Is it just me or is TSHTF feeling more imminent?

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Arthur Vibert
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Re: Is it just me or is TSHTF feeling more imminent?

I tend to agree with Chris Kresser about this, though I suspect the "total breakdown horizon" is nearer than 150 years. Here's why:

Our civilization is highly complex - more so than any previous civilization. Because we have the ability to react virtually instantaneously through electronic communications everything we do is based on our ability to do this which results in an efficient system, but also one that is highly dependent on many layers of functionality. 

Orlov has pointed out that efficiency is great when everything is working, but when parts break down the system quality can degrade quickly, resulting in even more failures resulting in more degredation. Once this gets started it is very difficult to arrest. The former Soviet Union was already pretty inefficient so its citizens had taken steps to do whatever was necessary to feed themselves and supply themselves with necessities, since their government was incapable of doing it.

Not so here. As has been pointed out ad nauseum on this site and others, there is a 3 day food supply in the local supermarkets. If the food transportation system is compromised then we could find ourselves without food very quickly. We expect that the food will be there because it has always been. But it ain't necessarily so.

So how can things break down? Well, they already are. The danger is that we act like the proverbial toad, where we leap out of the water if we're dropped in when it's boiling but are happy to sit there as it slowly warms up until we're boiled alive. In my view the greatest danger is not a sudden "plunge into disaster," but rather the slow accumulation of problems until it's too late to do anything about them.

For example, I live in California. As everyone is no doubt aware at this point, the state is a fiscal disaster area. There are cutbacks in the schools - teachers and admin staff being fired - because of this. Much of it is driven by the steep reduction in tax revenues because of the housing crisis, though there are plenty of other issues as well, many of them driven by the fact that the Dems and Reps are so blinded by party ideology that they are incapable of seeing their way through to uselful solutions. 

Meanwhile, tent cities are starting to spring up. There's a big one outside of Sacramento - the state capitol. I notice that more and more retail stores are closing in our (quaint) downtown area - and not being re-leased. This means even less tax revenue. Layoffs, of course also contribute to the reduction in tax revenue. I was interested to note that even though we get 85% of our water from local reservoirs, it requires electrical power to pump it to consumers - even though it is up in the mountains and we are down in the valleys. 

I see the system becoming more and more fragile around me. As time goes on it becomes even more so. Little pieces are breaking down. Soon it will be bigger pieces. Because our civilization is interconnected iin a way that no other has ever been, I feel we could reach a tipping point that will push us over the edge - and we won't see it coming, because we learn to accommodate every little breakdown gradually.

The point of this stream-of-conciousness screed is that it is important to remain vigilant, to be aware that eventually, the water WILL boil. Be ready to jump BEFORE it gets to that point. Don't be lulled by the slow-motion nature of this crisis. Of course, the challenge is that we don't really know what form things will take. So it's important to be aware, pay attention, reach out to others of like mind, have an idea of where you can go if you need to leave your area. Consider caching items that will help you arrive at your destination on the route/s you would take.

It sounds crazy, of course. But look around - isn't it already getting crazy out there?

Read a book yesterday that chronicles one man's journey from newby to fully prepared - "Emergency" by Neal Strauss. It's a little goofy in some parts, but what I found interesting was his voyage of awareness. It's also interesting that it's available (and prominently displayed) at places like Border's. It's definitely in the air.

Arthur 

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Re: Is it just me or is TSHTF feeling more imminent?

Hey Arthur,

I completely agree that it might not take 150 years for things to completely unravel.  I can't even rule out a dramatic collapse (i.e. Mad Max style) that takes place over a few years.  I just think it's highly unlikely.

What I do believe is that there's still time to make important changes.  Our view of how things will unfold is significant, because it affects the choices we'll make in response.  If I think we're headed for Mad Max in a few years, my choices will be different than if I think we're in for a "long descent" that will take place over decades.

I don't have much doubt that we're facing very hard times in the coming years.  And yet I also believe in the wisdom behind the saying "with every crisis comes opportunity".  I suspect that a significant number of people will find that they area actually happier when they make the changes we're being invited to make, even though they'll have less.  I recently read an interview with an elderly lady who said the Great Depression was the happiest time of her life.  Why?  Because people depended on each other and she felt more connected to her friends and family than she ever did after that period.

All we can do is take it one moment at a time.  It's important for me to remember that.  We don't live in some imagined future.  We live right here, right now.  And while I think it's crucial to stay informed about what's happening around us, I also think it's important to remember to continue living our lives... having fun, spending time with loved ones, taking walks in the woods or on the beach, breathing deeply, expressing our creativity, or whatever it is that brings you joy and makes life worth living.

That, more than anything else, is what I'm trying to communicate here.  

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Re: Is it just me or is TSHTF feeling more imminent?

I live in a small, poor, rural community that hasn't really felt any effects of the financial collapse yet, except more for sale signs in front of houses that aren't selling.  People are pretty self sufficient and most are pretty well armed with weapons that are used for hunting.  Not much else.  There is the usual contingent of gun nuts who don't pay a whole lot of attention to what's legal and what isn't.  There are all kinds of personnel weapons readily available on the black market where some of your and my neighbors regularly buy and sell.

If and when tshtf I'm pretty sure this community will come together in a hurry.  And, the nice thing is that we already have many of the resources necessary to take care of ourselves and each other.  After living here for a couple decades, I am continually surprised how everyone comes out for any kind of laudable community cause.  The local Amish have auctions to raise money when one of them needs expensive treatment in a hospital.  They always raise the money, mostly from the "English."  Our HS baseball team decided they want to go down to South Carolina next month for a tournament to kick off the season.  The goal was $8,000 but they raised over $11,000 with a couple fundraisers.  Even poor people (most of my neighbors) open their wallets and hearts for others.

As I've noted on this site before, this nonsense about arming ourselves against some kind of Mad Max world is largely a fevered daydream by testosterone poisoned adolescent imaginations.  The truth is that I feel more comfortable having a few guns around to protect my family from the yahoo factor.  When times get tough, there may be a few predators roaming around and its comforting knowing I, and my neighbors, have a chance of protecting ourselves against them. 

But, the notion of standing up against our military is bizarre in the extreme.  If it should ever come to pass that our military is turns against us, the only prayer we collectively have is that the military itself or it's commanders will recoil in disgust at the very idea.  If they don't and the military comes for us, all the legal and illegal arms we as citizens have will not protect us.  The military is much...much...much better armed.  A single F16 could wipe out my community in a couple passes.  To believe that we as citizens could stand up to that kind of power is ludicrous.

So, you might want to start thinking about other ways of appealing to the better judgment of the nation's leaders if things get that desperate.

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Re: Is it just me or is TSHTF feeling more imminent?

Doug,

Again, you've managed to relay a great opinion (and my wife agrees with you), but c'mon... you're above the buzzwords and politically charged hyperbole.

Using terms like "gun nuts", and "poisoned adolescence" is accusatory, ignorant (seeing as I doubt you have any quantifiable way of defining what these terms mean, their severity and subjectivity) and just inflammatory. You don't hear stuff like "Last night, 602 million guns did nothing last night" on the evening news. You hear the sensationalism.

You said:

Quote:
As I've noted on this site before, this nonsense about arming ourselves against some kind of Mad Max world is largely a fevered daydream by testosterone poisoned adolescent imaginations.

To which I reply;
American Revolution
The Overthrow of the Whites in Russia
Boxer Rebellion
Soviet invasion of Afganistan
American Invasion of Viet Nam
American Invasion of Iraq
American Invasion of Afghanistan
Ad nauseum

The answer to significantly greater firepower is to employ asymmetrical warfare - attack where your enemy is complaicent and weak. In each case above, a technological disparity was "bridged" through a few things; tenacity, firm belief in a cause, and unpredictable strikes.

I'd also like to mention that our "success" in the latter mentioned conflicts is largely due to our ability to apply Close Air Support (CAS) in areas with little collateral damage. Obviously, surgical strikes in American cities involving F16's is a logistic nightmare. In addition to generating more victims and perpetuating the insurgency, it's far too costly in collateral damage.

Your next statement;

Quote:
But, the notion of standing up against our military is bizarre in the extreme.  If it should ever come to pass that our military is turns against us, the only prayer we collectively have is that the military itself or it's commanders will recoil in disgust at the very idea.  If they don't and the military comes for us, all the legal and illegal arms we as citizens have will not protect us.  The military is much...much...much better armed.  A single F16 could wipe out my community in a couple passes.  To believe that we as citizens could stand up to that kind of power is ludicrous.

I don't believe we'll face a threat from the U.S. military unless we have an absolute collapse on the federal level, causing balkanization and what will essentially equate to "warlords" - probably mostly made of former soldiers.
This is a distinct possibility, as the arms, desperation and lack of ethics are either present, or would materialize in the case of a rapid social distegration. Various potential situations exist, but I think this is the "biggest" threat from our military. If you've not done any research into gang activity in the Army and USMC - I suggest you do so. It's scary - and I don't use that term lightly.

Without changing the tone of this thread to principles of warfare, I just want to bring up for conversation the idea that this collapse will be completely different than the last for several socio-political reasons:
- People now lack skills
- People now lack personal ethics
- People now are far quicker to resort to violence
- Our population is significantly greater (141 million[estmd] vs. 355 Million - an estimated 7 million died; doing the math, that's 6% of the population - which today would be 21 million) - I'm terrible at math, double check my numbers.
- We now have rapid transit between urban and rural areas
- We had significantly more farms that were significantly less dependant on fuel, chemicals, hybridization, and antibiotics
- With the aforementioned things, the "low hanging fruit" (Fish, wildlife, livestock, farms etc) will be targeted out of desperation an likely accosted by force, rapid transit, and an estimated 21 million starving refugees - if numbers don't "grow", but only stay "consistent" with the last one.

That said, I support weapons that are proporitionally more powerful to fight the proportionally greater threats.

Cheers brother, good to hear from you!

Aaron

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Re: Is it just me or is TSHTF feeling more imminent?

Arthur, what did you think of the Neal Strauss book, "Emergency: This Book Will Save Your Life"?  I was thinking of getting it and was looking for an opinion/recommendation. 

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Re: Is it just me or is TSHTF feeling more imminent?

Aaron, don't forget the often used ploy - a great military power in financial straits with the clock ticking... what better way to divert the nervous energy of a restless population beset by difficulties than to find a way to direct it outward, away from the home front - lest that energy and attention be turned toward TPTB.... It just requires the right provocation or trigger... Probably not too hard to arrange in a pinch.

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Re: Is it just me or is TSHTF feeling more imminent?

Aaron Moyer wrote:

<snip>

- Our population is significantly greater (141 million[estmd] vs. 355 Million - an estimated 7 million died; doing the math, that's 6% of the population - which today would be 21 million) - I'm terrible at math, double check my numbers.

Aaron

Aaron,

I can't resist your challenge:  Wink

141 million times 5 percent equals 7.05 million

306 million times 5 percent equals 15.3 million

http://factfinder.census.gov/home/saff/main.html?_lang=en

U.S. Population Clock


04:40 GMT (EST+5) Mar 17, 2009


306,023,562
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Re: Is it just me or is TSHTF feeling more imminent?

Crazyhorse -

To be honest I speed read it at Border's so I didn't actually buy it. It's about 15 bucks.

Would I actually pay 15 bucks for it? No. One is led to believe that the book has all kinds of survival tips, and while it does have a few, the bulk of the book is the story of Strauss' voyage from being totally ignorant of all survival matters to being able to track, survive in the wild, shoot a pistol accurately in a combat situation, etc. You won't learn how to do these things from the book, but you might be inspired to go out and learn these things for yourself.

Strauss spent a lot of time and money - though he is a journalist so I'm guessing that a lot of this was either a tax writeoff or he was paid to do it in order to write the story - being trained all over the country in various fighting arts - knife fighting, Krav Maga, handling a gun, various survival arts, etc. It's interesting to read about, and he gives the names of the individuals and organizations he trains with so you could conceivably track them down as well. But it's not that hard to do the research yourself. If you live near a bookstore you could do what I did and just go read it there. Bring a notepad and jot down things of interest.

I guess, to sum it up, it's a good story but not particularly good information.

Arthur

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Re: Is it just me or is TSHTF feeling more imminent?

"And unfortunately that now includes Australia...I wouldn't consider it
such a haven given it's debt crisis is just as big as ours and it no
longer has citizens since its "subjects" are victims of UK-like gun
control."

WRONG.

Australia's debt is NOT as bad as yours...  our government was debt free until they sent cheques in the mail for stimulus!  and we're only talking 42 billion dollars...  Furthermore, we won't be facing a second wave of sub-prime resets.

Victims?  Are you kidding me?  The ONLY good thing our last Prime Miniscule did was remove thousands of guns from our society, and I certainly do NOT feel like a victim.  I wouldn't live in the US now in a fit BECAUSE you all have guns.

Mike 

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Re: Is it just me or is TSHTF feeling more imminent?

Sounds like my town Chris!

I've just finished another newsletter, and I sent it to Chris M.  Hopefully someone will upload it somewhere for visitors to have a look at.  We have decided to bite the bullet and hire the local hall for a crash course to run from 10AM 'til it's finished with a lunch break....

Keep fingers crossed.

BTW, I'm getting very twitchy too....  I think our greatest problem will turn out to be population.  Never before have we had a collapse that will involve this many people, people whose expectations of life are very high, and will be truly shattered....  expect lots of pissed off citizens on the streets soon.

Mike 

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Re: Is it just me or is TSHTF feeling more imminent?

"Our civilization is highly complex - more so than any previous
civilization. Because we have the ability to react virtually
instantaneously
through electronic communications everything we do is based on our
ability to do this which results in an efficient system, but also one
that is highly dependent on many layers of functionality."

Arthur......  that's precisely what will cause everything to collapse quite quickly!

It's the very complexity that causes the Matrix to be very fragile.  Electronic communications rely on fossil electricity, which relies on people being able to drive to work, not just to keep the power stations going, but also maintain the system of powerlines etc going.  We only need one thunderstorm here for thousands of households to lose power....  it happened yesterday!  and their internet, not to mention those cordless bat phones so many people like to have which rely on a base station plugged into a wall socket all went out too!

Imagine if fuel was scarce and the emergency authorities couldn't fix the downed powerlines for days or weeks....?  Without power, traffic lights don't work, gas pumps at gas stations don't work either...  how would anyone get to work?  And if you live somewhere like NY your toilet probably wouldn't flush either, in fact the sewerage system would back up.....  talk about TSHTF!

Erik, if I were you, I'd high tail it out of whatever city it is you live in, because I don't know what makes you think you'll be able to escape in a hurry, even if the power was out for three days.  By which time the supermarket shelves would all be empty, and most of the refrigerated food would be off.  You'd have to cycle out....  I hope you're fit!

Cheers.

Mike 

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Re: Is it just me or is TSHTF feeling more imminent?

Arthur...... that's precisely what will cause everything to collapse quite quickly!

I know - that was supposed to be my point!

Arthur

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Re: Is it just me or is TSHTF feeling more imminent?

Thanks Arthur.  That is exactly the information I was looking for on the book.  Fortunately, I live no where near a bookstore.  We never 'got into' a city, so we are already out and preparing/gardening/stocking food...  Therefore it is hard to do research at a bookstore like you suggest.  Usually just use the Internet, but this time just couldn't find what I wanted to know.  So again thanks for the review.

Arthur Vibert wrote:

Orlov has pointed out that efficiency is great when everything is
working, but when parts break down the system quality can degrade
quickly, resulting in even more failures resulting in more degredation.
Once this gets started it is very difficult to arrest. The former
Soviet Union was already pretty inefficient so its citizens had taken
steps to do whatever was necessary to feed themselves and supply
themselves with necessities, since their government was incapable of
doing it.

Not so here. As has been pointed out ad nauseum on this site and
others, there is a 3 day food supply in the local supermarkets. If the
food transportation system is compromised then we could find ourselves
without food very quickly. We expect that the food will be there
because it has always been. But it ain't necessarily so.

In your area in CA, this may be the case.  But I have noticed lately that around here (rural Midwest) a lot of people (mostly babyboomer and older generation) seem to be aware of the economic problems we are facing.  I admit I have not ask outright what they are doing to prepare, if anything.  But at least it seems that they are at the first step - awareness. 

Also almost everyone around here puts out at minimum a small garden and most put out more than they can eat.  I have noticed considerably more chicken coops, small livestock, and general 'let's get back to small farming' attitude in the last year or so.  To support this theory I have been checking the local farm stores and even though it is only the middle of March, they cannot keep the baby chickens in supply (kind of like the sold out ammo situation).  May not seem like much, but my intuition says that there must be others around preparing.  Still I know that even in rural areas like this, for every one preparing, there are probably three, four, or more who are blissfully unaware.

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Re: Is it just me or is TSHTF feeling more imminent?

Arming yourself for an uprising against the government....ridiculous. Comments here about jet strikes in US cities..?????  I would suggest to those who read this.....like everything else consider the source....this IS fear mongering & should not be encouraged.

 IF TSJTF that bad then you'll be begging the govt & the military to protect you from roaming elements of organized crime & gangs.  Just too bad this site wouldn't be working to see some people eat their hats...  I would really advise looking at what is a more probable outcome than planning some sort of 'Red-dawn' -esq type of 'battle techniques'

Just my two...

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Re: Is it just me or is TSHTF feeling more imminent?

Chris_m,

You said:

Quote:
Arming yourself for an uprising against the government....ridiculous. Comments here about jet strikes in US cities..?????  I would suggest to those who read this.....like everything else consider the source....this IS fear mongering & should not be encouraged.

Please read the post in context.
The objective of that comment was to relate American warfighting strategy and success to it's primary contributer: Close Air Support. I don't believe this will be, or could be used in modern American cities - so I'm not entirely sure where you're getting the "fear mongering" bit - as I was trying to highlight how unlikely this is with strategic imperatives.

In fact, the more I read your comments, the less I believe you actually read my post, even though it's fairly obvious you're challenging the things in it.

Sam - Thanks my friend! I appreciate your more "accurate" numbers!
We have a lot to think about - and those represent a "best case" scenario in my opinion.

Cheers!

Aaron

PS

Quote:
IF TSJTF that bad then you'll be begging the govt & the military to protect you from roaming elements of organized crime & gangs


 
I'd rather die on my feet doing for myself than on my knees begging for anything.
That mentality is the reason we're in the fix we're in. Helpless people incapable of facing adversity without their knees knocking.

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Re: Is it just me or is TSHTF feeling more imminent?

I seem to have assimilated the crash course differently than other people.  Hence I have much rosier, smiley-face, predictions for the future...

My understanding is the current economic recession is due mainly to the housing bubble and the fall of the financial house of cards built in around it.  With all the money pumped into the financial institutions in the near term, say next year, things may actually get better.

Further out this government will likely realize (10 years from now? 20?) that there is no way the massive amount of debt will ever be repaid.  At this time along with the other countries on the verge of sovereign default there will be a renegotiation.  I am optimistic China will accept the terms although if they don't they will invade.  Not literally maybe but it may be a good idea to learn Chinese.

There may have to be separate negotiations between the Chinese and Arabs.The Arabs will not get as good a deal because the major source of imported oil will be Canada.

I think there will still be oil and less than  $100 / gallon.  We will finally see production of electric cars although by then with other resources too expensive fewer cars will be produced.  This will be good for the environment.

I don't predict the national guard will be firing on people or anything like that.  Even with 20% unemployment in LA things have been pretty quiet there.  Most guns were bought recently I believe to protect from home invasion.  Someone can let me know if I'm correct, more pistols than assault rifles?  However, the National Guard has fired on civilians in the past (the Ludlow massacre, Kent state).

As rosy as this scenario is it may still be a good idea to grow one's own garden and keep chickens in the back yard...

Thanks,

Definition of a pessimist:  same as optimist only more realistic.

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Re: Is it just me or is TSHTF feeling more imminent?

Aaron,  I think we'll need to agree to disagree on our views of what this 'revolution' should look like but I'll bite one more time.  I don't want to get into a personal 'bashfest' as I'm sure my vocabulary cannot compete with yours but hey I'm bored. 

 Again don't take this personal but some points that you mention above demonstrate an 'unclear' & extremely oversimplified understanding of the truly underlying factors behind events which you bring up.  I'm not as adept witht the quote tool so bear with me...

Aaron Moyer wrote:

You said:

Quote:
As I've noted on this site before, this nonsense about arming ourselves against some kind of Mad Max world is largely a fevered daydream by testosterone poisoned adolescent imaginations.

To which I reply;
American Revolution
The Overthrow of the Whites in Russia
Boxer Rebellion
Soviet invasion of Afganistan
American Invasion of Viet Nam
American Invasion of Iraq
American Invasion of Afghanistan
Ad nauseum

The answer to significantly greater firepower is to employ asymmetrical warfare - attack where your enemy is complaicent and weak. In each case above, a technological disparity was "bridged" through a few things; tenacity, firm belief in a cause, and unpredictable strikes.

I'd also like to mention that our "success" in the latter mentioned conflicts is largely due to our ability to apply Close Air Support (CAS) in areas with little collateral damage. Obviously, surgical strikes in American cities involving F16's is a logistic nightmare. In addition to generating more victims and perpetuating the insurgency, it's far too costly in collateral damage.

-

I agree with your 'asymmetrical warfare' comment but I caution that you may want to review your 'escapist mentality' comment earlier if you consider your statement a 'plan of action'.  Factors affecting many of the conflicts above (too many to mention them all but.. USSR vs Afghan (CIA training & stinger missles) Nam - Soviet backing.  Iraq is a tastless issue to comment on.  & (current Afghan...I'm not sure if you've been there but in context of how you discuss ".."success".." I HOPE you know what your talking about.) 

Throwing out terms like 'surgical strikes' & and 'logistic nightmare' suggest (to me) a superficial level of understanding.  Where I have my main issue is that you seem to use a lot of words which to the layman may seem 'thoughtful' but to me (not a layman) the implications or inferrances behind what you say seem 'fear mongering'.  Then again I'm probably just overthinking it.

While I do strongly agree that any military needs to be kept in check I guess my purpose here is to provide some 'balance' to some opinions being expressed here & remind everyone that these are all opinions (mine included)

About your quote....

"I'd rather die on my feet doing for myself than on my knees begging for anything.
That mentality is the reason we're in the fix we're in. Helpless people incapable of facing adversity without their knees knocking." 

 I do applaud your resolve & I guess 'begging' was too strong a word.  I would simply say that if your house were on fire you could not put out the flames on your own.  I hope your 'skills' are up to the task & your community is as strong as it would need to be. 

A few good quotes to end it....pay particular attention to the last one.

"No atheists in foxholes"

-or-

Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed. This world in arms is not spending money alone. It is spending the sweat of its laborers, the genius of its scientists, the hopes of its children. This is not a way of life at all in any true sense. Under the clouds of war, it is humanity hanging on a cross of iron.

Dwight Eisenhower April 16, 1953

or

"It is the soldier, not the reporter, Who has given us freedom of the press.
It is the soldier, not the poet, Who has given us freedom of speech.
It is the soldier, not the organizer, Who has given us the freedom to demonstrate.
It is the soldier, Who salutes the flag, Who serves beneath the flag,
And whose coffin is draped by the flag, Who allows the protestor to burn the flag.

- Father Dennis Edward O'Brian, USMC

Ok I'm done....thanks for the oppourtunity to write it,  If anything I feel better.

Best of luck

 

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Re: Is it just me or is TSHTF feeling more imminent?

Chris_M,

Again, I feel like we're not making a connection somewhere. I'm not suggesting there should even be a revolution - let alone what it should look like. I'm projecting that based on our current deficiencies, we're more likely to have a more severe depression this time around when compared to the last.

So, when approaching your statements to reply, I'm not even sure where to start... Also, nothing in your posts is inflammatory or rude - no worries on that front.

You said:

Quote:
 agree with your 'asymmetrical warfare' comment but I caution that you may want to review your 'escapist mentality' comment earlier if you consider your statement a 'plan of action'. 

I don't consider this statement a "plan of action", I consider it a "function" in an equation.
Are you implying that escapism is a cornerstone of asymmetrical warfare?
That may have been true in older conflicts (Viet Nam and before) but modern insurgencies are increasingly using the urban theater of operations in order to make actions more dangerous and complicated for the invading force. The idea of "escaping into the woods" to fight the facists like a Hemingway novel doesn't make any sense in the modern world.
Maybe we can elaborate on what this means to a "collapsed" world.

Quote:
Throwing out terms like 'surgical strikes' & and 'logistic nightmare' suggest (to me) a superficial level of understanding.  Where I have my main issue is that you seem to use a lot of words which to the layman may seem 'thoughtful' but to me (not a layman) the implications or inferrances behind what you say seem 'fear mongering'.

Perhaps.
As a person who is "not a layman", how do you figure that American Military forces conducting MOUT against American Citizens (an unlikely scenario) to be anything other than a logistical nightmare?
Logistics may be the wrong word - Intelligence nightmare suit you better? I'm not the most experienced guy in the world - so I'm certainly open to explainations as to how this wouldn't generate a civil war - thus making it a nightmare by the original posters words.

Also, if CAS is not intended to be "surgical", please explain this to me. It is my understanding (as someone who has been trained to assist in the co-ordination of airstrikes) that precision is of the utmost importance - especially in the urban battlefield.

Back to the original topic - TS hitting TF - I think we're far more likely to see a continuation in the current global trends; reference Africa: Not enough food, too many people, too little skill, too much reliance on violence.
They're a "collapsed" society. Certain regions are "more" stable than others, but there is no pretense of Western civility.
I think we can look to them to see where we are headed if we maintain our current reliance on gadgetry, fossil fuels and cheap foreign labor.

My basic assumption is that in a nation without a federal government, our military would fracture and essentially turn tribal. Guns and resources in the hands of the citizens can make a "soft" target into a hard target - if those factions were desperate enough to become hostile. Which is speculative.

In terms of skills and community - they will never be good enough.

Thanks for sharing your thoughts, Cheers!

Aaron

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gregroberts
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Re: Is it just me or is TSHTF feeling more imminent?

chris_m 

"No atheists in foxholes"

What this implies is that a belief in some form of the supernatural requires you being scared beyond rational thought?

"No invisable friends in Las Vegas Casinos" Too busy drinking,gambling, and other plasures of the flesh to worry too much about a supernatural being.

Annoying

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Re: Is it just me or is TSHTF feeling more imminent?

First off...Greg you are taking the quote too literally.  Nothing to do with religious beliefs. 

Aaron,after your last post I think we're closer than previous.  I agree with many things you say about this being a lot worse than what we're beign fed but some of your points I find a bit extreme.

Just to clarify...'escapism' has more to do with your head than your feet.  ie....it's not literally running away but rather 'fantasy' based thinking.  & I have now clue what 'function of an equation" means.

You obviously have basis in your statements but your 'terminology' seems off ...to me.  I've been on the pointy end of affairs in these matters & 'surgical' is a term not used (by my peers anyway)..more by CNN or FOX.  'precision' would be a better term (as you've used).  There are so many other variables (for those reading) like LOAC & Lawful orders & ROE's...etc.  I would suggest that discussions of these natures should be put on the conspiracy threads.

 As far as....

"My basic assumption is that in a nation without a federal government, our military would fracture and essentially turn tribal. Guns and resources in the hands of the citizens can make a "soft" target into a hard target - if those factions were desperate enough to become hostile. Which is speculative. "

I'm very glad you made the last statement, but I'm not sure speculative is a strong enough statement.  You're talking about societal collapse not governmental & I personally think time spent thinking this scenario out could better be spent ...say ....digging for gold in my back yard.

 I go back to what Eisenhower said..economic turmoil (poor & hungry) doesn't get resolved with more & bigger guns.  A.Forces being trained to aid civil power for unrest (just keep it peaceful) & Z.the fracturing of the military into 'hostile factions' attacking peaceful citizens are miles & miles apart.

I don't hate guns (for true self protection & shooting dangerous and delicious animals) but I see it as a mini cold war of sorts. MAD...if he has a big gun then I get a bigger one ...if he has 10 then I buy 100...where does it end....in financial ruin for both.

I think everyone should be allowed to have all the guns they want BUT 10% of what they pay to buy them gets donated to charity & releif organizations (both Fed & public pay).  I bet even at 10:1 you'd run out of reasons to buy guns. 

I don't think our society has evolved anywhere near enough that we don't need weapons but I question the rational behind some of the more conspiracy theorists out there.....

Gotta run...good chat

 

 

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Re: Is it just me or is TSHTF feeling more imminent?

Chris,

I see where we're "breaking down" on our communications.
Just for what it's worth, I try to steer clear of military nomanclature and phrases because this is a public forum, and the common acronyms, lingo and verbage used in the military can be pretty dizzying for a person who isn't, or hasn't been in. If you and I were talking in uniform, you'd probably get a different tone. From the sounds of it, I'd probably be saluting you as well.

OK - on to the good stuff!

Quote:
I'm very glad you made the last statement, but I'm not sure speculative is a strong enough statement.  You're talking about societal collapse not governmental & I personally think time spent thinking this scenario out could better be spent ...say ....digging for gold in my back yard.

I agree with you that speculative isn't a strong enough word. However, it's worth considering, if for no other reason, so we can reverse engineer the problem. That said, I don't believe a societal collapse is really worth the considering, as so long as we have a federal government - things will stabilize.

Insofar as a situation where the government becomes so corrupt that a revolution takes place, well... that's not something I care to get into. Really. I just want my peace. That said, the Romans said it best: "Se vis pacem, parabellum".

Quote:
I think everyone should be allowed to have all the guns they want BUT 10% of what they pay to buy them gets donated to charity & releif organizations (both Fed & public pay).  I bet even at 10:1 you'd run out of reasons to buy guns. 

Your idea about charity makes sense, and I agree with the first sentence.
However, charity and relief cannot cure antipathy, sociopathy or mania. Those things will always exist as a component of our species. 

I believe that warriorship should involve community outreach. That to truly be a force of liberty and truly dedicate yourself to a cause, you can't have an "us and them" mentality build in. There has to be a very real, very powerful connection between the citizenry and military.

Finally, you said:

Quote:
Just to clarify...'escapism' has more to do with your head than your feet.  ie....it's not literally running away but rather 'fantasy' based thinking.  & I have now clue what 'function of an equation" means.

Agree - and that was what I was trying to get at.
Mentally preparing and physically acting are the "opposite" of shrugging and saying "eh, I'll deal with the problems when they get here" (not saying that's what Erik said, just used for the purpose of illustration)

Looking forward to more replies!

Aaron

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Re: Is it just me or is TSHTF feeling more imminent?

chris_m wrote:
I think everyone should be allowed to have all the guns they want BUT 10% of what they pay to buy them gets donated to charity & releif organizations (both Fed & public pay).  I bet even at 10:1 you'd run out of reasons to buy guns. 

According to the (US) National Firearms Act of 1934: Section 2 of the act levies taxes of $500 a year on importers and manufacturers, $200 on dealers and $300 year on pawnbrokers. Section 3 imposes a special stamp tax of $200 on every transfer of a (Class II/NFA) firearm.  (note these taxes have increased in the new version)

Although Federal Court (Murdock vs. Pennsylvania 319 US 105 [1942]) and Supreme Court (Follett vs. Town of McCormick, S.C., 321 U.S. 573 [1944]) both established and confirmed that a Constitutional Right (i.e. 2nd Amendment right to own and bear arms) could not be taxed, nor require a fee/license/registration -- we still have sales tax (all weapon & ammunition purchases), NFA tax and assorted fees for licensing and registration (mostly NFA weapons or carry permits).

So, where is all that tax & fee money going to besides "charity & relief organizations" by Federal, State and Local authorities? Gun owners are already paying for the "privilege" of exercising our Constitutional Right... it's not our fault if the collecting agency isn't using the money "appropriately".

Why should one person be forced to give up their Constitutional Right to support another person's Socialist Entitlement?

Would you accept that your right to a fair and speedy trial by an impartial jury of peers with adequate council (i.e. your 6th Amendment Right) was tossed out or required a high fee/tax just so there was enough money in the coffers to dole out Food Stamps and run Soup Kitchens?

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Re: Is it just me or is TSHTF feeling more imminent?

Hmmm... I see "escapism" and "escapist mentality" thrown around a lot lately, so let's break out my handy-dandy dictionary (again):

Escapism: habitual diversion of the mind to purely imaginative activity or entertainment as an escape from reality or routine

Escapist Mentality: a preponderance for and preference toward escapism rather than action and reality-based decisions

So, in essence, escapism is hiding from reality in fantasy. Those people who are actively preparing to bug out or defend themselves from a possible outcome are not escapist -- they are acting upon their perception of reality and future potential realities. Whether the outcome they are preparing for will actually come to pass or has a high probability to occur is totally incidental. While I believe a Mad Max scenario is unlikely, it is still possible... so anyone acting in preparation for such a scenario is not indulging in escapism.

Given what's happening all around us, it's the people blithely ignoring the reality of our current situation and keep the illusion that everything is/will be fine are the ones indulging in escapist mentality.   

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Re: Is it just me or is TSHTF feeling more imminent?

Plickety, I enjoy being on a website with someone with your clarity of thought, your fortitude to see reality and take responsibility for your own life, your willingness to consider probabilities, risks, etc.  We're so programmed in the US to go along with the masses and let the collective opinion rule our lives, anybody who steps out of the paradigm for a second freaks out the masses "how could you think that!?  that's nuts!  Katie Couric told me people like you are nuts!"  

Anybody who faithfully believes 100% in a particular violent, conspiratorial "mad max" outcome is thinking too narrowly.  But likewise, anybody who faithfully believes 100% that our govt would never turn on its people is also thinking too narrowly...too stuck in the mass programming we've lived with our whole lives.  

I'll preface this by pointing out that I'm NOT saying Obama/Bush/Clinton are Hitler.  But the people who are sitting passively assuming nothing "mad max" could ever happen would've fit quite well into pre-war German culture where everybody sat back passively watching the stuff Hitler was doing (outlawing guns, building a homeland security infrastructure, gearing up for war, building a domestic security team, mesmerizing the populace with messianic speeches).  It all seemed so "normal." Smarter types were quietly leaving the country as they anticipated "mad max" coming.  I'm sure the rest of the population was calling them conspiracy nuts.  

Our founding fathers were the ultimate conspiracy nuts.  I find it very insightful to read their quotes about this stuff.  The US has become what they feared. I guess Eisenhower was a conspiracy nut when he warned of the danger of the military, industry, and government being intertwined. I guess JFK was a conspiracy nut as well when he tried to take on secret societies and said:

"we are opposed around the world by a monolithic and ruthless conspiracy that relies primarily on covert means for expanding its sphere of influence--on infiltration instead of invasion, on subversion instead of elections, on intimidation instead of free choice, on guerrillas by night instead of armies by day. It is a system which has conscripted vast human and material resources into the building of a tightly knit, highly efficient machine that combines military, diplomatic, intelligence, economic, scientific and political operations."

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Re: Is it just me or is TSHTF feeling more imminent?

strabes wrote:

 I guess JFK was a conspiracy nut as well when he tried to take on secret societies and said:

"we are opposed around the world by a monolithic and ruthless conspiracy that relies primarily on covert means for expanding its sphere of influence--on infiltration instead of invasion, on subversion instead of elections, on intimidation instead of free choice, on guerrillas by night instead of armies by day. It is a system which has conscripted vast human and material resources into the building of a tightly knit, highly efficient machine that combines military, diplomatic, intelligence, economic, scientific and political operations."

Oddly, or maybe not so oddly, these are the same tactics the US elites use against any country that would try to maintain its independence from the Washingon Consensus.  Examples?  Nicaragua, Haiti, Angola, Chile, Brazil, El Salvador, Dominica, Viet Nam, Congo, Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Columbia, Panama, Palau, Venezuela, East Timor, North Korea, Ecuador, etc.  There are dozens more.  It's so typical for a bully to blame the victim for the very same thing it inflicts on its victim.

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Ready
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Re: Is it just me or is TSHTF feeling more imminent?

What happened to Erik?

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umaperegrina
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Re: Is it just me or is TSHTF feeling more imminent?

Hey Nichoman - where are you in Iowa?  I'm in Estherville.

Lori

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Re: Is it just me or is TSHTF feeling more imminent?

That's a good point Durango.  It's too bad americans have let their government engage in these tactics against others.  I'd love to see Ron Paul get in office and shutdown the CIA...a cause of some of those incidents you mention.

Kennedy was warning us, though, that a lot of that stuff done by the US against others is caused by a covert conspiracy that operates within the US govt and elsewhere.  He supposedly got wise to the secret forces after the Bay of Pigs and tried to alert us about how they work.  Unfortunately he wasn't able to pursue his plans to weed them out.

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r
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Re: Is it just me or is TSHTF feeling more imminent?

If one believes in community, country and family then one is obligated to stay and fight fascism, oppression, and bad decisions made by leaders.  I'm talking about emulating Gandhi, Thoreau, and King.  As someone who believes in non-violence I'm not going to worry about those people who *may* resort to violence.  As I see it non-violent cooperation is our only hope.

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A. M.
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Re: Is it just me or is TSHTF feeling more imminent?

Redpoe,

Well said.

Appathy is our enemy. It's unnatural for people to be so disconnected with their world.
Violence too, is not a means to an end. It's a failsafe that is used only when non-violent means have failed, and your adversaries have committed themselves to violent courses of action.

Cheers!

Aaron

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