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The Great Market Tide Has Now Shifted To Risk-Off Assets

A global sea-change in risk appetite & sentiment
Friday, July 8, 2016, 3:03 PM

In the conventional investment perspective, risk-on assets (i.e. investments with higher risks and higher potential returns) such as stocks are on a see-saw with risk-off assets (investments with lower returns and lower risk, such as Treasury bonds). When risk appetites are high, institutional managers and speculators move money into stocks and high-yield junk bonds, and move money out of safe-haven assets such as gold and U.S. Treasuries.

But recently, markets are no longer following this convention. Safe haven assets such as precious metals and Treasuries are soaring at the same time that stock markets bounced strongly off the post-Brexit lows.

Risk-on assets (stocks) rising at the same time as safe-haven assets is akin to dogs marrying cats and living happily ever after. 

What the heck is going on? » Read more

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Off The Cuff: Look Out Below!

We're on the cusp of major asset deflation
Thursday, September 24, 2015, 5:15 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Mish Shedlock discuss:

  • The Periphery Is Collapsing Fast
    • Emerging market currencies are falling hard vs the US dollar
  • China Is Running Off The Rails
    • We're witnessing a bust in progress
  • Europe's Black Swan Has Landed
    • A migrant crisis no one saw coming this quickly
  • The US Is Sliding Back Into Recession
    • The data is bad and getting worse
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Off The Cuff: The Fault-Ridden Fed

Worrying about all the wrong things
Thursday, July 30, 2015, 6:25 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Mike "Mish" Shedlock discuss:

  • The Fed's Faulty Fears
    • The people running it are concerned about the wrong things
  • Are We At A Market Top?
    • Hard to call it, but it sure feel so
  • Europe's Woes Are Worsening
    • Capital is fleeing, while debts grow
  • Our ""Markets"
    • Nobody but central banks and bots buying these days
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Greece: Where To From Here?

Amidst the turmoil, some hard predictions can be made
Monday, July 6, 2015, 10:23 PM

It’s pretty hard keeping up with the rapid-fire developments in Greece. Things change every hour it seems; rumors abound and confusion runs deep.

At this point, it all depends on what Greece is prepared to accept and what the EU is prepared to offer. So from here, we could see anything from a full financial pardon from the EU (very unlikely) to a full Greek exit (still quite possible). » Read more

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Is It Time To Prepare For War?

A serious question, given the escalating geopolitical risk
Tuesday, March 10, 2015, 12:48 AM

I am seriously entertaining preparing for war, and as I’ve written before, the nature of this next war could involve everything from trade battles, to cyber attacks, to financial system assaults,  a downing of the US electrical grid, to an actual shooting war  -- perhaps one that escalates to a nuclear exchange.

When things are this obviously crazy, anything is possible. » Read more

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Time To Toss The Playbook

In uncharted territory, flexibility & open thinking are key
Wednesday, February 25, 2015, 10:07 AM

Just when you thought the world could not spin much faster, global monetary events in 2015 have picked up speed. 

Buckle up. » Read more

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Netfalls - Remy Musser/Shuttestock

Greece Exposes The Global Economy's Achilles Heel

Countries that can't repay their debts -- won't
Thursday, February 5, 2015, 4:54 PM

The new Greek political party, known as Syriza, the Coalition of the Radical Left, has done the unthinkable: they've dared to speak the truth.

Such honest assessments are not supposed to be uttered in politics, no matter how true they may be. And so, as you can imagine, the machinery of the defenders of the status quo is in quite a lather over the whole affair. And it's doing everything it can to minimize and marginalize the new Greek government. » Read more

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Off The Cuff: An Important Shoe Just Dropped In Europe

The Greek election is a clear rejection of the status quo
Wednesday, January 28, 2015, 9:11 PM

In this week's Off the Cuff podcast, Chris and Alasdair Macleod discuss:

  • Greece: What Will The Syriza Win Bring?
    • A rejection of kow-towing to the Troika
  • Stresses Across The Eurozone
    • Running out ways to delay the inevitable
  • Gold & Inflation
    • Rising prices for both are likely from here
  • Slowing Global Growth
    • But a deflationary wave may need to sweep the globe first
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Europe's Next Energy Crisis Is Now Assured

China takes more & more of the gas that once went to Europe
Tuesday, November 11, 2014, 12:25 AM

Today, Russia inked a second blockbuster deal with China that will starve Europe for natural gas in just a few short years. It's now increasingly clear that 2018 will mark the beginning of the end for any hopes Europe had of returning to robust economic growth.

It was by far the biggest news of the day. While it did make headlines, you might have missed it because not much was made of the affair beyond the announcement.  The story came and went as if Russia has oodles of natural gas (NG) to send to China.

It doesn't. And the supplies it has now contracted to send to China will be pulled from supplies that currently go to Europe. » Read more

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Off the Cuff: Market Mayhem

After the recent carnage, what's next?
Thursday, October 16, 2014, 9:12 PM

In this week's Off the Cuff podcast, Chris and Alasdair MacLeod discuss:

  • The Market Meltdown
    • What the heck just happened?
  • The Next Round of Bailouts
    • If you hate the problem, wait till you see the solutions
  • Gold
    • Ready for a return to the limelight?
  • Ebola
    • Is the media selling us too much fear?