Embodies the core concepts I think *everyone* who owns a gun for a collapse scenario should start with.
Crime isn't going to change that much.
If you ask me, it's already begun to make its shift.
Security starts with your person. If you cannot defend yourself - you'll be less useful and more reliant in a cohesive effort. The same concept applies to a symphony. One unskilled musician can damage the overall sound being produced. As with music, or any other effort, it is incumbent upon you to be as skilled as is reasonably possible. Also, in this way, the pistol is the "personal" weapon. It is what you carry to defend the things closest to you.
The rifle is to a community what a pistol is to an individual.
With that in mind, most of the time, crimes are just opportunists seizing an opportunity. There's been some dialog in the past about this; if you have money, gold, guns or other valuables, do not tell people about them. This is a great way to reveal an "opportunity" to people who have no problem pistol whipping your wife to find out where your stashed $50k in gold Krugerands are.
So let's start there - if you let it get to this point - you've already failed at personal security, firearm or no.
Personal security is often tied to firearms because we, as humans, love power and firearms represent that. It's misused often, misunderstood more frequently, and people treat firearms with an odd mix of indifference and superstition.
Truth is, you'll probably make far more use out of developing a strong voice, and getting good at shouting intimidating commands, or being able to verbally disarm situations than you will spending all day at the range... If, and only if, you can manage to keep yourself from being targeted in some way. The sidearm comes in to play here for two reasons - we can't help if we're targets, because we can't know what every opportunist is looking for, and two, it's a lot more fun going to the range than it is yelling at yourself in the mirror.
Either way, management of unknown contacts is a foundational component of personal security. It is, and I'm at risk of damaging the orthodoxy here, far more useful than your quick draw.
When dealing with situations in which you have a person(s) of unknown intent there are a few things you need to do:
1. Watch for "tells" that indicate hostility (These can be discussed later)
2. Mentally establish and maintain boundaries and do not give them up.
3. Be aware of your surroundings and move tactically to put your contacts at either disadvantageous, or less advantageous positions (IE, sun in their eyes, decrease their interval, etc).
Even if this situation develops into a fight, knowing when to draw is more important than being able to draw quickly, fire two shots and do an obligatory threat scan that you do as a courtesy to your last instructor ('cause generally, people don't "see" anything when they do this, they just think it makes them "tactical").
We can tie this back to your point about "having" a gun on you when you need it because these kinds of situations develop quickly and almost always involve you being surprised by the bad guy(s). If you can't shift the situation by maneuvering and communication (same concepts as the military, though very different for the civilian) in order to avoid violence, you must be keenly aware of how easy it is to turn what you think will be you getting all John Woo'y on fall guys into a nightmare tangle of limbs in which you and two other guys are struggling over a malfunctioned pistol. Or worse yet, end up like this guy (scroll down a bit to see video - Warning: NOT work safe, very disturbing), who fails his draw, while his opponent tries over and over again to fix a stoppage in order to execute you.
This is gun fixation, and you should know how to avoid it in order to get posture, positioning and platform. Had he not failed his draw, he probably would still have had the gun taken and been killed. Please train yourself to focus on the fight first, and the proper use of weapons second.
So, as society gets more desperate, the crime will increase in amplitude and frequence. The types of crime that are associated with this shift are well known:
-Establishment of organized crime
-Sharp increases in petty and property crimes
-General disrespect for the law and private citizens
-"Turf" or "hood" based crimes - generally you wandering into an area you didn't realize was held by unfriendlies.
-"Hits" or "Marks" in which a person is targeted for a specific reason (assets, revenge, extortion, etc)
Those are all situations in which your personal sidearm is a realistic solution to some of the associated problems. If things degenerate further, to the point where community watches become necessary, having, and being proficient with, a fighting rifle will be a very useful skill.
I don't really see that happening, honestly. Even during the collapse of the Soviet Union, it was isolated to regions that were submerged into religious, political or civil wars, and under such conditions, you can "opt out" as much as possible by avoiding conflict to the best of your ability. That said, the collapse of the one remaining superpower might be a game changer. Only time will tell and it's entirely possible to think that gangs might be organized enough to send several goons to attack a person at home, or even a small town... A situation in which a fighting rifle would be a strong asset.
Cheers,
Aaron
I've seen some videos about the reality of gun battles in SHTF scenarios, war-like scenarios,etc. Some people saying a handgun is no good because you could easily get picked off from 100 yards, etc.
To me this seems unrealistic. We aren't talking about a warzone where enemies are well-defined and easily identified. We are talking about neighborhoods where people are starving, people coming to your home looking for food, and most of this happening in cities or the suburbs. Most of us won't have 100 yards line of site in ANY direction.
Any trouble that comes will come suddenly and fairly unexpectedly. In most neighborhoods you can't see much further than your own yard and your neighbors yard without being on a roof or somewhere else like that. Even if bad guys wore bad guy costumes and I could easily identify them, I would never be able to see them until they are in my neighbors yard, or just down the street. And the bad guys won't have bad guy costumes...they will look just like you and me. On that note, resorting prematurely to deadly violence will be foolish.
If trouble comes I think it will be in one of two forms:
1. Mob or gang (easily identifiable, because they are looting your neighborhood). But shooting at them while they are down the street is probably not a good idea. More than likely, that is going to get you attention you don't want. Best tactic here I think would be to hole up in your house, and if they start toward your house, fire some serious warning shots and only if they continue to threaten to actually use deadly force. Best scenario here is to have neighborhood watch or something similar where the gangs will be spotted sooner rather than later.
2. Someone comes to your house, pretends to want to trade or beg, and then tries to rob you or kill you. In this case, I think the best thing would be to always greet newcomers with a serious show of force and have some visible (and if possible some hidden) backup covering you.
With all this in mind, I really think the best weapons will be handguns (easily concealed, easily carried no matter what you are doing, i.e. one hand on the plow, one on your gun), shotguns (serious deadly force with the potential to disperse or take out a crowd in a hurry), and high-capacity, high rate of fire rifles (i.e. ak 47). I don't think sniper rifles, long range rifles, etc. will be practical or necessary. This isn't a battlefield, it's a neighborhood gone to shit and your enemies could be anyone...but the trick is, you don't always know they are your enemy until very late in the encounter. Battles will all be close range...
Thoughts? Comments?