Markets

Podcast

Grant Williams: The Rising Danger Of A Bidless Market

We risk a future of flash crashes as liquidity dries up
Sunday, July 17, 2016, 12:18 PM

Grant Williams, veteran portfolio and strategy advisor, as well as proprietor of the economic blog Things That Make You Go Hmmm returns to the podcast this week to discuss his great concern about the liquidity risk underlying financial markets long-addicted to central bank rescue stimulus. » Read more

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The Great Market Tide Has Now Shifted To Risk-Off Assets

A global sea-change in risk appetite & sentiment
Friday, July 8, 2016, 3:03 PM

In the conventional investment perspective, risk-on assets (i.e. investments with higher risks and higher potential returns) such as stocks are on a see-saw with risk-off assets (investments with lower returns and lower risk, such as Treasury bonds). When risk appetites are high, institutional managers and speculators move money into stocks and high-yield junk bonds, and move money out of safe-haven assets such as gold and U.S. Treasuries.

But recently, markets are no longer following this convention. Safe haven assets such as precious metals and Treasuries are soaring at the same time that stock markets bounced strongly off the post-Brexit lows.

Risk-on assets (stocks) rising at the same time as safe-haven assets is akin to dogs marrying cats and living happily ever after. 

What the heck is going on? » Read more

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Investing For Crisis

The future of stocks, gold & safe havens
Friday, July 8, 2016, 3:03 PM

Executive Summary

  • Which coming developments we can predict with certainty
  • Why the next crisis won't be like 2008
  • Why what worked post-2008 won't work this time
  • Where stocks and gold are headed
  • Where to find safe haven for your investment capital

If you have not yet read The Great Market Tide Has Now Shifted To Risk-Off Assets, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part 1, we reviewed the market’s risk-on, risk-off gyrations and laid out the case for long-term declines in confidence, political stability and profits.  What does this new era of uncertainty mean for individual investors?

What’s Predictable?

We can start by asking—is there anything we can predict with any certainty?

I think we can very confidently predict that future central bank monetary policies will fail to generate sustainable growth or fix what’s broken in the global financial system.

I think we can predict that uncertainty will only increase with time rather than decrease. This rise of uncertainty will predictably lower the attractiveness of risk-on assets, other than as short-term speculative bets after some central banker issues yet another “whatever it takes” proclamation.

It’s also a pretty good bet that if central banks and states continue expanding credit/money that isn’t matched by a corresponding expansion of goods and services, the purchasing power of those currencies will decline.

We can very confidently predict that the authorities will continue to do more of what has failed spectacularly until they are removed from power or the system breaks down.

We can predict with some confidence that issuing more debt will provide little productive results.

I also think we can hazard a guess that the next financial crisis will be of a different sort than the 2008-09 Global Financial Meltdown.

Just as generals prepare to fight the last war, with predictably dismal results (unless the exact same war is replayed, which rarely seems to happen), central bankers are fully prepared to stave off a crisis like the one in 2008: a financial crisis that emerges from leveraged bets going bad in money-center investment banks.

My basic presumption is... » Read more

Insider

Off The Cuff: Something Crazy Is Getting Ready To Happen

The next major crisis is set to blow
Thursday, July 7, 2016, 4:45 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and John Rubino discuss:

  • The FBI Findings Regarding Clinton's Emails
    • It really does seem there's a different set of rules for the privileged
  • Something Crazy Is Getting Ready To Happen
    • Why the next major crisis is set to blow
  • Watch The Bank Stocks
    • When they've dropped this far, you know there's trouble
  • The New Bull Market For Gold & Silver
    • Many mining stock are up 300-500%

Wow, so much ground to cover this week. And Chris and John do a great job of covering as much as they can. What does the FBI's hands-off approach to Clinton say about the fairness of rule of law in today's society? What systemic fault lines has Brexit opened for the EU, as well as the rest of the world? Why is the banking system suddenly looking so sick? What does the recent surge in precious metals portend?

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today. » Read more

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Chaos & Volatility On The Rise

The systems that support us are breaking down
Friday, May 6, 2016, 8:01 PM

No, that’s not a ‘click bait’ sensationalist article title. Things are getting ‘weird’ out there if you’re trying to be polite, and downright chaotic if you are being blunt.  Everywhere we look, we see signs that the systems that support us are breaking down. 

All of these are signs that the status quo has failed and continues to fail us. But the form of power expressed by our so-called ‘leaders’ today seems nearly incapable of healthy introspection coupled to correct action; preferring instead to do more of the same things that got us into this mess in the first place. » Read more

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Off The Cuff: Are We Entering A New Bull Market For Gold?

Likely, though risk of a short term pull-back is high
Friday, March 11, 2016, 12:30 AM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and John Rubino discuss:

  •  Has A New Bull Market In Gold Begun?
    • Maybe, though a short term pull-back is likely
  • Has Oil Bottomed?
    • Much harder to tell
  • Electric Cars
    • How long may it really take for them to reach mainstream penetration?
  • How Bad Will The Next Market Crash Be?
    • Very bad. This next one's for all the marbles.
Insider

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ALERT: Markets In Breakdown

Time to take emergency funds out of the banking system
Thursday, February 11, 2016, 1:47 PM

This is a formal ALERT.

We issue those very sparingly here at Peak Prosperity. We only issue them when world events have gotten to the point that we are personally taking new actions to shore up our preparations.

2016 is fast proving that the tranquility the world has enjoyed from 2010 up to now has been false; that the problems we face were merely temporarily papered-over by central planners, not resolved. That tranquility is now over. Prepare for more turbulent times. » Read more

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Off The Cuff: The Need For Solutions

Enough with the problem, what should we do?
Friday, January 29, 2016, 2:38 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and David Morgan discuss:

  • How We Got Into This Mess
    • The bad polices that led to our current state of mal-investment
  • The Need For Solutions
    • Enough with the problem, what should we do?
  • Why Things Can Get Worse Quickly From Here
    • A chain-reaction of bursting bubbles
  • The Future For Silver
    • Where to next for the grey metal?
Podcast

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New Harbor: A Time For Staying Out Of Harms Way

Preserving your financial capital
Sunday, January 24, 2016, 1:16 PM

Given the brutal start to the markets in the first three weeks of 2016, we thought it a good time to check in with the team at New Harbor Financial. We have had them on our podcast periodically over the past years as the market churned to ever new highs, and have always appreciated their skepticism of these liquidity-driven ""markets"" as well as their unwavering commitment to risk management should the party in stocks end suddenly.

So, how is their risk-managed approach faring now that the S&P 500 has suddenly dropped 8% since Christmas? Quite well. Their general portfolio is flat for the year so far -- evidence that caution, prudence and hedging can indeed preserve capital during market downdrafts.

We've invited the New Harbor team back on this week to hear their latest assessment on the markets, as well as how they're approaching their portfolio positioning moving forward. » Read more

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Off The Cuff: It's Beginning To Look A Lot Like 2008

Liquidity is drying up & the banks are weakening fast
Thursday, January 21, 2016, 3:16 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and John Rubino discuss:

  • It's Looking Like 2008 All Over Again
    • Liquidity is drying up & the banks are weakening fast
  • Oil At The Epicenter
    • The ripple effect of the losses will be wider than anyone expects
  • Financial Sector Leading The Way Down
    • The banks are getting hammered for their loan exposure
  • Gold Set To Shine Again
    • Will 2016 finally see a safety-driven rebound?