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New Harbor: A Time For Staying Out Of Harms Way

Preserving your financial capital
Sunday, January 24, 2016, 12:16 PM

Given the brutal start to the markets in the first three weeks of 2016, we thought it a good time to check in with the team at New Harbor Financial. We have had them on our podcast periodically over the past years as the market churned to ever new highs, and have always appreciated their skepticism of these liquidity-driven ""markets"" as well as their unwavering commitment to risk management should the party in stocks end suddenly.

So, how is their risk-managed approach faring now that the S&P 500 has suddenly dropped 8% since Christmas? Quite well. Their general portfolio is flat for the year so far -- evidence that caution, prudence and hedging can indeed preserve capital during market downdrafts.

We've invited the New Harbor team back on this week to hear their latest assessment on the markets, as well as how they're approaching their portfolio positioning moving forward. » Read more

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The Deflation Monster Has Arrived

And it sure looks angry
Friday, January 15, 2016, 7:53 PM

As we’ve been warning for quite a while (too long for my taste): the world’s grand experiment with debt has come to an end. And it’s now unraveling.

Just in the two weeks since the start of 2016, the US equity markets are down almost 10%. Their worst start to the year in history. Many other markets across the world are suffering worse.

If you watched stock prices today, you likely had flashbacks to the financial crisis of 2008. At one point the Dow was down over 500 points, the S&P cracked below key support at 1,900, and the price of oil dropped below $30/barrel. Scared investors are wondering:  What the heck is happening? Many are also fearfully asking: Are we re-entering another crisis? » Read more

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Why This Next Crisis Will Be Worse Than 2008

And what you can do to prepare
Friday, January 15, 2016, 7:53 PM

Executive Summary

  • There are too many signs of deflation to deny it's winning the day
  • Why China's weakening will accelerate the global economy's decent
  • Why this next crisis will be worse than 2008
  • What will it look like if things really get out of control (how bad could things get?)
  • The best investments to be making now, before the rout

If you have not yet read The Deflation Monster Has Arrived, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Too Many Warning Signs To Talk About

The deflationary monster is here and there are almost too many warning signs to list, let alone fully describe.

So I’ll just list and link them…you can follow up on the details if you want, it’s the ‘general vibe’ I want to get across.

Here are the signs of a weak economy that we are dealing with:

The pattern here is one of rapidly slowing economic activity and mounting pain starting “from the outside in” as emerging markets and the poor people within the core countries bear the brunt at first. Things always get rolling to the downside starting with the weakest, peripheral elements first.

Copper and oil are providing very clear signs that economic activity is not just slow, but in rapid retreat. Wal-Mart tells us that its shoppers are having trouble. The fresh all-time lows in a variety of currencies, plus massive weakness in others, is telling us that the virtuous portion of the liquidity cycle that the Fed, et al., unleashed on the world has entered the vicious part of the cycle.

The pain will spread to the center with increasing speed. The main question is if the authorities can stop that before the momentum becomes too great to halt? And what will happen if they cannot?

The answer to that is... » Read more

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David Collum: The Next Recession Will Be A Barn-Burner

With very few places for capital to hide
Saturday, December 26, 2015, 8:05 PM

For those who enjoyed his encyclopedic 2015: Year In Review, this week we spend an hour with David Collum to ask: After processing through all of that information, what do you think the future is most likely to bring?

Perhaps it comes as little surprise that he sees the global economy headed back down into recession, one that will be deeper and more damaging than the 2008 crisis. » Read more

Podcast

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Dan Amerman: Financial Repression & The New Interest Rate Hike

You have to understand one to make sense of the other
Sunday, December 20, 2015, 4:44 PM

Financial repression authority Daniel Amerman returns this week to discuss the ramifications of the Federal Reserve's first interest rate hike in nearly a decade. » Read more

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Grant Williams: The End Of The Road

The Fed is finally boxed in
Tuesday, December 15, 2015, 9:39 AM

Grant Williams returns this week to set the context for this week's FOMC meeting, where the Federal Reserve is widely expected to hike interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade. To say he is very skeptical of the Fed's ability to continue to control market forces much longer is a gross understatement. » Read more

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Pop! It’s Time.

The end of the (most recent) bubble era is here
Monday, December 14, 2015, 12:51 AM

The Federal Reserve is a serial bubble blower; and it has done it again. As we’ve been saying for a long time (too long, it seems), when this bubble comes apart, massive disruption and economic pain will follow.

Based on recent events, it seems that the time has finally arrived to say: This is it.

It’s done. Put a fork in it. It’s over. » Read more

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The Screaming Fundamentals For Owning Gold

We're at a moment of historic opportunity
Tuesday, December 8, 2015, 11:53 AM

Every year or two we update this report, which lays out the investment thesis for gold. Here is this year's version.

Silver is touched upon only as necessary; as a separate report of equal scope is required for that precious metal.

Gold is one of the few investments that every investor should have in their portfolio. We are now at the dangerous end-game period of a very bold but very reckless & disappointing experiment with the world's fiat (unbacked) currencies. If this experiment fails -- and we observe it's in the process of failing -- gold will provide one of the best forms of wealth insurance. But like all insurance products, it only works if you buy it before you need to rely on it. » Read more

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Off The Cuff: Deploy The Flying Pigs!

All rationality has left the markets
Monday, October 26, 2015, 4:06 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Mish discuss:

  • Looks Like We'll Need A Bigger Bazooka
    • Draghi hints at more QE
  • The Schizophrenic Fed
    • Exploring both raising & lowering rates
  • No Rationality Left
    • Depression-level results RAISES stocks?
  • Banning Physical Cash
    • Still the plan of the central bank cartel

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today. » Read more

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Has The Market Trend Shifted From Bull To Bear?

Why the recent volatility may mark a secular shift
Friday, October 23, 2015, 3:12 PM

Emotions are running high for the investment community in the wake of recent market volatility. Up until August, we had been in the third longest period in market history without a 10% correction. Since then, stock indices sold off hard, only to bounce once again over the past two weeks of trading.

And certainly the truth is….No one knows. Especially in today’s world where global central banks can concoct further QE/monetary schemes at the drop of a hat.  Let’s face it, at this point the global central banks are all in. In fact, beyond all in. Without question, the US Fed knows that if equities fall, they lose the high end consumer. (Wal-Mart shoppers have already long been lost)  » Read more