Article on Oil Drum

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Article on Oil Drum

There is an excellent article on the Oil Drum about JODI's production numbers not only diverging from the others, but indicating that is possible we have started declining:

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/8044

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Great find, ewilkerson. 

Great find, ewilkerson.  I'm curious if Chris has seen this yet.  It implies a lot more knowlege and foresight into the reality/potential for Peak Oil than I think has been exhibited at a lot of forums Chris has been at and reported about, where a lack of awareness/insight into peak oil seemed more prevalent.  Then again, I think Chris has also said that Britain and Europe seemed more aware to him than the US when he visited them.  So maybe this British Government report is consistent with that observation.

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Other Reports

I know the British, Germans, and Kiwis have done reports, even Lloyds.  The governments don't still seem to be paying attention to them.  Very respected officers in the German Military, as well as, our's have done reports.  The German one in particular spells the situation out. 

I watch the news where they talk about our economic problems and want to scream.  As you know it's all energy.  There just is not enough cheap energy for the economies in the Western world to grow with their structural problems.  We could use 50% less oil and it would make an increadible difference.

My guess is that the data indicating that we are in decline is the first signs, but it will take a little more time to really know.

I'm rambling.  Have not had my coffee.  Have a great day.

Ernest

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What do they know? Rick just

What do they know? Rick just said there's enough oil for centuries.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/06/25/rick-santorum-glenn-beck-global-warming-oil_n_884646.html

Questioned about oil by Beck, Santorum boldly stated, "Drill everywhere," and proceeded to declare that there is enough oil, coal and natural gas to last centuries.

So there you have it. In other news it turns out that sh*t doesn't happen after all and that expotential growth is possible. Party on.

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Oh, our leaders are so

Oh, our leaders are so intelligent.  They sure inspire confidence.

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jumblies wrote: So there you

jumblies wrote:

So there you have it. In other news it turns out that sh*t doesn't happen after all and that expotential growth is possible. Party on.

Too funny; I love the smell of sarcasm in the morning!

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I can't even bear to watch

I can't even bear to watch the video.  I may have to buy a new laptop if I do.

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Centuries

OK - then what?

Might be a good time to turn an eye towards "long term" thinking. Not the next election cycle, but the next few centuries.
If we don't look forward, our descendants will be looking back, doomed to extinction as something better takes our mal-appropriated place.

Might be a good time to think about how we want to use our remaining oil to actually get off this planet.
Cheers,

Aaron

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ot

Quote:
Might be a good time to think about how we want to use our remaining oil to actually get off this planet.

Get off the planet?  And go where?  And how are we gonna get there? And who picks who gets to (or is condemned to) go?

This is the only planet we have access to in any meaningful way.  We need to learn how to live with it.

Doug

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And...

That's exactly what we need to fix.
With that mentality, our species will be doomed to extinction rather than adaptation to further environments.

If we just waste time and resources here, what ultimate purpose does our existance as the sole, definable intelligent life in the space we can see justify itself?

I can't see any other logical choice but for humans to move out and move on.

Cheers,

Aaron

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Alpha Mike wrote: That's

Alpha Mike wrote:

That's exactly what we need to fix.
With that mentality, our species will be doomed to extinction rather than adaptation to further environments.

If we just waste time and resources here, what ultimate purpose does our existance as the sole, definable intelligent life in the space we can see justify itself?

I can't see any other logical choice but for humans to move out and move on.

Cheers,

Aaron

The problem with that line of reasoning, of course, is that you haven't defined how that is even remotely possible, and neither has anyone else.  There aren't any habitable planets in our solar system and the next closest star is 4 1/2 light years away.  We can't get there from here.

Doug

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Terraforming

Terraforming is something we can at least start looking into.
I don't believe it'd be impractical as along term project. The Moon and Mars give us stepping stones on which we can cut teeth in this arena.

The philosophical importance is what appeals to me. Personally, I don't want to leave and like it here just fine.
You're 100% right we need to keep our ducks in a row here, but getting a hold in space is the only real way to ensure that we survive as a species for any great length of time.

...of course speciation is probably going to be an issue.
I'm really not a sci-fi guy, I swear =D

Cheers,

Aaron

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get off this planet

Alpha Mike wrote:
Might be a good time to think about how we want to use our remaining oil to actually get off this planet.

What......  you mean all six of us?

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Terraforming

Alpha Mike wrote:

Terraforming is something we can at least start looking into.
I don't believe it'd be impractical as along term project. The Moon and Mars give us stepping stones on which we can cut teeth in this arena.

The philosophical importance is what appeals to me. Personally, I don't want to leave and like it here just fine.
You're 100% right we need to keep our ducks in a row here, but getting a hold in space is the only real way to ensure that we survive as a species for any great length of time.

...of course speciation is probably going to be an issue.
I'm really not a sci-fi guy, I swear =D

Cheers,

Aaron

You're pulling our collective legs, right.....?  You don't believe in AGW, but you want to change the climate on Mars......  and THE MOON?  Where' there's no atmosphere and no water?

How are you going to get a million Hummers on Mars, and where will the fuel come from?  ;-)

Mike

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The only way mankind will

The only way mankind will survive this is to progress into something better and start helping people instead of being so Narcissistic The only problem is that the planet can support only around 1 billion people. What do we do?

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Alpha Mike

Alpha Mike wrote:

Terraforming is something we can at least start looking into. 

What makes you think we could make other planets habitable when we can't even keep our current planet habitable? And unless we can find some Stargates or somehow travel faster (or very nearly as fast) as light then we're stuck in this solar system. I doubt we can all get along long enough for technology to get us living on other planets (wherever they may be). And if our small talent for war is anything to go by, those left standing won't have the resources to build a spacecraft let alone be able to eat.

(that wasn't over the top, was it?)

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DTM

I never said I don't believe in AGW, I just don't buy into the hype.
It's too soon to determine the effects of humanity on the climate.
 
As far as hummers on the moon, well, obviously we outsource it to China. Duh.

All kidding aside, a self-sustaining base is a obtainable first step.
Terraforming doesn't need to be the immediate goal, but I'm certain there's valuable materials on the moon to work with.
Industry will follow =p

Jumbles, huh?
Yeah! I do expect we can. What, do you think that evolution favors those who simply repeat mistakes over and over again? We've gotten this far, let's not sell ourselves short.

You all are depressing. 

Cheers,

Aaron 

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jumblies wrote: Alpha Mike

jumblies wrote:

Alpha Mike wrote:

Terraforming is something we can at least start looking into. 

and unless we can find some Stargates or somehow travel faster (or very nearly as fast) as light then we're stuck in this solar system.

I think we're stuck here myself...!  I can't even believe we are staying on this line of thought!

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You all are depressing

Alpha Mike wrote:
You all are depressing.

Seriously?

We hardly ever agree on much, but I have to say i always thought you were way smarter than thinking all this stuff was even remotely possible... just why do you think the Moon has zero atmosphere...??

Could it be the low gravity can't hold onto any gases maybe...?

Mike

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DTM II: Edit

You're probably right. But... you've thrown down the gauntlet.
Gravitational fields hold particulates. Physics holds on the moon too. Nothing is producing particulates, hence, there is no retained atmosphere. I don't think it's as simple as the gravitational field is too weak - there's also the issue that there is just nothing to keep ahold of. I know this is a crappy source, but:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moon#Gravity_and_magnetic_fields

If it affects the disposition of a space craft, I think if sufficient particulates existed, they'd be held as well.
The problems I'd forsee are those of distribution. Being that only one side of the moon receives any heat - it'd be almost impossible to maintain any sort of heat distribution, which would affect and impact climate, and create bands of precipitation that would be nearly permanant where the advecting heat collided with the cold gases and vapor. 

I can't say that I know how much gas we'd have to produce, but you're looking at this from the wrong perspective. 
We, as humans, can live in totally alien worlds. Antarctica. Submarines. International House of Pancakes. Errm... space station... sorry. Creating an artificial biosphere would be an excellent exercise in Permaculture - it'd literally have to be. Think of what these advancements could mean for earth's agricultural woes. 
In addition, it'd give us something to do that's actually productive, instead of this paltry "lets invade so-and-so" Bulls***.

I look at all these things as natural processes. Outside the human body, a virus has maybe 48 hours to find a new host. If not, it dies. Space and humans? Sorta the same thing.
But if the virus finds something that's not quite as suitable, but that it can make work, it makes it work and ultimately adapts to it's new environment. Voila! The magic of natural selection, genetic drift and the spirit of adventure. 

Why you're right: NASA is a heinous disaster these days, and if anything gets us into space, it won't be the U.S. of A., and it probably won't be within any of our lifetimes. But the ambition is in the right direction, IMHO.

Malthus knew - we're not going to lose our desire to eat or reproduce. The only logical answer to the deliema of too many people is find more space. Anyway, I'm out of my element. I truly am not a Sci-Fi type. Just seems to be the only answer - once we can find a homeostasis with Gaia, time to leave the nest.

Cheers,

Aaron

Threadjacking Ninja Extrordinaire

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I can barely afford my home

I can barely afford my home on planet earth, so how can i afford one on a terraformed moon? Can banks foreclose on properties on other celestial bodies? Do I need a special mortgage? Are there budget flights to/from earht because I have fa,ily here. And what do I have to do to qualify for an interplanetary passport? Are the tsa going to handle security?

much as i'd love to see space, i think we're here to stay. I'd be more verbose but I'm typing this on an iPad and the rich text editor doesn't work and I hate these damned things anyway.

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Nothing beats exponential

(scotty) A'hm sorry cap'n the engine's 'll no take it.

 Malthus knew - we're not going to lose our desire to eat or reproduce. The only logical answer to the deliema of too many people is find more space.

I hate to break this to you... but outpacing *any* size exponential growth (even 0.1%)  eventually requires expanding into a bigger shell of space faster than the speed of light permits...

(err..  *and* an infinite universe obviously).

Think of Chris's famous sports stadium example, except you escape! One small problem ... the drop is still doubling.. it simply doesn't believe in limits.

Now you have "only" to run further than 1.4142 * the current puddle size every minute.. Not so bad at first.. but it rapidly becomes impossible, no matter how fast you run .

(for a 3d problem, just use a cube root of 2 factor instead, 1.259...).

 

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terraforming

Colonization (and for certain planetary bodies like Mars, terraforming) certainly is possible and does not need any quantum leaps in technology.  Actually, one of my professors at the University of Arizona did some pioneering work with in-situ atmospheric processing for creating rocket propellant using the Martian atmosphere (therefore reducing costs and opening more exploration and colonization possibilities).  What has stood in the way of more meaningful (and practical) space exploration from NASA this past few decades is politics, an obstructive bureaucracy, and a lack of desire and will amongst those in charge.  For those who think terraforming and colonization beyond the Earth is impossible or impractical (and for those who are just interested in knowing more about it), may I suggest the book "A Case For Mars" by Robert Zubrin, and also "Entering Space" by the same author.  Both are written for the layperson, and easy to read.  They also make good cases for "why should it be done".

I hate to say it, but I have to agree with Aaron.... I don't think NASA or the US govt will be the one to lead the push for space science and exploration.  I hope I'm wrong, but the current trends in both NASA and the US fiscal situation don't make me optimistic.  In fact I think the odds are good that some of the pioneering private interests such as SpaceX and Scaled Composites will eventually relocate outside the US due to increasingly hostile business climates (including, of course, the ongoing cronyism between govt and corp bigwigs: As military-launch costs soar, would-be competitors protest).  But I do expect we'll eventually see a serious continuation of space exploration, only it'll be from private interests and other nations.  Maybe if we're really lucky, such interests and nations won't be run by banksters or tyrants.

- Nickbert

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stadium continued.

A few quick calculations later..

Using a rough estimate for the radius of the universe as 2^98m, and the stadium as 2^10m

that magic drop fills the volume of the known universe 254 minutes after breaking out of the stadium.

So from start to finish, less than 5 hours, to fill a universe  93 billion light years in diameter.

Scaling from the doubling every minute drop to human population growth, with a far slower rate,

lets say at a constant 1% Per annum = doubling time 70 years..

The same 360 doublings, amounts to a grand 25,200 years instead of 5 hours.  (Good grief.. that's suspiciouly close to the "Great" or "platonic" year !)  - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Year

Re: Colonisation -  Definitely worth trying, if only to improve our living sustainably skills.If we can build a sustainable moon colony, maybe we can re-apply the lessons back to earth...

Terraforming ?

We don't even know how to terra-maintain yet ! *grin*

(edited to correct numbers by 50% - used wrong root)

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terraforming

You guys (OBVIOUSLY!!!) live on a different planet....

Remember this....

16

Built in just under four years and completed in 1991, Biosphere 2 was intended to study five areas of the natural biomes, their agricultural area, and to observe our living/working space. Specifically how we interact with each other under such confined circumstances.

Unfortunately the research was never completed.

If it's too hard to this on Earth...............

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nickbert wrote: Colonization

nickbert wrote:

Colonization (and for certain planetary bodies like Mars, terraforming) certainly is possible and does not need any quantum leaps in technology....

As a society, we cannot even acknowledge that the Earth's seas, atmosphere, forests and soils are what is underpinning industrial civilization's paper economy. And yet we dream of populating the stars as if this really were possible without solving the overwhelming problems that threaten to wipe mankind off this little blue orb, a thankless and abused caretaker for us all. Jesus wept.

Let me quote the artist who painted the cover for our book Ravenwild:

"We have our problems with shoreline erosion. Disease. Fatherless families. Deforestation. Fits of symptomatic overpopulation. Economic outcasts. Agitators. Criminals. We deal with them the best our traditions allow. But what we all -- enough of us -- have agreed on, is that we can't be dreaming about other islands until we learn to really, really live on this one. After all, we've seen the few other islands we can reach; they're desolate and without fresh water. So we will be born, die, laugh, cry, bang back the nail by generations (is it moving?) here where we are, trying to really, really, finally get it right. Before worrying about what's over the horizon." - Mark Zug

And an enjoyable essay on mankind's assumptions of eternal technological 'progress':

..

I have two futurological film clips today. The first, called The Near Future Of Our World (2011-2200), is interesting in the sense explained above. The second one, called The Astounding World of The Future, is simply one of the funniest things I have ever seen. I will not comment on this second one, which is so true to human life as we know it. You'll see what I mean.

The first clip presents an extraordinarily optimistic vision of the future. Indeed, it is characteristic of futurist films that they expose a delusional optimism bias which seems to be built right into human cognition. This strong psychological tendency is also described as overconfidence bolstered by positive illusions. The filmmaker obviously believes that global warming will have disastrous effects—rising sea levels, severe droughts, etc. But even as he predicts these disasters, the March Of Progress goes on and on! For example, by 2115—

  • Nomadic "floating cities" are roaming the oceans since many of the world's cities lie partially submerged due to rising sea levels.

And in the sequel, the terraforming of Mars is complete by 2500! How would we terraform Mars?

So, how would we terraform Mars? It sounds like a momentous task when you consider it. Mars has an average surface temperature of minus 60ºC, and so to make it viable for plant and human life you would need to raise that to above freezing, to roughly 5ºC. And of course you would need an atmosphere to breathe. This would require heating up the entire planet by 65ºC, and forming an atmosphere consisting of trillions of cubic metres of air. It is nothing short of an incredible task, but we plan ahead, and we've got a lot of time.

Of course, Homo sapiens will successfully terraform Mars when Hell freezes over. For example, where is the energy going to come from to heat up the entire planet to 60ºC? We're lucky we can still fill up our gas tanks—at an ever increasing cost over time.

The hidden assumption revealed here is what I have called The Assumption Of Technological Progress, which I first stated on DOTE in Technological Progress And The Oil Leak. I recommend you read that post, and the background links, if you are interested in understanding this important aspect of human optimism bias.

I shall have to devote a separate post to this subject. An examination of Human Nature says our species is very technologically clever, but says nothing about what progress we might make along those lines. For example, where are the alternative energy technologies that will replace fossil fuels at the vast scales we require? They don't exist, regardless of what Al Gore thinks. Perhaps they never will. I think that is the likeliest outcome.

And now, without further ado, the films.

...

The Astounding World Of The Future 

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re: biosphere 2

Damnthematrix wrote:

You guys (OBVIOUSLY!!!) live on a different planet....

Remember this....

Built in just under four years and completed in 1991, Biosphere 2 was intended to study five areas of the natural biomes, their agricultural area, and to observe our living/working space. Specifically how we interact with each other under such confined circumstances.

Unfortunately the research was never completed.

If it's too hard to this on Earth...............

You're implying "because something hasn't been done means it is impossible to do".  Giving up after trying and failing only twice would be just a tad premature, don't you think?  And I believe various research is still ongoing at the facility, most recently with my alma mater the University of Arizona.

Besides, I believe the problem had to do with this movie:

Biodome

You see, the original scientists and engineers made the mistake of watching this film.  Just as what usually happens when one sees a Pauly Shore movie, they lost the will to live and tried to erase the painful memories of it by smoking massive amounts of pot.  As you can imagine, things went downhill from there....

But we've learned our lesson!... no Pauly Shore film will ever leave this Earth, lest future space habitats and colonies suffer the same fate.  They will be put in the same 'prohibited for off-world transport' category as biological weapons, high explosives, and dome-piercing weaponry Wink

- Nickbert

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I don't think it's

I don't think it's impossible, but it is for us humans to do it. We simply can't get along long enough to plan, finance, implement and share this without some interest f-ing it up. WE are the problem.

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XRM-I would have to

XRM-

I would have to respectfully disagree with you and Mr. Zug.  While I concur that we should make every attempt to deal with our problems and improve ourselves here on this Earth, I disagree that we should wait until we solve our problems before expanding our reach beyond. 

First off, self-improvement is a journey and not a destination, both for individuals and societies.  We are simply imperfect creatures, and there is always going to be some struggle involved with the unpleasant byproducts of our imperfect nature.  We may (and hopefully will) improve ourselves to where our problems lessen in degree of severity, but waiting until we 'get it right' essentially means waiting forever. 

Second, the best in humanity usually expresses itself most often when we test the boundaries of what is known, when we are challenged in attempting the difficult (or the impossible), and when we break into new frontiers.  This certainly qualifies.  Plus it could serve as a safety valve of sorts, turning at least some of our competitive nature towards something more productive than armed conflict and cold-war-type power games.

Lastly, such habitats and colonies in space and other planetary bodies would be one of the most grand social experiments ever conceived, one that makes living with each other in cooperation (if not harmony) a necessity.  Imagine a society that is always intimately aware of the fragility of their enclosed habitats and the need for cooperation to keep them functioning, and where many of our more counter-productive social behaviors have direct 'life-or-death' implications.  Now imagine if such social groups are successful and manage to survive over generations... what might those people be like?  They may end up much closer to being the tolerant, friendly, and considerate kind of people that most of us wish we could be.  

But if you're not convinced yet here's my last argument..... don't you think it's high time we got out into space, find the aliens that are visiting Earth, then steal our cows back and probe THEM for a change? Wink

- Nickbert

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nickbert wrote: XRM- I would

nickbert wrote:

XRM-

I would have to respectfully disagree with you and Mr. Zug.  While I concur that we should make every attempt to deal with our problems and improve ourselves here on this Earth, I disagree that we should wait until we solve our problems before expanding our reach beyond. 

First off, self-improvement is a journey and not a destination, both for individuals and societies.  We are simply imperfect creatures, and there is always going to be some struggle involved with the unpleasant byproducts of our imperfect nature.  We may (and hopefully will) improve ourselves to where our problems lessen in degree of severity, but waiting until we 'get it right' essentially means waiting forever. 

...

- Nickbert

Uhhh... The problems we face are a little more dire than some self-help/home improvement project. Climate Change, Peak Oil, the 5th Mass Extinction (on land and in ocean), Collapse of Capitalism, and Overpopulation readily come to mind. Any one of those alone would seem to me to be a doozy of an "unpleasant byproduct of our imperfect nature."

But hey, maybe I'm just looking at the situation a little too pessimistically. Maybe we can overcome all those little obstacles while we colonize and terraform distant planets. That would be one hell of a feat - sort of like surviving a fall to Earth from 3,000 feet with no parachute. And there's a bed of 10 inch nails lying right at the spot where you drop.

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How did we get off on other

How did we get off on other planets?  We can't even solve our cities problems, much less going to another planet.  Remember you would need plenty of oil and wealth to do it.  We have neither...Cheers, Ernest

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