I agree with everything you've said except #7. Here you make an assumption that the consumer will not go back to buying non-essential goods because he/she feels poor. If this indeed is the case, then your conclusion that there will be too many dollars chasing too few goods seems to make sense. But living at or just beyond one's means is a deeply ingrained part of American culture that can easily resume as soon as the media concludes that we're headed down the path of financial recovery.
My theory is that if a critical mass is reached in the number of people which experience severe pain (losing a home to foreclosure, filing bankruptcy, etc.), then your assumption is correct. Enough people will not participate in the next consumption cycle and hence fewer non-essential goods will be produced leaving an excess of dollars in the economy. But, if this critical mass is not reached then we will see a resumption of consumption of non-essential goods and hence the dollars to goods equation will remain relatively balanced and therefore only mild inflation.

FLAME AWAY!