What the Bitcoin market is telling us.

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Thu, Jan 3, 2013 - 8:52pm
#1
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What the Bitcoin market is telling us.

Being a believer in the wealth-protecting powers of Gold, I was intrigued by an article which showed the dramatic outperformance of Bitcoin vs. Gold  (in terms of gains in dollar value) over the last few years.  In case you have been living in a (monetary) cave, Bitcoin is digital money based on cryptology - it is free of any government, has algorithmically-enforced scarcity, and is apparently catching on among the more digitally oriented (read younger) crowd.  Here is the chart that says it all;

 

source:  http://www.runtogold.com/2012/12/during-2012-fiat-currencies-and-gold-co...

Not only is Bitcoin continuing to catch on, but a recent CNN Money piece on the digital currency, which I immediately identified as a captured Corporate mass media hit piece, was uniformly ridiculed as such in the comments section.. a sign of intelligent life out there! 

source: http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2012/12/18/bitcoin-money-laundering/

While I am not computer-whiz enough to comment on any vulnerabilities of Bitcoin, I find that it has many of the same properties of Gold;  It is infinitely divisible - purposefully so, even more portable and concealable, has decreasing ore grades (via algorithmically enforced, increasingly CPU-intensive creation via "computer mining"), and it is democratic... maybe more so that Gold for now, since Gold is heavily manipulated via Central Bank leasing.  The free market is speaking here, and it likes Bitcoin.  

Because Gold is manipulated, and (for now at least) Bitcoin is not, I take the above performance vs. Gold with a grain of salt....  That being said, I am starting to think I want to take a small position in Bitcoin.  I think the idea has merit, and I believe what I am seeing here with Bitcoin is actually Gold positive.. it's just that when a 20-something web geek takes the red pill.. I am not surprised to see that they may first gravitate to Bitcoin before they learn about Gold.  It's all good... it's about waking up and smelling the fiat.

In a future world of dying fiat currencies, rapid acceptance of Bitcoin as an alternative could cause the value of an investment today to skyrocket in buying power.  I am not saying that I would sell any Gold or Silver to get some Bitcoin.. but I sure as heck might trade some green paper for it   : )        

Fri, Jan 4, 2013 - 12:23am
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bitcoin

First of all, i would like to say that bitcoin is NOT democratic. First, nobody is forced to use bitcoin, even if the majority says so. Second, there are no votations. Third, even if there were any, no votation will change the protocol.

Bitcoin is 100% private, as we all have spended resources in order to get our bitcoins, and now they are ours. When i buy 1 bitcoin for €10, i am putting €10 into the bitcoin economy. This value is transfered to everybody who has a bitcoin, so if the people like what the core programers are doing, the value will increase, if not the value will decrease. This incentives the programers to do things we believe in. So it's like a company and the shareholders.

Bitcoin is secure. but i believe is not enterprise enabled yet. By the way, lot's of improvements are being done and we will probably reach the critic mass this year. 

So... yes, bitcoin is a great thing... and... this is my bitcoin address XD

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Fri, Jan 4, 2013 - 5:19am
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The Rise And Fall Of Bitcoin

My concern is that this is a digital fiat currency that has no physical, tangible value.

At peak in mid-2011, a bitcoin could be traded for over $30. What is the value of a bitcoin today, as of January 4, 2013? Around $13 and change. I'm sure it can be worthwhile if people are willing to trade things for it, but at this time, it isn't something I'd be willing to invest in.

Poet

Fri, Jan 4, 2013 - 10:44am
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Poet and MrVision

First off... the Mr.Vision response is kind of non-sensical..but I will address at least a few of the points;

1)  When I say that Bitcoin is democratic.. I am saying that, unlike dollars in the US, or Euro's in most European countries, I can choose whether I use Bitcoin, or not, for certain transactions where Bitcoin is accepted.  It is free market.. not at all like a fiat currency, which must be used by law, backed by Gov't violence if necessary.        

2)  As well, buying a Bitcoin does not mean I am adding my dollars to the Bitcoin economy...this gives a false impression of the Bitcoin creation creation mechanism.  Since I am not doing Bitcoin mining myself, which can be done by tying up the computing power of a very powerful personal computer, buying an already-mined Bitcoin on an exchange is net neutral, i.e. somebody is selling a Bitcoin, and I am buying it.    

Poet,

As per 1) above, I will point out that Bitcoin is not in fact a fiat currency.  It is an alternate, non-Fiat unit of money....this is an important detail.  You are absolutely correct though in saying that it is non-tangible, non-physical.. although these qualities actually are what make it so portable and easily transferible.  Although dollars can be and are often digitized and sent around the world.. realize that there is often a currency conversion going on somewhere along the line in cross country transactions... since Bitcoin is borderless and universal, it does not suffer this parasitic loss.   

The other fundamental difference between today's Gov't fiat currencies and Bitcoin is that Bitcoin has scarcity integrity built in to its digital DNA... the underlying algorithm clamps down on the rate of Bitcoin generation over time as more are generated, in a way that mimics the mining out of a real natural resource.  Here is one model of how Bitcoin generation may evolve based on current mining rates;

     https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/File:Total_bitcoins_over_time_graph.png

So, in this sense, Bitcoin is also very different than the non-tangible fiat currencies that governments print or enter as keystrokes with Central Bank backing... these currencies can and are printed with no limits, while Bitcoin has scarcity built-in.  Some people view this as somehow being Ponzi-like, meaning that early Bitcoin adopters benefit from this scarcity as the units are divided and a single unit buys more.. and this will happen if Bitcoin continues to grow in adoption... deflation if you will..    I view it differently though; being a critic of money printing, I find the built-in scarcity integrity of Bitcoin to be very attractive.  Discussion of these points is important so that we can all learn by comparing and contrasting the qualities of different forms of money.  

Finally, Poet points out that Bitcoin has fluctuated in value against the dollar... but what is really amazing is that this chart does not speak to the fact that more and more Bitcoins have been coming into existence over the period of time this chart tracks, hence the more relevant chart, from the standpoint of understanding the recent evolution of the Bitcoin ecosystem, may be the Bitcoin market capitalization chart that is contained in the first reference in my original post.   

I am not trying to sell anyone on Bitcoin.. .only trying to point out that a lot of people like it and are adopting it.. and that says something.  I see my own reasons why this might be so, and I hope I have made them clear.  I think there is a reasonable chance that Bitcoins bought today will have more buying power, not less, in coming years.           

Fri, Jan 4, 2013 - 12:25pm
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Answering Poet

Everything has always been about a database to store value. In ancent times, when computers didn't exist, to save a record of how much value person A was transfering person B, they used a stone, one made of gold (because of its properties). But now you can actually save the record in a real database, the blockchain. That's why we (the bitconers) don't need the stone, because we have computers.

Think about it.

Gold has some good points, for expampe it is faster to transfer when you are beside the other person, just putting it on his hand. But has other bad points. Such as, not so well transferible through long distances.  So what you do is transfer the property. That means that you are going to store the gold in a bank, and then transfer the property of that gold to other person, so that person can now withdraw the gold. Welcome again to the database. What you are storing is numbers in a database, and what you're changing is the ownership of that numbers. 

But there's a problem with this scheme. You cannot transfer yet from person A to person B if they are customers of different banks... because they have records in two different db, so to do this bank A would have to send the gold to bank B to do that operation. Except if they create a bank to store the gold of bank A AND the gold of bank B and save a record of how much gold is holding bank A, and how much is holding bank B... you are starting to see the problem.

Once the gold is in just one place, it can be stolen. You don't have actually to take it, you just have to be the gov. and introduce fear into the heads of the population. Now you have to deal with this new central bank and make them to sign a deal: i give you the monopoly on issuing currency in exchange for infinite financing.

And this is what bitcoin is trying to prevent. What all those developers and merchants are working to avoid. To stop the vicious circle.

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Fri, Jan 4, 2013 - 12:33pm
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And that's where you're

And that's where you're wrong. In a democracy (and i live in one) you are not allowed to chose another thing different from the will of the majority. Free market is about freedom, but democracy is about sacrifice. Sacrifice for the greater good, the common interest or whatever you want to call it. But it's the majority forcing the minority to do what they don't want. Is the annihilation of minority ideas.

Does this have anything to do with bitcoin? certainly not. Because it's not democratic, but free.

How would a democratic cryptocurrency look like? Everybody voting, for instance, how the supply might increase or decrease, everybody voting if there is or not a tobin tax... everybody voting. And everybody forced, by the gov, to use it.

Democracy is a terrible word with a very good marketing. But it is synonym of tyranny.

Fri, Jan 4, 2013 - 2:59pm
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Democratization and semantics

I was not using this term in the sense of politics, nor making any statement relative to the good or bad points of democracies in general - I am sorry that you could not discern this based on context.  I was using the term in the more generic sense, such as number 3. below.  I may not always be correct in my conclusions... but I am very precise in my language. 

Examples of DEMOCRATIZE

  1. Community leaders have had some success in democratizing the organization.
  2. There is internal pressure on the government to democratize.
  3. The magazine's goal is to democratize art.
  4. an effort to democratize politics

source:  http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/democratize

Fri, Jan 4, 2013 - 3:29pm
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Timely article by Krieger...

And really, this was my point all along (highlight below is mine) - identify the trend.. maybe Bitcoin will be a winner among alternate currencies;

The Greeks Have Already Dumped the Euro

Posted on
January 4, 2013

 

Really fascinating article about how many cities and communities in Greece have already moved on from the euro to bartering as well as alternative currencies.  The city of Volos, 200 miles north of Athens with a population of 170,000 is highlighted in the article due to the size of its alternative money market centered around a local currency call the Tem.  This sort of behavior will be the wave of the future in all countries, as Central Bank currencies are debased into extinction.  It’s interesting because while I was in Crested Butte over New Year’s I noticed they have a local currency going there called Crested Butte Bucks and I was really surprised to see that you can spend them pretty much anywhere in town.  I also highlighted this trend in my post earlier this year English City of Bristol Launches its Own Local Currency.

source:  http://libertyblitzkrieg.com/2013/01/04/the-greeks-have-already-dumped-t...

Tue, Jan 8, 2013 - 12:45pm
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Bitcoin as alternative/complementary currency

Good thread; thanks, all -- especially Jim for starting it.  I'd looked briefly at bitcoin a year or so ago, then forgot about it.

Jim's last comment, about alternate currencies, tickled an itch of mine: would there be any interest in starting a forum topic, or maybe a group, about local/alternative/complementary currencies?  It looks like there's a small wave of these starting in the US, and I'm starting to think how such a thing might work in a larger city.

Sat, Jan 12, 2013 - 2:54pm
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Local Currencies...

That is an interesting question Dwig... I did a little bit of research regarding those local currencies that have existed the North Eastern US where I reside..namely Itaca, NY's Hours currency, and the more recent Burllngton, VT Bread.. and found that both have all but died.  Ithaca Hours was one of the most long-lived alt. currencies, having come into existence in the early 1990's.  It sounds like the Ithaca currency was kept alive in part by the energy of one particular individual, and it began to die when he moved away;

http://www.ithaca.com/news/article_175100c4-65d6-11e0-bd73-001cc4c002e0....

In researching these I tried to get a sense of the creation mechanism... and I was unable to do so.  It sounded like you bought in to the system by signing up and paying some dollars, and you got some (newly minted?) Hours or Bread in exchange.  The admittedly small amount of research I have done on local currencies does nothing to dissuade me from my conclusion that Bitcoin is different, and that it deserves our attention.

Bitcoin is different because it is the only currency of human origin that I can point to that has built-in scarcity integrity...  it will become increasingly difficult to "mine" over time in a way that is exactly analogous to precious metals (and hence the term mining).  If I was to promote a non-governmental currency for a local economy... I don't see any reason to create a new one when Bitcoin is out there.  The true beauty of Bitcoin lies in the fact that, as long as the underlying algorithm and crypto-keys remain uncorruptible, the value of a Bitcoin is almost guaranteed to increase over time as long as the currency does not fall out of favor or become the subject of Gov't interventions.  If you think that US dollars are poised to increase in their buying power over time... I have some swampland in Florida that is two feet above sea level that you might like to purchase from me....                           

Sat, Jan 12, 2013 - 4:06pm
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Bitcoin gaining ground internationally

Digital Currency Exchange, Bitcoin-Central, has been authorized by the French government to conduct bank style operations. In an announcement last month on bitcointalk.org, Paymium, the organization behind Bitcoin-Central said this:

We’re announcing today that Bitcoin-Central.net is getting, through a partnership with Aqoba, allowed to operate like a bank, (or more precisely like a PSP [Payment Service Provider], which is basically the same as a bank, just without the debt-money issuing part).

source: https://wealthcycles.com/blog/2013/01/11/digital-currency-bitcoin-accept...

And, as I have been harping on;

Rather than deriving value because a central authority such as a government deems them valuable, as is the case with fiat currencies such as the euro, yuan, yen and dollar, Bitcoins have value because people know the supply is limited and unchangeable by planners.

In more detail;

That lottery tightly controls how many Bitcoins are created. There are currently close to 6 million in existence. By 2014 there will be about twice that number. Bitcoin's distributed software is set to slow production over time so that there will never be more than 21 million in circulation. "No banker can control it. No evil dictator tyrant can print zillions and destroy the value," says Bruce Wagner, organizer of New York's Bitcoin developer's meet-up.

Remember, Bitcoin is divisible..meaning that someday, if everybody uses Bitcoin, some tiny fraction of an original Bitcoin will be worth the same as an entire Bitcoin today...this is deflation in action.  In this sense, Bitcoin, Gold, and Silver are very close in nature.   

Mon, Jan 14, 2013 - 7:03pm
#12
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quantum computer threat?

Thanks for sharing info on Bitcoin here guys. I've been curious.

One thing I wondered about is whether the system would be safe from quantum computers? It seems every couple months I hear about a new development in the progress toward developing a quantum computer, and that such a device would be able to crack even our most powerful encryption effortlessly. Even if it takes another 15 years before such computers are created (a very long time in technology), that is still a very short span of time for a currency system to exist. Thoughts?

Mon, Jan 14, 2013 - 9:19pm
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cryptography

I am not the expert.. but I would think that, if and when practical quantum computers come in to being, that the crypto-keys for Bitcoin could be upgraded to quantum strength as well;

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_cryptography

This would of course depend on the democratization (there's that word again) of access to quantum computers... and one might assume that governments will have access to them (think Gov't funded defense oriented research) before the Bitcoin crowd...  so it is hard to be completely comfortable with Bitcoin in the very long term (say, 10-15 years).  Then again, in the "world made by hand" that Jim Kuntsler describes, we won't have the internet post-collapse.. so that's a different kind of problem : )             

Mon, Jan 14, 2013 - 9:55pm
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Bitcoins seem highly speculative to me

Jim H wrote:

Remember, Bitcoin is divisible..meaning that someday, if everybody uses Bitcoin, some tiny fraction of an original Bitcoin will be worth the same as an entire Bitcoin today...this is deflation in action.  In this sense, Bitcoin, Gold, and Silver are very close in nature.

Do you really know that Bitcoins will be deflationary?  This seems highly speculative at best.  Just because their numbers are limited does not make them valuable nor guarantee that their value will not go down in the future (check out the Danbury Mint for example smiley).  They are ONLY valuable because others currently believe that they are valuable.  No intrinsic value at all.  It is not hard to imagine a scenario where bitcoins become nearly worthless overnight.

Gold and Silver are finite tangible objects that can be physically transported and protected.  The only things they have in common with Bitcoins are that they are divisible, limited in number, and are currently perceived as having value.

kevinoman0221 wrote:

Thanks for sharing info on Bitcoin here guys. I've been curious.

One thing I wondered about is whether the system would be safe from quantum computers? It seems every couple months I hear about a new development in the progress toward developing a quantum computer, and that such a device would be able to crack even our most powerful encryption effortlessly. Even if it takes another 15 years before such computers are created (a very long time in technology), that is still a very short span of time for a currency system to exist. Thoughts?

Kevin,

Good point about quantum computing.  I have wondered that same thing myself.  At least for me I also find Bitcoins shady origins to be a major cause of concern.

I am not saying that Bitcoins are bad.  I actually really like the idea of an anonymous cryto-currency.  The government seems to actively dislike Bitcoins which I also consider a plus at this point.  I have no problem with taking a smallish position in Bitcoins, just in case.  However I know that I would not sleep very well at night if I had $10k's or $100K's worth of bitcoins sitting in a digital wallet on my windows PC. Not a chance!

Mon, Jan 14, 2013 - 10:49pm
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Bitcoins are speculative.... yes

I agree Goes.. and I would not stake out a large position myself.. maybe a few thousand dollars at some point.  For Bitcoin appreciation (or deflation) to take place... they would need to continue growing in adoption.. in market acceptance.  From what I can see, that will continue to happen, driven in part by the behavior of governments, imposing capital controls, pushing us toward more digital transactions so that all can be taxed (doing away with cash, and the anonymity it confers), etc.

I don't think pointing out that it is intangible, or that it could go to zero, takes anything away from it... these describe our debt-based fiat currencies to a tee and yet we all seem pretty happy when our wallets are stuffed with these... the only difference being that Bitcoin is better because at least its scarcity is not controlled by any man.. rather by its digital DNA.  

I think Bitcoin offers an excellent perspective on what money is.. and what it can be.  What makes money good?  What makes a new form of money good enough to find acceptance in a free market?  Why is Bitcoin, for now, gaining such widespread acceptance around the world?  Again, I will say, scarcity integrity is the key here.... this is the lesson.  Just like I found my way to Bitcoin via my interest in Gold.. I think many of the younger set will eventually find their way to Gold via Bitcoin.. this is Gold positive in my book.         

Tue, Jan 15, 2013 - 3:19pm
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Quantum computing

The Bitcoin algorithm has a built in ability to increase the difficulty aka computing power needed to mine new coins at a fixed interval, based on how fast the coins where created in the previous interval. Hence it becomes increasingly difficult to mine new coins. This is based on the total computing power used, so this also takes into account the number of computers mining. So for someone to exploit quantum computing for bitcoins, their computer has to be significantly more powerful, then all the other computers minig bitcoins

Tue, Jan 15, 2013 - 4:19pm
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Quantum computing...

Magnum...  I think you may misunderstand what's being discussed here... the issue of quantum computing was raised as it applies to the cryptography aspect of Bitcoin.. the means by which a Bitcoin is transferred by exchange of cryptographic keys.  Quantum computers in concept should be powerful enough to crack existing cryptography.

Your points about Bitcoin mining are correct, but one could assume that essentially all Bitcoins that can ever be mined will have been mined by the time practical quantum computers arrive. 

Tue, Jan 15, 2013 - 5:16pm
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Bitcoins when internet is down.

How would you use Bitcoins if internet and communications are down?  I know that in that case I could go dig up my gold and silver and still be able to transact business.

Have you ever tried to use a credit or debit card in a grocery store when their net is down. I have. It is comical to watch all of the employees flounder about trying to figure out how to transact business.  All of these transactions grind to a halt. It looks to me that Bitcoin is very vulnerable in that regard.

Wed, Jan 16, 2013 - 4:44am
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Got it Jim - didn't read

Got it Jim - didn't read every detail :)

That issue is universal - if I was a bad person with a quantum computer today, I would probably find it more interesting to point it towards the "real" financial system and use it against credit cards and banks. Essentialy all security algorithms we use today, be it in finance or Internet privacy are based on the same level of cryptography and all of these will fall for the power of quantum computers.

The weak ones are already falling, for instance wifi. Today anyone can break any wifi security without having the computing power at home. You can send of the calculations to break the password to the cloud and for about $35 of computing power at Amazon, you gain access to a wifi network.

Sun, Jan 20, 2013 - 8:43pm
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Bitcoin dependency on electronic networks

Ken, you touched on a subject that I was wondering about while reading the comments. Essentially, the future of Bitcoin in an energy-constrained future.

Chris' latest essay, "How Energy Woes Will Trigger Financial Crisis", gives a pretty good summary of where we are energy-wise: wondering when all the energy-intensive things we rely on will start to become very expensive, if available at all.

Looking at the Internet in particular: it's not the only possible electronic network.  As a long-time software developer, I've seen a variety of network types, including those connecting personal computers via modems and phone lines.  My guess is that we'll start to see these "alter-nets" arise again (in fact, there are some hams experimenting with digital packet nets).  They'll be considerably lower bandwidth; you won't be watching streaming video on them, but they will be able to basic information passed around.

So, could Bitcoin migrate to a low-bandwidth, low-power network, and continue to operate?  Also, how dependent is "mining" on fast, energy-intensive computers?  Could it be done on an array of cheaper ones?

Sun, Jan 20, 2013 - 10:18pm
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HAM-based low speed internet...

DWIG..that is fascinating..  could even lead to a resurgence of interest in HAM among preppers I would think.  What a great community we have here!  I appreciate your contribution to this thread,  Jim

Sun, Mar 10, 2013 - 3:22pm
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Bitcoin value is 45USD today

Bitcoin value is 45USD today do you expect it to have another sharp drops in prices? it seems that it is becoming mainstream every day passing.?

Sun, Mar 10, 2013 - 4:44pm
#23
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The Bitcoin market is telling us that

people are desperate for yield and will go way out on the risk curve to try to make a bit of money (pun intended). 

5 bits = 1 250w solar panel = 7 ounces of silver= survival food for 1 month= 56 gallons of gasoline= 1 good used pistol= 300 rounds of ammo = garden seed for 2 years= .................

What the **** is a bit? and why would I speculate on one? There are so many real places to store ones wealth.  

I thought that this site was about Solid Valued Living.....NOT speculation.

Sun, Mar 10, 2013 - 5:59pm
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HAM based low speed internet

thank you for your post about amateur radio low speed packet and internet.   Hams have been doing lots of things for a long time.  Can someone supply a specific reference for hardware construction of the specific hardware referred to?

Sun, Mar 10, 2013 - 5:59pm
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C

Sun, Mar 10, 2013 - 6:08pm
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Sun, Mar 10, 2013 - 6:08pm
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local currencies and Bitcoin

Jim H, thanks  for your comments.  However you point out WHY bitcoin is not an improvement over fiat currency by stating: "the value of a Bitcoin is almost guaranteed to increase over time as long as the currency does not fall out of favor or become the subject of Gov't interventions.  The problem with the dollar, yen euro  etc is that make believe fiat wealth ARE subject to Gov't interventions.   Furthermore, the US govt already has expressed its interest in controlling biocoin and has a way (via monitoring all internet traffice, recording and data mining) to follow bit coin transactions, as detailed by Chris Duane, who has explored these issues with a bitcoin founder. Even assuming anonyminity, why cant the TPTB buy, sell, arbitrage, manipulate, hypothecate and make a secondary (paper) market for bitcoin just as they do now for gold and silver that is not held in physical form that can be used to  make solar panels, jewelry etc?  Real  wealth is real wealth.  bitcoin is not real wealth but by definition,  is subject to manipulation and has been manipulated recently (see Chris Duane's recent report).  I suggest that a person stack PM if they are interested in having or preserving wealth. 

Sun, Mar 10, 2013 - 7:03pm
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Oliveoilguy

I consider your post very "holier-than-thou".  My own personal view is not that Bitcoin is a speculation.. but rather that is a unique form of money/currency, that the free market likes so far.. and that there are things to be learned from the phenomena.  I think that if one is to "buy in" to the phenomenon, they should do so only to a small extent.. I suggest no more than 1% of investable assets.. and it should indeed be thought of as risky.  So, I am cool personally with 1% Bitcoin, 50% Gold and Silver (or more) in a portfolio.  I have not yet pulled the trigger on my 1% of Bitcoin.. but am kinda kicking myself for not doing so.

Your points are well taken... by I have 1/5 of my basement filled with freeze dried food AND enough long shelf life seeds to outfit myself and several neighbors planting an acre each  ... no comment on ammo    .... you get the picture.  What then?  

To me, the Bitcoin phenomenon is a window into the nature of money.. what makes good money?  It might surprise you that my view these days is that debt-based fiat currency is NOT the devil.  Any form of money needs a transparent creation mechanism... and there are certainly worse ideas than debt-based (like just allowing the government to create trillion dollar coins when their spending gets out of control).  Anyway, the devils are two;

1)  The FED

2)  Governments spending beyond their tax intake.       

Debt based money could work if there was no FED - only a relatively free market to allow the money, and cost of money (interest rates) to float based on market demand.  This though would mean there would be periods of deflation (what we are seeing with Bitcoin).. and bankers don't allow that anymore;

Doug Short illustrates beautifully here

http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/inflation/inflation-sin...

Sun, Mar 10, 2013 - 7:22pm
#29
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Mots
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Olive oil guy and Jim H

I agree with both you guys.  Bitcoin is fascinating and has a place, and it is understandable as Jim points out to have a little bit for fun and as a (speculative?) investment, while not going overboard by relying on it for wealth preservation per se as olive oil guy points out.  Most importantly to me, bit coin is a wonderful diversion to TPTB and to a corrupt government.  I hope that the latter two spend all their resources and  nightmares dealing with bit coin.  Maybe they will spend a little less against the people.

Sun, Mar 10, 2013 - 10:16pm
(Reply to #28) #30
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Oliveoilguy
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Bitcoin not for the novice investor

Jim H wrote:

I consider your post very "holier-than-thou".  

 

Jim,

Not intending to be "holier-than-thou". If you knew me I'd not fit that description at all. My comments are not directed at savy investors like yourself.

Just want to give some perspective to people mesmerized by the price spike. For a novice investor it is easy to get sucked into the high beta action. This has the same feel as the housing bubble and especially the tech boom where companies were no more than a name. It's the honest, hardworking folks who loose big in speculative activities.  

I like one thing that Warren Buffet says. "If you don't understand an investment, then don't buy it." (paraphrasing)

Sun, Mar 10, 2013 - 11:02pm
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Thanks Oliveoil

for the reply.. the written word lacks dimensionality sometimes...

I agree with you that it's inappropriate to look at a chart and just chase momentum... for anything.  My own research continues to suggest that Bitcoin is something that will have legs.. a piece today on ZH created much discussion - I thought this comment was right on the mark;

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-10/demographics-bitcoin#comment-33...

The only thing about bitcoin that isn't transparent is who created it, and given the US's proclivity to use criminal charges to harrass anyone that brings crypto-anything to the masses, I can understand why they keep that secret.

All the economic changes, rewards, and accounting are completely open for inspection. Can't say that about central banks.

I understand your concerns about fiat, but bitcoin is genuinely in a different place than traditional fiat, as it takes real resources to generate them, and the rate of generation is fixed. Imagine how differen the USD would look if they could only "print" 2% of M2 a year and the cost of printing was propotionate to the amount printed. Bitcoin isn't gold, but it's not your father's fiat, either.

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