Treasury bonds


The Martenson Report - The Flashing Market Indicators To Watch For

Monday, October 24, 2011

Executive Summary

  • Foreign demand for US Treasurys is at its weakest in 5 years
  • Fed insiders are increasingly voicing the need for more stimulus
  • Why the US stock market will crash before the bond market does
  • The key metrics to watch closely as this story unfolds
  • Why higher prices AND higher employment are on the way
AquariusLuck1's picture

Gold is the Safehaven, Bonds are the Bagholders

Just wrote this Article and saw some traffic coming from this site, and realized I haven't been here in a while.  This is a premier site so I will be in touch with this forum more often now that I see the new information i want to learn upon it.

pinecarr's picture

The Fed Selling Put Options On Treasury Bonds to Drive Down Yields?

Eric deCarobonnel, from, has posted an interesting video, "FRAUD: Federal Reserve Is Selling Put Options On Treasury Bonds to Drive Down Yields", at : . 

Erik T.'s picture

The definitive Inflate-away vs. Default [on the Federal debt] thread

It occurs to me that a key in developing one's understanding of economic trends is to figure out what the real key issues are, then focus on them. To wit, the question of Inflation vs. Deflation has been critical for a few years, but only recently have people come to really focus their attention on understanding the factors that play into determining whether we'll see an Inflationary or Deflationary outcome.

presidentbyamendment's picture

t-bill auction WSJ reportage questions

A couple questions about how the WSJ reports T-bill auctions:

what is "bids at market-clearing yeild accepted"?

Why does it vary so widely?

Why do some reports not include "[foreign] bids accepted non-competitively"?


The Shell Game - How the Federal Reserve is Monetizing Debt

Executive Summary

  • The Federal Reserve and the federal government are attempting to "plug the gap" caused by a slowdown of private credit/debt creation.
  • Non-US demand for the dollar must remain high, or the dollar will fall.
  • Demand for US assets is in negative territory for 2009
  • The TIC report and Federal Reserve Custody Account are reviewed and compared
  • The Federal Reserve has effectively been monetizing US government debt by cleverly enabling foreign central banks to swap their Agency debt for Treasury debt.
  • The shell game that the Fed is currently playing obscures the fact that money is being printed out of thin air and used to buy US government debt.

The Federal Reserve is monetizing US Treasury debt and is doing so openly, both through its $300 billion commitment to buy Treasuries and by engaging in a sleight of hand maneuver that would make a street hustler blush. 

This report will wade through some technical details in order to illuminate a complicated issue, but you should take the time to learn about this because it is essential to understanding what the future may hold.

One of the most important questions of the day concerns how the value of the dollar will fare in the coming months and years. If you are working for a wage, it is essential to know whether you should save or spend that money. If you have assets to protect, where you place those monies is vitally important and could make the difference between a relatively pleasant future and a difficult one.

There are three major tripwires out there, any of which could rather suddenly change the game, if triggered. One is a sudden rush into material goods and commodities, occurring if (or when) the truly wealthy ever catch on that paper wealth is a doomed concept. A second would occur if (when) the largest and most dangerous bubble remaining, government debt, finally bursts. And the third concerns the dollar itself.

In this report, we will explore the relationship between those last two tripwires, government debt and the dollar. » Read more

Quercus bicolor's picture

Treasury Rates Heading Up

Has anyone been keeping up on what's happening in the Treasury market lately?  I notice interest rates on the 10 year bond have been heading back up to nearly 3% since April 1 in a way that is doesn't seem justified given the moves in the stock market.  Or is everyone selling gold to buy treasuries?


Erik T.'s picture

Revisiting the short long-bond trade

Many readers of this site including myself have followed Chris Martenson's advice (in a recent subscriber-only Martenson report) and hold short positions against long-dated treasury bonds. Clearly, the world changed in a dramatic way this past week, when the Fed pushed the Fire button on Quantative Easing, announcing its intention to monetize debt by buying $300bn of long-dated treasuries. The purpose of this thread is to revisit the rationale for the short long-bond trade (noting that many pros covered their shorts on Wednesday's news).

Erik T.'s picture

Jimmy Rogers, Helicopter Ben, and the short long-bond trade

It's well known that famous private investor Jim Rogers was shorting long treasury bonds. Perhaps he had been reading the Martenson reports? But it has now been widely reported that Rogers covered his shorts after Bernanke made some statements about the Fed possibly buying treasuries. I heard Rogers use the words " I had to cover my shorts because of the Fed thing" when asked about this trade in an interview I found thanks to Davos' daily digest.