I lump these two together because they are saying the same thing: "The stock market should go up looking forward because it is only at the level it was at 10-12 years ago, and has always gone up over such periods of time based on past history."
What I do not hear from either of these guys is any consideration whatsoever of a currency crisis, impact of crushing debt like never before, credit bubble popping and not being reinflated, treasury bubble to pop, etc. It is amazing to me that these supposed geniuses in the field of finance base their estimates of the future performace of the stock market 100% on past periods of growth, when we were far less indebted and had sound reasons for higher growth. Or maybe I'm hopped up on the red pill and it's me who is wrong in thinking the past is a horrible indicator of the future for the stock market and economy. I seem to think we are so far in debt that it will lead to a reset or other structural paradigm shift that renders the past useless as any indicator of the future.
What do you think? Are some of you baffled by the seeming stupidity of some of our time financial thinkers, or am I going overboard here?
Don't you think it might be in their best interest to NOT tell the truth? Even if they do understand the nature of the beast, why give good advice to every Joe Sixpack? "Hey everybody, get out of the market now, and help collapse my fortune!"
Of course, their view of "past history" is completely myopic. The long view of history shows that all fiat currencies return to zero, and that debt crushes nations, leads to war, etc.
Make of it what you want, but Forbes also said oil will again be $35/barrel. That was around 2001.
I do tend to make the mistake that everyone is voicing their honest opinion. Clearly, those who have a vested interest in the status quo tend to push the traditional even if they know things are different now. Thanks for reminding me.
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