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Off The Cuff: There Is No 'Market' Anymore, Only Manipulation

The big players push prices around at will
Saturday, August 27, 2016, 6:19 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and John Rubino discuss:

  • There Is No 'Market' Anymore
    • Prices are fully manipulated these days
  • Missing Alpha
    • Since it's only liquidity that matters, portfolio managers are feeling the pressure
  • Malinvestment
    • What you get with too much cheap money
  • The Feds Facebook Fiasco
    • The public is waking up to the ills of central banking

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today. » Read more

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The Great Market Tide Has Now Shifted To Risk-Off Assets

A global sea-change in risk appetite & sentiment
Friday, July 8, 2016, 3:03 PM

In the conventional investment perspective, risk-on assets (i.e. investments with higher risks and higher potential returns) such as stocks are on a see-saw with risk-off assets (investments with lower returns and lower risk, such as Treasury bonds). When risk appetites are high, institutional managers and speculators move money into stocks and high-yield junk bonds, and move money out of safe-haven assets such as gold and U.S. Treasuries.

But recently, markets are no longer following this convention. Safe haven assets such as precious metals and Treasuries are soaring at the same time that stock markets bounced strongly off the post-Brexit lows.

Risk-on assets (stocks) rising at the same time as safe-haven assets is akin to dogs marrying cats and living happily ever after. 

What the heck is going on? » Read more

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The Approaching Moment Of Market Capitulation

Can you feel it?
Wednesday, June 15, 2016, 9:42 PM

Today, on Wednesday June 15th, the Fed made its latest 'non-decision' and did not raise interest rates. The stock market first rose but then tumbled, likely indicating that the Fed's magic is all used up. As we all know, that’s about the only thing that’s been keeping the stock market levitated of late.

I’m on record as saying that not only would the Fed not raise rates this meeting, but that their next move, when it arrives, will be to lower rates; not raise them.

Got that? Down; not up. » Read more

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Why The Fed’s Efforts Will End Badly

We've been down this road before. Quite recently, in fact
Wednesday, June 1, 2016, 2:26 PM

It’s no secret that I've taken the contrarian position for seven long (and frequently frustrating) years.

Look, we’ve been down this road before, and the sheer stupidity of our current situation is that we’ve been down it recently enough to know better.  It worked out poorly for us in 2000, again in 2008, and will soon enough again. That's why I'm currently short the US stock market and plan to increase that short position as time goes on.

I'm quite familiar with, and even sympathetic to, the idea that the central banks will not... » Read more

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Off The Cuff: Elusive Earnings

Profits vanish as as the next recession encroaches
Wednesday, May 4, 2016, 10:55 AM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and John Rubino discuss:

  • Elusive Earnings
    • Corporate profits are vaporizing across all sectors
  • Non-GAAP Crap
    • Companies are increasingly contorting their books to look more solvent than they are
  • The Ramifications Of Distorting Price Signals
    • Malinvestment the world 'round
  • Inflate Or Die
    • Why helicopter money is coming
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Off The Cuff: The Fed's Frenzy Of Emergency Meetings

Are things more dire than we're being told?
Friday, April 22, 2016, 1:34 AM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Mish Shedlock discuss:

  • Part Time Nation
    • Our job market has been hollowed out
  • Emergency Fed Meetings
    • What exactly is going on behind the scenes?
  • Lower Returns & Lower Prices
    • Pretty much what we have to look forward to from these markets
  • Chinese Capital Flight
    • Driving so much of today's overvaluations
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Why I’m Now Short The US Equity Markets

After 7 long years of waiting...
Tuesday, March 1, 2016, 12:55 AM

In the interests of full disclosure and of keeping you abreast of my personal investment actions, I entered a short position on Friday for the first time since 2009. Yes, it’s been seven years.

The equity markets have been all but bulletproof for 6 years, but I think that phase has ended and we’re in for a rough ride from here on out.  At least until stocks fall far enough for the central banks to have another go at attempting to print up prosperity.

First, I think that the stock rally of late is overdone and there’s more downside to come.  I have a whole host of supporting reasons based on credit markets and global trade, but we’ll get... » Read more

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Steen Jakobsen: The End Of The Debt Cycle

As transformational as the fall of the Berlin Wall
Sunday, February 21, 2016, 7:26 PM

As we've been watching closely, something is wrong with the big banks. Their shares have lost 25-33% of their market value since the beginning of the year. What's going on?

The turmoil seems greatest in Europe, where bank shares have fallen the hardest, and negative interest rates have appeared with increasingly frequency across member countries.

To make sense of it all, we've invited Steen Jakobsen back on, Chief Investment Officer of Saxo Bank, who can provide an eyes-on-the-ground perspective on the European banking system from his location in Copenhagen. » Read more

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Off The Cuff: The Coming Capital Controls

Dan Amerman lists the many ways we will get fleeced
Friday, February 19, 2016, 5:52 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Daniel Amerman discuss:

  • The Wide Extent Of Central Bank Intervention
    • And the resulting Franken""markets""
  • The Coming Era Of Capital Controls
    • The war on our money is just getting started
  • Don't Underestimate The Incompetence Of Our Leaders
    • Central banks are more stupid than evil
  • Political Risk To The Markets Is Greater Than We Realize
    • It's the trigger everyone is discounting
Podcast

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New Harbor: A Time For Staying Out Of Harms Way

Preserving your financial capital
Sunday, January 24, 2016, 1:16 PM

Given the brutal start to the markets in the first three weeks of 2016, we thought it a good time to check in with the team at New Harbor Financial. We have had them on our podcast periodically over the past years as the market churned to ever new highs, and have always appreciated their skepticism of these liquidity-driven ""markets"" as well as their unwavering commitment to risk management should the party in stocks end suddenly.

So, how is their risk-managed approach faring now that the S&P 500 has suddenly dropped 8% since Christmas? Quite well. Their general portfolio is flat for the year so far -- evidence that caution, prudence and hedging can indeed preserve capital during market downdrafts.

We've invited the New Harbor team back on this week to hear their latest assessment on the markets, as well as how they're approaching their portfolio positioning moving forward. » Read more