[quote=dps]
Long, long ago, Chris had said he would consider trading in his gold for land at say 1oz per acre. More recently, Chris has noted the possible value to be found in timber land. It would take some digging to find the references, but you could find them here on the site with enough persistence. ... dons
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[quote=Travlin]
Metametal
Check this link http://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/financial-crisis-far-over/39379 05-12-2010
[quote=Chris]
Under what circumstances would I consider transitioning away from gold and silver as my preferred means of preserving my wealth? I would want to see four things:
- A return of my home country, the US, to fiscal surpluses.
- Real interest rates that are attractive. Right now I'd peg those at 5% on the short end and 8% on the long end, maybe higher.
- No more quantitative easing. Period. Monetary sanity is a must.
- Balance of trade returned to the global landscape.
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I also remember him saying elsewhere to hold off on purchases if you already have a core position, as he expected what could be a last great buying opportunity by the fourth quarter, which he would alert us to. My memory is not exact but you can look it up if you want.
Travlin
[/quote]
Metametal
You have raised legitimate questions. When you originally asked them in post 56 here http://www.peakprosperity.com/martensonreport/coming-rout?page=5#comments you received the two responses above. I understand that they only covered one of the issues you raised, and a new thread is warranted to get more information. I have included these so everyone is current on responses.
Please accept my belated welcome to the forums.
Travlin
While I feel very indebted to Chris for his overall analysis, particularly in his Crash Course book, I find myself a bit uneasy about what appears to verge on boosterism for precious metals on this site. While the argument that gold and silver have a big upside in increasingly volatile markets seems strong, it also seems to me that Chris's articles tend to understate the general risk of getting into potential commodity bubbles. If you invest $10K in gold with the expectation that it may double in the near term, you also need a selling strategy for when to take the profits. Otherwise, what's to keep said investor from going poof when the bubble bursts in the next massive sell-off? Dr. Martenson does not seem to me to have adequately addressed the downside risks for precious metals in a 2008-like or otherwise Black Swan event. The price history chart for gold shows roughly a 25% drop in the months following the 2008 meltdown. In a greater panic, the decline could be even more pronounced. Is Chris discounting the need to defend against Black Swans? Given his invaluable exposition of risk in The Crash Course, it's hard to imagine that he would. The book describes a global debt bubble that could explode for any number of reasons and result in a crash of equities (not excluding commodities) whose scope we can scarcely imagine. As investors in extraordinarily dangerous times as described in the book, don't we need to keep extreme possiblities constantly in mind?
Again, I would respectfully question advising investors to get into any commodities without also suggesting a selling strategy for extreme events. If the advice is to hang onto all positions through the most desperate panics, this should be stated up front.
For that matter, we probably also need a more detailed buying strategy taking the likelihood of extreme events into account. Is it clear that now is the best time to buy into precious metals? Why not wait for the next 2008-style meltdown (or worse) and buy near a bottom after all the herds have panicked? If, as Chris's book suggests, we are in line for a systemic financial collapse, why advise anyone to join a herd before that crash scenario plays itself out?
Granted that we should all consider precious metals as strategic options in these increasingly volatile times. But like any other investment, we need to think about when to get in and when to plan to get out. With every due respect for Chris great contributions, I wish he would expound a bit more on these points.