taxation, litigation in the US whereas many other places offer friendly business environments.

Conclusion: no recovery for a loooonngg time. The pain is just beginning. If you believe false gov data then go ahead and believe it so you can feel better. All i see is corporate revenues down 20-30-40% YOY, home sales down 40% YOY, state revenues down at least 20% YOY, auto sales down 40% YOY, but 2nd qtr GDP is projected to be down -1.5% YOY. How this is possible is beyond my imagination.

Enjoy the recovery lol. Oh and Australia is going to get wacked so hard on its head it will be scary. Once China's credit boom blows up as all credit booms blow up it will wreak havoc on Australian commodity exports. Also, the housing bubble in AUS has been propped up by foolish and reckless gov policy. I give China 18-24 months until its bubble bursts. Chinese exports have collapsed so the gov is handing out loans like candy. Bubbles forming in chinese stocks, real estate, and construction. Roads, bridges, tunnels being built like crazy. Eventually, the stimulus money will run out and when it does China will either have to issue stimulus 2 by selling some of its foreign currency reserves to finance it or it will print the difference crashing the Yuan and reaping havoc on chinese citizens and foreign investors. A third option is that the Chinese Politburo does nothing and allows the trade imbalance it has with the US to cure itself naturally. I doubt this will happen as central economic planning is the new fad around the world. Either way its a game of chicken with the central banks of the world.

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Damnthematrix
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Re: The recessions coming to an end! Get your heads out ...

Errrr.....  and you left out Peak Oil!!  Australia will almost certainly be totally out of oil within 3 or 4 years.  I actually expect we'll have shortages within 12 months.  How will everyone drive to work then?  And at what cost?

I totally agree with your assertion that China's in for a BIG crash of its own.  Andt here will be lots of unrest there too, because China is NOT the unified nation we all perceive it to be, but another Yugoslavia, another time bomb ticking away..

Mike

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Subprime JD
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Re: The recessions coming to an end! Get your heads out ...

You really think that peak oil will cause shortages within 12 months?? This global credit crash has caused quite a bit of demand destruction. Also, when the Asian countries slow down demand will plummet even more. Remember, crude oil production was running at full capacity from 2004-2008. In addition, just because AUS has to start importing all its oil doesnt mean that AUS wont be able to buy it on the open market. Japan doesnt have any oil but they consume heaps of it. Peak oil wont be a "major" problem for a while because of demand destruction. The world economy is so weak that every time the prices will spike recessions will occur and the price will fall again. The right side of the oil curve will be much flatter than most peakers assume.

Cheers mate

PS

My wife is from Perth, WA lol

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Re: The recessions coming to an end! Get your heads out ...

The recessions been over for several years.
They can, with confidence, say the recession has ended.

...What they're not making mention of is that the depression is stuck on "full tilt boogie", and shows no signs of stopping until all the money, blow and hookers are spent, snorted or running for the courtrooms and press cameras.

If the words sound crude, they need only be verified by reality.

I have absolutely zero faith in the continuity of our system of economics, government and integrity of our politicians.

Cheers,

Aaron

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mainecooncat
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Re: The recessions coming to an end! Get your heads out ...

bearmarkettrader wrote:

The right side of the oil curve will be much flatter than most peakers assume.

Or, potentially, much steeper than most peakers assume.

This chart appeared on the Oil Drum recently, and Chris brought it up as well.

I'm not throwing my hat in either ring just yet; but I will say that demand destruction -- and the potential long-term lower prices it could presage -- may further suppress production.

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Re: The recessions coming to an end! Get your heads out ...

If the only way we get money into circulation is by borrowing it, wouldn't it be true that the only way the resession could end is by having a lot of people go massively deeper into debt?

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Re: The recessions coming to an end! Get your heads out ...

Recession or Depression......or it was all a bad dream but what really stinks is what Arron said:

I have absolutely zero faith in the continuity of our system of economics, government and integrity of our politicians.

Really a sad state of affairs & will it ever get repaired. I feel the same way.

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Subprime JD
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Re: The recessions coming to an end! Get your heads out ...

Or, potentially, much steeper than most peakers assume.

I dont see how that is possible. Even with demand destruction the price will eventually maintain a high level. After several oil spikes and subsequent recessions as a result thereof there will probably come a point where the price will remain high regardless of the demand pressures of the high price. For many poor countries today the price of copper, steel, nickel, food, and other basic commodities remain high. These nations nevertheless still purchase as much as they can. It will probably be the same way with oil.

The oil sands of Alberta have 150 billion barrels of crude, that is profitable when the PPB is +$50. Production will continue to increase in the north with 4.5 mbd by 2020.

Iraq is sitting pretty with 120 billion proven reserves. They wont fight forever.

Also, natural gas powered vehicles will be making a debut soon. There is pleeentty of that stuff going around.

Bottom line, i believe that finite energy in a economic system that requires infinite growth is a major issue that will be dealth with in our lifetime. However, the oil shortage/ urban chaos scenario does not take into account very important facts. Always argue the facts.

cannotaffordit's picture
cannotaffordit
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Re: The recessions coming to an end! Get your heads out ...

bearmarkettrader said:  "Also, natural gas powered vehicles will be making a debut soon. There is pleeentty of that stuff going around."    

I think we have all read about the enormous volume of nat gas, but my question is this:  How much of the oil we use is actually burned up in vehicles, vs. how much is used for a million other things?  Sincere question.

Damnthematrix's picture
Damnthematrix
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Re: The recessions coming to an end! Get your heads out ...

What enormous amounts of gas...?  Ever heard of Peak Gas?  Just Google it...  might only be 2 or 3 years away!

Mike

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Damnthematrix
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Re: The recessions coming to an end! Get your heads out ...

I stupidly posted the reply to this comment on the wrong thread......  so here it is again.

Well, how about this:

Convert to LPG now: former Holden expert


A leading car engineering expert has warned Australia could face an energy crunch that would dwarf the oil crises of the 1970s.

A former advanced engineering chief with General Motors Holden, Professor Laurie Sparke, says Australians should start converting their petrol-driven cars to LPG.

Professor Sparke has told Radio National that when the global economic downturn is over, demand for oil is going to far outstrip supply and prices will go through the roof.

"As soon as the countries that use large amounts of oil for their industry - China, India, Japan, USA - recover, demand will exceed supply," he said.

"There are signs already that the economy in China is starting to pick up and Japan's picking up, and already this year we've seen the price of oil double from January to July.

"So my expectation is within the next five years, we're going to have trouble."

I actually heard this guy on ABC NewsRadio last week, and he said Auistralia wouldn't be able to buy ANY oil, at ANY price within 4 years.....  and I agree with him.  Read this piece I wrote last year or the year before:

http://econews.org.au/peak-energy-and-li...

BTW, Sparke's assertion that we should all convert to LPG is baffling, because.....  LPG comes out of OIL!!!

MIke

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grl
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Re: The recessions coming to an end! Get your heads out ...

ummm.... to this post and all others. Thank (whatever higher power - so Jason won't edit me) for the Internet. I am just going to live my life and check back in six months or so. Time is the ultimate truth teller. Last time I checked, the  Jan 2009 (or thereabouts) posts were just ... well .... way off. It's slow mo, take advantage of that ....love and live your life and get a grip people. It's all no bfd.

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Kurosawa
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Re: The recessions coming to an end! Get your heads out ...

Hope people got my sarcastic undertone...

Subprime JD's picture
Subprime JD
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Re: The recessions coming to an end! Get your heads out ...

I know what you mean man. Sloooooooowwww motion decline in the standard of living. Save, make money, work hard, and plan for the LONG term

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