Confiscation

Doug -

It's a fair question. I'm not knowledgable enough about Basel III to comment on what the central banks are thinking, but I'll share my perspective on the matter in general.

Personally, I only see confiscation risk if gold is remonetized. That doesn't mean that gold will be confiscated if we return to a gold standard, but I see the odds of confiscation as much lower if we don't.

If we do return to a gold standard, then confiscation will depend on several issues. Two important ones will be

1. the degree of gold backing (100%? Or something less?)
2. the true amount of gold the US holds (the US Treasury currently reports the US holds 261.5 million troy ounces, though there are parties that dispute we hold that much)

If the goverment decides it does not hold enough ounces to meet the new backing requirements, then confiscation (surely to be termed something nicer, like "voluntary remittance") becomes much more likely.

If this does come to pass, I see two outcomes as probable:

1. the government will offer to pay current gold holders a premium to "remit" their gold
2. the government will go after the larger concentrated pools of bullion first before pursuing holdings at the individual household level

The premium paid will most likely not be as high as whatever gold will be worth once a remonetized currency is issued, but it should be higher than the pre-monetization spot price. Translation: you'll still get a positive return on your current gold holdings. The bad news is you'll be holding paper - but you'll have more than those who didn't have gold to remit.

With the advent of custodian depositories for ETFs, hedge funds, IRAs, and other vehicles that didn't exist back during the 1934 confiscation, there are now a relatively small number of pools that hold a lot of gold at the retail level. It's going to be much more expedient, both logistically and politcally, to go after those piles of bullion than to start paying visits to citizen households. So there may be time for the individual bullion investor to take steps when the Feds are occupied shaking down these big players.

What should those steps be? That's a good topic for this group to discuss. One thing that sounds prudent to me, though, is you'll have more options if the gold is physically in your hands. The more degrees of separation between you and your bullion, the greater the risk you can't get to it once remonetization is announced.

A good friend is currently going through the process of having the coins he holds through his IRA delivered to him. He'll be taking a hefty hit with income taxes and the early withdrawal penalty, but with the certainty of higher future tax rates and his personal nervousness regarding confiscation, he's not second-guessing his decision.

And I'm not trying to talk him out of it.

Why not hold the coins in his possession in an IRA:LLC? If confiscation occurs it won't matter whether personally held coins are in an IRA or not no?

Gold also gets confiscated in times of war.  Some questions:

Is gold safe in Switzerland during war?

Do insider power players store gold in Switzerland?  If so, will the insiders make Switzerland off limits for confiscation?

Can Switzerland fend off a physical attack, how practical is an attack in the mountains?

What is being taught in Switzerland schools with regards to personal sovereignty?

Are the Swiss like the French?  Or anti-French?

The swiss are the swiss. They are neither french, italian nor german. Switzerland is one of the most direct democracies in the World and every adult male is a member of the armed forces and is issued and required to have his weapon at home - no school shootings there.

What you need to think about is, how are you going to get to your gold, when you need it? Zürich is a 12 hour drive away from me, but if you afe in the US, how are you going to get to your gold? 

Do you think shipping is an option in a crisis? Do you think it will be safe?

Magnum

If confiscation happens, it will likely take a different tack from the olden days. There are so many more tools available to the elected than were available during the last confiscation. What if the government offered to buy PMs at a premium (carrot) and also made it illegal to use them for barter (stick)?

Government could legally require all websites to submit all transactions (like these posts ... along with your real name and payment information.) That may not be necessary. All posts have already been sniffed by others in cyberspace (when you hit the save button and send it on its merry cyberspace journey.) Profiles can be easily constructed from your posts, e-mails, etc. I'm amazed at the amount of personally identifiable information that is freely shared on various sites. Rest assured that it is already being scrutinized with the utmost level of automation.

Is there really any place to hide? Does it really matter?

As anonymously as possible,

Grover

I agree with you that, it may seem like there is no place to hide (heard they can even track you down in real-time using drones) but like the old saying goes "if theres a will, theres a way"!!

Its at times like this where Preppers are starting to look like modern day Einstiens.

The only logical way I can see protecting your PM's from forceful confiscation via the carrot and stick method, is that you join well numbered, close-knit communities outside of major cities and invoke your right to bare arms. May seem a little extreme, but no one has the right to your personal property except YOU.