stocks

Insider

Hoping For A Market Crash

If we inflate much higher, the fall is likely to kill us
Thursday, July 28, 2016, 1:32 AM

We desperately need to have new national and global conversations about everything from how we’ll feed everyone in 2050, to developing a coherent sustainable energy policy, to the fact that each year is hotter than the year before, to the idea that we’re living with a soul crushing sense of scarcity in a world of abundance.

There’s lots that needs addressing, and the process should begin with letting go of the old narrative so that we can make space for assembling the new one. » Read more

Podcast

Grant Williams: The Rising Danger Of A Bidless Market

We risk a future of flash crashes as liquidity dries up
Sunday, July 17, 2016, 12:18 PM

Grant Williams, veteran portfolio and strategy advisor, as well as proprietor of the economic blog Things That Make You Go Hmmm returns to the podcast this week to discuss his great concern about the liquidity risk underlying financial markets long-addicted to central bank rescue stimulus. » Read more

Blog

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The Great Market Tide Has Now Shifted To Risk-Off Assets

A global sea-change in risk appetite & sentiment
Friday, July 8, 2016, 3:03 PM

In the conventional investment perspective, risk-on assets (i.e. investments with higher risks and higher potential returns) such as stocks are on a see-saw with risk-off assets (investments with lower returns and lower risk, such as Treasury bonds). When risk appetites are high, institutional managers and speculators move money into stocks and high-yield junk bonds, and move money out of safe-haven assets such as gold and U.S. Treasuries.

But recently, markets are no longer following this convention. Safe haven assets such as precious metals and Treasuries are soaring at the same time that stock markets bounced strongly off the post-Brexit lows.

Risk-on assets (stocks) rising at the same time as safe-haven assets is akin to dogs marrying cats and living happily ever after. 

What the heck is going on? » Read more

Insider

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Investing For Crisis

The future of stocks, gold & safe havens
Friday, July 8, 2016, 3:03 PM

Executive Summary

  • Which coming developments we can predict with certainty
  • Why the next crisis won't be like 2008
  • Why what worked post-2008 won't work this time
  • Where stocks and gold are headed
  • Where to find safe haven for your investment capital

If you have not yet read The Great Market Tide Has Now Shifted To Risk-Off Assets, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part 1, we reviewed the market’s risk-on, risk-off gyrations and laid out the case for long-term declines in confidence, political stability and profits.  What does this new era of uncertainty mean for individual investors?

What’s Predictable?

We can start by asking—is there anything we can predict with any certainty?

I think we can very confidently predict that future central bank monetary policies will fail to generate sustainable growth or fix what’s broken in the global financial system.

I think we can predict that uncertainty will only increase with time rather than decrease. This rise of uncertainty will predictably lower the attractiveness of risk-on assets, other than as short-term speculative bets after some central banker issues yet another “whatever it takes” proclamation.

It’s also a pretty good bet that if central banks and states continue expanding credit/money that isn’t matched by a corresponding expansion of goods and services, the purchasing power of those currencies will decline.

We can very confidently predict that the authorities will continue to do more of what has failed spectacularly until they are removed from power or the system breaks down.

We can predict with some confidence that issuing more debt will provide little productive results.

I also think we can hazard a guess that the next financial crisis will be of a different sort than the 2008-09 Global Financial Meltdown.

Just as generals prepare to fight the last war, with predictably dismal results (unless the exact same war is replayed, which rarely seems to happen), central bankers are fully prepared to stave off a crisis like the one in 2008: a financial crisis that emerges from leveraged bets going bad in money-center investment banks.

My basic presumption is... » Read more

Blog

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Fortunes Will Be Made & Lost When Capital Flees To Safety

As safe havens are tiny markets
Friday, June 24, 2016, 4:46 PM

Little did I realize when creating the short video below how prescient it would quickly become in the wake of last night's Brexit vote...

It's message is simple: there's a preponderance of data that shows the world's major asset markets are dangerously overvalued. And when these asset bubbles start to burst, the 'save haven' markets that investment capital will try to flee to are ridiculously small. Investors who do not start moving their capital in advance of crisis will be forced to pay much higher prices for safety -- or may find they can't get into these markets at any price. » Read more

Podcast

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Rana Foroohar: How Wall Street Is Strangling The Economy

And things are now at the breaking point
Sunday, June 12, 2016, 2:40 PM

This week, Chris interviews Time Magazine assistant managing editor and economic columnist Rana Foroohar about the findings within her new book Makers and Takers: The Rise of Finance and the Fall of American Business.

Eight years on from the biggest market meltdown since the Great Depression, the key lessons of the crisis of 2008 still remain unlearned — and our financial system is just as vulnerable as ever. Many of us know that our government failed to fix the banking system after the subprime mortgage crisis. But what few of us realize is how the misguided financial practices and philosophies that nearly toppled the global financial system have come to infiltrate all American businesses, putting us on a collision course for another cataclysmic meltdown. » Read more

Blog

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Chaos & Volatility On The Rise

The systems that support us are breaking down
Friday, May 6, 2016, 8:01 PM

No, that’s not a ‘click bait’ sensationalist article title. Things are getting ‘weird’ out there if you’re trying to be polite, and downright chaotic if you are being blunt.  Everywhere we look, we see signs that the systems that support us are breaking down. 

All of these are signs that the status quo has failed and continues to fail us. But the form of power expressed by our so-called ‘leaders’ today seems nearly incapable of healthy introspection coupled to correct action; preferring instead to do more of the same things that got us into this mess in the first place. » Read more

Podcast

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Eric Hunsader: The Financial System is 'Absolutely, Positively Rigged'

And the abuses are getting worse, not better
Monday, April 18, 2016, 8:36 PM

Eric Hunsader, founder of Nanex, has been at the vanguard of warning about the dangers and the rampant fraud that the rise of high-frequency trading (HFT) algorithims have let loose in today's financial markets.

While he usually feels like a lone voice in a world happy to deceive itself, he was shocked to receive a $750,000 whistleblower award from the SEC for his efforts. He's been sadly less shocked to see that since the award was publicly announced, the abuses he reported have only become more extreme and frequent. » Read more

Insider

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Why I Went A Little More Short Today

The list making me nervous is growing fast
Monday, April 11, 2016, 10:26 PM

I've been slowly layering into a short position against the US S&P 500 stock market. At this rate, I plan to be 80% short in my trading and retirement accounts by the end of May. You know “Sell in May and go away.” I am now at 45%.

That’s my general strategy here. 

My reasons for building up this short position are many.  Here are a few of them. » Read more

Insider

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Off The Cuff: The Great Retirement Con

Why long-term investment returns will be elusive from here
Friday, March 25, 2016, 9:48 AM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Dan Amerman discuss:

  • Over-Complacency
    • The market has basically ignored the Brussels attacks
  • The Great Retirement Con
    • Why long-term investment returns will be elusive from here
  • Good-bye Future Gains
    • Future profits have already been pulled into today's stock prices
  • Disappearing Dividends
    • The largest source of wealth creation is nowhere to be found

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today. » Read more